SBU2642 WEEK-7

Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy in the 20st Century

Mustafa Aydın- «Determinants of TFP:
Changing Patterns and Conjunctures during
the Cold War»
► Conjunctural factors, besides the structural factors, the
result of international and domestic changes over the
years, have also helped to shape Turkey's contemporary
FP.
► The reason for choosing certain conjunctural factors was
the sudden shift they had caused in either the
implementation or more importantly the foundation of the
TFP.
Main Conjunctural Factors
► The transition from the Cold War
► The Cyprus issue
► The constitutional and political development of the
country, together with its economic ambitions and
problems
► The different views of political parties and groups which
came into existence after the 1960 military intervention
► the 1961 Constitution, together with social and political
evaluation it embodied
► the changes in attitudes of certain states towards Turkey
3 different periods of TFP (btw 1923-80)
► 1-The inter-war period under the leadership of Ataturk and Inonu
found Turkey Western in its inclination but jealously guarding
against any intimation that its independence might be
jeopardized. The FP of this period was essentially shaped by the
traditional or structural factors. Particularly Mustafa Kemal's
understanding and practice of FP was important
► 2-The second period, 1945-60, during which TFP was dominated by
total Western dependence
► 3-It was followed by a period of disillusionment with the West, late
detente with Eastern bloc and rapprochement efforts with the
Third World (1960-70). The 1970s, in addition, saw a pattern of
alienation from the West encouraged by the Cyprus crisis of 1974,
which in turn showed Turkey the cumulative result of the FP it had
been following since the end of the WW2: loneliness in the
international arena
 Interwar period TFP

► Ataturk’s FP was dominated by the priority of peace, sovereignty and

national development over expansionist-revisionism.
► Turkey under Inonu’s leadership 'faithfully followed the Kemalist
regime in every domain and the foreign policy remained unchanged
(out of WW2)
► The Second World War marked a watershed in Turkey's FP as well as in
its domestic developments. Its dependence on the Western powers
went too far to represent a reversal in its earlier policies. TFP before
the WW2 was independent in nature, despite a series of regional
pacts, and based primarily on conciliation with all big and regional
powers.
 TFP in the period btw 1945-60

► Western-dependent FP
► In the international arena there were basically two more
important and interrelated developments that were
instrumental in Turkey's decision to establish closer ties
with the Western countries: 1-the evolving int’l system
from balance of power to «bipolar» 2-the emergence of
the Soviet Union as a superpower, and, more delicately
for Turkey, its subsequent demands upon Turkey
 TFP in the period btw 1945-60

