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The Impact of The Disease Early Warning System in Responding To Natural Disasters and Conflict Crises in Pakistan
The Impact of The Disease Early Warning System in Responding To Natural Disasters and Conflict Crises in Pakistan
Report
أثر نظام اإلنذار املبكر باألمراض يف االستجابة للكوارث الطبيعية وأزمات النزاع يف باكستان
احسن رضا خان، حممد منري، خليف ب ّله حممود، برجيس مظهر قايض،موسى رحيم خان
وختفيف، وكان الغرض منه إجراء تقصيات فورية، مبارشة يف باكستان2005 أدخل نظام اإلنذار املبكر باألمراض بعد حدوث زلزال عام:اخلالصـة
إىل جانب أزمة، من فيضانات وزالزل، وقد تم إعادة بناء شبكات نظم اإلنذار املبكر باألمراض خالل الكوارث التالية.وطأة فاشيات األمراض
مع استجابات يف، وقد أدى نظام اإلنذار املبكر باألمراض إىل حتذيرات واستقصاءات مبكرة. لدى النازحني يف داخل البالد2009 – 2008 عامي
من خالل، ومن خالل نظام اإلنذار املبكر باألمراض أمكن تفادي أخطار فاشيات األمراض.فعالة يف مكافحة األوبئة َّ سامهت مسامه ًة،الوقت املالئم
ِّخ
187 مع مكافحة، وذلك عرب اتاذ اإلجراءات االستباقية الرضورية،2009 – 2005 إنذار ًا أبلغ عنه يف األعوام1360 إنذارات وبالغات بلغ عددها
لتـرصد األمراض أصبح جزء ًا ال يتجزأ من
ُّ ّ سهلت تكنولوجيا نظام اإلنذار
املبكر إعداد نظام ّ ، ويف أعقاب الكوارث.فعالة َّ فاشية
َّ مؤكدة مكافحة
باعتباره إحدى، وإثبات دوره الريادي، وهتدف هذه الدراسة إىل تسجيل النجاح الذي ح َّققه نظام اإلنذار املبكر باألمراض.النظام الصحي الوطني
. ضمن التدخالت لالستجابة للطوارئ الصحية،األولويات
ABSTRACT The disease early warning system (DEWS) was introduced in the immediate aftermath of the 2005
earthquake in Pakistan, with the objective to undertake prompt investigation and mitigation of disease outbreaks.
The DEWS network was replicated successfully during subsequent flood and earthquake disasters as well as during
the 2008–09 internally displaced persons’ crisis. DEWS-generated alerts, prompt investigations and timely responses
had an effective contribution to the control of epidemics. Through DEWS, 1360 reported alerts during 2005–09
averted the risk of disease outbreaks through pre-emptive necessary measures, while the 187 confirmed outbreaks
were effectively controlled. In the aftermath of the disasters, DEWS technology also facilitated the development of
a disease-surveillance system that became an integral part of the district health system. This study aims to report the
DEWS success and substantiate its lead role as a priority emergency health response intervention.
Effets du système d’alerte précoce pour les maladies sur la riposte aux crises entraînées par les catastrophes
naturelles et les conflits au Pakistan
RÉSUMÉ Le système d’alerte précoce pour les maladies a été mis en place immédiatement après le tremblement de
terre survenu au Pakistan en 2005, dans le but d’entreprendre des recherches et d’atténuer rapidement les flambées
de maladies. Le réseau de ce système a été remis en service avec succès lors des inondations et des tremblements de
terre suivants, ainsi qu’en 2008–2009 lors de la crise des déplacements internes de population. Les alertes générées
par le système d’alerte précoce pour les maladies, les recherches rapides et la riposte opportune ont contribué
efficacement à la lutte contre les épidémies. Grâce au système, 1360 alertes émises entre 2005 et 2009 ont permis
d’éviter le risque de flambées de maladies au moyen de mesures préventives, et 187 flambées confirmées ont été
endiguées de manière efficace. Suite aux différentes catastrophes, la technologie liée à ce système a également
facilité la mise en place d’un système de surveillance des maladies qui fait désormais partie intégrante du système
de santé des districts. Le but de cette étude est de décrire la réussite du système d’alerte précoce et de prouver son
rôle déterminant en tant qu’intervention prioritaire dans la riposte sanitaire aux situations d’urgence.
