Estimating the Frequency of Exposure to

Uncertain Hazards: Impact of Wind Conditions on

Concrete Dam Construction
Shu Chen 1; Ya Tian 2; Lianghai Jin 3; and Lei Xiang 4
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Abstract: Due to the narrow construction site, intensive construction, and constant strong winds, some concurrent activities during concrete
dam construction are proven to lead to space conflicts and increase the frequency of exposure to hazards. Despite some valuable contributions,
the current methods for quantifying exposure frequency are still subjective and inadequate for reliable safety evaluation. Therefore, this study
provides a formal approach to identify exposure under dynamic wind loads and to estimate exposure frequency to scrutinize dynamic in-
teractions at construction sites. In this study, first, the force of hazard with wind loads is analyzed to identify the impact of potential hazards
from vertical concrete transport in an undesirable event. Second, combined with the concrete dam construction cycle process and the operat-
ing time characteristics, the probability of hazards and victims concurrently appearing in an overlapping space is calculated to measure the
possibility of disastrous events from the perspective of spatial and temporal attributes. Then, the exposure frequency is expressed using
statistical information on wind conditions, location information on the site layout, and mechanical motion parameters. In contrast to tradi-
tional risk-assessment methods, the proposed model combines the uncertainty of wind and the probability of hazards and victims simulta-
neously appearing in an overlap into a more rigorous safety perspective. Finally, the model’s capability of hazard exposure assessment is
demonstrated and tested by applying it to a case study of a major real-world construction project. The results show that the novel methodology
is able not only to quantify the exposure frequency with the contribution of the influence of strong winds but also to assess the risk of
dam construction projects. Furthermore, this method will provide an important objective and precise evaluation tool for hazard exposure.
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001972. © 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Author keywords: Concrete dam construction; Risk assessment; Exposure frequency; Strong winds’ influence; Overlap.

Introduction As a critical component within the dam construction process,

Hydropower projects have a profound impact on the local commu-
nity compared with that of other general infrastructure engineering
projects in terms of flood control, water supply, shipping, and irri-
gation (Chen et al. 2018; Song et al. 2018). Concrete dams are one
of the most common hydropower engineering projects due to their
significant advantages. For instance, there is no requirement for
special drainage and intake water structures, and concrete dams are
typically more stable than other dams in the event of an accident.
Hence, concrete dams have been widely used for hydropower en-
gineering, especially in large projects such as the Three Gorges,
Baihetan, and Wudongde Dams in China.
1
Associate Professor, College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engi-
neering, China Three Gorges Univ., Yichang, Hubei 443002, China. Email:
chenshu@ctgu.edu.cn
2
Graduate Student, College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engi-
neering, China Three Gorges Univ., Yichang, Hubei 443002, China (cor-
responding author). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8865-8936.
Email: 1832937042@qq.com
3
Associate Professor, College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engi-
neering, China Three Gorges Univ., Yichang, Hubei 443002, China. Email:
16405495@qq.com
4
Graduate Student, College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineer-
ing, China Three Gorges Univ., Yichang, Hubei 443002, China. ORCID:
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4707-7211. Email: 272589244@qq.com
Note. This manuscript was submitted on February 17, 2020; approved
on August 24, 2020; published online on December 2, 2020. Discussion
period open until May 2, 2021; separate discussions must be submitted for
individual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Construction En-
gineering and Management, © ASCE, ISSN 0733-9364.
the safety hazard posed by concrete dam construction has been
noted to be significantly greater than that present in other construc-
tion environments (Zheng et al. 2018). This increased risk is often a
result of the narrow site, dense layout, intensive construction, and
increased pressure due to tightened schedules. Consequently, a
large number of activities must be arranged to take place concur-
rently in a limited space during dam construction (Jia et al. 2012).
Such concurrent activities often lead to space conflicts and easily
interfere with each other when parallel activities simultaneously oc-
cupy the same space (Riley and Sanvido 1995). Moreover, in recent
years, hydropower projects in China are mostly located in hot and
dry valleys that suffer from frequent strong winds.
With the larger scale and height of concrete dams, space con-
flicts are more sensitive to the effect of wind due to the enlargement
of the hazard impact space. Prior studies have indicated that such
space conflicts may lead to productivity losses (Akinci et al. 2002),
additional protective works (Song and Chua 2005), and most im-
portantly, worksite hazards (Guo 2002). Hence, the pre-emptive
evaluation of hazards and risk during concrete dam construction
is vital to improving safety and preventing unnecessary accidents
from occurring.
One indicator used to evaluate hazards and risk is the estimation
of hazard exposure frequency. Hazard exposure frequency refers to
the probability of a prospective victim being exposed to hazardous
environments over a certain period or timeframe. This probability
reflects the frequency at which a victim is exposed to the hazard in
the undesirable event. Exposure to the hazard, and the consequen-
ces of an accident once it occurs, poses a significant impact on the
safety risk (Jannadi and Almishari 2003; Hinze and Rinker 2008).

© ASCE 04020167-1 J. Constr. Eng. Manage.

