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  • YOPMAN production forecasting techniques

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    Eliza Jayne Princess Vizconde
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    The document discusses different forecasting techniques: exponential smoothing, moving average, and time series regression. It provides examples of each with sample data and calculations of measures like mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Exponential smoothing is performed with an alpha of 0.1, moving average uses a 3-month window, and time series regression finds the intercept, slope, and forecasting equation to predict future demand.

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    Approaches to Forecasting

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    The document discusses different forecasting techniques: exponential smoothing, moving average, and time series regression. It provides examples of each with sample data and calculations of measures like mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Exponential smoothing is performed with an alpha of 0.1, moving average uses a 3-month window, and time series regression finds the intercept, slope, and forecasting equation to predict future demand.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    5 views3 pages

    YOPMAN production forecasting techniques

    Uploaded by

    Eliza Jayne Princess Vizconde
    The document discusses different forecasting techniques: exponential smoothing, moving average, and time series regression. It provides examples of each with sample data and calculations of measures like mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Exponential smoothing is performed with an alpha of 0.1, moving average uses a 3-month window, and time series regression finds the intercept, slope, and forecasting equation to predict future demand.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 3

    YOPMAN - PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT (WITH LABORATORY)

    Approaches to Forecasting
    I. Forecasting Exponential Smoothing
    Sample Problem:

    Perform exponential smoothing technique with alpha = 0.10, and compute for MAD, MSE, and MAPE

    Period Demand Forecast Absolute Error Error2 (Absolute Error / AD)*100


    January 300
    February 356
    March 387
    April 381
    May 347
    June 352
    July
    Total
    MAD
    MSE
    MAPE

    Answer:

    Period Demand Forecast Absolute Error Error2 (Absolute Error / AD)*100


    January 300
    February 356 300 56 3,136 15.73%
    March 387 305.60 81.40 6,625.96 21.03%
    April 381 313.74 67.26 4,523.91 17.65%
    May 347 320.47 26.53 703.84 7.65%
    June 352 323.12 28.88 834.05 8.20%
    July 326.01
    Total
    MAD 52.01
    MSE 3,164.75
    MAPE 14.05

    Solution:

    P a g e 1|3
    Jay]
    YOPMAN - PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT (WITH LABORATORY)
    Approaches to Forecasting
    II. Moving Average
    Problem:

    Perform a 3-month moving average technique, compute for MAD, MSE, and MAPE

    Period Demand Forecast Absolute Error Error2 (Absolute Error / AD)*100


    January 300
    February 356
    March 387
    April 381
    May 347
    June 352
    July
    Total
    MAD
    MSE
    MAPE

    Answer:

    Period Demand Forecast Absolute Error Error2 (Absolute Error / AD)*100


    January 300
    February 356
    March 387
    April 381 347.67 33.33 1,110.89 8.75%
    May 347 374.67 27.67 765.63 7.97%
    June 352 371.67 19.67 386.91 5.59%
    July 360
    Total 80.67 2,263.43 22.31%
    MAD 26.89
    MSE 754.48
    MAPE 7.44%

    Solution:

    P a g e 2|3
    Jay]
    YOPMAN - PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT (WITH LABORATORY)
    Approaches to Forecasting
    III. Forecasting Time Series Regression
    Problem:

    Period x Actual Demand xy x2


    January 300
    February 356
    March 387
    April 381
    May 347
    June 352
    Total

    1) What is the intercept (a-intercept)?


    2) What is the slope (b)?
    3) What is the forecasting equation?
    4) What is the forecast for September

    Answer:

    Period x Actual Demand xy x2


    January 1 300 300 1
    February 2 356 712 4
    March 3 387 1,161 9
    April 4 381 1,524 16
    May 5 347 1,735 25
    June 6 352 2,112 36
    Total 21 2,123 7,544 91

    1) What is the intercept (a-intercept)? 331.12


    2) What is the slope (b)? 6.49
    3) What is the forecasting equation? Y = 331.12+6.49x
    4) What is the forecast for September 389.53

    Solution:

    P a g e 3|3
    Jay]

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