World Health Organization, Country Office Islamabad, Pakistan (Correspondence to M. Rahim: khanm@pak.emro.who.int).
1
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Introduction 10 out of 11 measles’ outbreaks either investigated and the necessary response
occurred in postconflict situations with action considered.
In the past five years a range of humani- collapsed health systems and disrupted The objective of this paper is to re-
tarian disasters has cumulatively affected immunization services or in settings view the DEWS implementation proc-
over eight million people and mobilized characterized by poor or no vaccina- ess and report the outcomes attained
enormous national and international tion of the target population prior to through this successful experience ex-
humanitarian responses in Pakistan. The displacement; a high case fatality rate of tended over four major emergencies that
earthquake of 8 October 2005, which over 5%, significantly higher than that affected Pakistan during 2005–2009.
jolted the northern parts of the country, observed in a stable population, was
was the most devastating humanitarian reported from six of the nine outbreaks
crisis that has hit Pakistan for many dec- reviewed [6]. Methods
ades. In June 2007, the cyclone Yemyin No fatalities were recorded among
and flash floods devastated large parts Burundian refugees in Tanzanian camps The DEWS data included the number
of Sindh and Baluchistan provinces, and of consultations and deaths disaggre-
and among tsunami victims in India, sub-
the situation was further exacerbated in gated by age and gender obtained from
stantiated by the active surveillance and
2008 by an earthquake that affected two all participating units, including public
early case detection and management
districts of Baluchistan. In 2008–09, sector health facilities, improvised facili-
in both of these displaced populations
the evolving security challenges in the ties in camps and mobile medical teams,
[7]. Applying disease-control measures
Federally Administered Tribal Areas using a standard reporting form. A com-
after an initial assessment of the emer-
(FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa re- puter application in Microsoft Access
gency situation is not a guarantee that
sulted in the displacement of over 2.6 was utilized for data entry and analysis.
communicable diseases will not spread
million people. The collated information included the
[8]. Conversely, the organization of an
Massive population displacements weekly outpatient data, reported alerts
early warning system, reporting a set of
are generally associated with high rates and detected outbreaks during all four
selected notifiable diseases and envisag-
of mortality due to infectious diseases major emergencies in Pakistan from
ing an effective investigation and rapid
[1–3]. Death rates over 60-fold from 2005 to 2009.
diagnostic confirmation, characterizes
baseline have been recorded in refugee The DEWS coverage expanded with
the core strategy for the effective con-
and displaced people, with over three- the evolving situation and the number of
trol of epidemics during emergencies
quarters of these being caused by reporting units changed over time. To
[8–12].
communicable diseases [2]. In 1994, adjust to this change, the reported data
between 6% and 10% of the Rwandan DEWS is a mechanism offering
were analysed by calculating the average
refugee population died during their prompt and early detection of potential
number of detected cases, alerts and
early arrival in Zaire, a death rate that outbreaks and providing opportunities
outbreaks per 100 reporting units, as a
was two to three times higher than for immediate response [13,14]. DEWS
standard measure for trend analysis that
previous reports from Thailand, Sudan was introduced and implemented in the
was carried out for four main diseases,
and Somalia and predominantly related aftermath of the 2005 earthquake as the measles, acute watery diarrhoea, acute
to acute diarrhoeal disease outbreaks disease-surveillance network of choice jaundice syndrome and dengue fever, as
[4]. In the Darfur crisis between March and this successful system was replicat- they accounted for the majority of the
2003 and December 2008, 80% of the ed in subsequent disasters. Under the reported alerts and detected outbreaks.
