Electric Power Systems Research 214 (2023) 108797

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Electric Power Systems Research

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/epsr

Stopping criterion for Monte Carlo method-based simulations of the

lightning performance of transmission lines
Frederico S. Almeida *, Fernando H. Silveira , Silvério Visacro
LRC – Lightning Research Center; UFMG – Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: A stopping criterion to be applied on Monte Carlo-based computational simulations of the lightning performance
Backflashover of transmission lines in terms of backflashover is proposed. Considering typical 138 kV and 230 kV transmission
Lightning performance of transmission lines lines as case studies and the application of an elaborated probabilistic calculation approach, the influence of the
Monte Carlo method
number of iterations of the Monte Carlo simulation on the calculated critical current, backflashover probability,
error of the distribution and the dispersion coefficient is assessed. The obtained results leaded to the proposed
stopping criterion that establishes limits for the error (5%) and the dispersion coefficient (0.35). Its application
yields consistent results with the decrease on the number of required iterations up to 95% and higher than 90%
for simulations related to the 230 kV and 138 kV TLs, respectively, when compared to simulations of reference
with 20000 iterations.

1. Introduction shielding failure and backflashover, are estimated by Monte Carlo-based

The calculation of the lightning outage rate of transmission lines
(TLs) is a relevant procedure in electrical engineering that allows
obtaining the diagnosis of the line in terms of its lightning performance
and may indicate the need of applying protective measures to guarantee
an expected outage rate. Such calculation procedure considers the
events of backflashover and shielding failure to compose the resulting
outage rate per 100 km of the line per year. For TLs installed over soils
with high and moderate resistivity, backflashover prevails [1,2].
Due to the large number of parameters capable to influence the
lightning performance of TLs, such as parameters related to the
configuration of transmission lines, to the environment that surrounds
them, and to the lightning return stroke current, the development of
extensive computer simulations to determine the resulting outage rate of
the line is required [3–5]. Furthermore, since some of these parameters
present a random nature, probabilistic calculation approaches consid­
ering the application of the Monte Carlo method [6–13] are assumed to
assess the lightning performance of TLs. In a Monte Carlo method
simulation, the parameters are randomly selected according with their
probability distribution functions for each iteration of a set of simula­
tions. After a sufficient number of simulated iterations, the final result is
obtained.
In [6–8], flashover rates of 400 kV and 150 kV TLs, considering both
simulations assuming lightning current parameters, stroke location,
phase voltage, TL insulation level and distribution of tower-footing
grounding impedance as random parameters. Such works assume the
number of iterations per simulation of the Monte Carlo method varying
from a few tens of thousands to 108 iterations. Focusing only on the
calculation of the backflashover rate of TLs, the Monte Carlo method is
applied in [9–13] for TLs of voltage level up to 400 kV, considering
lightning current peak and rise time as random parameters. Such
application involves up to 2,000,000 iterations per Monte Carlo
simulation.
One aspect that deserves attention concerns the computational
burden involved in the application of Monte Carlo method. The pro­
cessing time and memory required in simulations may significantly in­
crease due to the need of either representing all the possible
combinations between the random simulated parameters [8] or even
considering a large number of iterations that would ensure the quality of
the final result [7,9–12]. Such aspects can make the application of the
method prohibitive. In this context, the establishment of a stopping
criterion to guarantee the commitment between the number of simu­
lated iterations and the quality of the obtained results would be useful in
Monte Carlo-based computational simulations.
A stopping criterion is not clearly assumed in evaluations of the
lightning performance of transmission lines such as those developed in

