CHILD WORK AND SCHOOL ATTAINMENT: A

CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

AKHLAQ UL HASSAN
ROLL NO. BD-763925
REGISTRATION NO. 15-PCR-02168

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES,
ALLAMA IQBAL OPEN UNIVERSITY, ISLAMABAD
2020
CHILD WORK AND SCHOOL ATTAINMENT: A
CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

Akhlaq ul Hassan
Roll No. BD-763925
Registration No. 15-PCR-02168

Supervisor

Dr. Muhammad Ilyas, Assistant Professor

Department of Economics,
Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad

Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Master

Of Philosophy Degree in Economics with Specialization in
Micro Economics at the Department of Economics,
Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities,
Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad
2020
In the name of Allah, Most Gracious, Most Merciful
 Dedicated
to the Almighty ALLAH Who
Taught Me, I Knew Not
 FORWARDING SHEET

The thesis entitled Child Work and School Attainment: A Case Study of Pakistan submitted

by Akhlaq ul Hassan in partial fulfillment of M.Phil degree in Economics with specialization in

(where applicable) M.Phil Economics has been completed under my guidance and supervision. I

am satisfied with the quality of student’s research work.

Date: January 2020 Signature: _____________________

Name: Dr Muhammad Ilyas

Assistant Professor
 DECLARATION

I, Akhlaq ul Hassan daughter of Zahoor ul Hassan Roll No. BD-763925 Registration No.

15-PCR-02168 a student of M.Phil at the Allama Iqbal Open University do hereby solemnly

declare that the thesis entitled Child Work and School Attainment: A Case Study of Pakistan

submitted by me in partial fulfillment of M.Phil degree in Economics is my original work,

except where otherwise acknowledged in the text, and has not been submitted or published

earlier and shall not, in future, be submitted by me for obtaining any degree from this or any

other University or institution.

Signature: ____________________

Date: _____January 2020 Name in Full: Akhlaq ul Hassan

 (Acceptance by the Viva Voce Committee)

Title of Thesis Child Work and School Attainment: A Case Study of Pakistan

Name of Student Akhlaq ul Hassan

Accepted by the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Allama Iqbal Open
University, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Philosophy Degree in
Economics with specialization in International Economics

Viva Voce Committee:

_____________________________________
Dean, Faulty of Social Sciences & Humanities

_______________________________
Chairman, Department of Economics

_____________________________
External Examiner

_____________________________
Supervisor

_____________________________
Member

______ January 2020

 AKNOWLEDGMENT

I start with humblest thanks to the Almighty ALLAH for granting me a superlative

opportunity to complete this work. I pay thanks to my parents for their prayers which helped

me at every stage. I also pay whole hearted gratefulness to my supervisor Dr Muhammad

Ilyas Assistant Professor for his precious guidance and advices to accomplish this research

work.

I am very grateful to all teachers at Allama Iqbal Open University Islamabad, including

Prof. Dr Rashid A.Naeem, Dr. Fouzia Jamshaid Assistant Professor, Dr Muhammad Jamil

Assistant Professor and Sir Rizwan Ahmed Satti Lecturer, for inculcating valuable

knowledge to me as a student and outstanding support whenever I needed. I would say

thanks to Mr. Tahir Rahim, Mr. Rizwan Ahmad, Mr. Ansar Satti and Mr. Nadeem Sadiq for

sharing of knowledge, administrative & moral support, cooperation and helping hands. I

will always remember my class fellows for their support, affection and sharing the

memorable times.

Lastly, I greatly acknowledge and express sincere gratitude to my family members

including my mother, my family members and especially my wife for supporting me at

every step and upbringing my moral.

(Akhlaq ul Hassan)

i
 ABSTRACT

Attendance of child at school and engagement of child in work has integrated relationship

and has been taken as serious concern in the modern world. Primarily, family of the child

decides to send child for attaining education or contributes to cater for financial burden of

the family. However, other factors such as child’s own characteristics, household,

demographic and socio-economic characteristics also play their role on school attendance,

work only or both at a time. This study along with school attendance and years of schooling

also focus on analyzing performance of child in school according to age, attaining school

grades and examining relationship of these factors with other connected characteristics

using micro survey data of Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) of Pakistan for

year 2015-16.

This study employs Patrinos and Psacharopoulos (1997) and Ray and Lancaster (2005)

measure of schooling attainment and found that child’s own characteristics are most

important determinants of school enrollment. Overall, this study conceives that work

unpleasantly affects attendance of child at school as well as fall below normal progress in

the class as per age however, school attendance suffers more. Dropping out from school and

engaging into work of elder children significantly rise which affects both school attendance

and performance of child at school. The study suggests improving formal educational

system, encouraging skillful technical education, promoting local industry as well as small

scale / household income generation schemes and enhancing income support programs to

far-off areas of the country that will help to reduce child work and curb massive dropout of

children from school and attain normal grades in class as per age.

Keywords: Child work; school attendance; performance of child in school; schooling age.

ii
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

AKNOWLEDGMENT i

ABSTRACT ii

LIST OF TABLES vi

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Important Causes and Impact of Child Work 2

1.2 Child Work and Education 3

1.3 Frequency and Nature of Child Work 5

1.4 Child Work is not the Inverse of School Attendance 8

1.5 School Enrolment 8

1.5.1 Enrolment Rate in Pakistan 9

1.5.2 Reasons of Low Enrolment Rate 9

1.5.3 Schooling and Child Work in Pakistan 10

1.6 Statement of the Problem 11

1.7 Objective of Study 11

1.8 Hypotheses 12

1.9 Significance of the Study 12

1.10 Organization of the Study 13

CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 14

CHAPTER 3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY 21

3.1 Theoretical Framework 21

3.1.1 Human Capital Model by Becker and Lewis (1973) 21

3.1.2 Human Capital Model by Becker (1994) 23

3.1.3 Schooling for Age 24

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 3.2 Methodological Framework 25

3.3 Methodology 25

3.3.1 Data Sources 26

3.3.2 Data Sampling 26

3.3.3 Estimation Methodology 27

3.4 Econometric Model 28

3.5 Variables Description 29

CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 31

4.1 Profile of Cross Tabulation Analysis 32

4.1.1 Child labour and School Attendance 32

4.1.2 Age wise Distribution of Children Engaged in Work and Study 33

4.1.3 Provincial Distribution 34

4.1.4 Province wise Distribution of Parent Education and Child Work 35

4.1.5 Progress of Child at School 35

4.1.6 Progress of Child at School, Child Work and School Attendance 36

4.1.7 Age wise Performance of Child at School 37

4.1.8 Province wise Progress of Children at School 38

4.1.9 Province wise Children Progress at School and Child Work 38

4.2 Descriptive Statistics 39

4.2.1 Child Characteristics 39

4.2.2 Parent Characteristics 41

4.2.3 Household Characteristics 41

4.2.4 Provincial Differences 41

4.2.5 Regional Differences 42

4.3 Estimation Results 42

4.3.1 Model-1 - Child Studying in School 42

iv
 4.3.1.1 Estimation Results of Logistic Regression for Model-I 42

4.3.1.1.1 Children Characteristics 45

4.3.1.1.2 Parent Characteristics 45

4.3.1.1.3 Household Characteristics 47

4.3.1.1.4 Provincial and Regional Differences 47

4.3.1.2 Decomposition Analysis 48

4.3.2 Model-2- Child Progress at School according to Age 50

4.3.2.1 Children Characteristics 52

4.3.2.2 Parent Characteristics 52

4.3.2.3 Household Characteristics 54

4.3.2.4 Provincial and Regional Differences 55

4.3.3 Decomposition Analysis–Progress of Child at School as per Age 55

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59

5.1 Conclusion 59

5.2 Recommendations 61

REFERENCES 63

APPENDIX – A Logistic Model 70

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 LIST OF TABLES

Table-3.1 Variables Description 30

Table-4.1.1 The incidence of Child labour and School Attendance 32

Table-4.1.2 Age wise Employment Status, Child Work and Children Studying 33

Table-4.1.3 Province wise Distribution of Children Studying and Work 34

Table-4.1.4 Province wise Distribution of Parent Education and Child Work 35

Table-4.1.5 Progress of Child at School 36

Table-4.1.6 Progress of Child at School, Child Work and School Attendance 36

Table-4.1.7 Age wise Performance of Children at School 37

Table-4.1.8 Province wise Progress of Children at School 38

Table-4.1.9 Province wise child work and school for age progress 39

Table-4.2.1 Summary Statistics 39

Table-4.3.1.1 Logistic Regression Analysis Child at School 44

Table-4.3.1.2 Logistic Regression Decomposition Analysis - Child at School 49

Table-4.3.2 Logistic Regression Analysis Progress at School according to Age 51

Table-4.3.3 Decomposition Analysis-Progress of Child at School according to Age 56

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 LIST OF ABBRIVATIONS

AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process

ANER Adjusted Net Enrolment Rate

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GER Gross Enrolment Rate

HCT Human Capital Theory

HDI Human Development Index

HIES Household Integrated Economics Survey

ILO International Labor Organization

KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

LFS Labor Force Survey

NIPS National Institute of Population Studies

PBS Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

PIHS Pakistan Integrated Household Survey

PLSS Peru Living Standards Measurement Survey

SBP State Bank of Pakistan

Sig. Significant

SIMPOC Statistical Information and Monitoring Program on Child Labor

Std. Dev Standard Deviation

UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund

US United States

WB World Bank

vii
 CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

A Child is the future and asset of any nation and if family and nation as a whole takes very

well care of its child, he / she would play keen and active role for the development of the

country. Children Employment Act 1991 declares a person of below 14 years of age as child

and adolescent if age is below 18 years. Education for younger in any formal institute is the

best form for the formation of human capital of any nation which would ultimately result in

economic growth and development of the nation. However, according to a report presented

by International Labor Organization (ILO, 2013), more than 215 million children in the

world are robbed of their childhood, education and self-respect because of the perseverance

of child labor. Amongst these children, 120 million children with ages ranging from 5 to 14

years work full time and one third of them are compelled to work in hazardous conditions.

The minimum age for work in Constitution of Pakistan is also stated as 14 years, although it

has been raised up to 16 years in 18th amendment however, labors laws have not been

updated. However, according to World Bank data (WB, 2012), 14.38 percent children of

age 7 to 14 years are in employment and as per ILO report (2016), 10 to 12 million teenager

are engaged in child work which had risen almost three times than 1996 survey in Pakistan.

Majority of these children are engaged in informal sector such as street hawkers, domestic

servants, garbage collectors, mechanic workers and daily wage laborers. Keeping in view

the heart rending conditions of children, this study aims to study effects of child work in

Pakistan along with impact of some other important determinants on school attendance as

well as performance of child in the class.

1
1.1 Important Causes and Impact of Child Work

In order to design policies and programs to keep out the children from work as well as

enhance the success rate of these policies, it is necessary to know the exact causes that result

the children to enter into labor force. There are socio, economic and cultural factors that

initiate and result in the persistence of child work. Webbink et al. in 2011 presented the

following main causes of child labor a) the means of household income, the educational

level and occupation and parent, b) number of family members, readiness of academic

resources and the degree of urbanization and c) the cultural values including beliefs and

customs regarding child work.

There is apparent association child work and low family income. Increase in poverty can

compel household head to propel child into work, which results in the prevention of

children from human capital investment, which they could have by attending school (Jensen

& Nielsen, 1997). The defective system of education (Ray, 2000; Murkjerhee and Das,

2008) and other factors such as, number of family members, parents’ education, order of

birth of each and every child and presence of polygamy can influence child work (Emerson

& Souza 2008). Murkjerhee and Das (2008) observed that frequency of children

accustomed to manual labor decreases with an increase in educational level of parents. It is

because of the parents’ familiarity of negative effects of child work on child’s development.

Though, contribution of the children is mainly influenced by economic factors. When

economic conditions of the family become better, it would decrease duration of child work

(Jenkins and Westaby, 1997). Pedraza and Ribero (2006) discovered that when family was

being led by a woman, specifically mother, children were devoted to studying, unlike the

cases when head of family was father. They concluded that amongst youth a slight change is

detected from educational circumstances and work, such as where study and work are being

2
carried out at the same time especially between 12 to 17 years old children. There are

certain factors that affect amount of child work such as, Rosati and Rossi in 2003

discovered that family size had a negative relation to the work hours of child. While,

Ravallion and Wodon (2000) witnessed that family takes consumption and expenditures

level, attending school and leisure time of its child into consideration before deciding

between work and education of child.

