產業評析

2022/12/6
生技產業
剛需支撐，優質個股持續揚飛

永豐觀點
全球生技產業在剛性需求支撐下，不論製藥或醫療器材市場穩增長態勢不變，且在
股價表現上，根據過往經驗顯示，通膨期間全球生技類股表現通常較佳，加以近年
台灣生技類股價走勢與景氣優劣連動性較低，反而以題材面驅動力較強，因 2023
相關個股 年解盲、取證、里程金入帳等相關題材依舊豐沛，研究處認為類股交易活絡度應可
EPS 延續。
股號 股名 2022F 2023F 投資建議
1795 美時 12.30 14.03 B 投資評價與建議
4114 健喬 2.37 2.40 B 維持買進：投資建議上，以 2023 年有實質獲利成長支撐之個股為首選，維持買進
4107 邦特 7.38 7.69 B (1) 受惠美國市場血癌藥年出貨量逐年增加，帶動未來數年營運成長動能無虞之美
3218 大學光 10.42 12.01 B 時，目標價 280 元；(2) 利基型藥物市場持續站穩領先腳步且穩健成長外，也積極
4164 承業 2.54 3.19 B 透過取得原廠藥證或策略聯盟方式加速產品銷售量能下，2023 年本業營收及常續
資料來源：永豐投顧研究處整理 性獲利將可維持雙位數成長表現之健喬，目標價 50 元；(3) 由於眼科治療屬剛性
需求，大學光營運服務涵蓋全年齡完整項目、故在具品牌優勢與集團規模效益下，
生技類股指數與加權相對走勢 隨持續展店與高階手術服務佔比上升趨勢明確下，中長期營運維持雙位數成長表現
無虞，目標價 360 元；(4) 隨醫院等客戶疫後採購行為陸續恢復正常，且邦特也持
8000 20000
續進行市場拓展下，2023 年營收及獲利將溫和上升，加以公司目前宜蘭廠還保留
6000 15000
20%產能可彈性調整下，整體營收還有再調升空間，另宜蘭新廠 2Q24 投產，加計
4000 10000
代工訂單，中長期營運動能可期，目標價 138 元；(5) 隨疫情趨緩，醫院採購陸續
2000 5000
恢復常軌後，承業 2023 年對醫院醫療設備出貨樂觀，另北醫 IBA 質子治療 3Q22
0 0
21/11/22 22/4/20 22/9/5 啟動、滅菌廠 3Q23 開始接單及富康藥局持續擴張下，皆有助再添承業中長期營運
生技 加權指數
成長動能，目標價 48 元。
資料來源：TEJ；永豐投顧研究處整理

表一：生技推薦個股財務預估及投資評價表
EPS 評價面
股號 股名 評等
2021 2022(F) 2023(F) PER 歷史區間
1795 美時 5.34 12.30 14.03 18 15-20 B，280
4114 健喬 0.97 2.37 2.40 21 20-30 B，50
4107 邦特 6.22 7.38 7.69 18 15-20 B，138
3218 大學光 7.82 10.42 12.01 30 20-30 B，360
4164 承業 2.37 2.54 3.19 15 12-18 B，48
陳奕均 fion.chen @sinopac.com
資料來源：永豐投顧研究處整理；Dec. 2022

永豐證券投資顧問股份有限公司 1
Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures.
SinoPac Securities (SinoPac) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. SinoPac research is prepared by SinoPac Securities Investment Service, whose analysts are not registered in the USA. SinoPac research is distributed in
the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.
 產業現況與分析
剛需支撐，全球生技產業成長態勢延續：全球製藥市場在剛性需求支撐下，預計未
來幾年在遺傳生物學等新興技術持續發展下，將推動整體行業再成長，預估 2021-
2029 年年複合成長率約 15.6%。醫療器材部分，隨 2H21 起各國陸續鬆綁防疫政
策並將疫情共存視為新常態後，非緊急醫療行為重啟，醫療器材產業業態也在醫院
持續恢復正常採購下，逐漸重回常軌，預估 2021-2024 年年複合成長率約 5.6%。

台生技類股走勢受題材影響較大，2023 年題材依舊豐沛，類股表現將不寂寞：近
年台灣生技類股價表現與景氣優劣連動性較低，反而以題材面驅動力較強，且從
2020 年 5 月起在合一糖尿病足部潰瘍新藥三期解盲成功，緊接藥華紅血球增多症
新藥 Besremi 陸續於歐洲及美國等地上市、美時重磅血癌藥 Lenalidomide 美國市
場上市等利多訊息簇擁下，生技類股在重點公司開始有實質業績成果貢獻下，投資
結構轉趨健康，且單一公司營運波動對整體投資氛圍影響性也不若過往明顯，由於
2023 年解盲、取證、里程金入帳等相關題材依舊豐沛，研究處認為類股交易活絡
度應可延續。

表二：2023 年生技類股題材依舊豐沛

資料來源：永豐投顧研究處整理，Dec. 2022

美時，國際化腳步不歇：美時除亞太等市場持續透過新品開發、渠道擴充等方式維
持營運成長外，血癌藥 Lena 就九月上市鋪售以來，除價格穩健外，目前終端需求
也相當不錯，因美時與原廠出貨協議為至 2026 年 1 月前出貨將逐年增加下，研究
處預估未來幾年將貢獻美時稅後 EPS 10-25 元，而 2023 年將採每季出貨，由於今
年為九月一次性鋪貨，故就 2023 年來看，除 3Q 外，其餘三季營收 YoY 將皆有不
錯成長表現，且除血癌藥，美時於美國市場也取得 FDA 核准急性白血病用藥
Midostaurin 軟膠囊暫時許可，有機會挑戰 FTF 資格，並與原廠共享約 5 億美金之
市場份額。總計預估美時 2022 年營收 145.4 億元(+15%YoY)，毛利率 54.1%，稅
後淨利 32.3 億元(+130.3%YoY)，稅後 EPS 12.3 元，2023 年營收 158.3 億元
(+8.9%YoY)，毛利率 56.1%，稅後淨利 36.9 億元(+14%YoY)，稅後 EPS 14.03 元，
維持買進，目標價 280 元( 20 X 2023 EPS)。

