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Programare in R
Programare in R
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Referenți științifci:
Prof.univ.dr. Elena Druică
Universitatea din București
Prof.univ.dr. Tudorel Andrei
Academia de Studii Economice
Prof.univ.dr. Călin Vâlsan
Bishop’s University, Canada
William’s School of Business
R AMi`Q/m+2`2 R
RXR *2 2bi2 _\ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R
RXk pMiD2H2 K2/BmHmB _ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X k
RXj *mK 7mM+ȧBQM2x _ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X j
k AMbiH`2 _ 8
kXR J2/BmH _ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8
kXk S`BK b2bBmM2 /2 Hm+`m ŗM _ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X e
j S+?2i2 RR
jXR hBTm`B /2 T+?2i2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X RR
jXk *_L hbF oB2rb X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Rj
9 AMi2`72ȧ2 ;`}+2 R8
9XR *2H2 KB mxmH2 BMi2`72ȧ2 ;`}+2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R8
9XRXR *QMbQH _ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R8
9XRXk _aim/BQ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R8
9Xk Hi2 BMi2`72ȧ2 ;`}+2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R3
9XkXR _*QKKM/2` X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R3
9XkXk _iiH2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R3
9XkXj _2pQHmiBQM _ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X RN
3 :`}+2 jN
3XR liBHBiȧB T2Mi`m ;`}+2, S`K2i`B ;`}+B X X X X X X X X X 9y
3Xk liBHBiȧB T2Mi`m ;`}+2, +mHQ`B X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9k
3Xj :`}+2 #b2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9j
3XjXR .B;`K2 tv X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 99
3XjXk .B;`K2 #` X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9e
3XjXj .B;`K2 #QtTHQi X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9e
*lS_ALa BBB
3XjX9 >BbiQ;`K2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9e
3XjX8 .B;`K2 +B`+mH`2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9d
3X9 :`}+2 HiiB+2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 93
3X8 :`}+2 ;;THQik X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8y
3X8XR :`}+2 [THQi X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8y
3X8Xk :`}+2 ;;THQi X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8k
N ai`m+im`B /2 /i2 88
NXR o2+iQ`B X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 88
NXk 6+iQ`B X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8d
NXj Ji`B+B X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8N
NX9 GBbi2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X eR
NX8 .i7`K2@m`B X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X e8
NXe PT2`ȧBB `BiK2iB+2 șB HQ;B+2 +m p2+iQ`B X X X X X X X X X X X ee
NXd :2M2``2 /i2HQ` X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X e3
Ry ai`m+im`B /2 T`Q;`K`2 dj
RyXR B7 @ 2Hb2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X dj
RyXk 7Q` X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X d8
RyXj r?BH2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X dd
RyX9 `2T2i X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X d3
RR 6mM+ȧBB dN
RRXR .2+H``2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X dN
RRXk oHQ`B `2im`Mi2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3R
RRXj `;mK2Mi2 HQ+H2 șB ;HQ#H2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3k
Rk aiiBbiB+ /2b+`BTiBp ŗM _ 3j
RkXR AMi`Q/m+2`2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3j
RkXk .2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ` +i2;Q`BH2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3d
RkXkXR h#2H2 /2 7`2+p2Mȧ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3d
RkXkXk _2T`2x2Mi`B ;`}+2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Ny
Bp *lS_ALa
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AMi`Q/m+2`2
RXR *2 2bi2 _\
2Q/d X
hQiQ/i- _ `2 bmbȧBM2`2 +QKmMBiȧBB +/2KB+2 șB șiBBMȧB}+2
BMi2`MȧBQMH2 - /` șB KmHiQ` +QKTMBB BMi2`MȧBQMH2X .BM +2 ŗM +2
KB KmHi2 +QKTMBB miBHBx2x _ + BMbi`mK2Mi /2 MHBx /i2X .BMi`2
+2bi2- K2MȧBQMK, :QQ;H2- 6+2#QQF- JQxBHH- hrBii2`- h?2 L2r uQ`F
hBK2b- h?2 1+QMQKBbi- L2ra+B2MiBbi- GHQv/Ƕb- "BM;- CQ?MbQMCQ?MbQM-
S}x2`- a?2HH- "MF Q7 K2`B+- 6Q`/X3
_ 2bi2 bmbȧBMmi șB /2 K2/BmH +/2KB+X J`BH2 mMBp2`bBiȧB /BM HmK2
bT`BDBM _- H 72H +mK bT`BDBM șB Hi2 BMBȧBiBp2 bm bQ7ir`2@m`B
QT2M@bQm`+2- T`2+mK bBbi2KmH /2 QT2``2 GBMmt bm bBbi2KmH /2
T`2T``2 /Q+mK2Mi2HQ` Gh1sX
Hi2 TmM+i2 7Q`i2 bmMi ~2tB#BHBii2 HBK#DmHmB șB `2T`Q/m+iB#BHBii2
MHBx2HQ`X liBHBxiQ`BB TQi ŗMi`2T`BM/2 MHBx2 THB+i2 T2 /B72`Bi2 b2im`B
/2 /i2 miBHBxM/ +2H2șB BMbi`mK2Mi2 șB +2HșB FMQr@?QrX
*m bB;m`Mȧ- +BiBiQ`BB pQ` /2b+QT2`B bBM;m`B șB Hi2 pMiD2X
AMbiH`2 _
kXR J2/BmH _
= +BiiBQMUV
= +BiiBQMU]MmK2nT+?2i]V
= k 8
(R) Ry
= RYbBMUR8V
(R) RXe8yk33
= 3 Ry fk
(R) 9y
kXk S`BK b2bBmM2 /2 Hm+`m ŗM _ d
= p`B#BHR 4 e
= p`B#BHk I@ 3
= Ry @= p`B#BHj
= t I@ k
= t
(R) k
= T`BMiUtV
(R) k
= Ut I@ kV
(R) k
1tBbi +i2p `2bi`B+ȧBB imM+B +M/ b2 H2;2 MmK2H2 mMmB Q#B2+i- `2bT2+iBp
MmK2H2 mM2B p`B#BH2,
3 AMbiH`2 _
= 2t2KTHmR I@ R
= 2t2KTHmHn I@ Ry
= 2t2KTHmnR I@ ky
= QXp`B#BH I@ jy
= R2t2KTHm I@ Ry
1``Q`, mM2tT2+i2/ BMTmi BM ]R2t]
= n2t2KTHm I@ Ry
1``Q`, mM2tT2+i2/ BMTmi BM ]n]
= 2t2KTHm5 I@ j
1``Q`, mM2tT2+i2/ ^5^ BM ]2t2KTHm5]
O _ 2bi2 mM HBK#D b2MbB#BH H KDmb+mH2
= o`bi I@ Ry
= p`bi
1``Q`, Q#D2+i ^p`bi^ MQi 7QmM/
= Ut I@ kV
(R) k
= I@ t
= t
(R) k
=
(R) k
= t I@ 8
=
(R) k
= t I@ Ry
= v I@ R8
= x I@ t
Y v
= x
(R) R8y
= HbUV
(R) ]t] ]v] ]x]
P Hi 7mM+ȧB2 miBH 2bi2 `KUVX +2bi b2 miBHB2x T2Mi`m Ȕi2`;2`2 mMmB
Q#B2+i /BM K2KQ`B2- + /2 2t2KTHm și2`;2`2 HmB x,
= `KUxV
= HbUV
(R) ]t] ]v]
= t I@ +UR-j-8-d-N-RRV
= v I@ +Ue-3-Ry-Rk-R9-ReV
= THQiUt-vV
S+?2i2
= BMbiHHXT+F;2bU]bTiBH]V
= HB#``vUbTiBHV
= `2[mB`2UbTiBHV
= HB#``vUV
= b2`+?UV
= /iUT+F;2 4 ]MHK2]V
= ?2HTUMHK2V
= /2i+?UT+F;2,MHK2V
jXk *_L hbF oB2rb Rj
= mT/i2XT+F;2bUV
KMBTmHi2 ,
o2`bBQM yXN3XRRyj BMbiHH2/ BM *,f_f_@jXkXy`+fHB#``v
o2`bBQM RXyXR pBH#H2 i ?iiT,ff+`MXiX`@T`QD2+iXQ`;
lT/i2 UvfLf+V\
= BMbiHHXT+F;2bU]+ip]V
= HB#``vU]+ip]V
= BMbiHHXpB2rbU]aQ+BHa+B2M+2b]V
= mT/i2XpB2rbU]aQ+BHa+B2M+2b]V
AMi2`72ȧ2 ;`}+2
9XRXR *QMbQH _
9XRXk _aim/BQ
_aim/BQ 2bi2 +QMbB/2`i +2H KB BMimBiBp șB KB mșQ` /2 miBHBxi /BMi`2 iQi2
BMi2`72ȧ2H2 ;`}+2X SmM2 H /BbTQxBȧB miBHBxiQ`mHmB ŗM +22șB 72`2bi`
ii +QMbQH- bTȧBmH /2 Hm+`m- b+`BTimH +i șB bTȧBmH /2 pBxmHBx`2 H
T+?2i2HQ` șB H /Q+mK2MiȧB2BX _aim/BQ 2bi2 bi`m+im`i ŗM Ti`m xQM2 /2
Hm+`m- T`2+mK ŗM 6B;m` 9XR,
kX *QMbQHc
9XkXR _*QKKM/2`
9XkXk _iiH2
= BMbiHHXT+F;2bU]`iiH2]V
= HB#``vU]`iiH2]V
= `iiH2UV
.i2H2 TQi } ŗM+`+i2 /BM }șB2`2 /2 iBT *ao- hsh- 1t+2H- _66-
P."*- _ .ib2i- _.i 6BH2- b2im`B /2 /i2 /BM HB#``BBH2 T+?2i2HQ`-
B` KQ/2H2H2 +QMbi`mBi2 șB 2pHmi2 pQ` } 2tTQ`ii2 + SJJG UT`2/B+iBp2
KQ/2HHBM; K`FmT HM;m;2V bm + b+Q`m`BX
9XkXj _2pQHmiBQM _
8 ?iiT,ff`2pQHmiBQMMHviB+bX+QKf
e ?iiT,ff`2pQHmiBQMMHviB+bX+QKf+/2Kv`@+2`iB}+iBQM
ky AMi2`72ȧ2 ;`}+2
Ç _@6Z, ?iiT,ff+`MX`@T`QD2+iXQ`;f/Q+f6Zf_@6ZX?iKH
Ç :TKBM/2`, ?iiT,ffrrrX;TKBM/2`XQ`;
:TKBM/2` 2bi2 mM T`QB2+i +2 Q72` BMbi`mK2Mi2 /2 pBxmHBx`2
/i2HQ` TM2H- miBHBxM/ K2/BmH _X
Ç ZmM/H, ?iiTb,ffrrrX[mM/HX+QK
ZmM/H 2bi2 Q #M+ /2 /i2- +2 +mT`BM/2 #x2 /2 /i2 /2 H
Q`;MBxȧBB MȧBQMH2 șB BMi2`MȧBQMH2- T`2+mK, "M+ JQM/BH-
1m`Qbii- 2i+X ++2b`2 mMmB b2i /2 /i2 T2`KBi2 /2b+`+`2 HmB
ŗM m`KiQ`2H2 7Q`Ki2, _- 1t+2H- *ao- CaPL- sJG- Svi?QM-
JiH#X S2Mi`m _ 2tBbi T+?2imH ZmM/H- +2 `2 /B72`Bi2 QTȧBmMB
/2 /2b+`+`2 șB KMBTmH`2 /i2HQ` /2 T2 +2bi r2#bBi2X
Ç _TTQ`i2`, ?iiT,ff`TTQ`i2`XM2i
_TTQ`i2` 2bi2 mM 2t+2H2Mi BMbi`mK2Mi QMHBM2- bm# 7Q`K /2
THi7Q`K șB +HQm/ +QKTmiBM;- /2 `TQ`i`2 șB MHBx /i2X
*TBiQHmH e
eXR LmK2`B+
= t I@ jXR9
= v I@ 8Xk9
= x I@ t Y v
= BbXMmK2`B+UxV
(R) h_l1
= ivT2Q7UxV
(R) ]/Qm#H2]
= Ut I@ 8fyV
(R) AM7
= +HbbUtV
(R) ]MmK2`B+]
= 2tTUtV
(R) AM7
= 2tTU@tV
(R) y
= t @ t
(R) LL
eXk AMi2;2`
.i2H2 /2 iBT ŗMi`2; UŗM 2M;H2x BMi2;2`V bmMi MmK2`2H2 Mim`H2- /2 7Q`K,
j- 8y- kRyX 1H2 TQi } miBHBxi2 T2Mi`m `2T`2x2Mi p`B#BH2 +MiBiiBp2-
+ /2 2t2KTHm MmK`mH /2 +QTBB /BMi`@Q ;QbTQ/`B2X 6mM+ȧB +HbbUV p
`2im`M iBTmH /2 /i2 /BM Q#B2+iX
= M`n+QTBB I@ bXBMi2;2`U8V
= BbXBMi2;2`UM`n+QTBBV
(R) h_l1
= +HbbUM`n+QTBBV
(R) ]BMi2;2`]
eXj *QKTH2t kd
= t I@ bXBMi2;2`UNV
= v I@ kXy
= x I@ tfv
= x
(R) 9X8
= +HbbUxV
(R) ]MmK2`B+]
eXj *QKTH2t
= i2biR I@ bX+QKTH2tU@k9YeBV
= b[`iUi2biRV
(R) yXeyddR9Y9XNje8kNB
= Ui2bik I@ +QKTH2tUj- `2H 4 8- BK;BM`v 4 kVV
(R) 8YkB 8YkB 8YkB