► When Turkey refused the initial demands, from mid-1945

onwards, the Soviets started to exert heavy political
pressures on Turkey.
► The dispute over the Straits continued until the end of
1946.
► It was the combination of determined Turkish resistance,
opposition of the Western powers, and the loss of will on
the Soviets' part that caused the Soviets to back down.
 TFP in the period btw 1945-60
► The Truman Doctrine forged the initial bonds between Turkey and
the United States
► The reasons pushing Turkey into the Western camp: 1-the Soviet
threat 2-As war ended with a victory for the Western democracies,
the future seemed to be on their side and with their political
system 3-a dramatic change in the Turkish political system, namely
the transition to a multi-party system (internal pressure) 4-Beyond
the political factors, economic needs necessitated a Western
leaning in foreign policy (Turkey’s need for foreign aid)
► The real impetus behind change was President Inonu's accurate
assessment of Turkey's domestic scene, it would also be fair to
argue that desire for Western support against Soviet demands
strongly influenced his decision to promote truly democratic,
multi-party elections
 DP Period TFP
► In addition to establishing Turkey's dependency on foreign assistance and
creating a less than favorable image of the Turks' ability to manage their
finances, the fiscal policies of the DP government led to significant social
changes in Turkey.
► Turkey's main FP objective was to be a full member of NATO. This desire for
membership was based on political and economic factors rather than strategic
and military concerns. Domestic political considerations of the DP also played
a significant role in this decision (liberal economy, democratic system)
► As a result of its economic and military dependency on the West, TFP also
started to tilt toward the West. Turkey's active role in the creation of
alliances the Baghdad Pact and the Balkan Treaty, , its support of the
Western powers at the Suez crisis of 1956; its fierce opposition to the 1958
Iraqi coup; its threats to Syria in 1957
► Relations with the Soviet Union and other Eastern bloc countries were far
from friendly during this period
► During this period, Turkey's relations with the Middle Eastern Arab countries,
and Third World states in general, were literally an extension of its
Western-dependent FP (Turkey became isolated from the Third World)
 TFP after 1960
► The Turkish-American friendship, which began with the Truman Doctrine and
flourished in the 1950s, began to cool during the 1960s and deteriorated in the
1970s.
► the 1964 Cyprus crisis
► The detente process and the consequent loosening of the bipolar balance, which had
initiated important changes in world politics, also greatly affected Turkey's
international position.
► This multidimensional interplay can also be observed in economic developments
(North-South relations, Group of 77)
► Sociopolitical changes in the intercoup period
► The only visible FP modification of the military junta was an attempt to improve
relations with the Arab countries, and a desire to establish closer contacts with the
newly emerging nations
► Up to the early 1960s Turkish foreign policy-making remained in the almost
exclusive privilege of a small elitist group. After the 1960 coup and the
reconstruction of the constitutional government, Turkey's foreign relations entered
inter-party discussions and attracted people's attention.
► the constitutional and electoral changes introduced by the National Unity
Committee (proportional representation, coalition governments, plural society,
emergence of a genuine socialist movement, nationalistic and religious ideas)
► the extraordinary degree of radicalism espoused by the Turkish youth
 TFP after 1960
► Turkey's inactivity and isolation on the international front
► Not until the Cyprus crisis of 1963-64 did the emerging independent policy
trend at the top find wide support. Widespread anti- American sentiments
emerged.
► the geographical position of the Island of Cyprus, the large Turkish
community on the island, and , enosis (union with Greece), then the Greek
position on the island, was seen by many Turks as a first step for achieving
the Megali Idea (re-establishment of the old Byzantine Empire)
► Turkey sought support for its position in NATO and from the US, Another
faulty assumption was that the relative importance of Turkey to the US was
more than that of Greece because of its more strategic location
► Turkey’s statement on unilateral intervention and the infamous Johnson
letter of 1964
► Deteriorating Turkish-US relations: the Cyprus crisis and the Johnson letter,
anti-American sentiment + the Cuban missile 'deal' and NATO's adoption of
the 'flexible response' strategy
► the need for a new and fresh foreign policy
 TFP after 1960
► One of the major changes in TFP in the late 1960s was the rapprochement
with the Soviet Union (Cyprus was the catalyst for rapprochement)
► 2 ominous developments caused growing apprehension in Turkey. 1-the