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: fredericoalmeida@ufmg.br (F.S. Almeida).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2022.108797
Received 24 July 2022; Received in revised form 26 August 2022; Accepted 6 September 2022
Available online 18 September 2022
0378-7796/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
F.S. Almeida et al.
[7,9–12]. The analyses usually consider a large number of simulated
iterations that certainly would lead to both the convergence of the
Monte Carlo method and correct results. Some works indicate the use of
criteria based on the error of the probability distribution of the random
parameters [6], on the dispersion of the results [14] and even on a fixed
threshold of the relative mismatch between consecutive results of
backflashover probability [13].
This work aims to contribute to this topic, proposing a stopping
criterion to be considered in Monte Carlo-based simulations of the
lightning performance of transmission lines in terms of backflashover.
To achieve this purpose, systematic computational simulations using a
probabilistic calculation approach [15] were developed to calculate
critical currents and backflashover probabilities of 138 kV and 230 kV
TLs for a wide range of tower-footing grounding impedances. The in­
fluence of the number of simulated iterations on the obtained results
were assessed, focusing on the behavior of two statistical parameters,
that are, the error of the probability distribution and the dispersion
coefficient. The proposed stopping criterion considers the definition of
intervals for both parameters aiming to decrease the number of the
simulated iterations demanded to achieve feasible results.
2. Monte Carlo method applied to the assessment of the
lightning performance of transmission lines
The Monte Carlo method is applied to problems that involve a set of
random variables represented by X = {X1, X2, X3, ..., Xn}. The final result
of the problem F(X) is a function of the variables of X, which are
randomly selected according with each respective probability distribu­
tion. For each iteration of the simulation, the final result F(X) is calcu­
lated. The Monte Carlo method runs until the obtained results converge
to the expected one. The number of iterations must be large enough to
ensure a small variance of F(X) and the correct representation of the
probability distribution of the random variables. Details of the Monte
Carlo method applied to lightning performance assessments are pre­
sented in [12].
Two statistical parameters are relevant in Monte Carlo-based simu­
lations: the error of the probability distribution and the dispersion co­
efficient. They are presented as follows.
2.1. Error of the probability distribution ξ
The error of the probability distribution, identified here by ξ, gives a
measure of the percentage difference between the theoretical proba­
bility distribution of a variable and its estimation according to the
randomly selected values.
The influence of the number of samples resulted from the random
selection on the error ξ between the theoretical and estimated values of a
(a)
Fig. 1. Comparison between the theoretical curve of the CIGRE two-slope cumulative probability distribution (solid line) and its estimation according to the samples
defined by draw (dashed line): 100 (a) and 1000 (b) samples.
2
Electric Power Systems Research 214 (2023) 108797
given variable in a Monte Carlo simulation is shown in Fig. 1 that
compares the theoretical curve of the CIGRE two-slope [16] cumulative
probability distribution of first return strokes peak currents (theoretical
values – curve insolid line) and the estimated curve considering
randomly selected values in the Monte Carlo simulation (sampled values
- curve in dashed line) for 100 and 1000 samples.
As can be noted, the estimated curve differs from the theoretical
when only 100 samples are assumed. However, when the number of
samples is increased to 1000, ξ decreases, resulting on an estimated
curve almost equal to the theoretical one.
This behavior might indicate the error of the probability distribution
ξ as a possible stopping criterion to be considered on Monte Carlo
method simulation, as it was adopted in [6].
2.2. The dispersion coefficient β
The dispersion coefficient β indicates the convergence of the Monte
Carlo method simulation [17]. It is defined as the ratio of the standard
deviation of the outcome F(X), σ, and its mean value F(X) as shown in
Eq. (1).
σ
β= (1)
F(X)
Fig. 2 shows the calculated backflashover probability of a 230 kV
transmission line with tower-footing grounding impedance of 10 Ω, as
function of the number of iterations. All the presented results assume an
error of the probability distribution ξ of 5%.
The dispersion coefficient β calculated for the simulated case shown
in Fig. 2 is of 0.40, 0.35, and 0.26 for 7500, 15000 and 30000 iterations,
respectively, indicating the decrease of the values of β with the increase
of the number of simulated iterations. Also, the observed variance of the
result for 30000 iterations is smaller, indicating the convergence of the
simulation.
It is worth noting that, even assuming the same specified error, the
obtained results vary with the number of simulated iterations. For 7500,
15000 and 30000 iterations, the calculated probability of backflashover