= ivT2Q7Ui2bikV
(R) ]+QKTH2t]
= b[`iUƉ9V
(R) LL
q`MBM; K2bb;2,
AM b[`iU@9V , LLb T`Q/m+2/
= b[`iUƉ9YyBV
(R) yYkB
= b[`iUbX+QKTH2tUƉ9VV
(R) yYkB
k3 hBTm`B /2 /i2 șB QT2`ȧBB /2 #x
eX9 GQ;B+
lM Q#B2+i /2 iBT HQ;B+ TQi2 p2 pHQ`BH2 h_l1 bm 6Ga1 șB 2bi2 miBHBxi
T2Mi`m BM/B+ /+ Q +QM/BȧB2 2bi2 /2p`i bm 7HbX bi72H /2 Q#B2+i2
TQi `2xmHi /BM 2tT`2bBB HQ;B+2X
= t I@ k
= Uv I@ t = 9V
(R) 6Ga1
= BbXMmK2`B+URyXj8V
(R) h_l1
= BbXBMi2;2`URyXj8V
(R) 6Ga1
= BbX+QKTH2tURY8BV
(R) h_l1
= BbXHQ;B+HUhV
(R) h_l1
= K I@ h_l1
= M I@ 6Ga1
= K M O K ȐA M
(R) 6Ga1
= K % M O K al M
(R) h_l1
= 5K O M2;`2 HmB K
(R) 6Ga1
eX8 *`+i2`
= H2ii2`b
(R) ]] ]#] ]+] ]/] ]2] ]7] ];] ]?] ]B] ]D] ]F] ]H] ]K] ]M]
(R8) ]Q] ]T] ][] ]`] ]b] ]i] ]m] ]p] ]r] ]t] ]v] ]x]
= G1hh1_a
(R) ]] ]"] ]*] ].] ]1] ]6] ]:] ]>] ]A] ]C] ]E] ]G] ]J] ]L]
(R8) ]P] ]S] ]Z] ]_] ]a] ]h] ]l] ]o] ]q] ]s] ]u] ]w]
.B72`2Mȧ2H2 /BMi`2 MmKBi2 iBTm`B /2 /i2 bmMi KBMQ`2c T`BM m`K`2 2bi2
TQbB#BH +QMp2`bB mMmB Q#B2+i /BMi`@mM iBT ŗM HimH T`BM b+?BK#`2 mMQ`
i`B#mi2 H2 bH2X P b2K2M2 +QMp2`bB2 p } 272+imi +m Q 7mM+ȧB2 /2
iBTmH bXiBT/i2UVX
PT2`iQ`B
`BiK2iB+B .2 +QKT`ȧB2 GQ;B+B
Y /mM`2 I KB KB+ 5 t Ll HQ;B+
@ b+/2`2 = KB K`2 t v ȘA HQ;B+
ŗMKmHȧB`2 I4 KB KB+ bm 2;H t v B/X
f ŗKT`ȧB`2 =4 KB K`2 bm 2;H t | v al HQ;B+
Ó bm `B/B+`2 H Tmi2`2 44 2;H t || v B/X
WW KQ/mH 54 /B72`Bi /2 tQ`Ut- vV al 2t+HmbBp
WfW ŗKT`ȧB`2 +m `2bi
eXd PT2`ȧBB /2 #x jR
= t I@ R,8
= v I@ R,8
= t 44 v
(R) h_l1 h_l1 h_l1 h_l1 h_l1
= t I@ +UR,RyV
= t(Ut I 8V % Ut = 3V)
(R) R k j 9 N Ry
= Ut I@ +UR,RyVV
(R) R k j 9 8 e d 3 N Ry
= t I 8
(R) h_l1 h_l1 h_l1 h_l1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1
= t = 3
(R) 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 h_l1 h_l1
= t I 8 % t = 3
(R) h_l1 h_l1 h_l1 h_l1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 6Ga1 h_l1 h_l1
= t(+Uh_l1-h_l1-h_l1-h_l1-6Ga1-6Ga1-6Ga1-6Ga1-h_l1-h_l1V)
(R) R k j 9 N Ry
*TBiQHmH d
= b2ir/U]*,f.Q+mK2Mibf?QK2]V
bm,
= b2ir/U]*,$$.Q+mK2Mib$$?QK2]V
/2b+?Bb2c
.+ Mm 2bi2 MB+BmM }șB2` /2b+?Bb- +2bi QTȧBmM2 p } BM+iBpX
kX hQ 6BH2b SM2 GQ+iBQM Ĝ p b2i /B`2+iQ`mH /2 Hm+`m ŗM b2+ȧBmM2
mM/2 2bi2 BMbiHi _aim/BQc
jX *?QQb2 .B`2+iQ`v Ĝ b2 p /2b+?B/2 Q 72`2bi` +m K2MBm /2 H2;2`2
/B`2+iQ`mHmB /2 Hm+`mX
/i2nm`H I@ `2/Xi#H2U]?iiT,ffHB#XbiiX+KmX2/mfD+;bfim]-
bFBT 4 9- ?2/2` 4 h_l1V
lM Hi +x T`iB+mH` 2bi2 +BiB`2 /i2HQ` /BMi`@mM }șB2` /2 iBT +bp- T2Mi`m
+`2 b2 miBHBx2x 7mM+ȧB `2/X+bpUVX +2bi 7mM+ȧB2 2bi2 Q p`BMi
7mM+ȧB2B T`2x2Mii2 Mi2`BQ` U`2/Xi#H2UVV- pM/ +`+i2`BbiB+B +QKmM2X
a2 `2+QKM/ BKTQ`imH }șB2`2HQ` /2 iBT +bp + Hi2`MiBp H H +2HQ` 1t+2HX
.2șB _ Q72` șB T+?2i2 T2Mi`m BKTQ`imH }șB2`2HQ` 1t+2H- 7mM+ȧBQMHBii2
HQ` /2TBM/2 /2 p2`bBmM2 /2 Cp BMbiHi- B` /BM +2bi KQiBp BMbiH`2
HQ` TQi2 } mM2Q`B +QKTHB+iX
dXk *BiB`2 /i2HQ` j8
= /i2naSaa I@ `2/nbTbbU]/iXbp]V
= /i2naa I@ `2/XtTQ`iU]/iXtTi]V
S2Mi`m bHp`2 mMmB Q#B2+i /2 Q`B+2 iBT- b2 TQi2 miBHBx +QKM/ bp2Ut-
v- x- 7BH24 ]tvxX_.i]VX .i2H2 U+`2 bmMi MmKBi2 ŗM +2bi 7x
rQ`FbT+2 ŗM D`;QMmH HBK#DmHmB _V TQi } ŗM+`+i2 KB i`xBm ŗM K2KQ`B2
+m 7mM+ȧB HQ/U]tvxX_.i]VX
6mM+ȧB p b+`B2 mM }șB2` i2ti șB mM T`Q;`K aSaa +`2 p +BiB +2bi }șB2`
i2tiX
6mM+ȧB p b+`B2 mM }șB2` i2ti șB mM T`Q;`K aa +`2 p +BiB +2bi }șB2`
i2tiX
:`}+2
Ç ;`}+2 BMi2;`i2c
Ç ~2tB#BHBii2 șB T2`bQMHBx`2c
Ç `2T`Q/m+iB#BHBii2c
Ç +HBii2 2t+2H2Mic
RX :`}+2 HQr@H2p2H
Ç ;`}+2 #b2
Ç ;`}+2 ;`B/
kX :`}+2 ?B;?@H2p2H
9y :`}+2
Ç ;`}+2 HiiB+2
Ç ;`}+2 ;;THQik
:`}+2H2 HQr@H2p2H bmMi +2H2 ŗM +`2 }2+`2 /2iHBm U}2+`2 TBt2H- }2+`2
+`+i2`V H ;`}+mHmB TQi2 } KQ/B}+i bm +mbiQKBxiX :`}+2H2
?B;?@H2p2H bmMi ;`}+2 T`27#`B+i2- +`2 m mM MmKBi bT2+i T`2/2}MBiX
:`}+2H2 ;`B/ Mm pQ` 7+2 Q#B2+imH bim/BmHmB ŗM +2bi +`i2X *2H2 Ti`m
bm#+i2;Q`BB U#b2- ;`B/- HiiB+2 șB ;;THQiV `2T`2xBMi K2/BB ;`}+2 UŗM
2M;H2x ;`T?B+b 2MpB`QMK2MibV H2 K2/BmHmB _X ŖMBMi2 /2 ŗM+2T2
bim/B2`2 +2biQ`- b2 pQ` MHBx +i2p 7mM+ȧBQMHBiȧB bT2+B}+2
K2/BmHmB _ T2Mi`m `2T`2x2Mi`BH2 ;`}+2X
= T`U#; 4 ]v2HHQr]V
Ç 7QMi, Q pHQ`2 /2 iBT ŗMi`2; +`2 b2i2x biBHmH i2timHmB UR, MQ`KH-
k, BiHB+- j, #QH/- 9, #QH/ BiHB+Vc 2tBbi șB p`BMi2H2, 7QMiXtBb-
7QMiXH#- 7QMiXKBM- 7QMiXbm#c
Ç i+H, B/2MiB+ +m i+F- ŗMb + T`i2 ŗMHȧBKBB mM2B HBMBB /2 i2ti UŗM
KQ/ BKTHB+Bi i+H4@yX8Vc
= TH2ii2UV
(R) ]#H+F] ]`2/] ];`22Mj] ]#Hm2]
(8) ]+vM] ]K;2Mi] ]v2HHQr] ];`v]
= TH2ii2U]/27mHi]V
= ;`vUb2[UyXR- R- #v 4 yXjVV
(R) ]ORRR] ]Oeeeeee] ]O"k"k"k] ]O666666]
Ç ?BbiUV @ ?BbiQ;`Kc
3XjXR .B;`K2 tv
= b2iXb22/URkj9V
= v I@ Ki`BtU`mMB7UjyV- M+QH 4 j- /BKMK2b 4 HBbiUH2ii2`b(R,Ry)-
G1hh1_a(R,j)VV
= THQiUv(-R)- v(-k)V
= TB`bUvV
6B;m` 3XR
X .B;`K tv #X Ji`B+2 b+ii2`THQi
= #QtTHQiUvV
3XjX9 >BbiQ;`K2
6B;m` 3Xj
X .B;`K #` p2`iB+H #X .B;`K #QtTHQi
= p`bi2 I@ +Uk8-kR-j8-9j-8R-ed-8y-98-j9-jd-k3-R8-Re-ky-89-eR-
jk-98-j8-jN-kk-k8-R9-kd-8e-8R-jN-9y-kk-RdV
6B;m` 3X9
X >BbiQ;`K #X .B;`K +B`+mH`
= HB#``vUHiiB+2V
= i`2HHBbX/2pB+2U+QHQ` 4 6Ga1V
= tvTHQiUR,RyR,Ry%`2TUG1hh1_a(R,9)- 2+?4kVV
Ç t @ +QQ`/QMi2H2 #b+Bb2Bc
Ç v @ +QQ`/QMi2H2 Q`/QMi2Bc
Ç /i @ /i7`K2@mH /BM +`2 b2 Bm /i2H2 /2 BMi``2c
Ç tHBK- vHBK @ HBKBi2H2 #b+Bb2B șB Q`/QMi2Bc
Ç Hi2 `;mK2Mi2 +2 bmMi pH#BH2 șB T2Mi`m 7mM+ȧB THQiX
= t I@ bKTH2UR,8y- kyV
= v I@ bKTH2U8R,Ryy- kyV
6B;m` 3Xd
X .B;`K T`BM TmM+i2 +m HBMB2 /2
`2;`2bB2 @ [THQi #X >BbiQ;`K @ [THQi
= bmKK`vUTV
/i, +`i- +mi- +QHQ`- +H`Biv- /2Ti?- i#H2- T`B+2- t- v- x (RyyytRy)
KTTBM;, t 4 +`i- v 4 T`B+2
7+2iBM;, 7+2inMmHHUV
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
;2QKnHBM2,
biinB/2MiBiv,
TQbBiBQMnB/2MiBiv, UrB/i? 4 LlGG- ?2B;?i 4 LlGGV
= T Y ;2QKn?BbiQ;`KUV
= T Y ;2QKn?BbiQ;`KU#BMrB/i? 4 RyyyV
= T Y biin#BMU;2QK 4 ]`2]V Y i?2K2n#rUV
6B;m` 3XN
X .B;`K #QtTHQi @ ;;THQi #X .B;`K bmT`7ȧ @ ;;THQi
*TBiQHmH N
ai`m+im`B /2 /i2
NXR o2+iQ`B
= p2+iQ`MmK2`B+ I@ +Uk- 9- j- 8- 3V
= +HbbUp2+iQ`MmK2`B+V
(R) ]MmK2`B+]
= Up2+iQ`BMi2;2` I@ +UR,8VV
(R) R k j 9 8
= +HbbUp2+iQ`BMi2;2`V
(R) ]BMi2;2`]
= t I@ +Uh_l1- 6Ga1V
= +HbbUtV
(R) ]HQ;B+H]
8e ai`m+im`B /2 /i2
= t I@ +U]]-]#]-]+]V
= +HbbUtV
(R) ]+?`+i2`]
= t I@ +URYjB- 8YeBV
= +HbbUtV
(R) ]+QKTH2t]
S`BM 7mM+ȧB p2+iQ`UV b2 TQi2 HQ+ bTȧBmH M2+2b` 7` i`B#mB pHQ`B
p`B#BH2B `2bT2+iBp2X
= Ut I@ p2+iQ`U]MmK2`B+]- H2M;i?48VV
(R) y y y y y
= Uv I@ +URX8- ]]VV
(R) ]RX8] ]]
= +HbbUvV
(R) ]+?`+i2`]
= Uv I@ +U]]- h_l1VV
(R) ]] ]h_l1]
= +HbbUvV
(R) ]+?`+i2`]
NXk 6+iQ`B
P p`B#BH /2 iBT 7+iQ` 2bi2 Q +QH2+ȧB2 /2 pHQ`B +`2 TQi T`ȧBM2 mM2B
KmHȧBKB /i2 /2 pHQ`B TQbB#BH2X lM 7+iQ` 2bi2 bBKBH` +m mM p2+iQ`- +m
2t+2TȧB 7TimHmB + pHQ`BH2 /BMi`@mM 7+iQ` bmMi HBKBii2 H Q KmHȧBK2
/i /2 pHQ`B TQbB#BH2X
lM 7+iQ` TQi2 } 7QHQbBi T2Mi`m `2T`2x2Mi Q p`B#BH +i2;Q`BH
/BMi`@mM b2i /2 /i2X 6+iQ`BB bmMi miBHBxȧB- /2 Q#B+2B- ŗM KQ/2H`2
biiBbiB+ /2Q`2+2 p`B#BH2H2 +i2;Q`BH2 bmMi i`ii2 /B72`Bi /2 +i`2
KQ/2H2H2 biiBbiB+2 ŗM +QKT`ȧB2 +m p`B#BH2H2 +QMiBMm2X ŖM +xmH ŗM +`2
b2 +mMQși2 + p`B#BH /BM b2`B /2 /i2 2bi2 /2 iBT +i2;Q`BH imM+B
2bi2 `2+QKM/i + /i2H2 b b2 biQ+?2x2 ŗM p`B#BH2 /2 iBT 7+iQ` T2Mi`m
} i`ii2 +Q`2+i /2 +i`2 7mM+ȧBBH2 /2 KQ/2H`2X
1t2KTHmH R, T2Mi`m KmHȧBK2 MmK2`2HQ` &k-j-R-j-k-9-k-R-R-j-k-k-j-9' b2
TQi B/2MiB}+ m`KiQ`2H2 +i2;Q`BB, R-k-j-9X
= p2+iQ`MmK2`2 I@ +Uk-j-R-j-k-9-k-R-R-j-k-k-j-9V
= U7p2+iQ`MmK2`2 I@ bX7+iQ`Up2+iQ`MmK2`2VV
(R) k j R j k 9 k R R j k k j 9
G2p2Hb, R k j 9
= p2+iQ`b2t I@ +U]6]-]J]-]J]-]6]-]J]-]6]-]6]-]J]-]6]-]J]V
= +HbbUp2+iQ`b2tV
(R) ]+?`+i2`]
= U7p2+iQ`b2t I@ bX7+iQ`Up2+iQ`b2tVV
(R) 6 J J 6 J 6 6 J 6 J
G2p2Hb, 6 J
= H2p2HbU7p2+iQ`b2tV I@ +U^62KBMBM^-^Jb+mHBM^V
= 7p2+iQ`b2t
(R) 62KBMBM Jb+mHBM Jb+mHBM 62KBMBM Jb+mHBM 62KBMBM
62KBMBM Jb+mHBM 62KBMBM Jb+mHBM
G2p2Hb, 62KBMBM Jb+mHBM
= i#H2U7HmMBV
7HmMB
T` m; .2+ 62# AM AmH AmM JB J` LQB P+i a2T
k k k R k R k k R R R R
a2 p2`B}+ /+ T`BKmH 2H2K2Mi /BM p2+iQ`mH 7HmMB 2bi2 KB KB+ /2+i H
/QBH2 2H2K2Mi- BMBȧBH T`BKmH 2H2K2Mi }BM/ ǶT`Ƕ- B` H /QBH2 ǶJ`Ƕ,
= 7HmMB(R) I 7HmMB(k)
(R) 6Ga1
NXj Ji`B+B 8N
= i#H2U7HmMBV
7HmMB
AM 62# J` T` JB AmM AmH m; a2T P+i LQB .2+
k R R k k k R k R R R k
= 7p2MBim`B I@ +miUp2MBim`B-
#`2Fb 4 +URkyy- Rjd8- R88y- RNk8- k8yyV-
BM+Hm/2XHQr2bi 4 h_l1- /B;XH# 4 9V
= +HbbU7p2MBim`BV
(R) ]7+iQ`]
= i#H2U7p2MBim`BV
7p2MBim`B
(Rkyy-Rjd8) URjd8-R88y) UR88y-RNk8) URNk8-k8yy)
j j j j
NXj Ji`B+B
= K(- R)
(R) R k
= K(R- )
(R) R j 8 d N
= K(k- 9)
(R) 3
- - k
= pj/BK(- - R)
(-R) (-k) (-j)
(R-) R j 8
(k-) k 9 e
= pj/BK(k- R- k)
(R) 3
NX9 GBbi2
((k))
(R) ]v]
((j))
(R) h_l1
((9))
(R) jYRyB
= +HbbUHBbiV
(R) ]HBbi]
= HBbi((R))(j)
(R) 8y
= HBbi((k))
(R) ]v]
= +HbbUHBbi(k)V
(R) ]HBbi]
= +HbbUHBbi((k))V
(R) ]+?`+i2`]
= HBbi+QKTH2t
0
(R) R8 Re Rd R3 RN ky kR kk kj k9 k8 ke kd k3 kN jy
0#
(R) ]v]
((j))
(R) h_l1 6Ga1 h_l1 6Ga1
((9))
