ARBAMINCH UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF WATER TECHNOLOGY

FUCULITY OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY

SEMINAR ON SELECTED TOPIC:

MODELING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO LAND USE LAND COVER

CHANGES, FLOOD HAZARDS AND ITS EFFECT ON BIOCLIMATIC
COMPONENT IN NERI WATERSHED, SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

BY:

NAME: YIRGAALEM SORSA

ID NO: PRAWTI/045/14

Submitted to: Anirudh Bhowmick (Ph.D.) 

Submission Date: Feb, 202

Arbaminch, Ethiopia
 Table of Contents
Contents Page

CHAPTER ONE........................................................................................................................1
1. Introduction............................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background of the study...................................................................................................1
1.2 Statement of the problem..................................................................................................3
1.3 Objectives of the study.....................................................................................................4
1.3.1 General Objective......................................................................................................4
1.4 Research Questions..........................................................................................................4
1.5 Scope of the study............................................................................................................5
CHAPTER TWO.......................................................................................................................6
2. LITRATURE REVIEW.........................................................................................................6
2.1 Water resource management............................................................................................6
2.1.1 Water resource Management in Ethiopia..................................................................6
2.2 Hydrological processes in a watershed.............................................................................6
2.3 Hydrologic modeling........................................................................................................7
2.4 Land use/land Cover Change in Ethiopia.........................................................................7
2.4.1 Modeling hydrological consequences of land use change.........................................8
4.5 Flood hazard Mapping......................................................................................................8
2.5.1 Flooding in Ethiopia..................................................................................................9
2.6 Estimation of Runoff Using SCS-CN Method.................................................................9
2.7 GIS and Remote Sensing for LULC change..................................................................10
2.8 GIS and APH..................................................................................................................10
2.9 Impacts of Land use/land cover change on Surface runoff and Bioclimatic factors......10
2.10 List of Original Papers..................................................................................................10
CHAPTER THREE..................................................................................................................12
3. METHOD AND MATERIALS...........................................................................................12
3.1. Description of the study area.........................................................................................12
3.1.1 Location...................................................................................................................12
3.1.2. Topography.............................................................................................................12
3.1.3 Climate.....................................................................................................................13

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 3.1.4 Water Resources......................................................................................................14
3.1.4 Soil...........................................................................................................................15
3.2 Research Methodology...................................................................................................16
3.2.1 Land use land cover analysis...................................................................................16
3.2.2 SWAT model inputs..................................................................................................17
3.2.3 SWAT model setup...................................................................................................17
3.2.4 SWAT model calibration and validation..................................................................17
3.3 Flood frequency analysis from hydrologic data.............................................................17
3.3.1 Gumbel distribution.................................................................................................18
3.3.2 Log–Pearson type III...............................................................................................18
3.3.3 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)......................................................................18
3.3.4 Flood inundation area mapping..............................................................................19
3.4 Bioclimatic component analysis.....................................................................................19
4. Procedure..............................................................................................................................19
5. Critical Reflection................................................................................................................21
6. Implication...........................................................................................................................23
7. Conclusion............................................................................................................................24
References................................................................................................................................25

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List of Tables

List of Figures
Figure 3.1: Location map of the study area

Figure 3.2: Topographic Structure of the Watershed………………………………………..13

Figure 3.3: Temperature and Rainfall Data of the study area………………….…………….14

Figure 3.4: Soil map of the study area……………………………………………………….16

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 CHAPTER ONE

1. Introduction

1.1 Background of the study

Drastic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in river catchments have taken
place on a global scale due to the continuous expansion of human development,
intensification of agriculture, the growth of urban areas and industries, and the extraction of
timber and other natural resources are believed to accelerate the change in the global
environment (Bekele et al., 2021).

Water managers and planners are facing substantial uncertainties in the future demand and
availability of water. Land-use/land-cover (LULC), flood hazards and their probable
hydrological effects are increasingly contributing to this uncertainty. LULC changes and
flood hazards are expected to alter the timing and magnitude of hydrological processes.
LULC and Flooding’s are important factors causing combined impacts on catchment
hydrologic processes (Kuma, 2021).
LULC change is known to influence both surface water hydrology and soil hydraulic
properties, as deforestation is likely to affect the local water balance, and the bulk density of
soil increases with a change from forest to grassland or cropland and It is known to affect
both the balance between rainfall and evaporation and the runoff response by altering the
physical structure of vegetation and surface roughness (Mahmoud & Alazba, 2015).
The intensive cultivation on a steep slope and marginal area without soil and water
conservation practices resulted in extreme soil flood; the agro-ecological belts in Ethiopia
have been affected by climate change since about the 1970s, a trend that is evident not only in
terms of rainfall variability but also the rise of temperature (Republic, 2005).
Land use and land cover change are one of the main contributors to global warming, through
deforestation that contribute to greenhouse gases. The rise in temperature in Africa is
projected to range between 4 and 6 0C in the subtropics and between 3 to 5 oC in the tropics by
the end of the century. This is expected to exacerbate the number of extreme weather events,
such as drought, floods and heat wave, which are already occurring more frequently,
intensely, and are lasting longer than before (Kourouma et al., 2022)

