Foreign Policy Of Pakistan:

Its Determinants, History,

Challenges And Way Forward

Instructor:
Muhmmad Usman Arif
Pakistan Administrative service
18th position in Pakistan, CSS 2020

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● Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us.
● John F. Kennedy

● No foreign policy - no matter how ingenious - has any chance of success if it is born in the
minds of a few and carried in the hearts of none.
● Henry A. Kissinger

● If you know a country's geography, you can understand and predict its foreign policy.
● Napoleon Bonaparte

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What is Foreign Policy?

Foreign Policy is the key element in the process by which a state translates its
broadly conceived goals and interests into concrete courses of action to attain
these objectives and preserve its interests.-The Dynamics of International
Politics by Padelford and Lincoln

The use of a state’s political influence in order to induce other states to exercise
their law making power in a manner desired by the state concerned. - Prof
Northedge

Complex and Dynamic political course that a nation follows in relation to other
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What is Foreign Policy?

 Foreign policy encompasses the tactics and process by which a nation interacts with other
nations in order to further its own interests
 Foreign policy may make use of diplomacy or other more direct means such as aggression
rooted in military power
 The development of foreign policy is influenced by domestic considerations, the policies or
behavior of other states, or plans to advance specific geopolitical designs.
 Earlier writers discussed Primacy of geography and external threats in shaping foreign policy,
but later writers emphasized domestic factors.
 Diplomacy is the tool of foreign policy, and war, alliances, and international trade may all be
manifestations of it

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Significance of foreign policy

 National interests do not change but policies are changed to achieve it.[Dr-Zbigniew].
 No state can live in isolation or stay totally indifferent to what is happening in the
international system.
 The developments outside the boundaries of a state have implications for its domestic affairs
and the goals it pursues all the National and international level.
 National interests stem from the historical and ideological perspective and the major
economic and geopolitical considerations.
 Survival and security are the major objectives of foreign policy. These are coupled with
securing material welfare and prosperity for the people.
 Established norms of international conducts such as the charter of the united Nations which
underlines [1] peace, [2] Justice [3] equality [4] Tolerance [5] Fundamental Human Rights.
 The Foreign policy of a country, however, can not be static.
 There can be no eternal friends nor can there be eternal enemies in International relations
only eternal factor is the national interests. [Lord Palmerstone.].

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Foreign Policy Of Pakistan

● Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, outlined the following goals of Pakistan’s foreign policy
in 1948:

● “Our foreign policy is one of friendliness and goodwill towards all the nations of the world. We
do not cherish aggressive designs against any country or nation. We believe in the principle of
honesty and fair play in national and international dealings and are prepared to make our
utmost contribution to the promotion of peace and prosperity among the nations of the world.
Pakistan will never be found lacking in extending its material and moral support to the
oppressed and suppressed peoples of the world, and in upholding the principles of the
United Nations Charter”

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Common national Interests

Economic Prosperity.
Protection of Ideology.
security of Nation and
State.
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PRINCIPLES OF FOREIGN POLICY

1.
PEACEFUL CO-EXISTENCE.

2.
NON-ALIGNMENT

3.
Pakistan has not shown alignment with any block, and has established good relationship with
all the countries. Therefore, now Pakistan is trying to establish good relationship with Russia,
United States of America, People Republics of China, United Kingdom, France and other
countries and excepts the same from others of significant importance. At present Pakistan is

also a regular member of Non-aligned Movement (NAM)

4. BILATERALISM.
5. Pakistan wants to develop its relations with all countries on the basis of bilateralism.
Therefore, Pakistan has invited India many times to solve the Kashmir dispute by negotiation

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Cont…

1. UNITED NATIONS CHARTER

2.
Pakistan is a member of United Nations and follows its charter strictly. Therefore Pakistan has
supported every action of the United Nations and provided military assistance to implement its
decisions.