Child work spawns negative effects that get in the way of child’s rational, emotional and

social development (Amar et al., 2008). Majority of these child workers are passing through

an acute period of psychosocial development, during this period their vital personality

features and social behavior, such as self-worth are being shaped and defined. Child work is

an act that has negative effect on the quality of life as well as on child’s mental condition.

Therefore, impact of work on a child is not immediate or short-term rather these effects

prevail throughout the child’s lifecycle. Engaging in work related activities at a young age

not only decreases work opportunities during later life but also obstructs the attainment of

satisfactory educational level and it even hinders the development of a stable family

(Beegle, Dehejia & Gatti, 2005).

1.2 Child Work and Education

The Constitution of Pakistan states that “every child has the right to get free and compulsory

education”. It is provided in Article 25(A) of Constitution that State shall provide free and

compulsory education to all children of the age of five to sixteen years in such a manner as

may be determined by law. It says clearly that no child has to be employed in any

occupation which is hazardous for children except the family business or in any (training)

school established, assisted and recognized by the government.

3
ILO defines child work / labor as any activity other than study or play, paid or unpaid, that

is carried out by a person under the age of 15. Child labor and schooling are only two

dimensions of child activities. In Pakistan, another major measurement of child activities is

“inactiveness” (neither go to school nor go to work), especially among girls.

The noteworthy impacts of child work can be seen on the adaptation and performance of

youth and children in educational system. Majorly, the act of child work makes it difficult

for a child to participate in the academic activities (Dyer, 2007), in such a way that the time

allocated to studies is cut short by time for work and the devotion to academic activities in

lessened, because of the fatigue that laboring yields (Sabia, 2009).

However, a complex relationship exists between child work and school attendance that goes

way beyond the deliberation of presence and absence of both factors (Rosati & Rossi,

2003). In the literature, some factors related to child labor have seldom been taken into

account such as, the time a child gives to work, how many days he/she works in a week and

the effect child labor has on educational factors (Sabia, 2009). A wide array of studies

focused more on the school participation and child work determinants instead of the impact

that labor has on various educational aspects. As for Rosati and Rossi (2003), decisions

related to studying and working are mostly considered by the family simultaneously.

Studies conducted in developing countries have shown that a greater part of child workers

attend school regularly (Heady, 2003). Though, in certain cases, there is negative

relationship between the number of hours spent in school and work (Boozer & Suri 2001).

Buonomo (2011) noticed that children who work below two hours daily performs better

results in school (measured years in school, age-grade ratio, elementary education

completion, completion of minimum of one year of secondary education) as compared to

the children who attended school only. This study points to the distinct evidence of the

4
adverse impact labor has on juvenile’s education, while insignificant dedication to labor

does not have a substantial effect on education of children (Ray & Lancaster, 2003).

The effect of child work and other connected variables has been calculated a number of

times with regards to the occurrence or lack of school attendance, years of schooling and

some other factors (Boozer & Suri, 2001; Jensen & Nielsen, 1997; Patrinos and

Psacharopoulos, 1997). But attendance is a factor that on its own is unable to justify the

child work impact, as it does not take quality of child’s school experience into account

(Buonomo, 2011). Therefore, it is obligatory to mention other factors associated with

schooling to effectively gauge impact of child work on the said factors, for instance, years

of school attending and age-grade ratio.

Although, a relationship exists between child work and schooling, specifically when other

variables such as number of family members, income and gender are taken into account,

these variables may help in the indirect evaluation of educational concerns of a child

involved in work. In fact, other factors also contribute to academic progress demonstrated in

various subjects or failure of courses and work duration. Frequency of children engaged in

work increased the tendency of attending school, proposing that the variables related to

academic performance are the ones that illustrate the effect of child work on a child’s

education (Buonomo, 2011).

1.3. Frequency and Nature of Child Work

1.3.1 Frequency

Children are described as 5 to 14 year old persons. Child workers are regarded as 5 to 11

years old children being economically active. ILO considered economically active child

workers if they worked minimum of an hour in a week. On the other hand, for 12-14 year

5
old children, child labor is defined as either minimum of 14 hours of harmless work or 1 or

more hour of hazardous work per week. ILO estimated the total number of economically

active children aged 5-14 in the year 2000 to be 211 million, whereas the child laborers

were 186.3 million in number. Out of these 211 million were likely to be working full-time

(ILO, 2002). The participation rate of child labor on average is 15.5 percent, however the

participation rate in hazardous work is astoundingly high, at 9.3 percent.

There are enormous diversities in the frequency of child workers in different parts of world.

There are 41 percent child workers living in sub-Saharan Africa, 21 percent in Asia and 17

percent for Latin America.

1.3.2 Issues of Measurement

In this section, the study discusses how measurement issues and choices disturb estimates in

any part of the world.

1.3.2.1 Child Age: ILO defines children between age of 5 to 14 year. However,

researchers work on child labor take children as either 5 to 15 years old or 5 to 18 years of

age. However, it depends upon regional customs that at what age a person starts making his

/ her life independently and what is the expected age of school entering and leaving the

school to enter into labor force.

1.3.2.2 Definition of Work: The first issue is what is work? ILO defines work as a

profitable outcome, which comprises of wage work as well as regular labor done. However,

it does not comprise of household work, to such an extent that the girls excessively have to

suffer the burden of this work and is underestimated. The second issue refers what type of

work is classified as a child work. ILO declares youngsters under 12 years of age as laborers

even if they work for few hours in a week, lacking any negative consequences. Surveys

6
mostly gather information related to hours worked per week in addition to the total number

of weeks worked per year. As child work can be seasonal or intermittent therefore looking

at the work done in previous week can give the wrong idea, as evidence by Jacoby and

Skoufias (1997) in India. Since children mostly combine work with school therefore it is

extremely useful to compare school participation data, as the reason for child work to be

considered undesirable is its contribution to deprivation of education.

1.3.2.3 Types of Work: ILO has classified some sorts of work as the worst forms of child

work and it does concern itself with the participation count in such activities. So it is helpful

for the researchers to group the children on the basis of type of work done. In practice,

household data surveys distinguish three types of work that is waged work, domestic work

and work done on household or farm that yields no wage.

1.3.2.4 Gender: Gender differential is observed in work participation of child in different

regions. Even the regions where participation rates display identical gender, dedicate

themselves to different type of work. For instance, in rural region of Ethiopia, girls are

concerned with domestic chores, whereas boys work on farms (Cockburn 2000). In rural

Pakistan girls are mostly paid to do seasonal agricultural work, on the other hand boys are

employed in non-agricultural sector (Bhalotra 2001). It is very necessary for the researcher

to collect data disaggregated by gender in order to reach conclusive policy direction.

1.3.2.5 Household as unit of Observation: The researcher should take household

composition into consideration for data analyses, for example number of family members,

siblings’ gender, birth order and gender of child. Most of the household survey data is

deprived of street children and baggers, however, study adopted / family children and

orphans who have merged in families. In this perspective families are the sole focus of

policy interventions; this is a significant unit of observation.

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1.4 Child Work is not the Inverse of School Attendance

1.4.1 Surveys conducted in families of low income countries concluded that number of

children who are not going to school nor going for work. This percentage is larger for

female as compared to male, a sign that doing nothing may symbolize doing house chores.

1.4.2 Several children go to school and work at the same time and this is mostly

observed when children work in agriculture or family business. School schedules usually

aid this as they are adjusted according to agricultural seasons. This phenomenon is more

widespread in African and Latin American nations as compared to Asia.

1.4.3 The impact work participation has on education maybe measured separately for

school attendance and school achievement as the quality of education attained by a working

child is mostly lower than full-time school going children (Heady, 2003) for Ghana, and

discussed for Ethiopia by Cockburn (2002).

1.4.4 Even though a tradeoff appears between doing work and school attendance &

performance, if major concern is the low quality of education attained and gender gap, then

policies intended to dissuade child labor may be of less importance than policies designed to

encourage school attendance (Ravallion and Wodon (2000).

1.5 School Enrollment

It is believed that school is the best place to educate the students. However, there are social

norms and problems which are being faced such as "poor people are more likely to drop

out", "Schools are unable to retain the students", "Boys are not willing to go to school",

"Girls are not allowed to go to school" and “Further education is not necessary”.

8
When parent realized that opportunity cost of sending child to school is greater and it would

not justify the loss they would face in case if their child contributes in income generation of

the family, then parent may be hesitant to send their child to school. This in result will cause

increase of child work. In case of child studying and doing work may hamper attendance at

school and quality of child learning achievements (Khanam and Ross, 2011).

1.5.1 Enrolment Rate in Pakistan

In order to reduce poverty and income inequality, the utmost useful phenomenon is by

educating the younger generations which will help in attaining sustainable economic growth

also eliminate the child work incidence among mass population.

According to National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS, 2015) 51.17 million children

are residing in Pakistan having 5 to 16 years of age, out of that 28.53 million these children

are attaining education in the schools while 22.64 million children are not enrolled in

schools. According to (WB, 2018) 5.3 million children that are age of primary school are

out of school. At the age of middle class, the figure reaches to 6.40 million, 5.02 million at

high school and 6.33 million children out of school while reaching higher secondary age

group. According to Pakistan Education Statistics (2016), in Primary to Higher Secondary

Level, 49 percent girls are out of school as compare to 40 percent boys. School enrolment

rate at secondary level is found to be 28.32 percent gross. Number of students enrolled in

attaining vocational training are 0.355 million (WB, 2018).

1.5.2 Reasons of Low Enrolment Rate

There are some root causes of low enrolment rate of schooling in Pakistan. These are:

1.5.2.1 Poverty is the main cause of low enrolment rate and child work. According to

Economic Survey of Pakistan (2017) GDP per capita of Pakistan was $1629 in fiscal year

9
2017 and recorded as $1472.89 (WB, 2018). An average Pakistani has to feed five or six

people with this minimal wage.

1.5.2.2 Another source is high rate of inflation. Core Inflation Rate has been recorded as

7.47 percent during 2010 to 2017. As per Ministry of Planning and Development (2016),

about 29.5 percent (55 million) people in Pakistan are living below the poverty line. Due to

this large number of below poverty line situation, parents are forced to send their children to

work in order to increase take-home income. According to a Hai et al. (2010), quality of

education is low, less number of jobs and lack of economic progress are the main causes of

child labor in fishing sector of Baluchistan province of Pakistan. Due to these causes, high

dropout and low literacy rates have been observed in the province.

1.5.2.3 Unpaid work plays vital role on attending the school and attainment.

1.5.2.4 Child work followed by education of parents, income of parents and locality of

school has a greater impact on outcome of school.

1.5.3 Schooling and Child Work in Pakistan

The mainstream education system in Pakistan is divided into pre-primary (UA-K), primary

education (class 1 to 5) of five years duration, secondary including middle classes (class 6

to 10) also of five years, higher secondary (class 11 to 12) for the duration of two years,

higher education (class 14 and above) normally two to five years or more duration in case of

PhD level, technical & vocational for the duration of six months to three years and deeni

madrasas. Primary education in rural areas in Pakistan is provided through government

schools, Private school system, Madrasas and NGO-run schools. According to Pakistan

Education Statistic (2016), Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) for primary schools (6-8 years at

National level) has increased to 55 percent in 2015-16 from 53 percent in 2014-15. The

10
Adjusted Net Enrolment Rate (ANER) for primary schools (Age 6-10 at National level)

increased to 77 percent in 2015-16 as compared to 72 percent in 2014-15. The GER for

middle level (Age 11-13 at National level) increased to 49 percent in 2015-16 as recorded

47 percent in 2014-15. The ANER (Age 11-13) increased to 32 percent in 2015-16 as

compared to 31 percent in 2014-15.

1.6 Statement of the Problem

While constructing an analytical structure for answering the basic question, why do children

work? It is beneficial to descend to the level where parents are forced to choose between

whether to send their child off to work or to school for study. It is commonly believed that

poverty urge the children to go for work rather than study. Parents at one hand send their

child to study and at other hand keep urge the children to go for work. While doing such

chores, usually child cannot go regularly to school or unable to pay full attention to study

and hence drop out of school permanently and join the work force. It is therefore, dire need

to study the impact of busying child in work on attendance at school and performance of

child in the school according to age group.