is of 0.1867%, 0.2000%, and 0.1800%, respectively. So, considering
only the value ξ as a stopping criterion may not be enough to guarantee
the small variance of the result F(X).
3. Developments
3.1. Introduction
The analyses of this work are based on results obtained from the
development of systematic computational simulations of the lightning
(b)
F.S. Almeida et al.
Fig. 2. Results of backflashover probability of a 230 kV transmission line with
tower-footing grounding impedance of 10 Ω obtained by a Monte Carlo simu­
lation, considering different number of iterations and an error of 5%. Number of
iterations: 7500 (a) 15000 (b) and 30000 (c).
performance of 138 kV and 230 kV transmission lines, in terms of the
probability of backflashover.
The probabilistic approach ATP-DE-MC [15] were assumed in the
developments of the work. It considers the Alternative Transient Pro­
gram (ATP) [18] to calculate lightning overvoltages across line insulator
strings due to the simulation of a lightning direct strike to the top of the
towers. The Disruptive Effect (DE) method is assumed as the flashover
criterion with constants proposed in [19]. The Monte Carlo (MC)
method is adopted to randomly select the simulated lightning peak
current.
The behavior of the statistical parameters resulted from the Monte
Carlo method simulation, that are the error of the probability
3
Electric Power Systems Research 214 (2023) 108797
distribution and the dispersion coefficient, in the assessment of back­
flashover occurrence for different conditions of tower-footing grounding
impedance (ZP) are evaluated, as function of the number of simulated
iterations. The obtained results allow proposing a stopping criterion for
Monte Carlo method simulations applied on evaluations of the lightning
performance of transmission lines.
3.2. Simulated conditions: transmission line modeling and lightning
current parameters
Typical transmission line configurations of 138 kV and 230 kV
voltage levels are considered in the analyses. The corresponding critical
flashover overvoltages (CFO) of such lines are of 650 kV and 1200 kV,
respectively. Fig. 3 illustrates the simplified representations of the
configurations of the self-sustained towers with the respective di­
mensions. The 138 kV TL has a single shield wire and a vertical
arrangement of phases. The 230 kV TL has two shield wires and a hor­
izontal arrangement of phases. A 400 m span length for both TLs is
assumed.
The overvoltage developed across line insulator strings due to direct
lightning strikes to the top of transmission line towers were calculated
by the Alternative Transient Program (ATP) [18]. The models of the
transmission line components considered in ATP were validated by
using simulated results from the Hybrid Electromagnetic model (HEM)
[20].
In simulations, shield wires and phase conductors were represented
by the JMarti model [21]. Towers modeling assumed the formulation
given by the extended Jordan model [22–24], that assumes the tower
divided into sections represented by a single-phase lossless transmission
line. The surge impedance of each section considers the self and mutual
impedances of the vertical conductors of the correspondent section, as
detailed in [24].
The tower-footing electrodes were represented as concentrated
impedance whose value is equal to first-return-stroke grounding impulse
impedance (ZP). This representation leads to results of backflashover
probability almost identical to the ones obtained by the physical rep­
resentation of the electrodes in electromagnetic models [25]. The
developed simulations consider ZP varying in the 10–80 Ω range.
Simulations assumed a current source at tower top to inject the
lightning current represented by triangular waveform with front time
and time to the half peak of 3.8 µs and 75 µs, respectively. Such values
correspond to median values of first return stroke currents measured at
Mount San Salvatore station [16].
The estimation of the critical current that leads line insulators to
backflashover assumed the Disruptive Effect (DE) method as the flash­
over criterion. Such method is traditionally adopted for non-standard
voltage waveforms, and it is based on the integration of the resulting
overvoltage across TL insulator strings during a time interval in which
the instantaneous voltage is higher than a threshold voltage V0. If the
result of the integration equals a base value DEb, flashover occurs [19].
3.3. Simulation procedure
Fig. 4 illustrates the flowchart of the application of the ATP-DE-MC
probabilistic approach assumed in this work to assess the probability
of backflashover occurrence.
The Monte Carlo method is implemented in the MATLAB environ­
ment and interfaced with ATP. In MATLAB, lightning peak current is
randomly selected, following the CIGRE two-slope cumulative proba­
bility distribution [16]. In ATP, the selected peak current is assumed on
the simulation of the lightning overvoltage across TL insulator strings
and the DE method is considered to assess backflashover occurrence.
This outcome is used by MATLAB to register the critical current IC, that is
defined as the lowest value of those peak currents that lead to back­
flashover, and to calculate the probability of backflashover, that consists
in the percentage of IC to be exceeded for a sufficient large number of
F.S. Almeida et al. Electric Power Systems Research 214 (2023) 108797

