Professional Documents
Culture Documents
10%
Tăng trưởng toàn ngành
9.4% 9.4%
7.9% 8%
7.4%
6.4% 6.1% 6%
5.0%
3.1% 3.7% 4%
3.0%
2%
1.3%
0%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
-2%
2019 2020 2021 2022E HDB MBB VCB VPB OCB VIB ACB CTG TPB BID LPB TCB STB SHB
1Q22 2Q22
14%
Banks Other
12%
64.8%
59.7%
10%
55.0%
50.4%
47.3%
47.2%
8%
42.1%
40.8%
39.8%
540
37.2%
6%
32.5%
21.0%
328 4%
230
110 2%
242 133
132 112 107 0%
63
NVB TCB TPB MBB VPB VBB STB SHB BAB OCB
2020 2021 7M20 7M21 7M22
2021 2Q22
kết thúc • Kỳ vọng tiền gửi phục hồi từ động lực lãi suất hấp dẫn: Nhằm bù cho các rủi ro đang gia tăng như áp lực
lạm phát và tăng lãi suất điều hành của các nền kinh tế lớn, dẫn đến rủi ro mất giá của đồng nội địa, các ngân
hàng đang điều chỉnh tăng lãi suất để thu hút dòng tiền tìm kiếm kênh trú ẩn an toàn. Vì vậy, các đợt điều
chỉnh lãi suất sắp tới sẽ thúc đẩy tăng trưởng tiền gửi.
• Mặc dù lãi suất điều hành được giữ nguyên, kỳ vọng lãi suất từ thị trường trái phiếu ghi nhận xu hướng
tăng: Lãi suất kỳ vọng của TPCP tăng đáng kể từ tháng 3 2022, đồng pha với các đợt tăng lãi suất của FED. Lãi
suất phát hành trung bình của nhóm tổ chức tín dụng trong 7T2022 cũng tăng khoảng 70bps lên mức 5%. Lãi
suất phát hành của các doanh nghiệp khác giảm 1.72%p xuống 7.69%, do khối lượng phát hành của nhóm
TPDN có rủi ro cao giảm mạnh. Nhìn chung, lãi suất kỳ vọng từ kênh đầu tư TP sẽ tiếp tục tăng trong ngắn và
trung hạn.
Tăng trưởng tiền gửi Lãi suất TPCP Lãi suất tiền gửi (12 tháng)
) 7.0
15.0%
13.9%
6.5
6.0
9.1%
8.4%
5.5
6.7% 7.9%
6.3%
4.7% 5.0
4.5%
2.2% 4.4%
2.2% 4.5
1.9%
0.3%
4.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22
LDR CAR Tỷ lệ huy động ngắn hạn cho vay trung và dài hạn
83.2%
09/30/2023
15.7%
81.5%
35%
15.0%
14.9%
81.1%
14.3%
14.3%
14.3%
12.6%
09/30/2024
12.3%
30%
12.2%
11.9%
11.7%
11.7%
11.5%
79.5%
11.2%
11.2%
11.0%
25%
9.5%
77.1%
20%
15%
10%
TCB OCB VPB VIB CTG MSB HDB
2021 2Q22
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q22 TCB HDB VPB OCB MSB ACB VIB MBB VCB
10%
15%
8% 12%
6% 9%
4% 6%
2% 3%
0% 0%
LPB
TPB
VIB
ABB
SSB
BAB
HDB
SHB
EIB
BID
SGB
MSB
NVB
STB
VBB
BVB
CTG
VCB
OCB
VPB
PGB
MBB
TCB
VAB
KLB
NAB
ACB
PGB
KLB
NAB
LPB
HDB
BID
TPB
VIB
MBB
SSB
VCB
VPB
VBB
BVB
SHB
ABB
EIB
VAB
MSB
CTG
SGB
STB
ACB
BAB
NVB
OCB
TCB
LLR>100%
500% 4%
400%
3%
300%
2%
200%
1%
100%
0%
0%
NAB
BVB
KLB
BID
MSB
VBB
TPB
LPB
MBB
HDB
PGB
SSB
VCB
VIB
VPB
SHB
VAB
EIB
SGB
CTG
STB
ABB
ACB
BAB
NVB
OCB
TCB
NAB
BID
KLB
TPB
LPB
MBB
SSB
HDB
PGB
VIB
VCB
SHB
BVB
VBB
ACB
BAB
MSB
TCB
EIB
ABB
VAB
VPB
CTG
STB
OCB
SGB
NVB
4%
2%
0%
0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q22 VPB TCB MBB HDB VIB TPB ACB OCB VCB BID CTG STB
44.9%
42.9%
3Q21 2021 1Q22 2Q22
17,030
40.7%
16,100
15,900
38.3%
15,027
33.4%
33.1%
13,416
12,999
12,700
10,500
9,800
9,000
8,000
3,095
3,040
3,003
2,880
2,800
2,372
2,183
2,003
1,900
1,889
1,600
1,054
840
666
500
ACB VPB VCB OCB MSB TCB VIB 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q22
