Betfair Betting System How To Lay Favourites For A Living

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved 1
Copyright © 2006 by Kristian Jackman
All rights reserved. It is illegal to copy, distribute, or create derivative works from
this book in whole or in part. Please be aware that using any information in this book
is at your own discretion. The author is in no way liable for any debts that you may
incur with your betting. Please note that gambling and the use of information related
to gambling is illegal in some countries. The author holds no responsibility for any
reader using the information herein while it is against the local laws of the country
they reside in.
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
Congratulations on purchasing a copy of 'How to Lay Favourites for a Living'. What

you have in front of you is essentially a 'how to' guide for amassing a fortune through
horse racing. The size of that fortune depends entirely upon you.
Some of you will read this manual, and think to yourself “Oh that sounds like a great
way to make money” but never act upon it. Whether because of fear or pure laziness,
I don't know. Others will push their worries aside, take on board the principles it
contains and begin to create the wealth they deserve. I sincerely hope you are part of
the second group.
Of course everyone who reads this book will have different levels of skill and
knowledge within the broad area of horse racing gambling. Many of you will find
yourself coming back to different parts of the book time and time again in order to
fully understand and internalise the principles taught. So whilst this book has the
structure of a 'how to' guide, in that it contains step by step instructions, it should be
noted that it's meant to be used as a reference.
You will no doubt find that you pick up some parts of the book almost straight away
whilst other parts require several readings. This is perfectly natural and the key is to
go at your own pace. It's no good hitting the exchanges before you have mastered the
art of laying as that is a sure fire way to lose money. Of course you will need to
apply the principles in this book in real-life examples on the exchanges before you
can truly understand and internalise them.
This is why I strongly recommend that you begin by paper trading your selections
rather than risking money on them straight away. By doing this you will become
comfortable with laying without losing any real money.
Due to the different experience levels of all the readers I have decided to structure
this book into 5 parts. The first is more a guide to gambling in general and will be
useful to the complete 'newbies' out there. In this section I will explain all the basics
of gambling including odds and percentages and the notion of value.
In the second part of the book I go on to discuss laying horses in more detail. Also
included is a basic user guide of Betfair to help you on your way.
In the third part I will show you how to study race cards and form with particular
reference to the Racing Post website.
The fourth part is the system itself. It will teach you how to spot losing favourites in
as little as half an hour a day.
In the fifth and final part I offer further tactics to enhance your profits including
professional staking and bank management strategies.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1: Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3
Part 1: The Basics of Gambling.................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Chapter 2: Understanding Odds and Percentages................................................................................................................................. 7
Chapter 3: The Notion of Value...................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Part 2: The Basics of Laying............................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Chapter 4: What is Laying?................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Chapter 5: How to use a Betting Exchange................................................................................................................................................... 18
Part 3: Understanding the Racing Post Website...................................................................................................... 22
Chapter 6: Understanding the Race Card.......................................................................................................................................................... 23
Chapter 7: Understanding the Postdata table............................................................................................................................................... 25
Chapter 8: Studying a Horse's Racing History.......................................................................................................................................... 27
Part 4: How to Pick a Losing Horse.................................................................................................................................................. 29
Chapter 9: Laying Horses – Flat Racing............................................................................................................................................................ 30
Chapter 10: Step 1 – Primary Warning Signs – Flat Racing............................................................................................... 32
Chapter 11: Step 2 – Evaluating the Opposition.................................................................................................................................... 36
Chapter 12: Step 3 – Secondary Warning Signs – Flat Racing....................................................................................... 37
Chapter 13: Step 4 – Bringing It All Together.......................................................................................................................................... 42
Chapter 14: Example 1.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Chapter 15: Example 2.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Chapter 16: Laying Horses – National Hunt (Jump) Racing............................................................................................... 56
Chapter 17: Step 1 – Primary Warning Signs – Jump Racing........................................................................................... 57
Chapter 18: Step 2 – Evaluating the Opposition.................................................................................................................................... 62
Chapter 19: Step 3 – Secondary Warning Signs – Jump Racing................................................................................... 63
Chapter 20: Step 4 – Bringing It All Together.......................................................................................................................................... 66
Chapter 21: Example 3.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
Part 5: Maximising Profits.................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Chapter 22: Laying at the Right Price.................................................................................................................................................................... 76
Chapter 23: Using a Betting Bank............................................................................................................................................................................... 77
Chapter 24: Final Thoughts.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
PART ONE: THE BASICS OF
GAMBLING
This part is essentially for the newbies out there. In this section I will quickly go
through the basics of gambling including odds and percentages and the importance of
value in betting.
Of course even if you have experience with gambling you still may find some useful
information here, and I would advise everyone to at least skim read this part.
CHAPTER 2: UNDERSTANDING ODDS AND
PERCENTAGES
Odds are referred to as the "price" for a horse in a race. The bookmakers set the
prices according to what they believe is the horse's chance of winning. The more
likely they think a horse is to win, the "shorter" the horse's price will be. That is to
say the smaller the return will be for a punter who backs the horse to win.
For example if a horse is priced at 4/1 then the bookie is saying that if that exact race
was run 5 times that horse would win it once. Or to put it another way the horse has a
20% chance of winning.
There are three different ways odds can be presented. Depending on which market
the bookmaker targets. Odds are presented by either the British, European or
American standard.
British - Fractional Odds
The traditional British way is to describe the odds as a fraction e.g 5/1 or "Five to
One". When the first figure is higher than the second it is called "odds against". The
amount won will be greater than the original stake. For example if the odds offered
were 5/1 then for every £1 staked you would win £5.
When the first figure is smaller than the second it is called "odds on" and the amount
of winnings will be smaller than the stake. For example if the odds offered were 4/6
then for every £6 staked you would win £4.
Below is an example of an on-line race card using British Odds;
European - Decimal Odds
Unlike the British fractions the European system deals in decimals. The figure quoted
is the return a punter receives (including the stake) based on a bet of 1 unit. To
transfer from British odds to European odds simply divide the first number by the
second number and add 1.
So odds of 5/1 become 6 (5 ÷ 1 + 1 = 6)
and odds of 4/6 become 1.67 (4 ÷ 6 + 1 = 1.67)
The betting exchanges all use the European odds system so it is something you are
going to have to learn to recognise.
Below is an example of an on-line race card using European Odds;
American Odds
The American system is different again and is the most complicated due to odds
being either positive or negative. The system is based on “evens” (1/1) being
expressed as 100.00.
If an event is odds on then the figure is preceded by a minus “-” and represents the
amount you have to stake in order to win 100 units. If an event has odds greater than
evens then it is a positive figure and represents the amount you win for every 100
units staked.
Don't worry if you don't understand this completely. We will not be dealing in
American odds in any way.
Below is an example of an on-line race card using American Odds;
Table of Odds and Percentages.
UK EUR USA % UK EUR USA % UK EUR USA %