3. SUPPORT TO RIGHT SELF-DETERMINATION

4. Pakistan supports the right of self-determination of all the suppressed nations. Pakistan
believes that every nation must have the right of self determination. Therefore, Pakistan has
supported the demand of abolishing the colonialism and every movement for the exercise of
the right of self-determination in Europe, Africa and Asia. Pakistan has played very important
role in the struggle of independence of Kashmir, Palestine, Bosnia, Namibia and Vietnam. It
has also opposed the occupation of Afghanistan by Russia and helped the Afghanis to get the
liberation from foreign rule.
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Cont…

1. UNITY OF ISLAMIC WORLD

2.
Pakistan is the supporter of the unity of Islamic world, and is following the policy to establish good
relation with Muslims countries. Pakistan has always tried to solve the conflicts of Islamic World and
played very important role in Iran-Iraq war, Kuwait’s occupation by Iraq, Palestine’s liberation, and
Afghanistan’s liberation. Pakistan is an active member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation
(OIC). Pakistan has provided a platform for Muslim countries of Central Asia to solve their economic
problems by establishing Economic cooperation Organization.
3. DE-WEAPONIZATION
4.
Pakistan is the main supporter of de-weaponization and supported all international efforts to de-
weaponise the world. Therefore, Pakistan is not in the race of weaponization. Pakistan uses atomic
energy for peaceful purposes. Pakistan tries to avoid the danger of nuclear war in the world. Pakistan
has repeatedly suggested for the de-weaponisation of South Asia, but India has not responded it
accordingly.

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Cont…

1. ELIMINATION OF RACIAL DISCRIMINATION

2. Pakistan wants to eliminate the racial discrimination throughout the world. Pakistan has protested over
racial discrimination in South Africa, Namibia nd Rhodesia. There is no racial discrimination in Pakistan
and all the minorities in Pakistan have equal rights.
3. ESTABLISHMENT OF PEACE
4. Pakistan wants establishment of peace throughout the world. Pakistan has also protested against
aggressive powers, desires, and supported the oppressed nations for getting the peace. Pakistan has
repeatedly invited India to negotiate peace in South Asia but it has rejected every move.
5. GOOD RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBOUR
6.
Pakistan wants good relationship with all neighbours including India. Pakistan also wants to solve all
the issues with neighbouring countries including Kashmir issue with India peacefully. Therefore,
Pakistan has invited India for talks at any time, at every level and at every place.

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Examples:
1. FP of Pakistan regarding Duarand line issue, commensurates with the priority of safeguarding its territorial
integrity.
2. The oversees Pakistani portals and consulates extension of services to citizens abroad serve to secure
citizens interests
3. Multilateral Talks like WEF Webinar, links Pakistan with world community on issues of common and
shared values viz a viz climate change etc
4. Pakistan's recent dossier regarding India demonstrates its aggressive policy towards Indian adventurism.
5. Pakistan's foreign policy towards major powers eg China, USA reflects its economic agenda and interests
with them , that guide its foreign policy into that direction

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Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)
Determinants of Foreign Policy

What is a determinant? factors influencing a

particular issue.
Types? May be endogenous, exogenous.
Determinants of Foreign Policy are intact factors
affecting the FP of Pakistan?

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•Internal Factors •External Factors
•Size
•Geography •Power Structure
•Culture and History
•International Organization
•Economic Development
•Tech Advancements
•Reaction of Other States
•National Capacity
•Social Structure •Alliances
•Public Mood
•Political Organization and
Leadership
•Press

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What are the determinants of Pak
FP?
Learning from the history of Pak Foreign Policy

An analysis
 “Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy
can kill us” are the words of the 35th President of the
United States of American, John F. Kennedy
1. Alliance with the West
● Became part of US camp
● Military Assistance (SEATO, CENTO)
U2 Incident (1960)
● Ayub Khan statement

● China India bhai bhai, relations changed.

