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STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

Mar-20
Happy Hour Co — MODEL
Assumptions
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Key assumptions

Last Historical FYE 30-Mar-19


Transaction date 31-Mar-20

Enterprise value calculation

Current share price (c) 165.0 p_price


NOSH (m) 199.0
Market cap ($m) 328.4
Net debt / (cash) ($m) 84.6
Minority interests ($m) 0.0
Pension liability ($m) 0.0
Investment in associates ($m) 0.0

EV ($m) 413.0
Happy Hour Co - 5 Year plan

5 Year Plan
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Revenue 1,149 1,100 1,354 1,447 1,443
YoY growth % -4.3% 23.1% 6.9% -0.3%
GP $ 583 550 689 737 753
GM% 50.7% 50.0% 50.9% 50.9% 52.2%
Opex (523) (580) (622) (662) (678)
Operating profit 60 (30) 67 75 75
Operating margin % 5.2% -2.7% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2%
Interest and Amortisation (5) (6) (6) (6) (6)
Group PBT (Underlying) 55 (36) 61 68 69

Exceptionals (18) (7) 1 (5)


Group PBT post exceptionals 55 (54) 54 70 64
Add back: Interest 3 4 4 4 4
Add back: Amortisation 2 2 2 2 2
Add back: Depreciation 34 38 45 50 53
EBITDA post exceptionals 94 (10) 105 126 123

Adjust for non-cash exceptionals 0 0 0 24 0


Capex (36) (51) (50) (50) (50)
Acquisition (9) (9) 0 0 0
Tax (18) (9) (11) (12) (12)
Interest (3) (4) (4) (4) (4)
Working Capital 6 16 15 11 4
Dividend (37) (24) (24) (24) (24)
Other 0 (5) (5) (5)

Net Cash flow (3) (91) 26 65 31


Free Cash Flow 43 (57) 50 89 55

Opening Net Debt (82) (85) (175) (149) (84)


Closing Net Debt (85) (175) (149) (84) (53)
Net debt : EBITDA 0.9x 21.4x 1.3x 0.7x 0.4x
Income statement
Actuals CMD case Extrapolations

March YE ($mm) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

Total revenue 939.7 1,004.9 1,021.5 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,149.2 1,100.0 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6 1,471.5 1,498.0 1,521.9 1,543.2 1,561.8 1,577.4
Management case 1,149.2 1,100.0 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6
% forecast growth 0.9% (4.3%) 23.1% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%

EBITDA 101.1 109.9 114.6 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 8.2 111.8 124.4 127.6 130.5 133.2 135.8 138.1 140.1 142.0
Management case 94.1 8.2 111.8 124.4 127.6
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (91.3%) 1263.0% 11.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3%
% forecast margin 8.2% 0.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%

Depreciation and amortisation (23.3) (25.3) (30.1) (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) (36.1) (40.5) (47.2) (51.8) (54.8) (53.6) (52.4) (51.1) (49.9) (48.7) (47.5)
% growth n.a. 8.6% 19.0% 5.0% 10.4% 3.2% 0.4% 12.0% 16.7% 9.8% 5.7% (2.2%) (2.3%) (2.3%) (2.4%) (2.4%) (2.5%)
% capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%
% margin 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%

EBIT 77.8 84.6 84.5 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.0 (32.3) 64.6 72.6 72.8 76.9 80.9 84.6 88.1 91.4 94.5
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (155.6%) (300.3%) 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% (2.9%) 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%

% tax rate 19.0% 19.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%

x Net income 55.5 65.8 64.9 59.5 58.4 48.3 44.5 (30.2) 50.2 56.8 57.0
% growth n.a. 18.6% (1.4%) (8.3%) (1.8%) (17.3%) (7.9%) (167.8%) (266.4%) 13.2% 0.3%
% margin 5.9% 6.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% 3.9% (2.7%) 3.7% 3.9% 4.0%