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 Thus, a precise assessment of hazard exposure is a necessary and
crucial element for evaluating safety risk (Mitropoulos et al. 2005).
Given the hazardous nature of the construction industry, con-
struction safety is a topic of utmost importance both to industry
and academia. Statistics have shown that 89% of worksite fatalities
in China occur due to safety lapses (Deng et al. 2014). In concrete
dam construction, fatalities are even higher, accounting for 90.47%
of all worksite fatalities, making concrete dam construction the
greatest contributor to this category of safety incidents (Xing
2001). As such, there have been significant recent research efforts
in modeling hazard exposure. The following review classified these
research efforts into three categories:
• Experience-based methods: Some typical methods of safety risk
assessment were developed based on historical injury and fatal-
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ity statistics. The concept of risk was often represented as a
function of several variables, including the product of the like-
lihood of an accident, the level of hazard exposure, and the se-
verity of the consequences of the accident. However, the exact
values of these variables are often difficult to determine, and
safety experts often base these values on their subjective expert
opinions and experience (George 2002). For example, Kinney
and Graham (1985) designed a form for safety evaluators to
score the frequency of exposure to hazardous environments;
Hallowell and Gambatese (2009) conducted 256 worker-hours
of observation and implemented the Delphi method to quantify
exposure frequency and severity; and Dharmapalan et al. (2015)
adopted a survey-analytical research method to quantify the
safety risks associated with specific design features to construc-
tion exposure. These methods are really helpful to exposure
assessment. However, the accuracy of these evaluation methods
typically depends on the professional and personal experience
of the safety experts and group assessments; therefore, the
evaluation results are susceptible to experts’ subjective factors,
such as individual age, work experience and academic qualifi-
cations (Taroun 2014; Chen et al. 2019), which may be inad-
equate for quantitatively and accurately assessing the hazard
exposure (Zheng et al. 2020).
• Location-based methods: An alternative method of estimating
hazard exposure is to use location-based methods. Here, real-
time locations of the construction workforce and equipment
are acquired to assess hazard exposure by various remote locat-
ing and tracking technologies, such as global positioning sys-
tems (Zhang et al. 2015), geographic information systems
(Bansal 2011), positioning sensors (Cheng and Teizer 2013),
radio frequency (Teizer et al. 2010; Marks and Teizer 2013),
ultrawideband technology (Carbonari et al. 2011), and high-
resolution cameras (Bohn and Teizer 2010). Such methods typ-
ically measure the distance between hazards and workers to
assess exposure and provide an alarm to the workers if they
come close to the hazard. Such early-warning systems have
been shown to reduce exposure (Luo et al. 2016; Edrei and
Isaac 2017). Unfortunately, although these methods are excel-
lent for exposure control, a drawback is that they did not seem to
develop pre-emptive safety-management strategies, hence, they
are not typically employed during risk assessment (Pinto et al.
2011).
• Spatial-temporal exposure methods: Construction activities
often occupy the same space at the same time, leading to time-
space conflicts (Akinci et al. 2002). These time-space conflicts
are often defined using the attributes of spatial and temporal di-
mensions; they occur only during certain periods of time (Tao
et al. 2018). The conflicts deteriorate the construction environ-
ment, create chaotic job sites, and result in numerous security
risks (Chua et al. 2010; Zhu et al. 2016). Therefore, site-specific
© ASCE 04020167-2
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temporal (e.g., when and who will be exposed to potential haz-
ards) and spatial (e.g., location of dangerous zones) information
should be integrated to express hazard exposure (Choe and Leite
2017). Rozenfeld et al. (2009) specified exposure probability as
the product of the probabilities of temporal exposure and spatial
exposure, both calculated by considering overlaps between the
hazard that generates the risk and the victim exposed to the risk.
Despite these studies offering valuable methods to estimate the
exposure frequency, the positional relationship between poten-
tial victims and hazards in different situations varies greatly, and
a risk assessment model should be analyzed in detail according
to the actual conditions. Furthermore, for hazard exposure level
assessments to be of practical use, an exposure assessment
model should pay more attention to the influence of strong
winds.
Consequently, to overcome the limitations in existing research,
this study provides a formal approach to explore a quantitative haz-
ard exposure measurement tool for dam construction considering
the influence of strong winds. After hazard and victim processes
have been determined based on the action direction of harmful en-
ergy, the procedure entails three steps: (1) analyze the force of the
hazard with wind force to identify the impact space of potential
hazards in an undesirable event, (2) calculate the probability of
the hazard and victim appearing the overlap in accordance with
the motion patterns of the equipment, and (3) integrate the statis-
tical information of the wind condition, location information of the
site layout, and mechanical motion parameters to express the ex-
posure frequency. Additionally, an examination is made of the us-
ability of the proposed hazard exposure tool that helps construction
managers better mitigate the risks and manage the space.
Proposed Methodology
Due to their flexibility, large working range, and adaptation to com-
plex topographic conditions, cable cranes are widely applied as
transportation equipment during the pouring process of dam con-
struction (Li et al. 2017). Cable cranes transport buckets with con-
crete from a filling platform to any dam block in the work zone.
Once the dam block receives the concrete, spreaders, compactors,
and joint cutters are used to handle the concrete. When the bucket
appears in the upper area of the dam surface, parallel activities si-
multaneously compete for the same space and consequently cause
exposure. If the bucket falls from the cable crane in an undesirable
event, the bucket could affect the construction crews and machines,
potentially damaging the equipment or worse, resulting in the loss
of human lives (Chen et al. 2020). For example, for the processes of
the cable crane transporting concrete and the compactor vibrating
concrete, the bucket poses a significant danger to the compactor in
activities below it.
According to the spatial characteristics of the dam concrete
placement, the horizontal direction of the cable motion is used
as the x-axis, the water flow direction is used as the y-axis, and
the vertical direction is used as the z-axis. The origin is the point
at which the left edge point of the cable platform perpendicularly
intersects the lowest point of the dam bottom. For the x-axis, when
the cable crane conveys a full load, the direction is positive; sim-
ilarly, when the bucket returns with an empty load, it moves in the
negative direction. For the y-axis, taking the Baihetan Hydropower
Station as an example, according to the meteorological statistics of
the dam area from 2012 to 2014, it was found that the wind direc-
tion is mostly a north wind and northerly wind, basically along the
direction of the river, with an average probability of 76.3%; there-
fore, it is assumed that strong winds are in the same direction as the
J. Constr. Eng. Manage.
 Cable crane

Main tower Tail tower

Trolleybus Unloading
Impact space
Loading
bucket Workspace
B
Overlap
A Filling
platform C

Wind direction

D dumping
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Dam
block
1
Slope
2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of concrete dam construction.

