174 Binomial and Poisson Distributions

INTRODUCTION
First, we should remind ourselves of the distinction between discrete and continuous
variables. Discrete variables can only take on a countable number of values (usually whole
numbers), while continuous variables can theoretically take on any value on the number line
(and include variables such as height, weight and time values).
Next, we need to define a probability distribution. A probability distribution is like a frequency
distribution, but instead of showing the frequencies, it shows the probabilities associated with
all the possible values of a variable:
A probability distribution is a graph, table or formula that specifies
the probabilities associated with all the possible values of a variable. If
the variable in question is a discrete variable, the probability
distribution is called a discrete probability distribution. If the variable
in question is a continuous variable, the probability distribution is called
a continuous probability distribution.
As an example of a discrete probability distribution, consider the simple experiment of
throwing a single die and observing which number appears. There are only six possible
outcomes of this experiment, each with the same probability (1/6). The probability distribution
may be written as in Table 1.
Table 11.1: Throwing a die

Possible outcomes Probabilities

1 1/6
2 1/6
3 1/6
4 1/6
5 1/6
6 1/6

This is a simple rectangular probability distribution. Note that the probabilities add up to 1,
which they must do as we have included every possible outcome of the experiment in the
table, and it is a certainty that one of these outcomes will occur.
As a second example of a discrete probability distribution, consider the simple experiment of
throwing two separate dice and observing the score. Now there are eleven possible
outcomes of this experiment. The probability distribution may be written as in Table 11.2.
In looking at this table, you should confirm the probabilities presented in the second column
and make sure you understand why 7 is the most likely score. This is a symmetrical
probability distribution. Note again that the probabilities sum to 1, since scores of 2 to 12 are
the only possible scores when two dice are thrown.
Two of the most important discrete probability distributions, the binomial distribution and the
Poisson distribution, are discussed in this chapter. The most important continuous probability
distribution, the normal distribution, is considered in Chapter 12.

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 Binomial and Poisson Distributions 175

Table 11.2: Throwing two dice

Possible outcomes Probabilities

2 1/36
3 2/36
4 3/36
5 4/36
6 5/36
7 6/36
8 5/36
9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36

A. THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

The binomial probability distribution is applicable in situations where an experiment,
consisting of a certain number of trials satisfies all of four conditions. These are:
1. The number of trials must be fixed and finite. This number is usually denoted by n.
2. Every trial must result in one or other of only two mutually exclusive possible outcomes,
which, for convenience, we usually label "success" or "failure". Examples are:
(a) When we roll a die we get a six or we do not get a six.
(b) A product is either defective or not defective.
(c) A tossed coin comes down heads or tails.
(d) A child is either a boy or a girl.
We must, of course, define which event is the success before the term is used.
3. The probability of a success or failure at each trial must remain constant throughout the
experiment. The probability of a success is usually denoted by p, and that of a failure
by q.
4. The outcome of every trial must be independent of the outcome of every other trial. For
example, if a coin is unbiased, then the probability of obtaining a head on the tenth time
it is tossed remains 1/2, even if the previous nine tosses have all resulted in heads.
Provided these four conditions all hold, the binomial distribution enables us to work out the
probability of any given number of successes or failures in a specified number of trials.

Die-Throwing Experiments
We shall work out from first principles the probabilities for the situation where we throw a fair
die and observe whether we obtain a 6 or not. We shall label obtaining a 6 as success and
not obtaining a 6 as failure.

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176 Binomial and Poisson Distributions

1 5
We know that for a fair die, P(success) = , P(failure) =
6 6
and we can draw a simple tree diagram (Figure 11.1), where S denotes a success and F
denotes a failure:

Figure 11.1: Die-throwing experiments – first throw

S
1
6

5
6
F

Thus, for one throw of the die we can write:

5 1
P(0 successes) = , P(1 success) =
6 6
Let us now throw the die again. The probability of a success or failure at this second throw
remains unchanged at 1/6 or 5/6 respectively. We can extend our tree diagram as follows
(Figure 11.2):
Figure 11.2: Die-throwing experiments – second throw

1st Throw 2nd Throw

S
1
6

5
S 6
1
6 F
5
6 S
1
F 6

5
6
F

At the end of two throws, the different possible outcomes are as in Table 11.3.
Table 11.3: Outcomes at the end of two throws

1st throw 2nd throw Number of

successes

6 6 2
6 Not a 6 1
Not a 6 6 1
Not a 6 Not a 6 0

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 Binomial and Poisson Distributions 177

We can put our results in Table 11.4.

