Kepner Tregoe: Problem Analysis (The Case of the Love Birds)

This paper aims to conduct a problem analysis of the Case of The Love Birds using the
Kepner Tregoe method. The Kepner Tregoe method for problem analysis uses logic and data to
find the root cause of a deviation or problem (Kepner Tregoe, 2020).

Table 1. Kepner Tregoe Analysis - The Case of the Love Birds

Deviation statement: The death of the lovebirds, Romeo and Juliet

Problem Specs Is Is not Distinctions Changes

What (Identity) Lovebirds, Romeo Other lovebirds Romeo and Juliet were They were separated from
and Juliet (i.e. Bianca) subject to the same each other. Romeo was given
environment for a long time Formula C while Juliet was
compared to Bianca given Formula A

Death of Romeo Death of other

and Juliet birds

Where (location) At home, in the Other areas and Juliet was always at home Juliet was transferred to a
new cage cages while Romeo was sent to new cage before Romeo
the hospital sometime
between March 2 and 11

When (timing) Between March Before March 10 After Juliet’s passing,

10, time unknown Romeo was given a new
(Juliet’s death) partner, Bianca
and March 11, 9
pm (Romeo’s
death)

Extent Only the birds Not all birds Died at the service
(magnitude) owned by the manager’s wife’s home
service manager’s
wife

Possible Causes Test for Most Probable Cause

1. The “new” bird cage may be defective, made with toxic 1. Have the “new” birdcage checked by an expert (i.e.
material harmful to birds manufacturer or vet)

2. The bird feed, Formula A and Formula C may be 2. Why didn’t Bianca die as well from eating Formula C?
harmful only to Romeo and Juliet (they may be allergic) Why was there no immediate allergic reaction from Romeo
and Juliet given that they have been consuming the new
feeds for a few days?

3. In their daily routine, the bird feed Formula B must have 3. Why was Romeo the only one advised to be brought to
been slowly killing or harming Romeo and Juliet the hospital for over indulgence, when they had the same
exact routine and feed (Formula B)?
4. Romeo and Juliet were not used to ingesting the new 4. Ask what made the vet think that Formula B was the
feeds since they were used to consuming Formula B. cause of the birds’ overindulgence? Why were they not
showing signs of under indulgence if they were not used to
ingesting the new feeds?

5. The absence/separation of either bird must have been 5. Why did Juliet die earlier than Romeo if both were
making both birds depressed, harming them in the separated from each other? Why was there no notable
process. behavioral change from Juliet when Romeo was sent to the
hospital?

Steps to Validate Most Probable Cause

1. Ask the veterinarian to do a toxicology report and necropsy on the deceased birds to determine the presence of metal
in their system as well as determine the actual cause of death

2. Ask the owner to look at the new cage for chew marks and the shop where the cage was bought to ask about the
material used to build the cage.

3. As a last resort, they may perform an experiment by placing a new bird into the new cage.

Using the Kepner Tregoe method, table 1. was constructed. The deviation was found in
the death of the two love birds (Romeo and Juliet) in contrast to the standard of them staying
healthy. Following the procedure of the Kepner Tregoe analysis, the four dimensions of the
problem namely identity, location, timing, and magnitude were described. For identity, the
deviation was found in the service manager’s wife’s two love birds, Romeo and Juliet. Regarding
location, they both died at home in their new cage. Regarding timing, Juliet died on March 10, a
day before Romeo returned from the hospital. Romeo died March 11, more specifically he died in
between the time he was placed in the new cage for the night and 9 pm. Notably both died once
placed into their new cage. For magnitude, the extent of the problem is the love birds owned by
the service manager’s wife. This was evident in the presence of Bianca who was fed Formula C
(the same as Romeo) and also spent a day in their home. After defining the dimensions of the
problem, the next step is to Formulate possible causes based on the dimensions. Five probable
causes were Formulated but after questioning each one the most probable cause was found to
be the new cage. This was tested against the Formulation of killer questions that aim to invalidate
the listed possible causes. The last step is the verification of the most probable cause. This
enumerates the concrete steps to be taken to verify the most probable causes.

To validate the most probable cause, several studies were examined. Lightfoot and
Yeager (2008) determined the most probable causes of toxicities of pet birds and found that heavy
metal ingestion sourced from zinc coating of metal cages may induce severe sickness or even
sudden death. This phenomenon was dubbed the “New Wire Disease” in the article of Reece,
Dickson, and Burrowes (1986) and future research (Howard, 1992; Puscner & Poppenga, 2009;
Huang & Mayer, 2019) has continually supported the presence, prevalence, and gravity of this
problem in the health of birds. In addition, lead poisoning is also a leading cause of pet bird toxicity
that was found to have caused death (Lightfoot & Yeager, 2008), and this is also another probable
cause of death to look at based on the pet cage. This is why the first step for validation of the
most probable cause concerns a necropsy and the procurement of a toxicology report of the dead
birds. Lightfoot and Yeager (2008) stated that analysis of zinc present in a bird is best done
through examination of tissues in the pancreas, liver, and kidney while analysis of lead presence
can be determined through blood and liver tissue analysis. Additionally, in the case study, the
owners were noted to have put Juliet and Romeo in new cages. Simpson (2020) particularly
mentions the frequent application of zinc to avoid rusting of bird cages which pet owners tend not
to know of the adverse effects of which to birds. He notes a specific methodology of zinc removal
that pet owners should be aware of and should apply even before putting the birds inside. The
owners may not have been aware of such technicalities and the next step in the validation process
concerns the examination of the new birdcage. Lovebirds are also observed to be very aggressive
(Tully, 2009) which may lead to a practice of cage biting.
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