1
Therefore, extreme hydrological variability and seasonality are the main challenges in the
water resource management sectors that affect agriculture, hydropower generation, and water
infrastructure directly. Study by (Council, 2002.) showed that the Ethiopian economy costed
more than one-third of its growth potential due to the extreme hydrological variability which
occurred in 2005. That is because of the national economy’s heavy reliance on natural
resources and rain-fed farming. Different Studies have shown that changes in LULC could
further increase the hydrological variability by altering the hydrologic cycle and exacerbate
the effect on flood hazards, Natural Environment and bioclimatic factors like Evaporation,
rainfall, temperature (Ashenafi, 2014). This suggests that the combined effect of flood
hazards and LULC change on hydrological responses requires site-specific investigation.
Understanding the impact of LULC change on the hydrological process in Ethiopia is far
from complete; the aim of different research interms of this subject is to explore the
combined and individual impacts of LULC and climate changes on the hydrologic responses
in catchment or watershed level in Ethiopia. LULC change scenarios, flood hazards were
used for hydrologic simulations using the SWAT model (Kuma, 2021).
Therefore, geospatial techniques are widely used in flood susceptibility Modeling; a number
of studies have been conducted on flood prediction and FSM using MCDM (multiple-criteria
decision making) techniques; statistical models and machine learning algorithms (MLAs)
integrated with geospatial tools including; AHP (analytical hierarchy process; SWARA
(stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (Rahman et al., 2021).
However, previous studies have not comprehensively examined LULC and flood hazard
impact on natural and bioclimatic factors and the influence of anthropogenic factors on
flooding in Ethiopia, particularly in south omo zone. Moreover, floods are a regular
phenomenon in the study area, south omo zone, especially during the monsoon season (May
to September;(Mapping et al., 2020)). The lack of facilities and regular floods inflict
enormous damage to the study area (Al et al., 2019). According to the literature, no
comprehensive studies can be found in this region. Precisely, there is no study that relates
hydrologic response on LULC and Floood hazard and its impact on bioclimatic factors, i.e.
evapotranspiration, Rainfall, and Temperature (Dile et al., 2013).
This paper aimed to determine the hydrologic responses to changes of land cover, occurrence
of flood hazards and its impact on bioclimatic factors of Neri watershed using appropriate
hydrologic simulation models and geospatial techiniques i.e. SWAT, APH, GIS & RS, GPD,
HEC-RAS, CA-MARCOV, IDRIS , ETCCDMI and LCDI (Castle, 2000). The aim of this
paper is, therefore, to provide insight on the Current trend of water resource management,

2
bioclimatic factors in south Omo zone in the context of LULC change, and flood hazards on
the hydrological processes of the Neri watershed, a major tributary to the Omo River basin.

1.2 Statement of the problem

The change in LULC is caused by different factors such as the rapid expansion of
urbanization, expansion of diversified agricultural activities, wood extraction infrastructure
extension are clusters of direct causes of LULC changes (Gessesse and Bewket, 2014). Neri
is one of the largest watershed in south omo zone, it is tributary source of mago river, which
itself discharge in to the lower Omo river basin. Neri watershed dominated by jinka_town
and its surroundings, Jinka town is one of rapidly urbanizing administrative center of south
Omo zone. The Urbanization of this town brings positive and negative impacts on its
peripheries. However, urbanization can also drive many environmental problems, such as loss
of agricultural production, exacerbate the occurrence of flood hazard and degrade ecological
balance, when land use land cover is rapidly changed as an increment rate of population in
the town and its surroundings, whereas metropolitan areas is expanding in adjacent rural
landscapes and others (Deng, etal., 2006) and (Rahman et al., 2021).

Most of the previous studies in Ethiopia focused on the impact of either climate change
(Setegn et al., 2008; Dile et al., 2013; or LULC change on the hydrological response. There
was a clear general lack of modeling on the integrated influence of LULC and flood hazard on
watershed hydrology and analysing its impact on bioclimatic factors. Moreover, the previous
studies used a hydrological model to evaluate the influence of LULC change or flood
vulnerability on hydrological response; however, the model was calibrated and validated using
static land-use data. This may result in model responses being stationary because the hydrological
model prediction performance depends on the temporal resolution of land-use input data (Pai &
Saraswat, 2015)
Besides, most of the Land use land cover change and modeling hydrologic response Static
Land Use (SLU) and Dynamic Land Use (DLU), were studied to investigate the effect of
accounting dynamic land-use on hydrological responses using SWAT model. However,
climate variables have a strong association with local soil conditions, topography, and LULC
dynamics (Birhane et al., 2018), which is not properly incorporated in a statistical
relationship. Therefore, modeling hydrology, changes of land use land cover uses GIS & RS,
HEC-HMS, CA-MARCOV and ETCCDI in addition to SWAT is important to further
refinement and incorporate local conditions at a high spatial resolution to reduce uncertainties
and low spatial data for model set up. On the other hand, much of the flood disasters in

3
Ethiopia are attributed to rivers that overflow or burst their banks and inundate downstream
plain lands. The flood that has recently assaulted Southern Omo Zone (mainly Jink town and
its sorroundings) it was a typical manifestation of river floods (Brief, 2006).
The current and future impact of LULC change on the seasonal water budget remains
uncertain and requires a high level of spatial and temporal investigation through a better
understanding of the interaction of the atmospheric and hydrologic systems. Moreover, the
likely flood hazards, environmental and bioclimatic factors implications of along with the
changing LULC not yet conducted in the study area and have not been fully evaluated.
Therefore, this study is designed to investigate the combined hydrologic response on LULC
change, occurrence of flood hazard and its impact on bioclimatic factors to support the
integrated water resources management practices in Neri Watershed.

1.3 Objectives of the study

1.3.1 General Objective

The general objective of this research is to investigate and model the hydrological response
on changes of land use land cover, occurrence of flood hazard and its impact on bioclimatic
factors in Neri watershed using hydrological, Land use change, flood hazard model and
bioclimatic factor Indices.

To quantify the spatio-temporal variation of the LULC change in the Neri watershed
To evaluate the effect of updated land-use information on the SWAT model performance
change and surface runoff
To investigate spatial distribution of flood hazard and hotspot in the Study area.
To investigate the impact of LULC on hydrological responses for the period 1990 – 2020
To examine impacts of land use land covers change and flood hazard on bioclimatic
factors in Neri watershed.

