Covid-19 situation in china explained

in simple language
By Prof.Dr.D.Rajkumar, Treasurer, IAP TN ID
chapter
What is really happening there?
Situation is really really terrible there with
Covid19 spreading like a wildfire currently.

Which variant of Covid19 is responsible for this?

BF7 variant derived from BA.5 variant of Omicron
is causing this epidemic.

Why is this happening now?

1. China avoided Covid19 till the mid 2022 with a
very strict “Zero covid policy”. As such, china has
avoided major Covid19 outbreaks sofar , leaving
the population largely susceptible to new
infections. But this “Zero covid policy” resulted in
a lot of difficulties for the common people there
who rose up in a mini revolt this year. So finally
authorities relented and loosened up the Zero
covid policy.
2. Around the same time, BF7 a subtype of
Omicron BA.5 variant sneaked through Hong
Kong. This BF7 has some peculiar features – A
very short incubation period, Extremely
communicable, Does not respond to Covid19
antibody treatment, etc.
With a transmissible factor R0 around 16 😱,
BF7 can spread like wildfire and will not be
controlled with any measures applied.
3. Poor vaccination uptake – Even though, chinese
trumpeted that they have vaccinated more than
100 crore people, in reality the vaccine uptake
was around 40 percent among elderly people of
above 60 years. These are the people who are
severely affected and suffering currently.
4.Less effective vaccines – Sinopharm, sinovac etc
have a very low sero conversion rate and their
immunity produced is also short lived around 3 –
6 months
What are the implications for china of this BF7
epidemic in China?
Epidemic will spread to nooks and corners of
china causing millions of infections and lakhs of
deaths mostly in 60+ population. Chinese
government faces hard choices in the coming
months balancing economic/schooling activities
against the prospect of substantial Death,
particularly in the 60+ population. Eventually by
2023 summer, they will get out of this tight
situation.

What are the implications for the world from this

Covid19 wave in China?
As china is a major manufacturing hub, more
supply chain issues and subsequent shortages of a
lot of essential items like Antibiotics, Electronics,
etc in the short term for the whole world.
 Rapid spread of a variant in crores of people
in a short period might spawn new covid variants
which might spillover into other parts of the world
and start a new cycle of epidemics is a remote yet
possible scenario in the medium to long term
period
What will happen if the same BF7 variant
reaches India?
Nothing to worry. BF.7 has been detected for
the past 4 – 5 months in several countries around
the world including India, the U.S , the U.K. and
several European countries.
Repeated Covid19 infections, vaccination of
majority of people, good immunogenicity of our
vaccines and circulation of a lot of other variants
like XBB, BQ1 and BA.2 has limited the ability of
this BF7 from establishing it’s dominance in India
and currently only a handful of BF7 cases are
reported here.