Forecasting of Renewable Power generation for Solar and

Wind Developers
MBA- POWER MANAGEMENT

Dissertation Project Report

Submitted to

Prof. Avishek Ghosal, Ph.D.

Department of Power Management,
School of Business, Kandoli,
Dehradun- 248007
BY

HARI ANAND (500076252)

Batch: 2019-2021
Semester: IV

University of Petroleum & Energy Studies

Knowledge Acres, PO Kandoli
Dehradun (248007)

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I have undergone this Project which was meticulously planned and guided at every stage so

that it became a lifetime experience for me. This could not be realized without the help from

numerous sources and people in the University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, School of Business

and Department of Energy Management.

I am also very grateful to Dr. Anil Kumar (HOD, Energy Management) for his kind

support and guidance. I would also like to thank Dr. Mohammed Yaqoot for being the backbone

for successful completion of project and for always providing guidance whenever required

I would also like to take this opportunity to show my gratitude towards Prof. Avishek

Ghosal (Assistant Professor, Dept. of Energy, School of Business, UPES) who helped me in

successful completion of my Dissertation Project. He has been a guide, motivator & source of

inspiration for me to carry out the necessary proceedings for completing this report and related

activities successfully. I am also very grateful for his guidance and support. I am also privileged

to have him flourished me with valuable facilities without which this work could not have been

completed.

I would also like to express my heart felt appreciation to all my friends whose direct

or indirect suggestions helped me to develop this report.

Lastly, thanks to all faculty members of Department of Energy Management for their moral

support and guidance.

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 DECLARATION

This is to certify that the Project report entitled “Forecasting of Renewable Power generation

for Solar and Wind Developers” by HARI ANAND is submitted in partial fulfilment of the

requirements as for the Dissertation Project in the Fourth semester of MBA in Power Management

in the University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, during the academic year 2019-21,

is a bonafide record of work carried out under my guidance and supervision.

Date: 16th May 2021

Prof. Avishek Ghosal,

(Assistant Professor)

Department of Energy Management

.
School of Business, Kandoli Campus, Knowledge
Acres, Dehradun- 248 007

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 INDEX

S No. Title Page No

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 2
DECLARATION 3
INDEX 4
LIST OF FIGURES 5
LIST OF TABLES 6
1 INTRODUCTION 7
2 NEED FOR THE WORK 8
3 BUSINESS PROBLEM 8
4 LITERATURE REVIEW 10
5 RESEARCH GAP 18
6 RESEARCH PROBLEM 18
7 RESEARCH QUESTION 19
8 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 19
9 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 19
10 DATA ANALYSIS & FINDINGS 21
10.1 SOLAR 21
10.2 WIND 28
11 LIMITATIONS 33
12 RECOMMENDATIONS & CONCLUSION 33
13 REFERENCES 35
14 APPENDIX 38

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 LIST OF FIGURES

S No. Description of Figure Page No.

1 Solar Forecast Methodology 20

2 Geographical Site Data of Kanyakumari 22
3 Yearly forecasted Solar Generation 27
4 Average Monthly wind speeds-2020 28
5 Power Curve of Ryse Energy E10 Wind Turbine 31

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 LIST OF TABLES

S Table Description Page

No. No.
1 Data sheet Specifications of Vikram Solar ELDORA VSP.72.AAA.04 23
(335Watt)
2 Data sheet Specifications of Delta RPI-M10A 24
3 Monthly Solar Power Generation Output 26
4 Data sheet Specifications of Ryse Energy E10 Wind Turbine 29
5 Monthly Wind Power Generation Output 32

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 1. INTRODUCTION

India has very greedy plans of increasing its Renewable Energy Component in the overall
energy generation mix. The Targets as proposed are 225GW of Renewable by 2022 with the major
sources from Solar and Wind. Though these throughout the world have been widely
commercialized but to extracting the max out of these sources is still at a very nascent stage- the
major reasons being Renewables being an intermittent source and power and moreover the lack of
prediction of the amount of generation of power from these resources. Nowadays forecasting of
power generated out of these renewable sources of power has become a key activity and a matter
of concern for a number of reasons. It helps in analysing and monitoring the performance of the
plant, detecting anomalies and faults, making reliable dispatching plans for the grid operators,
helping operation and maintenance scheduling etc. So the forecasting of the renewable power is
not only limited till the time of generation but also plays a vital role throughout the different
segments of the entire Power value chain.
If we consider the importance of forecasting from the grid management point of view, solar
generation variability caused generally by clouds can make it more difficult for the grid operator
to predict how much additional electric generation will be required to ensure the balance between
supply and demand. Though, weather forecast can never be incorporated fully while forecasting
of renewable power generation in real time, but still, other factors like soiling deposits and
manufacturing tolerances of the components used can be taken somewhat under consideration, for
that reason, renewable power forecasting imposes itself as a key solution to efficiently handle
renewable energy in power grid and must be properly accounted for in the complex decision-
making processes required to balance supply and demand in the power system. This Paper deals
with the idealistic approach of understanding and analysing various factors and incorporating those
factors live into our forecasting method that will ultimately provide a broader solution to the
Business problem for upcoming Renewable power project developers in forecasting net power
generation through these renewable power resources by means of a live excel model and
probabilistic approaches that will be studied from direct product specifications of the various
components used in these projects that shall be considered for this study as a demo and also other
factors that come up the way.