1.4 Research Questions

The researcher was goes to answer the following questions:

Which land use land cover class is highly changed since 1990?
How to evaluate the impact of LULC change on surface runoff and flooding in the
study area?
What factors contribute for spatial distribution of flood hazard in the study area?
What is the impact of LULC and flood hazards on hydrological responses for the
period 1990 – 2020?

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 What are the relative impacts of land use land cover change and flood hazard on
bioclimatic factors in Neri watershed?

1.5 Scope of the study

The scope of this study is delimited both in geographical area and issue of concern.
Geographically, it is delimited to Neri watershed in south Omo zone. Regarding the area of
concern, the main focus of the research was modeling hydrological response on changes of
land use land cover change, occurrence of flood hazard and its impact on bioclimatic factors
for the watershed in the zone. This study was also using GIS and Remote sensing integrate
with Hydrological, flood and land use change models and bioclimatic indices.

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 CHAPTER TWO

2. LITRATURE REVIEW

2.1 Water resource management

Water resource management is the activity of planning, developing, and managing the
optimum use of water (Council, 2002) In an ideal world, water resource management is
regarded to all the competing demands for water and seeks to allocate water on an equitable
basis to satisfy all uses and demands. This is rarely possible in practice. Water resource
management controls water resources systems that are combinations of constructed water
control facilities and natural or environmental elements that work together to achieve water
management (Integrated Water Resources Management Planning Approach for Small Island
Developing States, n.d.).

2.1.1 Water resource Management in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is a country with a broad range of geomorphic provinces; a high and rugged
mountainous core cut by deep gorges and incised river valleys, fault bound plateaus and
basins, a prominent rift valley that hosts a number of lakes (Credit & Ababa, 2011). The total
surface water is estimated about 123 billion meter cube and ground water resource about 2.6
billion meter cube (Workneh et al., 2012). According to (Food et al., 2015) survey base year
2002, Ethiopia withdraws 5.5 billion m³/year, which is about 5% of the total surface flow,
while the difference is lost as runoff to the neighbouring countries. From the 5% withdrawal,
6% are used by the domestic sector, 0.34% by the industry and 93.6% are allocated for
agriculture, especially to irrigate (Awulachew & Merrey, 2005).

2.2 Hydrological processes in a watershed

Investigations to understand the hydrological process are all about seeking answers to basic
questions such as (Mcdonnell, 2020)
i. Where does water go when it rains?
ii. What flow path does it take to the stream?
iii. How long does it reside in the catchment?
These questions were articulated by John Hewlett within the context of his variable source
area concept almost forty years ago; attempts have been made to answer these and related
questions by theoretical analysis and actual field measurement data. Still these questions are
fundamental for hydrological process studies. Knowledge of the rainfall- runoff mechanisms

6
and its factors that have directly or indirect effects is crucial to understand the hydrological
processes.
The underlying fundamentals of the hydrological processes have been investigated for many
decades. However, research is still ongoing and increasingly focuses on hydrological models
used to simulate environmental changes in watershed responses, investigating impact of
internal and external factors on landscape and hydrological processes. In recent years, an
increasing number of studies have referred to the concept of land cover and climate change
impacts to explain watershed hydrological responses. This process requires improved water
resources management tools i.e. watershed modeling techniques based on sound scientific
principles.

2.3 Hydrologic modeling

The detailed processes that link the rainfall over the catchment with the stream flow may be
studied by applying physical laws. However, the complexity of the boundary conditions (i.e.
the physical description of the catchment and the initial conditions and distribution of the
variables) makes a solution based on the direct application of the laws of physics
impracticable. Moreover, direct application of these laws requires subdividing the catchment
into homogenous and isotropic regions. The subdivision depends on catchment characteristics
(soil type, land use, slope, and vegetation cover, etc.) which may also vary in space and time.
For these reasons, instead of exact representation of the processes effort is directed to the
construction of a hydrological model (Ashenafi, 2014) . Hydrological modeling involves the
application of mathematical expressions that define quantitative relationships between inputs
(e.g. flow-forming factors) and outputs (e.g. flow characteristics). It is related to the spatial
processes of the hydrologic cycle and is often used to estimate basin water resources as well
as for impact assessment.

2.4 Land use/land Cover Change in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, the availability of natural resources as well as their dynamics and management
vary considerably from area to area. For instance, different parts of the Ethiopian highlands
receive between 600 and 2700mm of rainfall annually. Besides high rainfall variability and
water shortage is prevalent in the highlands (Wagesho, 2016)

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is one of the challenges which strongly influence the
process of Agricultural development and the food security situation in Ethiopia. With an area
of 1,130,000 km2 and as one of the most populous countries in Africa, Ethiopia is

7
experiencing huge land use/land cover dynamics from natural vegetation to farming
practices and human settlement. This problem is more severe in the highlands which
account nearly 44% of the country’s landmass and which has been cultivated for
millennia (Tolessa et al., 2016). Research conducted in Ethiopia has shown that there were
considerable LULC changes in (Rahman et al., 2021)the country during the second half of the
20th century. Most of these studies indicated that deforestation and encroachment of
cultivation into marginal areas were the major causes of land degradation, particularly in the
highland part of the country. Studies have been conducted to estimate and monitor land
use/land cover change indifferent parts of Ethiopian highlands.