Fig. 3. Rough view of the simulated 138 kV (a) and 230 kV (b) transmission lines.

Fig. 4. ATP-DE-MC simulation flowchart. Input data, MATLAB and ATP environments, and output file description.

simulated iterations.

3.4. Evaluated parameters

Two sets of results are presented in this work, comprising lightning

performance parameters and statistical parameters related to the Monte
Carlo method. Lightning performance parameters include the critical
current (IC) and the backflashover probability, defined as the percentage
of the simulated events that result on backflashover. Monte Carlo
method parameters consider the error in relation to the probability
distribution of peak currents ξ, and the dispersion coefficient β.
In this work, the error in relation to the cumulative probability dis­
tribution of first return stroke currents is defined as the maximum per­
centage difference between the theoretical and estimated values among
the points that correspond to the 5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 90% and
95% values, ξ(5%–95%), of the cumulative probability distribution that
Fig. 5. Highlight of the points in the CIGRE two-slope cumulative peak current
are indicated by the black dots of Fig. 5. Such proposal aims to distribute
distribution considered for the calculation of the error ξ. ξ(5%–95%) repre­
appropriately the randomly selected lightning peak currents along the
sented by the black dots and ξ(P(I ≥ IC)) by the empty circle.
whole extension of the cumulative peak current distribution.

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F.S. Almeida et al. Electric Power Systems Research 214 (2023) 108797

