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Peak treadmill running velocity during the VO2 max test

predicts running performance
a a b
T.D. Noakes , K.H. Myburgh & R. Schall
a
Liberty Life Chair of Exercise and Sports Science and MRC/UCT Bioenergetics of Exercise
Research Unit, Department of Physiology, University of Cape Town Medical School,
Observatory, 7925, South Africa
b
Institute of Biostatistics of the Medical Research Council of South Africa, Tygerberg, 7505,
South Africa
Version of record first published: 01 Feb 2008.

To cite this article: T.D. Noakes , K.H. Myburgh & R. Schall (1990): Peak treadmill running velocity during the VO2 max test
predicts running performance, Journal of Sports Sciences, 8:1, 35-45

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 Journal of Sports Sciences, 1990, 8, 35-45

Peak treadmill running velocity during the

VO2 max test predicts running performance
T.D. NOAKES1*, K.H. MYBURGH1 and R. SCHALL2
l
Liberty Life Chair of Exercise and Sports Science and MRC/UCT Bioenergetics of Exercise Research Unit,
Department of Physiology, University of Cape Town Medical School, Observatory, 7925. South Africa
2
Institute of Biostatistics of the Medical Research Council of South Africa, Tygerberg, 7505, South Africa
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Accepted 24 July 1989

Abstract

Twenty specialist marathon runners and 23 specialist ultra-marathon runners underwent maximal
exercise testing to determine the relative value of maximum oxygen consumption (VO2max), peak
treadmill running velocity, running velocity at the lactate turnpoint, VO2 at 16 km h - 1 , % VO2max at
16 km h - 1 , and running time in other races, for predicting performance in races of 10-90 km. Race time
at 10 or 21.1 km was the best predictor of performance at 42.2 km in specialist marathon runners and at
42.2 and 90 km in specialist ultra-marathon runners (r=0.91-0.97). Peak treadmill running velocity
was the best laboratory-measured predictor of performance (r = - 0.88--0.94) at all distances in ultra-
marathon specialists and at all distances except 42.2 km in marathon specialists. Other predictive
variables were running velocity at the lactate turnpoint (r= —0.80--0.92); % VO2max at 16 km h-1
(r=0.76-0.90) and VO2max (r=0.55--0.86). Peak blood lactate concentrations (r=0.68-0.71) and
VO2 at 16 km h - 1 (r=0.10-0.61) were less good predictors.
These data indicate: (i) that in groups of trained long distance runners, the physiological factors that
determine success in races of 10-90 km are the same; thus there may not be variables that predict
success uniquely in either 10 km, marathon or ultra-marathon runners, and (ii) that peak treadmill
running velocity is at least as good a predictor of running performance as is the lactate turnpoint.
Factors that determine the peak treadmill running velocity are not known but are not likely to be
related to maximum rates of muscle oxygen utilization.
Keywords: VO2max, lactate turnpoint, peak treadmill velocity; running performance, marathon,
ultra-marathon.

