Tháng Số lượng sản phẩm sản xuất Chi phí sản xuất y = ax +b

x y
1 1,260 123,118
2 1,007 99,601
3 1,296 132,000
4 873 80,000
5 532 52,000
6 476 58,625
7 482 74,624
8 1,273 110,000
9 692 81,000
10 690 73,507 CP SX = 64.629*SLSPX +37894
11 564 95,024 Có 69 trường hợp bị tác động bởi số lượng sản
12 470 88,004
13 675 70,000
14 870 110,253
15 1,100 $ 108,589.90 1,296
470
Phạm vi sai số 13771.8531495498

Độ tin cậy
CP SX Max $ 122,361.75
68%
CP SX Min $ 94,818.05

CP SX Max $ 136,133.61
95%
CP SX Min $ 81,046.19
 y
140,000
120,000
f(x) = 64.268697310303 x + 37894.0955726442
100,000 R² = 0.688202840563914
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
- 500 1,000 1,500

tác động bởi số lượng sản phẩm sản xuất

 Tháng Số lượng sản phẩm sản xuất Chi phí sản xuất
1 1,260 123,118 140,000
Chi
2 1,007 99,601 120,000
3 1,296 132,000
4 873 80,000 100,000
5 532 52,000
6 476 58,625 80,000

7 482 74,624
60,000
8 1,273 110,000
9 692 81,000 40,000
10 690 73,507
11 564 95,024 20,000
12 470 88,004
-
13 675 70,000 400 500 600 700
14 870 110,253
15 1,100 108,589.66
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8295799181296
R Square 0.688202840563914
Adjusted R 0.66221974394424
Standard Er 13771.8531495498
Observatio 14

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 5023545253.3554 5023545253 26.48656 0.00024238062
Residual 12 2275967270.0732 189663939
Total 13 7299512523.4286

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 37894.0955726442 10613.249227968 3.570451872 0.0038492 14769.8119903
Số lượng s 64.268697310303 12.487822606705 5.14650947 0.0002424 37.0600692002
0.05

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Chi phí sản xuất Residuals

1 118872.654183626 4245.3458163741 0
2 102612.673764119 -3011.673764119
3 121186.327286797 10813.672713203
4 94000.6683245387 -14000.66832454
5 72085.0425417254 -20085.04254173
6 68485.9954923484 -9860.995492348
 7 68871.6076762102 5752.3923237898
8 119708.14724866 -9708.14724866
9 82368.0341113739 -1368.034111374
10 82239.4967167532 -8732.496716753
11 74141.6408556551 20882.359144345
12 68100.3833084866 19903.616691513
13 81275.4662570987 -11275.4662571
14 93807.8622326078 16445.137767392
40,000
Chi phí sản xuất
20,000

00,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

-
400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8295799
R Square 0.6882028
Adjusted R 0.6622197
Standard Er13771.853
Observatio 14

ANOVA
df SS MS
2.4238062 Regression 1 5023545253 5023545253
Residual 12 2275967270 189663939
Total 13 7299512523

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0% CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat
61018.379 14769.812 61018.379 Intercept 37894.096 10613.24923 3.570451872
91.477325 37.060069 91.477325 Số lượng s 64.268697 12.48782261 5.14650947

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observatio Predicted CResiduals

1 118872.65 4245.345816
2 102612.67 -3011.67376
3 121186.33 10813.67271
4 94000.668 -14000.6683
5 72085.043 -20085.0425
6 68486 -9860.99549
 7 68871.608 5752.392324
8 119708.15 -9708.14725
9 82368.034 -1368.03411
10 82239.497 -8732.49672
11 74141.641 20882.35914
12 68100.383 19903.61669
13 81275.466 -11275.4663
14 93807.862 16445.13777
 F Significance F
26.48656 0.0002424

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 99.0%

Upper 99.0%
0.0038492 14769.812 61018.379 5475.5056 70312.686
0.0002424 37.060069 91.477325 26.124149 102.41325
 Tháng Số lượng sản phẩm sản xuất Chi phí sản xuất
140,000
1 1,260 123,118
2 1,007 99,601 120,000
f(x) = 64.268697310303 x + 37
3 1,296 132,000 R² = 0.688202840563914
4 873 80,000 100,000
5 532 52,000
6 476 58,625 80,000

7 482 74,624
60,000
8 1,273 110,000
9 692 81,000 40,000
10 690 73,507
11 564 95,024 20,000
12 470 88,004
-
13 675 70,000 400 500 600 700 800
14 870 110,253
15 1,100 108,589.66
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8295799181296
R Square 0.688202840563914
Adjusted R Square 0.66221974394424
Standard Error 13771.8531495498
Observations 14