The error related to the point of the cumulative probability curve Table 2
that corresponds to the resulting backflashover probability P(I ≥ IC) is Critical current, backflashover probability, error of probability distribution,
also considered. It is represented as ξ(P(I ≥ IC)). The corresponding ξ(5%–95%) % and ξ(P(I ≥ IC)), and dispersion coefficient β as function of the
point, indicated in Fig. 5 by an empty circle, varies along the cumulative number of iterations – 230 kV transmission line.
probability curve according to the simulated case. Such error is calcu­ ZP(Ω) Number of IC (kA) P(I ≥ IC) ξ(5%– ξ(P(I ≥ β
lated as the difference between the value given by the theoretical iterations (%) 95%) (%) IC)) (%)
formulation (from the application of the calculated IC on the CIGRE two- 10 1000 219.04 0.10 20.00 8.19 1.27
slope distribution) and the percentage of events that leads to the back­ 2000 212.64 0.10 4.00 8.25 0.74
flashover occurrence. The consideration of this point to assess the error 5000 212.64 0.10 5.60 8.25 0.42
10000 191.50 0.18 5.40 6.12 0.39
is relevant since it is responsible to indicate directly the backflashover 20000 191.50 0.19 2.60 0.90 0.32
probability under calculation. 20 1000 132.70 0.90 20.00 19.28 0.48
The dispersion coefficient β is calculated according to Eq. (1), 2000 132.70 0.75 4.00 32.73 0.48
considering the standard deviation between the backflashover proba­ 5000 131.08 0.94 5.60 20.06 0.39
10000 130.14 1.14 5.40 6.02 0.27
bilities calculated in each simulated iteration and their median values.
20000 130.14 1.17 2.60 3.55 0.19
40 1000 82.86 7.50 20.00 13.73 0.33
4. Results and analysis 2000 82.54 6.35 4.00 4.87 0.23
5000 82.54 6.34 5.60 5.02 0.19
10000 82.54 6.45 5.40 3.37 0.15
4.1. Introduction
20000 82.54 6.46 2.60 3.22 0.11
80 1000 53.59 21.06 20.00 0.07 0.24
First, aiming to identify the influence of the number of iterations on 2000 53.59 20.80 4.00 3.63 0.20
the resulting IC, P(I ≥ IC), ξ and β, Monte Carlo simulations were 5000 53.52 21.34 5.60 1.41 0.14
10000 53.52 21.71 5.40 0.30 0.10
developed for 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000 and 20000 iterations.
20000 53.51 21.57 2.60 0.39 0.07
Following, based on the obtained results, acceptable values of the error
of the probability distribution ξ and of the dispersion coefficient β are
proposed in order to establish a stopping criterion to Monte Carlo-based The results indicated that the calculated values of IC and P(I ≥ IC) for
simulations that ensures obtaining reliable results, maintaining the a given value of tower-footing grounding impedance vary according to
commitment between the reasonable number of simulated iterations the number of simulated iterations. Furthermore, the number of simu­
and the convergence of the results. The consideration of TLs with lated iterations needed to stabilize the results is larger for those cases
distinct voltage levels and the variation of tower-footing grounding with higher values of critical current IC. Achieving this point of stabili­
impedance allow evaluating the influence of such conditions in the zation guarantees that the obtained result converged for the expected
applicability of the proposed stopping criterion. one.
Also, the percentage variation between the calculated values of
backflashover probability in the range of 1000–20000 simulated itera­
4.2. Discussion of the results
tions diminish with increasing values of tower-footing grounding
impedance ZP, and, consequently, for decreasing values of critical cur­
Tables 1 and 2 summarize the obtained results in terms of lightning
rent IC. For the 138 kV TL, the variation between the backflashover
performance parameters (critical current (IC) and backflashover proba­
probability calculated for 1000 and 20000 simulated iterations is of
bility) and statistical parameters resulted from the Monte Carlo simu­
18.4%, 4.3%, 1.9%, and 1.1%, for ZP values of 10, 20, 40, and 80 Ω,
lation (error of the probability distribution of peak currents ξ and
respectively. For the 230 kV TL, this variation is of 90%, 30%, 13.9%,
dispersion coefficient β) estimated for 138 kV and 230 kV transmission
and 2.4%, respectively.
lines, respectively, as function of the number of simulated iterations, for
The results also showed that the error of the probability distribution
tower-footing grounding impedance in the 10–80-Ω range.
for the points corresponding to 5%–95% of the cumulative probability
distribution of the lightning peak current ξ(5%–95%) does not depend
Table 1 on the value of the critical current IC, but depends on the number of
Critical current, backflashover probability, error of probability distribution,
simulated iterations. The increase on the number of simulated iterations
ξ(5%–95%) % and ξ(P(I ≥ IC)), and dispersion coefficient β as function of the
from 1000 to 20000 promoted the decrease of the calculated error from
number of iterations – 138 kV transmission line.
20% to 2.6%.
ZP(Ω) Number of IC P(I≥IC) ξ(5%-to- ξ(P(I≥IC)) β A similar behavior is observed for the error of the probability dis­
iterations (kA) (%) 95%) (%) (%)
tribution in the point that corresponds to the backflashover probability
10 1000 86.25 6.90 20.00 19.25 0.17 ξ(P(I ≥ IC)). It also depends on the set of simulated lightning peak cur­
2000 86.11 5.80 4.00 0.27 0.17
rents, and it tends to decrease as the number of simulated iterations
5000 86.11 5.62 5.60 3.36 0.15
10000 86.11 5.61 5.40 3.54 0.12 increases. However, this error depends on the value of the critical cur­
20000 86.06 5.63 2.60 3.30 0.09 rent IC, being greater for cases of high IC.
20 1000 51.06 25.10 20.00 4.63 0.16 The results also reveal that the lightning performance parameters do
2000 50.94 23.45 4.00 2.77 0.14 not vary significantly for a certain number of simulated iterations that
5000 50.88 23.90 5.60 1.15 0.10
10000 50.88 24.31 5.40 0.54 0.07
corresponds to low values of β. As shown in Tables 1 and 2, the value of β
20000 50.88 24.02 2.60 0.63 0.05 depends on the number of simulated iterations, being lower for simu­
40 1000 30.42 57.01 20.00 2.05 0.04 lations with 20000 iterations, and on the value of the critical current IC,
2000 30.42 56.90 4.00 1.69 0.03 being greater for cases of high IC. Considering the 138 kV TL, increasing
5000 30.40 55.92 5.60 0.11 0.02
the number of iterations from 1000 to 20000 resulted on the decrease of
10000 30.40 56.12 5.40 0.25 0.02
20000 30.40 55.94 2.60 0.09 0.01 β from 0.17 to 0.09, 0.16 to 0.05, 0.04 to 0.01, and 0.02 to 0.01, for ZP
80 1000 19.09 82.10 20.00 1.46 0.02 values of 10, 20, 40, and 80 Ω, respectively. The decrease of β related to
2000 19.09 81.60 4.00 0.84 0.02 the 230 kV TL is from 1.27 to 0.32, 0.48 to 0.19, 0.33 to 0.11, and 0.24 to
5000 19.09 81.38 5.60 0.57 0.01 0.07, respectively.
10000 19.09 81.41 5.40 0.61 0.01
20000 19.09 81.19 2.60 0.33 0.01

