1st International WDSA / CCWI 2018 Joint Conference, Kingston, Ontario, Canada – July 23-25, 2018

HISTORY OF WATER QUALITY MODELING IN

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
Walter M. Grayman1
1
W.M. Grayman Consulting Engineer, 7141 Thornhill Drive, Oakland CA 94611
1
wgrayman@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
This paper traces the development of water quality modeling in distribution systems from its early
roots to the present day. In the 1980s, steady state and dynamic models of water quality in distribution
systems were developed. The 1990s saw the development of EPANET as a research tool and the basis
for most of the commercial models in use today. Other developments included modeling chlorine and
trihalomethanes in the distribution system, modeling water quality in tanks, and design of chlorine
booster systems. Water quality models were used in hindcasting to assess water quality contamination
events in distribution systems and in legal cases resulting from groundwater contamination. In the
21st century, water security became a major driver in much of the research related to water quality
modeling in distribution systems. The development of EPANET-MSX facilitated modeling of multiple
interacting species. Real-time water quality modeling looms as an important direction for future
water quality modeling.
Keywords: water quality modeling, distribution systems, history

1 Introduction
At the 1st Water Distribution Systems Analysis (WDSA) conference in 2006, a session was organized
on the history of water distribution system analysis. I authored a paper in that session titled, “A
Quarter of a Century of Water Quality Modeling in Distribution Systems” (Grayman, 2006a). The
present paper can be viewed as an updated second edition of this original paper.
Hydraulic modeling of water distribution systems has had a long history dating back to the work of
Hardy Cross in the 1930’s and earlier researchers. On the other hand, formal work in water quality
modeling of distribution systems began only about 35 years ago. Prior to 1980 there were various
activities and events that set the stage for such modeling. These included water quality modeling in
streams and rivers; growing interest in environmental issues in the 1970’s; and the passage of the
Safe Drinking Water Act in 1974.

2 The 1980s
In 1980, Don Wood at the University of Kentucky published a paper on steady state modeling of
water quality in a slurry pipe system (Wood, 1980). The problem was formulated as a set of non-
linear simultaneous equations that were solved to determine both flow rates and solids concentrations.
This is the first example of water quality modeling in a pipe system.
Over the next five years, several modelers developed and applied steady-state techniques to analyze
water quality in drinking water distribution systems. Metzger (1985) developed an extension to a
hydraulic model to predict blending of water from two sources in a gridded water system. Chun and
Selznick (1985) developed a computer program called WADSY-Q to calculate water quality patterns
in a multi-source water distribution system using flows previously calculated by a hydraulic model
 1st International WDSA / CCWI 2018 Joint Conference, Kingston, Ontario, Canada – July 23-25, 2018

(WADSY). Males et al (1985) developed a general algorithm for solving mixing problems in water
distribution systems and used it to calculate concentrations, source tracing, travel times and allocating
water delivery costs to different parts of a distribution system. Shah and Sinai (1985) developed a
theoretical model of the solute-transport process and applied this to analyze rural multi-quality water
supply systems in Israel. Murphy (1985) developed a computer model to predict the spatial
distribution of chlorine concentration for steady state flow in a distribution system. Murphy (1986)
used a hydraulic model to calculate mixing within the Woburn, Massachusetts water distribution
system as part of study to determine what parts of the city received water from two contaminated
wells. The model was validated using a fluoride tracer test. In what may be described as one of those
coincidences in scientific development, it appears that these six studies were all conducted totally
independently.
The next step in water quality modeling of distribution systems was the development of time-varying
(dynamic) water quality models. In another case of parallel work, three papers were presented at the
1986 AWWA Distribution System Symposium that described dynamic water quality models (Clark
et al, 1986; Hart et al, 1986; and Liou and Kroon, 1986). Though all three papers reference some of
the earlier steady state models, the authors were unaware of the other research work that was
proceeding on time-varying modeling. Clark et al (1986) sub-divided pipes into grids such that water
flowed from one grid box to the next downstream grid box in each water quality time step. Grid sizes
were different in each pipe and were realigned when velocities or flow direction changed. Hart et al.
(1986) used a general event-based simulation language called GASP IV and defined and traced water
quality events including chlorine through the network. Liou and Kroon (1986) used a hydraulic
model LIQVARS to calculate flows in the network and once the flow direction was established for a
specific time period, sequenced the links from upstream to downstream and moved the liquid through
the link at a constant velocity. A first order decay function was applied to simulate chlorine decay.
During the latter part of the 1980’s, several research projects involved water quality simulation in
distribution systems. In two studies sponsored by USEPA, investigations were conducted at the North
Penn Water Authority in Lansdale, PA and the South Central Connecticut Regional Water Authority
in the New Haven, CT area. These water systems were modeled and analyzed using both steady state
and dynamic models. The results of these studies are reported in a series of papers (Grayman et al.
1988; Clark et al. 1988; Males et al., 1988). Some of the activities associated with these studies
included detailed tracer studies, water quality field studies using both manual grab samples and
continuous monitors, tank mixing assessments, integration of hydraulic models with AutoCAD,
graphical display of water quality information in a distribution system, travel time and water age
analysis and chlorine modeling. Simulation of chlorine decay in distribution systems was also the
subject of several other research studies in the United States and abroad (Characklis, 1988; Kroon
and Hunt, 1989; Itoh et al., 1990).
By the end of the decade, a commercial hydraulic/water quality model, Stoner Model (Stoner, 1988)
and a research oriented model, DWQM (Grayman et al, 1988) were available. USEPA’s Drinking
Water Research Division used models to address operational water quality problems such as loss of
chorine residual or blending of waters from different sources. Models had also been used in support
of legal cases involving the contamination of distribution systems.