(R) jYRyB
= H2M;i?UHBbi+QKTH2tV
(R) 9
= +HbbUHBbi+QKTH2t((R))V
(R) ]BMi2;2`]
.` +2HșB Hm+`m b2 TQi2 7+2 șB T`BM /`2b`2 /B`2+i MmK2HmB T`BKmHmB
2H2K2Mi- - bi72H,
e9 ai`m+im`B /2 /i2
= +HbbUHBbi+QKTH2t0V
(R) ]BMi2;2`]
= H2M;i?UHBbi+QKTH2t((R))V
(R) Re
= H2M;i?UHBbi+QKTH2t0V
(R) Re
= +HbbUHBbi+QKTH2t((k))V
(R) ]+?`+i2`]
= +HbbUHBbi+QKTH2t((j))V
(R) ]HQ;B+H]
= +HbbUHBbi+QKTH2t((9))V
(R) ]+QKTH2t]
= HBbi+QKTH2t((R))((j))
(R) Rd
am,
= HBbi+QKTH2t0(j)
(R) Rd
= HBbi+QKTH2t((+UR-jV))
(R) Rd
= HBbi+QKTH2t(R-j)
1``Q` BM HBbi+QKTH2t(R- j) , BM+Q``2+i MmK#2` Q7 /BK2MbBQMb
= MK2bUHBbi+QKTH2tV
(R) ]] ]#] ]] ]]
NX8 .i7`K2@m`B
lM /i7`K2 2bi2 Q +QH2+ȧB2 /2 Q#b2`pȧBB 7Q`Ki /BM mMmH bm KB KmHȧB
p2+iQ`B șBfbm 7+iQ`B /2 +22șB HmM;BK2- /2 Q`B+`2 iBTX a2 pQ` Hm +
2t2KTHm +BM+B p2+iQ`B +`2 +QMȧBM BM7Q`KȧBB T`BpBM/ +`+i2`BbiB+BH2 mMQ`
miQim`BbK2X
= K`+ I@ +U]oQHbFr;2M]-]_2MmHi]-]6Bi]V
= KQiQ` I@ +U].B2b2H]-]"2MxBM]-]"2MxBM]V
= +T+Bii2 I@ +UReyy- RNyy- RkyyV
= Tmi2`2 I@ +Ud8- e8- 88V
= i`MbKBbB2 I@ +U]miQKi]-]JMmH]-]JMmH]V
= UmiQ I@ /iX7`K2UK`+- KQiQ`- +T+Bii2- Tmi2`2-
i`MbKBbB2VV
K`+ KQiQ` +T+Bii2 Tmi2`2 i`MbKBbB2
R oQHbFr;2M .B2b2H Reyy d8 miQKi
k _2MmHi "2MxBM RNyy e8 JMmH
j 6Bi "2MxBM Rkyy 88 JMmH
= mMHBbiUHTTHvUmiQ- +HbbVV
K`+ KQiQ` +T+Bii2 Tmi2`2 i`MbKBbB2
]7+iQ`] ]7+iQ`] ]MmK2`B+] ]MmK2`B+] ]7+iQ`]
.i7`K2@m`BH2 bmMi 7QHQbBi2 KB H2b T2Mi`m /i2H2 BKTQ`ii2 /BM /B72`Bi2
bm`b2 2ti2`M2X
ee ai`m+im`B /2 /i2
lMmH /BMi`2 +2H2 KB K`B pMiD2 H2 miBHBx`BB K2/BmHmB _ ŗM MHBx
biiBbiB+ 2bi2 7TimH + 7Qbi +`2i /2 biiBbiB+B2MB T2Mi`m biiBbiB+B2MBX
.2KQMbi`ȧB +2 KB bBKTH b2 TQi2 7+2 T`BM mșm`BMȧ +m +`2 b2
`2HBx2x QT2`ȧBBH2 `BiK2iB+2 șB +2H2 HQ;B+2 bmT` p2+iQ`BHQ`X
/mM`2 mM2B pHQ`B H iQi2 2H2K2Mi2H2 mMmB p2+iQ` b2 `2HBx2x T`BM
bBKTH QT2`ȧB2 `BiK2iB+- 7` miBHBx bi`m+im`B `2T2iBiBp2 /2 T`+m`;2`2
2H2K2Mi2HQ` p2+iQ`mHmBX lM p2+iQ` +`2 b +QMȧBM MmK2`2H2 ŗMi`2;B /2
H R H Ry b2 +`2x bi72H,
= Up I@ R,RyV
(R) R k j 9 8 e d 3 N Ry
= Up I@ p Y RV
(R) k j 9 8 e d 3 N Ry RR
/mM`2 /QB p2+iQ`B 2bi2 /2 b2K2M2 7Q`i2 bBKTH- B` T2Mi`m +2bi
b2 +`2x p2+iQ`BB, pR șB pk,
= pR I@ +UR- k- j- 9- 8V
= pk I@ +URy- ky- jy- 9y- 8yV
= pR Y pk
(R) RR kk jj 99 88
= pR pk
(R) Ry 9y Ny Rey k8y
am#b2im`B
a2H2+ȧB mMQ` 2H2K2Mi2 /BMi`@mM p2+iQ` b2 `2HBx2x T`BMi`@mM p2+iQ` /2
iBT HQ;B+ i`MbKBb + T`K2i`m p2+iQ`mHmB ŗM bBM2X .2 2t2KTHm, b2 pQ`
b2H2+i /BM p2+iQ`mH +`2 +QMȧBM2 MmK2`2H2 ŗMi`2;B /2 H R H R8 +2H2 pHQ`B
/BpBxB#BH2 +m jX S`BKmH Tb 2bi2 +`2`2 p2+iQ`mHmB,
= Up I@ R,R8V
(R) R k j 9 8 e d 3 N Ry RR Rk Rj R9 R8
= p WW j
(R) R k y R k y R k y R k y R k y
= p WW j 44 y
(R) 6Ga1 6Ga1 h_l1 6Ga1 6Ga1 h_l1 6Ga1 6Ga1
h_l1 6Ga1 6Ga1 h_l1 6Ga1 6Ga1 h_l1
= p(p WW j 44 y)
(R) j e N Rk R8
e3 ai`m+im`B /2 /i2
= R,Ry
(R) R k j 9 8 e d 3 N Ry
= b2[URyV
(R) R k j 9 8 e d 3 N Ry
= b2[UH2M;i?XQmi 4 RyV
(R) R k j 9 8 e d 3 N Ry
= b2[Uy- R- H2M;i?XQmi 4 NV
(R) yXyyy yXRk8 yXk8y yXjd8 yX8yy yXek8 yXd8y yX3d8 RXyyy
= b2[Uy- Ry- #v 4 kV
(R) y k 9 e 3 Ry
P Hi 7mM+ȧB2 T`BM +`2 b2 TQi ;2M2` miQKi MmKBi2 /i2- /` /mT
`2;mH KmHiBTHB+`BB- 2bi2, `2TUV- +m `;mK2Mi2H2, t- iBK2b șB H2M;i?XQmiX
JmHiBTHB+`2 MmK`mHmB R /2 8 Q`B,
NXd :2M2``2 /i2HQ` eN
= `2TUR- 8V
(R) R R R R R
= `2TUR,j- kV
(R) R k j R k j
= `2TUR,j- 2+? 4 kV
(R) R R k k j j
Ç M, MmK`mH /2 2H2K2Mi2c
= b2iXb22/URkjV
= `mMB7U8- KBM 4 R- Kt 4 RyV
(R) jX833RN3 3XyN9d9e 9Xe3ydNk 3XN9dR8d NX9e9kye
Ç K2M, K2/Bc
= b2iXb22/URkjV
= `MQ`KU8- K2M 4 y- b/ 4 RV
(R) @yX8ey9d8e8 @yXkjyRdd9N RX883dy3jR yXydy8y3jN yXRkNk3dd9
H2;2`2 H2iQ`2 mMQ` MmK2`2 /BMi`@Q b2`B2 +`2 2tBbi /2D ŗM K2KQ`B2-
;2M2`i bm ŗM+`+i /BMi`@Q #x /2 /i2 b2 `2HBx2x T`BM 7mM+ȧB
bKTH2UV- +m m`KiQ`2H2 `;mK2Mi2,
Ç `2TH+2, +`2 TQi2 Hm pHQ`BH2, h_l1 bm 6Ga1- bi#BHBM/ /+
MmK2`2H2 2ti`b2 pQ` } BMi`Q/mb2 /BM MQm ŗM m`M- `2bT2+iBp bmMi
2HBKBMi2 /BM m`MX
= t I@ R,Ry
= bKTH2UtV
(R) N d e Ry 9 3 j k R 8
= b2iXb22/URkj9V
= bKTH2UR,9N- eV
(R) e jy kN 9d jN 9e
= b2iXb22/URkj9V
= bKTH2URy- 8- `2TH+2 4 h_l1V
(R) k d d d N
ai`m+im`B /2 T`Q;`K`2
RyXR B7 @ 2Hb2
B7 U+QM/BiB2RV &
O 2t2+mi MBȑi2 2tT`2bBB
' 2Hb2 B7 U+QM/BiB2kV &
O 2t2+mi Hi2 2tT`2bBB
' 2Hb2 &
O 2t2+mi Hi2 2tT`2bBB
'
B7 U+QM/BiB2V 2tT`2bB2
1t2KTHm,
d9 ai`m+im`B /2 T`Q;`K`2
= p2+i I@ Ry,ky
= B7 Up2+i(k) 44 RRV T`BMi U]2H2K2MimH k `2 pHQ`2 RR]V
(R) ]2H2K2MimH k `2 pHQ`2 RR]
B7 U+QM/BiB2V &
O 2t2+mi MBȑi2 2tT`2bBB
'
1t2KTHm,
= p2+i I@ Ry,ky
= B7 Up2+i(k) 44 RRV &
p2+i(k) I@ jj
T`BMi U]2H2K2MimH k `2 Q Hi} pHQ`25]V
'
(R) ]2H2K2MimH k `2 `2 Q Hi} pHQ`25]
1t2KTHm,
= p2+i I@ Ry,ky
= B7 Up2+i(j) 44 RRV &
T`BMiU]2H2K2MimH j `2 pHQ`2 RR]V
' 2Hb2 &
T`BMi U]2H2K2MimH j Mm `2 pHQ`2 RR]V
'
(R) ]2H2K2MimH j Mm `2 pHQ`2 RR]
B7 U+QM/BiB2V &
O 2t2+mi MBȑi2 2tT`2bBB
' 2Hb2 &
O 2t2+mi Hi2 2tT`2bBB
'
1t2KTHm,
RyXk 7Q` d8
= p2+i I@ Ry,ky
= B7 Up2+i(k) 44 RRV &
T`BMiU]2H2K2MimH k `2 pHQ`2 RR]V
p2+i(k) I@ jj
' 2Hb2 &
T`BMiU]2H2K2MimH k Mm `2 pHQ`2 RR]V
p2+i(k) I@ RR
'
= Up2+i I@ Ry,kyV
(R) Ry RR Rk Rj R9 R8 Re Rd R3 RN ky
= B72Hb2U/i2H2K2H2 I R8- R- yV
(R) R R R R R y y y y y y
RyXk 7Q`
= 7Q`UB BM R,kV&
K2bD I@ Tbi2U]aHmi5]- BV
T`BMiUK2bDV
'
(R) ]aHmi5 R]
(R) ]aHmi5 k]
= t I@ +U]]- ]#]V
.+ 2bi2 7QHQbBi ŗKT`2mM +m B7- b2 TQi2 b`B T2bi2 mM MmKBi MmK`
/2 Bi2`ȧBB,
RyXj r?BH2
= B I@ y
= r?BH2 UB I jV &
B I@ B Y R
T`BMiUBV
'
(R) R
(R) k
(R) j
= BM/2t I@ y
= r?BH2UBM/2t I jV&
T`BMiUBM/2tV
BM/2t I@ BM/2t Y R
'
(R) y
(R) R
(R) k
= BM/2t I@ y
= r?BH2UBM/2t I 8V&
T`BMiUBM/2tV
'
(R) y
(R) y
(R) y
XXX
RyX9 `2T2i
`2T2i &
O b2i /2 BMbi`m+iBmMB
#`2F
'
= BM/2t I@ y
= `2T2i &
BM/2t I@ BM/2t Y R
T`BMiUBM/2tV
B7UBM/2t =4 jV #`2FUV
'
(R) R
(R) k
(R) j
= BM/2t I@ y
= `2T2i &
T`BMiUBM/2tV
B7 UBM/2t = 8V #`2F
'
*TBiQHmH RR
6mM+ȧBB
RRXR .2+H``2
= 6mM+iB2amKU]LmK2]- ]S`2MmK2]V
(R) ] 4 LmK2 /2 iBT, +?`+i2`]
(R) ]# 4 S`2MmK2 /2 iBT, +?`+i2`]
1``Q` BM Y # , MQM@MmK2`B+ `;mK2Mi iQ #BM`v QT2`iQ`
RRXk oHQ`B `2im`Mi2 3R
= Up`B#BH I@ 6mM+iB2amKUR- kV kV
(R) e
JB KmHi /2+i ii- b2 TQi2 T2H 7mM+ȧB T`BM 2 ŗMbșB- bi72H,
= 6mM+iB2amKU6mM+iB2amKUR- kV- jV
(R) e
/2b2- MmK2H2 `;mK2Mi2HQ` bmMi miBH2- KB H2b ŗM 7mM+ȧBBH2 +m KB KmHi2
`;mK2Mi2- B` pHQ`BH2 BKTHB+Bi2 bmMi mM2Q`B M2+2b`2 T2Mi`m + 7mM+ȧB b
`mH2x2 7` 2`Q`BX AMBȧBHBx`2 `;mK2Mi2HQ` 2bi2 `2+QKM/i T2Mi`m +2H2
+`2 bmMi miBHBxi2 Q#HB;iQ`Bm ŗM BMi2`BQ`mH 7mM+ȧB2BX
`;mK2MimH XXX b2 miBHBx2x imM+B +M/ MmK`mH `;mK2Mi2HQ` Mm 2bi2
+mMQb+miX aT`2 2t2KTHm b2 TQi2 `2HBx Q 7mM+ȧB2 /2 ŗMbmK`2 KB
KmHiQ` MmK2`2X
aiiBbiB+ /2b+`BTiBp ŗM _
RkXR AMi`Q/m+2`2
aiiBbiB+ 2bi2 Q șiBBMȧ +`2 BKTHB+ /Bp2`b2 iBTm`B /2 /i2- +`2 bmMi
miBHBxi2 T2Mi`m H2 +HbB}+ șB Q`;MBx- B` TQB T2Mi`m H2 BMi2`T`2i șB
MHBxX
AM/B72`2Mi /2 /QK2MBmH H +`2 2bi2 THB+i- biiBbiB+ U+2H TmȧBM H MBp2H
/2b+`BTiBpV TQi2 } miBHBxi ŗM KQ/ bBKBH`X 6B2 + 2bi2 pQ`# /2 Q#B2+i2
}xB+2- bm 2MiBiȧB 2+QMQKB+2- Q`B mMBiȧB bQ+BH2- +2bi2 TQi } ŗKT`ȧBi2
T2 +i2;Q`BB- Kbm`i2 ŗM KQ/ MmK2`B+ B` /2b+`B2`2 +2biQ` b2 7+2 H
72HX
1tBbi ș/` MBși2 2MiBiȧB /2 #x H2 biiBbiB+BB- miBHBxi2 ŗM +/`mH
QT2`ȧBmMBB /2b+`BTiBp2 p`B#BH2HQ`X +2bi2 bmMi MBp2Hm`BH2 /2
Kbm``2,
Ç MQKBMH
Ç Q`/BMH
Ç BMi2`pH
Ç `TQ`i
= b2iXb22/URkj98V
= Up`R I@ bKTH2UR,9- ky- `2TH+2 4 h_l1VV
(R) j 9 9 9 k R k j j 9 R R j R k k k k R 9
S`BK +QKM/ /BM +2bi 2t2KTHm +`2x Q#B2+imH p`R- +`2 +QMȧBM2 ky
/2 MmK2`2 +m pHQ`B ŗMi`2 R șB 9 U/2 `2K`+i BM+Hm/2`2 ŗMi`2;BB +QK2MxB
ŗMi`2 /Qm T`Mi2x2- +m `QHmH /2 272+im +QKM/ șB /2 }ș
`2xmHiimH +2bi2B T2 2+`M- ŗM +2HșB iBKTVX ŖM T`2H#BH- 7Qbi
miBHBxi 7mM+ȧB b2iXb22/UV T2Mi`m + MmK2`2H2 ;2M2`i2 H2iQ` b }2
+2H2șB H Q miBHBx`2 mHi2`BQ` +QK2MxBB bKTH2UVX
oHQ`BH2 ;2M2`i2 Mm m b2KMB}+ȧB2 Ki2KiB+- /Q` ŗMHQ+mB2b+
+i2;Q`BBH2 dz6Q`i2 TmȧBMǴ- dzSmȧBMǴ- dzJmHiǴ șB dz6Q`i2 KmHiǴ- +`2 m ŗM
KQ/ 2pB/2Mi Q Q`/QM`2 T`2+Bb /2 H 2ti`2K 7Q`i2 TmȧBM H 2ti`2K
7Q`i2 KmHiX /Qm +QKM/ i`Mb7Q`K Q#B2+imH p`R ŗMi`@Q p`B#BH
Q`/BMH- T`BM T2H`2 7mM+ȧB2B 7+iQ`UV șB `;mK2Mi2HQ` +2bi2B
RkXk .2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ` +i2;Q`BH2 3d
= i#H2Up`RV
p`R
6Q`i2 TmȞBM SmȞBM JmHi 6Q`i2 KmHi
8 e 9 8
33 aiiBbiB+ /2b+`BTiBp ŗM _
= i#X7` I@ i#H2Up`RV
= i#X7`(9)
6Q`i2 KmHi
8
6XX 6X_X
RX 6Q`i2 TmȧBM 8 yXk8
kX SmȧBM e yXjy
jX JmHi 9 yXky
9X 6Q`i2 KmHi 8 yXk8
hQiH ky RXyy
= H2M;i?Up`RV
(R) ky
bm +m,
= bmKUi#X7`V
(R) ky
= i#X7`fbmKUi#X7`V
p`R
6Q`i2 TmȞBM SmȞBM JmHi 6Q`i2 KmHi
yXk8 yXjy yXky yXk8
bm +m,
= T`QTXi#H2Ui#X7`V
p`R
6Q`i2 TmȞBM SmȞBM JmHi 6Q`i2 KmHi
yXk8 yXjy yXky yXk8
Ny aiiBbiB+ /2b+`BTiBp ŗM _
= T`UK` 4 +Uk-e-R-RVV
= #`THQiUi#X7`- ?Q`Bx 4 h_l1- Hb 4 RV
= T`UK` 4 +Uk-e-R-RVV
= /Qi+?`iUi#X7`- tHBK 4 +Uy- eVV
= T`UM2r 4 h_l1V
= bvK#QHbUy- y- yX8- #; 4 ]r?Bi2]- BM+?2b 4 6Ga1V
= b2iXb22/URkj98V