estimated excess deaths (300 000) reg- parameters of DEWS, a regular weekly
istered during the stabilization period reporting system, covering 16 selected
were caused by communicable diseases priority diseases and conditions of Results
such as diarrhoea [3]. public health importance, was initiated
Displaced populations in camp [15,16]. Utilizing the DEWS network, The DEWS network was implemented
settings are at high risk of infectious health workers were able to detect the within two weeks following the 2005
diseases due to a range of risk factors first indication of a DEWS-notifiable earthquake and covered the affected
that act synergistically, e.g. inadequate disease or condition, providing the districts in close collaboration with the
shelter and overcrowding, unsafe drink- opportunity to prevent its spread and Ministry of Health, the Government of
ing water supply system, poor sanita- related morbidity and mortality. Every Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK)
tion, poor personal hygiene, low vaccine disease alert reported from any of the and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and
coverage and disruption of health serv- participating health facilities operating health cluster partners. Standard case
ices [5]. A review study reported that in the affected areas was immediately definitions were clearly outlined and
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alert and outbreak thresholds for the pri- 2008 earthquake in Baluchistan and the epidemic threshold level or confirmed
ority notifiable diseases and conditions 2008–2009 internally displaced per- evident outbreaks.
explicitly defined, to ensure uniformity sons (IDPs) crisis in FATA and Khyber DEWS teams were deployed in the
of reporting, timeliness and detection Pakhtunkhwa. By December 2009, the target districts to develop the surveil-
accuracy and to undertake immediate DEWS network had expanded to 1319 lance network infrastructure and train
control measures when necessary. health facilities in 50 emergency-affect- health care providers on standard case
Table 1 illustrates the alert and ed districts. From October 2005 to definitions, data collection and report-
outbreak thresholds for the priority December 2009, more than 28 million ing, including alerts, and to initiate an
diseases and conditions under DEWS consultations were recorded, with acute immediate response when outbreaks
surveillance. These stated definitions respiratory infection being the leading were confirmed. The district health of-
and thresholds improved the sensitiv- cause and accounting for around seven fices were supported with information
ity of reporting and impacted on the technology equipment and software
million (25%) consultations, followed
promptness of response interventions. for data collection and management.
by acute diarrhoea (8%), suspected
An exhaustive surveillance network Contingency stockpiling of medicines
malaria (5%) and scabies (5%).
was established and expanded, covering and supplies was organized at strategic
all the functioning health facilities in Figure 1 illustrates the framework of district locations to ensure a prompt
the affected districts. The number of the sequential tasks and related support, and effective response. Sample col-
reporting sites in the 2005 earthquake- and capacity-building activities relevant lection and transportation were also
affected districts had increased from an to DEWS. All detected alerts led to facilitated to access the specialized labo-
initial 19 to 133 by December 2005. The verification, investigation, confirmation ratory facilities of the National Institute
same DEWS network was established and mitigation response interventions. of Health, Islamabad, a World Health
in all subsequent disasters, such as the Investigation results uncovered mis Organization (WHO) collaborating
floods in Sindh and Baluchistan, the diagnoses, detection of cases below the centre.