2/7 1.29 -350 77.80 9/5 2.80 180 35.71 14/1 15.00 1400 6.67
3/10 1.30 -330 76.70 15/8 2.87 187 34.78 16/1 17.00 1600 5.88
1/3 1.33 -300 75.00 19/10 2.90 190 34.48 18/1 19.00 1800 5.26
4/11 1.36 -275 73.33 2/1 3.00 200 33.33 20/1 21.00 2000 4.76
2/5 1.40 -250 71.43 21/10 3.10 210 32.26 22/1 23.00 2200 4.35
4/9 1.44 -225 69.23 11/5 3.20 220 31.25 25/1 26.00 2500 3.85
1/2 1.50 -200 66.67 9/4 3.25 225 30.77 28/1 29.00 2800 3.45
8/15 1.53 -190 65.50 23/10 3.30 230 30.30 33/1 34.00 3300 2.94
4/7 1.57 -150 63.64 12/5 3.40 240 29.41 40/1 41.00 4000 2.44
8/13 1.65 -161 61.90 5/2 3.50 250 28.57 50/1 51.00 5000 1.96
2/3 1.67 -150 60.00 13/5 3.60 260 27.78 66/1 67.00 6600 1.49
8/11 1.73 -137 57.89 27/10 3.70 270 27.03 80/1 81.00 8000 1.23
4/5 1.80 -125 55.56 11/4 3.75 275 26.67 100/1 101.00 1000 0.99
5/6 1.83 -120 54.55 14/5 3.80 280 26.32
9/10 1.90 -111 52.63 3/1 4.00 300 25.00
10/11 1.91 -110 52.38 10/3 4.33 333 23.08
1/1 2.00 100 50.00 7/2 4.50 350 22.22
21/20 2.05 105 48.78 4/1 5.00 400 20.00
11/10 2.10 110 47.62 9/2 5.50 450 18.18
10/9 2.11 111 47.37 5/1 6.00 500 16.67
6/5 2.20 120 45.45 11/2 6.50 550 15.38
5/4 2.25 125 44.44 6/1 7.00 600 14.29
13/10 2.30 130 43.48 13/2 7.50 650 13.33
27/20 2.35 135 42.55 7/1 8.00 700 12.50
11/8 2.37 137 42.11 15/8 8.50 750 11.76
7/5 2.40 140 41.67 8/1 9.00 800 11.11
3/2 2.50 150 40.00 17/2 9.50 850 10.53
8/5 2.60 160 38.46 9/1 10.00 900 10.00
13/8 2.62 162 38.10 10/1 11.00 1000 9.09
17/10 2.70 170 37.04 11/1 12.00 1100 8.33
7/4 2.75 175 36.36 12/1 13.00 1200 7.69
CHAPTER 3: THE NOTION OF VALUE
The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of gambling by almost

everyone bar the professionals. It is the very reason that bookmakers are able to
profit on every horse in every race.
Let me explain. If a horse's real chance of winning is 9/1 then it means that if that
horse was allowed to run that exact same race ten times it would win once. The other
nine times it would lose.
If you put £1 on the horse for each of those ten races you would invest £10 in total.
For the one race that the horse won you would receive £10 back from the bookmakers
(including £9 profit and the £1 stake returned). So as you can see in the long run you
would break even.
Now imagine that same horse, with it's 9/1 chance of winning, was priced at 15/1 by
a bookmaker.
Now for those ten races your investment would still be £10. But your return on that
one winning race would now be £16 (including £15 profit and the £1 stake returned).
This means you will have made £6 pure profit or more impressively a 60% return on
investment.
Of course the example above is very simplistic but the model work. Having value in
your profits is the only way to reap long term profits.
Now imagine how many times a bookmaker will make a mistake on one of its prices.
Think of the resources available to Ladbrokes for example. They have teams of
experts studying the form of every horse in every race, not to mention the computer
programs that can crunch years of data in seconds. And all pitted against you – the
punter. Now do you see how hard it is to beat the bookmaker? This is exactly the
reason why so few people can earn a living from gambling.
Furthermore the majority of people like to bet on favourites because they believe this
will give them a better strike rate hence better profits. But guess what? The
favourites offer the worst value out of every horse in the field.
Let me explain. When pricing up horses the bookmakers included an over round on
every horse so that each one represents value for them. To put it another way the
bookmaker wants to be certain that of making a profit in every race. It's up to the
punter to find a horse that the bookie has priced up wrongly and which offers value.
Very tough to do.
Bookmakers work in percentages. Now if the percentage of all the runners in any
given race put together is below 100% then theoretically we can back every horse in
that race and be guaranteed a profit. Of course this never happens.
Below is a screen print of a recent race at Leicester;
As you can see the total starting price is 115%. Which means if we backed every
horse in the race the bookmaker is guaranteed a 15% profit.
That said some horses in that race will have been value bets. If we look at the odds
we can see that the race involved a short priced favourite. Now this favourite didn't
even get a place so we can assume it wasn't a good favourite at all. The reason it was
a short price was because clueless punters put money on it driving its price down.
This is the key point - its when the punters start putting money on horses that the
value a horse offers changes the most.
As I said before most people will back the favourite. The more money that gets put
on a certain horse the lower its odds will go. Simple supply and demand. As the
price gets shorter more and more people put money on it because it is such a 'sure
thing', and the price just gets lower and lower. It's a vicious circle that creates less
value for the punters and more profits for the bookmakers.
However since the advent of the betting exchanges people have been able to copy the
bookmakers and begin making bets with value already built in. In fact on the
exchanges you have advantages over the bookmaker.
You do not have to lay every horse in every race of the day. You get to hand pick the
horses you lay which means you effectively just pick the cream of the bookmakers
business to focus on.
The bookies have done the hard work for you. You will use my system to pick the
favourites with the least chance of winning. Then you simply watch the clueless
punters drive the prices down which in turn gives you more and more value in your
bets.
With this strategy you are guaranteed value in all your bets and as such are
guaranteed long term profits.
In the next section I will discuss the process of laying in more detail.
PART TWO: THE BASICS OF
LAYING
In this section I will explain the concept of laying in more detail. To lay horses you
need to use a betting exchange and so I have included a short guide to Betfair, which
is the exchange you will most likely be using.
CHAPTER 4: WHAT IS LAYING?
Laying horses is not as complicated as you might think. It certainly isn't as

complicated as many people will let you believe.
Laying a horse is like taking on the role of the bookie. It is simply betting that a
horse won't win.
So if you lay a horse and it loses the race your bets wins.
If you lay a horse and it wins the race your bet loses.
Lets run through a quick example so you understand this fully.
We lay a horse called My Sally at odds of 3.00 (2/1 in English odds) for £10
If My Sally wins we have to pay out £20

If My Sally loses we win £10
As you can see the lower the odds the less we have to pay out. This is why my system
focuses on laying short priced favourites. It offers us much less of a risk and higher
value.
To lay a horse you have to use betting exchange. Unlike traditional betting where
there is a bookmaker who sets the odds and punters who either take the offered odds
or walk away, a betting exchange is simply a website where visitors can bet against
other visitors on a range of events.
All bets on the exchange have been placed there by users who either want to place a
bet in the normal way (back), or offer odds to other punters (lay). Bets are matched
between people with opposing views. Just as ebay matches up buyers and sellers via
the internet, betting exchanges' matches up customers who want to strike a wager.
You never know who you are betting against, your privacy and the confidentiality of
your bets is maintained by a secure site.
To become a member you simply have to register a debit or credit card and place
some funds into your account. Once you have done this you can start to use the
account straight away.
There are a number of betting exchanges available on the internet. Below I have
listed a number of exchanges and their URL's.
Betfair is by far the biggest betting exchange in the marketplace. It is the one I
almost always use as it has the most liquidity available.
FREE £20 – If you would like £20 for free, simply sign up to Betfair using
the following link and type in this code – L6UKEEJEE – in the 'Refer and Earn'
box. Your account will then be credited with £20.
http://www.betfair.com
CHAPTER 5: HOW TO USE A BETTING
EXCHANGE
The follow instructions are designed to help you place lay bets using a betting
exchange. The user guide uses Betfair as an example as it is the exchange you are
most likely to use. If you haven't registered you will need to click on the 'Join Now'
button and fill in your details. If you have simply fill in your username and password
and click 'Login'.
The left hand side of the front page will look like
this, and is a list of all the different sports covered.
Click on 'Horse Racing – Todays Card' for a list of

all the races coming up on that day.
Of course if you are laying the night before the

race you will click on 'Horse Racing'
The list of sporting options will change to
show a list of horse races for the day,
happening all over the world, sorted by
time
Simply scroll down and from the list of

races click on the race you are laying in.
Select the race by Time and Course.
Do not select the race meeting to place as