1.7 Objective of Study

Although research is legitimately active now, this is an area where policy is far ahead of

research. There is an utmost need to ascertain what practicable policies can be proved

efficient. This is influenced by apprehending the nature and causes of taking decision to

send the child to school or work. Nexus, this study tries to attain following objectives:-

a. Exploring the impact of child’s own and household characteristics, child

work and related socio-economic determinants on school enrollment and

analyzing the output of schooling.

11
 b. Measuring the performance of child in school and revealing schooling

outcome by scrutinizing the influence of factors to decide schooling or work.

1.8 Hypotheses

The following hypotheses are being tested in order to achieve the objectives:-

a. There is negative relationship between school enrolment and determinants of

decision of child being at school or otherwise.

b. There is negative relation between performance of child in the school,

schooling outcome and related determinants.

1.9 Significance of the Study

This study scrutinizes the influence of different explanatory variables such as child’s own

characteristics, parents and household characteristics, nature and status of work in which

both parent and child are engaged, provincial and regional differences. This study also

measures performance of child according to specific age group as a learning achievement

which is attributed as schooling outcome and analyzes impact of child work on performance

of child in the class as per age.

It is relevant to explore the effect that various characteristics have on diverse features of

child’s education in an effort to clear up the real reach this work has on child’s experience

from education and his / her development. Hence, this study pursues to explore how

different characteristics impact the academic capabilities of a child worker with the

perceptive of an educational involvement program.

12
Empirical analysis is now extremely vast, containing studies from a wide array of each and

every continent. A salient feature of these analyses is multiplicity of results generated. It is

uncertain whether this demonstrates range of child work experiences in different countries,

or it suggests flaws in methodology. This study tries to make sense of the mass of results,

drawing noticeable patterns that are policy relevant.

1.10 Organization of the Study

The remaining of the paper is organized as follows. Brief review of previous studies

conducted both at domestic and worldwide related to child work is presented in Chapter-2.

Chapter-3 is devoted to discuss theoretical and methodological framework, along with

econometric model and description of both dependent and explanatory variables, source of

gathering and sampling of related data being employed in proposed model. Detailed

analysis of results obtained from estimation and comprehensive discussion on empirical

analysis achieved from estimated results is being illustrated in Chapter-4. Conclusions from

what has been learnt from research work are being carried out along with policy

recommendations are being suggested in Chapter-5.

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 CHAPTER 2

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

In the last decade immense research has been conducted on child work / labor so a great

deal of literature review is available on the subject. The main findings associate child work

with large family size, low family income, higher costs linked to schooling, distance from

the school, parents’ employment status, lower parental education, child’s gender (as boys

are expected to earn for the family, while girls while at home doing domestic chores and

look after their younger siblings), child birth order (it has been observed that younger

siblings work less as compared to elders as they are already working), industrial distribution

within the country and the country’s wage distribution. In the succeeding paragraphs the

study illustrates contribution of different scholars to highlight the impact of child work and

education and educational attainment.

Bonnet (1993) put forth an argument stating that failure of prevailing educational system

provides imperative explanation for pervasiveness of child labor. When parents are unable

to provide formal education to their children, they opt for the informal education in terms of

work. The study only focuses on the decision of parent to send their child to study or work

while needs to explore other child’s own and socioeconomic determinants.

Bradleya and Lenton (1995) used duration modeling techniques to examine the magnitude,

timing, outcomes and determinants of the children of Britain out of school between the

period of 1985 and 1994. The study displayed that dropping out of schools was mainly

observed during the months of April and July. The study also revealed that because of

higher risk associated with employment and unemployment, the male drop outs cope better

14
as compared to the female drop outs. The study further evaluated that the children of

minorities are more probable to enroll in schools and have lower dropping out ratio than

their white counterparts. The study also highlighted how the young people coming from

high income households are liable to opt ‘high’ academic courses and are unlikely to drop

out, therefore suggesting suitable matches.

Strauss and Thomas (1995) stressed on the significance of parental education, they argued

that parental years of education play a noteworthy role in increasing the number of children

attending school, in turn reducing child labor. However, other socioeconomic determinants

and educational outcome are also needs to be accounted for.

Baland and Robinson (2000) elaborated how the children that work do not invest in human

capital that renders them useful in the future. Knowing that current family income is low

compared to expected income in times ahead, the households are expected to make an inter-

temporal shift in family’s resources. The study only explored relationship of family income

on child education however, other determinants needs to address.

Ray (2000) used PIHS data for Pakistan (1991) and PLSS data for Peru (1995) to explore

the Key determinants of working hours for children in Pakistan and Peru. He observed a

negative relationship between household poverty and years of schooling. When a Pakistani

family plunges to poverty, the possibility of child’s involvement outside increases. The

study is comparative analysis of two countries having different cultural and socio economic

factors and also needs to focus on educational outcome, educational systems and other socio

economic factors that influence on the child to study or otherwise.

Wahba (2000) defied world-wide belief of poverty being regarded as vital cause of child

labor and concluded that it was one of the main reasons to account for the perseverance of

poverty. Study revealed that children undertake different labors because of the occupations

15
of their parents and the attitude experiences associated with child labor. It was concluded

that the likelihood of children of such parents to go for child labor doubles, resulting in

multiplication of poverty, so it prevails within a family.

Bhalotra (2001) surveyed repercussions of child labor in Africa and Asia and observed that

poverty, income inequality, credit and labor market inadequacies, population growth and

social norms are main factors contributing to child labor, along with the impact of attained

years of education on child work immersion. This study compelled the formulation of some

new policy tools to lessen child labor, which comprised of pro-poor growth, poverty

mitigation, uplifting productivity, gender discrimination, opportunity expense and outcome

of schooling. However, there is need to focus on child and household characteristics.

Khan (2001) surveyed children working in auto workshops on the basis of socio-economic

contextual, left schools and was the reason for their exploitation. He concluded that 30

percent of out of school children are employed in auto workshops and most of these

children have not even completed primary level of education. The study only focuses on one

dimension of out of school children, while availability of school and schooling output are

also needs to be analyzed.

Choudhary and Khan (2002) conducted a study in Dera Ismail Khan to distinguish the

relationship between working of child and various variables like fertility, poverty and

literacy rate. The study found that children worked due to financial issues of family and

concluded that their parents believed that substandard level of education would not add

ability of their child to enhance productivity. The study addresses two motives of out of

school children, while child’s own and socioeconomic characteristics needs to be focused.

Khan (2003) conducted a sample survey in two districts of two provinces of Pakistan and

explored whether child labor can be effectively reduced by educational reforms, household

16
income, parents’ education, parents’ unemployment and demographic factor and up to what

extent these factors can lessen child labor. He observed a negative relation between

education level of head of the household and child labor. There is more likelihood of a child

to be in state of no school no work with an increase in birth order. Furthermore, if mother

has a job and earns a good living, it imparts a negative effect on no school no work activity.

Hazarika and Bedi(2003) employed PIHS data and applied Tobit, Heckman Two steps,

Probit model to survey schooling as policy variable, making use of the intra household

(within) child labor supply and extra household (outside) child labor supply concept. The

study finds positive relation between child work and cost associated with children

schooling, to parents extra household labor and schooling act as a substitute.

Heady (2003) debated that school attendance and enrollment are not ideal means to measure

the negative impact child labor has on learning as these factors only indicate the amount of

hours spent in school, not academic outcomes. The study monitored the effect of education

on child working for two main reasons. Firstly, education is being considered vital in order

to improve the quality of human life specifically in developing countries. Secondly, the

effect child labor has on education is clearly imminent and it also has been proved from the

household survey data regarding school attendance.

Ray and Lancaster (2003) utilized SIMPOC data, obtained from seven Afro-Asian countries

and examined effect of work on children aged between 12 and 13 years. This study does not

involve the causes of child work, instead it concerns with how child labor affects the child’s

leaning and how it makes use of urban/rural segregation to regulate the endogeneity of child

labor. The study concerned itself with the strong evidence of negative effect of work on

academic performance, proof that boys do worse than girls in school and that children from

female headed families exhibit worse academic performance than other children.

17
Amin et al. (2004) observed that when households are going through financial issues they

are unable to endure schooling expenses of their children rather it becomes a luxury which

they cannot pay for. Study examined that parent cannot afford to pay expenditures at school

and also letting the children to leisure as it becomes a luxury, whereas, missing other factors

like child’s own characteristic and outcome of schooling.

Orazem and Gunnarsson (2004) examined the effect of child labor and other socio

economic, demographic and supply side variables on school attendance and academic

performance. Study concluded that children having poor performance in school entered the

labor market. They also discovered that child labor has the capability to harm the academic

outcomes of a child by reducing the time spent on studies or by tiring the child to such an

extent that he is unable to make effective use of the school time.

Hazarik and Bedi (2006) exposed a positive relation between schooling cost and child labor,

while revealed negative relation between schooling cost and enrollment. Study concluded

that child labor might be battled by bringing change in social norms, access of education to

everyone, improving quality of education and by affirming compulsory schooling. The

study conducted in rural areas of northern India and inspected trade-off between schooling

expense on child’s inclinations to work and attend school, however, important factors such

as child’s own and household characteristics needs to be included.

Shafiq (2007) examined schooling of households and working of child resolutions in rural

areas of Bangladesh. The study demonstrated that poverty dissuaded a family from enrolling

a child in a school, therefore encourages the practice of child labor with no gender

difference. Furthermore, higher child wages also add to this practice of child labor. There

needs to be inclusion of schooling outcome and performance of child in the school.

18
Khanam and Ross (2008) analyzed the determinants of send child to school and for

working, merging schooling and working or doing none of the two, for Bangladeshi

children. They monitored the school’s attendance as an indicator of the time given to

schooling by child.

Mazhar (2008) employed human capital development and analytical concept of factors of

demand-supply of child labor to focus on effectual ways to guide child labor into education

system as an efficient mean to eliminate child labor and suggested that both socio-economic

variables are important determinants for preference between child labor and going to school.

Kulsoom (2009) revealed poverty as main cause of child work and showed positive

association of child work and child age. Study found that poor parent felt no benefits of

schooling of their children and send them for work although such children earn less income.

Other important factors like child’s own characteristics, availability of schools and

schooling outcome needs to be addressed.

Hai, Fatima and Sadaq (2010) investigated effect and the extent to which socioeconomic

and demographic factors led to the occurrence of child work in fishing related professions in

the province of Baluchistan. They reported low quality of education, lesser job opportunities

and lack of development were major reasons of child work, instead of poverty.

Khanam and Ross (2011) evaluated schooling outcome and academic achievement by using

“schooling-for-age” and revealed that studying in school and obtaining normal grades was

lower for children work while studying in Bangladesh. The study further observed that

school attendance and grades had been affected from gender discrimination, presence of a

school, education and income of parent.

19
Holgado et al. (2014) made use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to study the effect of

various child labor variables on academic performances in Columbia. The researchers

concluded that working of child not only displayed short term or intermediate effects on the

child but had long lasting effects on their lives too. The study highlights that conditions at

work, working hours per week and morning work schedule discouraged the educational

performance of child laborers.

Meyer et al. (2015) examined academic achievements of both female and male students

affected from child work using surveys of 3302 families conducted in the Colombian

Caribbean Coast. The study found that different variables affected the academic

achievements of boys and girls students and suggested to take different treatment for both

gender to eliminate the child labour incidence. However, school attainment and schooling

output are also needs to be considered.

Shaikh et al. (2015) conducted a study at menial labor venues such as auto-workshops,

restaurants, hotels, repairing shops and carpet manufacturing warehouses in Quetta

Pakistan. The study exposed that financial insecurity faced by the families and financial

constraints of their parents are major factors behind child labor and children not attending

school, meanwhile some other noteworthy factors were not taken into consideration.

Sajid and Ahmed (2018) explored that poverty is the main cause of child work in Pishin and

Quetta districts of Pakistan and reveals gender biasness in education of children, moreover

young children are found in schooling while elder children are likely to engage in schooling

and work together. However, study worked in two districts of one province of Pakistan.

20
 CHAPTER 3

DATA AND METHODOLOGY

This chapter constitutes of five parts. First and second part elaborates theoretical and

methodological framework on which present study is based upon, third part refers to

methodology, information concerning data and its sources being employed in this research

work that will be implemented, forth part involves econometric model of this research work,

while fifth part elaborates the narrative of both, dependent and explanatory variables that

are being used for analysis of child work and other characteristics on attending the school

and performance of child in the class.

