eh-2

(4+A)

ded" (Sample Space) (g ort-9) ¬gpertume4

octComRs Crusults) o} an
The Set 0 al poscstble
s calld as a ample space
The eluments of a amplespa.ce aste callt
def" (Sample poHs)
a he Sanop1e pouMS
tubse of Cs calltd a3 an eyent
def CEVen4)- Any
dea Probabiuky of an ¬ven *
P Sald 40 be a probabtttty det furicton f
Qa-tsft es al the folteden g Pos4utates CaszoiS):
PCAPCA) 70
PS)1
uiy PCUAn) A)
P(AJUAoU... DAn) PAN+ PAg) t tPEAR)
whete An art mteltally Eecitusive.
4fAs an even 4 in a diccoete ample space S
Ahen PCA) egualsthe SuM o he

tndivtt a ottomts Compruging A

at A1yAos Aa. be the unHe Co tninie)
cquence c 0t connes Comprtsen9
Then AiVAUA2 VA4
dtn ce th ndivisuoal otrtC omt3 artt routually acusev e
Brtd otiulaits)
tby astng
PtA)fCA VA,VAgU)
PCA)+ PA) +PlA3) +
BE 4 we ipAbalance COotn,whad 3 he Pooba.brhy
geetin4 atifeas one head 2
o1 HRrt HH, HT, TH, TT}
del Event o getting4 at l20. One head

A {HH,HT, TH
PCA)P(HH?) + PC}HT?) + PATHY) N, 19124
Platieast)»
1
Exa die loaded n Such a way that 2ach ddd. no.
s wce a likely +0 0ceart a 2ach evon no.
Fnd P[G). wherto the eyat h ot a D0. gTater

han 8DcCturtes Sthgle

00 a rtoJe: f die.

HercL S{b2,3,4, 5 6

and G 4,5,63
the
poobabrluky t9etting an even nD. P
Theprtobab?üty getth9 an odd no aP
hav P s)
P1)+ P21)+P($%3) + P(4?) t P[s6?) + P(IC3)*|
I
2P t P t 3 +Pt p tP
(1

P) P43)+ P CiG3) + PH61)

Pt2 tP 4P 4y
EX3 14
14 o a giveo Copertt rocn+ 0, D2,0gS an
n inee SquLn CRL 0 0utCOms, then yertfy hat
PLOT) t 1, 2,8,. is mdkud a Poobably

cleart 1-

C PCS) PCOp) t Po,) + PL0s) +

t

T-Va
 Conclus conv PO)= (

a 4 Cun) N any 0n
didforten 2qtually LTrely atcoyn&R, and ' t h
tet to mR3tgethat Conc4Lt evA dhen the Pavbabrl
geven b PA)2
A 1 02, 0as ON be the ndivstual outtbnES o
S
PCoE) , i E I,2,34,
Now PA) = PLO)+PC0@) t tPlON)
+ Cfor -times)

Atve foom a deck oj

EX Cartd Po Ckthand qeael
Playng Cartds s
Satd 0be a ful hotuse

Congs u f a Knd and a PaTred a l the

Casto ha nds arC qunlly iKely what te Ahe_
Poobabeity betn g daalt ult bous.
 a

ST
A
-

OP
 Some Rtdes o Prtobabrli
P)
we have SuO=S
Plcu ) -Pc)
Pt)+ P) PMS)
PLO) > 0

(e) PCA') = -PGA)

havR AUA= SS
P we
PCAUA)= Pts)
1
PA) + PGA)
=

PCA)1-PA) 17
Ac PA) PCB)
(
we hayl BAvA'nB)

PC)-PTAV(A'Db)
PtA)t P A'De)
7PCA)
PCA)PCA) 2 PCB)

(4) 0&PA) 21
We havR, CA C S
Peo)Pt) PMS)
0PA)e 1
o PA) £ 1
Addtwn Theoyem n clsibn - clon PotoCiple
PCAUD)= A)+PCE) PANB)
e have, AuB s
A, A'nB)
PGAUD) ?A AlDe))
PLA)+ PADe) -0|
 = PA)+ P(B) PGADP)
Pa'n )-6JVdnn)
-

dd Anl= P, Ml= m, 1Bl= n

AUBI(m-pHeth- m-P n-P

M+)-P
A +Ipl - IAnbl A-m Bl=n

AUP AL+1BL Ane

1S 1S

PAVD) PGA) +Pl)-PLANB)