we are only betting on the horse not to
win.
The race meeting will come up on the screen and will look confusing at first but it is
quite straight forward.
To the left we have the name of the horse in bold and the jockey's name underneath.
The first three columns of numbers after the horses' names show the odds for backing
the horse to win, with the best odds in the blue squares.
The decimal figures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount available
to bet with. Basically this means someone else has laid the horse at this price with
the amount of money shown below. They are waiting for someone to accept their
offer.
Ignore these as we are not backing the horses.
The second set of three columns show the odds for the horses losing (i.e. lay bets).
Again the best odds are highlighted in the pink squares. As before the decimal
figures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount available to bet with.
Basically this means someone else is requesting an opportunity to bet a certain
amount at their preferred odds and is waiting for an offer to lay at that price.
Click on the best odds (in the pink square) for the horse you have selected to lay. The
right hand side of the website will now change, showing the horse's name, the odds
selected and asking for the backers stake as follows:
You can change the odds to whatever price you are comfortable offering Type in the
amount you want to lay the horse for in the 'Backer's Stake' box and Betfair will
automatically work out your liability (i.e. The amount you stand to lose if the horse
wins). For advice on what odds to set and the amount to stake please see the chapters
'Laying at the Right Price' and 'Using a Betting Bank' later in this manual.
Once you have done that click on submit in the bottom right hand corner of the page.
You will then be asked to confirm your bet. Click on yes if you are happy with it.
The screen will now change to show whether or not your bet has been matched. If
the bet has been matched, then the bet is placed and you only have to wait for the
results.
If the bet is unmatched you have several options:
You may wait to see if someone else comes along who is prepared to accepts the
odds you have specified.
You can change the odds in order to match a backer who is offering different odds.
Or you can cancel the bet.
It is also possible for your bet to be part-matched. This is where some of your stake
has been matched with a backer, but some has not.
Using Betfair is relatively easy once you get used to it. If you are still unsure of
anything then Betfair offers comprehensive online help. For an easy to follow user
guide simply go to the Betfair website, click on the help menu and then on the view
our demo button.
PART THREE:
UNDERSTANDING THE RACING
POST WEBSITE
In this section I will detail how to navigate around the Racing Post's website. All the
information below is also available in the Daily racing Post newspaper. I prefer to
use the website but of course it is up to you what you use. If you are picking your
selections the night before then you will need to use the website.
The website can be visited by clicking on the link → http://www.racingpost.co.uk
Although other papers include race cards in their horse racing sections we will not be
using them. They do not contain enough information for us to confidently pick a
losing horse.
CHAPTER 6: UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS
Once you enter the main site you will need to register to get access to the useful
information. This is an easy process and should only take a minute or two.
To see the race cards simply click on the relevant date in the top left hand corner of
the screen. Then on the right hand side towards the bottom of the screen you can
pick the meeting you want to browse through.
Once you have done that and clicked on a specific race you will be presented with a
screen similar to the one below.
1.
13.
2.
3.
7.
4.
8.
5.
9.
6.
10.
11.
12.
1. This box contains details about the race itself. In the centre of the box is the
title of the race, followed by the group class and the age limit of the horses
eligible to run. Underneath the title are the details of the prize money available
for the race. On the left hand side of this box are the time of the race and the
number of runners in the race. On the right hand side of the box you will find
the race distance and the going.
2. The number of the horse on the race card (also shown on the horse's
saddlecloth) followed by the number of the draw (the stall from which it has
been drawn to run).
3. The form of the horse (it's most recent last run). A dash indicates the start of
the current season, bold type indicates a result on a different surface to today's
race, ex indicates an additional weight penalty to be carried, d indicates
disqualified.
4. The horse's name and country of birth if not British.
5. The number of days since the horse's last run.
6. Additional information on the horse. D = distance winner, C = course winner,

CD = both course and distance winner, BF = beaten favourite.
7. Age of the horse (horse's birthdays are officially deemed to occur on the 1st of
January in the year of their birth).
8. The official weight the horse must carry (stones and pounds) in this particular
race. t = tongue tie, v = visored, b = blinkered, e/s = eye shields, 1 = 1st time
wearing headgear.
9. The jockey's name with any weight allowances due to age or inexperience
expressed in pounds (to be deducted from the official weight).
10.The Racing Post's own rating of the horse.
11.The actual weight the horse will usually be expected to carry according to it's
official handicap rating (not including any allowances for the jockey or
penalties etc).
12.Forecast of the likely Starting Price odds for each horse.
13.The Racing Post's analysis of the likely outcome.
CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING THE
POSTDATA TABLE
Underneath the card there is the Postdata table. This is a very useful tool for quickly
checking the ability of a horse.
1. 7.
2. 8.
3. 9.
4. 10.
5. 11.
6. 12.
1. The Racing Post's own rating for each horse.
2. Topspeed – The Racing Post's own assessment of each individual horse's race
speed.
3. Official rating – The official handicapper's rating of each individual horse's

race speed.
4. The name of the horse.
5. The Racing Post's own analysis of the trainer's current form.

One tick = in form
Two ticks = in very good form
? = form open to question
X =out of form
- = no runners last 14 days
6. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability on the relevant going.
One tick = proven form on forecast going or on easy/fast ground if going is
soft/firm
Two ticks = proven form on forecast going of soft/heavy or firm/hard
? = unproven on forecast going
- = debut
7. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability to cope with the race
distance.
One tick = proven form around this distance
? = unproven around this distance
- = debut
8. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability over the race course.
One tick = proven form on this course
Two ticks = two or more course wins
? = unproven on this course
- = debut
9. The Racing Posts own analysis of the effects of the draw.

One tick = good draw
Two ticks = very good draw
X = bad draw
- = draw neither good nor bad
10. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability.

One tick = some form within last year
Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top
Three ticks = PM and TS both within 7lb of PM top
? = last run more than a year ago AND no PM rating
X = no adequate form
- = debut
11. The Racing Post's own assessment of the horse's most recent form.
One tick = Some for within the last 60 days
Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top achieved within last 60
days
? = last run more than 60 days ago
- = debut
12. The horse which scores highest on the Postdata table
CHAPTER 8: STUDYING A HORSE'S RACING
HISTORY
To bring up a detailed history of a horse's races simply click on the horse's name in
either the race card or the Postdata table.
A new window detailed below with open up.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1. The name of the horse.
2. Details of the horse's family tree.
3. The lifetime record for the horse's races.
4. The Racing Post's analysis of the horse's chances in the race.
5. This box details every race the horse has competed in. It gives us useful
information about the horses abilities at different surfaces and distances.
To bring up the detailed results of an individual race simply click on the relevant line
in the race outcome column.
A new window detailed below will open up.
This page is useful for the analysis that the Racing Post provides. It may provide
information which will ultimately decide whether we lay the horse or not.
PART FOUR: HOW TO PICK A
LOSING HORSE
To put it simply we are looking for 'false favourites'. That is a horse that the betting
public is putting money behind but which we think will not win. We will do this by
looking at important data that the majority of people don't bother with.
There are literally a hundred factors that affect the outcome of a horse race. Some
people spend hours and hours studying as many of these as possible and still don't get
anywhere.
The majority of the punters, I call sheep, base everything on form. Anything from
80-90% of a price is going to be based on recent form. This is no coincidence. The
bookmakers know that most of the money bet by punters is based on form in some
way. Further to this media pundits and newspapers tipsters are obsessed with form.
You'll often see a so called expert on TV going on about a horse that has great form.
Punters see and read this and it sways their betting opinion.
All this means is that if a horse is running well it will be massively overbet by the
public and there is value to be had in laying it.
A horses' “form” is simply a record of a horses' recent performances. Basically has