Introduction

Interest in physiological factors that determine athletic performance can be traced to studies
first performed at the turn of the century (Noakes, 1988). These and other early studies showed
that the peak rates of oxygen consumption (K) 2 max) expressed relative to body weight were
highest in the best endurance athletes (Astrand, 1955; Herbst, 1928; Robinson et al,. 1937).
Subsequent studies led to the conclusion that FO 2 max was the most important determinant of
*To whom correspondence should be addressed.
0264-0414/90 $03.00 + .12 © 1990 E. & F.N. Spon Ltd.
 36 Noakes, Myburgh and Schall
potential'for endurance sports (Costill, 1967; Costill et al, 1973; Foster, 1983; Foster et al,
1977; Leary and Wyndam, 1965; Saltin and Astrand 1967; Wyndham et al., 1969). However,
more modern studies indicate that ^O2max is a weaker predictor of performance and other
variables including running economy (Conley and Krahenbuhl, 1980; LaFontaine et al., 1981;
Sjodin and Schele, 1982), the blood lactate turapoint (Farrell et al, 1979; Fohrenbach et al,
1987; Sjodin and Jacobs, 1981; Sjodin and Schele, 1982; Sjodin and Svedenhag, 1985; Tanaka
and Matsuura, 1984; Tanaka et al, 1983; Yoshida et al, 1987) and the ventilation threshold
(Kumagai et al, 1982; Powers et al, 1983; Rhodes and McKenzie, 1984; Tanaka et al, 1983;
Tanaka et al, 1984; Tanaka et al, 1986) may be superior predictors of running performance.
In a previous study from this laboratory, we found that in a group of runners homogenous
for KO2max but not for running performance, the peak treadmill runnning velocity reached
during the FO2max test was a better predictor of running performance at all distances from
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10-90 km than was the FO2max (Scrimgeour et al, 1986). Furthermore we noted a
relationship between peak treadmill running velocity and running economy; those athletes
who reached the highest treadmill running velocities were also the most economical.
To extend that study, we chose to compare the relative predictive power of a
comprehensive battery of physiological variables including J^O2max, peak treadmill running
velocity, running economy and the running velocity at the blood lactate turnpoint for
running performance at distances from 10-90 km, in a large group of trained runners
specializing either at the marathon or ultra-marathon distance. Only three previous studies
have included peak treadmill running velocity (Morgan et al, 1986; Tanaka et al, 1984) or a
derivative (Daniels et al, 1986) as a possible predictor of running performance and none have
measured all these variables in specialist ultra-marathon runners.

Materials and methods

Forty three subjects were recruited for this study. All were experienced runners who were
studied whilst training specifically for marathon or longer distance races. They reported to
the laboratory on two separate occasions after a 3 h fast. Prior to testing they were weighed
on an electronic scale (Vogel and Halke, Hamburg, West Germany). They then completed a
standardized questionnaire of their training methods and their best times in races of
10-90 km within a 3 month period of being tested.
On the first testing day, the subjects underwent a progressive maximal treadmill test to
exhaustion by methods previously described (Matter et al, 1987; Scrimgeour et al, 1986).
After a 5 min warm-up run, a Jelco intravenous catheter placement unit (Critikon; Tampa,
Fl, USA) was inserted into a subcutaneous forearm vein and connected via pre-heparinized
tubing to a Eyela Microtube Pump MP-3 (Rikakikai Co. Ltd, Tokyo, Japan). The pump
drew blood continuously at a rate of 2 ml min" 1 . From 15-45 s of each minute of the test,
1 ml of blood was collected into tubes containing 2 ml of ice-cold 70% perchloric acid for
later analysis of blood lactate concentrations as previously described (Matter et al, 1987).
Subjects began exercising at 10 km h ~1 with incremental increases of 1 km h ~1 every minute
until exhaustion.
On the second visit to the laboratory, subjects ran for 6 min at each of three submaximal
running speeds chosen according to their athletic ability. In general, the intermediate
running speed was chosen to approximate the athlete's average running speed in races of
42.2 km; the other speeds being 1.5 km h" 1 faster and slower than that speed. The
calibration of the treadmill speed was verified daily with a Smith tachometer.
 Predicting running performance 37

Calculation and expression of results

The ^O2max was taken as the highest rate of oxygen consumption measured during
any 60 s (Noakes, 1988). During treadmill testing expired air was continuously sampled
and the rates of oxygen consumption (J^Oj), carbon dioxide production (^CO2) and
respiratory exchange ratio (RER) were calculated every 3 s by an on-line computer
(Apple) using software (ART) based on conventional equations (Matter et al., 1987;
Scrimgeour et al., 1986). The average value for each minute for each parameter was
stored for later printing.
Peak treadmill running velocity was taken as the highest speed (km h~ *) maintained for a
complete minute during the maximal test. When an athlete was unable to complete 60 s at a
particular treadmill velocity, the velocity of the immediately preceeding, completed work
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stage was recorded as the peak treadmill running velocity.