= p`bi I@ bKTH2URe,Ny- R8y- `2TH+2 4 h_l1V
= p`2+ I@ `2TUk- H2M;i?Up`biVV O BMBiBHBx`2
= p`2+(p`bi I 9R) I@ R
= p`2+(p`bi = e8) I@ j
6XX
RX Re @ 9y MB 98
kX 9R @ e8 MB 98
jX ee @ Ny MB ey
hQiH R8y
RkXj .2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ` MmK2`B+2 Nd
= i#X7` I@ i#H2Up`biV
= KtUi#X7`V
N3 aiiBbiB+ /2b+`BTiBp ŗM _
(R) 8
= MK2bUi#X7`V(i#X7` 44 KtUi#X7`V)
(R) ]89] ]ek] ]dy] ]de]
JtBKmH /2 T`BȧB2 mM2B p`bi2 2bi2 /2 +BM+B Q`B- B` Ti`m /BMi`2 p`bi2H2
2tBbi2Mi2 ŗM p`B#BH p`bi T`2xBMi +2bi 7`2+p2Mȧ, 89 MB- ek MB-
dy MB șB de MB- iQi2 +2bi2 T` +m +22șB 7`2+p2Mȧ KtBK /2 8 Q`BX
+2bi 2bi2 +22 +2 b2 MmK2și2 Q p`B#BH KmHiB@KQ/H- +m KB KmHi2
KQ/m`BX 1tBbi +xm`B ŗM +`2 Q p`B#BH TQi2 p2 mM bBM;m` KQ/
Up`B#BH mMB@KQ/HV- bm +m /Qm KQ/m`B Up`B#BH #B@KQ/HV bm-
+mK 2bi2 +xmH B+B- +m KB KmHi2 KQ/m`BX .BM +2bi KQiBp- KQ/mH 2bi2 Q
/Q` T`BK ŗM+2`+`2 /2 /2i2`KBM +2Mi`mH /Bbi`B#mȧB2B- ŗMb Mm 2bi2
7Q`i2 2}+B2Mi /+ KB KmHi2 b2K2M2 pHQ`B 2tBbi ŗM b2imH /2 /i2X
P Hi Kbm` i2M/BMȧ2B +2Mi`H2- /2 Hi72H +2 KB miBHBxi /BMi`2 iQi2-
2bi2 +?B` K2/B p`B#BH2B- +`2 b2 +H+mH2x /mT 7Q`KmH +HbB+ bmK2B
pHQ`BHQ` bmT` MmK`mH /2 pHQ`B,
n
∑ xi
i =1
x= URkXRV
n
ŖM _- +H+mH`2 K2/B2B b2 7+2 i`BpBH +m,
= K2MUp`biV
(R) 88X98jjj
J2/B p2MBim`BHQ` +2HQ` Ry T2`bQM2 2bi2 /2 Rj3y H2B- B` bi`m+im` +2biQ`
2bi2 `2HiBp b2KMiQ`2- b2 ŗM+/`2x ŗMi`2 Q HBKBi KBMBK /2 3yy H2B
RkXj .2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ` MmK2`B+2 NN
= bQ`iUp2MBi(@RR)V
(R) 3yy Ry8y Rkyy Rjyy Rj8y R9yy R98y R8yy Rd8y kyyy
= K2/BMUp2MBi(@RR)V
(R) Rjd8
*Q/mH /2 KB bmb }ș2x pHQ`BH2 Q`/QMi2 +`2b+iQ`- KB TmȧBM mHiBK
U RRV BMi`Q/mb Mi2`BQ`X amMi Ry pHQ`B- B` K2/BM b2 ~ H KBDHQ+mH
/BbiMȧ2B /BMi`2 +BM+2 șB șb2 pHQ`2- /B+ ŗMi`2 Rj8y șB R9yyX
l`KiQ`2 +QKM/ }ș2x pHQ`2 K2/BM2B- 2;H +m Rjd8 H2BX
S2Mi`m p2`B}+`2 pBxmH T`Q+2bmHmB 2bi2 BKT2`iBp Q`/QM`2
pHQ`BHQ`- ŗMb +QKM/ K2/BMUV 7+2 +2bi Hm+`m ŗM KQ/ T`2/2}MBiX
l`KiQ`2H2 HBMBB /2 +Q/ }ș2x iQi2 pHQ`BH2- Q`/QMi2 /2 H +2 KB
KB+ U3yyV TM H +2 KB 2ti`2K pHQ`2 URyyyyVX ŖM iQiH- +mK bmMi
RR pHQ`B B` K2/BM 2bi2 +2 /BM KBDHQ+- /B+ șb2,
= bQ`iUp2MBiV
(R) 3yy Ry8y Rkyy Rjyy Rj8y R9yy R98y R8yy Rd8y kyyy Ryyyy
= K2/BMUp2MBiV
(R) R9yy
RkXj .2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ` MmK2`B+2 RyR
2bi2 +?B` pHQ`2 /BM KBDHQ+mH b2`B2B /2 /i2- B` /+ n 2bi2 mM MmK`
BKT` imM+B K2/BM b2 +H+mH2x H KBDHQ+mH /BbiMȧ2B /BMi`2 pHQ`BH2
/BM +2Mi`mH b2`B2B /2 /i2X
liBHBx`2 K2/BM2B `2 KmHiBTH2 pMiD2 bmT` miBHBx`BB K2/B2B- ŗM
bT2+BH imM+B +M/ 2tBbi pHQ`B 2ti`2K2 ŗM b2`B /2 /i2X S2Mi`m +2H2 Ry
pHQ`B BMBȧBH2- K2/BM 2` 2;H +m Rjd8 H2B- B` /mT BMi`Q/m+2`2
pHQ`BB 2ti`2K2 K2/BM /2p2MBi 2;H +m R9yy H2BX K#2H2 pHQ`B H2
K2/BM2B b2 ~ ŗMi`2 KBMBK /2 3yy șB KtBK /2 kyyy H2B +`2 /2}M2b+
K`2 KDQ`Bii2 2H2K2Mi2HQ`- /2+B K2/BM `2T`2xBMi Q 7Q`i2 #mM
2biBK`2 +2Mi`mHmB /Bbi`B#mȧB2BX
JB KmHi- /+ ŗM HQ+ /2 x2+2 KBB H2B ` } 7Qbi BMi`Q/mb pHQ`2 /2 mM
KBHBQM /2 H2B- K2/B b@` } /2THbi șB KB KmHi ŗM T`i2 /`2Ti
UNkRejXe9 H2BV- ŗMb K2/BM ` } `Kb iQi H pHQ`2 /2 R9yy H2BX
AM/B72`2Mi /2 K;MBim/BM2 pHQ`BHQ` 2ti`2K2- K2/BM `KM2 iQi ŗM
+2Mi`mH /Bbi`B#mȧB2B- ș/` 2bi2 BKmM H +ȧBmM2 +2biQ` pHQ`BX
ŖM +xmH mM2B /Bbi`B#mȧBB MQKH2- bBK2i`B+2- iQi2 +2H2 i`2B Kbm`B UK2/B-
K2/BM șB KQ/mHV bmMi 2;H2 șB b2 ~ ŗM 2t+i +2HșB HQ+ T2 +2Mi`mH
/Bbi`B#mȧB2B- B` /+ /Bbi`B#mȧB 2bi2 HmM;Bi K2/B Mm KB TQi2 } Q
#mM 2biBK`2 i2M/BMȧ2B +2Mi`H2X
ŖMBMi2 /2 BMi`Q/m+2`2 pHQ`BB 2ti`2K2 K2/B 2` 2;H +m Rj3y H2B- B`
K2/BM +m Rjd8 H2BX .mT BMi`Q/m+2`2 pHQ`BB 2ti`2K2- K2/B /2p2MBi
2;H +m kRejXe9 H2B ŗMb K2/BM `2xBbii ŗM +2Mi`m- H pHQ`2 /2 R9yy
H2BX
K#2H2 pHQ`B H2 K2/BM2B URjd8- `2bT2+iBp R9yy H2BV b2 ~ ŗM +22șB
xQM +m pHQ`2 K2/B2B T2Mi`m Q /Bbi`B#mȧB2 MQ`KH URj3y H2BV ș/`
b2 /2KQMbi`2x 7TimH + K2/BM 2bi2 +2 KB #mM Kbm` T2Mi`m
/2i2`KBM`2 i2M/BMȧ2B +2Mi`H2- BM/B72`2Mi /+ b2`B /2 /i2 `2 bm Mm
pHQ`B 2ti`2K2 UșB TQi2 KB BKTQ`iMi- BM/B72`2Mi /2 K;MBim/BM2
+2biQ` pHQ`B 2ti`2K2VX
aR, R k j 9 8 e d 3
ak, k k 9 9 8 8 d d
aj, 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8
ii K2/B- +i șB K2/BM T2Mi`m iQi2 +2H2 i`2B b2`BB /2 /i2 m 2t+i
+22șB pHQ`2- MmK2 9X8 U/Q` pHQ`BH2 KQ/H2 /B72`- ŗMb iQi2 b2`BBH2
m KQ/ KmHiBTHmVX Cm/2+M/ /Q` /BM T2`bT2+iBp i2M/BMȧ2B +2Mi`H2-
7` BMbT2+ȧB imim`Q` b2`BBHQ` /2 /i2 b@` Tmi2 +QMbii + bmMi
b2KMiQ`2X
= bR I@ R,3
= bk I@ `2TU+Uk-9-8-dV- 2+? 4 kV
= bj I@ `2TU9,8- 2+? 4 9V
= +UK2MUbRV- K2/BMUbRVV
(R) 9X8 9X8
= +UK2MUbkV- K2/BMUbkVV
(R) 9X8 9X8
= +UK2MUbjV- K2/BMUbjVV
(R) 9X8 9X8
ŖM KQ/ 2pB/2Mi ŗMb- 2H2 /B72` 7Q`i2 KmHi bm# bT2+imH p`B2iȧBB /i2HQ`,
T`BK b2`B2 2bi2 2ti`2K /2 p`Bi +m QTi MmK2`2 /B72`Bi2 ŗMi`2 2H2- /Qm
b2`B2 2bi2 KB TmȧBM p`Bi +m /Q` Ti`m MmK2`2 mMB+2 B` i`2B 2bi2
+2 KB TmȧBM p`Bi +m /Q` /Qm MmK2`2 mMB+2X .2b+`B2`2 +2biQ` b2`BB
/2 /i2 i`2#mB2 +QKTH2ii +m Hi2 Kbm`B +`2 b +QKTH2i2x2 BK;BM2
7Q`Ki ŗM +/`mH i2M/BMȧ2B +2Mi`H2X
+2bi2 Kbm`B /BȧBQMH2 b2 MmK2b+ Kbm`B H2 p`BȧB2B șB Q72` Q Hi
/2b+`B2`2 bmT` /i2HQ`- /BM T2`bT2+iBp /B72`2Mȧ2B Ubm BMp2`b-
b2KM`BBV /BMi`2 2H2K2Mi2X ŖM HBK#D biiBbiB+- /B72`2Mȧ2H2 bmMi
+mKmHi2 ŗM +QM+2TimH /2 dz2i2`Q;2MBii2Ǵ B` b2KM`BH2 ŗM +QM+2TimH
QTmb /2 dzQKQ;2MBii2ǴX
P p`B#BH 2bi2 /2MmKBi 2i2`Q;2M /+ 2H2K2Mi2H2 +`2 Q H+imB2b+ bmMi
7Q`i2 /B72`Bi2 ŗMi`2 2H2 șB 2bi2 /2MmKBi QKQ;2M /+ 2H2K2Mi2H2 +`2 Q
H+imB2b+ bmMi b2KMiQ`2 ŗMi`2 2H2X amMi +QM+2Ti2 QTmb2- ŗMi`m+i Q
p`B#BH 2ti`2K /2 2i2`Q;2M 2bi2 ŗM +2HșB iBKT Q p`B#BH 7Q`i2 TmȧBM
QKQ;2M șB BMp2`bX
ŖM +xmH +2HQ` i`2B b2`BB /2 /i2- 2bi2 2pB/2Mi 7TimH + T`BK b2`B2 2bi2
+2 KB 2i2`Q;2M /BMi`2 iQi2 B` +2 /2 i`2B 2bi2 +2 KB QKQ;2MX
+2bi /B72`2MȧB2`2 ŗMb TQi2 } `2HBxi șB +m DmiQ`mH mMQ` Kbm`B
MmK2`B+2 +`2 b i2bi2 +i /2 2i2`Q;2M șB +i /2 QKQ;2M 2bi2 Q p`B#BHX
RkXj .2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ` MmK2`B+2 Ryj
= `M;2UbRV
(R) R 3
= `M;2UbkV
(R) k d
= `M;2UbjV
(R) 9 8
= bR @ K2MUbRV
(R) @jX8 @kX8 @RX8 @yX8 yX8 RX8 kX8 jX8
ŖM b2`B /2 /i2 bR }2+`2 pHQ`2 `2 Q /BbiMȧ 7ȧ /2 K2/B2- ș ŗM+i
iQi2 +2bi2 /BbiMȧ2 i`2#mB2 miBHBxi2 T2Mi`m Q#ȧBM2 Q bBM;m` Kbm`
Ry9 aiiBbiB+ /2b+`BTiBp ŗM _
n
∑ ( x i − x )2
i =1
s2 = URkXkV
n−1
= p`UbRV
(R) e
= p`UbkV
(R) jXdR9k3e
= p`UbjV
(R) yXk38dR9j
√
s= s2 URkXjV
RkXj .2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ` MmK2`B+2 Ry8
= b/UbRV
(R) kX99N9N
= b/UbkV
(R) RXNkdk93
= b/UbjV
(R) yX8j98kk8
*2 KB K`2 #i2`2 biM/`/ 2bi2 +2 T2Mi`m b2`B /2 /i2 s1 U+`2 `2
p`BȧB +2 KB K`2 /i2HQ`V ŗMb pHQ`2 /2 kX98 2bi2 K`2 /Q` ŗM
+QKT`ȧB2 +m K2/B /2 9X8X .+ K2/B p`B#BH2B ` } 2;H +m Ryy- Q
#i2`2 biM/`/ 2;H +m kX98 ` BM/B+ ŗM 7Ti Q p`B#BH 7Q`i2 QKQ;2MX
ŖM +QM+HmxB2- pHQ`2 #i2`BB biM/`/ b2 Dm/2+ ŗM +QKT`ȧB2 +m
pHQ`2 K2/B2B p`B#BH2B, /+ `2T`2xBMi Q T`QTQ`ȧB2 KB+ /BM K2/B2-
p`BȧB 2bi2 KB+ B` /+ `2T`2xBMi Q T`QTQ`ȧB2 K`2 /BM K2/B2-
p`BȧB 2bi2 K`2X
= bmKK`vUp2MBiV
JBMX Rbi ZmX J2/BM J2M j`/ ZmX JtX
3yy Rk8y R9yy kRe9 Rek8 Ryyyy
= bmKK`vUp2MBi(@RR)V
JBMX Rbi ZmX J2/BM J2M j`/ ZmX JtX
3yy Rkk8 Rjd8 Rj3y R933 kyyy
Ryyyy 2bi2 mM 2ti`2K- ŗMb 7Q`i2 TmȧBM 2pB/2Mi 7Qbi 7TimH + pHQ`2
/2 kyyy 2bi2 mM 2ti`2K- ŗM +QKT`ȧB2 +m `2bimH /i2HQ`X
P pHQ`2 2ti`2K 2bi2 Q pHQ`2 p`2 b2 ~ ŗM 7` mMQ` T`;m`B- /2}MBi2
/2 RX8 #i2`B BMi2`[m`iBH2 ŗM biM; [m`iBH2B Q1 șB iQi /2 RX8 #i2`B
BMi2`[m`iBH2 ŗM /`2Ti [m`iBH2B Q3 X ŖM +xmH p`B#BH2B p2MBi- +2 /2
i`2B [m`iBH `2 Q pHQ`2 /2 R933 B` #i2`2 BMi2`[m`iBH `2 Q pHQ`2
/2 1488 − 1225 = 263- +22 +2 ŗMb2KM + T`;mH /BM /`2Ti 2bi2 /2
Q3 + 1.5 · AIQ = 1488 + 1.5 · 263 = 1882.5 B` Q`B+2 pHQ`2 T2bi2 +2bi
T`; b2 /2}M2și2 + }BM/ 2ti`2KX *mK pHQ`2 /2 kyyy 2bi2 KB K`2
/2+i +2bi T`;- 2bi2 Q pHQ`2 2ti`2KX
.2bB;m`- pHQ`2 /2 Ryyyy 2bi2 +m bB;m`Mȧ 2ti`2K- +m /B72`2Mȧ ŗMi`2
pHQ`B 2ti`2K2 KQ/2`i2 U+mK 2bi2 kyyyV șB pHQ`B 2ti`2K2 Tmi2`MB+2 U+mK
2bi2 RyyyyVX
*TBiQHmH Rj
MHBx 2+QMQK2i`B+ ŗM _X
JQ/2HmH HBM2` /2 `2;`2bB2
Y = f ( X, e) URjXRV
M (Y/X ) = a0 + a1 X URjXkV
Y = M(Y/X ) + e URjXjV
Y = a0 + a1 X + e URjX9V
*`Bi2`BmH THB+i ŗM +xmH K2iQ/2B +2HQ` KB KB+B Ti`i2 2bi2 m`KiQ`mH,
/`2Ti +`2 bB;m` +2 KB #mM Dmbi`2 TmM+i2HQ` 2KTB`B+2
U/`2Ti /2 `2;`2bB2V 2bi2 +22 T2Mi`m +`2 b2 KBMBKBx2x bmK
Ti`i2HQ` #i2`BHQ` /BMi`2 TmM+i2H2 /2 T2 ;`}+ șB TmM+i2H2 +`2 m
+2BșB #b+Bb T2 /`2Ti /2 `2;`2bB2- #i2`BH2 }BM/ Kbm`i2 p2`iB+HX
MHBiB+- b2 MQi2x F ( a!0 , a!1 ) bmK Ti`i2HQ` #i2`BHQ` m /BMi`2 pHQ`BH2
RjXR _2;`2bB mMB7+iQ`BH RRR
n n n
F ( a!0 , a!1 )) = ∑ u2t = ∑ (Yt − Y!t )2 = ∑ (Yt − a!0 − a!1Yt )2 URjXeV
t =1 t =1 t =1
J2iQ/ +2HQ` KB KB+B Ti`i2 +QMbi ŗM /2i2`KBM`2- T2Mi`m mM b2i /i
/2 Q#b2`pȧBB- +2HQ` pHQ`B a!0 șB a!1 +`2 KBMBKBx2x 7mM+ȧB F ( a!0 , a!1 )X
1t2KTHm
.BMi`@Q +2`+2i`2 biiBbiB+ b2 T`2bmTmM2 + m 7Qbi B/2MiB}+i2 8 b2im`B