● Interrelated developments:

○ USSR-China rifts (Ideological differences)

○ China India rifts (Tibetan Issue, Dalai Lama Issue,
Regional hegemonic agenda)

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2. The path correction; 1965 war and
its aftereffect
● Pakistan’s main source of arms supply  US
● 1962 Sino-Indo war: US help of India
● Arms embargo in 1965-1975 war by Johnson
Administration
● Diversification of F P  Search for more friends
○ Outreach to Communist countries (China)
○ More cordial ties with Islamic world and OIC
foundation (Saudia especially)
● Border agreement with China in 1963, China becomes a
cornerstone in Pak F P
● Pakistan’s outreach to USSR, Ayub khan’s visit to
Moscow, act as balancer in 1965 war (Tashkant
declaration)

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3. Bangal debacle; a turning point

● USSR-India Treaty of peace, friendship and cooperation

with military clause
● Withdrawal from SEATO and CENTO
● Joined non-alignment movement
● Indian attempt to make nuclear weapons, Pak response
and US reactionary sanctions

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1979 and USSR’s graveyard in
making in Afghanistan
● Why Zia opted to side with US?
○ To legitimize its rule
○ To help Afghanistan
○ To get access to sophisticated military hardware
from the US
● A blind eye on Pak Nuclear Program
● China, US interests converged in Afgan

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The era of Western Sanctions:

● Glenn Amendment
● Nuclear tests
● Support from Muslim Countries
● 1999 war with India
● Domestic political crisis
● Support to Mujahidin and Taliban coming to power
● Policy of Islamization resulted in radicalism within the
country

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WOT and a new era
● Major non-Nato ally
● Help from Western Countries

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2018 elections and Shift
in FP ● Afghan dilemma; revocation of special status of IIOK;
CPEC, the center of great power rivalry; Saudia-Iran
issue
● Focus on geo-Economics
● Efforts to normalize ties with foes
● Civil-military synchronization in policy matters
● Long term strategic thinking

○ Afghan peace process

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Presented by Muhammad Usman (PAS, CSS 2020 18th Position)

Foreign Policy Constants of Pakistan

Survival Peace Within India-

Peace Without centric

Economic Brotherly Ties

Interests with Muslim
Ummah
EVALUATION OF
PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN
POLICY
An analysis of various milestones in the history of Pakistan’s foreign
policy would enable us to draw some conclusions regarding both its
achievements and flaws
Neglect of Long-Term Interests
Pakistan decided to join the Western bloc
• Benefits  Economic assistance, Link with UK,
• Consequences:  Client state of US, Hostility with USSR, Dependency
Syndrome

by encouraging military adventurism as reflected by the Gibraltar

Operation that led to the Pakistan-India war of 1965 and the disastrous
Kargil Operation of 1999,
Neglect of Economic Development
• Economic growth become slow
• Iran-pak Gas pipeline
• No lessons learned from history USSR deferat, Deng Xiaoping era

Overdependence on Foreign
Assistance
Absence of a Coherent and Skillful
Grand Strategy
The mismanagement of the East Pakistan crisis in 1971 was a classic
example of the total failure of the state apparatus to chart out coherent
political, security, and foreign policies to safeguard the territorial
integrity of the country
Absence of Strategic Dynamism and
Far-Sightedness
Our foreign policy during the East Pakistan crisis of 1971,
our Afghanistan policies of the 1990s the Kargil Operation of 1999 are
classic examples of ignoring or misjudging emerging international trends,
and of our inability to look beyond the current and the immediate issues,
leading ultimately to disastrous results

Exception case
One notable exception was Pakistan’s decision in the early 1960s to
enter into a strategic partnership with the People’s Republic of China in
the face of the US opposition. It was an example of strategic farsightedness
that has stood the test of time
Absence of an Inspiring Vision and Well-
Considered National Priorities
Pakistan’s leadership repeatedly embarked upon military adventures,
particularly in 1965 and 1999, in the management of relations with India
 Strategic Overstretch and Neglect of
Regional and Global Security
Environment
Example
the Kashmir and Afghanistan policies pursued by Pakistan in 1990s are
telling examples of the reckless manner in which we have pursued our
security and foreign policies.