The mean oxygen consumption during the last 3 min of each run at the submaximal
running speed was used to draw individual graphs of oxygen consumption at the different
running speeds. These graphs were used to determine an oxygen cost at one submaximal
running speed (16 km h" 1 ) for determination of running economy.
Individual graphs of venous blood lactate concentrations at different running speeds were
drawn. Recent findings indicate that during progressive exercise, blood lactate concentra-
tions increase as a continous function rather than as a threshold phenomenon (Hughson et
al, 1987). In this study, the blood lactate turnpoint was determined visually as previously
(Matter et ah, 1987) and expressed as the treadmill velocity (km h~ *) corresponding to the
last blood lactate concentration that immediately preceded the rapid and progressive
increase in blood lactate levels. This point corresponds to the anaerobic threshold (Xt) of the
lactate threshold model (Figure 1 in Hughson et al., 1987). This treadmill velocity was also
expressed as a percentage of the peak treadmill running velocity. The blood lactate
concentration at the lactate turnpoint was also recorded. The highest blood lactate
concentration measured during the first 5 min of recovery was recorded as the peak blood
lactate concentration.

Statistical methods
Means and standard deviations for each variable were calculated by conventional formulae
(Snedecor and Cochran, 1980). Thereafter, linear correlations were performed to correlate
physiological and performance variables with performance at distances between 10 and
90 km. The correlation coefficient between each pair of variables is reported and a t-test was
performed to determine the statistical significance of each correlation (Snedecor and
Cochran, 1980).
In addition multiple linear regression was performed using the all subsets routine
BMDP9R (Dixon, 1985), to select the best independent variables to predict performance
time at 10,21.1 and 42.2 km in the total group of runners and in the sub-groups of specialist
marathon and ultra-marathon runners. In addition the variables predicting performance in
the 90 km ultramarathon in specialist ultramarathon runners were also determined. The best
subset of independent variables was selected according to the smallest Mallow's Cp-criterion
(Weisberg, 1980). The subset with the smallest Cp minimizes the mean squared error of
prediction (Weisberg, 1980).
 38 Noakes, Myburgh and Schall

Results

Table 1 lists the physiological and performance characteristics of the 43 runners. As a group
they were of above-average running ability (mean+S.D. 10 km time of 35.0+3.9 min) with a
relatively high mean FO2max of 66.2 + 8.0 ml O 2 kg" 1 min" 1 . Race times at 10,21.1 and
42.2 km of the specialist marathon runners were faster than those of the specialist ultra-
marathon runners, although only the 10 km time differed significantly (P<0.05). The lactate
turnpoint occurred at 77.4% of the ^O2max which represented 74.7 + 6.2% of the peak
treadmill running velocity. Mean VO2 at 16kmh" J was 51.2 (+3.2 ml kg" 1 min" 1 ),
identical to values reported by Farrell et al. (1979) and Wyndham et al. (1969). This
represented 78.5 (±10.9) % FO2max.
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Table 2 lists the predictive value for performance in races of 10,21.1 and 42.2 km, of the
performance time in other races and the laboratory-measured physiological variables for the
total group of 43 runners. Figure 1 graphically depicts the data for the 42.2 km marathon
with the appropriate regression lines.
For all distances, performance time in other races was the best predictor of performance
(r=0.95-0.98). The best laboratory-derived predictors were peak treadmill running velocity
(r=-0.89—0,94), running velocity at the lactate turnpoint (r=-0.91—0.93) and
fractional utilization of FO2max at 16 km h" 1 (r=0.86-0.90). The KO2max (r = -0.55-
—0.81) and VO2 at 16 km h" 1 (r=0.40-0.45) were the poorest predictors.
Table 3 lists the factors predicting running performance in races between 10 and 42.2 km
in the 20 runners who run races only up to 42.2 km. The findings were almost identical to
those for the total group of runners with the exception that the peak blood lactate level was
identified as an additional predictive variable (r=0.68-0.71) in this group.
Table 4 lists the predictive value of the different variables for running performance in races
from 10-90 km in the 23 runners who competed at all those distances.
Over the whole group, race time at either 10, 21.1 or 42.2 km was the best predictor of
performance at any other distance. The peak treadmill running velocity was the best
laboratory-measured predictor of performance at all distances (r- —0.83—0.93). Whereas
^O2max and % ^O2max at 16 km h" 1 were reasonable performance predictors at 10 km
(r= —0.86 and —0.88), both became progressively poorer predictors as the race distance
increased (r=0.72 and 0.76 at 90 km). In contrast, the running velocity at the lactate
turnpoint became a progressively more important predictor as race distance increased
(r = 0.80 at 90 km). Running economy expressed as VO2 at ^ k m h " 1 was without
predictive value.
Although 21.1 km time, 10 km time and the speed at the lactate turnpoint are the three
variables that correlate best with marathon time (42T - minutes) in the total group
(Table 2), the three variables that, in combination, have the best predictive power are:
21.1 km time in minutes (21T), lactate concentration at the lactate turnpoint (LTP-C) and
speed at the lactate turnpoint expressed as a percent of peak treadmill velocity (LTP - %V).
The following equation has an r-squared value of 0.95 and a Cp of 0.96:
42T=21T (1.98)+LTP-C (6.23)-LTP-%V (0.46) + 33.84 (1)
The contribution of each variable to the r-squared value is 55 %, 1.3 % and 1.2% respectively.
The optimal four-variable model includes the same parameters as well as oxygen
consumption at 16 km h" 1 (FO2-16) and also has an r-squared value of 0.95 but a Cp of
1.06:
 Predicting running performance 39
Table 1. Physiological and performance characteristics of subjects. Mean±s.D.and range
Marathon Ultra-marathon
All subjects specialists specialists
(n=43) (n = 20) (n=23)
Age (years) 32.1 30.6 33.3
±7.2 ±8.1 ±6.3
Mass (kg) 68.8 63.9 71.8
±7.9 ±7.4 ±6.5
Treadmill velocity
Peak 21.3 21.9 20.8
(kmh" 1 ) ±2.0 ±2.2 ±1.8
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17-24 17-24 17-24