+i2 k8 /2 pHQ`B U/2 2t2KTHm- p2MBim`B- BMp2biBȧBB- +?2HimB2HB +m +2`+2i`2
2i+XVX 6B2 X1- X2- X3- X4 șB Y b2`BBH2 `2bT2+iBp2X h`2#mB2 b b2
BM/2MiB}+2 /+ +2șiB 7+iQ`B BM~m2Mȧ2x p2MBim`BH2- ŗM +2 Kbm` șB +2
;`/ ŗM+`2/2`2 b2 TQi2 p2 ŗM BM7Q`KȧBBH2 Q#ȧBMmi2X
S`BK 2iT T2Mi`m KQ/2H`2 2+QMQK2i`B+ ŗM _ T`2bmTmM2 ŗM+`+`2
/i2HQ`,
= /i2H2nK2H2 I@ /iX7`K2U
sR 4 +Uj- k- yX3- kX8- k- RX9- kX8- kX8- j- RX9- R- RXk- RXe- RX3-
R- kX3- jX8- kXe- kX9- jX9- RXe- RXN- jX8- RXe- jV-
sk 4 +URXj- kX3- RX8- yXk- RX3- 9- RX3- k- yX8- kX3- jXk- kX8- RXj-
kXk- jX8- RXR- y- yXk- k- RXk- j- j- yXe- jXk- yXjV-
sj 4 +UkXR- kX9- RXR- RX9- RXN- kXd- kXk- kXj- RXd- kXR- kXR- RX3-
RX8- k- kXj- k- RXd- RX9- kXk- kXj- kXj- kX8- kXR- kX9- RXeV-
s9 4 +UkX9- RXe- yXe- k- RXe- RXR- k- k- kX9- RXR- yX3- R- RXj- RX9-
yX3- kXk- kX3- kXR- RXN- kXd- RXj- RX8- kX3- RXj- kX9V-
u 4 +Uk- yX8- RX8- j- R- y- kXR- RX3- j- yXd- yX8- R- RX9- RXk-
yX3- kXj- jX8- jX3- RX3- kXe- yX3- RXk- 9Xk- yX3- kX8VV
= ?2/U/i2H2nK2H2V
sR sk sj s9 u
R jXy RXj kXR kX9 kXy
RRk MHBx 2+QMQK2i`B+ ŗM _X JQ/2HmH HBM2` /2 `2;`2bB2
Yt = a0 + a1 X1t + et URjX3V
= bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V
*HH,
HKU7Q`KmH 4 u sR- /i 4 /i2H2nK2H2V
_2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@RXy3yR @yXjjyj @yXRdNd yXkN89 RX898k
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` i pHm2 S`U=%i%V
UAMi2`+2TiV @yXeeNy yXjd9d @RXd38 yXy3d9 X
sR RXRk98 yXReke eXNR9 9Xde2@yd
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
= QmiTmi I@ bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V
= aa_ I@ /2pBM+2U`2;`2bB2V
= GG I@ HQ;GBFU`2;`2bB2V
= :`/2n/2nHB#2`ii2 I@ `2;`2bB20/7
= u2bi I@ `2;`2bB207Bii2/XpHm2b
= *Q27 I@ `2;`2bB20+Q277B+B2Mib
= _2bB/ I@ `2;`2bB20`2bB/mHb
= b I@ QmiTmi0bB;K
= _a[m`2/ I@ QmiTmi0`Xb[m`2/
= *QpJi`Bt I@ bk QmiTmi0+Qp
mM/2
oHQ`2 2biBKi Y
! p },
1t2KTHm
*HH,
HKU7Q`KmH 4 u sR Y sk- /i 4 /i2H2nK2H2V
_2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@yXdR8ye @yXRdR9N yXyR9R9 yXRkRNd RXy8dd9
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` i pHm2 S`U=%i%V
UAMi2`+2TiV RXN3je yX8jdN jXe33 yXyyRkN
sR yX99y8 yXRej9 kXeNe yXyRjR3
sk @yXej3d yXRR8y @8X88j RX92@y8
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
*m MQiȧBBH2, ⎛ ⎞
Y1
⎜ Y2 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ ⎟
Y = ⎜ Y3 ⎟ URjXReV
⎜ XX ⎟
⎝ X⎠
Yn
⎛ ⎞
1 X11 X21 · · · Xk1
⎜1 X12 X22 · · · Xk2 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ Xk3 ⎟
X = ⎜1 X13 X23 · · · ⎟ URjXRdV
⎜ XX XX XX XX ⎟
⎝X X X X ⎠
1 X1n X2n · · · Xkn
⎛ ⎞
a0
⎜ a1 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ ⎟
A = ⎜ a2 ⎟ URjXR3V
⎜ XX ⎟
⎝X⎠
ak
⎛ ⎞
e1
⎜ e2 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ ⎟
e = ⎜ e3 ⎟ URjXRNV
⎜ XX ⎟
⎝X⎠
en
1t2KTHm
6B2 m`KiQ`2H2 KQ/2H2 HBM2`2,
@ KQ/2HmH `2;`2bB2j,
Yt = a0 + a1 X1t + a2 X2t + a3 X3t + et URjXkkV
@ KQ/2HmH `2;`2bB29
Yt = a0 + a1 X1t + a2 X2t + a3 X3t + a4 X4t + et URjXkjV
*HH,
HKU7Q`KmH 4 u X- /i 4 /i2H2nK2H2V
_2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@yXdj3jR @yXRNRRy @yXyykNe yXR8k9j yX3e3dy
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` i pHm2 S`U=%i%V
UAMi2`+2TiV kXRRk3 yX8j88 jXN98 yXyyy3
sR @jX3key jXdj8k @RXyk9 yXjRdN
sk @kX88k3 RXRN39 @kXRjy yXy983
sj jXd888 kXjj98 RXeyN yXRkj9
s9 kXN93R 9XjkN9 yXe3R yX8yjd
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
Y!t = 2.1128 − 3.8260 ∗ X1t − 2.5528 ∗ X2t + 3.7555 ∗ X3t + 2.9481 ∗ X4t
URjXk9V
1biBKiQ`BB /BM KQ/2HmH HBM2`- +H+mHȧB T`BM K2iQ/ +2HQ` KB KB+B
Ti`i2- bmMi p`B#BH2 H2iQ`2 `2T`iBxi2 MQ`KH șB m K2/B 2;H +m
pHQ`2 T`K2i`mHmB T2 +`2 ŗH 2biBK2x UbmMi M2/2THbȧBVX 6BBM/
p`B#BH2 H2iQ`2- 2biBKiQ`BB TQi p2 Ĝ 2pB/2Mi- +m T`Q##BHBiȧB
/B72`Bi2 Ĝ Q`B+2 pHQ`2 bBimi ŗMi`@mM MmKBi BMi2`pHX .+ +2bi
BMi2`pH +QMȧBM2 șB pHQ`2 x2`Q- imM+B- +m Q T`Q##BHBii2 +`2 TQi2 }
+H+mHi- 2biBKiQ`BB TQi Hm pHQ`2 x2`QX .2 2t2KTHm- ŗM KQ/2HmH
mMB7+iQ`BH- BMi2MbBii2 H2;im`BB /BMi`2 X șB Y 2bi2 /i /2 pHQ`2
T`K2i`mHmB a1 - 2biBKi T`BM a!1 X .+ 2biBKiQ`mH a!1 TQi2 } x2`Q +m Q
RR3 MHBx 2+QMQK2i`B+ ŗM _X JQ/2HmH HBM2` /2 `2;`2bB2
a!i
t a!i = URjXk8V
s a!i
= bmKK`vU`2;`2bB29V
*HH,
HKU7Q`KmH 4 u X- /i 4 /i2H2nK2H2V
_2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@yXdj3jR @yXRNRRy @yXyykNe yXR8k9j yX3e3dy
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` i pHm2 S`U=%i%V
UAMi2`+2TiV kXRRk3 yX8j88 jXN98 yXyyy3
sR @jX3key jXdj8k @RXyk9 yXjRdN
sk @kX88k3 RXRN39 @kXRjy yXy983
sj jXd888 kXjj98 RXeyN yXRkj9
s9 kXN93R 9XjkN9 yXe3R yX8yjd
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
RjX9 *Q2}+B2MimH /2 /2i2`KBM`2 șB +`Bi2`BB /2 bT2+B}+`2 RRN
S`BM K2iQ/ +2HQ` KB KB+B Ti`i2 b2 /2i2`KBM +2 2+mȧB2 /2 `2;`2bB2
T2Mi`m +`2 bmK Ti`i2HQ` #i2`BHQ` /BMi`2 /i2H2 ŗM`2;Bbi`i2 șB +2H2
+H+mHi2 2bi2 +2 KB KB+ TQbB#BH- T2Mi`m +Hb /2 KQ/2H2 `2bT2+iBp2X
S`Q#H2K +`2 b2 `B/B+- ŗM +QMiBMm`2- 2bi2 +22 Kbm`BB ŗM +`2
p`BȧB 2tQ;2M2B TQi2 2tTHB+ 2pQHmȧB p`B#BH2B 2M/Q;2M2X
∑nt=1 u2t
R2 = 1 − URjXkeV
∑nt=1 (Yt − Ȳ )2
Rky MHBx 2+QMQK2i`B+ ŗM _X JQ/2HmH HBM2` /2 `2;`2bB2
n−1
R2 = 1 − (1 − R2 ) URjXkdV
n−k−1
mM/2 M 2bi2 /BK2MbBmM2 2șMiBQMmHmB șB F MmK`mH /2 p`B#BH2
2tTHB+iBp2X
1t2KTHm
= O+Q27B+B2MimH /2 /2i2`KBM`2
= UbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`Xb[m`2/V
(R) yXed8Re39
= O+Q27B+B2MimH /2 /2i2`KBM`2 Dmbii
= UbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0/DX`Xb[m`2/V
(R) yXeeRy98j
= UbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2kV0/DX`Xb[m`2/V
(R) yX38k9j8
= UbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2jV0/DX`Xb[m`2/V
(R) yX3eR3N8j
= UbmKK`vU`2;`2bB29V0/DX`Xb[m`2/V
(R) yX383kd83
1t2KTHm
.2Q`2+2 /BK2MbBmM2 2șMiBQMmHmB 2bi2 `2HiBp KB+- b2 `2+QKM/
miBHBx`2 i2bimHmB "A*,
lMmH /BMi`2 +2H2 KB +mMQb+mi2 i2bi2 T`BpBM/ MQ`KHBii2 2`Q`BHQ` 2bi2
i2bimH C`[m2@"2` UC`[m2 ȔB "2`- RN3y-#V- i2bi +`2 7QHQb2și2
KQK2Mi2H2 M2+2Mi`i2 H2 `2xB/mm`BHQ` T2Mi`m 2biBK +QM7Q`KBii2
/Bbi`B#mȧB 2`Q`BHQ`X JQK2MimH +2Mi`i /2 Q`/BM ` H 2`Q`BHQ` 2bi2,
∑nt=1 urt
µr = URjXk3V
n
h2bimH 2bi2 7Q`KmHi bi72H,
- . /2 0 . /
1 µ23 1 µ4 3 µ21 µ3 ∗ µ1
JB = n ∗ + ∗ −3 +n ∗ − URjXkNV
6 µ32 24 µ22 2 µ2 µ22
= HB#``vUib2`B2bV
= D`[m2X#2`Xi2biUbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHbV
/i, bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHb
s@b[m`2/ 4 kXkkyj- /7 4 k- T@pHm2 4 yXjkN8
1t2KTHm
a2 ŗM+`+ T+?2imH MQ`i2biX .+ Mm 2bi2 /2b+`+i- b2 p 7QHQbB +QKM/
= BMbiHHXT+F;2bU]MQ`i2bi]V h2bimH M/2`bQM@.`HBM;,
Rk9 MHBx 2+QMQK2i`B+ ŗM _X JQ/2HmH HBM2` /2 `2;`2bB2
= /Xi2biUbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHbV
/i, bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHb
4 yX8Ne3- T@pHm2 4 yXRy38
= +pKXi2biUbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHbV
/i, bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHb
q 4 yXRyed- T@pHm2 4 yXy38yN
= HBHHB2Xi2biUbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHbV
/i, bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHb
. 4 yXR8eR- T@pHm2 4 yXRkyk
= T2`bQMXi2biUbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHbV
/i, bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHb
S 4 RRXRe- T@pHm2 4 yXy93j
= b7Xi2biUbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHbV
/i, bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2V0`2bB/mHb
q 4 yXN9k8- T@pHm2 4 yXR9Nd
RjX8 h2bi`2 BTQi2x2HQ` `272`BiQ`2 H 2`Q`BH2 /BM KQ/2H Rk8
h2bimH .m`#BM Ĝ qibQM U.m`#BM ȔB qibQM- RN8y- RN8RV 2bi2 +2 KB
+mMQb+mi T`Q+2/m` miBHBxi T2Mi`m B/2MiB}+`2 miQ+Q`2H`BB /2
Q`/BMmH ŗMiB 2`Q`BHQ` /BM KQ/2H2H2 /2 `2;`2bB2 HBM2`X aiiBbiB+
.m`#BM Ĝ qibQM b2 +H+mH2x bi72H,
∑nt=2 (ut − ut−1 )2
dw = URjXjyV
∑nt=1 u2t
1t2KTHm
h2bimH .m`#BM@qibQM b2 ;b2și2 ŗM T+?2imH HKi2bi șB b2 7QHQb2și2
T2HM/ 7mM+ȧB /ri2biUV,
= HB#``vUHKi2biV
RjX8 h2bi`2 BTQi2x2HQ` `272`BiQ`2 H 2`Q`BH2 /BM KQ/2H Rkd
= /ri2biU`2;`2bB2V
.m`#BM@qibQM i2bi
/i, `2;`2bB2
.q 4 RXNyjj- T@pHm2 4 yXjNkN
Hi2`MiBp2 ?vTQi?2bBb, i`m2 miQ+Q``2HiBQM Bb ;`2i2` i?M y
RjX8Xj JmHiB+QHBM2`Bii2
Ç _2;`2bB `B/;2
1t2KTHm
h2bimH "Eq b2 ;b2și2 ŗM T+?2imH T2`im`#,
= HB#``vUT2`im`#V
= Oi2bi2x KmHiB+QHBM2`Bii2
= +QHH/B;U`2;`2bB29- //XBMi2`+2Ti 4 6Ga1- b+H2 4 6Ga1V
*QM/BiBQM
AM/2t o`BM+2 .2+QKTQbBiBQM S`QTQ`iBQMb
sR sk sj s9
R RXyyy yXyyy yXyyy yXyyy yXyyy
k kXdR9 yXyyy yXyyk yXyyy yXyyy
j RkjXeed yXyRe yXNjy yXNjy yXyj9
9 ke9Xeye yXN39 yXye3 yXydy yXNe8
= HB#``vU+`V
= pB7U`2;`2bB29V
sR sk sj s9
RkeRX98dd keRXN9ky RRjX3ReN Ry3jXkedN
*HH,
HKU7Q`KmH 4 u sk Y sj Y s9- /i 4 /i2H2nK2H2V
_2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@yXdy9kk @yXkyjed yXyjNyd yXRd9y3 yXNkN3k