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F.S. Almeida et al. Electric Power Systems Research 214 (2023) 108797

5. The proposal of a stopping criterion Table 4

Application of the stopping criterion (ξ ≤ 5% and dispersion coefficient β) to
The discussion of the behaviors of the error of the probability dis­ evaluate the lightning performance of 230 kV transmission line.
tribution ξ and of the dispersion coefficient β presented in Section 4.2 β ZP 1st set 2nd set
gives elements to elaborate a stopping criterion for Monte Carlo-based (Ω) Number IC (kA) P(I ≥ Number IC (kA) P(I ≥
simulations of the lightning performance of TLs in terms of backflash­ of IC) % of IC) %
iterations iterations
over. The proposal here presented considers the establishment of
acceptable limits for each parameter. ≤0.30 10 22262 191.50 0.19 35000 191.83 0.21
20 10507 130.14 1.16 14202 130.01 1.16
The value to be assumed for the error in the probability distribution ξ
40 1600 82.54 6.63 1145 82.62 6.99
depends on the rigorousness of the user. In this work, a limit of 5% for 80 1600 53.59 20.81 953 53.62 21.30
the error of the considered points of the cumulative probability distri­ ≤0.35 10 15701 191.50 0.20 19841 191.83 0.18
bution, ξ(5%–95%) and ξ(P(I ≥ IC)), is proposed. 20 9205 130.14 1.16 10620 130.01 1.16
The value to be assumed for the dispersion coefficient β have to 40 1600 82.54 6.63 1002 82.62 6.99
80 1600 53.59 20.81 953 53.62 21.30
guarantee the convergence and stability of the results. According to the
≤0.40 10 7613 212.64 0.11 7841 191.83 0.15
results presented in Tables 1 and 2, values of β up to 0.30–0.40 can 20 6136 131.08 1.07 6354 130.21 1.10
provide the required convergence for all simulated cases. 40 1600 82.54 6.63 1002 82.62 6.99
In this context, Monte Carlo-based simulations of the probability of 80 1600 53.59 20.81 953 53.62 21.30
backflashover of 138 kV and 230 kV TLs were developed assuming the
error ξ of 5% and different upper limits for the values of β (β ≤ 0.30, β ≤
0.35, and β ≤ 0.40) as the stopping criterion to be tested. The obtained Table 5
results are summarized in Tables 3 and 4. Two sets of lightning peak Number of iterations required by the application of the proposed stopping cri­
current randomly selected are considered in order to demonstrate the terion (ξ ≤ 5% and β ≤ 0.35) to assess the backflashover occurrence of 138 kV
generality of the results. and 230 kV TLs.
The analysis of β revealed that the variation of its upper limit in the TL ZP 1st set 2nd set
0.30–0.40 range did not affect the number of simulated iterations for (Ω) Number of Decrease Number of Decrease
those cases that correspond to values of critical current IC up to 86 kA, iterations (%)* iterations (%)*