the horse been running well lately? Whilst it is obviously an important factor in the
race outcome, it is certainly not the be all and end all.
For example a horse that won last time out will always be overbet. Now I'm not
saying that form doesn't count and I'm certainly not suggesting you lay every horse
than won last time out.
Another reason some horse's are 'false favourites' are because of their stable
connections. This will usually be the case in races where the horses are
inexperienced. So the lazy punter will simply put his money on the horse with the
most high profile jockey or trainer.
We, however, have to delve a little deeper and study the main factors beyond form
that affect the result of a race.
There are two types of horse racing in the U.K. - Flat Racing and National Hunt
(Jump) Racing.
CHAPTER 9: LAYING HORSES – FLAT
RACING
These races are run over distances ranging from 5 furlongs (5/8 mile or 1000m) to 20
furlongs (2 ½ miles or 4000m) and are started from stalls. As the name suggests
there are no obstacles in flat racing. The flat season runs from mid-March to mid-
November although flat races do still take place in the winter. Flat horses mature
quickly and start running as 2 or 3-year-olds.
Flat races are either run on turf or All Weather (AW) tracks. The AW tracks are
comprised of sand and are a completely different kettle of fish to the turf tracks.
There are two types of races on the flat – Stakes and Handicaps.
In stakes all the horses carry the same weight. However in handicaps the horses all
carry different weights. The weight a horse carries is based on their ability which is
assessed by the official handicapper. The highest rated horse carries the most weight
and the one at the bottom carries the least. Theoretically every horses has the same
chance of winning.
The favourites only win about 28% of handicap races. This gives us plenty of scope
for laying. Even more impressive are the stats for odds-on favourites in handicap
races.
Statistics show that if you had 'layed' every odds-on favourite in handicaps for the last
10 years you would have made a 20% return on your investment. This is a staggering
statistic and is down to the public overbetting on the favourite and guaranteeing you
value.
There are also different types of races depending on the quality of the field. We will
be looking to lay horses in all these races.
Maidens – These are for horses that have never won a race before.
Conditions Races – Once a horse has won a maiden it can compete in conditions
races. These are for winners of a race or winners of races of a certain value.
Listed Races – Once a horse has won a conditions race it can be entered into a listed
race.
Group Races – These are the most prestigious races for a horse on the flat. There are
three groups 1, 2 and 3. Group 1 races are the most prestigious and carry the most
prize money.
Other types of races include; Auction races, Claiming races, and Selling races. WE
DO NOT LAY ANY HORSES IN THESE RACES. This is because the horses
involved are mediocre at best and it is very hard to be sure of laying the favourite.
CHAPTER 10: STEP 1 – PRIMARY WARNING
SIGNS – FLAT RACING
Now I am going to take you through the essential details to look at when deciding
which horse to lay. The five factors below are the primary variables you will need to
assess the favourite on. We need our horse to have a question mark concerning it's
ability on at least one of these factors.
PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS
GOING
The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The
descriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm.
The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally
well on any type of going but many have a preference.
What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going
before (this will usually be in maiden races), or a favourite with a poor record on that
particular going.
This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has
been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being
soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor.
BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known
that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If
the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are
to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be.
DISTANCE
Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. Some
horses are better at sprinting whilst others have more stamina and prefer longer races.
As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance.
You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Firstly a horse that is stepping
up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the shorter
distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be
questioned. Even at the shorter sprints a step up of a furlong can be significant.
Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you
might have a horse with excellent form over 1 mile but has had a couple of dodgy
runs over 12 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 12 furlongs it is a possible laying
opportunity.
BONUS TIP – Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses
are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most
recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 1.5
furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be
classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor
when deciding which horse to lay.
CLASS
As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of the
entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing
against better opposition than it has before.
What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions race
simply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself up
against horses who have also won their own maidens.
As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class
category depending on the prize money available.
The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:
FLAT CLASS SYSTEM