3.1 Theoretical Framework

This part explains various models and hypothesis such as Human Capital Models, illustrates

different techniques employed for measuring purposes and models such as, how to measure

academic achievement relative to age by using Patrinos and Psacharopoulos (1997) and Ray

and Lancaster (2005), likelihood of child’s admission in school and logistic approximation

procedure to calculate dependent variable.

3.1.1 Human Capital Model by Becker and Lewis (1973)

In the human capital model given by Becker and Lewis (1973), it is depicted that parents

make the most of their utility taking, number of member children, human capital of

children, leisure of family members, depletion of goods, income and time limitations for

individuals and production functions, into consideration. Here it is assumed that the children

21
are not making independent choices for themselves, instead they are being controlled by

their parents. Hence, any decision concerning whether the child will get to study or work

can be elaborated by a model of parental decisions. Parents not only value existing family

consumption but they also review human capital achievement displayed by the children.

However, a trade-off exists between existing consumption (that is acquired by engaging a

child in productive activities) and human capital buildup (sending child to school). If a child

is engrossed in work, he/she will receive less education, this point to lower salaries in the

future. The human capital growth of children is a proliferating function of schooling. The

family’s verdict concerning child’s schooling and work can be studied by method given

below. Presume that parents take full advantage of a utility function:

U = f (S, L, C, Z) (3.1)

Where schooling of child is S and leisure time given for child is L, C is the consumption of

composite goods, Z symbolizes individual, family and community characteristics (such as,

education, nature of work and parents age may influence the anticipated usefulness of

sending their children to school) that alter utility function.

If T is the total time available to a child, a part of which he/she spends on schooling (S),

work (W) and leisure that is neither studying nor going to work (L). Then time constraint is:

T=S+W+L (3.2)

The household budget constraint is:

C + PsS = V + PwW + Y (3.3)

Where value of expenditure is normalized to one. Ps is for schooling expenses which not

only represents educational inputs such as textbooks, tuition fee and stationery but also

22
school travelling expenses. V is the income coming to family from resources other than

labor. Y is other source’s income apart from child work and Pw is the children/s income

rate. Income constraint of the family is obtained from (3.2) and (3.3) as follows:

C + PsS + PwW = V + PwT + Y (3.4)

Make the most of the parents’ utility function (3.1) subject to constraint (3.4) guides to the

first-order conditions:

UC(.) / US = 1 / PS

(3.5)
UW(.) / UW = 1 / PW

UL(.) / UL = 1 / PL

Which demonstrates that parent will even out marginal rates of substitution observed

between consumption and sending school, go to work and leisure with relative prices.

The maximization of the utility function results in a set of reduced-form demand functions

for child’s schooling, labor, leisure other activities:

J = f (PS, PW, Z, V); and J = S, W, L (3.6)

The variables taken into account in equation (3.6) manipulate parental verdicts concerning

the time child spends in school and work.

3.1.2 Human Capital Model by Becker (1994)

As this study evaluates the children’s enrollment in schools, their academic progress and the

effect work has on both listed factors, so the study analysis is centered in theoretical

framework given by Becker (1994) in human capital model, it declares that investment in

23
the human capital accelerates the productivity displayed by the individual via education and

skills. Therefore investment is made in human capital to improve the productivity, causing

an increase in the income. Following equation exhibits the human capital model:-

𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑖 = 𝛼 + 𝑋𝑗 𝛽𝑗 + 𝜀𝑖 (3.7)

Where dependent variable, lnY is log of yearly income of ith household member, 𝑋𝑗

demonstrates characteristics such as gender, age, employment status, region/province and

education level, these characteristics are considered to influence income and 𝜀𝑖 is error term.

HCT is the cost and subsidy analysis of investment in education, wherein education is

investment human capitalism, as education generates advanced level of productive

expertise. However, Jensen and Nielsen (1997) debated on human capital theory being

unsuitable to explain the earnings of the children. Moreover, to them it is effective for child

labor, meaning human capital variables impart a negative effect on the likelihood of a child

to attend school. However, school expenditure and enrollment in schools has positive

relationship, therefore poor parents lacking money will not send their children to school if

schooling is expensive.

3.1.3 Schooling for Age

A universally measure of schooling attainment is “schooling-for-age”. This computes

schooling accomplishment relative to age. “grade-for-age” or “schooling-for-age” was

employed by Patrinos and Psacharopoulos (1997) and Ray and Lancaster (2005) to calculate

schooling outcome, school_age is given by:

school_age = (Years of schooling / age – E) * 100 (3.8)

Here E signifies the school entry age for a specific country. Therefore, school_age will have

values in the range of 0 (for the children that never got to attend school) to 100 (indicative

24
of school attendance for maximum number of years to-date). If the score comes out to be

less than 100, it serves as an indication that child is “falling behind” in education.

Therefore, subnormal improvement in school system is indication by a score under 100. To

follow, Patrinos and Psacharopoulos (1997) and Ray and Lancaster (2005), school_age is

transformed into a dichotomous variable that has value 1 if a child displays below average

progress (i.e. school_age, 100), that is falling behind in education system, and 0 otherwise.

3.2 Methodological Framework

Methodological framework enunciates the probability (P) of a child being admitted to

school or falling behind in grades as a function of a set of regressors as:

Pj = 1 / 1 + e -∑βixi (3.9)

Here “j” accounts for either “enrolled in school” or “falling behind”. A wide array of

characteristics associated with child, parental, household and community are covered by a

set of regressors. The coefficient are partial derivatives that suggest the trend of shift in the

probability of school enrolment (or falling behind in grades) relative to a unit increase in the

independent variable. The marginal effect’s magnitude is given by:

δPj / δXi = βiPj(1 - Pj) (3.10)

Where Pj denotes the dependent variable probability of the event, Xi to the ith independent

variable and βi to the logistic coefficient for the same variable.

3.3 Methodology

This part comprises of information related to data source, data sampling and estimation

methodology.

25
3.3.1 Data Sources

The present study utilizes data sets of Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES), that

was conducted by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Government of Pakistan in 2015-16,

it comprises of information concerning parent characteristics, household characteristics like

household size, children characteristics, family income, spending, consumption patterns,

regions, employment status and education level. Given data is based on entire households,

average number of individuals per household, average monthly earnings and expenditure

per household etc. or grass roots-level of each household and its family members.

3.3.2 Data Sampling

The study makes use of micro data of Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES)

operated by government of Pakistan, therefore this study is built on theory and literature to

resolve the research related queries.

Firstly, the study collected different HIES data files and selected relevant three data files

and merged them together, and utilized only most related variables to the study. In the

second step, data is sorted according to child characteristics, family characteristics and

provincial characteristics according to the study’s objective. Whereas in the third step, data

is inspected and data disregarding information is excluded for being of no use. At the end,

data of 36,087 household members was worthy of analysis.

The present analysis takes data of children aged 4 to 17, living in households where both

their parents are present, into consideration. The survey data also includes demographic

characteristics, socio-economic activities, provincial and regional differences that includes

parents information, their income, education level and job status, number of family

members and number of children in the house, whether child is son / daughter of household

26
or not, child belong to different areas and regions of Pakistan.

3.3.3 Estimation Methodology

Logistic (logit) estimation procedure introduced by Pohlman and Leitner in 2003 is

employed to measure both of the dependent variables of interest. The technique of simple

Logistic regression is used to eliminate the disadvantages of ordinary least-squares

regression if the dependent variables show a double result. Many research problems make

clear the prediction of dichotomous outcomes, that is, parent send their child to school or

not, whether child is performing well in accordance with age group or not, whether child

pay full attention on studies or not if child is working also in addition to schooling etc. In

short, if the dependent outcome is category but not qualitative that is numeric value that

represents a quality or category label, logistic regression is being employed for the analysis.

When there are two mutually exclusive categories is dependent variable, binary logistic

regression model may use. It fits a logistic model for a binary response by maximum

possibility and gives probability of a positive outcome of regressors. It finds which

variable(s) have effect on the likelihood dependent variable. Detail representation of logistic

estimation is enclosed in Appendix-I of the study.

This study prefers logistic regression analysis instead of Linear Probability Model which is

the form of using Ordinary Least Squire (OLS) regression with binary outcome variables, to

analyze conditional probabilities. The problem however, occurs when residuals violate the

OLS assumptions of normality and homoskedasticity which would give void standard errors

and hypothesis tests. Coefficients of logit model are being utilized for odd ratios estimation

of every independent variable. OLS regression is applied to wider range of research analysis

than discriminate analysis, whereas, logistic regression analysis is applied to estimate the

probability of event which is in binary form. Other related model could be probit model and

27
it depends upon the researcher to choose logit or probit model depending upon the nature of

study and variables being employed.

3.4 Econometric Model

To carry out the main analysis, this study employs two dependent variables, therefore,

following two regression equations are being used:-

Model-1 – child_sch (child at school) as dependent variable

child_sch = 𝛼 + β1 𝑐− 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘 + β2 𝑐_𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑖 + β3 𝑐_𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 + β4 𝑐_𝑎𝑔𝑒 + β5 𝑐_𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑠𝑞𝑟

+ β6 𝑓_𝑎𝑔𝑒 + β7 𝑓_𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑖 + β8 𝑓_𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖 + β9 𝑚_𝑎𝑔𝑒 + β10 𝑚_𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑖

+ β11 𝑚_𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖 + β12 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑝𝑐𝑒 + β13 ℎℎ_𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 + β14 𝑐ℎ_𝑛𝑜𝑖 + β15 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑖

+ β16 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖

(3.11)

Model-2 sch_age (school age) as dependent variable

sch_age = 𝛼 + β1 𝑐_𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘 + β2 𝑐_𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑖 + β3 𝑐_𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 + β4 𝑐_𝑎𝑔𝑒 + β5 𝑐_𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑠𝑞𝑟

+ β6 𝑓_𝑎𝑔𝑒 + β7 𝑓_𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑖 + β8 𝑓_𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖 + β9 𝑚_𝑎𝑔𝑒 + β10 𝑚_𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑖

+ β11 𝑚_𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖 + β12 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑝𝑐𝑒 + β13 ℎℎ_𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 + β14 𝑐ℎ_𝑛𝑜𝑖 + β15 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑖

+ β16 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖

(3.12)

In the above mentioned equation 3.11 (child_sch) and equation 3.12 (sch_age) signify

probability of logistic model. Whereas, α symbolizes intercept term, β1,…,β16, are variables’

coefficient. The characteristics related to child, parents, household and region are

represented by explanatory variables.

28
3.5 Variables Description

To assemble the study objectives and to answer the research related questions, this study

takes following two dependent variables into consideration;

1. Child’s school attendance (whether child is enrolled in school or not)

2. Child’s performance in school (schooling outcome, that is whether child is studying

in the class and obtaining normal grades in the class as per age group.

Attendance within the school is taken as dichotomous variable, where value is 1 if child is

admitted in school and 0 otherwise. The explanatory factors being employed are gender of

the child, relationship the child has with the head of the family, parental characteristics

(such as, parent age, education and employment status), family characteristics (for instance,

number of siblings. Total number of family members, per capita expenditures), province

and region.

Following Maitra (2003), this study employs log of per capita household expenditure as

proxy for permanent income of household. The study considers child as a worker only if

work has been reported as main activity of the child and takes value 1 if primary activity of

child is working and 0 otherwise.

Table-3.1 given below offers concise explanation of variable codes, brief description and

definitions of dependent variables and different characteristics (like child’s own, parents of

the child, household and provincial and regional) containing explanatory variables being

employed in present analysis.

