Warning!!

untuk diskon yang lebih dari 50%, harus dikroscek ke intrinsic valuation, atau dianalisa apakah ada potensi
Warning!! setelah fundamental perusahaan masuk secara kuantitatif, silahkan dianalisa secara kualitatif (apa keunggu
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)
QUALITY
Update harga: real-time Dividend QUANTITATIVE
Revenue Net Income Average
Payment
Symbol Stock Price (Growth: 3 (Growth: 3 ROE 5 Year
Streak
7,775 Year)9.0% Year)
11.5% (%) 18.9
IDX:BBCA (Annual) 12
IDX:BBRI 4,140 9.3% 9.5% 12 20.06
IDX:TLKM 4,260 8.5% 5.2% 11 21.45
IDX:BMRI 7,650 6.0% 25.8% 12 14.42
IDX:HMSP 950 3.6% 2.4% 11 44.11
IDX:ASII 5,475 9.4% 12.7% 11 14.7
IDX:ICBP 8,675 7.1% 11.9% 9 19.8
IDX:GGRM 30,500 13.2% 17.7% 11 18.18
IDX:CPIN 6,475 15.3% 17.9% 10 17.15
IDX:BBNI 7,500 9.4% 10.7% 12 14.17
IDX:KLBF 1,670 5.3% 2.9% 11 17.83
IDX:UNVR 4,050 2.3% 5.0% 11 130.53
IDX:INDF 6,375 4.7% 5.8% 11 13.21
IDX:MYOR 1,890 10.9% 13.6% 11 19.8
IDX:MEGA 9,525 6.6% 20.0% 6 10.6
IDX:PTBA 2,880 15.7% 26.5% 11 25.59
IDX:ACES 1,260 18.2% 13.2% 11 22.83
IDX:MLBI 7,500 4.4% 7.1% 11 103.77
IDX:SIDO 925 6.2% 18.9% 7 20.38
IDX:PWON 436 15.3% 26.3% 8 23.16
, atau dianalisa apakah ada potensi penurunan laba permanen
alisa secara kualitatif (apa keunggulan kompetitifnya, bagaimana prospek ke depan, dsb)
soft Excel (.xlsx)
QUALITY
NTITATIVEAverage Net Debt to QUALITATIVE Current RELA
Market Cap Economic INTRINSIC
Profit Margin Equity Ratio EPS PE Ratio
(milyar) Moat, prospect
5 Year
34.3% 948,878 (Quarter)
0.02 1158.6 (TTM)6.7
28.8% 621,180 0.02 278.7 14.9
15.8% 30 0.51 204.5 20.8
23.8% 353,430 0.02 588.9 13.0
12.6% 110,502 0.01 118.0 8.1
8.7% 221,647 0.66 526.2 10.4
10.2% 101,167 0.09 432.1 20.1
9.0% 58,685 0.09 5702.4 5.3
6.3% 106,177 0.24 221.7 29.2
25.2% 138,466 0 825.0 9.1
11.5% 78,281 0.07 55.1 30.3
17.6% 154,508 0.28 196.8 20.6
5.7% 55,975 0.62 559.0 11.4
6.7% 42,258 0.6 88.9 21.3
21.2% 65,667 0.08 314.3 30.3
18.9% 33,179 0.01 331.8 8.7
13.1% 21,609 0.03 60.1 21.0
30.7% 15,803 0.89 525.0 14.3
21.9% 27,960 0 55.4 16.7
39.1% 20,998 0.35 60.5 7.2
 VALUATION
Mean PERELATIVE
Mean PE( Earning
Mean PEand Book ValueCurrent
Multiples)
Standard Standard Standard Mean PBV Mean PBV Mean PBV
BVPS PBV (3 Year) (5 Year) (10 Year)
Deviation Deviation Deviation
25.0 (5 Year)
22.5 (10 Year)
20.6 7049.7 (TTM)1.1 4.3 4.1 4.3
(3 Year)
