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NBA BASIC - Happy Hour Co - DCF Model v2
NBA BASIC - Happy Hour Co - DCF Model v2
Mar-20
Happy Hour Co — MODEL
Assumptions
Circular switch
On / off 1
Key assumptions
EV ($m) 413.0
Happy Hour Co - 5 Year plan
5 Year Plan
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Revenue 1,149 1,256 1,354 1,447 1,443
YoY growth % 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% -0.3%
GP $ 583 634 689 737 753
GM% 50.7% 50.5% 50.9% 50.9% 52.2%
Opex (523) (580) (622) (662) (678)
Operating profit 60 54 67 75 75
Operating margin % 5.2% 4.3% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2%
Interest and Amortisation (5) (6) (6) (6) (6)
Group PBT (Underlying) 55 48 61 68 69
March YE ($mm) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Total revenue 939.7 1,004.9 1,021.5 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,149.2 1,255.6 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6 1,471.5 1,498.0 1,521.9 1,543.2 1,561.8 1,577.4
Management case 1,149.2 1,255.6 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6
% forecast growth 0.9% 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%
EBITDA 101.1 109.9 114.6 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6 130.5 133.2 135.8 138.1 140.1 142.0
Management case 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3%
% forecast margin 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%
Depreciation and amortisation (23.3) (25.3) (30.1) (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) (36.1) (40.5) (47.2) (51.8) (54.8) (53.6) (52.4) (51.1) (49.9) (48.7) (47.5)
% growth n.a. 8.6% 19.0% 5.0% 10.4% 3.2% 0.4% 12.0% 16.7% 9.8% 5.7% (2.2%) (2.3%) (2.3%) (2.4%) (2.4%) (2.5%)
% capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%
% margin 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%
EBIT 77.8 84.6 84.5 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.0 52.2 64.6 72.6 72.8 76.9 80.9 84.6 88.1 91.4 94.5
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (10.1%) 23.8% 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%
% tax rate 19.0% 19.0% 17.0% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3%
x Net income 55.5 65.8 64.9 59.5 58.4 48.3 44.5 39.9 49.4 55.9 56.1
% growth n.a. 18.6% (1.4%) (8.3%) (1.8%) (17.3%) (7.9%) (10.3%) 23.8% 13.2% 0.3%
% margin 5.9% 6.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9%
Cashflow statement
Capex (30.4) (37.5) (40.3) (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
% growth n.a. 23.4% 7.5% (10.4%) 3.3% (16.9%) 16.1% 41.7% (2.0%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% sales 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
% Cash conversion 69.9% 65.9% 64.8% 66.8% 65.9% 68.4% 61.8% 44.9% 55.3% 59.8% 60.8% 61.7% 62.5% 63.2% 63.8% 64.3% 64.8%
Change in Working Capital (5.3) 25.1 (11.2) (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.1 15.2 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. (573.6%) (144.6%) 45.5% (22.7%) (17.5%) (157.7%) 168.5% (5.9%) (26.8%) (64.4%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (149.3%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (62.5%) (472.3%) (119.4%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% (1.7%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Summary financials
March Y/E 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenue 940 1,005 1,022 1,095 1,135 1,139 1,149 1,256 1,354 1,447 1,443 1,471 1,498 1,522 1,543 1,562 1,577
% growth n.a. 6.9% 1.7% 7.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.9% 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 93 112 124 128 131 133 136 138 140 142
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3%
% margin 10.8% 10.9% 11.2% 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%
D&A (23) (25) (30) (32) (35) (36) (36) (40) (47) (52) (55) (54) (52) (51) (50) (49) (48)
% of revenue (2.5%) (2.5%) (2.9%) (2.9%) (3.1%) (3.2%) (3.1%) (3.2%) (3.5%) (3.6%) (3.8%) (3.6%) (3.5%) (3.4%) (3.2%) (3.1%) (3.0%)
% of capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%
EBIT 78 85 85 77 75 62 58 52 65 73 73 77 81 85 88 91 94
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (10.1%) 23.8% 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 93 112 124 128 131 133 136 138 140 142
Capex (30) (38) (40) (36) (37) (31) (36) (51) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50)
% revenue 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
Change in NWC (5) 25 (11) (16) (13) (10) 6 16 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows 0 0 0 0 (2) 1 0 0 (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5)
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Exceptional items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (18) (7) 25 (5) 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% (1.7%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DCF
Key assumptions
Transaction date 31-Mar-20
Next financial YE 31-Mar-21
Perpetuity growth rate 0.5% <<< Put down the assumptions after discussing with your senior
TV exit EBITDA multiple 8.5X
WACC used for sensitivity analy 8.5%