Cashflow statement

Capex (30.4) (37.5) (40.3) (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
% growth n.a. 23.4% 7.5% (10.4%) 3.3% (16.9%) 16.1% 41.7% (2.0%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% sales 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
% Cash conversion 69.9% 65.9% 64.8% 66.8% 65.9% 68.4% 61.8% (521.8%) 55.3% 59.8% 60.8% 61.7% 62.5% 63.2% 63.8% 64.3% 64.8%

Change in Working Capital (5.3) 25.1 (11.2) (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.1 15.2 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. (573.6%) (144.6%) 45.5% (22.7%) (17.5%) (157.7%) 168.5% (5.9%) (26.8%) (64.4%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other Cashflows (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (149.3%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% growth n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (62.5%) (472.3%) (119.4%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% (1.7%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Summary financials
March Y/E 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

Revenue 940 1,005 1,022 1,095 1,135 1,139 1,149 1,100 1,354 1,447 1,443 1,471 1,498 1,522 1,543 1,562 1,577
% growth n.a. 6.9% 1.7% 7.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.9% (4.3%) 23.1% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 8 112 124 128 131 133 136 138 140 142
% growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (91.3%) 1263.0% 11.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3%
% margin 10.8% 10.9% 11.2% 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 0.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%
D&A (23) (25) (30) (32) (35) (36) (36) (40) (47) (52) (55) (54) (52) (51) (50) (49) (48)
% of revenue (2.5%) (2.5%) (2.9%) (2.9%) (3.1%) (3.2%) (3.1%) (3.7%) (3.5%) (3.6%) (3.8%) (3.6%) (3.5%) (3.4%) (3.2%) (3.1%) (3.0%)
% of capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%
EBIT 78 85 85 77 75 62 58 (32) 65 73 73 77 81 85 88 91 94
% growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (155.6%) (300.3%) 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%
% margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% (2.9%) 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%
EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 94 8 112 124 128 131 133 136 138 140 142
Capex (30) (38) (40) (36) (37) (31) (36) (51) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50)
% revenue 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
Change in NWC (5) 25 (11) (16) (13) (10) 6 16 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Cashflows 0 0 0 0 (2) 1 0 0 (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5)
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Exceptional items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (18) (7) 25 (5) 0 0 0 0 0 0
% revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% (1.7%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DCF
Key assumptions
Transaction date 31-Mar-20
Next financial YE 31-Mar-21
Perpetuity growth rate 0.5%
TV exit EBITDA multiple 8.5x
WACC used for sensitivity analy 8.5%

DCF FCF Calculation

Stub period (731) (366) 0 365 730 1,095 1,461 1,826 2,191 2,556 2,922 3,287 3,652
Stub factor 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Actuals Estimates
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

Revenue 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,149.2 1,100.0 1,353.8 1,447.0 1,442.6 1,471.5 1,498.0 1,521.9 1,543.2 1,561.8 1,577.4
% growth 3.7% 0.3% 1.2% (4.3%) 23.1% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%

EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 8.2 111.8 124.4 127.6 130.5 133.2 135.8 138.1 140.1 142.0
% margin 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 0.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%
% growth 0.7% (10.3%) (4.1%) (91.3%) 1263.0% 11.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3%

D&A (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) (36.1) (40.5) (47.2) (51.8) (54.8) (53.6) (52.4) (51.1) (49.9) (48.7) (47.5)
% sales 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%
% of capex 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%

EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.0 (32.3) 64.6 72.6 72.8 76.9 80.9 84.6 88.1 91.4 94.5
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% (2.9%) 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%
% growth (3.2%) (16.6%) (6.7%) (155.6%) (300.3%) 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%

Tax (11.0) 5.5 (11.0) (12.3) (12.4) (13.1) (13.7) (14.4) (15.0) (15.5) (16.1)
% tax rate 19.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%