increased Soviet naval presence in the Mediterranean 2-the growing
ideological impact of socialist doctrines within Turkey
► Concomitant with its rapprochement with the SU, Turkey also attempted
to improve and expand its relations with the non-aligned countries,
especially those in the ME (Third World support in the UN)
► Diversification of TFP (RCD with Iran and Pakistan)
► Towards the end of the 1960s Turkey became preoccupied with its
internal economic and political problems, and therefore ignored the
international situation. 2 important developments: 1-Turkey's biggest
problem with the US between 1966 and 1974, was the cultivation of opium
poppies in Turkey (poppy crisis) 2-Ecevit, who had been advocating a
'left-of-centre' stand for the RPP, replaced Inonu as party chairman in May
1972. (more independence within NATO, assertiveness in Turkish-Greek
relations)
 The 1974 Cyprus Crisis and Turkish
Intervention
► Colonels’ junta against Makarios in Greece
► Ecevit's weak coalition government had no viable option other than
intervention
► US arms embargo on Turkey
► Foreign reaction to the 1974 Cyprus intervention once again created a sense
of diplomatic isolation in Turkey
► Apart from the political and social evolution of Turkey and international
developments, economic considerations also played an important role in
influencing the course of TFP in the intercoup period, specifically in the
1970s
► Certain international events such as the economic recession in Europe, the
world-wide energy crisis and the 1974 Cyprus crisis, all adversely affected
Turkey's economy and forced it to diversify its FP
► In the inter-coup period, TFP changed its structure but not its foundation
 William Hale- «Turkey and the West
after the Cold War»
► Turkey’s relations with the Western European countries were
dominated by its relationship with the EU
► The overall strengthening of relations between Turkey and the US
continued during the 1990s. The importance of the relationship was
increased by Turkey’s role in the Gulf crisis in 1990-91 and its
aftermath
► A new entente developed between Turkey and Israel
► Turkey’s position in NATO became complicated by plans for a «new
European security architecture»
► Turkey’s relationship with the EU became very problematic
 Turkey and the US after the Cold War
► United States’ global policy of reducing its military commitments worldwide, while
the Cold War was over
► US military aid was also scaled down substantially
► For most of the 1990s, the alliance between Turkey and the US seemed firm because
in many policy areas the two countries had common interests and common
approaches (new NATO members, Turkey as a model for the newly independent
states in Central Asia, Turkey’s active role in supporting the role of the UN and the
US in Bosnia)
► For both sides, the Gulf crisis was a critical turning point, since it gave Turkey an
important actual and potential role in US policy in the Middle East
► Turkey suspended all commercial activities with Iraq
► Özal tried to act single-handedly in directing Turkish policy during the crisis but the
public opinion was unenthusiastic and there was strong opposition.
► The opposition to direct involvement by Turkish forces in the looming Gulf war was
clear.
► Permission for the coalition air forces to use İncirlik and other bases in Turkey for
attacks on Iraq
► Turkey had also been concerned to secure an assurance from NATO
 Turkey and the US after the Cold War
► Saddam Hussein’s brutal suppression of the rebellion by the Kurds and around 500.000 refugees fled to the border
with Turkey
► Operation Provide Comfort (UN’s safe haven)
► For Turgut Özal, the primary reason for supporting the coalition in the Gulf war was that it would re-establish
Turkey’s strategic importance in the eyes of the Western powers, especially the US.
► The question of Turkey’s accession to the EU raised a host of problems which were still unsolved
► Özal’s hopes proved unfounded. There was no internal settlement with the Kurds, and Western policy effectively left
a power vacuum in North-eastern Iraq, which strengthened the PKK
► Özal’s policy during the crisis marked an important turning point, in which Turkey abandoned its non-interventionist
policies in the ME, in favor of acting as a regional power
► Against this, it is suggested that in practice Turkish policies during the crisis did not really deviate from previous
approaches, which essentially rested on preserving friendly relations with the Middle Eastern states while still paying
due attention to Turkey’s membership of the Western alliance (a compromise between Özal’s ambitions and stiff
domestic opposition from the public, parliament and the army)
► Turkish policy had a lasting impact on the US-Turkey relations (Operation Provide Comfort proved Turkey’s
importance) but economic cost to Turkey of maintaining trade sanctions against Iraq was also a serious one
► The question of continuing the mandate for Operation Provide Comfort (especially in the Demirel period)- the
benefits of regularly renewing the mandate outweighed the potential costs