Table 1 The set diagnostic thresholds for alerts and outbreaks relevant to the disease entities incorporated in the disease
early warning system (DEWS) surveillance network
Disease/condition Thresholds
Alerts Outbreaks
Acute lower respiratory Twice the average number of cases of the previous Clustering of cases in a single location above the
infection three weeks for a given location alert threshold
Acute upper respiratory Twice the average number of cases of the previous
Not specified until infectious agent is identified
infection three weeks for a given location
Acute diarrhoea (non Twice the average number of cases of the previous Clustering of cases in a single location above the
cholera) three weeks for a given location alert threshold
Acute watery diarrhoea One suspected case A confirmed case, or a cluster of three or more
(suspected cholera) suspected cases in a single locality
Bloody diarrhoea Three or more cases in one location Doubling of case-load from alert threshold in
one location
Haemorrhagic fever One probable case One confirmed case
Acute jaundice syndrome Three or more cases in one location A cluster of 8–10 cases in one location
Malaria Twice the average number of cases of the previous Clustering of cases in a single location above the
three weeks for a given location alert threshold
Measles One case Five or more cases in a single location
Meningococcal meningitis One case Two or more confirmed cases from a single
location
Acute flaccid paralysis One suspected case One confirmed case
Unexplained fever One death or twice the average number of cases of Not specified until infectious agent is identified
the previous three weeks for a given location
Neonatal tetanus One case requires investigation for safe birth None (does not spread)
practices
Scabies Twice the average number of cases of the previous To be determined by trends (recently added to
three weeks for a given location surveillance)
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Table 2 Alerts and outbreaks reported through the DEWS surveillance network related to the three natural disasters that hit
Pakistan during 2005–2008 and the 2008–2009 IDP crisis
Diseases/ Earthquake, Floods, Floods and IDP crisis, Total
conditions PAK and Khyber Sindh earthquake, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa Baluchistan Pakhtunkhwa
Nov. 05–Dec. 09 Aug. 07–Dec. 09 Aug. 07–Dec. 09 Aug. 08–Dec. 09
Alerts Outbreaks Alerts Outbreaks Alerts Outbreaks Alerts Outbreaks Alerts Outbreaks
No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. % No. %
Acute flaccid paralysis 102 0 73 1 7 0 16 1 198 14.47 2 1.06
Acute jaundice
syndrome 142 16 40 0 0 0 4 0 186 13.59 16 8.55
Acute respiratory
infection 17 1 6 1 0 0 0 0 23 1.68 2 1.06
Acute watery
diarrhoea 122 33 66 13 13 9 60 30 261 19.07 85 45.45
Bloody diarrhoea 42 3 15 0 2 0 5 3 64 4.67 6 3.20
Crimean-Congo
haemorrhagic fever 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 6 0.43 1 0.53
Dengue
haemorrhagic fever 20 3 24 13 0 0 11 5 55 4.02 21 11.22
Unexplained fever 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.21 0 0
Malaria 24 1 5 1 3 0 3 0 35 2.55 2 1.06
Measles 199 26 31 2 11 1 25 4 266 19.44 33 17.64
Meningitis 101 1 51 0 0 0 1 0 153 11.18 1 0.53
Tetanus 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.29 0 0
Neonatal tetanus 5 0 61 0 1 0 1 0 68 4.97 0 0
Others 14 7 3 3 0 0 29 8 46 3.36 18 9.62
Total 798 91 376 34 37 10 157 52 1368 100 187 100
PAK = Pakistan Administered Kashmir; IDP = internally displaced persons.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a declining mea- Discussion The close collaboration of the Min-
sles trend was observed, though this was istry of Health and health cluster part-
not significant. Communicable diseases are of major ners in DEWS implementation ensured
During the four-year surveillance in public health concern in Pakistan, its acceptability, technical soundness
all disaster-affected areas, no significant with yearly outbreaks of waterborne, and practical viability [17]. Alerts and
decline was observed in the number vector-borne and vaccine-preventable outbreaks for priority diseases were
diseases that worsen during emergen- frequently detected and controlled ef-
of outbreaks or case-load of dengue
cies [1,10,17]. The prompt establish- fectively, including those encountered
fever, or change in the seasonality of
ment of DEWS immediately after the but not officially recognized as DEWS-
the disease occurrence. In the 2005
October 2005 earthquake led to the notifiable diseases, e.g. avian influenza,
earthquake-affected area, acute jaun-
influenza H1N1 and leishmaniasis. As
dice syndrome cases dropped gradually early detection of potential outbreaks
reported from previous humanitarian
and significantly over the subsequent and prompted rapid control interven-
interventions elsewhere, the majority of
years as compared with the first post- tions that prevented a large number of
outbreaks in Pakistan were encountered
earthquake year (OR = 0.18; 95% CI: alerts evolving into full-blown disease at the outset of the emergencies [1].