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 2. NEED FOR THE WORK

The intermittency characteristic of Renewable source of Energy along with the global
obligations of improving the generation mix of the renewables to the existing mix has led the
countries and Business to check in with the amount of generation that will be received as output
on installing these plants.
To cope up with this there is always a requirement to carry forth with a detailed forecasting
and analysis of the renewables planned to install. There may be existing methods developed to
forecast the net generation of the renewable sources of power but the major hurdle being no live
study based on specific products for a reference point of view.
This study intends to carry out forecasting of Solar and Wind Power generation on specific
product and its model considering the different parameters that will be studied as part of the
secondary research. Also, product model specific datasheets are intended to be referred to get a
broader overview of the products and incorporating the parameters identified out from the
secondary research carried out to prepare a live Excel model that will produce the desired outputs
and with the forecasted values of net generation.

3. BUSINESS PROBLEM

With more and more penetration of the Renewable sources of power into the existing mix,
there lies an equally important problem that needs to be administered - Energy Demand
Management.
Energy demand management deals with understanding the net effective generation,
effective utilization of the energy resources, reliability in supply, efficient management of energy
resources, energy conservation, combined heat and power systems, renewable energy systems,
integrated energy systems, independent power delivery systems, etc.
This Demand management also needs to consider a series of options be it technical,
organisation and behavioural solutions to meet up with the energy consumption and demand. Cost
effective options, commercially viable alternatives and environmentally friendly solutions also
requires to be explored.

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 Also, Demand management consists of planning, implementing, and monitoring activities
of energy utilization that are designed to encourage consumers to modify their level and pattern of
energy usage.
Within these there lies another interesting way forward to understand how the value of RE
power forecasting would change with the integration of different flexibility options to the existing
generation mix to meet up with growing requirements such as cross-border transmission, energy
storage, demand response, and faster ramping generators.
Also, what are the factors that must be looked on to generate a consistent flow of energy
to meet up the broader demand response in order to take efficient decision is the major problem
that exists which needs to be identified.
This covers as the major Business Problem that will be studied in a detailed manner by
means of this research study.

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 4. LITERATURE REVIEW

1. Author: L. Suganthi, Anand A. Samuel

Title: Energy models for demand forecasting—A review

Publication: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

Year: 4 October 2011

Findings: Various existing Models for Demand Forecasting

Inference: Idealistic approach for proceeding with Time Series Analysis Model for
demand Forecasting in the study

2. Author: Ayoub Fentis, Lhoussain Bahatti, Mohamed Tabaa, Mohammed Mestari

Title: Short-term nonlinear autoregressive photovoltaic power forecasting using

statistical learning approaches and in-situ observations

Publication: International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Year: 24 December 2018

Findings: A hybrid modelling approach by applying stepwise regression to select

meteorological parameters that are strongly correlated with solar power; these variables
were used to construct a feed forward neural networks (FFNN) model for 24-h ahead PV
power forecasting.

Inference: average solar irradiation and average humidity are the two most significant
parameters to forecast PV power output.

3. Title: Innovation landscape brief: Advanced forecasting of variable renewable

power generation

Publication: International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi/IRENA

Year: 2020

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 Findings: For weather-dependent renewable generators, like solar and wind power
plants, the most critical scheduling input comes from weather forecasting data. A power
generation forecast is a combination of plant availability and weather forecasts for the
location.

Inference: Requirements for VRE forecasting and integration of the same to the grid
with higher efficiency

4. Author: Zheng Z. W, Chen Y. Y, Huo M. M, Zhao B

Title: An Overview: The Development of Prediction Technology of Wind and

Photovoltaic Power Generation

Publication: Energy Procedia

Year: 30 September 2011

Findings: Direct and Indirect Method of prediction of Wind Power output

Inference: Advantages and disadvantages of these prediction models and their improved
directions.

