DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
Demography
Is the statistical study of human population. Demography
examines the size, structure, and movements of populations
over space and time. It uses methods from history,
economics, anthropology, sociology, and other fields.
Demography is useful for governments and private
businesses as a means of analyzing and predicting social,
cultural, and economic trends related to population.
Demographers use census data, surveys, and statistical
models to analyze the size, movement, and structure of
populations.
Malthus’ Theory of Population Growth
In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus published his views on the
effect of population on food supply. Thomas Robert Malthus
was the first economist to propose a systematic theory of
population. He articulated his views regarding population in
his famous book, Essay on the Principle of Population (1798),
for which he collected empirical data to support his thesis.
His theory has two basic principles:
 Population grows at a geometric rate. Example: 2, 4, 16,
32, etc.
 Food production increases at an arithmetic rate.
Example: 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.
 Malthus considered that the population increase
should be kept down to the level at which it could be
supported by the operation of various checks on
population growth, which he categorized as
"preventive" and "positive" checks.
 Population growth would be limited when:
– preventive checks - postponement of marriage
(lowering of fertility rate), increased cost of food etc.
– positive checks - famine, war, disease, would
increase the death rate.
What did Malthus say about preventive checks?
Malthusian ideas are often supported by Western
governments because it highlights the problem of too many
mouths to feed, rather than the uneven distribution of
resources.
Positive Aspects
 Gave an example of population growth in Europe
 The theory acted as an eye opener as to need to stop
the growth rate of population
 New line of thinking whereby population the
dynamics of population were viewed in the context
of man’s welfare
 The study of population was introduced to different
fields of Social Sciences
 – Poor hygiene, no piped clean water or sewage
disposal
Negative Aspects
 POPULATION GROWTH – SLOW
 Mathematical form of theory might be wrong
 Enhancement of agricultural land aspect was Birth Rate - High
neglected Death Rate - High
 He neglected the capacity of manpower to adjust in Natural Increase - Low
agriculture Fertility Rate - High
 Preventive measures were neglected Infant Mortality Rate - High
 He emphasized only on food grains and ignored
Example Region: Various isolated communities in the least
other supply of food.
developed regions of Africa; war-torn regions (eg
Afghanistan, Sudan, Angola); political hotspots (eg North
Korea)
Esther Boserup’s Theory of Population Growth
 In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths Other Characteristics: Characterizes pre-industrial societies.
to feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of Most of the population is rural and involved in subsistence
a large population;
 In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more
people there are, the more hands there are to work;
 She argued that as population increases, more
pressure is placed on the existing agricultural
system, which stimulates invention;
 The changes in technology allow for improved crop
strains and increased yields.

agriculture.

 Due to high birth rates, the pyramid shape would

have a wide base;
 Due to high death rates, the pyramid would be very
short in height; concave shape indicates low life
expectancy.

Stage 2 – Early Expanding or Early Industrial (Rapid

Population Growth)
Stage 1 – High Stationary or Pre-Industrial  Ehrlich described this stage as the “population
explosion”
 HIGH BIRTH RATES
 HIGH BIRTH RATES
–Little or no family planning
– As STAGE 1
– Parents have many children because few survive
 FALLING DEATH RATES
– Many children are needed to work the land
– Improved medical care e.g. vaccinations , hospitals,
– Children are a sign of virility
doctors, new drugs, and scientific inventions
– Some religious beliefs and cultural traditions
– Improved sanitation and water supply
encourage large families
– Improvements in food production in terms of
quality and quantity
 HIGH DEATH RATES
– Improved transport to move food and doctors
– Disease and plague (e.g. bubonic, cholera,
– A decrease in child mortality
kwashiorkor)
– Famine , uncertain food supplies, and poor diet
 POPULATION GROWTH - RAPID
EARLY Stage 2

Birth Rate - High Stage 3 – Late Expanding or Late Industrial

Death Rate - Decreasing
Natural Increase - Increasing  FALLING BIRTH RATES
Fertility Rate - High - Family Planning utilized; contraceptives, abortions,
Infant Mortality Rate -High sterilization, and other government incentives
adopted
Example Region: Sub-Saharan Africa - A lower infant mortality rates means less pressure to
have children
Other Characteristics: Characterizes post-industrial societies.
- Increased mechanization and industrialization means
Most of the population is rural, but urbanization is increasing
less need for labor
rapidly. Dependency load begins to increase rapidly as the
- Increased desire for material possessions and less
young cohort begins to dominate the proportion of the
desire for large families
population.
- Emancipation of women