14.3 13.0 12.0 1671.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9
19.6 20.3 16.9 1006.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.1
15.3 14.4 13.8 4375.0 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4
30.0 34.1 28.8 306.5 3.1 12.3 15.9 19.0
15.1 16.8 15.6 3816.3 1.4 2.3 2.5 3.5
26.3 27.3 24.6 2167.8 4.0 5.4 5.5 5.0
17.2 17.7 19.8 27704.4 1.1 3.2 3.1 3.5
25.6 26.3 23.3 1285.3 5.0 4.4 4.3 5.6
10.2 10.1 11.3 6551.7 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.7
29.0 30.9 30.6 350.9 4.8 5.1 5.8 6.7
46.5 48.8 43.5 189.2 21.4 55.8 56.1 46.8
15.1 16.4 16.2 4301.9 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.4
33.0 31.9 27.2 432.0 4.4 7.0 6.6 5.8
21.3 21.6 16.9 2258.1 4.2 2.3 2.3 2.2
8.2 9.2 12.7 1716.7 1.7 2.5 2.3 3.9
27.6 25.7 26.1 275.9 4.6 6.5 6.0 6.2
27.6 28.1 28.0 609.4 12.3 39.5 37.0 37.6
20.3 19.4 20.9 219.9 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.9
13.7 14.3 20.1 299.2 1.5 2.6 2.9 4.0
VALUATION
RV1 RV2 RV3 RV4 RV5 RV6 Relative
Avg PE (3 Avg PE (5 Avg PE (10 Avg PBV (3 Avg PBV (5 Avg PBV (10 Fair Value
Year) Year) Year) Year) Year) Year) (minimum)
28,976 26,115 23,890 30,455 28,622 30,455 23,890
3,996 3,617 3,352 4,244 4,127 4,913 3,352
4,012 4,160 3,462 4,317 4,448 4,096 3,462
9,004 8,457 8,097 8,356 8,356 10,544 8,097
3,541 4,024 3,398 3,777 4,877 5,821 3,398
7,940 8,851 8,230 8,739 9,541 13,166 7,940
11,363 11,800 10,616 11,598 11,945 10,904 10,616
98,082 100,933 112,623 87,823 86,992 96,688 86,992
5,670 5,838 5,173 5,681 5,463 7,236 5,173
8,373 8,316 9,314 9,303 9,172 11,334 8,316
1,598 1,700 1,683 1,804 2,032 2,361 1,598
9,142 9,609 8,558 10,562 10,617 8,858 8,558
8,424 9,145 9,028 8,475 8,948 10,454 8,424
2,932 2,839 2,416 3,042 2,856 2,484 2,416
6,691 6,775 5,308 5,261 5,103 4,855 4,855
2,704 3,059 4,204 4,240 4,017 6,661 2,704
1,655 1,541 1,565 1,779 1,644 1,697 1,541
14,490 14,768 14,694 24,097 22,518 22,926 14,490
1,125 1,073 1,158 961 847 866 847
830 864 1,217 769 868 1,206 769
 Relative
Discount Discount
Fair Value
(minimum) (median)
(median)
28,799 67% 73%
4,062 -23% -2%
4,128 -23% -3%
8,406 6% 9%
3,900 72% 76%
8,795 31% 38%
11,481 18% 24%
97,385 65% 69%
5,675 -25% -14%
9,238 10% 19%
1,752 -5% 5%
9,375 53% 57%
8,988 24% 29%
2,847 22% 34%
5,285 -96% -80%
4,111 -6% 30%
1,650 18% 24%
18,643 48% 60%
1,017 -9% 9%
866 43% 50%
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