3yo+ 2yo 3yo+ 2yo
Cls 1 Group 1.......................... £200k £165k Cls 3 76-95..... £12.5k £11k
Group 2.......................... £90k £70k Cls 4 66-85..... £8.5k £7k
Group 3.......................... £50k £40k Cls 5 56-75..... £5k £5k
Listed incl 96-110 £28k £23.5k Cls 6 46-65..... £3.5k £3.5k
Cls 2 hcps.. £45k - Cls 7 0-50....... incl regional bands A-D £2k
Heritage open hcps........ - £20k
nurseries......................... £18k £13k
86-110............................
The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money
available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst.
We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time.
FIRST TIME RUNNER
If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying.
Usually the horse will be a 2 year old and will be running in a maiden.
2 year olds are very inexperienced animals and it is impossible to gauge how well
they will react to their first outing on the race course. Some horses take to races like
a duck to water whereas others need several races to get used to it all.
The horse will be a short favourite due to its stable connections. Either it will have a
popular trainer or the owner will have paid a lot of money for it. Just because it has a
tall reputation this does not mean it will run well.
SURFACE
As explain previously the conditions of the ground have a huge impact on a horse's
running ability. Hence a change of surface for a horse is also a big factor. If a horse
is running on sand or turf for the first time then we will look to oppose it if other
factors are also in our favour.
You will often find a consistent performer on the turf being a favourite on its AW
debut but failing to live up to its reputation. It will often take time for a horse to
familiarise itself with a new surface.
Over the past 10 years laying horses on AW tracks has been more profitable than on
the turf. One main reason for this is because punters try to apply turf form and
ratings to the all weather. They will overbet a favourite if it has done exceptionally
well on the turf.
BONUS TIP – Laying favourites on the AW is most profitable during the winter.
This is because the flat season has finished and a lot of the form horses move on to
the AW with good reputations and short prices, only to get beaten because they are
not used to the surface.
WEIGHT
The weight the horse is carrying is the final factor we need to assess. More often
than not in stakes races every horse will be carrying the same weight and any slight
differences are negligible.
However it is in handicaps that weight becomes of the utmost importance. We need
to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One
way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it is
carrying significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over
the horse.
Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the
race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out.
BONUS TIP – We do not lay favourites with 7+lbs penalty on the AW tracks as they
statistically tend to run well.
TRAINER'S COURSE-WIN PERCENTAGE
This primary warning sign is different to the rest in that it can warn us off laying a
favourite rather than being a factor in our favour.
This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular
course. It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we should
not lay.
Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for each
course. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it's
horses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closest
to the stable.
When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar
to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc. This gives it an
immediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions.
Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriously
temperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track
which as you would expect worsens their performance.
I don't lay any horses where the trainer-course percentage is over 30%. In fact
sometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. For example if the
trainer of the favourite has a win percentage of 25% and the next highest for the race
is only 10% I will often disregard this favourite and look at another race.
CHAPTER 11: STEP 2 – EVALUATING THE
OPPOSITION
After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potential
favourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you
are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the
favourite.
To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for
at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite.
Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the
trap of spending hours reading form.
We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite.
Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as
well as how many lengths it won or lost by.
One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner
they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite.
The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain
class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5
events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5
events.
Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in
the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite.
The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical
examples I will take you through in a moment.
CHAPTER 12: STEP 3 – SECONDARY
WARNING SIGNS – FLAT RACING
This is the final part of the system. Once you have completed the first two processes
you may have more than one qualifier. I use the following factors to build up a
bigger picture of each race which helps me decide which favourite to lay.
SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS
These factors are not as important to the outcome of a race as the primary factors but
they still play a part and so need to be taken into consideration.
DAYS SINCE LAST RUN
This used to be a crucial factor within horse racing but new and improved training
methods have lessened its importance. We need to be on the lookout for a horse that
has not run for 60 days or is running again within 4 days of it's last run.
If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same
principle as a football player lacking 'match practice'. However it is important to
study the horse's previous race history. Some horses are notoriously good at coming
back from a long lay off so if a horse has a history of this we need to exercise
caution.
If a horse runs within 4 days of it's last run it here is a chance it might not have
recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina. But again some
horses can run well several days in a row so check it's past race history to be sure.
BONUS TIP - The exception to this rule is races on the AW tracks. Statistics show
that favourites returning within 7 days on AW tracks have a good winning strike rate.
DRAW
The draw is simply the starting stall position of a horse. The lower the number the
closer it is to the inside rail. On some tracks this can be quite an important factor.
Below I have included a course-by-course list that sums up the generally regarded
opinion of the draw factor at all thirty-four flat courses in Britain.
Ascot No significant advantage, although low numbers are
favoured on the straight course in soft going.
Ayr Low numbers favoured in big fields on the straight
course, especially when the going is soft.
Bath Apparently little effect though the five-furlong
course here is on a gradual left-hand bend which
might be thought to favour low numbers.
Beverley High numbers up to 8f-noticeably favoured in 5f
races. It seems low favoured on soft ground.
Brighton Low numbers favoured in sprint races but high
numbers when the going is soft.
Carlisle High numbers seem to have an advantage in races up
to one mile.
Catterick Over five furlongs low numbers appear to be
favoured except when the ground is soft when high
numbers seem to have an advantage. 0ver six and
seven furlongs low numbers are favoured.
Chepstow No marked advantage either side.
Chester Low draw numbers appear to be favoured in sprints,
but the crucial factor here is a quick break
irrespective of the draw.
Doncaster High numbers seem to be the best on the straight
course, whereas low numbers used to have a
noticeable advantage in big fields when the going is
soft, but the effect is becoming increasingly difficult
to predict.
Epsom Downs High numbers are strongly favoured over five
furlongs, a bit less so over six furlongs. Low
numbers seem best from 7f to 10f.
Folkestone Quite a significant advantage for high numbers in
sprint races
Goodwood Little effect although perhaps low numbers are best
in sprints, though a fast start is equally important.
Hamilton Middle to high numbers best in sprints, especially on
soft ground.
Haydock Park High numbers favoured in sprints, especially when
the going is soft.
Kempton Park On the sprint course a high number is advantageous
when stalls are on the far side (especially in softer
ground), a low number when the stalls are on the
stands side. High numbers usually best on round
course.
Leicester Middle to high numbers favoured on the straight
course.
Lingfield Park Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints on the all-
weather course: on the turf course high numbers
appear to be favoured.
Musselburgh High numbers favoured in races up to 8f.
Newbury No significant advantage, but perhaps high numbers
best in large fields, especially in very soft ground.
Newcastle On the straight course horses drawn towards either
rail seem to have an advantage when the going is
normal, but low numbers are especially favoured on
the straight course in soft/heavy ground.
Newmarket Little significant advantage over any distance on
either the Rowley Mile or the July Course.
Nottingham High numbers favoured in sprint races when stalls on
stands side, low numbers when stalls on far side.
Pontefract Low numbers favoured in sprint races.
Redcar Middle to high numbers favoured on the straight
course.
Ripon Low numbers appear favoured on the straight course
except when the going is soft/heavy.
Salisbury Low numbers tend to be favoured in sprint races on
soft going.
Sandown Park On the five-furlong course high numbers have an
advantage when the ground is soft and when the
stalls are placed on the far side; low numbers are
favoured when the stalls are on the stands side.
Southwell No advantage in straight five furlongs: low draw
favoured over six and seven furlongs.
Thirsk Significant advantage for high numbers on the
straight course, more pronounced when the ground is
fast. Low numbers best at 7f & 1m.
Warwick Low numbers favoured in shorter races except when
the going is soft, in which case the stands side tends
to run faster.
Wexford High numbers best.
Windsor High numbers favoured in sprints.
Wolverhampton Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints.
Yarmouth High numbers slightly favoured on the straight
course, especially in large fields.
York Little effect either way. Perhaps low to middle
numbers best on the straight track, especially when
soft going prevails.
FIELD SIZE
This is simply the number of horses in a race. The higher the size of the field the
better. The more runners there are the more chance the favourite will be held up by
another horse. This factor is more important in maidens than other races. Often you
will see inexperienced horses getting in each other's way in these races.
IS THE FAVOURITE A LAST TIME OUT WINNER?
If the favourite won it's last race then this will guarantee us more value in our lay.
Most of the public overbet a LTO winner and this gives the favourite lower odds than
it deserves.
JOCKEY
Some horses run better when they have a certain jockey riding them. This doesn't
necessarily mean that an experienced jockey will be best. Each jockey has a different
technique of racing. Some like to push their horse hard while others prefer to be
gentler. Obviously some horses run better depending how they are treated during the
race.
To quickly see if a horse and jockey are a good partnership glance at the racing
history of the horse to see if the jockey has been placed on that horse before. If it
hasn't then it is quite possible they do not work well together and this could be
another factor in our favour.
TOPSPEED
On the postdata table The Racing Post make an assessment of each individual horse's
race speed. If the favourite has a top speed rating lower than 75% of the highest
rating this is another factor in our favour and suggests the horse may struggle.
SEX OF THE HORSE
This has no bearing on the regular turf tracks but it can be important on the AW
tracks. A relatively unknown fact is that female horses perform badly on the sand. If
a short priced favourite is a filly or a mare, and other factors are conducive, it is ripe
for laying.
FORM
Counter-intuitively the final thing I check is form. Generally the favourite will be in
form but it's important to check anyway. We are not concerned with finishing
position but how far it won or lost by.
Most punters simply look at the finishing position but we will look a little deeper.
We want to check whether the horse finished within ½ length per furlong of the
winner in its last 2 runs. If it did then I class this as good form if it didn't then I class
this as out of form.
This means it is quite possible for the favourite to have finished 2nd on it's previous
two runs and still be classed as out of form.
Of course if a favourite has won it's last two runs then that is considered very good
form. If it won the races by more than ½ length per furlong then I consider this
excellent form.
I also check the form of the horses in the race I have identified as potential rivals to
the favourite.
CHAPTER 13: STEP 4 – BRINGING IT ALL
TOGETHER
Once you've carried out the first three steps of the system you may have a list of
several qualifiers and you need to decide which one to lay.
I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way.
I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have.
Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total them
up. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box.
However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the
biggest total, although that is generally the case. I like to look at the bigger picture.
For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of
opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors.
This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of
your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more and
more horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds.
Flat Racing
PRIMARY Horse 1 Horse 2 Horse 3 Horse 4