As Liddell Hart has pointed out, “The experience of history brings ample
evidence that the downfall of civilized states tends to come not from the
direct assaults of foes but from internal decay, combined with the
consequences of exhaustion in war.
IN A NUTSHELL: FLAWS OF
PAK’S FP
Lack of sychronization
Based on short term strategies
Indefinite national priorities
Lack of diplomacy
Ambitious foriegn policy
Lack of dynamicism
Reactive nature
Dependence on foreign aid
TESTS OF A SOUND FP
foreign policy must be synchronized with the national security and
economic policies

a sound foreign policy must reflect the relative importance or priorities of

the nation’s internal and external objectives that it is expected to support or
achieve
• Deng Xiaoping decided at the end of 1978 to assign the highest priority to
the goal of economic development and to subordinate everything else to
this supreme goal
foreign policy must strike the right balance between the attainment of
short-term and long-term national objectives
Strategic control
realistic assessment of the regional and international environment
CURRENT Challenges to Foreign Policy of Pakistan
• Internal Challenges
• Internal Security Situation (Baluchistan conundrum)
Pakistan ranked seventh- with a score of 7.5 - on the index that measures
the impact of terrorism.
Border Porosity and Afghan Spill Over?
LEA (Police) Capacity Issues
Cross border involvement in Baluchistan via Iran and Afghanistan
(Kalbhoshan Yadev Case) and CPEC Threat

Recent Terrorsit activities in Balochistan and in KPK

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• Political Instability
PDM, PTI fiasco etc
Freedom House Rating of Partially Democratic and Partially Free

• Civil-Military Frictions
Dawn Leaks
Securitized Strategic Culture

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• Economically Trying Circumstances
Double Digit Inflation, Poverty accentuation and pandemic struck
Employment Indices

IMF Bailout Package Doom and Gloom

Stagnant Agri Growth, Declining Services and Mildly Improved Industry
Macroeconomic Crises (Debt Servicing, Structural Adjustment, CAD, Circular Debt)
FDI Issues?

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• Corruption Scourge and Bad Governance

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 Challenges to Foreign Policy of Pakistan
• External Challenges
• Taliban Govt in Afghan
• Indian Belligerence (False Flags, Disinformation, UN Trivialization) in Kashmir
• US-China Strategic Competition ( Indopacific Strategy)
• Bottlenecks of CPEC
• Rising INDO-US-ISRAELI Troika ‘
• Terror Hub Label and Image Issues
• Iran Saudi Rivalry
• CAREC Questions (TAPI, CASA 1000)
• EU and GSP Plus Status
• Nuclear Security and International Concerns.
• Indian Space Race Antics

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 WAY FORWARD INTERNAL CHALLENGES
 Maintaining The Momentum Against Terrorism and Radicalization. 3Ns (NAP, NACTA, NISP)

 Democratic Continuity-Tapping the inbuilt Weeding and Pruning Ability of Democratic Process

 Fostering a Productive National Debate in House and in Media-Nationally Pertinent Narrative

Building

 Social Vulnerability Nets to Curtail IMF Consequences, Structural Reforms ,Enhancing Ease of
Doing Business (FDI), Hoarders Crackdown and Digitization of Economy

 Charter of Governance-Inter-Institutional Power Sharing Accord

 Robust Failsafe Accountability Mechanism: Xi’s Tigers and Flies Case in Point

 E-Governance Model Implementation

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CA with Sir Usman PAS 0323-3397402
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Way Forward External Challenges