INTRINSIC VALUATION
BBCA
EPS = 0 - 10
Growth 1158
years = 9% p.a.
Discountafter
Growth Rate 10= 8.50% nilai harus > 4.5% (BI R
years = 3% p.a.

Nilai intrinsik = 34,374

"dengan metode Discounted Cash Flow"
Proyeksi EPS yang
disetarakan nilai
Tahun ke - Proyeksi EPS
1 1262 saat ini dengan
1163
2 1376 Discount Rate
1169
3 1500 1174
4 1635 1179
5 1782 1185
6 1942 1190
7 2117 1196
8 2307 1201
9 2515 1207
10 2741 1212
11 2824 1151
12 2908 1093
13 2996 1037
14 3085 985
15 3178 935
16 3273 887
17 3372 842
18 3473 800
19 3577 759
20 3684 721
21 3795 684
22 3909 649
23 4026 617
24 4147 585
25 4271 556
26 4399 527
27 4531 501
28 4667 475
29 4807 451
30 4951 428
31 5100 407
32 5253 386
33 5410 366
34 5573 348
35 5740 330
36 5912 314
37 6089 298
38 6272 283
39 6460 268
40 6654 255
41 6854 242
42 7059 229
43 7271 218
44 7489 207
45 7714 196
46 7945 186
47 8184 177
48 8429 168
49 8682 159
50 8943 151
51 9211 144
52 9487 136
53 9772 129
54 10065 123
55 10367 117
56 10678 111
57 10998 105
58 11328 100
59 11668 95
60 12018 90
61 12379 85
62 12750 81
63 13132 77
64 13526 73
 65 13932 69
66 14350 66
67 14781 63
68 15224 59
69 15681 56
70 16151 53
71 16636 51
72 17135 48
73 17649 46
74 18178 43
75 18724 41
76 19285 39
77 19864 37
78 20460 35
79 21074 33
80 21706 32
81 22357 30
82 23028 29
83 23719 27
84 24430 26
85 25163 25
86 25918 23
87 26696 22
88 27496 21
89 28321 20
90 29171 19
91 30046 18
92 30948 17
93 31876 16
94 32832 15
95 33817 15
96 34832 14
97 35877 13
98 36953 12
99 38062 12
100 39203 11
harus > 4.5% (BI Rate); pedoman IHSG = 12%
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

Rasio Campuran
1 Current Ratio = Aset lancar / Liabilitas Jangka Pendek

PWON DILD
Aset lancar = 9587 4762
Liabilitas Jangka Pendek = 3611 3651
Current Ratio = 2.65 1.30

2 Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) = Utang berbunga / Ekuitas entitas induk

PWON DILD
Utang berbunga = 5037 5202
Ekuitas Entitas Induk = 14410 5952
Debt to Equity Ratio = 0.35 0.87

3 Net Profit Margin (NPM) = Laba bersih periode berjalan / Pendapat

PWON DILD
Laba bersih periode berjalan = 2494 82.929
Pendapatan = 5240 1854
Net Profit Margin = 47.60% 4.47%

4 Return on Equity (ROE) = Laba bersih periode berjalan entitas indu

PWON DILD
Laba bersih periode berjalan
entitas induk = 2868 8.67
Ekuitas Entitas Induk = 14410 5952
Return on Equity (ROE) 19.90% 0.15%

5 Return on Capital (ROC) = Laba usaha / (Ekuitas + utang berbunga

PWON DILD
Laba usaha = 3,529.33 322.67
Ekuitas = 17360 6515
Utang berbunga = 5037 5202
Return on Capital (ROC) 15.76% 2.75%
 itas Jangka Pendek EPS 9M 44.65 * (Laba bersih berjalan yang diatribusikan kepada entitas induk)
=2150176250*1000/48159602400
EPS 1Y = 59.53

Ekuitas entitas induk

de berjalan / Pendapatan

de berjalan entitas induk / Ekuitas entitas induk

itas + utang berbunga)

kepada entitas induk)
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

IDX:BBRI

price 4,140
jml lembar 123.35 Milyar P/E ratio 14.86
market cap 510,648 Milyar PBV 2.47
Net Profit 2019 34,372 Milyar
Ekuitas 2019 206,323 Milyar
Net profit per lembar 279
Ekuitas per lembar 1,673

IDX:BRIS

price 1,520
jml lembar 9.72 Milyar P/E ratio 199.57
market cap 14,768 Milyar PBV 2.90
Net Profit 2019 74 Milyar
Ekuitas 2019 5,088 Milyar
Net profit per lembar 8
Ekuitas per lembar 524
P/S ratio Rata-rata
Relative Valuation

P/E ratio

Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
PBV

Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
P/S ratio

Q4 Q3 Q2
Q1
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

IDX:BBRI
Saat ini
price 4,140 P/E ratio 14.86
jml lembar 123.35 Milyar PBV 2.47
market cap 510,648 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 34,372 Milyar Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 206,323 Milyar P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 279 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 1,673 Konservatif
Moderat

MoS = 30%
Diskon saat ini = -6.7%

IDX:BBCA
Saat ini
price 7,775 P/E ratio 33.22
jml lembar 122.04 Milyar PBV 5.45
market cap 948,878 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 28,565 Milyar Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 174,042 Milyar P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 234 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 1,426 Konservatif
Moderat