At lactate 16.0 16.9 15.2
turnpoint + 2.4 ±2.7 ±1.9
(kmh" 1 ) 11-21 13-21 11-18
Oxygen consumption
^O2max 66.2 68.1 64.5
(ml kg" 1 min"1) ±8.0 ±7.7 ±8.0
53.6-84.2 56.2-84.2 53.6-78.9
?O 2 at 51.2 50.3 52.0
16 k m h - 1 3.2 ±3.2 ±3.1
(ml kg" 1 min"1) 44-57.5 44-57.0 46.5-57.5
^O2max 78.5 74.9 81.6
at 16 kmh" 1 ±10.9 ±10.9 ±10.1
(%) 59-96.6 61-94.7 59-96.6
Racing times
10 km 35.0 33.7 36.21
(min) ±3.9 ±4.4 ±3.1
28.5^2.0 28.5-41.5 31.5^2.0
21.1 km 77.7 74.8 80.2
(min) ±9.7 ±11.1 ±7.6
62.3-95.3 62.3-95.3 68.5-92.0
42.2 km 164.3 159.7 168.3
(min) ±21.6 ±24.8 ±18.1
128.1-206.3 128.1-206.3 142.0-200.0
90 km 450.5
(min) ±72.3
345-592
a
P<0.05 unpaired, two-tailed t-test

42T=21T (1.94) + LTP-C (5.8)-LTP-%V (0.44)+ FO2-16 (0.39) +16.79 (2)

The power of laboratory-measured variables alone to predict marathon time was not as good
as the combination of laboratory-measured variables and performance at other race
distances. The combinations of the treadmill velocity at the lactate turnpoint (LTP-V) and
 40 Noakes, Myburgh and Schall
Table 2. Factors predicting running performance in races from 10 km to 42.2 km in 43 long
distance runners
10 km 21.1 km 42.2 km
21.1 km race time 10 km race time 21.1 km race time
r=0.98 a r=0.98 a r=0.96a
42.2 km race time 42.2 km race time 10 km race time
r=0.95 a r=0.96 a r=0.95 a
Peak treadmill velocity Peak treadmill velocity Running velocity at LTP
r=-0.94 a r = -0.93" r=-0.91a
Running velocity at LTP Running velocity at LTP Peak treadmill velocity
r=-0.91a
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r = -0.90" r = -0.89"
% FO2max at 16 km h" 1 % FO2max at 16 km h" 1 % KO2max at 16 km h~ *
r=0.90a r=O.87a r=0.86a

r= -O.551 r=io.81 a r= io.77"

1 1
VO2 at 16 km h" VO2 at 16 km h"
r=0.41 a r=0.40 a r=0.45a
LTP=Lactate turnpoint

LTP-%V, as well as LTP-V and peak treadmill velocity (PTV) had r-squared values of 0.87
and generated the following predictive equations with Cps of — 0.54 and — 0.33 respectively:
42T=LTP-% V (1.29) - LTP-V (10.86)+241.3 (3)
42T = LTP-V ( - 4.92) - PTV (4.46)+337.8 (4)
In these two cases LTP-V contributed approximately 50% to the r-squared value.

