Assignment No.

2
Following table shows the historic data of monthly demand of a major AC importer in Pakistan.
i. Plot the data and identify the trend and seasonality
ii. Using the following methods, forecast the monthly demand of this company:
a. Weighted Moving Averages
b. Exponential smoothing
c. Exponential smoothing with Trend Adjustment
d. Least Square method
iii. Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute
Percentage Error of these methods.
iv. Comment on the performance of these methods
• Clearly state all your assumptions and also rationalize your assumptions.
• Submit your Excel file containing forecasting methods and word file to for overall results
and discussion
• Submit the hardcopy in the class on 16-11-2022

Last Date of Submission: 16-11-2022 (Before 6 pm)

 Actual Actual
Month-Year Month-Year Month-Year Actual Demand
Demand Demand
Jan-12 15300 Aug-15 14604 Mar-19 43601
Feb-12 18600 Sep-15 10364 Apr-19 48614
Mar-12 13450 Oct-15 9436 May-19 53442
Apr-12 16750 Nov-15 7605 Jun-19 46086
May-12 18600 Dec-15 7144 Jul-19 46596
Jun-12 17670 Jan-16 16052 Aug-19 13667
Jul-12 17869 Feb-16 43560 Sep-19 12482
Aug-12 7690 Mar-16 43774 Oct-19 16005
Sep-12 7210 Apr-16 47952 Nov-19 9835
Oct-12 6689 May-16 48003 Dec-19 5344
Nov-12 4550 Jun-16 48266 Jan-20 7995
Dec-12 4355 Jul-16 36210 Feb-20 41556
Jan-13 3561 Aug-16 11008 Mar-20 56000
Feb-13 12000 Sep-16 10689
Mar-13 18996 Oct-16 7630
Apr-13 19101 Nov-16 4261
May-13 14506 Dec-16 4566
Jun-13 19414 Jan-17 4583
Jul-13 19531 Feb-17 28455
Aug-13 14056 Mar-17 33665
Sep-13 7421 Apr-17 39650
Oct-13 7101 May-17 47341
Nov-13 6350 Jun-17 44691
Dec-13 4560 Jul-17 37760
Jan-14 4863 Aug-17 16500
Feb-14 7886 Sep-17 14662
Mar-14 21056 Oct-17 13694
Apr-14 21487 Nov-17 10495
May-14 19560 Dec-17 3487
Jun-14 25600 Jan-18 6374
Jul-14 17439 Feb-18 38744
Aug-14 9630 Mar-18 44561
Sep-14 6988 Apr-18 49136
Oct-14 4650 May-18 51660
Nov-14 5660 Jun-18 48600
Dec-14 5670 Jul-18 45600
Jan-15 4667 Aug-18 12566
Feb-15 38560 Sep-18 11664
Mar-15 38677 Oct-18 10554
Apr-15 39600 Nov-18 9788
May-15 37664 Dec-18 5224
Jun-15 24560 Jan-19 7661
Jul-15 20764 Feb-19 38997