2.4.1 Modeling hydrological consequences of land use change

Land use land cover changes are additionally to climate change one of the main human
induced activities altering the quantity and quality of a hydrological system (Moriasi et al.,
2015) Many studies analyzed land-use change impact at catchment scale or on the
hydrological response of changes in vegetation cover (Submitted et al., 2019). In traditional
applications of spatially distributed hydrological models, the land-use input is pre-composed
and taken as fixed. It does not change during the simulation period. This means that the
vegetation cover (vegetation types, or vegetation development states; represented in the
model by, for instance, the leaf area index (LAI) and/or the root depth) does not vary
according to the water availability. The common method is to change the land-use maps (land
use change scenario) over time to predict the impact on water availability under the
assumption that the water demand for vegetation development is satisfied under any
condition. Quantified the sensitivity the HEC-HMS distributed hydrological model together
with Cellular Automata (CA) land-use forecasting model, (Girma et al., 2021) observed that
changing land-uses could alter the hydrology and sedimentation in a watershed; however, this
information is unknown to a model that is operating based on a single land-use geospatial
dataset. But, a few modellers have been tried to incorporate more the one land use land cover
layer. To name a few, (Pai & Saraswat, 2015) highlighted the opportunities for the integration
of land use change module (LUC) and SWAT hydrological model. Koch et al. (2012)
integrated the Land use Update and Soil Assessment (LUPSA) to the SWAT hydrological
model to improve the overall SWAT abilities to handle land-use change.

4.5 Flood hazard Mapping

Hazard is defined as a threatening event, or the possibility of occurrence of a potentially
damaging phenomenon within a given period and area (Alaghmand et al., 2010). In other

8
literature, the hazard is a potentially harmful physical event, phenomenon, and/or human activity
that may cause loss of life or injury, damage to property, social and economic disturbance, or
degradation of the environment.
There are different types of hazards such as geological, meteorological, oceanographic,
hydrological, biological, and money more, among all the above-listed hazard types the present
study focused on the hydrological hazard, which is flood hazard. Floods are among the most
common and destructive types of disasters, causing massive harm and affecting livelihoods
around the world. There is a wide variety of flood risk management approaches that can minimize
this damage, and flood risk management requires an assessment of the flood hazards and
causative factors (Notes, n.d.). Most causes of flooding are closely related to topographical,
meteorological, climatic, biological, and hydrological factors.

2.5.1 Flooding in Ethiopia

Flooding in Ethiopia is one of the major causes of natural hazards that cause significant
damage to lives and livelihoods in the part of the country. Flooding in the country is mainly
associated with heavy rainfall and the topography of the highland mountains and lowland
plains with natural drainage systems formed by the principal river basins, in most cases,
flooding occurs in the country as a result of prolonged heavy rainfall causing rivers to
overflow and inundate areas along the river banks in lowland plains. As the report of the
national meteorological agency (NMA), (2018), several flash flood incidents have already been
reported in Somali, Afar, Oromia, and SNNP regions since 15 April 2018, which causes
displacing thousands of peoples and causing loss of property and livelihoods (Kamal et al., 2017).

2.6 Estimation of Runoff Using SCS-CN Method

Runoff is one of the most important hydrologic variables used in most water resource
applications. Rainfall is the primary source of water for runoff generation over the land
surface. The runoff curve number is an empirical parameter, which is extensively used in
hydrology to estimate the direct runoff or infiltration rate from the rainfall excess, which is
also called the curve number or simply CN. The USDA Natural Resources Conservation
Service, formerly known as the Soil Conservation Service or SCS, developed the curve
number system. The number of works of literature is now widely referred to as the "SCS
runoff curve number." From an empirical study of runoff from small catchment (Soulis,
2021). Originally, the NRSCS method was developed in 1954 and documented in national
engineering handbook (NEH-4) by the soil conservation service now called the SCS -CN.

9
2.7 GIS and Remote Sensing for LULC change
The GIS technology is employed to assist decision-makers by indicating various alternatives
in development and conservation planning and by modeling the potential outcomes of a series
of scenarios. It should be noted that any task begins and ends with the real world. Data are
collected about the real world. After the data are analyzed, information is compiled for
decision-makers. Based on this information, actions are taken and plans implemented in the
real world (Civco et al., 2002) in their comparison of land use land cover change detection
methods, made use of 5 methods with traditional post – classification cross tabulation, cross
correlation analysis, neural networks, knowledge – based expert systems, and image
segmentation and object – oriented classification. With the invention of Remote Sensing and
GIS techniques land use/cover mapping is a useful and detailed way to improve the selection
of areas designed to agricultural, urban and/or industrial areas of a region.

2.8 GIS and APH

Multi criteria decision-making is a very important problem-solving technique in any field of
study. According to (Nataraj, 2005) decision-makers could study and understand the problems
through multi-criteria analysis methods such as AHP which solves complex problems by
structuring the factors into a hierarchical framework. In today’s world the integration of GIS with
multi criteria decision-making techniques playing a very critical role in every aspect of risk
assessment and hazard mitigation tasks.

2.9 Impacts of Land use/land cover change on Surface runoff and Bioclimatic factors
The land use/land cover change affects the surface runoff as the runoff increased with
increased rainfall between the year 1970 and 1980 about 88% of the runoff increases due to
the rainfall increase and the runoff decreased and increased by the land use/land cover change
(LULC), it contributed about 44% of the surface runoff changes in between the 1980 and
1990 and later the runoff changes to 71% from 1990 to 2000. The reduction of forestland and
agriculturally used land to the newly built environments such as residential sites, industrial
sites, and commercial centers can reduce the availability of retention areas to manage surface
runoff during and after rainfall events (Jin-xia et al., 2014).

2.10 List of Original Papers

This Seminar is prepared based on the following original papers, which are listed below

Paper 1: Jean Moussa Kourouma, Darius Phiri, Andrew T. Hudak & Stephen Syampungani.
(2022). Land use/cover spatiotemporal dynamics, and implications on environmental and

10
bioclimatic factors in Chingola district, Zambia, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and
Risk, 13:1, 1898-1942. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2022.2097132.