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` i pHm2 S`U=%i%V
UAMi2`+2TiV kXy3R8 yX8j8j jX333 yXyyy393
sk @kXy39N RXRyNk @RX33y yXyd9yNe X
sj kX3jyd kXR889 RXjRj yXkyjkj3
s9 @RXk8R3 RXjNRd @yX3NN yXjd3eR9
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
sk sj s9
R RXyyy yXyyy yXyyy yXyyy
k kX3jR yXyyk yXyyy yXyyk
j RyeXekd yXNN3 RXyyy yXNN3
= pB7U`2;`2bB28V
sk sj s9
kkjX339N9 NeXdNjNk RRRXedjRe
*HH,
HKU7Q`KmH 4 u sj Y s9- /i 4 /i2H2nK2H2V
_2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@yXdRdye @yXRk93d @yXyjR9N yXR9kRd RXyNNNd
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` i pHm2 S`U=%i%V
UAMi2`+2TiV RX3jk8 yX89dd jXj9e yXyykNj
sj @RXRNNe yXkjkR @8XReN jX8y2@y8
s9 RXj8k9 yXRjN8 NXeN9 kXRk2@yN
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
= +QHH/B;U`2;`2bB2eV
*QM/BiBQM
AM/2t o`BM+2 .2+QKTQbBiBQM S`QTQ`iBQMb
BMi2`+2Ti sj s9
R RXyyy yXyyj yXyy9 yXyR9
k 8X8jN yXykk yXRyy yX39y
j RjX8jy yXNd8 yX3Ne yXR9e
Rjk MHBx 2+QMQK2i`B+ ŗM _X JQ/2HmH HBM2` /2 `2;`2bB2
= D`[m2X#2`Xi2biUbmKK`vU`2;`2bB2eV0`2bB/mHbV
/i, bmKK`vU`2;`2bB2eV0`2bB/mHb
s@b[m`2/ 4 RX3jed- /7 4 k- T@pHm2 4 yXjNNk
= /ri2biU`2;`2bB2eV
.m`#BM@qibQM i2bi
/i, `2;`2bB2e
.q 4 RXeRye- T@pHm2 4 yXR9kj
Hi2`MiBp2 ?vTQi?2bBb, i`m2 miQ+Q``2HiBQM Bb ;`2i2` i?M y
*TBiQHmH R9
_2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+
KB KmHi2 +i2;Q`BB /2 `bTmMbc /+ 2tBbi /Qm +i2;Q`BB- p`B#BH 2bi2
/2 iBT #BM` bm /B?QiQKB+ U/2 2t2KTHm- p`B#BH b2t TQi2 ŗM`2;Bbi`
/Qm pHQ`B, Kb+mHBM șB 72KBMBMV Ĝ ŗM +2bi +x b2 THB+ `2;`2bB
HQ;BbiB+ #BMQKBHc /+ 2tBbi KB KmHi2 +i2;Q`BB /2 `bTmMb H2
p`B#BH2B `2xmHii- b2 THB+ `2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBMQKBH U/2 2t2KTHm-
p`B#BH MBp2H /2 2/m+ȧB2 TQi2 ŗM`2;Bbi` KB KmHi2 +i2;Q`BB, b+xmi-
K2/Bm bm ŗMHiVX JB KmHi- /+ +2bi2 +i2;Q`BB bmMi Q`/QMi2- /B+
p`B#BH /2T2M/2Mi 2bi2 Q`/BMH- b2 THB+ `2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ Q`/BMHX
JQ/2H2H2 /2 `2;`2bB2 T2Mi`m +`2 p`B#BH /2T2M/2Mi 2bi2 +HBiiBp TQi
} /2 iBT T`Q#Bi bm HQ;Bi- }BM/ /B72`Bi2 ŗM +22 +2 T`Bp2și2 bT2+B}+`2
/Bbi`B#mȧB2B 2`Q`BHQ`X .+ /Bbi`B#mȧB +mKmHi 2`Q`BHQ` 2bi2 Q 7mM+ȧB2
HQ;BbiB+ `2xmHi mM KQ/2H /2 iBT HQ;BiX .+ /Bbi`B#mȧB +mKmHi 2`Q`BHQ`
m`K2x Q /Bbi`B#mȧB2 MQ`KH- `2xmHi mM KQ/2H /2 iBT T`Q#BiX
_2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ TQi2 p2 mM bm KB KmHi2 p`B#BH2 BM/2T2M/2Mi2
( xi )- /2MmKBi2 șB T`2/B+iQ`B- bm p`B#BH2 2tTHB+iBp2c ŗM KQ/2H2H2 /2
`2;`2bB2 HQ;BbiB+- p`B#BH2H2 2tTHB+iBp2 TQi } +QMiBMm2 șBfbm
+i2;Q`BH2X
Ç p pQifMm p pQic
lM/2,
Ç Q#b 4 Q#b2`pȧB
Ç v #2M2}+B`fMQM@#2M2}+B`
Ç t 4 p2MBimH K2/Bm HmM`
= /i2k I@ bm#b2iU/i2- v 44 RV
= ii+? U/i2V
= THQiUt-vV
p
Ω= UR9XRV
1− p
mM/2,
p 2bi2 T`Q##BHBii2 + y b B pHQ`2 R- /B+ 72MQK2MmH b
ŗM`2;Bbi`2x2 mM bm++2b- T`Q##BHBii2 +QM/BȧBQMi /2 pHQ`BH2 p`B#BH2B
BM/2T2M/2Mi2 xc
(1 − p) 2bi2 T`Q##BHBii2 + y b B pHQ`2 y- /B+ 2p2MBK2MimH b
ŗM`2;Bbi`2x2 mM 2ș2+- /2 b2K2M2 T`Q##BHBii2 /2 BMbm++2b }BM/
+QM/BȧBQMi /2 BM~m2Mȧ HmB xX
.2 2t2KTHm,
logit( p) = β 0 + β 1 x UR9XjV
p
= e β0 + β1 x UR9X9V
1− p
j S2 #x mM2B T`QT`B2iȧB Ki2KiB+2 7mM+ȧB2B 2tTQM2MȧBH2 eln( A) = A
R9Xk _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ bBKTH RjN
/B+-
Ω = e β0 + β1 x UR9X8V
mM/2,
e β0 + β1 x
p= UR9XeV
1 + e β0 + β1 x
mM KQ/2H 2bi2 @ KB KmHi bm KB TmȧBM Ĝ p2`QbBKBH imM+B +M/- 7QHQbBM/
p`B#BH2H2 BM/2T2M/2Mi2 /BM KQ/2H- b2 TQi 2biBK +Q`2+i pHQ`BH2
p`B#BH2B /2T2M/2Mi2 yX *QM+2TimH /2 p2`QbBKBHBii2 TQi2 } miBHBxi ŗM
+H+mH`2 +Q2}+B2MȧBHQ` /2 `2;`2bB2 T2 #x mMmB H;Q`BiK Bi2`iBp-
/2MmKBi K2iQ/ p2`QbBKBHBiȧBB KtBK2 UJtBKmK@GBF2HB?QQ/
1biBKiBQM @ JG1VX J2iQ/ 7Qbi BMi`Q/mb /2 _X X 6Bb+?2` ŗM RNRk șB
b2 #x2x T2 i`Mb7Q`K`2 p`B#BH2B /2T2M/2Mi2 ŗMi`@Q p`B#BH /2 iBT
logit UHQ;`BiKmH Mim`H H șMb2B + 2p2MBK2MimH b b2 T`Q/m+ bm MmVX
S`Q#H2K 2biBK`BB +Q2}+B2MȧBHQ` HQ;Bi 2bi2 /2 /2i2`KBM- T2 #x
b2imHmB /2 pHQ`B Q#b2`pi2- +2H2 pHQ`B H2 T`K2i`BHQ` β 0 ȔB β 1 bi72H
ŗM+i KQ/2HmH Ki2KiB+ logit( p) = β 0 + β 1 x b TQi /2b+`B2 +i KB
+`2/B#BHf+Q`2+i 72MQK2MmH Q#b2`pi- ŗM b2MbmH + 2bi2 +T#BH b /2b+`B2
+QKTQ`iK2MimH 72MQK2MmHmB șB ŗM Hi2 TmM+i2 +`2 Mm 7+ T`i2 /BM
KmHȧBK2 BMBȧBH /2 Q#b2`pȧBBX Hi72H bTmb- T`Q#H2K +QMbi ŗM ;bB`2
+2HQ` pHQ`B T2Mi`m T`K2i`BB KQ/2HmHmB +`2 pQ` bB;m` p2`QbBKBHBii2
KtBKX +2bi2 pHQ`B b2 pQ` MQi +m β̂ 0 - β̂ 1 ȔB +QMbiBimB2 ș MmKBi2H2
2biBKȧBB H2 T`K2i`BHQ` KQ/2HmHmB ŗM b2MbmH p2`QbBKBHBiȧBB KtBK2X
ŖM 2t2KTHmH ŗM +`2 b2 +mMQb+ /i2H2 `272`BiQ`2 H p2MBimH K2/BmH HmM`
Q#ȧBMmi /2 n = 35 T2`bQM2- KQ/2HmH /2 `2;`2bB2 HQ;BbiB+ 2biBK2x
T`Q##BHBii2 + T2`bQM b #2M2}+B2x2 /2 bT`BDBM }MM+B` /BM T`i2
biimHmB Uy = 1V ŗM +QM/BȧBBH2 mMmB p2MBi K2/Bm HmM` /i UxVX
.2i2`KBM`2 +Q2}+B2MȧBHQ` HQ;Bi b2 7+2 T2 #x mMmB H;Q`BiK +`2
`2HBx2x i2bi`2 H2iQ`2 p2`QbBKBHBiȧBB KQ/2HmHmB /2 `2;`2bB2
R9Xk _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ bBKTH R9R
liBHBxM/ /i2H2 /BM 2t2KTHmH /i- b2 THB+ 7mM+ȧB ;HKUV +`2 +`22x
mM KQ/2H /2 `2;`2bB2 HBMB` ;2M2`HBxi U:GJV T2Mi`m Q /Bbi`B#mȧB2
#BMQKBHX
*HH,
= ;HKU7Q`KmH 4 v t- 7KBHv 4 ]#BMQKBH]- /i 4 /i2nHQ;BiV
.2pBM+2 _2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@jXyk8d @yXR9k9 yXR93d yXj98k yXNRN3
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` x pHm2 S`U=%x%V
UAMi2`+2TiV 8X9N8N83 RXd3k88R jXy3j yXyyky8
t @yXyy933N yXyyRe39 @kXNyj yXyyjdy
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ^ ^ yXyyR ^ ^ yXyR ^ ^ yXy8 ^X^ yXR ^ ^ R
a2KMB}+ȧB T`K2i`BHQ`
bm ŗM +xmH #BM`- +M/ x 2bi2 RX lM2Q`B- 2bi2 KB mșQ` /2 BMi2`T`2ii
e β1 @ +`2 b2KMB}+ 272+imH ;2M2`i /2 +Q2}+B2MimH /2 `2;`2bB2 β 1 bmT`
șMb2HQ` /2 bm++2bX S2Mi`m p2/2 +2 b2 ŗMiKTH +m `TQ`imH /2 șMb2
/+ x +`2și2 +m Q mMBii2 Ux /2pBM2 x + 1V- b2 TQ`M2Ȕi2 /2 H 2+mȧB /2
`2;`2bB2 HQ;BbiB+ bBKTH,
Ω( x) = e β0 + β1 x = e β0 × e β1 x UR9X3V
Ω ( x ) = e β 0 + β 1 ( x +1) = e β 0 × e β 1 x × e β 1 UR9XNV
Ω ( x +1) e β 0 + β 1 ( x +1) e β0 × e β1 x × e β1
OR = = x
= x
= e β1 UR9XRyV
Ω( x) e β 0 + β 1 e ×e
β 0 β 1
e5.495958−0.004889× x
p( x ) = UR9XRRV
1 + e5.495958−0.004889× x
lM/2,
Ç Q#b 4 Q#b2`pȧB
Ç v 4 +mKT`fMm +mKT`
Ç t 4 biimimH Q+mTȧBQMH
*HH,
;HKU7Q`KmH 4 v t- 7KBHv 4 #BMQKBHV
.2pBM+2 _2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@kXyd3kR @yXyyyy3 yX9N8R3 yX9N8R3 yX9N8R3
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` x pHm2 S`U=%x%V
UAMi2`+2TiV @RNX8d j839Xed @yXyy8 yXNNe
t kRXey j839Xed yXyye yXNN8
e5.495958−0.004889×100
p( x ) = = 0.993354 UR9XRjV
1 + e5.495958−0.004889×100
Hi72H bTmb- 2tBbi NN-jjW șMb2 + Q T2`bQM +m mM p2MBi /2 Ryy H2B b
#2M2}+B2x2 /2 DmiQ` }MM+B` /BM T`i2 biimHmBX
ŖM _- miBHBxM/ /i2H2 /BM 2t2KTHmH /2 KB bmb- b2 2biBK2x T`Q##BHBii2
+ mM BM/BpB/ b #2M2}+B2x2 /2 T`2biȧBB bQ+BH2 Uy = 1V /+ `2 mM p2MBi
/2 x = 100 H2BX
a2 /2}M2Ȕi2 mM MQm /i 7`K2- /2MmKBi M2r/iX
yXNNjj89
yXd9N8R3d
e−19,57+21,60
p( x ) = UR9XR9V
1 + e−19,57+21,60
= M2r/i I@ /iX7`K2Ut 4 RV
yX339eR89
BMi2`pH KmHi KB H`; (−∞, 0]X +2bi pHQ`2 TQ`i /2MmKB`2 /2
p2`QbBKBHBii2 HQ;`BiKB+ UGG @ GQ; GBF2HB?QQ/VX JB KmHi- T2Mi`m +
p2`QbBKBHBii2 b TQi } KB mșQ` BMi2`T`2ii- b@ bi#BHBi T`BM
+QMp2MȧB2 + GG b b2 ŗMKmHȧ2b+ +m @k- +m b+QTmH /2 } Q pHQ`2 KB
K`2 șB TQxBiBpX
ș/`- ŗM i2bi`2 KQ/2H2HQ` /2 `2;`2bB2 HQ;BbiB+ b2 miBHBx2x pHQ`2 @
kGG +m Q H`; THB+#BHBii2- }BM/ bBKBH` +m bmK Ti`i2HQ` 2`Q`BHQ` /BM
`2;`2bB HBMB`X @kGG b2 +QKT` T2Mi`m KB KmHi2 p`BMi2 /2 KQ/2H2
/2 `2;`2bB2X a2 bTmM2K + KQ/2HmH 2bi2 KB TQi`BpBi- +m +i pHQ`2 @kGG
2bi2 KB KB+ U+QM/BȧB /2 p2`QbBKBHBii2 KtBK BKTHB+ Q +QM/BȧB2 /2
KBMBK T2Mi`m pHQ`2 @kGGVX
JQ/2H2H2 /2 `2;`2bB2 TQi } +QMbi`mBi2 ŗM KB KmHi2 p`BMi2- T`BM
BMi`Q/m+2`2 ŗM KQ/2H- `M/ T2 `M/ p`B#BH2HQ` 2tTHB+iBp2X S`Q#H2K
/2 BMi2`2b 2bi2 /2 i2bi /+ BMi`Q/m+2`2 mM2B MQB p`B#BH2
BM/2T2M/2Mi2 ŗM KQ/2H K`2și2 bm Mm p2`QbBKBHBii2 KQ/2HmHmBX
ŖM +xmH `2;`2bB2B HQ;BbiB+2 bBKTH2- b2 +QKT` /Qm KQ/2H2, mM KQ/2H
`2bi`Mb +`2 Mm +QMȧBM2 p`B#BH BM/2T2M/2Mi U+QMȧBM2 MmKB i2`K2MmH
HB#2` β 0 - BMi2`+2Ti QMHv Ĝ /2MmKB`2 KQ/2HmHmB ŗM HBK# 2M;H2xV ȔB mM
KQ/2H 2tiBMb +`2 +QMȧBM2 p`B#BH BM/2T2M/2Mi UŗM HBK# 2M;H2x
BMi2`+2Ti M/ +Qp`Bi2bVX .B72`2Mȧ ŗMi`2 pHQ`BH2 @kGG +Q`2bTmMxiQ`2
+2HQ` /Qm KQ/2H2 `i /+ p2`QbBKBHBii2 KQ/2HmHmB- ŗM MbK#Hm-
+`2și2 bm b+/2 H BMi`Q/m+2`2 p`B#BH2B BM/2T2M/2Mi2 ŗM KQ/2HX
h2bi`2 b2 7+2 +m DmiQ`mH i2bimHmB χ2 UŗM HBK# 2M;H2x *?B@a[m`2V-
/2Q`2+2 /B72`2Mȧ ŗMi`2 pHQ`BH2 −2LL 9 - +H+mHi T2Mi`m Q`B+`2 /Qm
+i2 /Qm KQ/2H2 TQbB#BH2- 2bi2 Q p`B#BH H2iQ`2 +`2 m`K2x Q
/Bbi`B#mȧB2 χ2 X h2bimH χ2 TQ`i șB /2MmKB`2 /2 i2bimH qH/ bm i2bimH
`TQ`imHmB /2 p2`QbBKBHBiȧB UGBF2HB?QQ/ _iBQ h2biV,
. /
LL0
2
χ = −2LL0 − (−2LL M ) = −2ln UR9XR8V