5. Author: Ll. Lledó V. Torralba, A. Soret, J. Ramon, F.J. Doblas-Reyes

Title: Seasonal forecasts of wind power generation

Publication: Renewable Energy

Year: 25 April 2019

Findings: Limitations of climate predictions to produce seasonal forecasts of capacity

factor.

Inference: Challenges related to seasonal predictions made and relative electricity

generated from wind speed

6. Author: Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Benjamin Botor, Anthony R. Florita,Caroline

Draxl, Siyuan Lu, Hendrik F. Hamann, Bri-Mathias Hodge

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 Title: The value of day-ahead solar power forecasting improvement

Publication: Solar Energy

Year: 25 January 2016

Findings: How solar power forecasting improvements changed the impacts that the
uncertainty of solar power has on bulk power system operations.

Inference: Insights regarding the value of solar power forecasting improvement in terms
of operational electricity generation costs as well as its impact on bulk power system
operations.

7. Author: Soobin Lee, Jun-Hyung Ryu, Bri-Mathias Hodge, In-Beum Lee

Title: Development of a Neural Network-based Renewable Energy Forecasting

Framework for Process Industries

Publication: European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering – ESCAPE

Year: 12 June 2016

Findings: Comparison of Proposed Neural Network framework to that with traditional

forecasting models

Inference: A neural network-based forecasting framework for photovoltaic power (PV)

generation as a decision-supporting tool to employ renewable energies in the process
industry.

8. Author: Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann and Ilaria Vigo

Title: Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry

Publication: Center for International Climate Research Oslo (CICERO)

Year: 17 February 2020

Findings: Seasonal forecast utility for stakeholders

Inference: S2S Forecasting as a Risk management tool

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 9. Author: Soon-Duck Kwon

Title: Uncertainty analysis of wind energy potential assessment

Publication: Applied Energy

Year: 25 September 2009

Findings: Wind characteristics and its Probability Models

Inference: The probability models for Monte Carlo Simulation process for utilizing the
identified wind resources as well as for the power performance curve.

10. Author: Q. Chen, K. A. Folly

Title: Wind Power Forecasting

Publication: IFAC PapersOnLine

Year: 2018

Findings: The ANNs and ANFIS have similar performance results. According to the
evaluation results, both artificial intelligence and conventional methods are suitable for
the very-short-term and short-term wind power forecasting.

Inference: Parameters of ARMA, ANN and Time Series Forecasting Methods

11. Author: Yuan-Kang Wu, Jing-Shan Hong

Title: A literature review of wind forecasting technology in the world

Publication: IEEE PowerTech

Year: 2007

Findings: Existing Models for forecasting Wind Power Generation efficiently

Inference: Investigate the feasibility of relatively inexpensive statistical forecasting

models that do not require any data beyond historical wind power generation data.

12. Author: G. Peter Zhang

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 Title: Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model

Publication: Neurocomputing

Year: 23 November 2001

Findings: Combination of the linear ARIMA model and the nonlinear ANN model for
robustness in Forecasting

Inference: Advantageous to model linear and nonlinear patterns separately by using

different models and then combine the forecasts to improve the overall modelling and
forecasting performance.

13. Author: Dazhi Yang, Zibo Dong

Title: Operational photovoltaics power forecasting using seasonal time series

ensemble

Publication: Solar Energy

Year: 2 February 2018

Findings: Using Combination of different Forecasting Methods

Inference: Potential benefits of using seasonal time series ensemble in operational day-
ahead PV power output forecasting.

14. Author: Fei Wang, Zhao Zhen, Zengqiang Mi, Hongbin Sun, Shi Su, Guang Yang

Title: Solar irradiance feature extraction and support vector machines-based

weather status pattern recognition model for short-term photovoltaic power
forecasting

Publication: Energy and Buildings

Year: 14 October 2015

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 Findings: Four generalized weather classes (GWC) covering all meteorological weather
types are constituted based on the closeness and correlation between surface and extra-
terrestrial solar irradiance

Inference: Performance Evaluation of the proposed Classification Model

15. Author: Fei Wang, Zhao Zhen, Bo Wang and Zengqiang Mi

Title: Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models
for Day Ahead Short-Term Solar PV Power Forecasting

Publication: Applied Sciences

Year: 25 December 2017

Findings: Classification methods, K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and support vector

machines (SVM) are applied to classify the daily local weather types for solar PV power
forecasting using the operation data from a grid-connected PV plant.

Inference: SVM is prioritized for weather status pattern classification of solar PV power
forecasting because of dealing with small sample scales for newly built PV plants with
less historical data. With more data, the KNN classifier could become more accurate and
needs to be taken into consideration.