(Published Geomatics, Natural Hazard and Risk under Tylor & Francis).

Paper 2: Birhan Getachew a c, B.R. Manjunatha b, H. Gangadhara Bhat b. Modeling projected

impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake
Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.125974

(Published in Hydrology under Elsevier)

Paper 3: Heidari, E., Mahmoudzadeh, A. & Mansouri Daneshvar, M.R. Urban flood
susceptibility evaluation and prediction during 2010–2030 in the southern watersheds of
Mashhad city, Iran. Environ Syst Res 10, 41 (2021).

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-021-00245-1

(Published in Environmental System Research under Springer Nature).

Paper 4: Ashenafi, Abraha Adugna@inproceedings{Ashenafi2014ModelingHR, title=

{Modeling Hydrological Responses to Changes in Land Cover and Climate in Geba River
Basin, Northern Ethiopia}, author= {Abraha Adugna Ashenafi}, year= {2014}*Proceeding

Paper 5: Flooding and its relationship with land cover change, population growth, and road
density. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101224

(Published in Geoscience Frontiers under Elsevier)

Paper 6: Gashaw, W., Legesse, D. (2011). Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment Using GIS
and Remote Sensing in Fogera Woreda, Northwest Ethiopia. In: Melesse, A.M. (eds) Nile
River Basin. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_9

(Published in Blue Nile Basin under Springer Nature)

Paper 7: Hagos, Y.G., Andualem, T.G., Yibeltal, M. et al. Flood hazard assessment and
mapping using GIS integrated with multi-criteria decision analysis in upper Awash River
basin, Ethiopia. Appl Water Sci 12, 148 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-022-01674-8

(Published in Applied Water science under Springer)

11
 CHAPTER THREE

3. METHOD AND MATERIALS

3.1. Description of the study area

3.1.1 Location
Neri Watershed is located in lower Omo basin southern Nation, Nationalities and people’s
Regional State of Ethiopia, the watershed stretched between Selamago, Bako-Gazer districts
of South Omo Zone (Figure, 1). Geographically it is situated between latitude and longitude
value of 5°46'37.94"N to 36°34'33.50"E with an elevation of 547 meters above sea level,
covering a total area of about 312 km2.

Figure 3.1: Location map of the study area

3.1.2. Topography
The topography of Neri watershed is characterized by plain and plateau land. This indicates
that larger proportion of the watershed is characterized by more than 80 percent less than
1500m above sea level. The elevation of the watershed ranges from 556 meters to 3031

12
meters above sea level. The watershed is dominated by gentle land feature character with
three sides of geographical location except eastern part. Also it has been addressed below
(figure, 2).

Figure 3.2: Topographic Structure of the Watershed

3.1.3 Climate
Due to the complexity of climate in the region several classification systems has been applied
to the Ethiopian situation. Some of these are: - Traditional, Koppen’s, Throthwaite’s Rainfall
regime and Agro-climatic zone classification systems. Among these classification systems,
the traditional system was most commonly used, based on altitude and temperature. Thus, the
country was divided into five climatic zones such as: Bereha (dry hot climate with < 500m
altitude), Kola (hot and arid type with an altitude of 500-1500m), and Woina dega (dry warm
climate having 1500-2500m), Dega (cold with 2500-3500m altitude) and Wurch (very cold or

13
alpine with altitude >3500 (walker etal, 2003).Because of these climatic variables of the
study area are highly governed by plain and plateau topography of the area except
mountainous, with altitudes ranging from 404-2976 meters above sea level, most of the
watershed falls in the Bereha (dry hot climate with < 500m altitude), Kola (hot and arid type
with an altitude of 500-1500m), and Woina dega (dry warm climate having 1500-2500m) and
Dega (cold with 2500-3500m altitude) agro-ecological zone and rainfall was relatively
reliable. Based on this the mean monthly minimum and maximum recorded precipitation
depth of watershed was ranged between 46.91mm in January and 187.40mm in April and
mean monthly minimum and maximum temperature record of the watershed ranged between
26.1°C in November and December; and 28.1°C in February and march with the same period
respectively.
Mean Monthly Rainfall Distribution (mm)

Jinka _Station_2014

Mean Monthly Temprature Distribution

200 30
180
25
160
140
20
120
100 15
80
10
60
40
5
20
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Rainfall (mm) Mean Max (°C ) Mean Min (°C )

Figure 3.3: Temperature and Rainfall Data of the study area

3.1.4 Water Resources

There are both temporary and permanent water sources used by the local communities of
south Ari district groups. Major permanent water sources found in the area include: rivers,
springs, bore holes, hand and wind pumps. With regard to rivers the woreda has two
permanent rivers namely, Neri and Maki which is the tributary to Omo river basin, both
rivers cross the temperate and semi-arid parts of study area.

There is also one spring within this semi-arid part of the study area in which the
production depends on the climatic condition of the study area. The economy of those

14
households residing above 1300 m.a.s.l. they were agro-pastoral groups practicing a mixed
farming. The primary stock raised there is cattle and supplementary flocks of sheep, goats
and some packed animals like donkey and cultivation of crop simultaneously. Households
who are living in between 596-1300 m.a.s.l engaged in livestock herding due to unfavorable
climatic condition for crop production. Unlike agro-pastoralists. Rainfall is reliable to the
highland parts and lowlands for regular and seasonal cropping. Rainfall in the study area is
both uncertain and limited as compared to cultivating highland areas at all. It is such a pattern
that exposes agro pastoralists and pastoralist to famine and drought. However, they practiced
crop cultivation like maize and sorghum for household consumption purpose following the
rainy season of the year also practices irrigated crop cultivation by using water from these
nearby river embankments.