Discussion

There were two important findings in this study. First, we found that the best predictor of
running performance at any distance from 10-90 km in trained marathon and ultra-
marathon runners was performance at another running distance. This was also found by
Farrell et al. (1979) who concluded that the runners who were fastest at the longer distances
were also fastest at the shorter distances. They were understandably cautious of
extrapolating their data to runners who specialized at either short or long distances. Tanaka
and Matsuura (1984) also found that 10 km time predicted 42.2 km time although, in
contrast to this study, it was a less good predictor than was the lactate turnpoint.
Our finding that race time at 10 km or 21 km is the best predictor of performance in both
the 42.2 km marathon in specialist marathon runners and in the 90 km ultra-marathon in
specialist ultra-marathon runners, indicates that the fastest marathon and ultra-marathon
runners are also the fastest over the shorter distances. This indicates that in trained marathon
and ultramarathon runners, the physiological factors determining success at those distances
are no different from those that determine success in shorter distance races of 10 or 21 km.
 Predicting running performance 41
21.1 km TIME (mm)
% V02 max AT 16 km/h

95

10 km TIME (mm)
r - 0,86

VO2 max (ml/kg/min)

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85 r - - 0,77

r - 0.95 • •

SPEED AT LACTATE TURNPOINT (km/h)

r - - 0,91

45
VO2AT 16 km/h (ml/kg/min)

10 57
PEAK TREADMILL SPEED (km/h)
r--0,89

16
120 140 160 180 200 220 140 160 180 200 220
MARATHON TIME (min) MARATHON TIME (min)
Fig. 1. Individual data with linear regressions for 21.1 km time, 10 km time, speed at the
lactate turnpoint, peak treadmill speed (left panel), % KO2max at 16 km h" 1 , KO2max
and f^O2 at 16 km h " ' (right panel) with 42.2 km race time for 43 long distance runners

This suggests that there may be no unique physiological characteristics that distinguish long
distance (10 km) runners, marathon runners and ultra-marathon runners as is usually
believed (Pollock et al., 1980). Rather it may be that selective factors force the slower 10 km
runners to specialize at the marathon and ultra-marathon distances as previously proposed
(Noakes, 1987) and as occurred in this study (Table 1). Alternatively, training for marathon
and longer distance races may impair 10 km running performance.
Furthermore, the finding that performance in races of 10 km or 21.1km predicts
performance in ultra-marathon races, suggests that the rate of muscle glycogen depletion,
which is not likely to be a factor determining 10 km or 22.1 km race time'(Sherman et al.,
1981) may not contribute significant additional information for the prediction of marathon
and ultra-marathon running performance, at least in trained long distance runners.
 42 Noakes, Myburgh and Schall

Table 3. Factors predicting running performance in races between 10 and 42.2 km in 20 runners
who competed only in races up to 42.2 km
10 km 21.1 km 42.2 km
21.1 km race time 10 km race time 10 km race time
r=0.99a r=0.99 a r=0.96a
42.2 km time 42.2 km time 21.1 km time
r=0.96" r=0.96 a r=0.96a
Peak treadmill Peak treadmill Running velocity
velocity velocity at LTP
r= -0.94* r= -0.93 1 r= -0.93"
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Running velocity at LTP Running velocity at LTP % ^O 2 maxat l e k m h " 1

r= -0.92* r=-0.91" r=0.89a
% ^O2max at 16 km h" 1 % fO2max at 16 km h" 1 Peak treadmill velocity
r=0.90" r=0.88 a r= -0.88"
KO2max FO2max KO2max
r= -0.82' r=-0.81a r= -0.79 a
Peak blood lactate Peak blood lactate Peak lactate blood
concentration concentration concentration
r=0.71* r=0.68 a r=0.68*
fO2atl6kmlTl ^atiekmh"1 ^O 2 at 16kmh-'
r=0.59a r=0.57a r=0.61 a
LTP = Lactate turnpoint
a
P<0.01