• Indian Belligerence
Resolution of Outstanding issues including Kashmir.
• Convincing India to Undo unilateral annexation of Kashmir and restoring its
special status by involving regional players like China and Russia.
• Furthermore, developing a robust media strategy to internationalize the issue
• build International pressure to resolve the issue.
• Solution to be in accordance with international commitments under UN.
• A proposed formula can be Demilitarization, UN Trusteeship for a period of 3
years followed by plebiscite
Reducing coldness in relationship with Iran. Realizing the opportunity to foster
alliance with IRAN in the wake of India’s dilly dallying on Chabahar Port, China
showing interest in Iran and Iran refusing Indian role in Gas field pipeline project.
Also joint markets is a step in the right direction.
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Initiating CBMs with India
• Depoliticization of Water and restoration of talks

• Latching onto the Track-2 Olive Branches

• Kartharpur Corridor Soft Power Media strategy( Realisng a new Hindu corridor)-
Assignment

• People to People Contacts-Fostering Healthy Relationships

• Trans-border messengers of peace: Intelligentsia and Artists

Utilization of Regional Cooperation Mechanisms like SAARC and SCO to foster trade ties and
realising the potential of enegry corridor- IPI, TAPI, CASA1000- Building geo-economic
bridges to entwine two nations together in the long term.- Assignment (Pak-India Trade
Current and Potential, CASA-1000? TAPI? IPI?)

Deepening China Ties to counterbalance Indo-US-Israel Nexus

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US-China Strategic Competition and INDO-US-ISRAELI TROIKA (
Support to claims of China,
Indopacific Strategy)

Developing robust maritime and Defense capability with Chinas help,

Middle Line Approach-Not to get sucked into us-china cold war,
maintaining a pragmatic foreign policy based wholly solely on national
interests.Slow Peddling of Relationship with USA- Assignment (Recent
Resolution passed by US regarding Trade with Pakistan?)
countering rising Indian maritime threat and actualization of BRI
Reigniting Ties with Russia
Beyond BRI? TECH, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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• Actualization of CPEC
Renergizing CPEC
Revitalizing CFTA
CPECA Empowerment through parliament
Enhancing Security
Addressing interprovincial Discords
Removing litigation Bottle necks
Capacity Building for Transit Trade Economy
• Terror Banner? Terror Financier ? Hub?
Compliance with FATF: Animating Diplomatic Clout
Mobilizing intelligentsia: International Media Strategy
Promoting Soft Image: Tourism
Harnessing Diaspora Abroad
Addressing 5th Gen. War -
• Iran Saudi Rivalry
Maintaining National Dignity (remittance versus
respect dilemma)
Neutrality Cum Balancing Approach- Exercising
Strategic Flexibility (IPRI Faizan Rai Solution)
Fostering Inter sectarian Harmony- Animating
OIC Tech wing

Having the best of both worlds

Vying for Rapprochement between Iran-KSA-
Mediation
Maintaining Aloofness to Abraham Accords-
Assignment (What Pakistan Gains or loses from
recognizing Israel?)

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• CAREC Questions
(TAPI, CASA 1000)
Linked with Afghanistan
Peace Process

Can be a stepping stone

for unhinging the
geoeconomics potential
of Pakistan
Energy Corridor Idea-
Fate Changer for
Pakistan?

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• EU and GSP Plus Status
Major Trade Partner

Recently dented relationship? TLP or

Diploamtic Arm Twisting viz a viz US-
CHINA competition

Keeping and expanding trade ties

Developing Close Relations with Post
Brexit UK Biggest Trade Partner in Europe
Garnering Support for Kashmiri Cause
Assignment- What is GSP PLUS status?
When Pakistan got it? What are its
benefits? what issues pakistan may face if
it is disbanded?

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• Nuclear Security and International Concerns -Indian Space Race
Antics (already Addresed)

• Other?
Fostering decent ties across muslim ummah
Developing and building on cordiality with an emerging
Eurasian Bloc
Expanding Trade Options and Expanding FDI Base through
Commercial Diplomacy
Making a resilient FP through institutions strengthening

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Thankyou