3 Conference on Water Quality Modeling in Distribution Systems

In 1991, AwwaRF (now the Water Research Foundation) and EPA sponsored a technology transfer
conference in Cincinnati, Ohio that brought together experts from around the world that had been
involved in some manner in the area of water quality analysis and modeling in the distribution system
(AwwaRF/EPA, 1991). Table 1 contains a list of the papers (and authors) at the conference. In
 1st International WDSA / CCWI 2018 Joint Conference, Kingston, Ontario, Canada – July 23-25, 2018

addition to creating an environment that encouraged an open exchange of completed and ongoing
work, an important output from the conference was a detailed research agenda. The conference set
the stage and pointed the direction for the next 25 years

Table 1. Papers (and authors) presented at 1991 Water Quality Modeling Conference
Applications of Water Quality Models
Identification of supply source percentages and water age using KYPIPE & KYFSI (Ormsbee & Wood)
Investigating the outbreak in Cabool, Missouri for a water supply connection (Geldreich)
Applications of the NET software package (Hart)
Modeling chlorine concentration in network and applications to Paris distribution network (Wable)
Simulation of water quality in water distribution systems (Fowler)
Theoretical Aspects and Numerical Analysis
Graph-theoretic approaches to hydraulic network issues (Males)
Optimal operation of multi-quality distribution systems: Steady state conditions (Ostfeld)
Optimal scheduling of water supply: taking account of quality and transmission costs (Coulbeck)
Design of hydraulic and water quality model of a meshed distribution network (Colin & Grapin)
Further development of a dynamic calculation and simulation model for water distribution (Cohen)
Topics in modeling water quality in distribution systems (Shamir & Howard)
Calibration of Water Quality Models
Field sampling procedures for calibration of a water distribution system hydraulic model (Skov, Hess)
Modeling in the planning & evaluation of a field study of water quality in a distribution system (Goodrich)
Travel time calibrations in water distribution systems (Kennedy, Sarikelle & Suravallop)
Model calibration for chlorine residuals in distribution systems (Hunt & Kroon)
Water Utility Perspective
Water quality modeling: A practical tool for distribution system decision-making (Chun)
Investigation of a water quality complaint: Management concerns (Cesario)
A utility’s perspective on water quality modeling (Milan & Borchers)
Customer experience of taste & odor: A UK experience (Jones)
Water quality in the Madrid, Spain water utility (Cubillo)
Chemical/Physical/Biological Aspects
Understanding solids transport in water distribution systems (Walski)
In situ chlorine decay rate testing (Sharp)
Particle and chemical transport in drinking water systems (Biswas)
Microbial processes within the distribution system (LeChevallier)
Considerations and concerns in modeling corrosion by-product formation and transport (Schock)
Implications of Water Quality Modeling
Locating monitoring stations in distribution systems (Deininger)
Water quality modeling: Its regulatory implications (Clark)
The effects of operation, design & location of storage tanks on water quality in a distribution system (Grayman)
Prediction and validation in water distribution modeling (Murphy)

4 The 1990’s
Much of the research and development in distribution system water quality modeling during the
1990’s followed the directions set at the 1991 conference. Major areas of modeling are described
below.

4.1 Development of EPANET and Commercial Modeling Software

In 1991, Lewis Rossman started the development of EPANET and released the first version in 1993
(Rossman, 1993). Though there were commercial water quality models available at the time (e.g.,
Stoner Workstation Model, Piccolo), the importance of EPANET was its open source and public
domain status and its stated mission of supporting research in these areas. Additionally, EPA’s
“endorsement” of the model brought a level of credibility to the relatively new technology. It quickly
became the vehicle for a variety research studies around the world. EPANET also become the
 1st International WDSA / CCWI 2018 Joint Conference, Kingston, Ontario, Canada – July 23-25, 2018

hydraulic and water quality engine of choice for commercial models such as Cybernet/WaterCAD,
H2ONET and others that were introduced later in the decade. In related work, Rossman and Boulos
(1996) categorized and compared the various solution techniques that were available for water quality
modeling.