river and that the direction along the river is positive (Li 2017). To wind uncertainty is to calculate the statistical characteristics of the
describe the formation of exposure, this paper proposes three basic wind, including wind speed vwind , wind direction, and frequency
concepts: Pwind according to the meteorological data near the dam site over
• Impact space: the hazard from the cable crane can affect the recent historical years.
space range on the whole dam surface; Wind features such as speed and direction notably affect the
• Workspace: the geometry and location of active work elements state of the cable crane, and a detailed analysis of the bucket is
on a certain dam block surface; and depicted in Fig. 2. The bucket runs at Hbucket height and is subjected
• Overlap: the space simultaneously occupied by the impact space to wind load. Regardless of the drag coefficient, exposure coeffi-
and workspace, producing a wide variety of exposures (Fig. 1). cient, and gust response factor, based on the Bernoulli equation,
the relationship among the wind scale, wind speed, wind pressure,
and wind load is given by GB50009 (Chinese Standard 2012a);
Influence of Wind: Uncertain Dynamic Impact Space
GBT28591 (Chinese Standard 2012b) provides the conversion be-
Modeling
tween wind speed and wind scale
A hot and dry valley, generally, is a term for the river-belt zone with
two basic attributes: drying and thermal. These conditions are
mainly distributed on the valley slopes of rivers, such as the Dadu z
and Yalong Rivers (He et al. 2000). Currently, most hydropower
projects under construction and proposed to be built in China are
located in these areas. The climate in these areas causes the airflow
over the mountains to sink and the wind to burn; in addition, the
r
thermal properties of the valley region are uneven, forming a local Filling
circulation, i.e., a valley wind (Ming and Shi 2007). The combined platform h Bucket
(0,0, H bucket ) Fwind
effect of the foehn wind and valley wind is prone to form disastrous
strong winds; these strong winds even result in high-altitude fall
accidents, which can readily lead to a wide range of impact spaces,
extensively increasing the frequency of exposure. Impact Dumping Dam block
However, wind is difficult to accurately forecast in construction space point
projects due to its dynamic nature. On the one hand, the wind speed x
Iy
is closely related to the terrain, seasons, and weather conditions in Ix
the area, which makes the occurrence probability of different strong
winds extremely unpredictable. On the other hand, wind exhibits
certain randomness in both the reverse and smooth water flow, y
although the direction of the strong winds in the dry-hot valley
Fig. 2. Impact of wind on the bucket.
is mostly the same as that of the water flow. A feasible way to depict

© ASCE 04020167-3 J. Constr. Eng. Manage.

J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 2021, 147(2): 04020167

 1 In the concrete pouring process, the workspace refers to the dam
Fwind ¼ wφ ¼ ρv2wind φ ð1Þ
2 block surface being poured. The construction of dam block surface
mainly includes concrete spreading, vibration rolling, cutting, and
where Fwind = wind load; w = wind pressure; ρ = air density; vwind = block surface maintenance. There are a large number of construc-
wind speed; and φ = windward area, φ ¼ 2rh, where r is the radius tion machines simultaneously operating in the workspace (Fig. 3).
of the bucket and h is the physical height of the bucket. Setting the length of the dam block surface as W x and the width as
W y , the workspace can be calculated as follows:

Quantification of the Impact Space under Dynamic SW ¼ W x × W y ð4Þ

Conditions
Impact space, as the spatial attribute of the bucket, is the maximum
envelope space range that the harmful energy (the bucket run on the Quantification of the Overlap Space under Dynamic
cable crane under a certain wind speed) can cover. Due to the dy- Conditions
namic change in the bucket spatial position, the impact space is
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To meet the shorter construction period, the whole dam must be

closely related to the realistic characteristics of cable cranes during
divided into several blocks in a vertical direction, which are further
the concrete dam pouring process. On the basis of the work break-
divided into several block surfaces at different elevations. Each
down structure (WBS) for concrete dam construction, a cable crane
block surface has a set of possible exposures during the concrete
transporting concrete can be processed into a series of cycle proc-
pouring process. When the cable crane transports the bucket with
esses. Specifically, the transit route of the cable crane includes
concrete to a specific block surface, there will be an overlap be-
hoisting the bucket after loading for a short distance, followed by
tween the impact space and the workspace, as shown in Fig. 3;
horizontal transportation to the top of the dumping point (assuming
therefore, the possibility of the cable crane being exposed in over-
that the operating height of the cable crane in this process remains
lap must be calculated in advance because it will create large disas-
constant for a certain block surface), vertical transport to the dump-
ters if the exposure becomes an accident.
ing point, and finally, returning to the filling platform with an
Combining the size of different dam block surfaces, the length
empty load along the original route.
of the overlap Ox refers to the distance from the left edge of the
For the duration that the bucket is an undesirable event, an im-
block surface to the dumping point. Comparing the offset I y with
pact space will be formed (delineated in Fig. 2). The bucket per-
the length of the dumping point to the offset side Dy , two possibil-
forms a free-fall motion under gravity in the vertical direction; as
ities are considered: (1) offset I y within a work location to a surface
for the wind direction, it is regarded as uniform accelerated move-
on which the activity is being performed, and (2) offset I y outside
ment under wind force. The offset I y of the bucket in the wind
of the work location to a surface below the work area. The width Oy
direction is the width of the impact space (Fig. 2). The length I x
of the overlap is determined as shown in Fig. 3
is the horizontal distance of the bucket from the filling point to the
dumping point, the height Hbucket is the highest value, and the offset 
Iy I y ≤ Dy
I y has the largest value when the cable crane transports the bucket Oy ¼ ð5Þ
horizontally. Setting the duration of the entire drop process to Dy I y > Dy
tbucket
undesiredevent , the impact space can be represented according to
the following formula: Consequently, the length and width of the overlap space are de-
termined, and it can be described as follows:
SI ¼ I x × I y ð2Þ
0sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi12 SO ¼ Ox × Oy ð6Þ
1 2 Fwind @ 2Hbucket A F H
I y ¼ awind tbucket ¼ ¼ wind bucket
2 undesiredevent
2m g mg

ð3Þ z
Cable crane
where awind = acceleration in the wind direction; g = gravitational Workspace
acceleration; and m = weight of the bucket mbucket if the bucket falls Overlap
with the empty load or m ¼ mbucket plus the weight of concrete
in the bucket mconcrete if bucket falls with a full load, mconcrete ¼
ρconcrete πr2 h, where ρconcrete is the concrete density.
Bucket

Quantification of the Workspace under Dynamic

Conditions
The workspace is regarded as the boundary range of various
Dumping point
construction machinery activities, such as leveling the surface, o
Wy x
vibration, and rolling on the dam block surface. Due to the lim- Dy Oy
ited space at the construction site, these processes usually
Ox
require a variety of machines operated simultaneously. Conse-
quently, the crews and mechanical equipment in these opera- Wx
tions can be regarded as victims because they are often y
exposed to dangers posed by the activities performed by teams
Fig. 3. Workspace and overlap.
other than their own.

