Ministry of Higher Education

High Institute for Engineering and Technology, New Damietta

Civil Engineering Department
ENG-408 [Project Management and Control]
Sheet 2
Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)
Probability Aspects of Project Completion Time
❖ The given table shows the activities list of a project, compute:
- Activity’s expected time (te).
- Activity’s variance (σ2 ).
- Activity’s standard deviation (σ).
- Draw the network.
- Find TE, TL, and slack time for each event.
- Determine the project completion time.
- Determine the critical path and show it clearly on the network.
- Are there any non-critical paths that also must have a watch over?

Activity Predecessors to tm tp
A -- 1.5 2 15
B -- 2 3.5 21
C A 1 1.5 18
D B 0.5 1 15
1. E A 3 5 24
F C 1 2 16
G D 0.5 1 14
H B 2.5 3.5 25
I E, F 1 3 18
J G, H 2 3 18

Activity Predecessors to tm tp Activity Predecessor to tm tp

A -- 18 20 22 A -- 28 32 36
B A 8 10 14 B -- 22 28 32
C B 5 8 9 C A 26 36 46
D A 10 11 12 D B 14 16 18
E C, D 7 7 7 E B 32 32 32
F E 4 6 7 F B 40 52 74
2. G D 10 12 14 3. G D 12 16 24
H E 12 13 15 H G 16 20 26
I H 5 5 5 I E, G 26 34 42
- Use the mean critical path to find the approximate probability J C, F 12 16 30
that the project will be completed within 22 months. - Find the approximate probability that the project will finish
- Consider the other three paths through the project network, for within 100 days.
each of these paths, find the approximate probability that the
path will be completed within 22 months.

Activity Predecessors to tm tp Activity Predecessor to tm tp

A -- 3 4 5 A -- 12 12 12
B A 2 2 2 B -- 15 21 39
C B 3 5 6 C A 12 15 18
D A 1 3 5 D B 18 27 36
4. E B, D 2 3 5 5. E C 12 18 24
- Find the approximate probability of completing the project F E 2 5 14
within 11 weeks. - Use the mean critical path to find the approximate
- The president of the construction company wants to place the probability that project will be completed within 57 days.
bid only if he has at least a 50% chance of meeting the deadline. - Considering the sub-critical path through the project
How would you advise him? network. Find the approximate probability that this path will
be completed within 57 days.

Activity to tp tm
A 4 6 4.5
B 2 17 8
C 1 6 2
D 2 4 2.5
6.
E 6 20 8
F 12 20 16
G 6 15 9
H 10 16 12
I 1 2 1.5

Best Wishes,
Eng. Elin Eldars
1
 Ministry of Higher Education
High Institute for Engineering and Technology, New Damietta
Civil Engineering Department
ENG-408 [Project Management and Control]

Activity to tm tp
A 4 5 6
B 4 6 8
C 3 5 7
D 1 3 11
7.
E 2 5 14
F 8 11 20
G 4 5 6
H 4 4 10 - What will happen if activity G increases by 3 weeks.
- What will happen if activity F increases by 3 weeks.
I 5 6 13
Probability Table

Best Wishes,
Eng. Elin Eldars
2