29
 Table-3.1: Variables Description
Variable Code Variable Description Definition
Child Characteristics
Child_sch Child attending the Dependent variable. It takes value 1 if child is
school going to school for study, 0 otherwise.
Sch_age Progress of child in Dependent variable. It takes value 1 if child has
school according to age below normal progress; i.e less than 100
(equation for sch_age), 0 otherwise.
c_genderi Gender of child 1 if gender of child is male, 0 otherwise.
c_relationi Relationship of child 1 if relation of child to head of family is
with head of household son/daughter, 0 otherwise.
c_age Age of the child Continuous variable.
c_agesqr Square of age of child Continuous variable.
c_work Whether child is 1 if child works, 0 otherwise.
working or not
Parents Characteristics
f_age Age of the father Continuous variable.
f_edni Education level of Factor variable. 0 if father’s education level is
father not known (base), 1 if father’s education is less
than class1 and2 if father is educated.
f_empli Employment status of Factor variable. 0 if employment status is not
father known/not working (base), 1 if self-employed,
2 if paid employed, 3 if contributing family
worker and 4 if engaged in agriculture.
m_age Age of the mother Continuous variable.
m_edni Education level of Factor variable. 0 if mother’s education is not
mother known (base), 1 if mother’s education is less
than class 1 and2 if mother is educated.
m_empli Employment status of Factor variable. 0 if mother is house wife/ not
mother working (base), 1 if mother is self employer, 2
if paid employed, 3 if contributing family
worker and 4 if engaged in agriculture.
Household Characteristics
Log_pce Log of per capita Per capita household expenditures (dividing
expenditure annual expenditure of household by number of
family members in a household).
hh-size Household size Number of family members in a household
ch_noi Number of children Factor variable. 1 if household has 1 child, 2 if
members in a household has upto 5 children, 3 if household
household has more than 5 children.
Regional and Provincial Characteristics
Provincei Belonging of child to Factor variable. 1 if child lives in KP, 2 if
any of provinces of belongs to Punjab, 3 if lives in Sindh and 4 if
Pakistan resides in Baluchistan (taking as base).
Region Child lives in rural or 1 if child lives in urban area, 0 otherwise.
urban areas

30
 CHAPTER 4

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Prime objective of this study is to determine association between children studying at

school, child work and performance of children at school using micro survey data for the

children between age of 5 to 17 years. The study uses data set of Household Integrated

Economic Survey (HIES) of Pakistan for the year 2015-16 for estimation purposes. There

are different files in HIES datasets which contain specific information in each file, however,

most relevant information have been gathered by merging different files and thus data

relating to children of age 5 years to 17 years has been selected for final estimation.

This study explores the impact of different determinants such as child’s own characteristics

(age, child work, performance at school, relationship with head), household characteristics

(number of members of the household, number of children in a household and per capita

expenditure), parents characteristics (age, education and employment status of both father

and mother), regional and provincial differences etc on enrollment of children in school and

academic performance according to age. To meet the objectives, this study adopts logistic

regression technique for estimating the impact of explanatory variables on dependent

variables in the model.

First section of this chapter covers cross tabulation examination of different characteristics,

while second section presents descriptive analysis / summary statistics and third section

deals with estimation results of logistic regression technique. Along with enumeration of

estimation results, detail econometric and economic interpretation of estimated results is

also illustrated in third part of this chapter.

31
4.1 Profile of Cross Tabulation Analysis

Cross tabulation examination of important analysis from HIES (2016) is being presented in

succeeding paragraphs in order to streamline the path to reach concrete findings and

ultimately meet the objectives of research.

4.1.1 Child labour and School Attendance

Table-4.1.1 below shows the incidence of children studying in school and whether they are

engaged in any sort of work.

Table-4.1.1: The incidence of Child labour and School Attendance

children studying in Child Work

educational institute
No Yes Total

Not at school 2,626 1,263 3,889

At school 31,834 364 32,198

Total 34,460 1,627 36,087

Source: HIES Data (2016).

Table-4.1.1 shows that overall, 1627 children of age 10 years and above have been reported

to engage in child work. Out of which, there are 364 children engaged in different types of

work along with studying at school and 1263 working children are not studying in schools.

Article 7(b) of International Labor Organization (ILO) Convention Number 138 lays down

only those children of age 12 years of above can be engaged on such work which does not

hinder these children to attend school and performs in accordance to their age. As depicts

from table 4.1.1, large number of children that is 3889 above 10 years of age have been

reported out of school because of work as well as not only doing any work nor enrolled in

the school. The most powerful reason behind such number of dropout from school is that

32
child cannot take his / her own independent choice to go to school or go for work, rather

parents of child decide to send child to school or dropping out. Parents of child decide to

send their child to school keeping in mind choice of current consumption and accumulation

of human-capital that is send to child to school or send to labor market for work.

4.1.2 Age wise Distribution of Children Engaged in Work and Study

Table-4.1.2 below illustrates status of children studying in schools, whether work or

engaged in both work and study at a time as well as if engaged in work what sort of work

these children are performing at different stages of age.

Table-4.1.2: Age wise Employment Status, Child Work and Children Studying

Child Self Paid Contributing Family Agriculture

age Employer Employee Work
Not Studying
10 10 9
11 7 2 2
12 27 21 2
13 1 38 30 2
14 2 81 61 5
15 10 146 85 3
16 8 220 90 5
17 14 265 113 4
Studying in School
10 1 6 21 1
11 5 13 2
12 2 12 34 1
13 2 10 20 4
14 3 16 34 2
15 1 21 26 7
16 5 23 36 4
17 3 23 21 5
Source: HIES Data (2016).

33
Table-4.1.2 shows that 364 children of age group 10 and 17 are working while attending

school. Majority of these 364 children are contributing family work and paid employees.

Table-4.1.2 also illustrates that 17 children having self business while studying, 116 are

paid employees, 206 children are contributing family work and 26 children are engaged in

agriculture work along with studying in the school. While majority of the children who

work and not enrolled in schools are engaged as paid employees and contributing family

worker. It has also been revealed that majority of children of age 14 years and above who

are engaged in labor force do not go to school and working as paid employees or

contributing family work.

4.1.3 Provincial Distribution

Table-4.1.3 below demonstrates status of children belonging to different provinces of

Pakistan, their status being at school and whether engaged in work or not.

Table-4.1.3: Province wise Distribution of Children Studying and Work

Children work and studying in school

Province Not at school at school
Not work Work Not work Work
KP 586 212 8,146 59
Punjab 1,118 604 13,756 98
Sindh 662 354 7,000 183
Baluchistan 260 93 2,932 24

Source: HIES Data (2016).

Table-4.1.3 shows that out of 364 children working while study, 59 children live in KP

province, 98 children from Punjab, 183 children live in Sindh and 24 children belong to

Baluchistan. However, 1263 children in all the provinces have been reported as working

34
children who are not enrolled in schools. On the other hand, there are large number of

children (2626) in all the provinces who are either not studying nor working, which depicts

that these children are working household chores.

4.1.4 Province wise Distribution of Parent Education and Child Work

Table-4.1.4 below portraits status of different levels of education of parent belonging to

different provinces of Pakistan and their children being engaged in child work.

Table-4.1.4 Province wise Distribution of Parent Education and Child Labor

Parent Education level KP Punjab Sindh Baluchistan

not known 158 325 195 74

less than 1 - 6 - -

Educated 113 371 342 43

Source: HIES Data (2016)

Table-4.1.4 depicts that majority of the children participated in labor force attributes to

those parents belonging to having no education or education level has not been reported. A

large number of educated parents though might be having less than grade 10 education level

engage their children in labor force participation in all the provinces of Pakistan. Such

parents do not consider education of their children necessary, especially female children to

go to school because of multiple reasons which includes cultural, religious and socio-

economic. However, it has been revealed that as education level of parents improves

tendency of child work and out of school children gradually decreases.

4.1.5 Progress of Child at School

Table 4.1.5 below illustrates progress of child at school according to age group. It has been

deduced that 63 percent children are not performing normal at school and studying below

35
grades. On the other hand, 37 percent children have been reported to perform normal in the

class and obtained normal grades according to their age. The reasons for this mass below

normal grade performance might be attributed to child’s own characteristics, parents

characteristics, regional differences including rural-urban and child work etc.

Table-4.1.5: Progress of Child at School

Progress of Child at School Number of Children Percentage

Normal 11,964 37.16

Below Normal 20,234 62.84

Total 32,198 100.00

Source: HIES Data (2016).

4.1.6 Progress of Child at School, Child Work and School Attendance

Table-4.1.6 below shows progress of child in school both while at work and only at school.

Table-4.1.6: Progress of Child at School, Child Work and School Attendance

Progress of Child at School At school

Not at Work At Work Total
Normal 11,845 119 11,964
Below Normal 19,989 245 20,234
Total 31,834 364 32,198

Source: HIES Data (2016).

As evident from Table-4.1.6 that number of children below normal performance at school is

more than normal performance children both at work and not at work. Progress of children

studying in school while work is also not satisfactorily, as more number of these children

performs below normal progress in class. Although, child work incidence while studying at

school is very low as only 364 children in Pakistan have been reported. However, below

36
normal progress of not working children is alarming as evident from table-4.1.5 and table

4.1.6 above, that in turn adds less educated, unskilled and nonproductive labor force.

4.1.7 Age wise Performance of Child at School

Table 4.1.7 below shows age wise performance of child at school.

Table-4.1.7: Age wise Performance of Children at School

Status of child study and Progress at School

Child Age
Normal Below Normal

4 - 1,130

5 - 2,259

6 1,922 770

7 1,288 1,707

8 1,085 2,164

9 770 1,762

10 981 2,091

11 586 1,460

12 791 2,140

13 739 1,396

14 750 1,468

15 1,324 715

16 992 625

17 736 547

Total 11,964 (37.16 percent) 20,234 (62.84 percent)

Source: HIES Data (2016).

As illustrated in table 4.1.7, progress of 33 percent children studying according to their age

is found as normal and progress of 57 percent children is found as below normal while

37
progress of 10 percent children cannot be ascertained due to not enrolled in school. It has

been deduced from table 4.1.7, that performance of children below 15 years of age is less as

these children are below the class of studying according to their age while 15 years and

above children are studying in the class as per their age.

4.1.8 Province wise Progress of Children at School

Table-4.1.8 below shows performance of children belonging to different provinces.

Table-4.1.8 Province wise Progress of Children at School

Progress of Child at School

Province
Normal Below Normal
KP 2,712 5,493
Punjab 5,665 8,189
Sindh 2,560 4,623
Baluchistan 1,027 1,929
Total 11954 12934

Source: HIES Data (2016)

It is evident from Table-4.1.8 that overall children belonging to all the provinces of Pakistan

are not studying in the class according to his / her age. This ratio might be attributed to

children belonging to rural and remote areas as well as comparatively less educated parents.

4.1.9 Province wise children progress at school and child work

Table-4.1.9 below shows performance of children at school belonging to different provinces

of Pakistan and engaged in child work. Performance of more number of children engaged in

different forms of work and belonging to all the provinces of Pakistan at school illustrates

that is these children are not studying in the class according to his / her age.

38
Table-4.1.9 Province wise Incidence of Child Work and School for Age Progress

Child Work and School for Age Progress

Province
Normal Below Normal

KP 13 46

Punjab 45 53

Sindh 52 131

Baluchistan 9 15

Total 119 245

Source: HIES Data (2016)

4.2 Descriptive Analysis

Table 4.2.1 illustrates summary statistics of dependent and explanatory variables being used

in the model. There are two entries show in the table which are arithmetic means and

standard deviations. As this study employs two dependent variables, first dependent variable

that is child_sch consists of 36,087 sample observations while second dependent variable

sch_age contains 32,198 sample observations by excluding those children who are not

studying at school.

Table-4.2.1 Summary Statistics

Variable Mean Std. Dev.

Child Characteristics
Child_sch 0.8922327 0.3100906
Sch_age 0.6284241 0.4832334
child_gender
Female 0.4503561 0.4975363
Male 0.5496439 0.4975363
child_relation- son/daughter 0.8348436 0.3713268
child_age 10.65846 3.778087
Childage_sqr 127.8764 82.11129
Child_work 0.0450855 0.2074945

39
Parents Characteristics
father_age 46.91972 11.10097
father_education
less than one 0.0012747 0.0356806
Educated 0.695098 0.4603723
father_employment
self employed 0.2532768 0.4348941
paid employed 0.5184138 0.4996677
Contributing family worker 0.001247 0.0352912
Agriculture 0.1087649 0.3113484
mother_age 41.41793 11.75144
mother_education
less than one 0.0006651 0.0257805
Educated 0.4037742 0.49066
mother_employment
self employed 0.0124422 0.1108498
paid employed 0.1008673 0.3011572
Contributing family worker 0.0618782 0.2409376
Agriculture 0.0175687 0.1313791
Household Characteristics
children_member
1 child 0.0444481 0.2060914
up to5 children 0.6790534 0.4668468
More than 5 children 0.2764985 0.4472724
household_size 8.408042 3.993193
log_percapita expenditure 10.7008 0.5340499
Per capita expenditure 52118.32 37834.39
Province
Kp 0.2494804 0.4327183
Punjab 0.4316236 0.4953095
Sindh 0.2272009 0.4190293
Baluchistan 0.0916951 0.288599
Region
Rural 0.3047081 0.4602901
Urban 0.6952919 0.4602901
Source: Author’s own calculation using HIES data (2016).