© ASCE 04020167-4 J. Constr. Eng. Manage.

J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 2021, 147(2): 04020167

 Filling platform: t1

Loading: t2

Return with empty load: t Checking:t3

t4 Hoist and accelerate Hoist and uniform speed Hoist and decelerate

Repeat
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Horizontal transportation Horizontal transportation Horizontal transportation

t5
and decelerate and uniform speed and accelerate

t6 Drop and accelerate Drop and uniform speed Drop and decelerate
9

Unloading: t8 Alignment: t7

Fig. 4. Operation process of the cable crane.

Estimation of Exposure Frequency stops. Taking the bucket transporting concrete in the horizontal sec-
tion as an example, first, the cable crane starts on the left side of the
Probability of the Hazard Appearing in the Overlap cable with initial speed ¼ 0 and acceleration ahorizon acceleration to maxi-
mum speed vhorizon normal , the transport time is t horizon
acceleration and the distance
The transportation of cable cranes can be decomposed into cycle is lhorizon . Then, the transport time t horizon
acceleration uniform and transport distance
processes (n items) in Fig. 4, such as loading, checking, conveying
lhorizon
uniform are determined according to the length of the transport dis-
with a full load, aligning, unloading, and returning with an empty
tance, with the maximum speed vhorizon normal as the uniform speed.
load. In the two processes of conveying with a full load to the block
surface and returning with an empty load, the three parts of vertical Finally, the cable crane decelerates (¼ahorizon deceleration ) at an initial speed
lifting, horizontal movement, and vertical lowering are required. of vhorizon
normal for movement until the bucket reaches the top of the
Whether the cable crane is transported loaded or unloaded dur- dumping point; the duration is thorizon deceleration , and the transportation dis-
ing horizontal or vertical transport, the track of the cable crane fol- tance is lhorizon
deceleration (Fig. 5). According to the simple motion laws of
lows a similar pattern: it must first accelerate to its normal running objects in physics, the running time thorizon of the bucket during the
speed, then run at a uniform speed, and finally decelerate until it horizontal section is

thorizon ¼ thorizon
acceleration þ tuniform þ tdeceleration
horizon horizon

vhorizon 1 horizon  horizon 2

thorizon
acceleration ¼
normal
acceleration ¼ aacceleration tacceleration
lhorizon Acceleration
ahorizon
acceleration 2
lhorizon
uniform ¼
thorizon luniform ¼ I x − lhorizon
uniform horizon
acceleration − ldeceleration
horizon
Uniformspeed
vhorizon
normal
 horizon 2
vhorizon vnormal
thorizon ¼ − normal
l horizon
¼ − Deceleration ð7Þ
deceleration
adeceleration
horizon deceleration
2ahorizon
deceleration

However, if the deceleration starts before reaching the uniform that the cable crane takes to transport one bucket of concrete and
speed, the uniform speed phase will no longer exist, and the hori- return, is equal to the sum of the time spent in each process (n
zontal transport will include only the acceleration phase and the items)
deceleration phase.
The concrete lifting, vertical transportation to the construction X
n
T bucket
impact ¼ ti ð8Þ
platform, empty return, and other processes are the same as the i¼1
horizontal transportation process. Hence, each stage of the trans-
portation time ti can be generated. Finally, the total time T bucket
impact The time for the cable crane to transport its load from the block
that the bucket appears in the impact space, which is also the time surface left edge to the dumping point is tarrive ; the total return time

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 Accelerate Uniform speed Decelerate
compactor compactor compactor
aacceleration vnormal adeceleration
compactor compactor compactor
tacceleration tuniform tdeceleration

Overlap space

Joint surface
Metamorphic
Cy concrete

Wy
l joint
Cy Oy
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Dy
Cx
Ox

compactor
Wx compactor compactor
ldeceleration luniform lacceleration
Decelerate Uniform speed Accelerate

Fig. 6. Rolling method of compactor.

to the left edge of the surface is tleave . Additionally, the alignment v l

and unloading zone is part of the overlap. Therefore, the running Acceleration Uniform speed Deceleration
time tbucket
overlap of the bucket in the overlap of the block surface is stated
in Eq. (9)
horizon horizon
vnormal ldeceleration
tbucket
overlap ¼ tarrive þ tleave þ talignment þ tunloading ð9Þ
horizon
aacceleration horizon
luniform
horizon
adeceleration
According to probability theory, under certain wind conditions,
horizon
the probability that the bucket appears in the overlap Phazard is equal lacceleration
to the ratio of the time that the bucket appears in the overlap to the o
horizon horizon horizon
possible exposure time of the cable crane. As a result, it can be tacceleration tuniform tdeceleration t
obtained as follows:
Fig. 5. Movement of the bucket during horizontal transportation.
tbucket
overlap
Phazard ¼ ð10Þ
T bucket
impact
assumed that all compactors travel in a straight line without
deviation during the process.
It is known that the size of a certain dam block surface is
Probability of the Victim Appearing in the Overlap
W x × W y , the length of the compactor is Cx , and width is Cy . The
In the concrete pouring process, concrete spreading and cutting are calculation of the rolling strips ustrips can be expressed
generally implemented simultaneously with the vibration rolling  
process, which does not occupy the construction period; thus, W y − ljoint
ustrips ¼ ð11Þ
concrete vibration is an essential process of the dam block surface Cy − ljoint
construction (Zheng et al. 2020). Besides, the compactor has less
free float compared with other machines, so it is not easy to adopt It is assumed that under normal conditions, the compactor
space-conflict-avoidance strategies such as waiting and avoidance. undergoes three stages of acceleration, uniform speed, and decel-
Therefore, in this part, the compactor is selected as an example for eration from start to stop when rolling each strip. Setting tcompactor
acceleration ,
analysis. tcompactor
uniform , and t compactor
deceleration as the acceleration time, uniform speed
Generally, the forward and backward offset driving mode is se- time, and deceleration time of different situations, respectively,
lected because the rolling method is easy to construct and control the total time to complete concrete pouring construction of the en-
quality (Fig. 6). The block surface can be divided into several roll- tire block surface can be calculated using Eq. (12) as follows:
ing strips (ustrips ), several compactors (k) are adopted to vibrate the
surface simultaneously, and after enough times (q) of reciprocating qustrips ðtcompactor compactor compactor
acceleration þ tuniform þ tdeceleration Þ
compaction on both sides of the rolling strip, the strip is staggered T compactor ¼ ð12Þ
work
k
to the next rolling strip for vibration. In general, the direction of the
compactor is parallel to the direction of the dam axis. At the same Similar to cable crane operation, the track of the compactor must
time, the joint surface between the strips is required to be ljoint . It is first accelerate (¼acompactor compactor
acceleration ) to its normal running speed vnormal