Table 11.4: Results of die-throwing after two throws

Event Probability

2
5
0 successes 6
 
 1  5   5   1
1 success 6 6 + 6 6
     
 5   1
= 2  
6 6
2
 1
2 successes 6
 

We then throw the die once more. The different possible outcomes after 3 throws are best
found by looking at the tree, extended one stage more (see Figure 11.4 and Table 11.5):
Figure 11.3: Die-throwing experiments – third throw

1st Throw 2nd Throw 3rd Throw

S
1
6

5
S 6
1
6 F
5
6 S
1
F 6
S 1 5
6 6
F

5 S
6 1
6
F S 5
6
1
6 F
5
6 S
1
F 6

5
6
F

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178 Binomial and Poisson Distributions

Table 11.5: Results of die-throwing after three throws

Outcomes Probability

3
SSS  1
6
 
2
 1 5 
SSF 6 6
   

 1  5   1
SFS 6 6 6
   
2
 1  5 
SFF 6 6
   
2
5   1
FSS 6 6
  

5  1 5
FSF 6 6 6
     
2
5   1
FFS 6 6
   
3
5
FFF 6
 

and we can condense the results in a second table:

Table 11.6: Condensed results from Table 11.5

Event Probability

3
0 successes 5
6
 
2
5   1
1 success 3   
6 6
2
5  1
2 successes 3  6
6  
3
 1
3 successes 6
 

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 Binomial and Poisson Distributions 179

Activity 1
Now try to extend the tree diagram one stage further corresponding to 4 throws of the die.
List all the possible outcomes in a table with their probabilities and then construct a second
table giving the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 successes.

General Binomial Experiment

In a general experiment where each trial has just two mutually exclusive outcomes, we can
denote:
P(success) = p and P(failure) = q
We know that p + q = 1, as one or other of these outcomes is certain to happen (see Figure
11.5 and Table 11.7). Hence,
Figure 11.4: General binomial experiment – first trial

S
p

q
F

Table 11.7: General binomial experiment – outcome of first trial

Event Probability

0 successes q
1 success p

The trial is performed again (see Figure 11.5, Tables 11.8 and 11.9):
Figure 11.5: General Binomial Experiment – second trial

1st Trial 2nd Trial

S
p

S q
p F
q S
F p
q
F

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180 Binomial and Poisson Distributions

Table 11.8: Outcomes of second trial

Outcomes Probability

SS p2
SF pq
FS qp
FF q2

Table 11.9: Results of second trial

Event Probability

0 successes q2
1 success 2qp
2 successes p2

and for a third time (see Figure 11.6, Tables 11.10 and 11.11):
Figure 11.6: General Binomial Experiment – third trial

1st Trial 2nd Trial 3rd Trial

S
p

S q
p F
q S
F p
S
p q
F

S
q p
F S q
p F
q S
F p
q
F

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 Binomial and Poisson Distributions 181

Table 11.10: Outcomes of third trial

Outcomes Probability

SSS p3
SSF p2q
SFS pqp
SFF pq2
FSS qp2
FSF qpq
FFS q2p
FFF q3

Table 11.11: Results of third trial

Event Probability

0 successes q3
1 success 3q2p
2 successes 3qp2
3 successes p3

Activity 2
Now look back to the first section of this chapter and write down the binomial expansions of:
(p + q)2 and (p + q)3
You will see that the terms in the expansions are exactly the same as the probabilities we
have worked out (shown in Table 11.9 and Table 11.11).
See if you can write down, without using a tree diagram, the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
successes, when we perform this trial 4 times.

Although we can use tree diagrams to work out probabilities when we repeat our trial up to 4
or 5 times, once we have larger numbers of repetitions of the trial, the tree diagrams become
unwieldy. It is then much better to use what we have discovered above. That is, if we perform
our trial n times, the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3 .... up to n successes are given by successive
terms in the binomial expansion of (p + q)n, where p is the probability of success and q the
probability of failure at any one trial. Note that p and q must remain constant from trial to trial.
From our formula for the binomial expansion, the general term in the expansion of (p + q)n is
n n-x
nCxp q : this gives us the probability of exactly x successes in n trials of the experiment. So
we have:
P(x) = nCxpnqn-x for x = 0, 1, 2, …. , n
where P(x) represents the probability of x successes in n trials and q = 1 – p.

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