Ian Whittingham, PMP

© Ian Whittingham 2013

 Why should we care about what the future will look like?
 We will find out when we get there! But will we like what we see
when we do?
 Every day, on every project, somewhere in the world a project
manager is thinking about the future of his or her project
 Managing a project requires that a project manager is able to
 anticipate future changes
 look ahead and adjust the project schedule or scope or budget
 envision the eventual outcome of the project
 Our job demands that we must equip ourselves to be always looking
into the future
 So, if that’s what our job demands, what might a project manager of
the future look like?

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013
 The best way to look into the future is to first look into the past
 Why? Because a good project manager always learns from their past
experience and applies that experience to future challenges
 But how does that help us with finding out what project management
will look like in the future?
 If you look at how people in the past envisioned their future—what they
got right, and what they got wrong in their predictions—it might give us
some clues as to what we can expect to encounter in our future
 This is how the year 2000 looked to someone in 1910…

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013
Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013
 But it was fully fifteen seconds before the round plate that she held in her hands
began to glow. A faint blue light shot across it, darkening to purple, and
presently she could see the image of her son, who lived on the other side of the
earth, and he could see her…
 She knew several thousand people… Few travelled in these days, for, thanks to
the advance of science, the earth was exactly alike all over… What was the good
of going to Peking when it was just like Shrewsbury? Why return to
Shrewsbury when it would all be like Peking?

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

 And this is how someone envisioned that scene in 1966…

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

 Then she generated the light, and the sight of her room, flooded with radiance and
studded with electric buttons, revived her. There were buttons and switches
everywhere – buttons to call for music, for clothing… There was the button that
produced literature. And there were of course the buttons by which she
communicated with her friends. The room, though it contained nothing, was in
touch with all she cared for in the world.

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013
There were clicks to call for music,
for clothing… There was the click
that produced literature… the
clicks by which she communicated
with her friends…

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

 A tendency, when predicting the shape of things to come, to over-
value and misapply the importance of current technology when it is
projected onto the far—and not so far—future
 Do not fixate on tools and technologies. Look beyond them to the
social context in which tools and technologies are used by people
 Do pay close attention to the perennial social interests, aspirations
and needs that we all share as human beings
 And always remember, everyone—including project managers—want
an easy, uncomplicated life…

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013
 Future Development of Project Management Competences, a study conducted
by A.J. Gilbert Silvius & Ronald Batenberg (University of Utrecht),
published in 2009
 To determine which project management competences might be most
needed by project managers to manage their projects in the future
 Polled 124 members of the Dutch IPMA (International Project
Management Association) and itSMF (IT Service Management Forum)
 Asked members to grade (on a rank of 1 to 7) each of the 46 IPMA
competences on the basis of whether a particular competence would be
less important, equally important, or more important to the management
of projects in the future (in 2027) than it was today (in 2007)

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013
 Technical competence (20) elements deal with the project
management matter, on which the professionals are working
(examples: Scope & deliverables, Time & project phases, Quality,
Changes, Communication, etc.)
 Behavioural competence (15) elements deal with the personal
relationships between the individuals and groups managed in the
projects, programmes and portfolios (examples: Leadership,
Negotiation, Conflict & crisis, Ethics, etc.)
 Contextual competence (11) elements deal with the interaction of the
project team within the context of the project and with the permanent
organisation (examples: Programme orientation, Legal, Health,
safety, security & environment, etc.)

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

 Social context in which the future world of 2027 might exist was
included as a part of the grading process
 Competences graded against four different future geo-political
scenarios taken from the Four Futures of Europe, a 2006 study
conducted by the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
 Four scenarios derived from applying two key uncertainties,
international cooperation and the role of national institutions (both
public and private), in both weak and strong combinations
 Outcomes of four scenarios exert varying degrees of influence over
how policy, regulatory and trade decisions are made
 These decisions influence competition, innovation, and economic
growth in different ways, creating different economic environments
within which projects are managed
 Do different environments emphasize the need for different
competences?

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 All competences were graded above the mean (4.00), meaning they
were viewed as valuable and durable skills now and in the future
 Some variance observed in grading across the four different
scenarios but results gave a fairly consistent view as to which
competences were most valued
 Differences in grading reflect the intensity of development of the
competences (i.e. how needed they are expected to be by
respondents) under each scenario
 Stronger variances above the mean—those competences weighted as
more important in the future—give an indication as to what kind of
project environments respondents expect to encounter in the future
 The perception that all competences will grow in importance—as
reflected in the grading—indicates that respondents expect project
management to become more complex in the future

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

Competence Mean ranking Standard
deviation
1.18 Communication (TC) 5.25 1.11
3.01 Project Orientation (CC) 4.90 1.00
3.11 Legal (CC) 4.90 1.06
1.19 Start-up (TC) 4.85 1.10
1.02 Interested parties (TC) 4.82 0.96
2.05 Relaxation (BC) 4.76 0.97
3.09 Health, security, safety & 4.74 1.12
environment (CC)
2.04 Assertiveness (BC) 4.71 0.97
2.07 Creativity (BC) 4.71 1.00
2.09 Efficiency (BC) 4.34 0.83
3.10 Finance (CC) 4.26 0.83
1.17 Information & documentation (TC) 4.10 0.90

Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013

 Communication ranked as top competence
 Leadership was only ranked 20th among the 46 competencies
 Three Technical competences ranked in top 5
 General assumption of a growing emphasis on Behavioral
competences (soft skills) over Technical competences (hard skills) as
being more important to project management in the future is not
necessarily confirmed by this study
 From 1910 to 2007, whenever we think about the future it is always a
complex, fast-moving, ever-changing world we see ahead of us
 We value communication highly in order to navigate and control
complexity via our interactions with one another, with whatever
technologies of the day are available to us to do that
 We cannot know what the future will bring, but by investing in the
development of our project management competences we can
acquire the right skills and knowledge to meet whatever challenges
the unknown future might throw at us
Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013
Any Questions?
Back to the Future © Ian Whittingham 2013