4 Pie 21-22

MIN-303, PIE 2021-2022 Akshay Dvivedi 10/11/2021
This material is only for classroom discussion. For

limited circulation only.
Project
is well defined task which has a definable beginning and end
requires one or more resources for the completion of its
constituent activities (interrelated and accomplished)
can be broken down into a number of identifiable activities which
will consume time and other resources during their completion
is scheduled to be completed by a target date
is large and complex and has many interrelated activities
Execution of the project activities - subjected to uncertainties/risks
This material is only for classroom discussion. For limited circulation only.
This material is only for classroom discussion.

For limited circulation only. 1
Project
Project

Project
Network
Graphical portrayal of activities and event
Shows dependency relationships between tasks/activities in a
project
Clearly shows tasks that must precede (precedence) or follow
(succeeding) other tasks in a logical manner
Clear representation of plan – a powerful tool for planning and
controlling project
Network techniques used are:
• CPM (Critical Path Method)
• PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique)

Graphically display the precedence

relationships & sequence of activities
Estimate the project’s duration
Identify critical activities that cannot be
delayed without delaying the project
Estimate the amount of slack associated with
non-critical activities
CPM & PERT
Activity : Any portions of project (tasks) which uses up

resource and consumes time
Activity on Arrow (AOA) showed as arrow,
Activity on Node (AON)
Event : Beginning or ending points of one or more
activities, instantaneous point in time (nodes)
Network : Combination of all project activities & events
PRECEEDING SUCCESSOR
ACTIVITY
EVENT

CPM & PERT
Activity-on-Node (AON):
• Uses nodes to represent the activity
• Uses arrows to represent precedence relationships

Rules for drawing network diagram

1. Each activity is represented by one & only one arrow in the
network.
2. No two activities should be identified (Duplicate Activities) by
the same end events.
3. Precedence relationships among all activities - always be
maintained.
4. Dummy activities can be used to maintain precedence
relationships only when actually required. A dummy activity
shows a precedence relationship but reflects no passage of time.
5.This Looping among
material is only for classroom the activities
discussion. must be
For limited circulation only. avoided
Rules for drawing network diagram

6. All events, except the first and last, should have at least one
precedence and one successive activity (Avoid Dangling).

CPM (critical path method) system of networking is used,

when the activity time estimates are deterministic in nature.
• For each activity, a single value of time, required for its
execution, is estimated.
• Time estimates can easily be converted into cost data in this
technique.
• CPM is an activity oriented technique.
PERT
(Project Evaluation and Review Technique) technique is used,
when activity time estimates are stochastic in nature.
• For each activity, three values of time (optimistic, most likely,
pessimistic) are estimated.
• Optimistic time (a or to) estimate is the shortest possible time
required for the completion of activity.
• Most likely time (m or tm) estimate is the time required for the
completion of activity under normal circumstances.
• Pessimistic time (b or tp) estimate is the longest possible time
required for the completion of activity.
• PERT activities are full of uncertainties, times estimates can
not easily be converted in to cost data.
• PERT
This material is only foris an event
classroom oriented
discussion. technique
For limited circulation only.

Immediate Duration
Activity Description
Predecessor (weeks)
A Develop product specifications None 4
B Design manufacturing process A 6
C Source & purchase materials A 3
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment B 6
E Receive & install tooling & equipment D 14
F Receive materials C 5
G Pilot production run E&F 2
H Evaluate product design G 2
I Evaluate process performance G 3
J Write documentation report H&I 4
K Transition to manufacturing J 2
Immediate Duration
Activity Description
Predecessor (weeks)
A Develop product specifications None 4
B Design manufacturing process A 6
C Source & purchase materials A 3
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment B 6
E Receive & install tooling & equipment D 14
F Receive materials C 5
G Pilot production run E&F 2
H Evaluate product design G 2
I Evaluate process performance G 3
J Write documentation report H&I 4
K Transition to manufacturing J 2
This material is only for classroom discussion. For limited circulation

only.

Paths Path duration

ABDEGHJK 40
ABDEGIJK 41
ACFGHJK 22
ACFGIJK 23
The longest path (ABDEGIJK) limits the project’s

duration (project cannot finish in time less than
its longest path)
ABDEGIJK is the project’s critical path

CPM
The critical path is the longest path through the network (thus
determines minimum time in which the network can be completed)
CPM
Path A: 1  2  3  4  6  7, 3+2+0+3+1 = 9 units

Path B: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7, 3+2+0+1+1+1 = 8 units
Path C: 1  2  4  6  7, 3+1+3+1 = 8 units
Path D: 1  2  4  5  6  7, 3+1+1+1+1 = 7 units