40
Description of main findings relating to children, parent, household, provincial and regional

characteristics are elaborated in succeeding paragraphs.

4.2.1 Child Characteristics

Analysis of this study contains sample of 36,087 children of age 5 years to 17 years. There

are 55 percent male and 45 percent female children, out of which 83 percent are son /

daughters of head of household. While 89 percent children are attending the school, the

incidence of child work is found to be 4 percent.

4.2.2 Parents Characteristics

Average age of father is 47 years and mother is 41 years. Percentage of less than class 1 and

others type of education is very less. However, mothers are less educated than fathers, out

of which 70 percent fathers and 41 percent mothers are educated. 25 percent fathers and 1

percent mothers have self business, 52 percent fathers and 10 percent mothers are paid

workers, 6 percent mothers are contributing family workers while 11 percent fathers and

about 2 percent mothers are engaged in agriculture sector.

4.2.3 Household Characteristics

Household families having one child are 4 percent, 68 percent having up to 5 children,

while 28 percent having more than 5 children. Average household size is found to be 8.4

household members and average per capita household expenditure is Rs. 52118 per year.

4.2.4 Provincial Distribution

25 percent children are residing in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, 43 percent live in Punjab, 23

percent live in Sindh while 9 percent belong to Baluchistan provinces.

41
4.2.5 Regional Differences

About 30 percent children are taken from rural area and 70 percent children from urban area

are including in this analysis from all four provinces of Pakistan.

4.3 Estimation Results

As this study employs two dependent variables for estimation, therefore, two separate

models are being analysed to determine the effect of different characteristics of explanatory

variables on each dependent variable. First model takes (child_sch) as dependent variable

while second model takes (sch_age) as dependent variable. Explanation of analysis of both

the models is appended in succeeding paragraphs.

4.3.1 Model-1 - Child Studying in School

First analysis is carried out on status of child studying in school (child_sch) as dependent

variable and estimation is made irrespective of gender, age difference etc. The study takes

into account different household, demographic, regional and provincial characteristics to

examine association of these characteristics on dependent variable. This analysis helps the

study to highlight how these explanatory variables determine the probability of deciding to

enrol a child in the school.

4.3.1.1 Estimation Results of Logistic Regression for Model-I

Model-1 describes impact of different characteristics on studying a child in the school.

Dependent variable in this model is child at school which is dichotomous in nature, so this

study runs logistic regression.

Results of estimation equation are as under:-

42
𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑_𝑠𝑐ℎ = -3.954 - 2.888c_work + 0.922male - 0.147son_daughter - 0.641age +

0.007age_sqr - 0.001f_age +0.197f_edn + 0.057f_empl- 0.001m_age-

0.051m_edn - 0.002m_empl + 1.169log_pce + 0.010hh_size + 0.101ch_no-

0.092province + 0.143urban

Coefficient values of estimation results reveal that impact of male children is positive on

school attendance, as well as impact of educated father, employed father, per capita

household expenditures, family size, number of children and children living in urban areas

are also found to be positive on child enrollment in school. On the other hand, impact of

child being son/daughter, child age, working child, father age, mother characteristics and

provincial differences has been found negative on child being at school for study.

Estimated results of logistic regression relating to model 1 are appended in table-4.3.1.1.

Children characteristics and provincial / regional differences show significant association of

child being enrolled in school at 1 percent significant level, whereas, parent and household

characteristics show mixed trend of association at 1 percent, 5 percent and 10 percent

significant level.

As explained in preceding paragraphs, dependent variable is model-1 is child at school,

which is dichotomous in nature, so this study takes marginal effects which shows the effect

of a 1-unit change in explanatory variables of the model. In model-1, both factor and

continuous types of variables are being employed, therefore, marginal effect for factor

variable is the difference in predicted probability, while for continuous variables marginal

effect calculates partial derivative of inverse logistic function.

Explanation of probability / likelihood for decision of a child at school is described is

succeeding paragraphs.

43
Table-4.3.1.1: Logistic Regression Analysis Child at School

Child_sch Coef.(t-values) Marginal Effect p-value

Children Characteristics
child_work -2.8886*** (-40.05) -0.1772 0.000
Male (female as base) 0.922*** (20.27) 0.05662 0.000
Son/daughter (others as base) -0.147** (-1.99) -0.0091 0.047
c_age -0.641*** (-9.01) -0.0394 0.000
c_agesqr 0.007*** (2.64) 0.00044 0.008
Parent Characteristics
f_age -0.001 (-0.22) -0.0003 0.826
f_edn (uneducated / not known 0.197*** (8.40) 0.0122 0.000
edn as base)
f_empl (unemployed as base) 0.057*** (2.60) 0.0035 0.009
m_age -0.001 (-0.52) -0.0001 0.605
m_edn (uneducated / not -0.051** (-2.27) -0.0032 0.023
known edn as base)
m_empl (housewife / -0.002 (-0.11) -0.0002 0.915
unemployed as base)
Household Characteristics
log_pce 1.169*** (21.58) 0.0718 0.000
hh_size 0.010 (1.29) 0.0007 0.198
ch_no (1 child as base) 0.101* (1.93) 0.0062 0.054
Provincial and Regional
Province (Baluchistan as base) -0.092*** (-3.84) -0.0057 0.000
urban (rural as base) 0.143*** (2.82) 0.00876 0.005
Constant -3.954***
Number of observations 36087
Mean dependent variable 0.892 Pseudo r-squared 0.387
Chi-square 9550.649 Prob> chi2 0.000
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Source: Author’s own calculation from HIES Data (2016).

44
4.3.1.1.1 Children Characteristics

There are both types of explanatory variables for children characteristics, that is

dichotomous (childwork, gender and relation) as well as continuous variables (child age,

age square). In Table-4.3.1.1 above, negative 0.1772 unit marginal value of working

children shows that working children are less likely to attend the school. The effect of child

work is highly significant on school enrollment and t-value depicts that as compared to non-

working children, 40.05 units less number of working children go to school. Positive

marginal value of male shows that with each unit increase of children reach to school age,

probability of male children to be enrolled in school increases 0.0567 units. Being a

son/daughter of the household head, it is likelihood that 0.0091 unit negative change occurs

on school enrollment. With 1 unit probable positive change in age of the child results in

0.0394 units less likely to continue their study in school.

So study finds that more number of male children enrolled in schools with less number of

being son/daughter of head of household, drop out / study as well as work ratio increases as

age of child increase and less number of working children go to school. Most of the

estimation results of children characteristics are consistent with imperial analysis conducted

by Ray (2000), Khan (2003), Lancaster & Ray (2005), Mazhar (2008), Kulsoom (2009),

Brown (2009), Qureshi (2012), Qureshi et al. (2014) and Sajid & Ahmed (2018). However,

results are inconsistent with Khanam and Ross (2011) which shows positive association of

child being son/daughter of head of household to go to school, increase number of children

to go school as age increases.

4.3.1.1.2 Parent Characteristics

Parent characteristics also have two types of variables that is age of father and mother is

continuous while education and employment status of both father and mother are factor.

45
Age of parent does not impact on decision of their children to enroll in school, however,

negative marginal values of father and mother age depicts that with each unit increase in age

of parent, probability of children to send at school decreases by 0.0003 and 0.0005 units

respectively. Education of father and mother plays significant impact on child being

enrolled in school. If father is educated, it is likelihood that 0.0122 unit more children of

that household are studying at school, while mother’s education plays negative effect on

sending child to school. Effect of father of child is employed play significant positive

impact on child being studying in the school, as probability of children studying in school

whose fathers are engaged in any sort of work increases 0.0035 units.

So it reveals that educated and working fathers send their children to school for study.

Results are consistent with Ray (2000), Lancaster and Ray (2005), Mazhar (2008), Brown

(2009), Khanam and Ross (2011), Qureshi (2012) and Sajid & Ahmed (2018), however,

results elaborates that chances of children enrolled at school decrease in case of educated

and working mother which are inconsistent with above referred empirical studies. The

reason for this incoherent result is that, in Pakistan mostly household decisions are being

taken by male head of the family. The study finds that less number of children go to school

when their parent become elder, however, it is inconsistent with empirical analysis of

Kulsoom (2009) for Pakistan and Khanam and Ross (2011) for Bangladesh, which states

that number of children being enrolled in schools increases with age of parents as income of

the family increases with age of parent increases which in turn results sending their children

to school. The contracted results from Kulsoom (2009) are probably because she only

analyzed one district (that is Rawalpindi) and this study takes whole country into

consideration and there are more chances that comparatively old age parents might think

that their children would take part in economic activities to increase household income in

order to meet needs of current consumption.

46
4.3.1.1.3 Household Characteristics

Household characteristics show positive impact on child being at school. Per capita

expenditure of a household which shows disposable income available with household

depicts that with each unit increase in per capita expenditure, probability of 0.0718 units

more children are at school for study and it has significant positive impact towards school

enrolment. These results are quite consistent with previous studies conducted both at

Pakistan and international background such as Khanam and Ross (2011), Qureshi (2012),

Qureshi et al. (2014) and Sajid & Ahmed (2018).

There is more likelihood that children of more family members go to school, marginal

effects show that relative to the reference category (less family members), probability of

child being enrolled increases by 0.07 percentage points. In this same way, as number of

children in a family increases, number of children studying in school also increases in

Pakistan by 0.0062 units. Both the results are consistent with the hypothesis that with

increase number of family members income of household increases and thus child go to

school for study rather work (Durrant and Arif, 1998), however, contradicted to previous

findings conducted by Khanam and Ross (2011) for Bangladesh and Sajid & Ahmed (2018)

for Pakistan.

4.3.1.1.4 Provincial and Regional Differences

Province is factor variable while regions is dichotomous variable. Study observes negative

marginal effect of province which reveals that with each unit increase of children between

age 5 to 17 years, probability that 0.0057 units less number of children belonging to other

provinces than Baluchistan are at school for study. However, there are more chances of

children live in urban area to enroll in school by 0.0088 units than children live in rural

areas. There are more number of schools and also located near to residence in urban areas,

47
households are relatively educated and having enough income to send their school along

with other socio economic factors that result higher enrolment rate in urban areas. These

results are consistent with previous studies conducted by Ray (2000), Lancaster and Ray

(2005), Mazhar (2008), Brown (2009), Khanam & Ross (2011), Qureshi (2012) and Sajid &

Ahmed (2018).

4.3.1.2 Decomposition Analysis

Estimation analysis can also be carried out by decomposing different characteristics into sub

groups and estimate exact impact of each factor on enrollment of child in school. In model-I

parent education, parent employment status and province are taken as factor variables.

Results of sub group analysis are illustrated in Table-4.3.1.2 below.

The estimation results of logistic regression on children characteristics reveals that 20

percent more male children are at school than female children in Pakistan. It is likelihood

that there are less likely chances of child being son/daughter of head of household decreases

by 1.73 percent on school enrollment. These decomposition estimation results illustrate

cultural and traditional customs of the society that parents pay more attention on male

children than female and are also in accordance with empirical research work.

Estimation results show that as education level of father increase, probability of children

being enrolled in school increases significantly as compared to less educated or uneducated

fathers. However, mother’s education level depicts negative chances of being enrolled her

children in the school as compared to less educated and uneducated mothers, which is

unlikely with empirical analysis that children enrolment likely increases when mothers are

educated. There is chance that large number of mothers could have more than primary level

education level but less than higher education and these mothers prefer current family

consumption pattern in mind than future human capital development.