4.2 Modeling Disinfectants and Disinfection By-Products

Modeling disinfectants and (to a lesser degree) disinfection by-products (DBPs) were the
predominant water quality modeling activities in the 1990’s. Rossman et al. (1994) introduced a
mass-transfer-based model for predicting chlorine decay considering both bulk decay and wall
reaction. Vasconcelos et al (1996) studied chlorine kinetics and trihalomethane (THM) formation in
several distribution systems. This project also included laboratory studies on the influence of water
quality parameters and factors on chlorine kinetics performed at the University of Cincinnati and
Lyonnaise des Eaux in France. There were many other studies during this period on chlorine,
chloramine and DBP modeling including ones by Valentine et al. (1998) and Clark and Sivaganesan
(1998).

4.3 Water Quality Modeling in Tanks and Reservoirs

A series of water distribution system field studies sponsored by EPA identified the potential impacts
of storage tanks on water quality (Grayman et al., 1991). This led to several studies that examined the
issues of mixing and aging of water in storage tanks and the development of various models of these
phenomena (Grayman and Clark, 1993; Kennedy et al., 1993; Boulos et al., 1996; Grayman et al.,
1996). These models included both mathematical models and physical scale models. The
mathematical models ranged from highly conceptual models that treated storage facilities as complete
mix, plug flow or compartmentalized systems to detailed computational fluid dynamics (CFD)
models that used flow equations to simulate the mixing processes. Grayman et al. (2000) developed
and applied both types of models to several tanks and reservoirs.

4.4 Modeling Microbial Behavior

In 1989 the Total Coliform Rule (TCR) was promulgated with the goal of improving public health
protection by reducing fecal pathogens to minimal levels through the control of total coliform
bacteria, including fecal coliforms and Escherichiacoli (E. coli). This was one of several motivations
to develop mathematical models of the microbial processes in distribution systems. Various
mathematical and statistical models of bacterial growth, biofilms, and HPC/coliforms were developed
during the 1990’s including ones by LeChevallier et al. (1991), Volk and Joret (1994), Gatel et al.
(1995), Lu et al. (1995), Servais et al. (1995), and Gale et al. (1997). Though these models helped
advance the understanding of many of the underlying processes, successful applications of the models
to real world situations were limited, at best.

4.5 Modeling in Support of Historical Reconstructions

Starting in the 1980s and continuing until the present, water distribution system models have been
used in the historical reconstruction of contamination events in distribution systems as part of forensic
analysis and legal cases. In such studies, models are applied retrospectively and sometimes even
decades after the actual events to simulate the movement of contaminants through the distribution
system to determine potential customer exposures to the contaminant. Grayman et al (2004)
summarize the use of models in several high visibility cases including: a waterborne outbreak of
Salmonella in Gideon, MO in 1990; a 2000 E.coli outbreak in Walkerton, ON; a childhood cancer
cluster in Dover Township, NJ associated with contaminated groundwater; and a contaminated
groundwater case in Redlands, CA. Maslia et al (2016) describe detailed epidemiological studies that
 1st International WDSA / CCWI 2018 Joint Conference, Kingston, Ontario, Canada – July 23-25, 2018

employed water distribution system modeling to evaluate exposures to drinking water contaminated
with volatile organic compounds (VOC) at U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, NC.

5 The 21st Century

In addition to a continuation of the directions set in the 1990’s for water quality modeling, the 21 st
century has also seen some new areas of emphasis for application and research. These areas are
discussed below.

5.1 Water Security Issues

The events of September 11, 2001 had profound effects on research in many technological areas
including hydraulic and water quality modeling. The use of hydraulic and water quality modeling of
distribution systems is an important technology as a means of planning for, identifying and mitigating
the effects of an intentional or accidental contamination event on a water system. The following five
areas where hydraulic modeling have been used in this context (Grayman, 2006b).
 Planning and vulnerability assessment.
 Design of monitoring networks.
 Contamination source determination.
 Real-time assessment, emergency response and remediation.
 Historical reconstruction of waterborne outbreaks.
Over the period since 2001, there has been extensive research, development, and application of water
distribution system analysis related software to address the above issues. Optimal location of sensors
has been a popular research topic related to hydraulic modeling (Bahadur et al., 2003; Janke et al.,
2005; Ostfeld et al, 2006). EPA has been very active in this area and has developed modeling and
simulation software tools including TEVA-SPOT (Threat Ensemble Vulnerability Assessment-
Sensor Placement Optimization Tool), CANARY, EPANET-MSX (Multiple Species Extension),
WST (Water Security Toolkit), EPANET-RTX (Real-time extension), RTX-LINK, premise
plumbing algorithms, and WNTR (Water Network Tool for Resilience) to help the water industry be
prepared for and respond to hazards of all types (EPA, 2006b, Janke et al., 2016; Haxton et al., 2018).