WARNING
SIGNS
GOING
DISTANCE
CLASS
1ST TIME
RUNNER
SURFACE
WEIGHT
TRAINER
OPPOSITION
HOW MANY
RIVALS
SECONDARY
WARNING
SIGNS
DAYS SINCE
LAST RUN
DRAW
FIELD SIZE
LTO WINNER?
JOCKEY
TOPSPEED
SEX OF THE
HORSE
FORM
TOTAL
CHAPTER 14: EXAMPLE 1
EXAMPLE 1 – 2YO STAKES – MUSSELBURGH
The above card comes from a class 4 2YO stakes at Musselburgh over 5f on good-
firm ground. The betting forecast shows the favourite is Stir Crazy with a tissue price
of 11/4.
Primary Warning Signs
Looking at the Postdata table there are no immediate warning signs. The horse has a
tick for both the going and the distance so we have to look in further detail at it's
racing history.
We can immediately see that Stir Crazy is carrying more weight than it ever has
before. It is carrying 8lbs more and in fact is carrying the heaviest penalty in the race.
As this horse is inexperienced I feel this increase in weight is significant enough to
count against the horse. Furthermore looking back at the horse's history it's only win
came when it was carrying significantly less weight than in today's race.
We can also see that the horse is stepping up in class from it's previous race. Stir
Crazy has done relatively well in class 5 events but when raced in a class 3 it was
well beaten. Today's race is a class 4 event and I feel this is enough of a step up to
count as a warning sign in our favour.
Finally looking at the trainer's course-win percentage below we can see that the
favourite's trainer, M R Channon has a win percentage of 14%. This is not enough to
scare us from laying this horse.
So we have two primary warning signs in our favour – weight and class – and this is
enough for us to proceed.
Opposition
Now we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we
can find one with similar ability to our favourite.
The Mighty Ogmore looks to be a very serious challenger to our favourite.
It is carrying more weight than it ever has before which is the only primary warning
sign against it (although it is sill 5lbs lighter than the favourite).
The favourite has only performed well in class 5 events but this horse has won a class
4 event in its previous race and seems to be getting better and better with every run.
This horse certainly matches the favourite in terms of ability.
Emma Told Lies is another horse with only 1 primary warning sign against it. Like
the favourite it is moving up in class.
This horse has had similar race results to that of our favourite. In fact Emma Told
Lies has won two class 5 events previously giving it more wins than the favourite.
This is certainly another horse with the potential to win the race.
Granny Peel is also stepping up in class and has question marks over her weight
which puts her on a par with the favourite.
This horse has also won a class 5 event before and overall has a better racing history
than Stri Crazy. Granny peel has been placed in every one of it's races and has won 4
times before.
This horse certainly has as much chance of winning the race as the favourite.
Secondary Warning Signs
Finally we need to see what secondary warning signs are in our favour to see if we
can strengthen our position on laying this horse.
Looking at the days since last run figure we can see that Stir Crazy last ran 1 day ago.
This is certainly in our favour as the horse is unlikely to have fully recovered from
this race and this will effect it's performance.
According to the Racing Post the draw favours no horse. But looking at my table
above which goes into more detail we can see that high numbers are a slight
advantage up to 8f at Musselburgh. Stir Crazy is in stall 2 and will have no such
advantage.
Conclusion
There are two primary warning signs in our favour:
● Stir Crazy is carrying more weight than it ever has before which will hamoer
its progress.
● Stir Crazy is stepping up in class and will be racing better horses than
previously.
We have identified 3 other horses in the race which we believe have the ability to
beat the favourite.
Finally there are two secondary warning signs in our favour:
● Stir Crazy last run was only 1 day ago and so the horse will be tired.
● Other horses in the race have the benefit of a better draw.
Stir Crazy is a definite lay for me.
THE RESULT
In the end the outsider won the race . It wasn't a horse I identified as a threat because
it did not seem to have the ability to win the race, but it has proved me wrong.
This shows the great thing about laying. Often an outsider that you don't even
consider can come from nowhere and beat the favourite.
EXAMPLE 2 - HANDICAP - WINDSOR
The above card comes from a class 5 handicap at Brighton over 6m209y on firm
ground. For some reason the Racing Post has not published the tissue prices for the
horses. When this happens simply check on Betfair to see what the favourite is. In
this race the favourite was High Class Problem.
Looking at the postdata table we can immediately see that the favourite has a
question mark over the going. Looking at the horse's race history below we can see
that High Class Problem has never raced on firm ground before.
This represents the only real primary warning sign for the favourite although we can
see that this isn't really a horse of great ability as it's previous best run was a 4th place.
It's seems this horse is not really any great shakes in class 5 events.
Furthermore the horse will be carrying 3lb more than it ever has before. Whilst this
is not enough to count as a warning sign it certainly puts more doubt in the ability of
the horse to win the race.
favourite's trainer, P F I Cole has a win percentage of 9%. This is not enough to scare
us from laying this horse.
Opposition
Next we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we
Elusive Warrior has no primary warning signs against it's name and seems to be more
than a match for the favourite as it has won a class 5 event on it's previous run.
Danish Blues is another horse no primary warning signs against it's name and has the
potential to beat the favourite here. Whilst this horse has not won a race before it has
had similar results to the favourite and must be considered.
Cindertrack is carrying the heaviest penalty in the race and weight might be a
problem.
But it is another horse yet to win a race but with results comparable to the favourite
and has the potential to win this one.
According to the Racing Post the draw has no effect but looking at my more detailed
table on page 37 we can see that in sprints low numbers are favoured. Our horse is
running from stall 7 and will receive no advantage.
The jockey has never ridden this horse before and that counts in our favour as the
jockey will have no feel for the horse in a racing situation.
Conclusion
There is one primary warning sign in our favour:
● High Class Problem has never raced on firm ground before. This is the hardest
surface there is and it may not be to the horse's liking.
beat the favourite.
Finally there are two secondary warning signs in our favour:
● Other horses in the race have the benefit of a better draw.