0.11–0.30). In the 2005 post-earthquake outbreaks, mitigating the risk among The successful implementation of the
period, there were nine acute jaundice this vulnerable population. Drawing DEWS network in subsequent emer-
syndrome outbreaks in 2006, followed experience from this successful lesson, gencies was substantiated by the merit
by three and two outbreaks in 2007 and the DEWS surveillance network was of its operational feasibility, effective
2008, respectively, while no outbreaks replicated in subsequent emergencies disease-control impact, acceptability to
were detected in 2009. in Pakistan. the health cluster partners and generous
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15
Setting priorities for disease surveillance
10 and risk assessment during humanitar-
5 ian emergencies therefore required a
0 careful consideration of the potential
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
interaction of all three factors consistent
2006 2007 2008 2009 with the specific geographical context
and prevailing epidemiological vulner-
ability of the population [16,19].
Measles The declining rate of measles over
200
time was partly attributed to the vac-
150 cination campaigns carried out in the
No. of cases
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these diseases to spread. Undoubt- 2%, respectively, illustrating the capac- detection and control of communica-
edly, lack of clean water is the most ity of the system to control epidemics. ble disease outbreaks and for averting
obvious risk of infection and disease To sustain the technical role of DEWS, avoidable morbidity and mortality in
outbreak. The latter was related to the trained human resources, the necessary the disaster-affected populations. The
use of unprotected water sources or infrastructure and strong analytical and DEWS initiative can be organized with-
unhygienic vessels for the transporta- response backup support capacities, in a week and implemented effectively
tion and storage of water at homes including laboratory diagnostics, need in all disaster-affected areas, despite the
and to the intermittent piped water to be ensured. The mobilization of these initial lack of accurate population data,
distribution system that posed high risk operational capacities was the key as- limited communication network for
of sewage contamination in most of set that led to the remarkable preven- data collection, scarcity of reliable labo-
the affected towns [5,20]. To monitor tion and control of epidemics during ratory services, absence of prior logistic
water quality, field water testing kits emergency response interventions in arrangements for the timely dispatch of
were introduced to isolate the source Pakistan. The DEWS technology was samples to a reference laboratory and
of contamination and implement further developed by introducing a the early coordination challenge with
the necessary control interventions. new software package with automated health partners. The latter substantiates
Health and hygiene promotion was surveillance bulletins, alert notification the robustness, reliability and effective-
also carried out through behaviour- and disease-trend plotting, facilitating ness of this system, in an environment
change communication interventions the work of surveillance officers and en- where health services are disrupted,
alongside improvements in the water hancing their ability to detect potential their capacities overwhelmed and where
supply infrastructure. outbreaks the prevention of epidemics becomes
The successful implementation of A major contribution of DEWS both a life-saving entity as well as a cop-
DEWS was helped by the cooperation was the concurrent capacity building ing necessity for the health system by
between health cluster partners and the of local human resources, where district lowering the burden of disease. DEWS
national and provincial health system. teams were trained on disease surveil- has become an effective, tested strategy
Confidence in the system has contribut- lance, alert/outbreak investigation and for the control of communicable dis-
ed to DEWS’ active case finding, prompt response. This process has enabled the ease outbreaks and epidemics during
reporting ability, close analysis of disease district health system to sustain DEWS emergencies. The interest shown by the
trends and early mitigation and outbreak surveillance, epidemic detection and health management teams to sustain
control. In the first post-earthquake year, control capacity beyond the disaster DEWS in the post-emergency period
10% of the 336 reported alerts were re- period. was also supported by WHO to make
ceived late, while the delayed alerts in Sensitive disease-surveillance sys- it an integral component of the district
the second and third years were 6% and tems are absolutely essential for the health system capacity development.
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