Climate change and Disaster

management
PHI 405
Mahmudur Rahman Jony
Lecturer
Department of Public Health and Informatics
Jahangirnagar University
Disasters in Bangladesh
 Country Profile: Bangladesh

• Total population : 171 million

• Total Geographic Area : 148,460 sqkm
• Population density in coastal areas : 1000/sqkm
• Flood plains: 80% of total areas
• Located at fragile deltaic flood-plain
• More than 257 rivers (59 Trans boundary rivers)
• High-risk country to recurrent natural disasters
Physiography of Bangladesh

• Costal forest
• Hilly area
• Flood Plain
• High land forest
 A riverine country with
259 rivers Cherapunji (in
INDIA)

▪ Total river length : 24,000 km

Worlds highest rainfall

▪ Annual Ave. Rainfall:

1200mm in NW and
5500mm in NE
▪ Trans-boundary rivers-57
- 54 from India
- 03 from Myanmar
 Key Factors of Vulnerability

Global Warming and Climate

Change
Geographical location
Dominance of
floodplains Low
elevation from the sea
High population density
High level of poverty
Bangladesh’s geo-physical location makes it prone to various hazards, e.g. floods,
cyclones, earthquakes, etc. which cause immense losses of lives and damage to
properties, livelihoods and economic infrastructure. The country faces at least one
major disaster a year; it has lost on average 3.02 % of its GDP every year and holds
the highest disaster mortality rate in the world (UNDP 2004 )

On the other hand, Bangladesh as one of the most densely populated countries of
the world (1,265/qkm) with a very significant part of the population (20.5%,
representing 50-55 Mio. people) living in extreme poverty with less than 1 US$ per
person per day experiences a very high physical and social vulnerability.. The
districts with the highest density of poverty coincide with the most disaster prone
areas within Bangladesh.
Climate change adds a new dimension to community risks and vulnerabilities and
according to Germanwatch (2009), Bangladesh is at the top of a global climate risk
index. The climate change threat for Bangladesh is related to development as its
national economy strongly depends on agriculture and natural resources; both are
sensitive to changing climatic conditions, such as changes in rain pattern, flooding
and heat waves, as well as rising sea-level.
Due to its location in the delta of major river systems, Bangladesh is very much
dependent on good coordination mechanisms with its neighbouring countries,
especially India. The three main rivers, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna, have a
catchments area of about 1.7 million sqkm, of which 92.5% is located outside the
country. Besides the need of establishing regional Early Warning Systems, it also
includes international conventions on the use of water for irrigation and power
production.
.
 Disasters in Bangladesh

◆ Flood
◆ Tropical Cyclone
◆ Storm Surge
◆ Tornado
◆ River Bank Erosion
◆ Drought
◆ Earthquake
◆◆ Arsenic pollution
◆ Fire
◆ Landslide
 Disasters in Bangladesh

Year Disasters Death

1970 Cyclone 300,000
1988 Flood 2,373
1988 Cyclone 5,704
1991 Cyclone 138,868
1996 Tornado 545
1997 Cyclone 550
1998 Flood 918
2004 Flood 747
2007 Flood 1,071
2007 Landslide 129
2007 Cyclone(SIDR) 3,406
2009 Cyclone (Alia) 190
2012 Landslide 119
2013 Cyclone (Mahasen) 16
2015 Cyclone (Komen) 1
Floods
 Drought

About 25% of the country

10
suffer water stress in dry
season
River Bank Erosion

Bangladesh looses 10,000 ha

land annually during the last 30
years due to river bank erosion
Displacement about
68,000 population/yr
Building Collapses
Rana Plaza
Experience
Fire Incidents

14
 What is Flood?
An overflow of a large amount of water beyond its
normal limits, especially over what is normally dry land.
Floods are annual phenomena in Bangladesh with the most
severe occurring during the months of July and August. Regular
riverine flooding (mainly monsoon floods) affect 20% of the
country increasing up to 67% in extreme years (1998). The floods
of 1988, 1998 and 2004 were particularly disastrous.
Characteristics
• Long, short, or no warning, depending on the type of flood (e.g.flooding within
parts of a major river system may develop over a number of days or even weeks,
whereas flashfloods may give no usable warning);

• Speed of onset may be gradual or sudden;

