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  • ShahAlam - Q1 - Solution-Ramish Arif

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    Ramish Arif
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    The document contains monthly demand data in pounds from January 2012 to December 2014. It shows seasonal fluctuations with demand generally higher in summer months (June-August) and winter months (November-December) and lower in spring and fall. A line graph visualizes the demand data and clearly illustrates the seasonal trends over the three year period. The document then analyzes the demand data for seasonality on a monthly basis from 2012 to 2014. Finally, it applies three forecasting models - naive, cumulative, and 12 period moving average - to the demand time series data and calculates the errors for each model.

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    Problem Set 1 Q1 Shah Alam

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    The document contains monthly demand data in pounds from January 2012 to December 2014. It shows seasonal fluctuations with demand generally higher in summer months (June-August) and winter months (November-December) and lower in spring and fall. A line graph visualizes the demand data and clearly illustrates the seasonal trends over the three year period. The document then analyzes the demand data for seasonality on a monthly basis from 2012 to 2014. Finally, it applies three forecasting models - naive, cumulative, and 12 period moving average - to the demand time series data and calculates the errors for each model.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    17 views9 pages

    ShahAlam - Q1 - Solution-Ramish Arif

    Uploaded by

    Ramish Arif
    The document contains monthly demand data in pounds from January 2012 to December 2014. It shows seasonal fluctuations with demand generally higher in summer months (June-August) and winter months (November-December) and lower in spring and fall. A line graph visualizes the demand data and clearly illustrates the seasonal trends over the three year period. The document then analyzes the demand data for seasonality on a monthly basis from 2012 to 2014. Finally, it applies three forecasting models - naive, cumulative, and 12 period moving average - to the demand time series data and calculates the errors for each model.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 9

    Date Demand (lbs)

    January-12 584
    February-12 552
    March-12 544
    April-12 576
    May-12 585
    June-12 784
    July-12 1026
    August-12 1098
    Demand (lbs
    September-12 666
    October-12 504 2500

    November-12 576
    December-12 1224
    January-13 720 2000

    February-13 729
    March-13 747
    1500
    April-13 621
    May-13 819
    June-13 1260
    1000
    July-13 1368
    August-13 1530
    September-13 873
    500
    October-13 976
    November-13 624
    December-13 1416
    0
    January-14 855 January-12 May-12 September-12 January-13 May-13 Sep
    February-14 528
    March-14 729 Demand (lbs

    April-14 800
    May-14 744
    June-14 928
    July-14 1560
    August-14 1746
    September-14 909
    October-14 1773
    November-14 2000
    December-14 1512
    Demand (lbs)

    January-13 May-13 September-13 January-14 May-14 September-14

    Demand (lbs)
    Analysing for Seasonality
    2012 2013 2014
    Jan 584 720 855 Seasonality
    Feb 552 729 528 2500
    Mar 544 747 729
    2000
    Apr 576 621 800
    May 585 819 744 1500
    Jun 784 1260 928
    Jul 1026 1368 1560 1000

    Aug 1098 1530 1746


    500
    Sep 666 873 909
    Oct 504 976 1773 0
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
    Nov 576 624 2000
    Dec 1224 1416 1512 2012 2013 2014
    Seasonality

    May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    012 2013 2014


    Date Demand (lbs)
    January-12 584 Naive Model
    February-12 552 Cumulative Model
    March-12 544 12 Period Moving Average model
    April-12 576
    May-12 585
    June-12 784
    July-12 1026
    August-12 1098
    September-12 666
    October-12 504
    November-12 576
    December-12 1224
    January-13 720
    February-13 729
    March-13 747
    April-13 621
    May-13 819
    June-13 1260
    July-13 1368
    August-13 1530
    September-13 873
    October-13 976
    November-13 624
    December-13 1416
    January-14 855
    February-14 528
    March-14 729
    April-14 800
    May-14 744
    June-14 928
    July-14 1560
    August-14 1746
    September-14 909
    October-14 1773
    November-14 2000
    December-14 1512
    1512
    957.94444444
    1173.6666667
    Data Cumulative Model
    Date Demand (lbs) Cumulative Model Error Absolute Error Square Error
    January-12 584 584
    February-12 552 568 32 32 1024
    March-12 544 560 24 24 576
    April-12 576 564 -16 16 256
    May-12 585 568 -21 21 441
    June-12 784 604 -216 216 46570
    July-12 1026 664 -422 422 177943
    August-12 1098 719 -434 434 187984
    September-12 666 713 53 53 2769
    October-12 504 692 209 209 43588
    November-12 576 681 116 116 13433
    December-12 1224 727 -543 543 294454
    January-13 720 726 7 7 43
    February-13 729 726 -3 3 9
    March-13 747 728 -21 21 429
    April-13 621 721 107 107 11378
    May-13 819 727 -98 98 9604
    June-13 1260 756 -533 533 284340
    July-13 1368 789 -612 612 374068
    August-13 1530 826 -741 741 549705
    September-13 873 828 -47 47 2242
    October-13 976 835 -148 148 21932
    November-13 624 825 211 211 44368
    December-13 1416 850 -591 591 348716
    January-14 855 850 -5 5 24
    February-14 528 838 322 322 103864
    March-14 729 834 109 109 11856
    April-14 800 833 34 34 1146
    May-14 744 830 89 89 7858
    June-14 928 833 -98 98 9685
    July-14 1560 856 -727 727 528723
    August-14 1746 884 -890 890 791526
    September-14 909 885 -25 25 619
    October-14 1773 911 -888 888 788759
    November-14 2000 942 -1089 1089 1185921
    December-14 1512 958 -570 570 324770
    12 Period Moving Average
    RMSE 12 Period Moving Average Error Absolute error Squared Error

    419.88513158

    727 -7 7 43
    738 -9 9 80
    753 -6 6 32
    770 -149 149 22077
    773 46 46 2085
    793 467 467 218245
    833 536 536 286760
    861 669 669 447561
    897 -24 24 576
    914 62 62 3813
    954 -330 330 108625
    958 458 458 210146
    974 -119 119 14062
    985 -457 457 208697
    968 -239 239 57161
    967 -167 167 27750
    982 -238 238 56406
    975 -47 47 2233
    948 612 612 375054
    964 782 782 612176
    982 -73 73 5268
    985 788 788 621601
    1051 949 949 900601
    1166 346 346 119947
    RMSE

    423.32999165

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