● The jockey has not ridden this horse before.
High Class Problem is another good choice for a lay.
THE RESULT
Another successful lay as our favourite came second.
The winner Cindertrack was one of the horses I identified as a major threat and so it
proved with a comfortable victory.
CHAPTER 16: LAYING HORSES – NATIONAL
HUNT (JUMP) RACING
In National Hunt racing the horses are made to jump a number of obstacles
throughout the course. The courses are at least 2 miles (16 furlongs) long and the
horses are started from a tape barrier. Jump horses mature more slowly and don't run
until they are 4 or 5-year-olds. Jump racing goes on all year round but its main
season runs from November until the end of April.
There are 2 main types of jump race, each with different sized barriers.
Steeplechases (Chases) - In these races the horses are made to jump 'fences' which
vary in size. These are the biggest obstacles a horse will have to face. The Grand
National is the most prestigious steeplechase event in the U.K.
Hurdles - In these races the horses are made to jump over obstacles measuring about
3 feet 1 inch in height.
Another type of jump race is Point to Point Races - These races are run over fences
on designated farmland throughout the country in the Spring and Autumn. This is
basically the nursery for young jump horses who will progress to jump over hurdles
and fences. We will not be looking at laying horses in point to point races.
In jump racing there are also handicaps and non-handicap races.
Like on the flat there are different types of races depending on the quality of the field.
Maidens – As with the flat maidens are run by horses who have never won before.
Novices – These are for horses who have not won a race prior to that season. When a
horse wins a novice race it can still compete in novices for the rest of that season but
it has to carry a weight penalty.
Bumpers – Also called National Hunt Flat Races. These are special flat races for
young jump horses.
Other types of races include; Auction races, Claiming races, and Selling races. WE
DO NOT LAY ANY HORSES IN THESE RACES. This is because the horses
involved are always mediocre at best and it is very hard to be sure of laying the
favourite.
CHAPTER 17: STEP 1 – PRIMARY WARNING
SIGNS – JUMP RACING
Many of the variables for jump racing are similar to that of flat racing but I will take
you through them one by one as there are subtle differences.
PRIMARY VARIABLES
GOING
The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The
descriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm.
The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally
well on any type of going but many have a preference.
What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going
before (this will usually be in novice races), or a favourite with a poor record on that
particular going.
This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has
been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being
soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor.
BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known
that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If
the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are
to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be.
BONUS TIP 2 – Watch out for a flat horse specialist jumping for the first time on
soft ground. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before
and the sticky soft ground will test the horse's stamina.
DISTANCE
Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. In jump
racing you don't get sprints but the races still vary in distance. Some horses are better
at the medium length races of 2 miles while others prefer longer distances (3 miles+)
that are a real test of stamina.
You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Either a horse that is stepping
up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the medium
distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be
questioned.
Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you
might have a horse with excellent form over 2 miles but has had a couple of dodgy
runs over 20 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 20 furlongs it is a possible laying
opportunity.
BONUS TIP – Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses
are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most
recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 4
furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be
classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor
when deciding which horse to lay.
BONUS TIP 2 – Distance is a particular warning for a flat horse specialist jumping
for the first time. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump
before and jump races are usually longer than flat races so the horses' stamina will be
severely tested.
CLASS
As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of the
entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing
against better opposition than it has before.
What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions
race simply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself
up against horses who have also won their own maidens.
As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class
category depending on the prize money available.
The table below summarises the different classes for jump races:
JUMP CLASS SYSTEM
Chase NovChs Hurdle NovHur NHFlat
Cls 1 Grade 1 £100k £50k £75k £40k £25k
Grade 2 incl limited hcps £50k £32k £40k £28k £20k
Grade 3 open hcps £50k £45k
Listed £25k £20k £22k £18k £15k
Cls 2 Open hcps £23k £18k £18k
0-140+ £20k £14k £14k
Cls 3 0-115/135 £10k £8k £8k
Cls 4 0-100/115 £5.5-10k £4.5-8k £4.5-8k
Cls 5 0-85/95 £3.5-5.5k £3.2-4.5k £3.2-4.5k
Cls 6 HuntCh & NHF £1.6 – 3.5k £2.5-3.2k
The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money
available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 6 the worst.
We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time or horses
which have had bad results in a certain class.
FIRST TIME HURDLER
If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying.
Horses who are jumping for the first time can be two different types of horse. Either
they have been bred as a national hunt horse or they are a flat-bred horse jumping for
the first time.
Once again it is impossible to tell how a horse will react to it's first hurdle race. Even
if the horse has been racing on the flat before it will have experienced nothing like a
hurdles race before.
Again if a horse is a short favourite it could simply be due to its stable connections.
Or it may have been a horse with good results on the flat and so automatically gets
favouritism.
BONUS TIP – First time hurdlers will be competing in novice hurdle events. These
are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a
horse will take to hurdling. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses
who often bring each other down over the obstacles.
FIRST TIME CHASER
If a horse is a short favourite on its first chase then again that is a great opportunity
for laying. Any horse that chases will have been a hurdler at some point.
But the fences in a steeplechase are a lot bigger than hurdles and even if a horse is a
great hurdler it may not make a great chaser.
If we see a short favourite who has never chased before have ourselves a laying
opportunity.
BONUS TIP – First time chasers will be competing in novice chase events. These
are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a
horse will take to chasing. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses
who often bring each other down over the obstacles.
WEIGHT
The weight the horse is carrying is the final factor we need to assess. Over jumps this
factor is important in non-handicaps as well.
Once a horse wins a novice event it is allowed to compete in other novice races for
the rest of the season. However it must carry a weight penalty. This gives up lots of
laying opportunities. Often a horse who has one a novice event will be favourite for
the next race due to it's form. However many punters do not take into account the
extra weight it is carrying and blindly back it. Often you will see these favourites
losing their next race.
As with flat racing, weight is very important in handicaps. We need to decide if the
weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One way to do this
is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it is carrying
significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over the horse.
Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the
race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out.
TRAINER'S COURSE-WIN PERCENTAGE
This primary warning sign is different to the rest in that it can warn us off laying a
favourite rather than being a factor in our favour.
This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular
course. It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we should
not lay.
Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for each
course. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it's
horses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closest
to the stable.
When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar
to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc. This gives it an
immediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions.
Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriously
temperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track
which as you would expect worsens their performance.
I don't lay any horses where the trainer-course percentage is over 30%. In fact
sometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. For example if the
trainer of the favourite has a win percentage of 25% and the next highest for the race
is only 10% I will often disregard this favourite and look at another race.
CHAPTER 18: STEP 2 – EVALUATING THE
OPPOSITION
After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potential
favourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you
are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the
favourite.
To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for
at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite.
Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the
trap of spending hours reading form.
We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite.
Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as
well as how many lengths it won or lost by.
One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner
they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite.
The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain
class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5
events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5
events.
Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in
the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite.
The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical
examples I will take you through in a moment.
CHAPTER 19: STEP 3 – SECONDARY
WARNING SIGNS – JUMP RACING
Once we have found our favourites with at least one question mark over their ability
we need to choose which one we are going to lay. We do this by considering a
second level of factors.
SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS
These factors are not as important to the outcome of a race as the primary factors but
they still play a part and so need to be taken into consideration.
DAYS SINCE LAST RUN
This used to be an important factor within horse racing but new and improved
training methods have lessened its importance. We need to be on the lookout for a
horse that has not run for 60 days or is running again within 7 days of it's last run.
If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same
principle as a football player lacking 'match practise'. However it is important to
study the horse's previous race history. Some horses are notoriously good at coming
back from a long lay off so if a horse has a history of this we need to exercise
caution.
If a horse runs within 7 days of it's last run it here is a chance it might not have
recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina. But again some
horses can run well several days in a row so check it's past race history to be sure.
FIELD SIZE
This is simply the number of horses in a race. The higher the size of the field the
better. This has more significance over jumps than it has on the flat. With National
Hunt racing the more horses there are jostling for position over the jumps the more
chance there is of horses bringing each other down.
Like on the flat this factor is more important in races where there are inexperienced
horses racing together such as novice hurdles and novice chases.
IS THE FAVOURITE A LAST TIME OUT WINNER?
If the favourite won it's last race then this will guarantee us more value in our lay.
Most of the public overbet a LTO winner and this gives the favourite lower odds than
it deserves.
JOCKEY
Some horses run better when they have a certain jockey riding them. This doesn't
necessarily mean that an experienced jockey will be best. Each jockey has a different
technique of racing. Some like to push their horse hard while others prefer to be
gentler. Obviously some horses run better depending how they are treated during the
race.
To quickly see if a horse and jockey are a good partnership glance at the racing
history of the horse to see if the jockey has been placed on that horse before. If it
hasn't then it is quite possible they do not work well together and this could be
another factor in our favour.
This is another factor that is more important in National Hunt racing due to the nature
of jumping over obstacles. The jockey and the horse have to be in tune or there is a
high risk the horse will fall or refuse to jump.
TOPSPEED
On the postdata table The Racing Post make an assessment of each individual horse's
race speed. If the favourite has a top speed rating lower than 75% of the highest
rating this is another factor in our favour and suggests the horse may struggle.
AGE OF THE HORSE
Horses tend to jump better the older they get. The younger horses have more eratic
results and have a greater chance of falling. Horses 5 years old and young get a black
mark here.
FORM
Counter-intuitively the final thing I check is form. Generally the favourite will be in
form but it's important to check anyway. We are not concerned with finishing
position but how far it won or lost by.
Most punters simply look at the finishing position but we will look a little deeper.
We want to check whether the horse finished within ½ length per furlong of the
winner in its last 2 runs. If it did then I class this as good form if it didn't then I class
this as out of form.
This means it is quite possible for the favourite to have finished 2nd on it's previous
two runs and still be classed as out of form.
Of course if a favourite has won it's last two runs then that is considered very good
form. If it won the races by more than ½ length per furlong then I consider this
excellent form.
I also check the form of the horses in the race I have identified as potential rivals to
the favourite.
CHAPTER 20: STEP 4 – BRINGING IT ALL
TOGETHER
Once you've carried out the first three steps of the system you may have a list of
several qualifiers and you need to decide which one to lay.
I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way.
I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have.
Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total them
up. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box.
However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the
biggest total, although that is generally the case. I like to look at the bigger picture.
For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of
opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors.
This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of
your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more and
more horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds.
Jump Racing
PRIMARY Horse 1 Horse 2 Horse 3 Horse 4