LL M
mM/2,
−2LL0 `2T`2xBMi p2`QbBKBHBii2 HQ;`BiKB+ KQ/2HmHmB +`2 Mm +QMȧBM2
p`B#BH BM/2T2M/2Mic +2bi 2bi2 /2MmKBi șB p2`QbBKBHBii2 BMBȧBH-
B` KQ/2HmH /2 `2;`2bB2 2bi2 +QMbB/2`i mM KQ/2H `2bi`Mb- miBHBxi + #x
/2 +QKT`ȧB2 T2Mi`m Hi2 KQ/2H2 TQbB#BH2 +`2 +QMȧBM mM bm KB KmHi2
p`B#BH2 BM/2T2M/2Mi2c
−2LL M `2T`2xBMi p2`QbBKBHBii2 HQ;`BiKB+ KQ/2HmHmB +`2 +QMȧBM2
p`B#BH BM/2T2M/2Mi- UKQ/2HmH 2tiBMbVX
9 /B72`2Mȧ ŗMi`2 pHQ`BH2 −2LL TQi2 } T`BpBi + Q #i2`2 +`2- + șB ŗM +xmH bmK2B
1bi2 BKTQ`iMi /2 T`2+Bxi + +2H KB #mM KQ/2H /2 `2;`2bB2 Mm 2bi2 +2H
+`2 2tTHB+ iQimH- +B +2H +`2 `2 +2 KB K`2 Tmi2`2 /2 2tTHB+ȧB2 +m
+2H KB KB+ MmK` /2 p`B#BH2 BM/2T2M/2Mi2X A/2H ` } b b2 ;b2b+
mM MmK` KB+ /2 p`B#BH2 BM/2T2M/2Mi2 +`2 b }2 Tmi2`MB+ +Q`2Hi2 +m
p`B#BH /2T2M/2Mi- B` 2tTHB+ȧB p`BȧB2B b }2 7+mi /Q` T2 #x
+2biQ`- +?B` /+ KB `KM2 Q +MiBii2 UT`272`#BH KB+V /2 2`Q`2X
ŖM +xmH `2;`2bB2B HBMB`2- mM KQ/2H /2+pi 2bi2 +2H ŗM +`2 bmK 2`Q`BHQ`
+mKmHi2 2bi2 +i KB T`QT2 /2 bmK 2`Q`BHQ` 2tTHB+i2 /2 `2;`2bB2- bi72H
ŗM+i bmK pHQ`BHQ` `2xB/mH28 2bi2 +i KB KB+ (SST = SSR + SSE)X
o2`QbBKBHBii2 HQ;`BiKB+ −2LL0 TQi2 } T`BpBi bBKBH` +m p`BȧB
iQiH /BM i2bimH LPo- ŗM +xmH `2;`2bB2B HBMB`2 Uaahe Ĝ amK Q7
a[m`2b hQiHV- B` −2LL M 2bi2 bBKBH` +m p`BȧB 2tTHB+i /2 KQ/2HmH
`2;`2bB2 Uaa_d Ĝ amK Q7 a[m`2b _2;`2bbBQMVX
1t2KTHm, ŖM +QMiBMm`2- b2 2pHm2x KQ/2HmH /2 `2;`2bB2 HQ;BbiB+ T2Mi`m
2t2KTHmH ŗM +`2 p`B#BH /2T2M/2Mi UvV `2T`2xBMi T`i2M2MȧfMQM@
T`i2M2Mȧ mMmB BM/BpB/ H +i2;Q`B #2M2}+B`B /2 T`2biȧBB bQ+BH2- B`
t 2bi2 p`B#BH MmK2`B+- `2T`2x2MiM/ p2MBimH K2/Bm HmM` BM/BpB/mH-
2tT`BKi ŗM mMBiȧB KQM2i`2,
. /
p
ln = 5.495958 − 0.004889 × venitulnmediunlunar UR9XReV
1− p
*HH,
= ;HKU7Q`KmH 4 v t- 7KBHv 4 ]#BMQKBH]- /i 4 /i2nHQ;BiV
.2pBM+2 _2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@jXyk8d @yXR9k9 yXR93d yXj98k yXNRN3
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` x pHm2 S`U=%x%V
UAMi2`+2TiV 8X9N8N83 RXd3k88R jXy3j yXyyky8
t @yXyy933N yXyyRe39 @kXNyj yXyyjdy
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
_2bTQMb2, v
ŖM +QM/BȧBBH2 ŗM +`2 T`Q##BHBii2 2bi2 KB KB+ /2+i +2 T2Mi`m +`2
KQ/2HmH 2tiBMb b2 ++2Ti +m ŗM+`2/2`2 /2 N8W
UPr (> Chi ) = 6.453e − 08 < 0.05V- b2 TQi2 }`K + i2bimH χ2 +QM}`K
7TimH + p2MBimH K2/Bm HmM` BM~m2Mȧ2x b2KMB}+iBp șMb2H2 + Q
R9Xk _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ bBKTH R8j
2 32/n
−2LL0
2
R = 1− UR9XRdV
−2LL M
4 52/n
−2LL0
1− −2LL M
R2 = UR9XR3V
1 − (2LL0 )2/n
e β0 + β1 x1 +...+ β k xk
p= UR9XkeV
1 + e β0 + β1 x1 +...+ β k xk
Ω ( x j +1) e β 0 + β j ( x j +1) e β0 × e β j x j × e β j
OR = = β0 + β j x j
= β j xj
= eβj UR9XkdV
Ω( x j ) e e ×e
β 0
*HH,
;HKU7Q`KmH 4 v tR Y tk- 7KBHv 4 #BMQKBHV
.2pBM+2 _2bB/mHb,
JBM RZ J2/BM jZ Jt
@RX39Re @yXRkd3 yXRNeR yXRNeR jXRykk
R9Xj _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBTH R8d
*Q277B+B2Mib,
1biBKi2 ai/X 1``Q` x pHm2 S`U=%x%V
UAMi2`+2TiV @eXkyk kXk8R @kXd88 yXyy83d
tR @kX99N RXRkj @kXR3R yXykNRe
tk eXkNd RXjky 9Xddy RX392@ye
@@@
aB;MB7X +Q/2b, y ǭ Ǯ yXyyR ǭ Ǯ yXyR ǭ Ǯ yXy8 ǭXǮ yXR ǭ Ǯ R
.+ iQi2 +2H2 Ryy T2`bQM2 ` p2 +2HșB MBp2H /2 2/m+ȧB2 șB +22șB
p2+?BK2 ŗM KmM+ Ux1 4 +QMbiXV ȔB Ux2 4 +QMbiXV- +2bi2 ` p2 șMb2
2;H2 /2 } b2H2+ii2 T2Mi`m } M;Di2X +2bi ` } bBimȧB ŗM +`2
Q`B+2 pHQ`2 ` p2 p`B#BH2H2 BM/2T2M/2Mi2- +2bi Mm T`Q/m+2 MB+B mM
272+i bmT` șMb2HQ` /2 bm++2b Ue β J = 1- /+ β j = 0VX
R83 _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+
⎧
⎪
⎪ categoria − 1
⎪
⎪
⎨ categoria − 2
Yi = categoria − 3 UR9XkNV
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ ...
⎩
categoria − J
⎧
⎪
⎪ pi1
⎪
⎪ pi2
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎨ pi3
pi = ... UR9XjyV
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ pij
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ ...
⎩
piJ
j = 1, 2, ..., J
.+ J > 2- pQ` } J − 1 2+mȧBB /2 `2;`2bB2 HQ;BbiB+- +i2;Q`B J }BM/
+QMbB/2`i +i2;Q`B2 /2 `272`BMȧ,
. /
pi1
ln = β 10 + β 11 × xi1 + β 12 × xi2 + ... + β 1k × xik = β′1 × xi
1 − piJ
UR9XjRV
. /
pi2
ln = β 20 + β 21 × xi1 + β 22 × xi2 + ... + β 2k × xik = β′2 × xi
1 − piJ
UR9XjkV
R9X9 _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBMQKBH R8N
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
. /
pij
ln = β j0 + β j1 × xi1 + β j2 × xi2 + ... + β jk × xik = β′j × xi
1 − piJ
UR9XjjV
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
. /
piJ
ln = β J0 + β J1 × xi1 + β J2 × xi2 + ... + β Jk × xik = β′J × xi
1 − piJ
UR9Xj9V
6B2+`2 /BMi`2 +2bi2 2+mȧBB bmMi +`+i2`Bxi2 /2 T`QT`BBH2 pHQ`B H2
T`K2i`BHQ` /2 `2;`2bB2 β j X ŖM ;2M2`H- Tmi2K +QMbB/2` Q bBM;m`
2+mȧB2 /2 `2;`2bB2- +Q`2bTmMxiQ`2 Q#b2`pȧB2B i șB +i2;Q`B2B /2 `bTmMb
j,
. /
pij
ln = β j0 + β j1 × xi1 + β j2 × xi2 + ... + β jk × xik = β′j × xi
1 − piJ
UR9Xj8V
JQ/2HmH TQi2 } b+`Bb bm# 7Q`K șMb2B /2 bm++2b,
pij
Ω= = e β j0 + β j1 ×xi1 + β j2 ×xi2 +...+ β jk ×xik UR9XjeV
1 − pij
. /
pi1
ln = β 10 + β 11 × xi1 + β 12 × xi2 + ... + β 1k × xik = β′1 × xi
1 − pi1
UR9XjdV
S`Q##BHBii2 + Q#b2`pȧB i b ŗM`2;Bbi`2x2 T`BK /BM +2H2 /Qm +i2;Q`BB
/2 `bTmMb- 2p2MBK2MimH }BM/ +QMbB/2`i mM bm++2b- 2bi2,
′
e β10 + β11 × xi1 + β12 × xi2 +...+ β1k × xik e β 1 × xi
pi1 = x x ... x
= ′ UR9Xj3V
1 + e 10 11 i1 12 i2
β + β × + β × + + β 1k × ik 1 + e β 1 × xi
Rey _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+
pi1
UR9X9yV
′
Ω= = e β10 + β11 ×xi1 + β12 ×xi2 +...+ β1k ×xik = e β1 × xi
1 − pi1
p
Ω= = e β 0 + β 1 × xi UR9X9RV
1− p
*xmH kX J > 2
_2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBMQKBH
′
e β J × xi
pij = J −1
UR9X9kV
β′j × xi
1+ ∑ e
j =1
+M/ j < JX
S`Q##BHBii2 /2 2ș2+- +Q`2bTmMxiQ`2 Q#b2`pȧB2B i șB +i2;Q`B2B /2
`bTmMb j = J,
1
piJ = J −1
UR9X9jV
β′j × xi
1+ ∑ e
j =1
+M/ j = JX
ș/`- b2 +QKT` șMb2H2 +i2;Q`B2B j b ŗM`2;Bbi`2x2 mM bm++2b- 7ȧ /2
+i2;Q`B J- T2Mi`m mM b2i /2 pHQ`B H2 p`B#BH2HQ` BM/2T2M/2Mi2
Uxi1 , ..., xik VX S2Mi`m BMi2`T`2i `2xmHii2H2 KQ/2HmHmB /2 `2;`2bB2
HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBMQKBH- b2 /2i2`KBM `TQ`imH /2 șMb2X +2bi +QKT`
șMb2H2 /Qm ;`mTm`B /2 TQTmHȧB2 +`+i2`Bxi2 /2 pHQ`B /B72`Bi2
R9X9 _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBMQKBH ReR
Ç ;`mT /2 p`bi
Ç b2tmH
Ç MȧBQMHBii2
Ç MBp2HmH /2 2/m+ȧB2
= iBHU.i2nKmHiBMQKV
.2b+`B2`2 p`B#BH2HQ`,
ahP*lS @ p`B#BH /2T2M/2Mi Uyk V @ biimimH Q+mTȧBQMH- +`2 `2
m`KiQ`2H2 +i2;Q`BB /2 `bTmMb, bH`BiRy - +bMB+- T2MbBQM`- 2H2p-
bim/2MiX
= H2p2HbU.i2nKmHiBMQK0ahP*lSV
(R) ]aH`Bi] ]*bMB+] ]1H2p] ]T2MbBQM`] ]aim/2Mi]
= H2p2HbU.i2nKmHiBMQK0;`pV
(R) ]Ik8] ]=e9] ]k8@j9] ]j8@99] ]98@89] ]88@e9]
= H2p2HbUbX7+iQ`U.i2nKmHiBMQK0a1sVV
(R) ]R] ]k]
= H2p2HbU.i2nKmHiBMQK0LhV
(R) ]:2`KM] ]J;?B`] ]_QKM] ]_QK]
= H2p2HbU.i2nKmHiBMQK0LAo1V
(R) ]K2/Bm] ]b+xmi] ]bmT2`BQ`]
= bmKK`vU_2;`2bBnKmHiBMQKV
*HH,
KmHiBMQKU7Q`KmH 4 ahP*lS Lh Y LAo1- /i 4 .i2nKmHiBMQKV
*Q277B+B2Mib,
UAMi2`+2TiV LhJ;?B` Lh_QKM Lh_QK
*bMB+ @3Xd9Nyje 3X3ey939 3X98jj9e RyXjdj8Rd
1H2p eXRy3Nkj @dXN9Nj3R @dXd93djd @dXd38edd
T2MbBQM` RRX3jdjj3 @dXNRkye3 @3XyRNk8k @NX8e3NR8
aim/2Mi NXNjyjRd @NXjkdedk @NX889R33 @RNXRNdj98
LAo1b+xmi LAo1bmT2`BQ`
*bMB+ yXeej9dj8 @kXNRdee38
RR *`2i T2Mi`m `2xQHp`2 KQ/2H2HQ` /2 `2;`2bB2 KmHiBMQKBH
Re9 _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+
ai/X 1``Q`b,
UAMi2`+2TiV LhJ;?B` Lh_QKM Lh_QK
*bMB+ yXRd3jR38 yXk88ej9e yXR8d3ej9 jXeN9Rd32@yR
1H2p yXjeyjR99 yXjk3jk3R yXk3d8Rdy 9Xejd8yN2@yR
T2MbBQM` yXkeyRjjN yXkN39NN9 yXk8ey9jk 9X9dk9392@yR
aim/2Mi yX8dkjj3y yXej38e8N yX8d83yNy kXydNd3e2@y8
LAo1b+xmi LAo1bmT2`BQ`
*bMB+ RXNjk89d2@yR RXykN93j2Yyy
1H2p kXdk89j92@yR eXRN3je82@yN
T2MbBQM` RXjd9N9k2@yR kXjRk9k82@yR
aim/2Mi RXy9jeR92@y8 9XRjy3yd2@yR
. /
pcasnica
ln = β casnica0 + β casnicaN ATMaghiar × x N ATMaghiar +
1 − psalariat
+ β casnicaN ATRoman × x N ATRoman + β casnicaN ATRom × x N ATRom +
+ β casnicaN IVEscazut × x N IVEscazut + β casnicaN IVEsuperior × x N IVEsuperior
. /
pelev
ln = β elev0 + β elevN ATMaghiar × x N ATMaghiar +
1 − psalariat
+ β elevN ATRoman × x N ATRoman + β elevN ATRom × x N ATTRom +
+ β elevN IVEscazut × x N IVEscazut + β elevN IVEsuperior × x N IVEsuperior
R9X9 _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBMQKBH Re8
. /
p pensionar
ln = β pensionar0 + β pensionarN ATMaghiar × x N ATMaghiar +
1 − psalariat
+ β pensionarN ATRoman × x N ATRoman + β pensionarN ATRom × x N ATRom +
+ β pensionarN IVEscazut × x N IVEscazut + β pensionarN IVEsuperior × x N IVEsuperior
. /
pstudent
ln = β student0 + β studentN ATMaghiar × x N ATMaghiar +
1 − psalariat
+ β studentN ATRoman × x N ATRoman + β studentN ATRom × x N ATRom +
