產業評析

2021/7/8
台聚集團
6 月營收僅亞聚略優於預期，維持買進評等並上修目標價

永豐觀點
雖市場預期整體塑化產品報價已於 2Q21 見高，後續報價及利差恐仍逐季修正，然
研究處認為市場多半對 2H21 台聚集團各家公司已有逐季修正預期，若下游需求在
跌價後仍有守，則集團各家公司仍可望維持穩定獲利，依 2021 年稅後 EPS 位階來
相關個股 看，其評價區間可望以 2010-2011 年高緣趨近，研究處認為 EVA、PVC 相關廠家
EPS 第二波評價拉升行情仍值得期待。
股號 股名 2020 2021F 投資建議
1304 台聚 2.25 3.23 N 投資評價與建議
1305 華夏 2.95 4.26 N 6 月份多數下游塑料產品報價較 5 月份下跌 2-13%不等，僅 EVA 報價仍持平且續
1308 亞聚 1.9 3.79 B 處高檔及 GPS 報價修正後略有反彈，PVC、ABS 雖有跌價但報價仍有守，整體而
1309 台達化 5.58 4.7 N 言，報價及利差相對較佳產品仍為 EVA，研究處認為 2H21 EVA 需求仍可望維持較
資料來源：永豐投顧研究處整理 佳格局，PVC 則仍需等待 3Q21 較淡季節及東南亞疫情轉緩和，因此目前僅維持亞
聚買進建議，目標價由 32.5 元上修至 45 元(1.95 X2021 BVPS，Upside 20.64%)。
塑化類股指數與加權相對走勢
表一：台聚集團獲利預估及投資評價表
1000 20000

800 15000 EPS 評價面

600
10000 股號 股名 2019 2020 2021 (F) PB 歷史區間 評等
400
5000
200 1304 台聚 1.19 2.25 3.23 1.9 0.5~2.6 N
0 0
20/6/19 20/11/9 21/4/7 1305 華夏 1.16 2.95 4.26 2 0.7~2.5 N
塑化 加權指數
1308 亞聚 1.41 1.9 3.79 1.6 0.7~2.2 B，32.5→45
資料來源：TEJ；永豐投顧研究處整理
1309 台達化 1.16 5.58 4.7 2.0 0.5~2.6 N

資料來源：永豐投顧研究處整理及預估，Jul. 2021

營運現況與分析
6 月份多數下游塑料產品報價皆較上月有所修正，僅 EVA 報價仍維持高檔及 GPS
報價略有反彈，時序進入 2H21，研究處較看好產品為 EVA，主要係因 3Q21 鞋材
需求季增而 4Q21 太陽能級 EVA 需求可望迎來年度高峰，PVC 近期因中國需求略
有回溫，現貨報價近兩週略有止跌跡象，然因近期東南亞疫情、雨季等因素，短期
需求趨緩，然隨歐美市場復甦，且待東南亞疫情趨緩後，對 PVC 需求仍不看淡。
王章妮 channie.wang@sinopac.com

永豐證券投資顧問股份有限公司 1
Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures.
SinoPac Securities (SinoPac) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. SinoPac research is prepared by SinoPac Securities Investment Service, whose analysts are not registered in the USA. SinoPac research is distributed in
the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.
 表二：台聚集團 6 月份合併營收 單位：百萬元
代號 公司 月營收 MoM (%) YoY (%) 累計營收 YTD (%)

1304 台聚 6,054 6.85 53.17 33,943 52.8

1305 華夏 1,685 20.56 77.62 9,554 62.54

1308 亞聚 794 7.24 75.88 4,188 56.74

1309 台達化 1,864 2.02 46 10,104 54.86

資料來源：CMoney；永豐投顧研究處整理， Jul. 2021

台聚：6 月營收 60.54 億元(+6.9% MoM、+53.2%YoY)，符合預期

6 月營收 60.54 億元，+6.9% MoM，+53.2% YoY，營收符合研究處預期，觀察 6
月份 Platts 現貨報價 EVA 月均報價 2,730 美元/噸，MoM 持平，+94.2% YoY，
LDPE 月均報價 1,265 美元/噸，-13.4% MoM，+44.6% YoY，HDPE 月均報價 1,019
美元/噸，-4.3% MoM，+24.2% YoY，LLDPE 月均報價 1,016 美元/噸，-3.3%
MoM，+30.3% YoY，公司 2Q21 營收 177.47 億元，+9.6% QoQ、+63.5% YoY，
營收略低於研究處預估之 185.27 億元，主要係因 PE 報價跌幅高於預期及華夏營
收低於預期所致，考量 2H21 PE 新增產能投產，報價恐仍承壓且利差維持不易，就
產品組合考量，目前維持中立投資評等。

華夏：6 月營收 16.85 億元(+20.6%MoM、+77.6%YoY)，略低於預期

6 月營收 16.85 億元，+20.6% MoM，+77.6% YoY，略低於預期，月增幅度較大
主要因公司 5 月份安排歲修，6 月份銷量恢復正常，觀察 6 月份 Platts 現貨報價
PVC 月均報價 1,305 美元/噸，-7% MoM，+69.8% YoY，VCM 月均報價 1,061 美
元/噸，-8.8% MoM，+81% YoY，6 月份 PVC 廠家合約價多半較 5 月份下滑 100-
190 美元/噸不等，主要仍受印度及東南亞國家疫情影響市場需求所致，華夏 2Q21
營收 45.76 億元，-8.1% QoQ、+100.1% YoY，低於研究處原預估之 2Q21 營收
50.86 億元，主要仍受歲修影響產銷所致，近期 PVC 現貨報價似有止跌跡象，雖東
南亞需求仍疲弱，但中國 PVC 社會庫存位處低檔且內需略有回溫使得近兩週 PVC
現貨報價略有支撐，然過往 6-9 月為東南亞雨季，PVC 需求較淡，市場預期 7、8
月 PVC 報價恐仍承壓，短期上因 2Q21 乙烯、EDC 報價基期仍較高，且營收低於
研究處預期，研判 2Q21 獲利仍有下修空間，適逢 PVC 進入需求淡季，評價恐仍
有下修空間，然因 PVC 供需格局仍為相對較穩定之產品，建議 8 月底至 9 月可觀
察印度是否有排燈節前回補庫存需求，再伺機布局，目前研究處維持中立投資評等。