Stub period (731) (366) 0 365 730 1,095 1,461 1,826 2,191 2,556 2,922 3,287 3,652
Stub factor 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Actuals Estimates
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenue 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,149.2 1,255.6 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6 1,471.5 1,498.0 1,521.9 1,543.2 1,561.8 1,577.4
% growth 3.7% 0.3% 1.2% 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%
EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6 130.5 133.2 135.8 138.1 140.1 142.0
% margin 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%
% growth 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (1.6%) 20.7% 11.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3%
D&A (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) (36.1) (40.5) (47.2) (51.8) (54.8) (53.6) (52.4) (51.1) (49.9) (48.7) (47.5)
% sales 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%
% of capex 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%
EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.0 52.2 64.6 72.6 72.8 76.9 80.9 84.6 88.1 91.4 94.5
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%
% growth (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (10.1%) 23.8% 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%
Tax (11.0) (8.9) (11.8) (13.3) (13.3) (14.1) (14.8) (15.5) (16.2) (16.8) (17.3)
% tax rate 19.0% 17.0% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3%
EBIAT 47.0 43.3 52.8 59.3 59.4 62.8 66.1 69.1 72.0 74.7 77.1
% margin 4.1% 3.4% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9%
% growth n.a. (7.9%) 21.8% 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%
D&A 36.1 40.5 47.2 51.8 54.8 53.6 52.4 51.1 49.9 48.7 47.5
Capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
% sales 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
% D&A 114.2% 106.9% 86.1% 99.6% 126.1% 105.9% 96.5% 91.2% 93.3% 95.5% 97.8% 100.1% 102.6% 105.3%
Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.1 15.2 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows 0.0 (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
% sales 0.0% (0.1%) 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (0.4%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%)
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (1.4%) (0.5%) 1.7% (0.3%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FCF 53.1 30.9 53.4 92.3 58.3 61.4 63.4 65.3 66.9 68.4 69.6
Stub period (53.1) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF for discounting 0.0 30.8 53.4 92.3 58.3 61.4 63.4 65.3 66.9 68.4 69.6
Days to cashflow 0 365 731 1,096 1,461 1,826 2,192 2,557 2,922 3,287 3,653
Discount factor 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Sensitivity analysis
Spread rates and step-up
Perpetuity growth 0.5% Perptuity growth rate step-up 0.25% EBITDA multiple 8.5x EBITDA multiple step-up 0.5x
WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.50% WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.5%
Summary financials
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 92.6 111.8 124.4 127.6 130.5 133.2 135.8 138.1 140.1 142.0
% margin 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%
D&A 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.1 40.5 47.2 51.8 54.8 53.6 52.4 51.1 49.9 48.7 47.5
% of capex 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%
EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.0 52.2 64.6 72.6 72.8 76.9 80.9 84.6 88.1 91.4 94.5
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 (11.0) (8.9) (11.8) (13.3) (13.3) (14.1) (14.8) (15.5) (16.2) (16.8) (17.3)
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 17.0% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 18.3%
EBIAT 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.0 43.3 52.8 59.3 59.4 62.8 66.1 69.1 72.0 74.7 77.1
+D&A 31.6 34.9 36.0 36.1 40.5 47.2 51.8 54.8 53.6 52.4 51.1 49.9 48.7 47.5
+ Maintenance capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
+Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.1 15.2 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Exceptional cash flows 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Other cash flows 0.0 (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
FCF (20.8) (16.5) (4.7) 53.1 30.9 53.4 92.3 58.3 61.4 63.4 65.3 66.9 68.4 69.6
DCF output
EBITDA 94 93 112
EBIT 58 52 65
Change in NWC 16 15
1 2
Cashflow Timing (Years to Discount)
0.92 0.85
Discount Factor
Discounted DCF cashflows 28 45
73 73 77 81 85 88 91
11 4 0 0 0 0 0
25 (5) 0 0 0 0 0
92 58 61 63 65 67 68
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
72 42 41 39 37 35 33
itising firm value ($m) and implied offer price to WACC and TGR
874 / 396c 890 / 405c 908 / 414c 927 / 424c 948 / 434c
816 / 368c 830 / 375c 845 / 382c 861 / 390c 878 / 399c
766 / 342c 777 / 348c 790 / 355c 804 / 361c 818 / 369c
721 / 320c 731 / 325c 742 / 330c 753 / 336c 765 / 342c
680 / 299c 689 / 304c 698 / 308c 708 / 313c 719 / 319c
10 TV
2030E
1,577
1.0%
142
9.0%
1.3%
(48)
3.0%
95.0%
94
6.0%
(17)
18.3%
(50)
3.2%
(5)
0.3%
0.0%
70 875
10
0.44
31 387