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 (movement distance is lhorizon acceleration ), then run at a uniform speed Modeling of the Exposure Frequency
vcompactor
normal , and finally decelerate (¼acompactor
deceleration ) until it reaches the This process conceptually indicates the required input knowledge
edge of the block surface. In these three stages, the distances
and data that affect risk levels. Wind speed, owing to its uncertainty,
are lcompactor compactor compactor
acceleration , luniform , and ldeceleration , respectively. Additionally, and the offsets of the cable crane in different situations are signifi-
there will be an exposure when any part of the compactor contacts
cantly different. The bigger wind force, the higher the proportion of
the critical range of the overlap. Hence, the time of the compactor
hazard presenting in the overlap and the longer time occupied by
being present in the overlap tcompactor
overlap can be entailed in three cases.
the cross activities for the same space, the greater the frequency of
To describe tcompactor
overlap , the rolling strips occupied by the overlap hazard exposure. The bucket and compactor, which vary according
space (Ostrips ) must be calculated first. According to the width of the
to their relevant parameters, determine the possibility of the hazard
overlap space (Oy ), the width of the compactor (Cy ), and the joint
occurring and/or the possibility of the victim being exposed to dan-
surface between strips (ljoint ), the number of rolling strips (Ostrips )
ger. These two subactivities overlap in the same space; the source
can be deduced as follows:
task is executed for Phazard, and the target task is performed for
  Pvictim . The probability of the exposure of machines performing
Oy − ljoint
Ostrips ¼ ð13Þ
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Cy − ljoint the target task to the undesirable event occurring in the source task
over the same strong winds Pðexposurejvwind Þ is given by
Three possibilities exist: Pðexposurejvwind Þ ¼ Phazard · Pvictim ð18Þ
1. If the distance from the block surface left edge to the dumping
point (Ox þ Cx ) is less than lcompactor
acceleration , the time that the compac- On this ground, the expected exposure frequency can be por-
tor appears in the overlap is expressed trayed as the sum frequencies of the hazard and victim appearing
rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi in the overlap under various wind speed conditions. The following
q · Ostrips · 2ðO x þCx Þ
acompactor
formula presents the exposure frequency as a product of three in-
tcompactor ¼
acceleration
ð14Þ dependent factors:
overlap
k
X
vmax

2. If the distance from the block surface left edge to the dumping E¼ Pwind · Pðexposurejvwind Þ ð19Þ
vwind
point (Ox þ Cx ) is more than lcompactor acceleration but less than
lcompactor
acceleration þ l compactor
uniform , the time that the compactor appears in where E = expectation of hazard exposure; vmax maximum wind
the overlap space can be described as follows: speed allowed by the operating regulations of the cable crane; and
ðOx þCx Þ−lcompactor
Pwind = statistical frequency of each wind scale.
q · Ostrips · ðtcompactor
acceleration þ
acceleration
vcompactor
Þ
tcompactor ¼ normal
ð15Þ
overlap
k Case Study
3. If the distance from the block surface left edge to the dumping
The specific simulation steps to identify the hazard exposure and
point (Ox þ Cx ) is more than lcompactor compactor
acceleration þ luniform , the present- estimate exposure frequency are as follows: collect the information
ing time of the compactor is
of wind parameters, generate the statistical frequency of each wind
scale, identify the dynamic impact space and workspace, calculate
tcompactor
overlap the probability of the hazard/victim appearing in the overlap, and
rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi! then obtain the hazard exposure frequency through simulation.
2ðOx þCx −lcompactor −lcompactor Þ
q · Ostrips · tcompactor compactor
acceleration þtuniform þ
acceleration
−acompactor
uniform

deceleration
¼ Exposure Estimation Results of Dagangshan Dam
k
Therefore, the probability that the compactor is present in the
overlap Pvictim (where a compactor is exposed to an undesirable
event) under a certain wind speed is equal to the ratio of the time
that the compactor appears in the overlap to the total time to com-
plete concrete pouring construction of the entire block surface;
hence, an unambiguous criterion exists:
tcompactor
overlap
Pvictim ¼
T compactor
work
Based on previous engineering experience, there are numerous
different types of construction equipment working during dam con-
struction; thus, it is difficult to show the technical and process char-
acteristics of all machines in this part. Because the compactor is
selected as a victim for the analysis of workspace, the proposed
equations [Eqs. (11)–(17)] are developed according to the compact-
or’s driving mode. From an application perspective, these equations
can be used as a reference for other equipment with the similar
motion law to the compactor.
Construction
ð16Þ
The Dagangshan Hydropower Station is located in the Wajiao
township of Shimian County, Ya’an City, Sichuan Province. The
parameters of the cable crane and compactor used in the project
are given in Table 1 (Chen et al. 2019; Zheng et al. 2020). To sim-
plify the case study, only the project elements that are relevant to
the aforementioned scenario are included in the space system.
Because the dam is greatly affected by the strong winds during
concrete dam construction, winds stronger than Scale 7 will affect
the operation of the cable cranes and obviously increase the impact
ð17Þ space of the bucket. To ensure safety during construction, cable
cranes should stop running when the wind scale is over 11 (Fu
2018). However, according to the meteorological statistics of the
dam area in 2012 (Fan and Ju 2013), the number of windy days
above the Scale 7 accounted for 67.95% of the total number of days
in the year, and the proportion of strong winds is shown in Fig. 7(a).
Because each wind scale corresponds to a section of wind speed,
the median is selected as the representative wind speed for each
scale to make the next calculation easier (15.50, 18.95, 22.60,
26.45, and 30.65 m=s for the 7–11 wind scale) [GBT28591
(Chinese Standard 2012b)]. Taking the statistical data of Baihetan
Dam as reference, it was found that the wind direction of strong

