Experimental design,

Documentation,
Presentantion of Results
and Implementation
SIMULACIÓN DE PROCESOS DISCRETOS
M.C. VICTOR ALEJANDRO HUERTA TORRUCO
An experiment deliberately imposes a treatment on a group of objects or subjects in the
interest of observing the response.

A factor of an experiment is a controlled independent variable; a variable whose levels

are set by the experimenter.

A treatment / scenario is specific combination of the levels of all factors for a given
run.
The alternatives that are to be simulated must be determined. For each system design that
is simulated, decisions need to be made concerning:

-The length of the initialization period (Warming up period)

-The length of simulation runs/replications, and
-The number of replications to be made of each run.
R is the number of replications, when the sample size, R, is fixed, no
guarantee can be given for the resulting error. But if the sample size can be
increased, an error criterion can be specified.

Assume that an initial sample of size R0 replications has been observed-that

is, the simulation analyst initially makes R0 independent replications. We
must have R0 ≥ 2, with 10 or more being desirable. The R0 replications will
be used to obtain an initial estimate S02 of the population variance σ2.
Simulation runs (Evaluate scenarios and Constraints) and their subsequent analysis, are
used to estimate measures of performance for the system that are being simulated.
Consider the estimation of a performance parameter, Ө (or ɸ), of a simulated system. It
is desired to have a point estimate and an interval estimate of Ө (or ɸ).The length of the
interval estimate is a measure of the error in the point estimate.

The point estimator of Ө based on the data ( Y1 . . . , Yn )is defined by:

Where Ө is a sample mean based on a sample of size n. Computer simulation languages

may refer to this as a "discrete-time," "collect," "tally" or "observational" statistic.
A confidence interval is a measure of the error based on a sample across R replications.

Given the analysis of runs that have been completed, the analyst determines whether
additional runs are needed and what design those additional experiments should follow.
 Experimenter- Compra de equipo
de pintura
En cierta empresa dedicada a pintar piezas de metal se está planteando la
substitución del equipo actual de trabajo, debido a que se pronostica un
aumento en la demanda que puede ser del 10%, 15% y 17% con respecto a
la demanda actual. Las características de las máquinas son:
Factor Factor Capacidad Tiempo de Costo de
(Demanda) (Equipo) (pzas.) producción operación
(min) (USD/hr)
1 Actual 2 Exponencial 60
(45)
1.1 Opción 1 3 Uniforme 83
(50,70)
1.15 Opción 2 2 30 75
1.17
Las solicitudes de pintura se reciben a una tasa de 4 unidades por hora.

Medidas de desempeño: volumen de producción, costo de operación,

porcentaje de solicitudes cubiertas y la utilización del equipo. Considerando un
periodo de estudio de 1 mes (30 días).

Objetivo: Determinar cuál de los 3 equipos es mejor.

Restricciones: Se debe cubrir una demanda de 2000 piezas al mes. El presupuesto

de operación es de 110 000 USD al mes. Se quiere cumplir con al menos 80% de las
solicitudes.

Cuál es la mejor opción para la empresa:

• Conservar el equipo actual o comprar un equipo nuevo?
• En caso de cambiar el equipo, Cuál de las 2 máquinas es mejor?
1. Model documentation is necessary:

• If the program is to be modified by the same or a different analyst.

• For model users can change parameters at will in an effort to learn the relationships
between input parameters and output measures of performance or to discover the
input parameters that optimize some output measure of performance.

2. Progress documentation

It is better to work with many intermediate milestones than with one absolute deadline.
Possibilities prior to the final report include a model specification, prototype,
demonstrations animations, training results, intermediate analyses, program
documentation, progress reports, and presentations. He suggests that these deliverables
should be timed judiciously over the life of the project.
The success of the implementation phase depends on how well the previous steps
have been performed. It is also contingent upon how thoroughly the analyst has
involved the ultimate model user during the entire simulation process. If the model
user has been thoroughly involved during the model-building process and if the
model user understands the nature of the model and its outputs, the likelihood of a
vigorous implementation is enhanced.

Conversely, if the model and its underlying assumptions have not been properly
communicated, implementation will probably suffer, regardless of the simulation
model's validity.

“Perhaps the most crucial point in the entire process is

Validation, because an invalid model is going to lead to
erroneous results, which if implemented, could be
dangerous, costly, or both.”
Define your experimental design
(factors/level/performance
measurements)
 Thanks for your
attention

MC VICTOR ALEJANDRO HUERTA TORRUCO