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Workshop I
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Workshop I
Node X
100 MWh
Load Load
200 MWh 100 MWh
MC = 3.0 c MC = 3.0 c
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Workshop I
Figure 2
Losses (No Congestion)
Node X
110 MWh (input)
Losses = 10%
200 MWh 100 MWh
Load Load
200 MWh 100 MWh
MC = 3.0 c MC = 3.3 c
Load Load
200 MWh 100 MWh
MC = 3.0 c MC = 4.0 c
Load Load
200 MWh 100 MWh
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
Forecasting Financial MC
of Transmission: OATT
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Workshop I
(5) Marginal transmission cost per kWh (3)/(4) $0.01583 $0.00034 $0.01111 $0.00146
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Workshop I
Alternatives to Estimate
Marginal Resource Transmission Cost
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
Only expenditures in the first two categories are demand-related marginal costs related to all
customers.1 Transmission facilities for tying new generation into the main grid is driven by the
energy cost savings the site can provide. Thus these expenditures are energy-related and are
reflected in the marginal energy cost. Likewise transmission facilities designed to enhance
economy energy transactions are also energy-related and their costs are encompassed in the
marginal energy cost.
The total investment in growth-related projects, in constant dollars, was divided by
expected control area load growth over the same period. This marginal transmission investment is
presented in Schedule 3.
1
The projects in category four should be recovered from the specific customers involved without distorting the
marginal costs applicable to other customers.
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Workshop I
Schedule 3
Hypothetical Power Company
Derivation of Marginal Transmission Investment
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Workshop I
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Source: HPC table entitled "1995-1999 Transmision Capital Budget Projects - Includes
Associated Expenditures in 1994 & 2000."
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Workshop I
Excerpt from: Public Service Company of New Mexico, Test Year Ending March
31, 1984, "Compliance Filing Pursuant to the December 12, 1984
Order in NMPSC Case 1804," NMPSC Docket No. 1916.
Line
No.
1
1 Investment in Load-Related Transmission Facilities $41,929,243
(1985 Dollars) (1984-1993)
2
2 Additions to Transmission Level Firm Peak Load (kW) 281,000
2
5 Additions to Subtransmission Level Peak Load (kW) 105,000
1
Source: Public Service Company of New Mexico Improvement Authorization
Budget.
2
Source: Public Service Company of New Mexico Load Growth Document
(10/83).
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
Regression Approach To
Marginal Transmission Costs
cumulative . cumulative
investment = a + b load growth
slope = MC of transmission
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Workshop I
Time-Series Data
1970-2010
. slope = MC
. .
Total . .
. .
Transmission . .
Investment . .
.
(constant $) . .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
load
forecast
Peak Transmission Load
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Workshop I
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Workshop I
Table 1
Simplified Ilustration of PG&E's PW Method Using
San Francisco Near-Term Substation Reinforcement Project
(Actual Method Uses a Three-Year Moving Average Of This Computation)
Annual Scaled PV of
2
Division Investment Revenue Requirement Difference in
Annual System Load Shifted Shifted Present Value
1
Investment Peak Growth One Year One Year Streams
---(MW)--- -----($000)----- (1991 $000)
(A) x 2.356 (D) x 2.356 (E) - (F)
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
(1) 1990 1,097
(2) 1991 $640 1,110 13 1,508 0
(3) 1992 4,800 1,123 13 $669 11,309 1,576
(4) 1993 840 1,136 13 5,016 1,979 11,818
(5) 1994 0 1,149 13 878 0 2,068
(6) 1995 0 1,162 13 0 0 0
(7) 1996 0 1,175 13 0 0 0
(8) 1997 0 1,188 13 0 0 0
(9) 1998 0 1,201 13 0 0 0
(10) 1999 0 1,214 13 0 0 0
(11) 2000 0
(12) Average 13
(13) Present Value @ 11% 3 (1991 000$): $13,302 $12,523 $779
(14) PV Difference per kW of Load Growth (1991$) (13)/(12) $59.92
(15) Real Levelized Annual Cost 4 (1991$/kW) $9.29
(16) Real Levelized Annual Cost (1993$/kW) (15) x (1+ I)^2 $10.15
Assumptions:
Inflation Rate (i) 4.50%
Discount Rate (r) 11.00%
Annualized Period 9 years
Notes:
1 Values from columns (1) and (2) shifted one year forward with inflation added.
2 Scaling converts investment to present valued revenue requirement including return, depreciation,
Source: Based on PG&E 1993 Test Year General Rate Case Workpapers, Application,
Exhibit (PG&E.16), Chapter 4, pages 1-4 to 1-6.
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Transmission Time-Differentiation
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Alternatives For
Time-Differentiating
Marginal Transmission Costs
▫ Weight by load.
▫ Caution excess capacity at some
substations might bias results.
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Workshop I
frequency Normalized
peak load**
Adjust summer loads upward to account for reduced carrying capability in hot periods.
Watch out for shifts to and from daylight savings time – a zero load value distorts the
distribution of hourly loads.
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Workshop I
Schedule 5
Hypothetical Power Company
Transmission Assignment Factors Estimated Relative
Probability of Peak by Costing Period
Percent of Annual
Probability of Peak
(1)
Summer
(1) Peak 86.7%
(2) Off-Peak 13.3%
(3) Subtotal 100.0%
Shoulder
(1) Peak 0.0%
(2) Off-Peak 0.0%
(3) Subtotal 0.0%
Winter
(4) Peak 0.0%
(5) Off-Peak 0.0%
(6) Subtotal 0.0%
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Transmission Maintenance
(10) 568 M aintenance Supervision
and Engineering 1,185 1,301 1,272 1,368 1,039
(11) 569 M aintenance of Structures 210 171 304 108 166
(12) 570 M aintenance of Station
Equipment 2,240 2,126 1,955 2,131 2,234
(13) 571 M aintenance of Overhead
Line 1,675 1,838 1,583 1,471 1,333
(14) 572 M aintenance of Underground
Line 0 0 0 0 0
(15) 573 M aintenance of M isc. Trans.
Plant 221 5,605 185 227 273
(16) Total M aintenance 5,531 11,041 5,299 5,305 5,045
(17) Total Transmission Expense (9) +(16) 14,149 18,187 11,413 11,725 11,303
Source: HPC FERC Form No. 1: Annual Report of M ajor Electric Utilities, Licenses and Others, p.321.
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Workshop I
Schedule 4
Weather
Transmission Normalized Weighted
Operation and System Expense Per Labor and Expense Per
Maintenance Peak kW of System Materials kW of System
Year Expenses ^1 Demand Peak Demand Cost Index Peak Demand
(Thousand (MW) (Dollars) (1995=1.0000) (1995 Dollars)
Dollars) (1) / (2) (3) / (4)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
(5) Estimated Annual Transmission O&M Expense for the Planning Period ^2 $5.20
Ancillary Services
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Types of Ancillary
Services
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Fixed compensation
(opportunity cost)
$/Mwh
for providing non-spinning
reserve @ BidS
Energy Bid
BidS for non-spinning
reserve (paid only
when called to run)
Energy Market
Price curve
Hours
of day
Expected no. of
hours when generator would be called
to supply non-spinning reserve
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Workshop I
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