MoS = 10%
Diskon saat ini = -46.1%

IDX:PWON
Saat ini
price 436 P/E ratio 7.21
jml lembar 48.16 Milyar PBV 1.46
market cap 20,998 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 2,913 Milyar Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 14,411 Milyar P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 60 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 299 Konservatif
Moderat

MoS = 50%
Diskon saat ini = 55.1%
 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2017
12.8 11.3 15.8 15.1 16.0 15.4 14.0 12.2 11.5 14.9 15.5 13.6
2.5 2.77 2.63 2.58 2.85 2.64 2.47 2.24 2.13 2.77 2.69 2.38

3,560 3,146
4,182 4,633
3,146
3,880

2,716

Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2017
21.8 19.4 28.9 26.5 27.1 25.9 24.8 23.8 21.9 24.1 23.2 22.4
4.005 4.17 4.74 4.46 4.63 4.31 4.23 4.15 3.87 4.21 4.11 3.93

5,095 4,529
5,711 5,947
4,529
5,321

4,789

Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2017
14.5 16.4 11.0 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.1 12.1 14.5 17.6 16.5
3 3.735 2.22 2.58 2.49 2.37 2.1 2.29 2.79 3.2 2.97

879 992
898 1,118
879
972

486
2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014 2014
13.7 12.0 11.0 11.6 10.4 11.1 11.1 8.7 10.5 13.4 11.9 10.7 11.1 10.6
2.5 2.23 1.97 2.14 2 2.5 2.5 1.99 2.5 3.41 2.95 2.82 3 2.99

2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014 2014
20.8 19.4 18.6 19.6 17.2 17.8 18.2 17.1 19.4 21.7 19.6 20.0 17.2 17.4
3.71 3.45 3.4 3.55 3.18 3.25 3.67 3.52 4.08 4.58 4.17 4.32 3.86 3.85

2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014 2014
17.7 20.1 16.3 23.1 21.1 15.8 18.9 6.7 8.8 10.1 9.9 12.5 12.0 13.9
3.16 3.28 3.13 3.92 3.75 3 3.31 2.35 3.09 3.82 4.02 3.91 3.68 3.95
2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010
8.4 8.5 9.5 11.1 9.2 10.3 9.2 10.7 11.0 9.5 11.5 11.3 11.3 14.2
2.26 2.43 2.79 3.34 2.65 3.07 2.84 3.14 3.35 3.21 3.88 3.53 3.53 3.77

2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010
16.6 17.9 19.4 22.8 19.1 17.0 15.9 17.8 18.2 18.9 20.3 20.0 18.6 21.1
3.71 4.03 4.28 4.97 4.33 3.96 3.96 4.45 4.7 4.77 5.08 4.75 4.63 5.09

2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010
11.5 12.9 16.3 20.9 14.5 18.2 17.5 24.5 26.1 23.2 28.9 26.5 27.4 88.4
3.35 3.77 4.92 5.76 3.72 4.75 3.7 4.11 4.05 4.61 5.9 5.56 6.09 7.29
2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008
14.1 13.1 12.9 13.2 11.7 8.3 9.5
3.76 3.36 3.46 3.58 2.97 2.14 2.52

2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008

19.6 19.1 17.6 16.6 13.1 12.2 13.9
4.86 4.55 4.29 4.22 3.46 3.05 3.44

2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008

50.9 21.2 33.5 27.2 27.6 -33.0 -675.9
5.98 4.71 4.53 3.89 2.89 1.91 3.92
WEBINAR 3 - SIMULASI TABUNGAN RUTIN

Pengeluaran bulanan = 10 jt
Pengeluaran tahunan = 120 jt
Inflasi = 4%
Pensiun kita brp tahun lagi = 20

25 x pengeluaran = 3000 juta

Dana Pensiun (FV) = $6,573.37 juta

Modal awal (PV) = 0 juta

Ekspektasi return investasi = 10%

Nabung rutin tahunan = $114.77 juta

Nabung rutin bulanan = $9.56 juta
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

IDX:BBRI
Saat ini
price 4,140 P/E ratio 14.86
jml lembar 123.35 Milyar PBV 2.88
market cap 621,180 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 34,372 Milyar x Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 206,323 Milyar x P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 279 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 1,437 Konservatif
Moderat