48
Table-4.3.1.2: Logistic Regression Decomposition Analysis - Child at School
Child_school Coeff.(t values) P_Values Marginal Effect
Child Characteristics
child_gender (female as base)
Male 0.924*** (20.21) 0.000 0.0560
c_relation (others as base)
son/daughter -0.130* (-1.73) 0.084 -0.0078
c_age -0.642*** (-9.02) 0.000 -0.0393
c_agesqr 0.007*** (2.67) 0.008 0.0005
c_work -2.916***(-39.96) 0.000 -0.1785
Parent Characteristics
f_age -0.002 (-0.93) 0.353 -0.0002
f_edn (not known as base)
less than one -0.709 (-1.49) 0.136 -0.0573
Educated 0.411*** (8.68) 0.000 0.0261
f_empl (not working as base)
self employed 0.062 (0.71) 0.476 0.0037
paid employed -0.086 (-1.07) 0.286 -0.0054
Contributing family worker -0.131 (-0.22) 0.824 -0.0083
Agriculture 0.339*** (3.44) 0.001 0.0192
m_age -0.001 (-0.60) 0.546 -0.0001
m_edn (not known as base)
less than one 0.816 (0.75) 0.453 0.0403
Educated -0.111** (-2.41) 0.016 -0.0069
m_empl (house wife as base)
self employed 0.065 (0.34) 0.736 0.0040
paid employed 0.128* (1.74) 0.082 0.0077
Contributing family worker -0.066 (-0.75) 0.456 -0.0042
Agriculture -0.120 (-0.76) 0.450 -0.0076
Household Characteristics
log_percapita expenditure 0.008 (1.01) 0.310 0.0006
hh_size 1.162*** (21.15) 0.000 0.0711
ch_no (1 child as base)
Up to 5 children 0.327*** (3.67) 0.000 0.0213
More than 5 children 0.312*** (2.83) 0.005 0.0205
Province (Baluchistan as base)
Kp 0.198** (2.34) 0.019 0.0119
Punjab 0.019 (0.24) 0.808 0.0012
Sindh -0.060 (-0.69) 0.489 -0.0038
Region (rural as base)
Urban 0.177*** (3.44) 0.001 0.0111
Constant -3.900***
Number of obs 36,087 Chi-square 9600.57
Mean dependent var 0.892 Prob> chi2 0.000
Pseudo r-squared 0.389
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: Author’s own calculation using HIES data (2016).

49
Probability of children at school increases if the fathers are engaged in their own business or

related to agriculture, however, negative values of marginal effects reveals that there is less

likely to enroll their children if fathers are engaged as paid employees and contributing to

family workers. Contrary to fathers, if mothers are engaged in contributing to family

workers and agriculture, it is less likely to enroll their children in the school and more

chances of sent their children to schools if mothers are self employee and paid employees.

Children belonging to KP province have significant positive impact on enrolment at school.

About 2.34 percent more likely children are enrolled in schools of KP province than

Baluchistan. Positive probability of children living in Punjab province to be enrolled in

schools, however, there are less likely chances of children belonging to Sindh province to

be enrolled in schools as compared to other provinces. The main reason is attributed

towards data gathering difficulties as well as local traditional customs in far-off areas of

interior Sindh. There are 3.44 percent more children live in urban areas are at school as

compared to rural areas of Pakistan. The significant impact of local / urban difference of

children enrollment in schools is in accordance with empirical analysis conducted all over

the world which attributes less number and far off distance of schools from home as well as

quality of education, due to which parent prefer not to send their children to school.

4.3.2 Model-2- Child Progress at School according to Age

Second estimation is being carried out to analyse the impact of different demographic,

household, regional, provincial and child’s characteristics on performance of child in school

by taking (sch_age) as dependent variableand it takes value of 1 if child’s progress at school

is below normal that is child is studying below the class according to age and 0 if child

performance is normal at school. In this model 3889 children who are not studying in school

50
are being omitted and analysis on 32198 children is being carried out. Results of estimation

equation are as under:-

𝑠𝑐ℎ_𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 6.300 + 0.307c_work + 0.158male - 0.047son_daughter + 0.016age -

0.004c_agesqr - 0.008f_age - 0.169f_edn + 0.004f_empl - 0.002m_age -
0.039m_edn - 0.041m_empl – 0.437log_pce + 0.003hh_size + 0.064ch_no-
0.018province – 0.072urban

Table-4.3.2: Logistic Regression Analysis Progress at School according to Age

Sch_age Coef.(t-values) Marginal Effect p-value
Children Characteristics
Male (female as base) 0.158*** (6.58) 0.0348 0.000
Son/daughter (others as base) -0.047 (-1.14) -0.0104 0.254
c_age 0.016 (0.80) 0.0036 0.426
c_agesqr -0.004*** (-4.64) -0.0010 0.000
c_work 0.307*** (2.65) 0.0678 0.008
Parent Characteristics
f_age -0.008*** (-6.35) -0.0019 0.000
f_edn (no / not known as base) -0.169*** (-11.55) -0.0373 0.000
f_empl (unemployed as base) 0.004 (0.34) 0.0010 0.738
m_age -0.002** (-2.17) -0.0005 0.030
m_edn (no / not known as base) -0.039*** (-3.13) -0.0087 0.002
m_empl (unemployed as base) -0.041*** (-3.46) -0.0091 0.001
Household Characteristics
log_pce -0.437*** (-16.56) -0.0965 0.000
hh_size 0.003 (0.66) 0.0007 0.509
ch_no (1 child as base) 0.064** (2.06) 0.0142 0.040
Provincial and Regional
Province (Baluchistan as base) -0.018 (-1.31) -0.0039 0.191
urban (rural as base) -0.072** (-2.42) -0.0159 0.016
Constant 6.300***
Number of obs 32198
Mean dependent var 0.628 Pseudo r-squared 0.042
Chi-square 1789.72 Prob> chi2 0.000
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: Author’s own calculation using HIES data (2016).

51
Estimated results of logistic regression of model 2 as appended in Table 4.3.2 reveals that

children characteristics and provincial / regional differences show significant association of

below normal progress of child at 1 percent significant level, whereas, parent and household

characteristics show mixed trend of association at 1 percent, 5 percent and 10 percent

significant level. Explanation of probability / likelihood for performance of child at school

is described is succeeding paragraphs.

4.3.2.1 Children Characteristics

In Table-4.3.2, positive marginal value of male shows that probability of below normal

progress of male children in school is 0.0348 units increase with each unit increases of

children reach to school age. Being a son/daughter of the household head, it is likelihood

that 0.0104 unit negative change occurs on below normal progress which depicts that

son/daughter of household is studying in the class according to his / her age. With 1 unit

probable positive change in age of child results in 0.0036 units more likely to perform

below normal progress. Moreover, positive 0.0678 units marginal value of c_work, also

shows that working children are more likely to study below the class as per his / her age.

So it is evident that performance of male children in the school is fall behind from female

students and male are not studying in the class as per their age, which is probably due to

involvement of male children in outside school activities, paying more attention to games,

helping hands with their parents etc. However, if child is son/daughter of head of household,

he / she performs normal progress at school as parent pay more attention and think about

their own children, it also could be due to involvement of children other than son / daughter

in household chores or part time work etc. It also depicts that young children enter the

school at appropriate age and also not engage in child work so these children show normal

progress at school, however, as child grows elder, child falls below the class as per his / her

52
age which could be attributed to involvement in extra curriculum activities and child work

which negatively affects progress of child at school. Impact of child being involved in

working activities not only affects enrolment of child in school but also has strong influence

on progress of child in the class if the child in enrolled in the school. As evident from

significant positive marginal value, work hinders normal performance of child in the class

and these children remain below the class according to their age group or attain below

grades in the subjects. Most of the estimation results of children characteristics are

consistent with empirical analysis conducted by Ray (2000), Lancaster and Ray (2005),

Kulsoom (2009) and Khanam & Ross (2011).

4.3.2.2 Parent Characteristics

Age of parent has significant impact on performance of their children in school and

attainment of grades according to his / her age. Negative marginal values of father and

mother age depicts that with each unit increase in age of parent, probability of their children

remain fall behind his / her class by decreases by 0.0019 and 0.0005 units respectively. In

the same manner, education of parent also impacts positively on the progress of their

children at school, as reveals from negative marginal values of father and mother education

that probability of child performs below normal progress decreases by 0.0373 and 0.0087

units respectively. Probability of attaining normal grades and performs normal progress

decreases for the children whose fathers are engaged in any sort of work as depicts from

positive marginal value of 0.0010 units which shows that below normal progress of children

increases for working fathers, however, negative marginal value of 0.0091 units shows that

it is less likelihood that children of working mothers show below normal progress at school.

So it reveals that as parent become elder as well as educated parent pay more attention on

the progress of their children at school and resultantly child attain normal grades in the class

53
and shows normal progress. Education level of parents is not only major determinant of

sending the child to school but also play much important role on the performance of child in

the class. Although, working status of parent especially father has definite importance on

taking the decision of education of child, however, estimation result elaborates that children

of working fathers do not exhibit normal progress in the school. The reason could be either

spending more time to work in order to meet financial constraints or due to having more

number of children could not pay full attention to each child and such children do not

perform well in the class and remain fall behind their age group. The estimation result

shows that impact of working mother on attainment of normal grades in class is stronger

than working fathers. These results are consistent with Lancaster and Ray (2005) and

Khanam and Ross (2011).

4.3.2.3 Household Characteristics

Per capita expenditure of a household which is the proxy for household disposable income

increases the likelihood of attaining normal grades in the class and show normal progress at

school according to his / her age. Negative marginal value of (log_pce) shows that with

each unit increase in per capita expenditure of household, probability that child remain fall

behind normal progress decreases 0.0965 unit that is when disposable income / expenditure

of household increases it is less likely that children remain fall behind normal class

according to their age. There is more likelihood that progress of children household having

more family members and more number of children decreases. It is evident from positive

marginal value of household size and children members that children remain fall behind

class as per their age and perform below normal progress in the class by 0.0006362 and

0.0142102units respectively. These results are quite consistent with previous findings

conducted by Maitra (2003) and Khanam and Ross (2011).

54
4.3.2.4 Provincial and Regional Differences

As evident from Table-4.3.3 that there is no significant impact of province differences on

child progress at school, however, regional differences show significant impact on child

progress. It is less likely that children belonging to other provinces than Baluchistan

performs below normal progress in school as shown by negative marginal value. With each

increase unit of children at school, probability of below normal progress of other provinces

decreases by 0.0039 units that is children of other provinces attain normal grades in the

school than children of Baluchistan. There are fewer chances of children live in urban area

to perform below normal progress at school by 0.0159 units. These results are consistent

with previous studies conducted by Ray (2000), Lancaster and Ray (2005), Mazhar (2008),

Brown (2009), Khanam and Ross (2011), Qureshi (2012).

4.3.3 Decomposition Analysis – Progress of Child at School according to Age

Progress of child at school, performance of child in the class and school attainment can also

be analyzed by decomposing different characteristics into sub groups and estimate the exact

impact of each factor on child performance for attainment of grades in the class. Results of

sub group analysis are illustrated in Table-4.3.3.

Estimation results of subgroup analysis as per Table-4.3.3 reveals that 6 percent more male

children are not obtaining normal school grades than female and remain fall behind in the

class as per age. Marginal value illustrates the fact that there is more probability that male

children do not performance well in the class and would remain behind according to their

age group. There is less likely that child being son/daughter of head of household performs

below normal progress at school than other children. About 1 percent children being

son/daughter are more than other children to perform normal progress in the class. Results

are consistent with Khanam and Rose (2011).

55
Table-4.3.3: Decomposition Analysis-Progress of Child at School according to Age
sch_age Coeff. (t values) P_Values Marginal Effect
Child Characteristics
c_gender (female as base)
Male 0.145*** (6.01) 0.000 0.0319
c_relation (others as base)
son/daughter -0.041 (-0.97) 0.333 -0.0089
c_age 0.010 (0.47) 0.636 0.0021
c_agesqr -0.004*** (-4.35) 0.000 -0.0010
c_work 0.270** (2.31) 0.021 0.0572
Parent Characteristics
f_age -0.002 (-0.93) 0.353 -0.0022
f_edn (not known as base)
less than one 0.473 (1.16) 0.248 0.0899
Educated -0.315*** (-10.69) 0.000 -0.0685
f_empl (not working as base)
self employed -0.075 (-1.55) 0.122 -0.0165
paid employed -0.099** (-2.12) 0.034 -0.0218
Contributing family worker 0.493 (1.36) 0.174 0.0985
Agriculture 0.009 (0.16) 0.871 0.0021
m_age -0.002 (-1.54) 0.123 -0.0004
m_edn (not known as base)
less than one -0.307 (-0.72) 0.474 -0.0694
Educated -0.040 (-4.56) 0.119 -0.0089
m_empl (house wife as base)
self employed -0.033 (-0.30) 0.761 -0.0072
paid employed -0.020 (-0.48) 0.629 -0.0044
Contributing family worker -0.228*** (-4.50) 0.000 -0.0512
Agriculture -0.121 (-1.32) 0.185 -0.0268
Household Characteristics
log_pce -0.458*** (-17.16) 0.000 -0.1005
hh_size -0.004 (-0.92) 0.360 -0.0009
ch_no (1 child as base)
Up to 5 children -0.016 (-0.26) 0.791 -0.0036
More than 5 children 0.049 (0.68) 0.494 0.0107
Province (Baluchistan as base)
Kp 0.112** (2.34) 0.019 0.0241
Punjab -0.222*** (-4.90) 0.000 -0.0494
Sindh 0.005 (0.09) 0.927 0.0010
Region (rural as base)
Urban -0.048 (-1.57) 0.117 -0.0105
Constant 6.775***
Number of obs 32198 Chi-square 1935.02
Mean dependent var 0.628 Prob> chi2 0.000
Pseudo r-squared 0.046
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: Author’s own calculation using HIES data (2016).