C0 C1). 44 ADb Ahen
, PCAUB)= PA)t PCe).
Nond PCAVD) =
PCA)t PLB) -PCANB)
PCA)+ PCe) Pl¢
PA) tPC%)
PCAUDVC) =PGA) +Ple) +PC¢)-- PAne)- PBnc)-P(cnA)
tPlADDn c).
PCAUBUC) P(AUD)
PA) * PD) -P (ADo)
PA)+PPUc) -P (An (BUC))
PCA) + PCe)t PCC) - PBnc)

-PADe)v CAnc))J -0
PA)tPCB)4PC¢) -PLAna)- PlAnc) -Penc)
+P&ANDDC), ing W)
Nn, PtADB) VCANc))
PCAn)+ PAn c) (PA0C) nlAnc))
PCAn) t P (ANC) - PANGNC)
 tPCANDne),
4o a Larca m2trto pothan artoa th pro babeL+ E
TtOSPOHCValy,that a famy
arte 08G0-85 an d 0:29
S a Colore
Crandomy chosen fort a Sample satvey) 0wn
4levEsion s a HDTV St on botb Kinds 0f,sRAS,
lha s h prtob
babilty 4had a family on g ether Or
boh knds of seAs 9
A= ¬Van+ tha a famuy hag a CotoreTY

bEVA that
tven, PA ) = 0 80
a
famaly has HOTV
PCB)=0.0-35, PCAN D 2 0 . a 1

We hav PLAU) PA)+ PLE) - PAnm

0 86 4 0-36 0-29 01a
 Neart a eretatn ext
0 1-17, thR picoba htti¢es ard o a and
0uIecpeetvety hat a ttruel Aopped at a rc0ad btøck
w haVe fatttt) bitakes orc baol lY 001 CN 4¢es Als0, Ih
Prteb te 0-38 Ahat a ituck s4op ped t he oad btocK toitt
bave fdteltY brtakes and/ort badly twort) Aërces ulhat is
Ahe Prtob that a 4rtick stopped al Ahis teadbtocK ou
have fauety biraKCS as wetl aS badty Nooren 1reg 9

t r ¬ven4 4hal Ahe ArtuCK has fatuAy birakes

GveM hat Ahe Arttek has bd 490s
Gve0, PeA 0a3 PCD) 0 PGAU) 0-39
We hetd P(An)
We have P¢AUD) PAM PCB) P (GANBO.
PLAn)= PA) +PC) PGAUD)
0 33 + 0 0 3s

E 4f a perco0 visis his dendist Suppose Hhat be

Prto babclty Ahat he wel have his deeth eeaneol is 0«qu
the prrob: that he wiu"have a cav+y U Ld Es 0-a4dhe
Prtop +h at he wfU have a 4o0Hh eoetrcaeled s 0.al the
prtob that he Wlhave hes 4eth cleaned and a Cay4u
have his eoth
fee CS 0-08 the Prtob that he wl
(0-tfHthe prto b dhat he
oleaned and a 40th eXArca eHedts
and a H00th ectrtaeleod is 0-0
wet have a cavcHY fu Rd
he w have hes 1e0-th cleaned a Cavety
ancl he prtob 4hat
S 0-09. What (9the prob
priob
feuld» and cl A0ih ectra eled wit have
visng his dentèsA
4hat a pertso n
olone 40 him?
f 4hese 4hings clean 4eth.
a percson wiuhave
d t A = ernH 4h at
e r e m 4ha a petso0 wt have
.cavty fled.
eVenH hd a peuson wtl have Aeeth xtracied.
GiveD, PcAD Osy, PB) 0,2,
PCC) 0«21 PAne):008.
PGAN C 0 ll PCLOc) 0 01,
PlAnne)s 003
=

t0eneoed PAUUC ?
PGAn)- PtBnc)-P(ADC)+PCA0Bnc)
PCAUDUC) PtADAP,)t P¢C)-
t003
0:08-0.1 -0:07
0:444 0 2A 0:1-
0.92 - 036 0.66