WARNING
SIGNS
GOING
DISTANCE
CLASS
1ST TIME
HURDLER
1ST TIME
CHASER
WEIGHT
TRAINER
OPPOSITION
HOW MANY
RIVALS
SECONDARY
WARNING
SIGNS
DAYS SINCE
LAST RUN
DRAW
FIELD SIZE
LTO WINNER?
JOCKEY
TOPSPEED
AGE OF HORSE
FORM
TOTAL
EXAMPLE 3 – NOVICE HURDLE - STRATFORD
The above card comes from a class 3 handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m6f110y on
good-firm ground. Looking at the betting forecast the favourite is Onward To Glory
with a tissue price of 11/4.
Looking at the Postdata table there are no immediate warning signs. The horse has a
tick for both the going and the distance so we have to look in further detail at the
racing history.
We can see that the favourite has never raced in a class 3 event before. It will now be
racing against stronger opposition than it has ever faced.
favourite's trainer, P J Hobbs has a win percentage of 29%. This is a relatively high
percentage but looking at the other trainers' figures it is not enough to scare us from
laying this horse.
Opposition
Next we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we
The Rising Moon has a question mark over the going but has a lot of experience with
racing in high class races and has even won a class 3 hurdle before.
This horse definitely has the ability to win this race.
Harrycat has one primary warning sign against it's name – it has a question mark over
the distance.
But like our favourite, HarryCat has also won a class 4 hurdle before but more
importantly has won a class 3 hurdle as well.
This horse is definitely in with a chance of winning this one.
Gaelic Roulette has no primary warning signs against it and is another horse that has
won a class 4 hurdle before and as such must be considered worthy of winning this
race.
Rosemauve is carrying the biggest weight penalty of all the horses but it has
performed well at this weight before and it may not be a problem.
Thus horse looks like a serious challenger as it has run very well in class 3 hurdle
events before.
Onward To Glory has not raced for 64 days and so has no discernible form.
There are 15 runners in this race which is a large field and gives us more chance that
the favourite will be hampered during the race.
Onward to Glory was a last time out winner which means it will be overbet by the
betting public giving us better value.
The jockey P Brennan has only raced on the horse once and in that race the horse was
soundly beaten. This could mean the two do not suit each other which is another
factor in our favour.
The Racing Posts top speed rating for Onward To Glory is only 70% of that of Dr
Cerullo and so the favourite may struggle to keep pace.
Conclusion
There is one primary warning sign in our favour:
● Onward To Glory is stepping up in class for this race and has not raced aginst
this quality of opposition before.
beat the favourite.
Finally there are five secondary warning signs in our favour:
● The favourite has not raced for 64 days and so is out of running practice.
● The field size of 15 is large and there is more chance the favourite will be
hampered.
● Onward To Glory was a last time out winner and as such will give us more
value.
● The jockey has only run once on the horse before and was soundly beaten
● The favourite's topspeed rating is only 70% of the highest for the race and as
such may struggle to keep pace..
Onward To Glory is another good choice for a lay.
THE RESULT
As we can see our favourite came fifth.
The eventual winner was Harrycat, one of the potential rivals I picked out before the
race. Harrycat was amazingly priced at 20/1 which was a ridiculous price
considering it's past results.
Still that doesn't concern us. All we need to know is that we've had another
successful lay.
PART FIVE: MAXIMISING
PROFITS
OK so you've learn how to pick losing horses now its time to pick up some
techniques which will help you to maximise your profits.
CHAPTER 22: LAYING AT THE RIGHT PRICE
We have discussed how to find horses to lay now we must focus on what price to lay
at. If we are too generous with our odds we will be destroying any value we have in
the bets.
It is best to lay the horse as close to the race start as possible. Around 90% of bets
are place in the “liveshow” period before a race. This takes place around 10 minutes
before the race starts. As we are laying the favourite we are almost guaranteed that
our horses' price will drift in the most.
However sometimes we might find that our horse's price drifts out so much that it is
no longer the favourite. In this instance the other punters have obviously realised,
like we did, that there are doubts over it's ability. In this circumstance it really is up
to you how to proceed. If you're convinced the horse won't win you might still want
to lay it or the price might drift so far out that you don't want to take a risk.
I have a rule where I don't lay any horse over 5.00 on the exchanges. I feel the risk is
not worth the payout if it wins. There are some people who lay up to 30.00 and
above but I certainly wouldn't recommend this. These people presume that these
horses have no chance of winning and that it is low risk. But it only takes one winner
every thirty bets to completely wipe out your profit and we all know big priced
winners happen now and again.
If I was you I would set a maximum price and stick to it at all costs. It will be better
for you profits in the long run.
Of course some of you will not be able to lay just before the race due to other
commitments. You will have to set a price before hand. To get an idea what odds to
give you should use the Racing Post's tissue prices as a guide. In addition you can
check and see what prices other punters are giving on Betfair.
CHAPTER 23: USING A BETTING BANK
It is essential to use a betting bank if you want long term profits. Every serious
professional will have a betting bank and use a sensible staking plan. Someone who
takes a disciplined approach to betting will always be more profitable than the one
who follows a haphazard system.
Given that we are laying favourites we have to expect some results to go against us
from time to time. Hence our staking plan must be sensible enough to cover any
losses. We want our betting bank to grow steadily and in time your bets will become
bigger and bigger. Don't forget it is possible to lose your entire betting bank if you
are careless so only bet with money you can afford to lose.
We want to be risking 5% of the betting bank on every horse. That is to say if the
horse wins the race we have to pay out 5% of our total bank. This is a small enough
figure to cover our losing bets.
For example if your betting bank is £1000 the most we want to lose on any bet is £50.
So if the horse is priced at 5.00 you will be staking £10 on it to lose.
CHAPTER 24: FINAL THOUGHTS
In this manual you have everything you will ever need to begin successfully laying
horses. If you have no experience with horse racing you might want to re-read
several sections of this ebook until you understand everything fully.
I would wholly recommend that you begin by paper trading and don't risk any money
for the first week. This will give you time to get used to the practice of laying horses.
Don't forget you will lay winning horses from time to time. This is inevitable. When
it happens study the race in more depth to see if there was anything you missed. If
there was, learn from it and move on to the next lay.
Good luck and enjoy your extra income!
Kristian Jackman
Author – 'How to Lay Favourites for a Living'.

Betfair Betting System How To Lay Favourites For A Living

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Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved 1

Copyright © 2006 by Kristian Jackman

Congratulations on purchasing a copy of 'How to Lay Favourites for a Living'. What

Part 1: The Basics of Gambling.................................................................................................................................................................. 6

Chapter 2: Understanding Odds and Percentages................................................................................................................................. 7

Chapter 3: The Notion of Value...................................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Part 2: The Basics of Laying............................................................................................................................................................................. 15

Chapter 4: What is Laying?................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16

Chapter 5: How to use a Betting Exchange................................................................................................................................................... 18

Part 3: Understanding the Racing Post Website...................................................................................................... 22

Chapter 6: Understanding the Race Card.......................................................................................................................................................... 23

Chapter 7: Understanding the Postdata table............................................................................................................................................... 25

Chapter 8: Studying a Horse's Racing History.......................................................................................................................................... 27

Part 4: How to Pick a Losing Horse.................................................................................................................................................. 29

Chapter 9: Laying Horses – Flat Racing............................................................................................................................................................ 30

Chapter 10: Step 1 – Primary Warning Signs – Flat Racing............................................................................................... 32

Chapter 11: Step 2 – Evaluating the Opposition.................................................................................................................................... 36

Chapter 12: Step 3 – Secondary Warning Signs – Flat Racing....................................................................................... 37

Chapter 13: Step 4 – Bringing It All Together.......................................................................................................................................... 42

Chapter 14: Example 1.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44

Chapter 15: Example 2.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50

Chapter 16: Laying Horses – National Hunt (Jump) Racing............................................................................................... 56

Chapter 17: Step 1 – Primary Warning Signs – Jump Racing........................................................................................... 57

Chapter 18: Step 2 – Evaluating the Opposition.................................................................................................................................... 62

Chapter 19: Step 3 – Secondary Warning Signs – Jump Racing................................................................................... 63

Chapter 20: Step 4 – Bringing It All Together.......................................................................................................................................... 66

Chapter 21: Example 3.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68

Part 5: Maximising Profits.................................................................................................................................................................................... 75

Chapter 22: Laying at the Right Price.................................................................................................................................................................... 76

Chapter 23: Using a Betting Bank............................................................................................................................................................................... 77

Chapter 24: Final Thoughts.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78

British - Fractional Odds

Below is an example of an on-line race card using British Odds;

So odds of 5/1 become 6 (5 ÷ 1 + 1 = 6)

and odds of 4/6 become 1.67 (4 ÷ 6 + 1 = 1.67)

Below is an example of an on-line race card using European Odds;

Below is an example of an on-line race card using American Odds;

UK EUR USA % UK EUR USA % UK EUR USA %

The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of gambling by almost

Below is a screen print of a recent race at Leicester;

Laying horses is not as complicated as you might think. It certainly isn't as

Lets run through a quick example so you understand this fully.

If My Sally wins we have to pay out £20

Click on 'Horse Racing – Todays Card' for a list of

Of course if you are laying the night before the

Simply scroll down and from the list of

Do not select the race meeting to place as

Ignore these as we are not backing the horses.

If the bet is unmatched you have several options:

Or you can cancel the bet.

UNDERSTANDING THE RACING

The website can be visited by clicking on the link → http://www.racingpost.co.uk

4. The horse's name and country of birth if not British.

5. The number of days since the horse's last run.

6. Additional information on the horse. D = distance winner, C = course winner,

10.The Racing Post's own rating of the horse.

12.Forecast of the likely Starting Price odds for each horse.

13.The Racing Post's analysis of the likely outcome.

1. The Racing Post's own rating for each horse.

3. Official rating – The official handicapper's rating of each individual horse's

4. The name of the horse.

5. The Racing Post's own analysis of the trainer's current form.

9. The Racing Posts own analysis of the effects of the draw.