16. Author: Hossein Sangrody, Morteza Sarailoo, Ning Zhou, Nhu Tran, Mahdi Motalleb,
Elham Foruzan

Title: Weather forecasting error in solar energy forecasting

Publication: IET Renewable Power Generation

Year: 11th July 2017

Findings: Parameters Studied:

Energy
Sky cover
Dew Point

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 Relative Humidity
Temperature
Wind

Inference: Relative humidity plays the most influential role in energy forecasting and an
energy forecaster can significantly increase the accuracy of their results for 6 days ahead
by having accurate forecast of relative humidity.

17. Author: Shu Fan, James R. Liao, Ryuichi Yokoyama, Luonan Chen and Wei-Jen Lee

Title: Forecasting the Wind Generation Using a Two-Stage Network Based on

Meteorological Information

Publication: IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion

Year: 2 June 2009

Findings: Two-stage hybrid network with Bayesian clustering by dynamics and support
vector regression.

Inference: A practical and cost-efficient model based on meteorological information that

is easy to access and handle the nonstationary in the wind power and speed time series by
using BCD to cluster the time series and multiple local powerful models

18. Author: Aoife M. Foley, Paul G. Leahy, Antonino Marvuglia, Eamon J. McKeogh

Title: Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Publication: Renewable Energy

Year: 1 July 2011

Findings: Numerical weather Prediction & wind forecasting

Ensemble forecasting
Physical methods
Statistical and learning approach methods
Benchmarking & uncertainty analysis

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 Inference: Continuing innovations in statistical and machine learning prediction
techniques particularly for forecasting on very short term and short-term timescales are
evolving. Hybrid methods are delivering some of the benefits of both NWPS (in terms of
accuracy over medium term time horizons) and of statistical and machine learning
techniques (in terms of better time resolution and better representation of winds at local
scales).

19. Author: Saurabh S. Soman, Hamidreza Zareipour, Om Malik and Paras Mandal

Title: A Review of Wind Power and Wind Speed Forecasting Methods With
Different Time Horizons

Publication: IEEE North American Power Symposium 2010

Year: 4 November 2010

Findings: Time Scale Classification for Different Forecasting Techniques

Inference: Comparison of Several forecasting models for Wind Power Forecasting

20. Author: Ningkai Tang, Shiwen Mao, Yu Wang and R. M. Nelms

Title: Solar Power Generation Forecasting with a LASSO-based Approach

Publication: IEEE Internet of Things Journal

Year: 5 March 2018

Findings: Both the observational and forecasted weather dataset are time-series datasets
that changes over weather patterns and time.
Parameters Studied:
Precipitation, Dew Point, Humidity, Temperature, Wind

Inference: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based forecasting

model based on historical weather data

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 5. RESEARCH GAP

The uncertainty characteristic of Renewable source of Energy, and the existing methods
developed to forecast their net generation are many available, with a disparate perspective. It is
quite difficult to categorize the existing methodology for forecasting because each model forecasts
the certain parameters of installed and generation capacity, cost of generation, demand, and supply,
etc.
There are various methods employed to forecast RE which includes analysing the status or
future perspective predicting with a focus on specific target of interest. Most forecasting
simulations studies broadly present the existing landmark and predictions of a target country or
region and recommends policy and schemes for future penetration.
But there has been no such record instances or past publications found available where a
live product specific specification, their parameters have been used to study and deal with the
forecasting of the Renewable power generation, which this study is intended to carry forth. While
carrying forth with this study, there may be always a research question over the selection of the
product used as a demo for this study over any similar products available. To this, the research
study has completely remained unbiased and used random products as a demo for this study based
on the ready availability of their product specifications performed through secondary research and
also solving the purpose of this study based on the existing requirements.

6. RESEARCH PROBLEM

Due to the large number of preexisting models for forecasting RE Power generation, the
accurate model to carry forth as a benchmark to this research is quite challenging and a problem
that needs to be considered.
Moreover, the identification of the right parameters to study and use for our reference and
approach in Forecasting of the net RE generation is also a point of concern.

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 7. RESEARCH QUESTION

Since forecasting of RE deals with lots of external parameters, hence, will all the required
parameters be included to forecast the RE power generation in an area. What will be the priority
of each of those parameters in determining the accurate quantum of Power that will be generated?
Also, the product specifications used for this study on random approach based on fulfilment
of the initial requirements will actually solve the purpose when it comes to real time
implementation of the Solar or Wind projects that the project developers will deal with? These
questions leave behind a huge difference in the outcome of the projects in the later run.
But as a scope of the underlined project, the selected model of the components used as
reference for the study satisfies the outcome and provides a brief understanding of the forecasting
technique and the primary parameters that need to be addressed while performing any such
activity.

8. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

The core objective of the research lies on identifying the parameters that must be
considered to forecast RE Power generation and to propose a model that best incorporates all the
identified parameters and produce an expected outcome as a broader understanding of the
forecasting of Wind and Solar Power that may find useful for new project developers looking
forward for a basic understanding of forecasting and producing a desirable output.

9. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Secondary Source of data determining the scope of research was studied. Various
publications and Literature reviews were carried out that provided a basic understanding of the
different approaches that are carried to forecast the net generation of Solar and Wind power.
Also, different parameters that affect the net generation were also identified through the
literature reviews performed.

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 Based on an experimental approach, various product models were studied, their datasheets
and different parameters that may affect the net generation of Wind and Solar Power were
understood using which a suitable model that could be used for performing a live forecast study
of Wind and Solar Power Generation was proposed once the parameters for study were identified.
Various external sources that provide relevant source of information pertaining to the field of study
were referred.
Further an excel based modeling was performed where the different parameters identified
were taken as a reference based upon which a live model using realistic market products was
prepared for understanding the study with desired outputs that may ultimately find useful for the
new project developers for Solar and Wind Power Generations or serve as a reference for
upcoming scope of study for future related research studies.

Fig 1: Solar Forecast Methodology

Source: Produced by the author

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 10. DATA ANALYSIS & FINDINGS

The study was carried out for Kanyakumari based on the Solar and Wind potential that the
area possesses based on initial level of research. The parameters considered for forecasting the
solar and Wind generation was identified using the Literature surveys undergone for the project.
For getting basic level of Data for Solar, the study took the help from a licensed version of PVsyst
V7.2.0 and for wind the historical Average monthly wind speeds data were captured from World
Weather Online Portal which serves as the open source one stop solution to get the data for
different geographical locations.

10.1 SOLAR

As discussed above, the study took the help from a licensed version of PVsyst V7.2.0 that
provided with the monthly GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) for the desired location which it
usually calculates from different external sources like

• Meteonorm 8.0

• NASA SSE

• PVGIS TMY

• NREL/NSRB TMY

• Solcast TMY

Below info graph shows the output data gathered from the software upon feeding the latitudinal
and longitudinal data for the desired location. The source of the data output that was received was
from Metonorm 8.0.

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 Fig 2: Geographical Site Data of Kanyakumari

Source: Produced by the author

The above monthly GHI data that was received as the output from PVsyst V7.2.0 was used for
forecasting solar power generation from a 10000 Watts (10kW) Solar PV Plant planned to be
installed at the premises of the study location of Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu. Also, for the study
purpose the proposed solar panel and the Solar Inverter used are listed below.
• Solar Panel Model: Vikram Solar ELDORA VSP.72.AAA.04
• Solar Inverter Model: Delta RPI-M10A

The specifications from the above model datasheet were considered for study based upon which
the forecasting study was prepared and successfully done.

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 Table 1: Data sheet Specifications of Vikram Solar ELDORA VSP.72.AAA.04 (335Watt)

Source: https://www.vikramsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ELDORA-neo-72-
Series_printable.pdf

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 Table 2: Data sheet Specifications of Delta RPI-M10A

Source: https://deltaelectronicsindia.com/.oldsite/Products/Downloads/Solar/RPI-M10A.PDF

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Assumptions

1. Soiling Loss:
It is the loss incurred due to soil and mud deposition over the solar panels that may cause
hinderance and loss in production of solar power output of the panels. In the model, the Soiling
loss is considered as 5%.
2. Manufacturing Tolerance:
These are the losses that are incurred due to the property of the materials used in
manufacturing the panels. They are usually unavoidable in nature. They are broadly of 2 types:
• LID (Light Induced Degradation) that are the degradation that transpires in the
initial few hours of sun exposure, without the flow of electrons across the p-n
junctions and
• PID (Potential Induced Degradation) that are unwanted degradation effects on
solar modules that are usually caused by factors like voltage, heat and humidity.
Most modules are vulnerable to face the combination of these factors during their
operational time.
In the model, the loss due to Manufacturing Tolerance is considered as 5%.
3. Temperature Co-efficient Losses:
These are losses in power output that usually occurs due every rise in temperature of the
solar panel. From the Datasheet of the Solar Panels, the Temperature Co-efficient Losses are
considered as 0.75%.
4. Degradation Factor:
These are the losses that are considered from the Solar Panel manufacturers across its
useful life (warranty period). As mentioned over the Datasheet of the Solar Panels, the degradation
factor for the 1st year is considered as 2.5% followed by 0.67% from 2nd year to 27th year.
5. DC Cable Losses:
These losses are the losses that are considered during the transmission of Power output
generated from the Solar Panel to the inverter. It is considered as 3%.
6. Inverter Efficiency:
Based on the data available over the specifications of Inverter’s datasheet, the efficiency
of the Inverter is considered as 98.30%.