3.1.4 Soil
Based on Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO, 2000) soil classification system and
percentage share of soil types in the watershed, the Neri watershed in south Omo consists of
nine soil types. However, almost 65% the watershed is dominated by arid and semi-arid soil
types; these are both Solonchaks and Xerosols. Figure, 4: Illustrates those types of soils and
their distribution in the study area.

15
Figure 3.4: Soil map of the study area

3.2 Research Methodology

3.2.1 Land use land cover analysis

Remote sensing satellite data used for this study were obtained from the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) data center
(http://espa.cr.usgs.gov). Satellite data included in the study were Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7
ETM+, and Landsat 8 OLI images. The images of February and March were used because of
the minimum cloud cover and surface features changes during the dry months in the study
watershed. The image pre-processing and classification was made using ArcGIS 10.5 and
eCognition Developer 10.3.1 software packages and use Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture,
Woody Mass Project from 2003 provides a land cover map in the scale 1:50,000 for
verification of classification. The satellite data were projected to Universal Transverse
Mercator (UTM) projection system zone 37N and datum of World Geodetic System 1984.
The un-scanned gaps in ETM+ were filled using a standardized ordinary co-kriging method
(Zhang et al., 2007). Use Markov chain analysis (Marcov Model) calculates a transition

16
probability matrix of LULC changes from earlier to later dates, and then uses the transition as
a basis to estimate future changes and LDI (Land development intensity) this index quantifies
how intensively a land has been exploited below or above its capacity. It also reflects the
scale and frequency of the impact of human activities on LULC(Forward, n.d.). The
classified land-use types were used as LULC data in the SWAT model. LULC data (1990,
2000, 2010, and 2020) were used to represent different land-use regimes over the watershed
during four periods: 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020.

3.2.2 SWAT model inputs

The SWAT model requires a digital elevation model (DEM), land-use, soil (soil texture map
was derived from the soil samples collected during the field surveys after texture analysis provides the
soil textural physical properties needed for modeling, as well as for verifying FAO soil map data) ,
and climate data to simulate different hydrological processes. The DEM data with spatial
resolution of 12.5m was obtained from the ALOS DEM.

3.2.3 SWAT model setup

This study applied the ArcSWAT-2012 model to assess the effect of Static Land Use (SLU)
and Dynamic Land Use (DLU) data on the performance of SWAT model simulations. The
two model setups (SLU and DLU) used similar input data except for land-use. The SLU setup
used only the 1990 land-use data for the entire simulation period, whereas the DLU setup
used 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 land-use data to simulate the hydrologic process for the four
periods. These land-use data were applied using the land use update (LUU) tool of the SWAT
DLU model setup. The surface runoff was estimated using the soil conservation service curve
number (SCS CN) method (Fentaw et al., 2018; Bekele et al., 2019). Flow within the channels
was routed using variable storage method. The evapotranspiration was estimated using the
Penman-Monteith method (Gebre and Ludwig, 2015).

3.2.4 SWAT model calibration and validation

The SWAT model parameters were calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting
version 2 (SUFI-2) in the SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program;
(Abbaspour et al., 2009).

3.3 Flood frequency analysis from hydrologic data

In addition to SWAT model inputs flood hazards include hydrologic data covering discharge
and population data used for this study. Training flood locations (150 points) were selected

17
randomly to produce dependent data, which was made up of 0 and 1 values, with 1
representing the existence of flood and 0 its absence of flooding. Additionally, the same
numbers of points (150) as flood locations were selected as non-flooded areas with an
assigned value of 0. Training flood locations (150 points) were selected randomly to produce
dependent data, which was made up of 0 and 1 values, with 1 representing the existence of
flood and 0 its absence of flooding. Additionally, the same numbers of points (150) as flood
locations were selected as non-flooded areas with an assigned value of 0.

Gumbel distribution and Log Pearson Type III were used for the study. The choice of these
methods was based on two cogent reasons. The first is the lack of appropriate river runoff
data, which makes it inevitable to utilize the most ecologically and hydrologically fit
measure. The second is to provide a suitable hydrologic inundation procedure that will
generate the actual water level threshold for flood mapping purposes (Tadesse et al., 2022)

3.3.1 Gumbel distribution

First introduced in 1914 by Gambel, this is the most common and widely known probability
analysis, especially in meteorological and hydrological studies related to flood predictions.
Gumbel defined flood as the largest of the 365 daily flows. The annual series of flood flows
constitute a chain of the largest values of flows. In this study, an attempt was made to
compute water levels at 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 return periods. Gumbel’s equation is given as:
XT = 𝑋avg +K* STDV

3.3.2 Log–Pearson type III

Log-Pearson type III distribution, first proposed by Foster in 1924 and revised later in 1967
by U.S. Weather Resources Council is widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis,
particularly for flood peak data (Tadesse, 2021). The distribution is a three-parameter gamma
function with a logarithmic transform of the variable. The log-Pearson Type III distribution
differs from most other distribution methods in that the three parameters mean (Za), standard
deviation (STDV), and the coefficient of skew (K) are necessary to describe the distribution.
The designed Log Pearson Type III for this study is expressed as
Z = Za + Kz * STDV

3.3.3 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Weightage of each parameter is defined following the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
(Saaty, 1990a, b). With the use of AHP, the relevant factor's relative significance was

18
obtained after the construction of a pairwise comparison matrix (Mu and Pereyra-Rojas,
2017). The rating score of relative significance was set up from 1 to 9, indicating less
importance to much more importance of the factor in that order

3.3.4 Flood inundation area mapping

River geometry information is an essential and important requirement in developing flood
inundation areas using the HEC-GeoRAS/HEC-RAS hydraulic modeling software. HEC-
RAS can model the steady and unsteady hydraulic analysis, and in the present instance, the
former was modeled. Basic river geometries required in flood modeling include river cross-
sections, stream centerlines, bank lines, flow lines, and other information.