MoS = 30%
Diskon saat ini = -17.9%

IDX:BBNI
Saat ini
price 7,500 P/E ratio 8.99
jml lembar 18.46 Milyar PBV 1.30
market cap 138,466 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 Milyar Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 Milyar P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 834 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 5,763 Konservatif
Moderat

MoS = 40%
Diskon saat ini = 12.3%

IDX:PWON
Saat ini
price 436 P/E ratio 7.21

jml lembar 48.16 Milyar PBV 1.46

market cap 20,998 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 2,913 Milyar Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 14,411 Milyar P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 60 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 299 Konservatif
Moderat

MoS = 50%
Diskon saat ini = 54.5%

IDX:PWON
Saat ini
price 436 P/E ratio 18.35
jml lembar 48.16 Milyar PBV 4.03
market cap 20,998 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 2,913 Milyar Nilai wajar

Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 14,411 Milyar P/E ratio 4660.9

Net profit per lembar 254 PBV 4259.71

Ekuitas per lembar 1,057 Konservatif
Moderat

MoS = 50%
Diskon saat ini = #DIV/0!
 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2020 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017
12.16 11.28 10.84 15.8 15.1 16.0 15.4 14.0 12.2 11.5 14.9 15.5
2.5 2.73 2.1 2.63 2.58 2.85 2.64 2.47 2.24 2.13 2.77 2.69

3,389 3,143
3,593 3,923
3,143
3,512

2,458

Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2020 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017
9.8 10.6 4.6 9.5 8.8 11.3 11.4 10.9 9.3 9.0 11.5 13.6
1.345 1.64 0.66 1.19 1.15 1.5 1.55 1.52 1.36 1.34 1.67 1.87

8,186 8,804
7,751 9,452
7,751
8,548

5,129

Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2017
13.6 16.6 10.1 11.0 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.1 12.1 14.5 17.6 16.5

2.985 3.7275263 1.83 2.22 2.58 2.49 2.37 2.1 2.29 2.79 3.2 2.97

822 1,001
893 1,115
822
958

479

Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2020 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017
18.6 18.2 4.6 9.5 8.8 11.3 11.4 10.9 9.3 9.0 11.5 13.6
3.95 4.05 0.66 1.19 1.15 1.5 1.55 1.52 1.36 1.34 1.67 1.87
 212.51

188.40
4721.86 4,628
182.03
4175.15 4,281

4451.435

4454.3917
 2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014
13.6 13.7 12.0 11.0 11.6 10.4 11.1 11.1 8.7 10.5 13.4 11.9 10.7 11.1
2.38 2.5 2.23 1.97 2.14 2 2.5 2.5 1.99 2.5 3.41 2.95 2.82 3

2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014
10.0 9.2 10.4 9.1 9.6 8.8 10.5 10.3 8.4 11.9 12.0 10.6 10.2 9.2
1.45 1.35 1.38 1.18 1.22 1.2 1.24 1.22 1.25 1.67 2.25 1.93 1.84 1.66

IDX:PWON
2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015
17.7 20.1 16.3 23.1 21.1 15.8 18.9 6.7 8.8 10.1 price 436

jml
3.16 3.28 3.13 3.92 3.75 3 3.31 2.35 3.09 3.82 lembar 48.16 Milyar
market cap 20,998 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk
2,913
2020
Milyar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk
14,412
2020Milyar
Net profit per lembar60
Ekuitas per lembar299

2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014
10.0 9.2 10.4 9.1 9.6 8.8 10.5 10.3 8.4 11.9 12.0 10.6 10.2 9.2
1.45 1.35 1.38 1.18 1.22 1.2 1.24 1.22 1.25 1.67 2.25 1.93 1.84 1.66
 2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010
10.6 8.4 8.5 9.5 11.1 9.2 10.3 9.2 10.7 11.0 9.5 11.5 11.3 11.3
2.99 2.26 2.43 2.79 3.34 2.65 3.07 2.84 3.14 3.35 3.21 3.88 3.53 3.53

2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010
9.9 8.1 8.9 10.0 12.4 9.8 10.8 11.2 12.2 12.2 13.3 14.8 17.1 17.6
1.81 1.55 1.67 1.82 2.09 1.59 1.78 1.82 1.91 1.88 1.95 2.13 2.18 2.18

Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Saat ini avg 5yavg 10+y 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2013
P/E rati 7.21 17.0 17.0 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.0

PBV 1.46 4.17 4.17 3.6335 3.7051 3.7766 3.8481 3.9196 3.9912 4.0627 4.1342 4.2057

Nilai wajar
P/E ratio 1,026 1,026
PBV 1,248 1,248
Konservatif 1,026
Moderat 1,137

MoS = 150% -568

Diskon s61.6%

2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010
9.9 8.1 8.9 10.0 12.4 9.8 10.8 11.2 12.2 12.2 13.3 14.8 17.1 17.6
1.81 1.55 1.67 1.82 2.09 1.59 1.78 1.82 1.91 1.88 1.95 2.13 2.18 2.18
 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008
14.2 14.1 13.1 12.9 13.2 11.7 8.3 9.5
3.77 3.76 3.36 3.46 3.58 2.97 2.14 2.52

2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008

14.8 10.6 11.5 11.5 13.7 12.5 6.1 8.04 8.08
2.5 1.71 1.64 1.5 1.67 1.42 0.63 0.64 0.94

2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011

17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.0

4.2773 4.3488 4.4203 4.4918 4.5634 4.6349 4.7064

2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008

14.8 10.6 11.5 11.5 13.7 12.5 6.1 8.04 8.08
2.5 1.71 1.64 1.5 1.67 1.42 0.63 0.64 0.94
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

INTRINSIC VALUATION
BBRI
CAEPS = 241.58
Discount0 Rate
Growth - 10 = 10.00% = 7% + 0.6*(12%-7%)
years = after 10
Growth 6% p.a.
years = after 20
Growth 3.0% p.a.
years = 2.0% p.a.

Nilai intrinsik = 4,106

"dengan metode Discounted Cash Flow"
Proyeksi EPS yang
disetarakan nilai
Tahun ke - Proyeksi EPS
1 139 saat ini dengan127 asumsi laba 2020 -50%
2 209 Discount Rate173 asumsi laba 2021 +50%
3 288 216 asumsi normal
4 305 208
5 323 201
6 343 193
7 363 186
8 385 180
9 408 173
10 433 167
11 446 156
12 459 146
13 473 137
14 487 128
15 502 120
16 517 112
17 532 105
18 548 99
19 564 92
20 581 86
21 593 80
22 605 74
23 617 69
24 629 64
25 642 59
26 655 55
27 668 51
28 681 47
29 695 44
30 709 41
31 723 38
32 737 35
33 752 32
34 767 30
35 783 28
36 798 26
37 814 24
38 830 22
39 847 21
40 864 19
41 881 18
42 899 16
43 917 15
44 935 14
45 954 13
46 973 12
47 992 11
48 1012 10
49 1033 10
50 1053 9
51 1074 8
52 1096 8
53 1118 7
54 1140 7
55 1163 6
56 1186 6
57 1210 5
58 1234 5
59 1259 5
60 1284 4
61 1309 4
62 1336 4
63 1362 3
64 1390 3
 65 1417 3
66 1446 3
67 1475 2
68 1504 2
69 1534 2
70 1565 2
71 1596 2
72 1628 2
73 1661 2
74 1694 1
75 1728 1
76 1762 1
77 1798 1
78 1834 1
79 1870 1
80 1908 1
81 1946 1
82 1985 1
83 2024 1
84 2065 1
85 2106 1
86 2148 1
87 2191 1
88 2235 1
89 2280 0
90 2325 0
91 2372 0
92 2419 0
93 2468 0
94 2517 0
95 2567 0
96 2619 0
97 2671 0
98 2725 0
99 2779 0
100 2835 0
 Laba BBRI (inflation adj)
Tahun Laba BBRI Inflation Calc Faktor Inflasi = Laba BBRI x Faktor Inflasi
2014 196.53 100.00 1.27 248.87
2015 205.91 108.36 1.17 240.62
2016 212.38 111.99 1.13 240.14
2017 235.08 115.38 1.10 258.00
2018 262.28 119.54 1.06 277.84
2019 278.67 123.28 1.03 286.24
2020 139.34 126.63 1.00 139.34
asumsi laba 2020 -50% Average = 241.58