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7. AC Cable Loss:
These losses are the losses that are considered during the transmission of Power output
generated from the Inverter to the grid. It is considered as 1%.

Table 3: Monthly Solar Power Generation Output

Source: Produced by the author

• From the data sheet and the assumptions further, the requirements for no. of panels for
installing a 10kW capacity of Solar PV plant was calculated and found out that 30 solar
panels are required for the same.
• Considering the various losses discussed above, the adjusted DC Generator o/p from solar
array was calculated from the Actual GC Generator o/p. This is the input to the inverter for
converting the generated DC to AC.
• Based on the generator efficiency, the AC o/p from the inverter is calculated.
• The AC o/p generator is further adjusted by incorporating the losses that occur due to
transmission of AC produced to the Grid.
• This produced AC is then calculated out for the respective months based on the no. of days
corresponding to each month.
• The sum of the generated output power for the year is then discounted across with the
degrading factor as specified in the data sheet of the Solar Panel.

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 Fig 3: Yearly forecasted Solar Generation

Source: Produced by the author

From the solar output power generated monthly for Kanyakumari, it has been observed that, the
solar power output generated is the least for the month of November with 1.0 MWh and highest
for the month of March with 1.5 MWh generated. This was due to the low and high average GHI
observed during those months respectively primarily which may be due to the weather change
conditions that may be observed in the past for those months which requires further detailed study
but serving as out of scope to the present scope of this study.
Moreover, the degrading factors YoY plays a vital role in generation of Solar Power throughout
the useful life as the factor is discounted YoY based on the Degrading factor specified by the
Manufacturer over the datasheet.

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10.2 WIND

For studying and calculating the wind power generated, the wind historical Average
monthly wind speeds data were captured from the World Weather Online Portal which serves as
the open-source data point for such data for different geographical locations. Based on the same,
below graph shows the average wind speeds for the Year 2020 for Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu.

Fig 4: Average Monthly wind speeds-2020

Source: Produced by the author (https://www.worldweatheronline.com/kanyakumari-weather-

averages/tamil-nadu/in.aspx)

The above average monthly wind speed data that was received from the World Weather
Online portal was used for forecasting Wind power generation from a 10000 Watts (10kW) Wind
Power Plant planned to be installed at the premises of the study location of Kanyakumari, Tamil
Nadu. Also, for the study purpose the proposed wind turbine generator used is listed below.
• Ryse Energy E10

The specifications from the above model datasheet were considered for study based upon which
the forecasting study was prepared and successfully done.

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 Table 4: Data sheet Specifications of Ryse Energy E10 Wind Turbine

Source: https://ryse.energy/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Ryse-Energy-Data-Sheet-E-10.pdf

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Assumptions

1. Swept Area:
This is the area of cross section of the turbine blades (Rotor) that directly expose to the
wind and sweeps over the wind moving across the blades. From the datasheet of the Turbine
generator used, the swept are considered is 75.4 m2
2. Tower Height:
This is the length of the pole/tower of the wind turbine generator and is considered as 18m
as from the datasheet of the wind turbine.
3. Coefficient of performance:
Coefficient of performance considered for the study is (0.59 {Betz limit} which is the
maximum theoretically possible while it can be considered as 0.35 for a good design). But for the
study we the coefficient of performance is assumed to be 0.60 which is approx. 0.59.
4. Generator efficiency:
Generator efficiency is considered as 50% for car alternator, 80% or possibly more for a
permanent magnet generator or grid-connected induction generator. Since the Wind Turbine
Generator proposed for this study is a permanent magnet type generator, the Generator efficiency
is considered as 80%.
5. Gearbox/ Bearing efficiency:
Gearbox/bearings efficiency varies from the type of the turbine used; it could be as high as
95% if good. For this study, the Gearbox/ bearing efficiency considered is 95%.
6. Cut-in speed:
It is the minimum wind speed required to make the turbine in an operational state. The cut-
in speed as per the datasheet of the Wind turbine proposed for the study is 2m/s.
7. Cut-out speed:
It is the maximum wind speed upon reaching which the turbine is programmed to stop its
operations. The cut-out speed as per the datasheet of the Wind turbine proposed for the study is
30m/s.
8. Rated Wind speed:
It is the wind speed beyond which the turbine will generate the maximum output. The cut-
in speed as per the datasheet of the Wind turbine proposed for the study is 9m/s.

