Forecasting

Q.1 Apply simple moving average to forecast the sales for the month of September.
Actual
Month Sales
Jan 24500
Feb 27000
Mar 19950
Apr 26000
May 21200
Jun 18900
Jul 17500
Aug 19000
Sep  
Q.2 A departmental store may find that in a four month period, the best forecast is derived by
using 40 percent of the actual sales for the most recent month, 30 percent of two months
ago,20 percent of three months ago and 10 percent of four months ago. If the actual sales
experience was
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5

100 90 105 95 ?

Q.3 The past data on the load on weaving machines is shown below:

Month Load(Hrs
)

May- ----
2020

June- 585
2020

July- 610
2020

Aug- 675
2020

Sep-2020 750

Oct-2020 860

Nov- 970
2020
 a) Compute the load on the weaving machine center using 5th moving average for the
month of December 2020.
Compute a weighted three months average for December ,2020 where the weights are 0.5 for
the latest month,0.3 and 0.2 for the other months respectively.

Q.4 Ganesh Darshini is known for its specialty item, the Mysore Masala Dosa( MMD).
Estimating the demand for MMD during the evening peak hours (6.00 pm to 8.00 pm) is
crucial.Table below has the data regarding the demand for MMD during the last six weeks.

Week Demand

1 80

2 95

3 75

4 110

5 100

6 90

Use the exponential smoothening to estimate the demand for the next week.

Q.5 The demand for the particular period is given for the last 8 periods. Compute
exponentially smoothed forecast for the periods taking α = 0.1 and 0.3. Which of these
forecast is better.

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Demand 10 18 29 15 30 12 16 8