CPM
Earliest start time rule:
The earliest start time for an activity leaving a particular node is

equal to the largest of the earliest finish times for all activities
entering the node.
Latest finish time rule:
The latest finish time for an activity entering a particular node is
equal to the smallest of the latest start times for all activities
leaving the node.
CPM
• Earliest Start is earliest time an activity can start
ESij = Max (EFi)
• Earliest Finish is ESij plus the activity time
EFij = ESij + tij

CPM
• Latest Start is latest time an activity can start
without delaying critical path time
LSij = LFij - tij
• Latest Finish is the latest finish time
LFij = Min (LSj)
Slack
Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without
delaying the project.
Slack Time exists for those activities not on the critical path
Slack, Sij, computed as follows:Sij = LSij - ESij or Sij = LFij - EFij

Float
Amount of time by which completion of an activity can be delyed
beyond earliest expected completion time without affecting overall
project duration time.
Total Float (TFij ) = LFij - EFij
The activity detail and their predecessors

are given below along with their activity
times:
Activity Predecessors Time (Weeks)
A - 4
B A 3
C A 2
D B 5
E B 3
F C, D 4
G E, F 3

Activity Predecessors Time (Weeks)

A - 4
B A 3
C A 2
D B 5
E B 3
F C, D 4
G E, F 3
E D1
3 D 0
B
F G
A
3 5
C D2 4 3
4
2 0
Probabilistic Activity Times

• Activity time estimates usually can not be made with certainty.
• PERT is used for probabilistic activity times.
• In PERT, three time estimates are used: most likely time (m), the
optimistic time (a) , and the pessimistic time (b).
• These provide an estimate of the mean and variance of a beta
distribution:
• mean (expected time): t  a  4m  b
6
 
2
• variance: v   b - a 
 6 

Probabilistic Activity Times

• mean (expected time): t  a  4m  b
6
2
• variance: v   b - a 
 6 
 discussion.
This material is only for classroom  For limited circulation only.
PERT
t  a  4m  b
6
 
2
v   b - a 
 6 

PERT
PERT
• Find Critical path
• Find Total variance along the critical path
• Find probability that project can be completed in x time
Critical Path Activity Variance
13 1
35 1/9
57 16/9
79 4
total 62/9
• Using normal distribution, probabilities are

 = 25 weeks determined by computing number of standard
2 = 6.9 weeks deviations (Z) a value is from the mean.
• Value is used to find corresponding
 = 2.63 probability

CPM & PERT

Find the time taken to complete the project?
CPM & PERT
1-3-7-9-10

CPM & PERT
CPM & PERT

CPM & PERT

Find critical path and slack time?

CPM & PERT

Expected task time and variance?
Critical path?
Earliest and latest expected time?
Probability of completion if original completion time is 41.5 days?
CPM & PERT

Activity to tp tm te Var
A 5 10 8 7.83 0.69
B 18 22 20 20 0.44
C 26 40 33 33 5.44
D 16 20 18 18 0.44
E 15 25 20 20 2.78
F 6 12 9 9 1
G 7 12 10 9.83 0.69
H 7 9 8 8 0.11
I 3 5 4 4 0.11
Critical Path – C+G (Add 5.44 and 0.69) 6.13

CPM & PERT
Z= (41.5-42.8)/sqrt(6.13) = -0.52
30% approximate chances that the project will complete in 41.5 weeks or less
THANKYOU


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MIN-303, PIE 2021-2022 Akshay Dvivedi 10/11/2021

This material is only for classroom discussion. For

Execution of the project activities - subjected to uncertainties/risks

This material is only for classroom discussion.

This material is only for classroom discussion.

This material is only for classroom discussion.

Graphically display the precedence

CPM & PERT

Activity : Any portions of project (tasks) which uses up

This material is only for classroom discussion.

CPM & PERT

This material is only for classroom discussion.

Rules for drawing network diagram

Rules for drawing network diagram

This material is only for classroom discussion.

CPM (critical path method) system of networking is used,

This material is only for classroom discussion.

This material is only for classroom discussion. For limited circulation

This material is only for classroom discussion.

Paths Path duration

The longest path (ABDEGIJK) limits the project’s

This material is only for classroom discussion.

Path A: 1  2  3  4  6  7, 3+2+0+3+1 = 9 units

This material is only for classroom discussion.

Earliest start time rule:

The earliest start time for an activity leaving a particular node is

This material is only for classroom discussion.

This material is only for classroom discussion.

The activity detail and their predecessors

This material is only for classroom discussion.

Activity Predecessors Time (Weeks)

Probabilistic Activity Times

This material is only for classroom discussion.

Probabilistic Activity Times

This material is only for classroom discussion.

• Using normal distribution, probabilities are

This material is only for classroom discussion.

CPM & PERT

CPM & PERT

This material is only for classroom discussion.

CPM & PERT

CPM & PERT

This material is only for classroom discussion.

CPM & PERT

This material is only for classroom discussion.

CPM & PERT

CPM & PERT

This material is only for classroom discussion.

CPM & PERT

This material is only for classroom discussion.

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