POSTER PROJECT

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING COURSE

DYNAMICS OF INDONESIA POPULATION AND ITS

INTERACTION TO WATER, RICE AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Korinus N Waimbo

Introduction
This work presents a modelling exercise to model and simulate the behavior of
Indonesian population size and its interaction to water, electricity and rice
demand.
Through a better understanding of the underlying structure that gave rise to the
dynamics of population, water demand, electricity demand and rice demand,
better policy interventions regarding water, electricity and rice security in
Indonesia may be formed.
Results
• The total population in Indonesia in year 2000 is about 201 million people1. Over the course
of 20 years, it has increased by 29.3 percent in 2020.
• Water demand in the year 2020 is . There is an increase of 30 percent over period 20 years
since year 2000.
• Electricity demand in the year 2020 is . There is an increase of 30 percent over period 20
years since year 2000.
• Rice demand in the year 2020 is . There is an increase of 30 percent over period of 20 years
since year 2000.

Methods Population (base year = year 2000)

Water Demand [Liter]

• We used System Dynamic Modelling (SDM) technique to assess the

dynamics of population size in Indonesia and its interaction to water,
electricity and rice demand.
• The model was developed using Insight Maker (https://insightmaker.com/)
• The model temporal’s resolution is at annual timestep over the period from
the year 2000 to 2030.
• Statistical tests (i.e., Root Mean Squared Percent Error) was carried out to
test model behavior

Electricity Demand Rice Demand

Model Error Analysis

RSMPE of Population is 0.42%

Conclusions
• Water, electricity and rice demand in Indonesia is structurally influenced by the

References •
population size.
By the year 2030, population in Indonesia will be 311 billion people.
1. Indonesia Population, World Bank, • By the year 2030, water demand in Indonesia will be 30 trillion liters.
https://datacommons.org/place/country/IDN?utm_medium=explore&mprop=count&po
• By the year 2030, electricity demand in Indonesia will be 3027 trillion kW.
pt=Person&hl=en
2. Tingkat Konsumsi Air per kapita di Indonesia, • By the year 2030, rice demand in Indonesia will be 35 billion kg.
http://ciptakarya.pu.go.id/water/post.php?q=101-Satu-Orang-Indonesia-Konsumsi.html#
:~:text=Hasil%20survey%20yang%20dilakukan%20Direktorat,45%25%20dari%20total%2

3.
0pemakaian%20air.
Tingkat Konsumsi Listrik per kapita di Indonesia,
https://www.antaranews.com/berita/2473033/konsumsi-listrik-per-kapita-capai-1109-k
Acknowledgements
wh-sampai-september-2021.
4. Tingkat Konsumsi Beras per apita di Indonesia,
https://waspada.co.id/2015/03/konsumsi-beras-orang-indonesia-114-kg-per-tahun-per
-kapita/#:~:text=JAKARTA%20%E2%80%93%20Pemerintah%20mengakui%2C%20konsu
msi%20beras,gram%20per%20kapita%20per%20hari.

PEMDA MERAUKE PAPUA LANGUAGE INSTITUTE (PLI)

korinus@gmail.com +44 (0)1392 726654 @KorinusWaimbo korinuswaimbo