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 Fig 5: Power Curve of Ryse Energy E10 Wind Turbine

Source: https://ryse.energy/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Ryse-Energy-Data-Sheet-E-10.pdf

The average wind speed for the study location-Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu was found out
to be 4.88 m/s which seems to be far below the rated wind speed of the turbine proposed. But since
the average wind speed of Kanyakumari lies in between to that of the cut-in speed and the cut-out
speed specified in the Wind turbine Datasheet, the same has been proposed for the study.

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 Table 5: Monthly Wind Power Generation Output

Source: Produced by the author

• From the data sheet and the assumptions further, the requirements for no. of wind turbine
for installing a 10kW capacity of Wind Power plant was calculated and found out that 1
Wind turbine is required for the same.
• Considering the actual parameters, the output power produced from the turbine was
calculated.

• As for a moving part in any mechanical system, the coefficient of performance can never
be 100% and is always considered as to be 59% as per Betz Limit, hence the same has been
considered against the output power produced from the wind turbine.
• Further the generating efficiency of the Turbine Generator and the Gear Box/ Bearing
Efficiency was also incorporated along with the coefficient of performance against the
Power output produced from the turbine.
• As there is no YoY degradation/ almost zero maintenance is observed over the Wind
turbine generator, hence the output power produced from the wind turbine will be more or

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 less same, subjected to the wind speeds considered and the various parameters considered
for forecasting the wind power generation.

11. LIMITATIONS

The main barrier to this study has been the wider implementation of climate predictions
into the forecasting model that will ultimately serve helpful to the decision support systems
Different terminologies used by climate scientists and users, difficulties with incorporating
probabilistic outcomes into decision-making, the quality of climate predictions and the fact that
the assessment of benefits is often based on short-term considerations while the inclusion of
climate predictions into decision-making tends to have long-term benefits.
A stronger collaboration between weather and climate communities as well as stakeholder
engagement are needed to make further progress in making such forecast models more useful for
the energy sector. This should involve not just reducing relevant uncertainties within models but
also making such forecast tools more relevant and accessible for decision-making.
To achieve this, more collaborative studies involving stakeholders making financial and
economic decisions are needed to increase the sophistication and applicability of the analysis for
real life decision making. In this way, the forecasting model produced can hopefully make seasonal
extremes a little more predictable and, therefore, their impacts less severe and making the existing
model more robust and responsive in nature.

12. RECOMMENDATIONS & CONCLUSION

12.1 RECOMMENDATIONS
As a part of the study, acquired advice from industrial expertise to know about the
forecasting approach used in the case of this study to gather further recommendations for fine
tuning if any for the forecasting approach used. We had the skype face to face interview with Mr.
Siddharth Unnikrishnan, REPOS Energy, Ex-SIEMENS Ltd.-Sr. Sales Executive Manager,
Pune.
Important suggestions

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 1. Broadening the idea on minimizing the potential losses considered in the
study while forecasting Wind and Solar sources of Power.
2. Real time incorporation of the weather and climatic parameters into the
existing forecasting approach if possible. If not, then using alternative tools
like getting real time data sources through API from different data sources
related to climate and incorporating the same into the existing model.
3. Recommended to work on possibilities of increasing the net generation of the
Solar and Wind by improving the efficiency level of product models used.

12.2 CONCLUSION
1. The forecasting results from the model are satisfactory.
2. For Solar, the degrading factor year on year is the major factor responsible
for the decrement in the Solar power generation year on year.
3. For solar the generation can be improved marginally if used a Battery source
instead of using an inverter in converting the DC to AC.
4. For the 1st year the degrading factor has been on the higher side with 2.5%
and then from 2nd year on wards to the useful life of the solar panel is 0.67%.
5. The losses due to soling losses can be minimized with frequent operation
and maintenance or by using self-cleaning panels or by using automatic
wipers, this will improve the efficiency and ultimately the output of Solar
power generation.
6. For wind there is no facts about degrading factor year on year, hence as per
the study the output of wind power generation remains constant subjected
to the wind speeds at different intervals of time.
7. The output Power generation from the wind turbine has been calculated
based upon the theoretical factor as per Betz limit, however under practical
situations it may vary based upon the direction and the wind speed ratio,
that will ultimately result in change in the output of Power Generation.