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 Table 1. Mechanical motion parameters
Construction machinery Parameter Value
LQP30t 677 m parallel traveling cable crane Uniform speed 7.5 m=s
Hoisting speed: unloaded 3 m=s
Lowering speed: unloaded 3 m=s
Hoisting speed: loaded 2.15 m=s
Lowering speed: loaded 3 m=s
Loaded and unloaded lifting acceleration 0.75 m=s2
Lateral traction acceleration 0.75 m=s2
Diameter of the bucket 3.05 m
Physical height of the bucket 3.8 m
Weight of the unloaded bucket 6,850 kg
Weight of the loaded bucket 28,450 kg
BW202AD self-propelled compactor Cylinder length 2,135 mm
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Speed 0.4 m=s

Length, width, and height 4,830, 2,331, and 3,150 mm
Acceleration 0.1 m=s2

N wind is mostly a north wind and northerly wind, basically along

1.64% NNW60 NNE
8.49% NW NE the direction of the river, with an average probability of 76.3%,
Scale 1-6 40
Scale 7 WNW ENE
among which, the north wind is the most common, with an average
20
16.16%
32.05%
Scale 8
probability of 41.4%, as shown in Fig. 7(b) (Li 2017). Therefore,
W 0 E the hazard exposure frequency was analyzed in the case of the
Scale 9
Scale 10 WSW ESE north wind.
23.56%
18.08% Scale 11 SW SE When the 30-t cable crane is equipped with a 9 m3 bucket, the
SSW SSE minimum distance from the main cable to the bottom of the bucket
S
is 22 m. The time required for each process is given in Table 2
(a) (b) according to the calculation of one round trip of the cable crane
(Zheng et al. 2020).
Fig. 7. Wind statistics: (a) wind scale; and (b) wind rose.
During the period analyzed, Dam block 14 at 1,025 m elevation,
22.6 m ðW x Þ × 32 m (W y ) is selected as an example. The transpor-
tation distance for the bucket to the dam block surface I x is 270 m,
and the dumping point is the center point of the surface (270, 0,
Table 2. Time distribution at each stage 1,025). The offset of the bucket I y in different situations can be
calculated according to Eqs. (1) and (3). The results are given in
Process Time (s) Table 3. It can be intuitively seen from Table 3 that the wind has a
Filling and checking 120 significant impact on the deviation of the bucket. When the wind
Start up 20 speed reaches 30.65 m=s, the offset of the unloaded bucket I y
Hoist 15 reaches 23.50 m.
Horizontal transportation acceleration 10 Because I x and Hbucket have been fixed, it can be calculated that
Horizontal transportation uniform speed thorizon drop
Horizontal transportation deceleration
uniform
10 uniform ¼ 26 s and tuniform ¼ 64.20 s. Based on the parameters
thorizon
Drop acceleration 10 listed in Table 2, T impact ¼ 505.40 s [Eq. (8)]. In the same way, ac-
bucket

Drop uniform speed tdrop

uniform cording to Table 3 and Eqs. (6)–(10), SO , tbucket
overlap , and Phazard are
Drop deceleration 10
calculated in Table 4.
Alignment and unloading 60
Dock 15
According to the length and division of the rolling strip, it can be
55 þ thorizon drop concluded that when I y >13.83 m, the bucket will appear in the last
Return with an empty load uniform þ tuniform
rolling strip, so Oy has the same value in these cases. In addition,

Table 3. Deviation of the bucket in different situations

Loaded/unloaded Wind scale vwind (m/s) w φ (m2 ) H bucket (m) Fwind (kN) I y (m)
Loaded 7 15.50 154.961 11.59 224.6 403,381.799 1.45
8 18.95 231.621 11.59 224.6 602,936.161 2.16
9 22.60 329.440 11.59 224.6 857,570.397 3.08
10 26.45 451.244 11.59 224.6 1,174,638.565 4.21
11 30.65 605.928 11.59 224.6 1,577,298.391 5.66
Unloaded 7 15.50 154.961 11.59 224.6 403,381.799 6.01
8 18.95 231.621 11.59 224.6 602,936.161 8.98
9 22.60 329.440 11.59 224.6 857,570.397 12.77
10 26.45 451.244 11.59 224.6 1,174,638.565 17.50
11 30.65 605.928 11.59 224.6 1,577,298.391 23.50

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 Table 4. Probability of buckets appearing in overlap
Loaded/unloaded Wind scale I y (m) I x (m) SI (m2 ) Oy (m) Ox (m) SO (m2 ) T bucket
impact (s) tbucket
overlap (s) Phazard (%)
Loaded 7 1.45 270 391.5 1.45 11.3 16.39 505.40 230.14 45.54
8 2.16 270 583.2 2.16 24.41
9 3.08 270 831.6 3.08 34.80
10 4.21 270 1,136.7 4.21 47.57
11 5.66 270 1,528.2 5.66 63.96
Unloaded 7 6.01 270 1,622.7 6.01 11.3 67.91
8 8.98 270 2,424.6 8.98 101.47
9 12.77 270 3,447.9 12.77 144.30
10 17.50 270 4,725.0 16.00 180.80
11 23.50 270 6,345.0 16.00 180.80
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Table 5. Probability of the compactor appearing in the overlap

vwind Pwind SO T compactor
work tcompactor
overlap Pvictim Phazard Pwind · Pvictim · Phazard
Loaded/unloaded (m/s) (%) (m2 ) (s) (s) (%) (%) (%) E (%)
Loaded 15.50 18.082 32.70 12,810 1,365 10.656 45.54 0.877 10.379
18.95 23.562 48.87 1,365 10.656 1.143
22.60 16.164 69.51 1,365 10.656 0.784
26.45 8.493 95.21 1,820 14.208 0.550
30.65 1.644 127.85 2,275 17.760 0.133
Unloaded 15.50 18.082 106.66 2,275 17.760 1.462
18.95 23.562 159.42 2,730 21.311 2.287
22.60 16.164 180.80 3,185 24.863 1.830
26.45 8.493 180.80 3,640 28.415 1.099
30.65 1.644 180.80 3,640 28.415 0.213