亞聚：6 月營收 7.94 億元(+7.2% MoM、+75.9% YoY)，略優於預期

6 月營收 7.94 億元，+7.2% MoM，+75.9% YoY，單月營收略優於研究處預期，
觀察 6 月份 Platts 現貨報價 EVA 月均報價 2,730 美元/噸，MoM 持平，+94.2%
YoY，LDPE 月均報價 1,265 美元/噸，-13.4% MoM，+44.6% YoY，研判 6 月份
銷量較 5 月份略有回溫，公司 2Q21 營收 23.36 億元，+26.1% QoQ、+72% YoY，
營收符合研究處預估之 23.62 億元，並維持 2Q21 預估稅後 EPS 1.17 元看法不變，
展望 2H21，3Q21 鞋材進入出貨較旺季節，太陽能級 EVA 需求亦可望逐季增溫，
雖中國 2Q21 新增 EVA 產能已有開出，然研究處認為其 2H21 需求仍可消化新增
之供給，惟報價預估仍將略為下修，研究處維持 2021 年稅後 EPS 3.79 元看法不
變，過往全年稅後 EPS 3 元以上時（2010-2011 年）評價上緣曾來到 PBR 2.3X，
目前 PBR 1.6X，研判股價上檔仍有空間，投資建議維持買進，目標價由 32.5 元上
修至 45 元（1.95 X2021 BVPS）
。

台達化：6 月營收 18.64 億元(+2%MoM、+46%YoY)，符合預期

6 月營收 18.64 億元，+2% MoM，+46% YoY，營收符合研究處預期，觀察 6 月

永豐證券投資顧問股份有限公司 2
份 Platts 現貨報價 ABS 月均報價 2,359 美元/噸，-2.1% MoM，+70% YoY，GPS
月均報價 1,398 美元/噸，+2% MoM，+55.7% YoY，公司 2Q21 營收 55.68 億
元，+22.8% QoQ、+56.1% YoY，營收符合研究處預估之 55.43 億元，並維持 2Q21
預估稅後 EPS 1.54 元看法不變，近期 ABS 報價因中國家電內銷、外銷於近月略為
疲弱，且庫存積累，ABS 買家需求轉為平淡，導致報價呈逐週緩降趨勢，雖報價仍
守在歷史相對高檔價位，然若 3Q21 中國家電庫存未見消化、內需市場若未能有明
顯回溫，適逢彰州奇美 ABS 新增產能投產之際，屆時 ABS 報價恐有較大修正壓力，
且因上游原料 AN、BD 及 SM 報價仍處高檔，利差於 2Q-3Q21 恐有較大幅度之壓
縮，目前研究處維持中立投資評等。

表三：上游原料產品現貨月均報價 單位：美元/噸
產品 06/2021 05/2021 06/2020 MoM (%) YoY (%) YTD (%)

油腦 645 601 367 7.38 75.66 51.47

乙烯 933 1,086 801 -14.15 16.38 -4.36

丙烯 1,013 1,116 781 -9.29 29.60 -0.49

丁二烯 1,233 1,028 360 19.95 242.36 -5.19

苯 1,018 1,045 430 -2.62 136.40 56.28

資料來源：Platts；永豐投顧研究處整理，Jul. 2021

表四：中間原料產品現貨月均報價 單位：美元/噸
產品 06/2021 05/2021 06/2020 MoM (%) YoY (%) YTD (%)

Phenol 1,216 1,259 802 -3.38 51.65 39.00

PX 882 850 541 3.70 62.84 49.09

EDC 689 700 203 -1.61 240.12 32.45

VCM 1,061 1,164 586 -8.81 81.02 7.74

SM 1,203 1,289 661 -6.61 82.05 31.80

資料來源：Platts；永豐投顧研究處整理，Jul. 2021

表五：泛用塑膠產品現貨月均報價 單位：美元/噸
產品 06/2021 05/2021 06/2020 MoM (%) YoY (%) YTD (%)

PVC 1,305 1,404 769 -7.03 69.76 14.47

EVA 2,730 2,730 1,406 0.00 94.18 12.84

LDPE 1,265 1,460 875 -13.36 44.57 -9.64

LLDPE 1,016 1,051 780 -3.33 30.29 -1.33

HDPE 1,019 1,065 820 -4.34 24.24 -2.98

PP 1,086 1,126 886 -3.55 22.57 -1.47

GPS 1,398 1,370 898 2.01 55.71 1.27

ABS 2,359 2,409 1,388 -2.08 70.00 5.30

資料來源：Platts；永豐投顧研究處整理，Jul. 2021

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表六：化纖相關產品現貨月均報價 單位：美元/噸
產品 06/2021 05/2021 06/2020 MoM (%) YoY (%) YTD (%)

EG 641 635 423 0.91 51.39 28.92

PTA 680 663 438 2.57 55.11 45.40

AN 2,328 2,518 1,006 -7.55 131.30 43.23

CPL 2,036 2,040 1,101 -0.18 84.90 38.05

資料來源：Platts；永豐投顧研究處整理，Jul. 2021

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109 金管投顧新字第 006 號

SinoPac 投資評等
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