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 13. REFERENCES

1. A literature review of wind forecasting technology in the world- IEEE PowerTech by

Yuan-Kang Wu, Jing-Shan Hong

2. A Review of Wind Power and Wind Speed Forecasting Methods with Different Time
Horizons- IEEE North American Power Symposium 2010 by Saurabh S. Soman,
Hamidreza Zareipour, Om Malik and Paras Mandal

3. An Overview: The Development of Prediction Technology of Wind and Photovoltaic

Power Generation- Energy Procedia by Zheng Z. W, Chen Y. Y, Huo M. M, Zhao B

4. Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry- Center for International
Climate Research Oslo (CICERO) by Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann and Ilaria Vigo

5. Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models for Day
Ahead Short-Term Solar PV Power Forecasting- Applied Sciences by Fei Wang,
Zhao Zhen, Bo Wang and Zengqiang Mi

6. Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation- Renewable

Energy by Aoife M. Foley, Paul G. Leahy, Antonino Marvuglia, Eamon J. McKeogh

7. Development of a Neural Network-based Renewable Energy Forecasting Framework

for Process Industries- European Symposium on Computer Aided Process
Engineering – ESCAPE by Soobin Lee, Jun-Hyung Ryu, Bri-Mathias Hodge, In-
Beum Lee

8. Energy models for demand forecasting—A review- Renewable and Sustainable

Energy Reviews by L. Suganthi, Anand A. Samuel

9. Forecasting the Wind Generation Using a Two-Stage Network Based on

Meteorological Information- IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion by Shu Fan,
James R. Liao, Ryuichi Yokoyama, Luonan Chen and Wei-Jen Lee

10. https://deltaelectronicsindia.com/.oldsite/Products/Downloads/Solar/RPI-M10A.PDF

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 11. https://ryse.energy/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Ryse-Energy-Data-Sheet-E-10.pdf

12. https://www.vikramsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ELDORA-neo-72-
Series_printable.pdf

13. https://www.worldweatheronline.com/kanyakumari-weather-averages/tamil-
nadu/in.aspx

14. Innovation landscape brief: Advanced forecasting of variable renewable power

generation- International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi/IRENA

15. Operational photovoltaics power forecasting using seasonal time series- Solar Energy
by Dazhi Yang, Zibo Dong

16. Seasonal forecasts of wind power generation- Renewable Energy by Ll. Lledó V.
Torralba, A. Soret, J. Ramon, F.J. Doblas-Reyes

17. Short-term nonlinear autoregressive photovoltaic power forecasting using statistical

learning approaches and in-situ observations- International Journal of Energy and
Environmental Engineering by Ayoub Fentis, Lhoussain Bahatti, Mohamed Tabaa,
Mohammed Mestari

18. Solar irradiance feature extraction and support vector machines-based weather status
pattern recognition model for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting- Energy and
Buildings by Fei Wang, Zhao Zhen, Zengqiang Mi, Hongbin Sun, Shi Su, Guang
Yang

19. Solar Power Generation Forecasting with a LASSO-based Approach- IEEE Internet
of Things Journal by Ningkai Tang, Shiwen Mao, Yu Wang and R. M. Nelms

20. The value of day-ahead solar power forecasting improvement- Solar Energy by Carlo
Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Benjamin Botor, Anthony R. Florita,Caroline Draxl,
Siyuan Lu, Hendrik F. Hamann, Bri-Mathias Hodge

21. Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model-
Neurocomputing by G. Peter Zhang

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 22. Uncertainty analysis of wind energy potential assessment- Applied Energy by Soon-
Duck Kwon

23. Weather forecasting error in solar energy forecasting- IET Renewable Power
Generation by Hossein Sangrody, Morteza Sarailoo, Ning Zhou, Nhu Tran, Mahdi
Motalleb, Elham Foruzan

24. Wind Power Forecasting- IFAC PapersOnLine by Q. Chen, K. A. Folly

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 14. APPENDIX

Solar Assumptions

Plant Requirements
Installed Capacity 10000 Watts

Solar Panel Parameters

Solar Panel Rating Used 335 Watts
Soiling Loss 5%
Manufacturing Tolerance 5%

(Light Induced and Potential

Induced Degradation)
Temperature Coefficient Losses 0.75%
Degradation Factor (1st Year) 2.50%
Degradation Factor (2nd-27th Year) 0.67%

DC Cable Parameters
DC Cable Losses 3%

Inverter Parameters
Inverter efficiency 98.30%

AC Cable Parameters
AC Cable Loss 1%

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 Wind Assumptions

Plant Requirements
Installed Capacity 10000 Watts

Wind Turbine Parameters

Wind Turbine Rating Used 10000 Watts
Swept Area 75.4 m2
Tower Height 18 m

Coefficient of Performance 59%

Generator efficency 80%
Gearbox/ Bearing efficiency 95%
Cut-in speed 2 m/s
Cut-out speed 30 m/s
Rated Speed 9 m/s

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