covering the entire simulated tower-footing impedance range for the 138 10 1638 91.8% 1906 90.5%
138 kV TL and cases of ZP of 40 Ω and 80 Ω for the 230 kV TL. It occurs kV 20 1600 92% 953 95%
40 1600 92% 953 95%
because the values of β are already lower than those established by the
80 1600 92% 953 95%
stopping criterion when the error ξ ≤ 5% is set. 230 10 15701 21.5% 19841 0.8%
For cases with critical currents higher than 100 kA, related to ZP of kV 20 9205 54% 10620 46.9%
10 Ω and 20 Ω for the 230 kV TL, Table 4 shows that the results of IC and 40 1600 92% 1002 95%
backflashover probability vary significantly when assuming β ≤ 0.40, 80 1600 92% 953 95%

indicating that the convergence has not been achieved yet. However, for *Percentage decrease in relation to 20000 iterations
values of β ≤ 0.35 and β ≤ 0.30, it is shown that the results do not vary,
indicating the convergence. Since the cases corresponding to β ≤ 0.35 footing impedance range for the 230 kV TL. The obtained decrease is
required less simulated iterations to lead to the same results provided by even higher for the 138 kV TL: greater than 90% for the entire tower-
β ≤ 0.30, the former is preferable adopted as the stopping criterion. footing impedance range considered in this work for both sets of light­
The comparison between the critical current IC and probability of ning peak currents. The application of the proposed stopping criterion is
backflashover calculated assuming the stopping criterion with error ξ ≤ especially relevant for those cases with lower critical current, promoting
5% and β ≤ 0.35 (indicated in Tables 3 and 4) and those presented in a huge decrease on the number of required simulated iterations.
Tables 1 and 2 for 20000 iterations indicates very close results, Fig. 6 illustrates the effect of considering the stopping criterion (ξ ≤
corroborating the quality of the proposed stopping criterion to lead to 5% and β ≤ 0.35) for assessing the probability of backflashover of the
consistent results with less simulated iterations. Table 5 shows that the 138 kV and 230 kV TLs related to the lowest and highest critical currents
application of this criterion leads to decreases of 21%–92% and 0.8%– (ZP of 80 Ω and 10 Ω, respectively).
95% on the number of simulated iterations for the first and second set of The results indicated that, after the determination of the probability
lightning peak currents, respectively, considering the 10–80-Ω tower- of backflashover according with the proposed stopping criterion (black
dots), a larger number of iterations practically does not influence the
calculated results, indicating the convergence of the method.
Table 3
Application of the stopping criterion (ξ ≤ 5% and dispersion coefficient β) to
6. Conclusions
evaluate the lightning performance of 138 kV transmission line.
ZP 1st set 2nd set
β
This work proposes a stopping criterion to be considered in Monte
(Ω) Number of IC P(I ≥ Number of IC P(I ≥
iterations (kA) IC) iterations (kA) IC)
Carlo-based simulations of the lightning performance of transmission
(%) (%) lines in terms of backflashover. The proposed criterion aims to reduce
the computational burden involved in the application of Monte Carlo
≤0.30 10 1638 86.11 6.11 1906 86.20 6.09
20 1600 50.97 23.81 953 50.98 23.40 method but maintaining the accuracy of the obtained results.
40 1600 30.42 56.88 953 30.41 55.51 Considering the application of the probabilistic calculation approach
80 1600 19.09 81.91 953 19.13 80.90 ATP-DE-MC, systematic computational simulations were developed to
10 1638 86.11 6.11 1906 86.20 6.09
≤0.35
determine the critical current and the probability of backflashover of
20 1600 50.97 23.81 953 50.98 23.40
40 1600 30.42 56.88 953 30.41 55.51
138 kV and 230 kV transmission lines as function of tower-footing
80 1600 19.09 81.91 953 19.13 80.90 grounding impedance ZP. The number of simulated iterations was var­
≤0.40 10 1638 86.11 6.11 953 86.20 5.88 ied in order to assess its influence on the obtained results. Also, the
20 1600 50.97 23.81 953 50.98 23.40 behavior of the error of the probability distribution ξ and the dispersion
40 1600 30.42 56.88 953 30.41 55.51
coefficient β was assessed for each simulation condition, aiming to
80 1600 19.09 81.91 953 19.13 80.80