EBIAT 47.0 (26.8) 53.6 60.2 60.4 63.8 67.1 70.2 73.2 75.9 78.4
% margin 4.1% (2.4%) 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%
% growth n.a. (157.0%) (300.3%) 12.3% 0.3% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3%

D&A 36.1 40.5 47.2 51.8 54.8 53.6 52.4 51.1 49.9 48.7 47.5

Capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
% sales 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
% D&A 114.2% 106.9% 86.1% 99.6% 126.1% 105.9% 96.5% 91.2% 93.3% 95.5% 97.8% 100.1% 102.6% 105.3%

Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.1 15.2 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other Cashflows 0.0 (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
% sales 0.0% (0.1%) 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (0.4%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.3%)

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (1.6%) (0.5%) 1.7% (0.3%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

FCF 53.1 (39.2) 54.2 93.3 59.3 62.4 64.5 66.4 68.1 69.6 70.9

Stub period (53.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF for discounting 0.0 (39.2) 54.2 93.3 59.3 62.4 64.5 66.4 68.1 69.6 70.9

Days to cashflow 0 365 731 1,096 1,461 1,826 2,192 2,557 2,922 3,287 3,653
Discount factor 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

Terminal value Perpetuity growth portion 890.7


Exit EBITDA multiple 1,206.7

Perpetuity growth method Exit EBITDA multiple method


Present value ($m) (%) Present value ($m) (%)
PV of FCF 345 46.7% PV of FCF 344.6 37.3%
PV of Terminal Value 394 53.3% PV of Terminal Value 579.1 62.7%
Enterprise value 739 100.0% Enterprise value 923.6 100.0%
Net debt & adjustments (84.6) Net debt & adjustments (84.6)
Equity value 654 Equity value 839.0
Share price 329 Share price 421.6
% premium to current 99.1% % premium to current 155.5%

Sensitivity analysis
Spread rates and step-up

Perpetuity growth 0.5% Perptuity growth rate step-up 0.25% EBITDA multiple 8.5x EBITDA multiple step-up 0.5x
WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.50% WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.5%

Perpetuity growth rate analysis EBITDA multiple analysis


Enterprise value ($m) Enterprise value ($m)
WACC (%) Perpetuity growth rate (%) WACC (%)Exit EBITDA multiple (x)
738.5223086668 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% 923.626836791 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x 9.5x
7.5% 7.5%
8.0% 8.0%
8.5% 8.5%
9.0% 9.0%
9.5% 9.5%

Offer price (p) Offer price (p)


WACC (%) Perpetuity growth rate (%) WACC (%)Exit EBITDA multiple (x)
328.6 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% 421.6 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x 9.5x
7.5% 371 380 389 399 409 7.5% 420 438 457 475 494
8.0% 342 349 357 365 374 8.0% 403 421 439 457 474
8.5% 316 322 329 335 343 8.5% 387 404 422 439 456
9.0% 293 298 304 310 316 9.0% 372 389 405 422 438
9.5% 273 277 282 287 292 9.5% 358 374 389 405 421

Summary financials
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 94.1 8.2 111.8 124.4 127.6 130.5 133.2 135.8 138.1 140.1 142.0
% margin 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 0.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%
D&A 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.1 40.5 47.2 51.8 54.8 53.6 52.4 51.1 49.9 48.7 47.5
% of capex 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.4% 79.3% 94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9% 97.4% 95.0%
EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 58.0 (32.3) 64.6 72.6 72.8 76.9 80.9 84.6 88.1 91.4 94.5
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.0% (2.9%) 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0%
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 (11.0) 5.5 (11.0) (12.3) (12.4) (13.1) (13.7) (14.4) (15.0) (15.5) (16.1)
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
EBIAT 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.0 (26.8) 53.6 60.2 60.4 63.8 67.1 70.2 73.2 75.9 78.4
+D&A 31.6 34.9 36.0 36.1 40.5 47.2 51.8 54.8 53.6 52.4 51.1 49.9 48.7 47.5
+ Maintenance capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) (36.0) (51.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0)
+Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 6.0 16.1 15.2 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Exceptional cash flows 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.0) (6.8) 25.1 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Other cash flows 0.0 (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)