HTcha/r.96
M
-14
 Exercises
I. Use Venn diagrams to verify that 3. Use Venn diagrams to verify that
(a) (A UB) UCis the same eventas A U(BUC (a) (ANB) U(ANB) A =

(b)An(BUC) is the same event as (A NB) U(A NC) (b) (An B) U (AB)U(A'nB) AUB; =

c) A U(BnC)is the same event as (A UB) n(AUC). (c) AU(A'NB) = AUB.

2. Use Venn diagrams to verify the two De Morganlaws: 4. Use Venn diagrams to verify that if A is contained in
(a) (AnBY = A'UB'; (b) (A UB) A'nB'.
=
B, then ANB A and An B
= = V.
 36 Probability

Exercises the
method
of proof
used
Exercise 12t
in Exere:.

Duplicate
13.
5. Use parts (a) and (b) of Exercise 3 to show that
+P(C)+P(D
show that
(a) P(A) 2 PANB): =
PA)
+P{B)

(b) PA) s PAUB).

U B U C U D )

PA -PMANB)-PANC)-P(Ann

6. Referring to Figure 6, verify that

-P(BnC)-P{BND)-P(Cnn

PANB)=P(A) - P(ANB) +P(ANBnc)+PABnD)

7. Referring to Figure 6 and letting P(A'nB') = d, ver

ify that +P(ANCD) +P(BnCnD

PA'OB) 1 - PlA) -P(B) +PANB) - P(ANBncnD)

8. The event that "A or B but not both" will occur can be

written as Venn diagram of Fio

the
toregions
ANB')U(A'NB) divide each of
refthe
e r e eight
nce into two parts, deci tting
With
(Hint:
of PA), other outside
D and a
Express the probability of this event in terms
and the
inside D be the probabil
P(B), and P(A NB). ing one to
be
k, 1, m, n, 0, and
p
b, c, d, e,f,8, h,i,j, resulting l6 regions.)
that a, with the
9. Use the formula of Theorem 7 to show ties
associated

(a) P(An B) E P(A) + P(B); induction that

-1. 14. Prove by
y5) P(ANB) EPCA) +P(B)
with the prob- UEn) E) PE)
x10. Use the Venn diagram of Figure7 to AnBNC, PCE UE2U.. I=l
abilities a, b, c, d, e, f, and g assigned
and AnB'nC to show that
if P(A) =

E2,..., and En
ANBnC',...,
1. [Hint: Start ofevents E1,
for anyfinite
sequence
1, then P(AnBnC)
=

P(B) =
P(C) =

given by the
1, it follows that will o c c u r are
with the argument that since P(A) an event
=
that
I5. The odds will occur to the
that the event
e =c=f = 0. ratio of the probability
will not occur, provided neither proba-
II. Give alternative proof of Theorem 7 by making probability that it in terms of positive
Odds are usually quoted
an
and B =

use of the relationships

A UB =AU(A'NB) bility is zero.
no c o m m o n
factor. Show that if the odds
(AnB)UA'NB). integers having will occur, its probability
is
A to B that an event
are
7 and the method by
12. Use the
Venn diagram of Figure 8.
which we proved Theorem 7 to prove
Theorem
p A+B
be determined by expos-
16. Subjective probabilities may
situations and finding the odds
ing persons to risk-taking fair to bet on the outcome.
at which they would consider it
The odds are then converted into probabilities by
means

of the formula of Exercise 15. For instance, if a persOn

b
8 feels that 3 to 2 are fair odds that a business venture wl
$2
succeed (or that it would be fair to bet $30 against
3 = 0.6 that
that it will succeed), the probability is
the business venture will succeed. Show that if subjecive
3+2
probabilities are determined in this way, they satisty
(a) Postulate 1;
(b) Postulate 2.
See also Exercise 82.

Exercises 10, 12, and 13.

Venn diagram for
Figure 7.