the data in other situations can be obtained according to the for-
mula. It is obvious that when the wind scale is no more than Scale
11, the wind speed has no impact on the running time of the cable
impact and toverlap remain unchanged. Hence, it can be
crane, and T bucket bucket
easily determined that Phazard ¼ 45.54%.
According to the parameters, this block surface should be
equipped with one cable crane and one compactor. According to
Eq. (12), the block surface is divided into ustrips ¼ 15 strips, and
the joint surface between the strips ljoint is 0.2 m. Combined with
the operating parameters, dam block parameters, compactor param-
eters, and construction technical parameters, the data of the com-
pactor are combined once in a certain rolling strip: tcompactor
acceleration ¼ 4 s,
compactor compactor
tuniform ¼ 57 s, tdeceleration ¼ 4 s, and one belt needs to be repeat-
edly rolled for q ¼ 14 times; therefore, T compactor work is equal to
12,810 s [Eq. (12)]. Combined with Oy , tcompactor , P victim , and E
overlap
are calculated in Table 5 according to Eqs. (13)–(19).
As presented in Table 5, because the wind has no effect on the
running process of the compactor, T compactorwork remains constant at
different wind speeds. Consequently, one can determine Pvictim
under different wind speeds. According to the meteorological sta-
tistics of the dam area and the movement of the construction ma-
chinery, the expectation P of hazard exposure in the specific dam
block surface is E ¼ vvmax wind
Pwind · Phazard · Pvictim ¼ 10.379%.
Analysis of Project Case Results
The results structured in the case study indicate that the dynamic
wind conditions of construction sites have a significant effect on the
impact space, and then the variation in the impact space leads to
the change in overlap, thus affecting the exposure frequency.
For example, when the wind scale is 11, the exposure frequency
is equal to 8.09% when the bucket is loaded, which is 1.67 times
that when the wind scale is 7. Hence, the greater the wind speed, the
higher the exposure frequency. On this basis, the exposure fre-
quency is closely related to the wind environment, which is highly
consistent with the construction hazard assessment with spatial and
temporal exposure (CHASTE) model (Rozenfeld et al. 2009).
However, the CHASTE model can only clarify some factors (such
as the physical environment) that intensify or mitigate the exposure
frequency, but it does not provide a quantitative method for evalu-
ating their influence. The proposed model estimates uncertain haz-
ard exposure frequency based on the effect of the wind on the
trajectory of the bucket and the changes in the impact space when
an undesired event occurs. Consequently, this paper provides a
guideline to determine the factors that affect the exposure fre-
quency according to the actual environment, which compensates
for the defects in the CHASTE model.
To more clearly and intuitively see the influence of wind on the
bucket, on the basis of the bucket discrepant weight (loaded and
unloaded), MATLAB version 2016b software to calculate the offset
of the bucket I y with the different wind speeds in opposite direc-
tions vwind and the height between the cable crane and the block
surface H bucket as the independent variables, offset on the wind di-
rection I y as a dependent variable. The offset of the bucket is shown
in Fig. 8 in the direction of the wind load.
Obviously, the offset of the bucket I y increases continuously
with increasing wind speed despite the wind blowing in two differ-
ent directions (reverse and smooth). In addition, whether the bucket
is loaded or unloaded, the wind has an increasing influence on the
bucket as the height increases. Moreover, the unloaded bucket is
offset more than the loaded bucket because the weight of the bucket
has a significant effect on the offset.

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Fig. 8. Relationship among vwind , H bucket , and I y of the same block: (a) relationship between vwind and I y ; and (b) relationship between H bucket and I y .

Table 6. Exposure frequency assessed by experts
Exposure frequency
Wind
scale Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3 Expert 4 Expert 5 Average
7 2 2 1 2 1
8 2 3 2 2 2
9 3 4 2 3 3
10 4 5 3 3 4 3.8
11 5 5 4 4 5 4.6
Note: The descriptive response offers a Likert scale with values from 1 to 5,
where 1 is the lowest probability of occurrence and 5 is the highest.
Discussion
In this paper, concrete dams were taken as research object to es-
timate the hazard exposure frequency in the process of concrete
pouring on the dam block surface. The concrete transportation by
cable crane and concrete rolling by compactor were selected to
carry out the research. Based on the statistical data and prior analy-
sis, a proactive evaluation was made regarding the extent of the
hazard exposure frequency between cross activities under the wind
influence. Finally, the Dagangshan Hydropower Station Dam was
used to test the model.
The proposed model calculated a particular exposure frequency
because it considered many factors, whereas some of subjective
research methods based on historical data and experts’ empirical
judgements are often dedicated to a range of possible exposures.
For example, based on the Construction Job Safety Analysis
(CJSA) (Rozenfeld et al. 2010) method, five experts were invited
to take part in a survey. Every respondent was asked to assess the
exposure frequency of the occurrence of an undesirable event, one
probability value was solicited for the event, and the survey results
are given in Table 6. It was found that the survey results are con-
sistent with the results obtained through the proposed model, but
these experts merely provided some qualitative descriptions, and
the evaluation results of the same hazard depends on their experi-
ence. However, for certain subjects, the hazard exposure of the par-
ticular construction project can vary significantly, which cannot be
accurately quantified merely by expert experience (Moon et al.
2014). Under this premise, the work presented in this research is
directed toward providing an objective method for estimating the
frequency of exposure to uncertain wind conditions. Moreover, the
precise exposure frequency calculated in this paper is more detailed
than the previous model and is in line with the actual situation.
In light of the results of the case study, it is necessary to identify
1.6 the equipment used in this project in advance to calculate a specific
2.2 hazard exposure frequency. Generally, suitable construction ma-
3.0 chines should be reasonably selected according to the size and lo-
cation of the project because there is a variation in volume and
operating parameters. The differences in the running speed and ac-
celeration of different machines have an obvious influence on the
operation time. Attention should be highly focused on the strength
and size of the cable crane because the scope of impact space can be
changed. The running height of the cable crane and the weight of
bucket determines the offset distance of the bucket and the size of
impact space to a certain extent, so it is advisable to appropriately
lower the operation height of the cable crane and weight of bucket
so as to minimize the size of impact space. In addition, the volume
of the construction machines has a great impact on the overlap. The
larger the length and width of the compactor, the larger the overlap
will be. Thus, it is worthwhile to determine the models of construc-
tion equipment to accurately depict the operating characteristics for
the working machinery. Furthermore, accurate construction machi-
nery parameters make the results of risk assessment more reliable.
Moreover, it can be seen from the proposed model that the lo-
cation of the dumping point on the dam block surface affects the
size of the overlap (Ox × Oy ). In the case study, the dumping point
is the center of the dam block surface, which may obviously in-
crease the scope of overlap and impact space. If the dumping point
changes to the left edge of the dam block surface, the overlap and
impact space will shrink significantly, and the hazard exposure
frequency will decrease. The developed method interprets an in-
creased exposure frequency by the degree of the increased in the
overlap. Once the dumping point for this dam block surface is de-
termined, the methodology is applied to follow a set trip; as a result,
a specific exposure frequency can be conveniently obtained. Con-
sequently, the location of the dumping point plays a decisive role in
the exposure frequency.
Actually, during dam construction, owing to different processes
and operation speeds, the construction crews and equipment have
distinct residence times at different locations on the construction
site. For the crews and machines, they may be taking a long time
to finish some specific tasks on the dam block surface most prone to