VCB VIETCOMBANK 380,968 5,275 424.36 84.62 0.64 9.31 3.23 21.91 1.72 3.14 15.45 109,117 1,414,673
BID BIDV 194,247 2,574 214.85 92.79 1.00 8.61 3.01 15.11 0.72 2.13 14.92 86,329 1,761,696
CTG VIETINBANK 136,724 3,056 180.38 94.99 1.26 > 9% 3.10 15.09 0.93 1.34 9.31 93,650 1,531,587
TCB TECHCOMBANK 136,223 5,769 162.85 110.35 0.66 11.00 5.81 21.69 3.59 1.32 6.73 93,041 568,729
VPB VPBANK 133,809 3,755 60.89 128.37 4.57 16.08 7.78 22.16 3.15 1.48 8.02 86,278 547,409
MBB MBBANK 102,770 4,160 267.98 82.62 0.90 >12% 5.33 25.99 2.66 1.52 6.54 62,486 607,140
HDB HDBANK 50,406 3,472 72.98 107.12 1.65 > 9% 4.41 23.38 1.94 1.52 7.22 30,790 374,612
ACB ACB 83,929 3,482 209.39 95.26 0.77 9.53 4.24 25.45 2.32 1.61 7.14 44,901 527,770
STB SACOMBANK 46,942 1,903 118.61 90.77 1.50 12.10 2.67 10.81 0.68 1.31 13.09 34,261 521,117
TPB TPBANK 44,764 3,508 152.60 93.78 0.82 11.70 4.59 22.14 1.97 1.54 8.07 25,987 292,827
VIB VIB 54,799 3,412 51.33 116.10 2.32 14.00 4.83 29.06 2.32 1.94 7.62 24,291 309,517
OCB OCB 24,795 2,684 82.70 99.51 1.32 12.30 3.00 17.22 2.07 1.07 6.74 21,805 184,491
LPB LIEN VIET BANK 23,080 3,213 110.73 115.91 1.37 N/A 3.18 23.30 1.48 0.96 4.78 16,802 289,194
MSB MARITIME BANK 28,946 2,750 95.36 102.32 1.74 10.81 2.88 18.70 2.22 1.18 6.89 22,038 203,665
SSB SEA BANK 61,606 1,868 84.65 108.09 1.65 11.64 2.81 18.83 1.74 2.62 16.65 18,663 211,664
EIB EXIMBANK 36,883 1,659 60.81 83.48 1.96 11.52 2.32 11.22 1.20 1.93 18.09 17,785 165,832
ABB AN BINH 11,009 1,783 50.16 101.68 2.34 11.81 2.85 15.12 1.31 0.94 6.56 11,729 120,937
SHB SHB BANK 40,003 2,730 75.87 110.76 1.69 9.00 3.81 21.55 1.45 1.01 5.49 35,532 506,604
10 | Industry Report
Ngành Ngân Hàng – Định giá
Mức định giá hiện tại
Vốn hóa hiện tại, ROE, và PB 12T (PB Trung bình: 1.66x) Vốn hóa hiện tại, ROE, và PE 12T (PE Trung bình: 8.07x)
4.00 18.00
3.50 16.00
VCB
BID
VCB 14.00
3.00
HDB
12.00
2.50
PB
10.00
BID
PE
2.00 CTG
VIB
8.00 STB VPB
ACB TPB
TPB ACB VIB
1.50 VPHBDBMBB OCB TCB MBB
STB CTG TCB 6.00
OCB
1.00
4.00
0.50
2.00
- -
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 - 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
ROE ROE
Nguồn: Bloomberg (10/08/2022), Mirae Asset Vietnam
11 | Industry Report
Ngành ngân hàng – P/B 5 năm của các ngân hàng
ACB HDB MBB
(x) (x) (x)
3.5 3.5 2.5
3.0 3.0
2.0
2.5 2.5
1.5 1.5
1.0
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5
0.5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2.5 1.7
2.5
1.4
2.0
1.1 1.5
1.5
0.8
Ratings and Targ t Pric History Shar pric ─), Targ t pric ▬), Not cov r d ■), Buy ▲), Trading Buy ■), Hold ●), S ll ◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Vietnam Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material
development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation m thods discuss d in this r port, in part bas d on th analyst’s stimat of futur
earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
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