3.4 Bioclimatic component analysis

RClimDex and ETCCDI is core Climate Indices to analysis the temperature (Maxi, mean and
mini), precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration to analyse. Precipitation is an important
factor for soil and plant growth and useful for the determination of weather patterns regarding
early warning of drought and flood; Temperature is useful to classify the weather patterns in
combination with precipitation and soil moisture (Kourouma et al., 2022)

4. Procedure
Paper One;

In this section each orginal paper methodological order is analyzed; Paper one (Published in
Geomatics, Natural Hazard and Risk under Tylor & Francis journal). The researcher use
ENVI software for geospatial image analysis MSS for the earliest and OLI for the latest
period and the middle images ETM+ and eight samples are taken for land use land cover
classification per 350 to 900 pixels and classification is done in ENVI; used confusion matrix
to calculate over all accuracy, user accuracy and producer accuracy. The researcher uses LDI
(Land Development Intensity) this index quantifies how intensively a land has been exploited
below or above its capacity. It also reflects the scale and frequency of the impact of human
activities on LULC (Liu et al. 2013). In methodology part different land use indices where
used but in Section below result and discussion part not comparatively studied i.e. NDVI and
NDWI

Paper two; in this paper research design or methodological order is analyzed; Paper two
(Published in journal of hydrology). Due to data sets, soil data is needed in order to determine
the hydrological parameters of the sub-watershed (here after SW) and the Hydrological

19
Response Unit (HRU) and it’s obtained from ministry of agriculture. In addition, this
research uses the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The 30-meter Shuttle Radar Topographic
Mission (SRTM) data obtained from the USGS website (https:/www.usgs.gov/) was used.
Basically the researcher used SWAT model integrates with IPEAT (Integrated Parameter
Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool) package tor hydrological response assessment and
CanESM2 GSM to produce high resolution future climate data.
Paper three; this paper is focused in flood hazard and its vulnerability, the paper titled;
urban flood susceptibility evaluation and prediction during 2010–2030 in the southern
watersheds of Mashhad city, Iran and Published in Environmental systems research under
Springer. No, more validation and verification of the satellite datas from the ground truth,
(e.g., from DEM, soil grids, LULC, HBASE, and Giovanni) However, urban flood
susceptibility evaluation (FSE) and management is a proper way to mitigate the urban human
losses and economic damages (Tingsanchali, 2012), which utilizes the empirical and rational
procedures to focus on the urban flood evaluation using physical coefficients and land-use
change ratios. Data sets, Sample design, result and discussion part is reviewed.
Paper four; this paper is focused in Modeling Hydrological Responses to Changes in LULC;
The paper entitled; Modeling Hydrological Responses to Changes in Land Cover and Climate
in Geba River Basin, Northern Ethiopia. In proceeding. The semi-distributed Soil Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrologic simulation model coupled with ArcGIS9.3
(ArcSWAT2009.97 release version 488) and is applied in the study. Using this tool
hydrological response is critically evaluated, calibrated and validated. It provides a watershed
scale model that enables to conduct impact studies. The flow of back ground of the study;
justification of problem; objective of the study and methodological part will be reviewed for
analysis its strength and weakness of the paper. Overall the paper seems like seminar or term
paper because it misses the design and sample of the research.

Paper five; this paper subject is dealing with flooding and its relationship with land cover
change, population growth, and road density; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101224, (the
paper is Published in Geoscience Frontiers under Elsevier). In this study, the CART
algorithm was used in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) (https://code.earthengine.google.com/)
to develop multi-temporal land cover maps of the study area between 2000 and 2017. CART
is a non-parametric algorithm, capable of detecting input-parameter relationships and
splitting them into nodes based on spectral similarity.

20
The single land cover dynamic index (SLCDI) and bilateral land cover dynamic index
(BLCDI) are often used to quantify changes in the intensity of land cover conversion. These
indices can be used to identify internal variations and transitions of LC by calculating the loss
and gain of each LC category over a time period. In addition, the variation of LC intensity
was also determined for each study period using the integrated bilateral land cover dynamic
index (IBLCDI). SLCDI, BLCDI and IBLCDI. The researcher does not mention how flood,
population growth and road density interrelated. This study mapped flood susceptibility in the
northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation (BRBP)
neural network, classification and regression trees (CART), a statistical model (STM) using
the evidence belief function (EBF), and their ensemble models (EMs)

5. Critical Reflection
Paper one;

In this section each orginal paper conflict of interest will be stated; paper one researcher
doesn’t mention how to customize different spatial resolution images and he does not clearly
indicate the method of filling the gap of scan line error images of ETM+; sample for LULC
classification is almost representative; and classification is done in ENVI. But here I will
recommend the better classification software the new version of ECognition developer
because of class hierarchy and manual classification (Patel et al, 2017; Hoque et al. 2020).
Before calculating confusion matrix for accuracy assessment Post classification refinement
will be used to improve the accuracy of the classification, as it is a simple and effective
method for correcting misclassification (Lud, 2007). The researcher uses LDI (Land
Development Intensity) this index quantifies how intensively a land has been exploited below
or above its capacity. It was better when uses Markov chain analysis (Marcov Model)
because it incorporates a transition probability matrix of LULC changes from earlier to later
dates, and then uses the transition as a basis to estimate future changes. Furthermore I want
to recommend the researcher missing a lot in land use change model comparison under result
and discussion part but the findings of the study is well discussed with other researchers.
Finally, I want to appreciate the well cited new reference in the paper.
Paper two; According to datasets, soil map data from ministry of agriculture and the
Ethiopian soil classification map at a scale of 1:1,000,000 provide small scale information on
the spatial distribution of soil types. In addition I will recommend the researcher in validation
and verification of digital soil maps; soil samples is mandatory collected during the field