FCF (20.8) (16.5) (4.7) 53.1 (39.2) 54.2 93.3 59.3 62.4 64.5 66.4 68.1 69.6 70.9
DCF output

Summary financials and cashflow

DCF Forecast Year 0 1

Mar YE ($m) 2020E 2021E

Revenue 1,149 1,100

% growth (4.3%)

EBITDA 94 8

% margin 8.2% 0.7%

% growth (91.3%)

D&A (36) (40)

% of revenue 3.1% 3.7%

% of capex 79.3%

EBIT 58 (32)

% margin 5.0% (2.9%)

Tax on EBIT 5

% tax rate 17.0%

Capex (51)

% of revenue 4.6%

Change in NWC 16

Other Cashflows 0

% of revenue 0.0%

Exceptional items (18)

% of revenue 1.6%

Unlevered free cash flow (39)

1
Cashflow Timing (Years to Discount)
0.92
Discount Factor
Discounted DCF cashflows (36)

Net Present Value based on Perpetuity Growth Method

Amount % of Sensitising firm value ($m) an


Value Based on 8.5% WACC & 0.5% TGR
($m) NPV
Present Value of Cashflows 345 46.7%

PV of Terminal Value 394 53.3%


WACC (%)
WACC (%)
Implied Firm NPV 738 100.0%

Net debt & adjustments (85)

Implied equity value 654

Implied share price ($c) 329

% premium to current 99.1%


2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E


1,354 1,447 1,443 1,471 1,498 1,522 1,543

23.1% 6.9% (0.3%) 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4%

112 124 128 131 133 136 138

8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9%

1263.0% 11.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7%

(47) (52) (55) (54) (52) (51) (50)

3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2%

94.4% 103.7% 109.6% 107.2% 104.7% 102.3% 99.9%

65 73 73 77 81 85 88

4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7%

(11) (12) (12) (13) (14) (14) (15)

17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%

(50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) (50)

3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%

15 11 4 0 0 0 0

(5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5)

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(7) 25 (5) 0 0 0 0

0.5% (1.7%) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

54 93 59 62 64 66 68

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0.85 0.78 0.72 0.67 0.61 0.56 0.52

46 73 43 42 40 38 35

sitising firm value ($m) and implied offer price to WACC and TGR

Perpetuity Growth Rate (%)


0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00%

7.5% 823 / 371c 840 / 380c 858 / 389c 878 / 399c 899 / 409c
8.0% 765 / 342c 779 / 349c 794 / 357c 811 / 365c 828 / 374c

8.5% 714 / 316c 726 / 322c 739 / 329c 752 / 335c 767 / 343c

9.0% 668 / 293c 678 / 298c 689 / 304c 701 / 310c 713 / 316c

9.5% 627 / 273c 636 / 277c 646 / 282c 656 / 287c 666 / 292c
9 10 TV

2029E 2030E
1,562 1,577

1.2% 1.0%

140 142

9.0% 9.0%

1.5% 1.3%

(49) (48)

3.1% 3.0%

97.4% 95.0%

91 94

5.9% 6.0%

(16) (16)

17.0% 17.0%

(50) (50)

3.2% 3.2%

0 0

(5) (5)

0.3% 0.3%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

70 71 891

9 10

0.48 0.44

33 31 394
Value Based on 8.5% WACC & Amount
% of NPV
0.5% TGR ($m)
Present Value of Cash flows 345 46.7%

PV of Terminal Value 394 53.3%

Implied Firm NPV  738 100.0%

Net debt as of Mar-20E (85)

Implied equity value  654

Implied offer share price (c) 329

% premium to current 99.1%

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