+ β studentN IVEscazut × x N IVEscazut + β studentN IVEsuperior × x N IVEsuperior
= TT I@ 7Bii2/U_2;`2bBnKmHiBMQKV
= ?2/UTTV
= +HbbU.i2nKmHiBMQK0LAo1V I@ ]MmK2`B+]
= /iLh I@ /iX7`K2ULh 4 +U]_QKM]- ]J;?B`]- ]_QK]-
]:2`KM]V- LAo1 4 K2MU.i2nKmHiBMQK0LAo1VV
= ?2/U/iLhV
Lh LAo1
R _QKM RX3Ne3e9
k J;?B` RX3Ne3e9
j _QK RX3Ne3e9
9 :2`KM RX3Ne3e9
= ?2/UTTXLAo1V
Lh LAo1 aH`Bi *bMB+ 1H2p
R _QKM R yXyR8dey9R3 yXyR8djkR3j yXRkR9jy3N
k _QKM k yXyyej9RRyj yXyyee9NN8y yXk9NRk3NR
j _QKM j yXyykRekyNk yXyykj3kRyy yX9jjR9jyy
9 J;?B` R yXyRj333j38 yXykReNk9kd yXyN938k9e
R9X9 _2;`2bB HQ;BbiB+ KmHiBMQKBH Red
TTXLAo10Lh, :2`KM
aH`Bi *bMB+ 1H2p
kXNjdejd2@yd kXy9N8RN2@RR kXjkNdkN2@yR
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
TTXLAo10Lh, J;?B`
aH`Bi *bMB+ 1H2p
yXyydk8yje9 yXyRR83338e yXkkR8y9jNk
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
TTXLAo10Lh, _QKM
aH`Bi *bMB+ 1H2p
yXyy3y3d3dR yXyy3k89d98 yXkedNyyNjj
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
TTXLAo10Lh, _QK
aH`Bi *bMB+ 1H2p
yXyR9yNekN yXRk3d9yRy yX8ey8d8Re
*TBiQHmH R8
"x2 /2 /i2
_ aZGf_."Jaf1t+2H
/i 7`K2 i#H2
Q#b2`pȧB2 UŗM 2M;H2x Q#b2`piBQMV `M/ UŗM 2M;H2x `QrV
p`B#BH UŗM 2M;H2x p`B#H2V +QHQM UŗM 2M;H2x +QHmKMV
6mM+ȧB 6Q`Ki
`2/X/#7UV ."6
`2/XbTbbUV aSaa
`2/X/iUV aii
`2/Xbb/UV aa
`2/XQ+ip2UV P+ip2
`2/XKiTUV JBMBi#
`2/XbvbiiUV avbii
R8XkXR C."*
= HB#``vU_C."*V
= /`p I@ C."*U]+QKXKvb[HXD/#+X.`Bp2`]-
]fTi?fKvb[H@+QMM2+iQ`@Dp@8XRXj9XD`]- B/2MiB7B2`X[mQi24]<]V
= +QMR I@ /#*QMM2+iU/`p- ]D/#+,Kvb[H,ffHQ+H?Qbifi2bi]-
]mb2`]- ]Tr/]V
= /#q`Bi2h#H2U+QMR- ]h1ahnh"G1]- i2bini#H2V
= /#:2iZm2`vU+QMR- ]b2H2+i +QmMiU V 7`QK h1ahnh"G1]V
= Kvh#H2 I@ /#_2/h#H2U+QMR- ]h1ahnh"G1]V
= /#.Bb+QMM2+iU+QMRV
R8XkXk JvaZG
= HB#``vU_P."*V
= Kvb[H I@ Q/#+*QMM2+iU]i2binJvaZG]V
= Ui#H2b I@ b[Hh#H2bUKvb[HVV
h"G1n*h h"G1na*>1J h"G1nLJ1 h"G1nhuS1 _1J_Ea
R rQ`H/ +Biv h"G1
k rQ`H/ +QmMi`v h"G1
j rQ`H/ +QmMi`vHM;m;2 h"G1
= BMbiHHXT+F;2bU]_JvaZG]V
= HB#``vU_JvaZGV
= Kv/# I@ /#*QMM2+iUJvaZGUV- mb2` 4 ^`QQi^- TbbrQ`/ 4 ^/KBM^-
/#MK2 4 ^+Biv^- ?Qbi 4 ^HQ+H?Qbi^V
= Ui#H2b I@ /#GBbih#H2bUKv/#VV
= UKv7B2H/b I@ /#GBbi6B2H/bUKv/#- ^+Biv^VV
= Kv+Biv I@ /#a2M/Zm2`vUKv/#- ^b2H2+i 7`QK +Biv^V
= ?2/UKv+BivV
R8XkXj P."*
= BMbiHHXT+F;2bU]_P."*]V
= HB#``vU_P."*V
S`BM bBbi2KmH P."* b2 TQi `2HBx H2;im`B H #x2 /2 /i2 /2 iBT JB+`QbQ7i
++2bb U XK/#V- /"b2 6BH2b U X/#7V șB JB+`QbQ7i 1t+2H U XtHbVX
ŖM 2t2KTH2H2 /2 KB DQb bmMi /2b+`Bb2 +i2p 7mM+ȧBB /2 #x T2Mi`m
KMBTmH`2 /i2HQ`,
= /bMXMK2 I@ ]/bMnMK2]
= mb2`XMK2 I@ ];m2bi]
Rd9 "x2 /2 /i2
= Tr/y I@ ]Rkj9]
= +QMR I@ Q/#+*QMM2+iU/bM4/bMXMK2- mB/4mb2`XMK2- Tr/ 4 Tr/yV
= Q/#+*HQb2U+QMRV
= Q/#+*HQb2HHUV
= i#H2XMK2 I@ ]AM+QK2b]
= +QHXHBbi I@ b[H*QHmKMbU+QMR- i#H2XMK2V
R8XkX9 P`+H2
= HB#``vU_P`+H2V
= /`p I@ /#.`Bp2`U]P`+H2]V
= +QMR I@ /#*QMM2+iU/`p- ]mb2`]- ]Tr/]V
*BiB`2 /i2HQ` /BMi`@Q #x /2 /i2 bm /Q` /BMi`@mM }șB2` `2T`2xBMi
/Q` T`BKmH Tb ŗM T`2;iB`2 /i2HQ` T2Mi`m MHBxX lM Hi 2iT
7Q`i2 BKTQ`iMi 2bi2 T`2Hm+``2 /i2HQ` ŗM p2/2`2 `2HBx`BB
MHBx2HQ`X S`+iB+- ŗM +2bi 7x- b2 `2HBx2x 2tTHQ``2- b2H2+ȧB șB
+Q`2+i`2 p`B#BH2HQ`X ŖM Kbm` ŗM +`2 2bi2 M2pQB2 b2 pQ` +`2
p`B#BH2 MQB +`2 pQ` p2 + #x /2 TH2+`2 mM bm KB KmHi2
p`B#BH2 2tBbi2Mi2 ŗM #x /2 /i2X
R8XjXR a2H2+ȧBB
= /BKUB`[mHBivV
(R) R8j e
= H2p2HbUbX7+iQ`UB`[mHBiv0JQMi?VV
(R) ]8] ]e] ]d] ]3] ]N]
*QHQM2fo`B#BH2
a2H2+i`2 /Q` p`B#BH2HQ`f+QHQM2HQ` /2 BMi2`2b b2 TQi2 `2HBx iQi
T`BM BMbi`m+ȧBmM2 bm#b2iUV- /` +m `;mK2MimH b2H2+i- bi72H,
= HHX2[mHUb2H2+iB2R- b2H2+iB2kV
(R) h_l1
= b2H2+iB2 I@ B`[mHBiv(B`[mHBiv0JQMi? 44 e- )
= /BKUb2H2+iB2V
(R) jy e
= ?2/Ub2H2+iB2- jV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
jk L k3e 3Xe d3 e R
jj L k3d NXd d9 e k
j9 L k9k ReXR ed e j
R8Xj 6mM+ȧBB /2 KMBTmH`2 /i2HQ` RdN
R8XjXk aQ`i`B
= /iU]B`[mHBiv]- T+F;24]/ib2ib]V
= ?2/UB`[mHBivV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
R 9R RNy dX9 ed 8 R
k je RR3 3Xy dk 8 k
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 8 j
9 R3 jRj RRX8 ek 8 9
8 L L R9Xj 8e 8 8
e k3 L R9XN ee 8 e
= ?2/UB`[mHBiv0h2KTV
(R) ed dk d9 ek 8e ee
R3y "x2 /2 /i2
= bQ`iU?2/UB`[mHBiv0h2KTVV
(R) 8e ek ee ed dk d9
= Q`/2`U?2/UB`[mHBiv0h2KTVV
(R) 8 9 e R k j
= B`[mHBiv I@ B`[mHBiv(Q`/2`UB`[mHBiv0h2KTV- )
= ?2/UB`[mHBivV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
8 L L R9Xj 8e 8 8
R3 e d3 R3X9 8d 8 R3
k8 L ee ReXe 8d 8 k8
kd L L 3Xy 8d 8 kd
R8 R3 e8 RjXk 83 8 R8
ke L kee R9XN 83 8 ke
= B`[mHBiv I@ B`[mHBiv(Q`/2`UB`[mHBiv0h2KT-
/2+`2bBM; 4 h_l1V- )
= ?2/UB`[mHBivV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
Rky de kyj NXd Nd 3 k3
Rkk 39 kjd eXj Ne 3 jy
Rkj 38 R33 eXj N9 3 jR
RkR RR3 kk8 kXj N9 3 kN
Rke dj R3j kX3 Nj N j
Rkd NR R3N 9Xe Nj N 9
R8Xj 6mM+ȧBB /2 KMBTmH`2 /i2HQ` R3R
= B`[mHBiv I@ B`[mHBiv(Q`/2`UB`[mHBiv0PxQM2-
MXHbi 4 h_l1V- )
= ?2/UB`[mHBivV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
kR R 3 NXd 8N 8 kR
kj 9 k8 NXd eR 8 kj
R3 e d3 R3X9 8d 8 R3
R9d d 9N RyXj eN N k9
RR d L eXN d9 8 RR
de d 93 R9Xj 3y d R8
= /BKUB`[mHBivV
(R) R8j e
= B`[mHBiv I@ B`[mHBiv(Q`/2`UB`[mHBiv0PxQM2-
MXHbi 4 LV- )
= ?2/UB`[mHBivV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
kR R 3 NXd 8N 8 kR
kj 9 k8 NXd eR 8 kj
R3 e d3 R3X9 8d 8 R3
de d 93 R9Xj 3y d R8
RR d L eXN d9 8 RR
R9d d 9N RyXj eN N k9
= /BKUB`[mHBivV
(R) RRe e
R8XjXj *QM+i2M`B
]obBH2]- ]J`B]VVV
A. LmK2
R R AQM
k k S2i`2
j j obBH2
9 k J`B
= U/7k I@ /iX7`K2UA. 4 +UR,j-jV- aH`Bm 4 +UR9yy- R3yy-
R8yy- kyyyVVV
A. aH`Bm
R R R9yy
k k R3yy
j j R8yy
9 j kyyy
= U/7j I@ K2`;2U/7R- /7k- #v 4 ]A.]VV
A. LmK2 aH`Bm
R R AQM R9yy
k k S2i`2 R3yy
j k J`B R3yy
9 j obBH2 R8yy
8 j obBH2 kyyy
= b2iXb22/U8yV
= tR I@ bKTH2UR,Ryy- `2TH+2 4 h_l1V
= /mTHB+i2y I@ tR(/mTHB+i2/UtRV)
R39 "x2 /2 /i2
= H2M;i?U/mTHB+i2yV
(R) jN
= 7`/mTHB+i2y I@ tR(5/mTHB+i2/UtRV)
= H2M;i?U7`/mTHB+i2yV
(R) eR
= mMB+2y I@ mMB[m2UtRV
= H2M;i?UmMB+2yV
(R) eR
= HHX2[mHU7`/mTHB+i2- mMB+2yV
(R) h_l1
ai#BHB`2 MBp2H2HQ`
LBp2H2H2 bmMi bT2+B}+2 p`B#BH2HQ` /2 iBT 7+iQ`- B` T2Mi`m 2t2KTHB}+`2
b2 p miBHBx iQi b2imH /2 /i2 +m +`2 b@ Hm+`iX
= +HbbUB`[mHBiv0JQMi?V
(R) ]BMi2;2`]
= B`[mHBiv0JQMi? I@ bX7+iQ`UB`[mHBiv0JQMi?V
R8Xj 6mM+ȧBB /2 KMBTmH`2 /i2HQ` R38
= H2p2HbUB`[mHBiv0JQMi?V
(R) ]8] ]e] ]d] ]3] ]N]
= H2p2HbUB`[mHBiv0JQMi?V
(R) ]JB] ]AmM] ]AmH] ]m;] ]a2T]
= ?2/UB`[mHBiv- jV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
R 9R RNy dX9 ed JB R
k je RR3 3Xy dk JB k
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 JB j
= iBHUB`[mHBivV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
R8R R9 RNR R9Xj d8 a2T k3
R8k R3 RjR 3Xy de a2T kN
R8j ky kkj RRX8 e3 a2T jy
= i#H2UB`[mHBiv0JQMi?V
JB AmM AmH m; a2T
jR jy jR jR jy
a2 Q#b2`p + /mT 2t2+mȧB +2bi2B 7mM+ȧBB T`BKmH MBp2H }și 2bi2 AmM,
= H2p2HbUB`[mHBiv0JQMi?V
(R) ]AmM] ]JB] ]AmH] ]m;] ]a2T]
= ?2/UB`[mHBivV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
R 9R RNy dX9 ed JB R
k je RR3 3Xy dk JB k
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 JB j
9 R3 jRj RRX8 ek JB 9
8 L L R9Xj 8e JB 8
e k3 L R9XN ee JB e
= /iU]B`[mHBiv]- T+F;24]/ib2ib]V
= ?2/UB`[mHBiv- jV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
R 9R RNy dX9 ed 8 R
k je RR3 3Xy dk 8 k
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 8 j
R8X9 S`2Hm+``2 i#2H2HQ` R3d
= +HbbUB`[mHBiv0h2KTV
(R) ]BMi2;2`]
= B`[mHBiv0h2KT* I@ `QmM/UUB`[mHBiv0h2KT @ jkV f RX3- kV
= ?2/UB`[mHBiv- jV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v h2KT*
R 9R RNy dX9 ed 8 R RNX99
k je RR3 3Xy dk 8 k kkXkk
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 8 j kjXjj
= B`[mHBiv I@ i`Mb7Q`KUB`[mHBiv-
h2KT* 4 `QmM/UUh2KT @ jkV f RX3- kVV
= ?2/UB`[mHBiv- jV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v h2KT*
R 9R RNy dX9 ed 8 R RNX99
k je RR3 3Xy dk 8 k kkXkk
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 8 j kjXjj
= B`[mHBiv0h2KT* I@ LlGG
= ?2/UB`[mHBiv- jV
PxQM2 aQH`X_ qBM/ h2KT JQMi? .v
R 9R RNy dX9 ed 8 R
k je RR3 3Xy dk 8 k
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 8 j
_2/2MmKB`2 p`B#BH2HQ`
1tBbi KB KmHi2 K2iQ/2 T2Mi`m `2/2MmKB`2 p`B#BH2HQ` mMmB b2i /2
/i2X ŖM T`BKmH `M/- T2Mi`m b+?BK#`2 imim`Q` /2MmKB`BHQ` b2 TQi2
7QHQbB 7mM+ȧB MK2bUVX
= MK2bUB`[mHBivV
(R) ]PxQM2] ]aQH`X_] ]qBM/] ]h2KT] ]JQMi?] ].v]
= MK2bUB`[mHBivV I@ +U]PxQM]- ]aQH`]- ]oMi]- ]h2KT2`im`]-
]GmM]- ]wBm]V
= MK2bUB`[mHBivV
(R) ]PxQM] ]aQH`] ]oMi] ]h2KT2`im`] ]GmM] ]wBm]
R33 "x2 /2 /i2
= MK2bUB`[mHBivV(j) I@ ]qBM/]
= ?2/UB`[mHBiv- jV
PxQM aQH` qBM/ h2KT2`im` GmM wBm
R 9R RNy dX9 ed 8 R
k je RR3 3Xy dk 8 k
j Rk R9N RkXe d9 8 j
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