Example 5.3.

The network for a certain project is shown in

Fig. 5.9. Determine the expected time for each ofthepath. Which path
is critical ?
PERT : TIME ESTIMATES 111

Solution.
In the network, event 1 is the starting event while event 8 is
the end event. There are following four paths from the starting event
to the end event :
8-10- 12

5-812
6 - 8 - 1 1

4-8 14
8-10- 12 7-10 - 15
3-7-9
6

5-710 4
4-6-8
5
3-5-6

FIG. 5.9
Path A:1-2-7-8
Path B:1-2-6-8
Path C :1-3-6-8
Path D:14-5-6-8
The optimistic time for each of the path is equal to the sum
of all to's of activity of that path. Similarly, the pessimistic time and
most likely time of each of the paths can be found. These times are
shown in Table 5.5.
Table 5.5

Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

time time time

Path A 1-2-7-8 19 26 35

Path B 1 2 6 8 17 26 40

Path C 1-3-6 8 18 27 36

Path D 1 4 5 6 8 19 28 39

From the point of view of pessimistic time, path B is critical

since it takes longest duration. From the point of view of optimistic
 112 PERT TIME ESTIMATES

time, paths AandDare equally critical. However, from the most

likely time point of view, path D is the most critical.
In the PRT analysis, the expected time tg is taken as the
basis for finding the critical path. As indicated earlier, the expected
time tg is computed from the equation
to +4tL + tp
tg = 6
Thus, exxpected time for each activity can be found. The
expected time (tp) for any path is equal to Etg of all activities. The
computations are shown in Table 5.6.
Table 5.6
Path Activity to

1-2 6 11 8.17
A 2-7 10 12 10.00 26.34
7-8 5 8 12 8.17

1-2 6 11 8.17
B 2-6 4 8 14 8.33 26.83
6-8 7 10 15 10.33

13 3 7 6.67
C 3-6 8 10 12 10.00 27.00
6-8 7 10 15 10.33

14 5 7 10 7.17
D 45 4 8 6.00 28.33
5-6 3 6 4.83
68 7 10 15 10.33

From Table 5.6, we find that path D is critical since Etg for
this path is the maximum.