► US-Turkey relations and Operation Provide Comfort put to a severe test during the period of Erbakan-Çiller
government
► After that period, Turkish-US relations returned to a more normal state, but essential problems remained (the status
of a separate Kurdish political entity in Iraq)
► Capture of Abdullah Öcalan in February 1999
► Prompt and generous assistance of the US government and public during the İzmit earthquake in Turkey (August 17)
► The US support for Turkey’s EU membership and Clinton’s visit to Turkey
► By the end of the decade, the Turkish-US relationship seemed to have returned to a degree of warmth and popular
support
 NATO, Turkey and European Security
► Turkey’s membership of NATO continued to be a vital part of its links with the
West
► During the 1990s, the main shadow over Turkey’s position in the Western
alliance arose from plans by the EU to build its own security structures
(European defence policy, Western European Union)
► The relationship between WEU and NATO was also a complicated one
► A critical question of whether the WEU would be allowed to use the NATO
bases
► Turkey wanted full participation in decision-making
► CFE treaty limiting conventional forces in Europe (Russia applied for a
relaxation of these limitations)
► It had a paradoxical effect on the conventional arms holdings of Turkey and
Greece
 Turkey and the European Union
► Turkey’s relationship with the EU followed a fluctuating and uncertain course during the 1990s
► Between 1990 and 1995, the two sides seemed to be moving closer together. By the 1996, the trend went into
reverse (cultural reasons, human right abuses, potential economic problems)
► The EU-Turkey relations seemed to be recovering after the installation of the Ecevit administration in 1999
► In December 1999, Turkey was finally ranked as a candidate for accession
► A customs union agreement signed in March 1995
► Government’s handling with the Kurdish problem, closure of the pro-Kurdish parties
► In the economic sphere, the implementation of the customs union marked the most important milestone in the
development of Turkey’s relations with the EU since the signature of the Additional Protocol in 1970
► On balance, Turkey made more economic concessions under the customs union than did the EU
► In short, the Turkish economy gained rather than lost from the customs union, even if Turkey failed to make
full use of all the opportunities
► The political obstacles remained as real as ever!
► Erbakan’s coalition government had a damaging effect on Turkey’s relations with the EU (the idea of Christian
Union)
► The sense of alienation was heightened by similar moves on the European side
► During 1998, the Yılmaz government adhered to the policy of disengagement
► Following the elections of April 1999, prospects of a thaw in relations with the EU began to improve
► Helsinki Summit in December 1999 (Turkey’s candidacy status)
► Germany’s critical role in Turkey’s overall relations with the EU
 William Hale- «Conclusions and Prospects»
► Turkey was always a state under threat from other Powers
► Turkey’s alliance with the West was fairly unproblematic, until the Cyprus
crisis brought about a series of clash of perceived interests between Turkey
and the US in 1964.
► After the end of the Cold War, Turkey redefined its alliance with the West
(Turkey was still of substantial value to NATO)
► How well did TFP cope with the problems it faced after the 1990s?
► In the central relations with the US, and NATO, the balance sheet was
generally positive. The Turks kept their commitments to the West.
► In Turkey’s relationship with Western Europe, the record was far more mixed.
► Although the dissolution of the Soviet Union removed the main threat to
Turkey’s security, handling its relations with Russia was a tricky problem.
► In the Middle East, the most striking change in Turkish policy was the
emergence of the entente with Israel.
 Domestic Political Changes and Self-Perceptions
► After 1964 (Cyprus crisis), domestic political pressures began to have more effect on
foreign policy.
► Only questions affecting national feeling or religious sentiment are more likely to
arouse deeper interest (Cyprus, Bosnia, Kosovo, Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict)
► Turkey experienced serious governmental instability
► As in other states, the national self-perceptions of foreign policy-makers have also
had important effects (secular democracy and nation-state)
► While Turkish identities are certainly more pluralist than they used to be, the idea
that this would make a coherent FP impossible seems quite exaggerated.
► For the 21st century, the most critical questions for Turkey related, first, to possible
shifts in the basic orientation of US policy; second, to the evolution of the EU and its
member states; third, to domestic political and economic trends in Russia and the
rest of the former Soviet Union; and fourth, to the likely pattern of future politics in
the Middle East.
► Turkey’s status as a middle power to act as a mediator in regional or global disputes