5.2 Water Age Modeling

Though water age modeling in distribution systems dates back at least 20 years (Males et al., 1985),
there has been an expansion in modeling water age in recent years. A Water Research Foundation
sponsored project demonstrated that quality within distribution networks can be effectively managed
by controlling retention time and developed an interactive electronic guidance manual illustrating its
use (Brandt et al., 2006). An important component of this methodology was use of hydraulic/water
quality models of distribution systems and storage facilities. The Stage 2 Disinfectants and
Disinfection Byproducts (DBP) Rule (EPA, 2006b) requires most water utilities to perform an initial
distribution system evaluation (IDSE) to identify future DBP sampling locations. One option is the
use of hydraulic models to calculate water age and the selection of sampling sites that reflect a range
of water ages.

5.3 Real-time and operational modeling

Real-time operational modeling integrates models and supervisory control and data acquisition
(SCADA) data streams. It allows models to be used in real-time to assist in the operation of water
systems. Real-time modeling has evolved over the past quarter of a century into an increasingly used
productivity tool. Boulos, et al., (2014) describe a near real-time modeling application at the Las
 1st International WDSA / CCWI 2018 Joint Conference, Kingston, Ontario, Canada – July 23-25, 2018

Vegas Valley Water District that has been used on a daily basis for over a decade to assist in the
operation of their system. Uber et al., (2014) describe the application of the EPANET-RTX-based
real-time hydraulic and water quality software tool. Murray (2017) describes the application of
EPANET- RTX and related software tools in the Flint, MI water system to update and calibrate an
existing hydraulic model to enhance corrosion control and improve chlorine residuals.

5.4 Modeling water quality transformations and processes

Water quality modelers are generally constrained by the existing capabilities of the software to model
water quality processes and transformations in the distribution systems. There is increasing interest
in being able to represent more complex processes such as chloramine dynamics, DBP formation,
and other processes that involve interaction between different species. A solution to this deficiency
is a general purpose, multi-species capability called EPANET-MSX (Multi-Species eXtension)
(Shang et al., 2008). This addition allows users to program their own chemical/physical/biological
reactions in EPANET (and in many similar commercial software packages) with almost unlimited
interaction capability between multiple species.

5.5 Revisiting some of the earlier assumptions

The water quality modeling profession is re-examining some of the basic assumptions associated with
hydraulic and water quality models of distribution systems (Powell et al., 2004). Some of the areas
where water quality modeling assumptions are being re-examined include the following:
Complete mixing at nodes – Fowler (1991) first questioned the assumption that water mixes
completely at junctions with multiple inlets and outlets. Austin et al. (2008), Romero-Gomez et al
(2008), and others have studied this situation using both laboratory analysis and CFD modeling and
suggest that the complete mix assumption would lead to some inaccuracy in computing chemical
transport in a distribution system. Ho and Khalsa (2008) and others have modified the EPANET code
to incorporate incomplete mixing at junctions.
Dispersion in pipe flow - Distribution system water quality models currently assume advective flow
that results in water quality pulses moving through a pipe without spreading out longitudinally. Lee
and Buchberger (2001) have studied pipe flow and found that dispersion can have a significant effect
on concentration profiles, especially in cases of intermittent laminar flow.
Pipe wall effects on chlorine – The mass-transfer-based model for predicting chlorine decay
considering both bulk decay and wall reaction formulation is used in EPANET and most commercial
models. However, recent studies have suggested that this formulation may not adequately represent
the actual wall demand processes and that further research is needed (Clark et al., 2005; Grayman et
al., 2002; DiGiano and Zhang, 2004).
Adequacy of traditional hydraulic models to support water quality modeling – Hydraulic modeling is
a widely accepted method that is used in a variety of water supply analyses. However, there are no
generally accepted standards or metrics for assessing the validity of models. It is widely accepted by
the modeling profession that water quality modeling requires a detailed calibrated hydraulic model
and that many existing hydraulic models are not adequate to accurately support water quality
modeling (AWWA, 2017).

6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The field of water quality modeling in distribution systems is alive, well and expanding in breadth,
complexity, and general acceptance. In the 40 years since this field first emerged, it has shown steady
 1st International WDSA / CCWI 2018 Joint Conference, Kingston, Ontario, Canada – July 23-25, 2018

growth and maturation. Work is continuing in this field aimed at making this a routine tool that water
utilities can use with confidence to make important design and operational decisions.

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