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J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 2021, 147(2): 04020167

 hazard exposure, and accordingly, the frequency of exposure in-
creases significantly. In terms of the cable crane, it takes a long
time to descend the loaded bucket and lift the unloaded bucket
after reaching the specific dam block surface, o this part accounts
for a big proportion of the cable crane entire elapsed time. Con-
sidering the wind conditions, the higher the operating height and
the bigger the wind scale, the greater the possibility of accident
caused by exposure will be. In this paper, combined with space
factor, the overlap between the impact space and the workspace is
tracked with the dumping point and construction equipment been
determined. On this premise, the construction supervisor should
adopt reasonable safety management strategies such as conces-
sions and circumvention, and adjust the spatial position relation-
ship between the crews and equipment that stay in the overlapping
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area continuously.
Overall, the method presented in this paper implies a significant
change in exposure frequency with considering a variety of factors,
and the case study confirms the aforementioned results. These stat-
istical results will assist safety managers in understanding which
risk factors they need to pay attention to at a construction site
to reduce the exposure frequency. Based on this, project supervisors
can reduce the risk by adjusting the position of the dumping point
because exposure frequency variations are very diverse depending
on the target point location. Additionally, it is necessary to select an
optimal running height for the cable crane and the weight of bucket
because the risk increases as the height and weight increases. Con-
sidering the effect of wind on exposure frequency, active adaptation
to the scale and direction of the wind is also an effective method to
efficiently control risk.
Moreover, falls from high altitude and being struck by objects
are the main types of fatal accidents compared with other acci-
dent types (Shao et al. 2019). Therefore, the damage energy must
be controlled from the source before it causes catastrophic acci-
dent. For example, construction activities related to cable cranes
should be implemented after developing more detailed safety op-
eration plans. It is absolutely necessary to provide workers with
essential personal protective equipment, and meanwhile, it is
indispensable to provide equipment with the necessary early
warning systems.
The proposed method is not only applicable to the dam con-
crete pouring process, but also can be generalized to other types
of construction operation. For instance, the tower crane is also
deeply affected by the wind. The equipment plays an important
role in high-rise building projects because it is used to lift the
steel bars, concrete, steel pipes, and other raw materials. It is
found that tower cranes have a similar movement law with the
cable crane. When they are used to transport goods, there will be
a hazard exposure between the tower crane and the crews/
machines on the construction site. Therefore, the research meth-
ods and conclusions proposed in this paper are also applicable to
this field.
Conclusions
The changing and complex work environment and the simulta-
neous participation of numerous resources in construction sites
pose a significant challenge in estimating hazard exposure fre-
quency. This paper presented a quantification model of exposure
frequency for concrete dam construction considering the influ-
ence of strong winds, which considers a variety of dynamic sce-
narios with different conditions. By investigating and abstracting
the nature of space-related construction processes, the model
provides fundamental information that is able to formalize the
© ASCE 04020167-11
J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 2021, 147(2): 04020167
requirements of the space-related construction process into a
template for analysis.
To structure the quantitative model, first, the force of bucket
with wind loads was analyzed to identify the impact of potential
hazards from vertical concrete transport in an undesirable event.
With the definition of impact space and workspace, the probability
of hazards and victims concurrently appearing in overlap space is
calculated to measure the possibility of disastrous events by taking
into account spatial and temporal attributes. Then, the exposure fre-
quency is expressed using the statistical information of the wind
conditions, the location information of the site layout, and the
mechanical motion parameters.
The analysis capability of the quantitative model was tested by a
trial study on the Dagangshan Dam. The primary innovation is that
the model provides a formal approach to identify exposure under
changing strong winds and to analyze the frequency of exposure to
scrutinize construction site dynamic interactions. Because the off-
set of the bucket relies on the performance of the distinguishing
feature of wind and the holistic weight of the bucket, it is necessary
to analyze the different states of the cable crane. Thereby, the offset
of the bucket on the specific dam block surface when an undesir-
able event occurs was calculated.
The assessment results of this subject can be used in various
safety-related decision situations where the exposure frequency
can be estimated proactively. For example, the research will give
basis for the organization, coordination, and optimization of dam
pouring operations because many crucial factors were considered in
advance. Furthermore, this method will provide safety criteria for
rationality of the dam pouring construction schedule and help
supervisors better plan the optimization of safer routes. Never-
theless, this paper has not considered risk regulation of dam pour-
ing under wind force. The risk regulation mainly depicts strategies
and methods that were developed for detailed safety operation
plans, which plays an important role in the risk analysis of hazard
exposure. Consequently, this part will be generated in the next
research.
Data Availability Statement
The data generated or analyzed during the study are available from
the corresponding author by request. Information about the Journal′s
data-sharing policy can be found here. http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10
.1061/(ASCE)CO1943-7862.0001263.
Acknowledgments
This study is sponsored by the National Natural Science Founda-
tion of China (Grant No. 52079073), Hubei Province Hydropower
Engineering Construction and Management Key Laboratory
(China Three Gorges University) Open Fund (Grant No. 2020KSD05),
and the China Scholarship Council (Grant No. 20180842018).
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