永豐證券投資顧問股份有限公司 2
健喬，本業營運持續向上：呼吸類產品佔健喬營收比重逾 20%，為公司最大科別佔
比，因 4Q-1Q 為秋冬季節呼吸類用藥高峰，研究處預期 4Q 營收將再創高至 12.1
億元(+9.1%QoQ、+31.4%YoY)，毛利率也在產品組合轉佳及經濟規模帶動下，將
可回升至 42-43%，總計預估健喬 2022 年營收 43.4 億元(+34.1%YoY)，毛利率
41.4%，稅後淨利 2.04 億元(+167.5%YoY)，稅後 EPS 2.37 元，2023 年營收 51.2
億元(+18%YoY)，毛利率 42.1%，稅後淨利 8.26 億元(+1.6%YoY)，稅後 EPS 2.4
元，若扣除 2022 年一次性土地處分利益 2.58 億元，本業獲利成長性達 44%，整
體而言，除健喬母公司在利基型藥物市場持續站穩領先腳步且穩健成長外，公司也
積極透過取得原廠藥證或策略聯盟方式加速產品銷售量能，另子公司益得旗下兩項
氣喘類藥物美國市場將進入開花結果階段，因全球 MDI 劑型開發藥廠有限且市場
銷值極大，故研究處認為隨益得藥品美國市場將陸續上市下，授權潛力及未來銷售
動能可期，健喬可望母憑子貴，維持買進建議，目標價 50 元( 21 X 2023 EPS)。

邦特，疫後復甦動能持續：由於客戶在全球疫情趨緩後，對一般性之醫療耗材產品
拉貨持續增溫下，邦特 4Q 月營收將可維持 1.7-1.8 億元水位，預估 4Q 營收 5.29
億元(+0.9%QoQ、+9.1%YoY)，毛利率隨軟袋比重降下，應可回復至 43-44%，
總計 2022 年營收 20.1 億元(+9.9%YoY)，毛利率 42.9%，稅後淨利 5.12 億元
(+18.6%YoY)，稅後 EPS 7.38 元，2023 年來看，因醫療器材產品屬剛性需求，故
目前除既有客戶下單穩健成長外，邦特主力產品 TPU 導管也積極進行新市場如美
國等地之拓展，迴路管部份需求端也再放大，另呼吸類產品在菲律賓廠相關執照陸
續取得後，也開始侵蝕中國競爭對手訂單下，預估邦特 2023 年營收將溫和成長至
21.1 億元(+5.2%YoY)，毛利率 44.3%，稅後淨利 5.33 億元(+4.1%YoY)，稅後 EPS
7.69 元，因公司目前宜蘭廠還保留 20%產能可彈性調整，故整體營收還有再調升
空間，除外，宜蘭新廠 2Q24 投產，加計代工訂單，中長期營運動能可期，維持買
進，目標價 138 元( 18 X 2023 EPS)。

大學光，業績表現一路向前：由於 10/11 及 11/28 大學光分別在桃園及屏東分別

有進行門市喬遷新址及擴大營運，預估將帶動 4Q 營收再創高至 9.24 億元，2022
年營收 34.6 億元(+31.5%YoY)，毛利率 61.2%，稅後淨利 8.3 億元(+39.8%YoY)，
稅後 EPS 以除權後股本計算為 10.42 元，2023 年在高階手術佔比提升、持續展店
及引進新技術與設備下，預估營收將再增加至 39.6 億元(+14.5%YoY)，毛利率
60.8%，稅後淨利 9.6 億元(+15.3%YoY)，稅後 EPS 12.01 元。由於眼科治療屬剛
性需求，研究處認為大學光在品牌優勢已建立下，隨持續擴店且服務項目再升級，
中長期營運延續雙位數成長表現無虞，維持買進，目標價 360 元( 30 X 2023 EPS)。

承業，主力事業群 2023 年展望樂觀：因 4Q 進入設備認列高峰期，預估承業 4Q

營收將爬升至 9.21 億元(-29.4%QoQ、+7.3%YoY)，2022 年營收 30.9 億元
(+26.6%YoY)，毛利率 32.2%，稅後淨利 4.1 億元(+16.9%YoY)，稅後 EPS 2.54
元，2023 年營收 35.5 億元(+16.8%YoY)，毛利率 33.4%，稅後淨利 5.14 億元
(+21.4%YoY)，稅後 EPS 3.19 元。整體而言，由於(1) 隨疫情趨緩，醫院採購陸續
恢復常軌後，承業 2023 年對醫院醫療設備出貨樂觀，預估設備端將有雙位數成長
表現；(2) 北醫 IBA 質子治療 3Q22 啟動、滅菌廠 3Q23 開始接單及富康藥局持續
擴張，皆有助再添公司中長期營運成長動能，建議買進，目標價 48 元( 15 X 2023
EPS )。

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110 金管投顧新字第 024 號

SinoPac 投資評等
B：Buy 買進：未來 12 個月該股票表現將優於大盤
N：Neutral 中立：未來 12 個月該股票表現將與大盤一致
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