21
surveys provides the soil textural physical properties needed for modeling, as well as for
verifying MoA soil map data. As an input for the model the researcher uses Digital Elevation
Model (DEM) 30-meter Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data obtained from the
USGS website (https:/www.usgs.gov/) was used but the better resolution is beyond to ALOS
DEM source with spatial resolution of 12.5m
The researcher well organized the remaining methodological parts to produce separate and
combined impacts on water balance components of both climate and LULC change. For
calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
was used in conjunction with the IPEAT (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty
Analysis Tool) package. To produce high resolution future climate data from CanESM2
GCM that could be used for impact assessment. Result, Discussion and Reference part is
scientifically and logically organized.
Paper three; Sample and research design is not properly or clearly not stated in the paper.
Hence, Field observation or sample collection is recommended in this paper properly to
configure satellite data from the ground truth i.e. validation and verification rather than
directly calculating satellite observations inputs or Furthermore, we can use an empirical
equation to estimate the engineering dimensions of watershed outlets, floodway’s, and cross-
sectional designs. On this basis and owing to the main factors of time of concentration (Tc),
peak flood discharges (Qp), and the length of watersheds (L), the outlet cross-section (Sc) of
each watershed is estimated to facilitate the hydraulic design and control using below
equation: the remaining methodological flow chart, result and discussion part is well written
according to recent citation of the paper and novel publication.
Paper four; this paper is focused in Modeling Hydrological Responses to Changes in LULC;
The paper entitled; Modeling Hydrological Responses to Changes in Land Cover and Climate
in Geba River Basin, Northern Ethiopia. Unstructured flow of ideas or not sequentially
written i.e. Back grounds of the study Ethiopia-world-study area level; the research paper left
a lot of ideas basically the gap of research/ problem justification is not stated. The researcher
used the semi-distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrologic simulation
model coupled with ArcGIS 9.3 (ArcSWAT2009.97 release version 488) method in the
study. However, to simulate hydrologic response integrating the hydrological simulation
program-FORTRAN (HSPF) is better, the HSPF has a flexible approach which cope with any
type of surface water body whether it is a rive, channel or a completely mixed lake or
reservoir (Castle, 2000). In my point of view the organization of paper is completely poor.

22
Paper five; this paper subject is dealing with flooding and its relationship with land cover
change, population growth, and road density; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101224, (the
paper is Published in Geoscience Frontiers under Elsevier). In this study, the CART
algorithm was used in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) (https://code.earthengine.google.com/)
to develop multi-temporal land cover maps of the study area between 2000 and 2017. CART
is a non-parametric algorithm, capable of detecting input-parameter relationships and
splitting them into nodes based on spectral similarity, but integrating LULC classification
system in ground truth for verification and validation of GEE better (Kaul & Sopan, 2014)

In addition, the variation of LC intensity was also determined for each study period using the
integrated bilateral land cover dynamic index (IBLCDI). SLCDI, BLCDI and IBLCDI, the
better is simultaneously or combine with using the single cellular automata Marcov model for
past, present and future LULC scenarios (Girma et al., 2021). However for further refinement
of the findings of the research using Fully Modified Ordinary Least square model
(FMOLSM) is important when he combine with his multiple LULC indices (Din & Vega,
2022). There is a clear and concise method to detect urban flood hazards rather than referring
the disadvantages of multiples methods over the most popular flood mapping models
(Negese et al., 2022).

6. Implication
I understood that each orginal paper has its own contribution to Ethiopian context; i.e. Paper
one land use/cover spatiotemporal dynamics, and implications on environmental and
bioclimatic factors in Chingola district, Zambia; provide insight on the current trend of
environmental and bioclimatic factors in the study area in the context of climate change, and
population growth. It has, therefore, the potential to have an important scientific contribution
through the exposition of patterns, characteristics of change in land use and land cover, and
the implications of the changes in bioclimatic and environmental factors. Paper two;
Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological
responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, which emphasizes
Ethiopian studies In order to advise local-scale adaptation and mitigation strategies, the
inclusion of predicted climate and LULC change for hydrological impact studies, is therefore,
very useful. Paper three; urban flood susceptibility evaluation and prediction during 2010–
2030 in the southern watersheds of Mashhad city, Iran; This research focus on construction of
the model depends which depends on the utilization of some global remotely sensed (RS) and

23
re analyzed datasets through geographical information system (GIS) aids to evaluate spatial
and temporal levels of runoff variations, peak flood discharges, and flood hazard
susceptibilities toward the urban sprawl and land-cover changes. Paper four; Modeling
Hydrological Responses to Changes in Land Cover and Climate in Geba River Basin,
Northern Ethiopia, Hence, this study addresses the impact of climatic and land cover change
enhances the water users and mangers to allocate and use the available water resources in
supporting the dominant agriculture based economic and social developments. It is also used
to implement techniques that control water yields, including rainfall, temperature and stream
flows and, finally, to optimize the resources. Paper five; Flooding and its relationship with
land cover change, population growth, and road density, it scientifically contribute the
community understands the immense destruction of properties, infrastructure and loss of
lives; floods are one of the most destructive natural hazards. Finally, all selected seminar
accredited paper contributes different mechanisms, models, designs for scientific
communities to carry out their research and manage natural resource throughout the world in
general and particularly in Ethiopia.

7. Conclusion
In conclusion, the main subject of this paper is modeling hydrological response on Land use
land cover change, occurrence of flood hazard and its impact on bioclimatic factors;
Inappropriate landscape conversion and subsequent hydrological circumstance is one of the
key problems threatening environmental welfare and sustainable development. However,
with clear description on more diverse sample is necessary to provide more empirical
findings on research issue raised.

24
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