56
Work affects the performance of child in the class, as evident from positive values of

coefficient and marginal effect value that there is 5.7 percent chances that working child

remain behind in the class and perform below if child is engaged any sort of work although

part time may be. This result is consistent with empirical findings conducted by Lancaster &

Ray (2005), Kulsoom (2009) and Khanam & Rose (2011).

Parent education plays significant impact on performance of child at school. As education

level of parent increases, it is more likelihood that performance of child at school increases

as compared to less educated or uneducated parent. However, less educated mother also

plays her role on normal performance of her child although not significant. About 11

percent more children perform better in class whose fathers are educated and about 5

percent more children whose mothers are less or some level of education perform better in

class and obtain normal school grades as per their age. The results are quite in accordance

with the fact that mothers especially less or uneducated mothers normally remain at home

and spent more time with children and look after their child, helping child to do homework

at the early stages of life / schooling. On the other hand higher educated women tend to

prefer their work rather than children educational matters. These results are consistent with

Haveman & Wolfe (1995) and Behrman & Rosenweig (2002), Lancaster & Ray (2005) and

Khanam & Rose (2011).

There are more chances that children of working parent perform normal at school, as

negative sign of coefficient and marginal effect reveals that there is more likelihood that

children perform better in the class if father has his own business or working as paid

employee and play below normal progress in the class if fathers are engaged in agriculture

or contributing to family workers. On the other hand child remains fall behind in the class

according to age group if mothers are working in any sort of category.

57
If number of children in a household is up to 5, children belonging to those household

perform normal progress at school and 0.26 percent more children are performing better

than base category. However, if more than 5 children are in a household, then performance

of children at school falls and children remain behind the class according to their age and

progress of about 0.7 percent children remain below normal than the base category. The

reason behind below performance is that as number of school going children increases, their

expenses on education increases and parent having low or nominal income face hardships to

bear their expenses, resultantly elder children has to go for work as part time which in turn

affects performance in the class. The results are consistent with Maitra (2003), Amin et al.

(2006), Khanam and Rose (2011).

Probability that Children belonging to Punjab province perform normal progress and about

5 percent more children are studying at school according to their age than Baluchistan.

However, children belong to KP and Sindh provinces perform below normal progress at

school. About 2.34 percent more likely children of KP province perform less than normal

progress than Baluchistan. These results are in contradiction to common belief that

Baluchistan is most deprived province in terms of low income and low literacy rate. The

reason could be attributed to increased income level during recent past, increasing number

of schools which encouraged the parent to send their children to school for study.

There are 1.57 percent more children belonging to urban areas perform normal progress at

school as compared to rural areas. The reasons for below normal progress of children

belonging to rural areas are no or less number of schools, if school present lack of teachers

and facilities, poverty and literacy rate of adult household. Results are consistent with Ray

(2000), Lancaster and Ray (2005), Mazhar (2008), Brown (2009), Khanam and Ross

(2011), Qureshi (2012).

58
 CHAPTER - 5

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusion

The objective of this study is to determine association between children studying at school,

their academic performance in the class according to age and incidence of child work using

micro survey data of Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) of Pakistan for the

year 2015-16. For this purpose, the study takes two dependent variables for estimation; first

dependent variable is (child_sch) and second is (sch_age) to determine performance of child

at school. Besides exploring the impact of child work on school enrollment and child

performance at school, this study also put emphasis on different determinants such as

child’s own characteristics, household characteristics, parent characteristics, regional and

provincial differences to analyze contribution of each sub level on children being enrolled in

school and obtains grades in class according to age.

Both the dependent variables of this study are dichotomous in nature, so this study adopts

logistic regression technique for estimating the impact of explanatory variables on each

dependent variable separately. As the study employs both factor and continuous types of

variables for the estimation purposes, hence marginal effect for factor variable depicts the

difference in predicted probability, while marginal effect for continuous variables calculates

partial derivative of inverse logistic function.

The study reveals that coefficients of most of the variables of all the characteristics are

significant at 1 percent level except few which are significant on 5 percent and 10 percent.

59
This shows that all the characteristics play significant role both in enrollment of children at

school and their performance in the class. Variables of child’s own characteristics are found

as most important determinants of child being enrolled at school.

Estimation results reveals probability that parent send their male children for studying at

school than female, however, it is likelihood that head of household sent less number of

their elder children (both son/daughter) to school for study. There are more chances that

work negatively affects enrollment of child at school as well as performance of child at

school due to which such children discontinue the study and enter in to full time labor force

or remains at home without work. Unlike educated mothers, there are more chances that

educated fathers enroll their child at school. It is probable that school enrollment increases

in case of working parent, increase per capita household expenditure as well as child

belonging to household of larger family and more children members. There is more chance

of child being at school if child lives in Punjab, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa

than Sindh province, however, it is more likely that children live in urban area of all

provinces of Pakistan go to school for study.

Estimation results of subgroup analysis for schooling outcome reveals that there are more

chances that male, elder and working child is not obtaining normal school grades and

remains fall behind in the class as per age. However, it is less likely that son/daughter of

head of household performs below normal progress at school than other children. There are

increase chances that educated and elder parent they pay more attention on the progress of

their children at school and resultantly child attain normal grades in the class. There is more

likelihood that impact of working mother on attainment of normal grades in class is stronger

than working fathers. Probability of child performs below normal progress in the class

decreases with increase of per capita household expenditure, household size and children

60
members. It is likelihood that child belonging to other provinces than Baluchistan attains

normal grades in the school, however, there are fewer chances of child lives in urban area to

perform below normal progress at school.

Overall, this study conceives that work unpleasantly affects the enrolment of child at school

as well as fall below normal progress in the class as per age, however, attendance of child at

school suffers more as compared to performance at school. Although less numbers of girls

are enrolled in schools than boys, however, it is likelihood that girls perform better at

school. In the same way less number of being son/daughter of household head enrolls in

schools however, it is likelihood that their performance is better at school. It is more

likelihood that educated parent enrolls their child at school and pays more attention on

child’s performance at school. Household per capita expenditure / permanent income

positively affect both school attendance and performance at school, with both have strong

affect. In the same pattern, both school enrolment and performance at school affect

positively if there are more family members and children in the household.

5.2 Recommendations

The analysis of explanatory variables on both the dependent variables indicates increased

number of dropout of elder children from school and engagement of elder age children into

work affects both school attendance and performance of child at school. However, this

increase level of dropout from school is not affected only from child work, there are other

related characteristics such as child’s own, parent, household, provincial and regional

characteristics which play their role in child attendance and performance at school. Nexus,

following policy implications are being suggested:-

61
5.2.1 Improvement in formal educational system in government institutions be carried out

to attract more number of children at school. This can be carried out by revising old

academic syllabus and examination system.

5.2.2 As evidence from empirical analysis of this study, more number of children attend

the school as well as perform normal progress in the class if parent are economically in

better position, so there is need to promote local as well as small scale industry / household

income generation schemes which creates more employment in order to bring economic

prosperity among household.

5.2.3 Enhance technical institutions to provide skillful technical education among elder

children and increase awareness among parent to send their children at technical schools in

order enhance their technical knowledge.

5.2.4 Bring socio-economic reforms in all the provinces of Pakistan in order to reduce

provincial and regional differences among households which results in reducing child work,

dropout rate and promote literacy rate among young generation.

62
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 APPENDIX A

Logistic Model

Regression analysis is an estimation method that aims to find a crisp relationship

between dependent and independent variables and to estimate the variance of measurement

error. Logistic regression introduced by Pohlman and Leitner in 2003 is used to describe the

relationship between several explanatory variables X’s to a dichotomous dependent variable

Y. The logistic regression makes no assumption about the distribution of the independent

variables. They do not have to be normally distributed, linearly related or of equal variance

within each group. These assumptions of simple linear regression does not effect on logistic

regression model, so we move to logistic regression instead of simple linear regression.

Simple logistic regression does not give reliable result when vague data is used. To

overcome the situation in which uncertainty and ambiguity is occurred logistic regression is

proposed. The result of logistic regression is more precise and accurate as compared to

simple logistic regression model.

Logistic regression is statistical technique which may use to estimates the probability of

an outcome and these outcomes are categorical explained variables. Events are coded as

binary variables, in which scenario ‘1’ represents the probability of occurrence of that event,

and a zero value represents a non-occurring probability. It estimates probabilities of events

as functions of independent variables and defines relationship between disclosure and result.

The odd ratio is the probability ratio that can occur and it does not occur. Log odds play a

significant role in logistical regression; it provides useful information on the probabilistic

connection between dependent and independent variables. Algebraically represented as:


Yi  ln( i )  b0  b1 x1  b2 x2  .........  bk xk
1  i

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Yi Represented a value on dependent variables where i=0,1, and (b0 , b1 ,............., b) are

coefficient of logistic regression model where ( x1 , x2 ,........., xk ) are independent variables.

Y is a binary variable measuring membership in some group. Coding Y1 = 1 if i = 0, 1 is a

member of that group and 0 otherwise, then let i = the probability that Y1 = 1. The odd


that i =1 is given by ( i ) . The log odds or logit of i equals the natural logarithm of
1  i


( i ).
1  i

Logistic regression is employed for the classification of statistical probability as it illustrates

the predictor variables, so the model is used for the prediction of the predictor variables and

gives estimated values of parameters of categorical response model.

In logistic regression binary dependent variables are used, so researcher prefers it instead of

simple linear regression model. The variance of a simple linear regression is continuous

which is called homoscedasticity, however, binary variables do not fall under this

assumption, therefore, in case of employing binary dependent variables, logistic regression

is the best choice.

The logistic regression or logistic model can also be represented as:

odds(yj != 0) = exp(xjβ + β0)

The interpretation of logistic report coefficients, logistic reports and odd ratios (ORs) is

through exponentiated coefficients. For example, if logistic reports a coefficient of 5, it

corresponds to report exp (.5) = 1.6487, in turn labeling results to be of an odd ratio.

Logistic reports exponentiated coefficients (specify option or) while logistic reports

unexponentiated coefficients (specify option coefficient), which commands you to use

estimate as your model makes no difference.

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In the logistic model, if p(x) is the probability of an event for a given value of x, then

logit(p(x)) = log µ p(x) / (1 - p(x) = α + βx

Then for x = 0 (unexposed), logit(p(x)) = logit(p(0)) = α + β (0) = α

x = 1 (exposed), logit(p(x)) = logit(p(1)) = logit(p(1)) = α + β (1) = α + β

Odds and Odd Ratios

Let p represent probability of an event,. o = p / (1 - p) is referred as the odds of the event.

Either way of stating likeliness works similarly. When probabilities are small, p/(1 - p)

nearly equals p as 1 - p is approximately 1. For unlikely events, formal definition of the

odds is often ignored by epidemiologists and they talk about “risk” as if o = p.

The interpretation of an exponentiated coefficient in an ordinary logistic regression is as:

Odds (if the corresponding variable is incremented by 1)

Odds (if variable not incremented)
Also, odds of an event among

unexposed: p(0) / (1 - p(0))

exposed: p(1) / (1 - p(1))
Therefore,

OR = odds of an even among exposed

odds of an even among unexposed
= p(1) / (1 - p(1))
p(0) / (1 - p(0))
and
β = logit(p(1)) -logit(p(0))
𝑝(1) 𝑝(0)
= log (1−𝑝(1)) − 𝑙𝑜𝑔 (1−𝑝(0))
𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑝(1)⁄ (1−𝑝(1))
= 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑝(0)⁄ (1−𝑝(0))
= log(OR)
The regression coefficient in the population model is demonstrated by log(OR), hence OR is

acquired by exponentiating β,

eβ= elog(OR) = OR

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