• DEATH RATES LOW

LATE Stage 2 - As Stage 2
Birth Rate - High • POPULATION GROWTH – STILL GROWING BUT SLOWING
Death Rate - Lowered
Natural Increase - Increasing rapidly EARLY Stage 3
Fertility Rate - High
Birth Rate - Decreasing
Infant Mortality Rate - Declining
Death Rate - Low
Example Region: Many African countries, Middle East Natural Increase - High, but decreasing
Fertility Rate - Decreasing
Other Characteristics: The beginning of the population Infant Mortality Rate -
“explosion”. Often, social and economic problems begin on a Decreasing
large scale. Urbanization continues to grow rapidly.
Dependency load is huge due to a massive, young cohort Example Region: South and East Asia
(<15yrs old).
Other Characteristics: Birth control is introduced and begins
wide social acceptance. Social and economic issues begin to
be addressed. Dependency load is still large due to a large
young cohort group (<15yrs old).

LATE Stage 3

Birth Rate - Decreasing to a manageable level

Death Rate - Low
Natural Increase - Decreasing sharply
Fertility Rate - Decreasing
sharply Infant Mortality Rate -
Lowered

Example Region: Latin America, Tiger Economies

Other Characteristics: Ends the population explosion. People

 As death rates are addressed, the population choose smaller families due to many social and economic
explosion begins;
 The height of the pyramid grows to reflect the
prevention of more deaths; shape becomes less
concave as life expectancy increases;
 The width of the base remains large due to the
ongoing high birth rates
factors. Urbanization dominates. Population stabilization  Birth rates and death rates are low; as fertility
begins. Population continues to grow due to the large young continues to decline, an AGING SOCIETY emerges.
population reaching childbearing age.  Pyramid seems to “invert”…

 As birth rates begin to be addressed, the base begins

to stabilize and eventually narrow;
Criticism of the DTM
 Death rates are low and stabilized, meaning that the
pyramid continues to grow higher.  The model is an over-generalization of the
industrialized European experience;
Stage 4 – Low Stationary or Low Fluctuating  Model is too rigid in assuming all countries proceed
from stage 1-4; it ignores variables and exceptions
 BIRTH RATES LOW
(eg. War, political turmoil);
Fertility rates plunge to below replacement rate
 Industrialization is difficult to achieve for LEDC’s in a
because:
trading system that protects the industries of
o Valuation of women beyond childbearing and
MEDC’s;
motherhood becomes important
o Increasing value is placed on material goods over
family size in modern industrialized society
o Widespread choice of contraception by families World Population Growth

• DEATH RATES LOW The world population increased from 1 billion in 1800 to
Child mortality reduced and life expectancy around 8 billion today.
increased due to: The world population growth rate declined from around 2%
o Capital investment in medical technology per year 50 years ago to under 1.0% per year.
o Widespread knowledge of healthy diet and
lifestyle Future population growth – This article focuses on the future
of population growth. We explain how we know that
• POPULATION GROWTH – SLOW OR DECLINING (due to population growth is coming to an end, and present
aging societies) projections of the drivers of population growth.
Birth Rate - Low Life expectancy – Improving health leads to falling mortality
Death Rate - Low with spurts as a result of an and is, therefore, the factor that increases the size of the
aging society Natural Increase - Low or negative population. Life expectancy, which measures the age of
Fertility Rate - Near or death, has doubled in every region in the world as we show
below replacement rate Infant Mortality Rate - here.
Low
Child & infant mortality – Mortality at a young age has a
Example Region: MEDC’s, China particularly big impact on demographic change.
Other Characteristics: Population growth no longer a social Fertility rates – Rapid population growth has been a
and economic issue. Birth and death rates fluctuate minimally temporary phenomenon in many countries. It comes to an
and natural increase stops. An overwhelmingly urban society. end when the average number of births per woman – the
Dependency load is small (large working age group). fertility rate – declines. In the article we show the data and
explain why fertility rates declined.

Age Structure – What is the age profile of populations around

the world? How did it change and what will the age structure
of populations look like in the future?

5 most populous countries are:

1. China (1.43 billion)
2. India (1.41 billion)
3. United States (337 million)
4. Indonesia (274 million)
5. Pakistan (231 million)

Population growth rate by country and region Global

population growth peaked in the early 1960s. But how has
population growth varied across the world?
There are two metrics we can use to look at population
growth rates:
(1) ‘Natural population growth’: this is the change in
population as determined by births and deaths only.
Migration flows are not counted.
(2) Population growth rate: this is the change in population
as determined by births, deaths, and migration flows.