• There may be seasonal patterns to flooding; and

• Major effects arise mainly from inundation and erosion; specifically, they may
include isolation of communities or areas, and involve the need for large-scale
evacuation .
Causes of flood:
• Heavy Rains (the simplest explanation for flooding is heavy rains)
• Overflowing Rivers
• Broken Dams
• Urban Drainage Basins
• Storm Surges and Tsunamis
• Channels with Steep Sides.
• A Lack of Vegetation.
• Melting Snow and Ice
Coastal flooding
Coastal areas often bear the brunt of severe storms, especially if these have gathered pace over the
oceans. Extreme weather and high tides can cause a rise in sea levels, sometimes resulting in coastal
flooding.
River flooding
River flooding is one of the most common types of inland flood; occurring when a body of water exceeds
its capacity.
Flash flooding
Caused by heavy and sudden rainfall, flash flooding happens when the ground cannot absorb the water
as quickly as it falls. This type of flood usually subsides quickly, but while it lasts can be fast-moving and
dangerous. Flash flooding can be prevented by good drainage systems and by avoiding over-development
on floodplains.
Groundwater flooding
As opposed to flash floods, groundwater flooding takes time to occur. As rain falls over an extended
period, the ground becomes saturated with water until it cannot absorb any more. When this happens,
water rises above the ground’s surface and causes flooding. This type of flooding can last for weeks or
sometimes even months.
Drain and sewer flooding
Sewer floods are not always attributed to the weather. As well as rainfall, they could occur as a result of a
Four types of flooding occur in Bangladesh:

∙ Monsoon floods along major rivers during the monsoon rains

(June-September)

∙ Flash floods caused by overflowing of hilly rivers of eastern and

northern Bangladesh (in April-May and September November)

∙ Pluvial floods caused by drainage congestion during heavy rains

∙ Coastal floods caused by storm surges

Effects of flood
■ Destroy houses and buildings
■ Carry soil away from valuable farming land
■ Contaminate drinking water
■ Lead to diseases.
■ Deposit fertile soil
General countermeasures
• Flood control (e.g., by walls, gates, dams, dikes, and levees);
• Land-use regulations;
• Building regulations;
• Forecasting, monitoring, and warning system(s);
• Relocating population;
• Planning and arranging evacuation;
• Emergency equipment, facilities, and materials such as special
floodboats, sandbags, supplies of sand, and designated volunteers
who will implement emergency measures; and
• Public awareness and education programs.
• Levees
• Channel improvement
• Flood control dams
 Institution Responsible for Flood Management:

• Water Resources Planning Organization: Macro planning of water resources management;

• Bangladesh Water Development Board: Feasibility Studies, Implementation, Operation and
Maintenance of Flood Management Projects, Real Time Data Collection for Flood Forecasting and Warning
Services, Dissemination of Flood information at national and regional levels;
• Joint River Commission: To conduct negotiation for data and information exchange on Trans-boundary
rivers;
• Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD): Long, medium and short range weather forecasting
and dissemination.
• Local Government Engineering Department: Implementation. O&M of Small Scale FCD projects;
Disaster Management Bureau (DMB): Dissemination of all information on natural disaster including flood
information at community level, Flood Preparedness awareness building etc.
• Directorate of Relief: Conducting Relief and Rehabilitation operation in flood hit areas;
• Local Government Institutions (LGI): Implementation and O&M of small scale flood management
project, Flood Information Dissemination, Relief and Rehabilitation of flood victims;
• Non-Government Organizations (NGO): Advocacy for flood management, Relief and Rehabilitation of
flood victims.
Tropical cyclone
The term ‘tropical cyclone’ is used in the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and Australian waters, whilst
the same storms are called ‘hurricanes’ in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. In
the region of greatest frequency, which is the north-west Pacific near to the Philippines and Japan,
they are known as ‘typhoons’.
A cyclone is called Tufan in Bangla, from the Chinese 'Tai-fun'.
Bangladesh is the most vulnerable nation with some 20 million people exposed to the cyclone
hazard, mainly in rural communities along the fertile delta at the head of the Bay of Bengal. About
10 per cent of all tropical cyclones form in the Bay of Bengal and this area averages over five storms
per year with about three reaching hurricane intensity.
• They occur mainly in April/May and October/November. The country is
one of the worst sufferers of all cyclonic casualties in the world. The high
number of casualties and most of the damage done by cyclones are
caused by the storm surges associated with cyclones, and not by the
wind speed as is usually believed. Storm surges higher than 9 m are not
uncommon in this region (1970) and they can cause severe damage up
to 100 km inland following the river system (up to 5-10% of the total
area of Bangladesh).
With the effect of global warming and climate change, Bangladesh
is one of the worst affected countries. Every year sea level is rising
at a very slow rate and as a result salinity intrusion is becoming a
concerning issue due. With the change of climate, severe cyclone is
also occurring very frequently which is affecting not only the life
and livelihoods but also hampering economic growth of the
country.
Cyclone is not only causing human and livestock casualty it also causes people
to migrate. After the cyclone “Sidr” in 2007 and cyclone “Aila” in 2009, a large
amount of people had to change their occupation and move to different cities
for their livelihoods. Cyclone also causes the storm surge which is more
devastating for a longer time. After cyclone “Aila” the coastal polder
(embankment) were broken, and the saline water enter into the vast area
which remain for a longer period causing widespread damage for agriculture,
livestock and livelihoods.