si laba 2020 -50% NR BBRI = 3,512

si laba 2021 +50% NI BBRI = 4,106

NW BBRI = 3,809
PE IHSG 14.93
PBV IHSG 1.3688
PS IHSG 1.2688
ROE 9.17%
NPM 8.50%
Ini adalah request di Kolom Komentar WBI Ep. 19 untuk Mencari Bobot Saham IDX30
Free Float
Update 4 Mei 2020, sumber: https://www.idx.co.id/data-pasar/data-saham/indeks-saham/
Market Cap
Ticker Saham Lembar Harga (Milyar)
IDX:BBCA BBCA 5,566,812,058 7775 43,281.96
IDX:BBRI BBRI 51,328,401,502 4140 212,499.58
IDX:TLKM TLKM 45,318,430,440 4260 193,056.51
IDX:BMRI BMRI 18,479,999,999 7650 141,372.00
IDX:ASII ASII 18,254,034,111 5475 99,940.84
IDX:UNVR UNVR 5,497,415,000 4050 22,264.53
IDX:CPIN CPIN 6,578,877,600 6475 42,598.23
IDX:BBNI BBNI 7,384,867,957 7500 55,386.51
IDX:BRPT BRPT 24,773,325,538 875 21,676.66
IDX:KLBF KLBF 20,643,803,777 1670 34,475.15
IDX:SMGR SMGR 2,904,665,344 6825 19,824.34
IDX:INDF INDF 4,344,555,032 6375 27,696.54
IDX:UNTR UNTR 1,508,093,635 23250 35,063.18
IDX:INTP INTP 1,795,336,700 10950 19,658.94
IDX:ICBP ICBP 2,332,381,600 8675 20,233.41
IDX:ADRO ADRO 15,964,193,634 2280 36,398.36
IDX:GGRM GGRM 330,173,501 30500 10,070.29
IDX:HMSP HMSP 8,654,064,921 950 8,221.36
IDX:INKP INKP 2,196,052,553 7500 16,470.39
IDX:PGAS PGAS 10,433,545,128 1370 14,293.96
IDX:ACES ACES 6,865,145,000 1260 8,650.08
IDX:PTBA PTBA 3,884,766,299 2880 11,188.13
IDX:JPFA JPFA 5,525,562,235 1680 9,282.94
IDX:MNCN MNCN 6,808,273,759 860 5,855.12
IDX:INCO INCO 2,014,095,859 4700 9,466.25
IDX:ANTM ANTM 8,365,109,201 1770 14,806.24
IDX:BBTN BBTN 4,193,640,000 1735 7,275.97
IDX:WSKT WSKT 4,609,713,760 570 2,627.54
IDX:PTPP PTPP 3,037,949,703 925 2,810.10
IDX:ERAA ERAA 1,451,131,000 545 790.87

1,147,235.99
deks-saham/
Bobot
3.77%
18.52%
16.83%
12.32%
8.71%
1.94%
3.71%
4.83%
1.89%
3.01%
1.73%
2.41%
3.06%
1.71%
1.76%
3.17%
0.88%
0.72%
1.44%
1.25%
0.75%
0.98%
0.81%
0.51%
0.83%
1.29%
0.63%
0.23%
0.24%
0.07%

100.00%
 Lower Risk Market Risk (IHSG)
Beta 0.5 0.75 1
1 ROE 25.0% 17.5% 10.0%
2 DER 10.0% 25.0% 50.0%
3 NPM 20.0% 10.0% 8.5%
4 Profit Margin Stab (covariance) 2.5% 7.5% 10.0%
5 Earning's Predictability (R) 97.5% 85.0% 75.0%
6 Market cap (size, in Bio) 200 100 50
et Risk (IHSG) Higher Risk Input Value
1.5 2
7.5% 5.0% 20.0% 0.67
100.0% 200.0% 0.0% 0.50
5.0% 2.5% 25.0% 0.50
15.0% 20.0% 5.0% 0.63
50.0% 25.0% 99.0% 0.50
10 1 250 0.50

BETA = 0.55
Adjustment = 0.00
FINAL BETA = 0.55

10Y Bond yield = 7.0%

IHSG = 12.0%

Discount rate = 9.74%