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 5023545253.355 5023545253 26.48656
Residual 12 2275967270.073 189663939.2
Total 13 7299512523.429

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 37894.0955726442 10613.24922797 3.570451872 0.003849
Số lượng sản phẩm sản xuất 64.268697310303 12.48782260671 5.14650947 0.000242

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Chi phí sản xuất Residuals

1 118872.654183626 4245.345816374
2 102612.673764119 -3011.67376412
3 121186.327286797 10813.6727132 #NAME?
4 94000.6683245387 -14000.6683245
5 72085.0425417254 -20085.0425417
6 68485.9954923484 -9860.99549235
 7 68871.6076762102 5752.39232379
8 119708.14724866 -9708.14724866
9 82368.0341113739 -1368.03411137
10 82239.4967167532 -8732.49671675
11 74141.6408556551 20882.35914435
12 68100.3833084866 19903.61669151
13 81275.4662570987 -11275.4662571
14 93807.8622326078 16445.13776739
0

0
f(x) = 64.268697310303 x + 37894.0955726442
R² = 0.688202840563914
0

400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400

Significance F
0.0002423806

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
14769.81199 61018.38 14769.81 61018.38
37.0600692 91.47733 37.06007 91.47733
Năm STT Doanh số thực tế Doanh số dự báo SSDB
2010 1 70 103.48 33.48 33.475237
2011 2 183 182.86 (0.14) 0.1378981
2012 3 340 323.16 (16.84) 16.844922
2013 4 649 571.08 (77.92) 77.918274
2014 5 1243 1,009.22 (233.78) 233.78071
2015 6 1979 1,783.50 (195.50) 195.50121
2016 7 4096 3,151.81 (944.19) 944.18951
2017 8 6440 5,569.90 (870.10) 870.10029
2018 9 8459 9,843.16 1,384.16 1384.1625
2019 10 12154 17,394.90 5,240.90 5240.8998

2021 12 54,324.59
 Doanh số thực tế
14000
f(x) = 58.5526639811189 exp( 0.569366794991698 x )
12000 R² = 0.982832652473701

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Month COST A Made B Made C Made
1 44439 515 541 928
2 43936 929 692 711
3 44464 800 710 824
4 41533 979 675 758
5 46343 1165 1147 635
6 44922 651 939 901
7 43203 847 755 580
8 43000 942 908 589
9 40967 630 738 682
10 48582 1113 1175 1050
11 45003 1086 1075 984
12 44303 843 640 828
13 42070 500 752 708
14 44353 813 989 804
15 45968 1190 823 904
16 47781 1200 1108 1120
17 43202 731 590 1065
18 44074 1089 607 1132
19 44610 786 513 839
20 42567.738 864.6 436.05 880.95
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.7804212
R Square 0.6090573
Adjusted R Square 0.5601895
Standard Error 1273.7154
Observations 19

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 40439876.29 20219938.14 12.4633568 0.0005456
Residual 16 25957614.34 1622350.896
Total 18 66397490.63

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 35475.303 1842.860853 19.25012543 1.72346E-12 31568.612
B Made 5.3209681 1.429095476 3.72331182 0.00185 2.291421
C Made 5.4171378 1.745311646 3.103822668 0.00683 1.7172424
0.05

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted COST Residuals

1 43381.05 1057.949794
2 43008.997 927.002527
3 43716.911 747.0885248
4 43173.146 -1640.14649
5 45018.335 1324.664528
6 45352.533 -430.532779
7 42634.573 568.4265963
8 43497.436 -497.43576
9 43096.665 -2129.66501
10 47415.435 1166.565215
11 46525.807 -1522.80688
12 43366.112 936.8877388
13 43312.004 -1242.00414
14 45093.119 -740.118812
15 44751.552 1216.448104
16 47438.13 342.8704271
17 44383.926 -1181.92553
18 44837.33 -763.330221
19 42749.938 1860.062168
x1 x2 y
CPBH Doanh thu
CP QLDN CPBH Doanh thu

EBIT EPS
DS EBIT EPS

TN VCSH DS

CPCD CPKB EPS

CPBH+CPQLDN +CP lãi vay GVHB

68% Max 95% 42568.956

MIN 42566.52
Significance F

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

39381.9930407457 31568.612 39381.9930407
8.35051514882601 2.291421 8.35051514883
9.11703325472262 1.7172424 9.11703325472