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F.S. Almeida et al.
Fig. 6. Results of backflashover probability obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation, considering the application of the stopping criterion (ξ ≤ 5% and β ≤ 0.35). (a)
138 kV TL, (b) 230 kV TL. Left column: condition of lowest critical current (ZP of 80 Ω). Right column: condition of highest critical current (ZP of 10 Ω). Black dots
indicate the backflashover probability (and corresponding iteration) related to the achievement of the stopping criterion.
provide elements to the proposal of the stopping criterion.
The results indicated, for a given tower-footing impedance, the
dependence of the final result of critical current and backflashover
probability with the number of simulated iterations. Moreover, it was
shown the increase on the number of simulated iterations required to
lead to the convergence of the results for those cases related to higher
critical currents, such as transmission lines with higher insulation level
and lower tower-footing grounding impedance. This behavior is shown
when analyzing the percentage variation between the calculated values
of backflashover probability, for a given ZP, in the range of 1000–20000
simulated iterations. This variation is larger for lower values of ZP. For
the 138 kV TL, the variation between the calculated backflashover
probability values for 1000 and 20000 simulated iterations is of 18.4%
for ZP of 10 Ω, and decreases to 1.1% for ZP of 80 Ω. Considering the 230
kV TL, the corresponding variation is from 90% for ZP of 10 Ω to 2.4%
for ZP of 80 Ω.
The analyses also revealed both the error of the probability distri­
bution and the dispersion coefficient decreasing for increasing number
of simulated iterations. However, the error for the point of the cumu­
lative distribution that corresponds to the critical current and the
dispersion coefficient also depend on the value of the critical current,
both presenting higher values for cases of higher critical currents.
Specifically, the behavior of the dispersion coefficient indicated that
its variation in the 0.30–0.40 range did not change the number of
simulated iterations for those cases that correspond to values of critical
current IC up to 86 kA which is related to ZP of 10 Ω and higher for the
138 kV TL and for ZP of 40 Ω and higher for the 230 kV TL. On the other
hand, for critical currents higher than 100 kA, it was shown that
dispersion coefficients up to 0.30–0.35 guarantees the convergence of
7
Electric Power Systems Research 214 (2023) 108797
the results. Since the cases corresponding to β ≤ 0.35 required less
simulated iterations, it was proposed as a stopping criterion along with
considering the error ξ equal or lower than 5%.
The application of the proposed stopping criterion leaded to relevant
decrease on the number of required iterations, especially for those cases
with lower critical current, that are the cases that affect more the
lightning performance of transmission lines. Decreases on the number of
iterations up to 95%, for the 230 kV TL, and greater than 90%, for the
138 kV TL, when compared to the simulations with 20000 iterations,
were shown, indicating the consistency of the criterion to decrease the
number of required iterations along with maintaining the top-quality
results provided by Monte-Carlo based simulations.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Frederico S. Almeida: Conceptualization, Software, Validation,
Formal analysis, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing,
Visualization. Fernando H. Silveira: Conceptualization, Methodology,
Validation, Formal analysis, Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
editing, Supervision. Silvério Visacro: Conceptualization, Supervision,
Writing – review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
F.S. Almeida et al.
Data Availability
No data was used for the research described in the article.
Acknowledgments
Frederico S. Almeida, Fernando H. Silveira and Silverio Visacro
would like to thank the Brazilian Agency CAPES and the National
Council for Scientific and Technological Development–CNPq for their
support and grants 88887.627303/2021-00, 308988/2021-3 and
307381/2019-6, respectively.
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