On 16 May 2020, a disturbance was formed in the Bay of Bengal near

Andaman and Nicobar Islands. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
named the cyclonic storm as “Amphan” (pronounced as “UMPUN”) which is
the first super cyclone after the 1999 Odisha cyclone in the region.
 Determination of the Cyclone Track :

The precise forces responsible for the motion of tropical cyclones is not understood clearly
and hence determination of the path of the cyclone in advance is one of the most difficult
tasks in meteorology. Recently various statistical and numerical dynamical methods have also
been introduced for the forecast of cyclone paths.
(1) Steering Principle was first applied by H. Mohn in 1870. Until 1950 forecasts of tropical
cyclones were made by subjective methods based on synoptic maps and climatological
behaviour.

(2) Statistical methods relate predicted movement to one or more parameters in an empirical
way.
(3) Dynamical techniques, on the other hand make use of some forms of the
equation of motion to predict numerically the motion of cyclone from an
observed initial state of the atmosphere.

(4) Hybrid model in which output parameters from a dynamical model are
used in a statistical model. SPARRSO has installed a model named TYAN
for predicting the track of a cyclone based on climatology of Bay of Bengal
Cyclones for the last one hundred years. The model has shown promising
results for the forecast of cyclone movement twenty four hour ahead of
landfall. In Bangladesh, Meteorology Directorate is, responsible for the issue
of cyclone warning.
Protection Against Cyclones : What can be done to
protect ourselves from the cyclones ?
• A cyclone is a natural phenomenon like an earthquake or a volcanic eruption. We
have to learn to live with it. We have to strengthen the cyclone warning system and
adopt protective and relief measures to minimize their onslaught. SPARRSO monitors
the tropical cyclones on an hourly basis with the help of the remote sensing
equipment installed and passes the information to all concerned agencies including
Bangladesh Meteorological Dept., Bangladesh Air Force, Honourable Prime
Minister’s Office, Ministry of Disaster and Relief and so on. With the help of the
facilities at SPARRSO, we can determine the location, the intensity and the future
course of motions of the cyclone. As a matter of fact no cyclone in the Bay of Bengal
can escape the notice of the remote sensing equipment of SPARRSO. An integrated
computerised method of Cyclone warning system needs to be devoloped.
• Strongly built houses have to be constructed high above the sea level to serve
as shelter places. People from the low lying areas in the coastal region can be
evacuated into these shelters in the event of a cyclonic hit. Coastal
embankments have to be made to protect life and property from the onslaught
of storm surges. Plantation of trees along the coastal area can also diminish the
fury of the storm surges.
 Do’s &
Dont’s
Before the Cyclone season:
• Check the house; secure loose tiles and carry out repairs of doors
and windows.
• Remove dead branches or dying trees close to the house; anchor
removable objects such as loose tin sheets, loose bricks, garbage
cans, sign-boards etc. which can fly in strong winds.
• Keep some wooden boards ready so that glass windows can be
boarded if needed.
• Keep a hurricane lantern filled with kerosene, battery operated
torches and enough dry cells.
• Keep some extra batteries for transistors.
• Keep some dry non-perishable food always ready for use in
emergency.
When the Cyclone starts
• Listen to the radio (All Radio stations give weather warnings).
• Keep monitoring the warnings. This will help you prepare for a cyclone
emergency.
• Pass the information to others.
• Ignore rumours and do not spread them; this will help to avoid panic
situations.
• Believe in the official information
• When a cyclone alert is on for your area continue normal working but stay
alert to the radio warnings.
• Stay alert for the next 24 hours as a cyclone alert means that the danger is
within 24 hours.