The second important finding was that in this heterogeneous group of runners with a wide
range of performances, the best laboratory-measured predictor of running performance at all
distances in the ultra-marathon runners (Table 4) and at all distances except the marathon in
the marathon runners (Table 3) was the peak treadmill running velocity achieved during the
^O2max test. The predictive value of the running velocity at the lactate turnpoint was almost
as good and increased with the race distance. Although both FO2max and % ^O2max at
16 km h" 1 also predicted performance, their predictive values were less good (Tables 2-4).
The equation that best predicted running performance at 42.2 (Equation 1) combined
21.1 km running time with two variables related to the lactate turnpoint - the blood lactate
concentration at the lactate turnpoint and the running velocity at the lactate turnpoint
expressed as a % of peak treadmill running velocity. It is also interesting to note that
independent variables which correlated well with the dependent variable, did not necessarily
provide the best predictive combinations.
Factors that were without predictive value include peak post-exercise blood lactate
concentrations, peak heart rates and running economy at 16 km h" 1 expressed either as an
absolute oxygen cost or relative to body weight.
In summary, this study shows that the physiological variables determining success at
distances from 10-90 km are not different, at least in marathon and ultramarathon
specialists. This suggests that with the appropriate training for longer distance events, the
fastest 10 km runners will also be the fastest marathon and ultramarathon runners. This
 Predicting running performance 43
Table 4. Factors predicting running performance in races between 10 and 90 km in 23 ultra-
marathon runners

10 km 21.1 km 42.2 km 90 km
21.1 km race time 10 km race time 21.1 km race time 10 km race time
r=0.97 a r=0.97 a r=0.97a r=0.92 a
42.2 km race time 42.2 km race time 10 km race time 42.2 km race time
r=O.95a r=0.97 a r=0.95 a r=0.92a
Peak treadmill Peak treadmill 90 km race time 21.1 km race time
velocity velocity
r= -0.93" r= -0.92' r=0.92a r=0.91 a
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90 km race 90 km race Peak treadmill Peak treadmill

time time velocity velocity
r=0.92a r=0.92 a r = -0.90" r = -0.83"
% F02max at % fO2max at Running velocity Running velocity
16 km IT 1 atLTP atLTP
r=0.88a r=O.85a r = -0.88" r = -0.80"
Running velocity % KO2max at % K02max at
atLTP
r=-0.86 a r = -0.84' r=0.84a r=0.76a
Running velocity KO2max KO2max
atLTP
r = -0.86" r= -0.83" r = -0.76" r = -0.72"

r=0.10NS r=0.10NS r=0.2NS r=0.13 NS

LTP=lactate turnpoint
"P<0.01
NS = non significant

postulate is supported by the athletic records of the best runners at those distances (Noakes,
1987).
We also show that the peak treadmill running velocity is a better predictor of performance
at all distances except the 42 km marathon in specialist marathon runners than is the lactate
turnpoint, the variable which in all previous studies has been shown to be the best predictor
of peformance (Farrell et al., 1979; Fohrenbach et ah, 1987; Lehmann et al., 1983; Sjodin and
Jacobs, 1981; Sjodin and Schele, 1982; Sjodin and Svedenhag, 1985; Tanaka and Matsuura,
1984; Tanaka et al., 1983; Yoshida et al, 1987). Clearly this or a related variable must in
future always be reported in similar studies or in studies in which the effects of training on
physiological variables are reported.
The physiological determinants of peak treadmill running velocity are not known. If the
absolute rate of oxygen consumption was the most important determinant of peak treadmill
running velocity, then FO2max would be an equivalent predictor of running performance.
That it is not indicates that the absolute rate of oxygen consumption cannot be the principal
determinant of the peak treadmill running velocity.
 44 Noakes, Myburgh and Schall
The possibility that peak treadmill running velocity may be determined by factors other
than tissue oxygen availability has been argued elsewhere (Noakes, 1988).

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Medical Research Council of South Africa, the Harry
Crossley and Nellie Atkinson Research Funds of the University of Cape Town, the South
African Association for Sport Science, Physical Education and Recreation, the South African
Road Runners Association and Warner Lambert Research Laboratories.
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