Problems on Bayes’ Theorem:

𝑃(𝐴𝑘 )𝑃(𝐵|𝐴𝑘 )
𝑃(𝐴𝑘 |𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1) + 𝑃(𝐴2)𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 )𝑃(𝐵|𝐴𝑘 )

P(Pam)=15/30
P(Pia)=5/30
P(Pablo)=10/30
P(First|Pam)=4/100=0.04
P(First|Pia)=6/100=0.06
P(First|Pablo)=3/100=0.03
𝑃 (𝑃𝑎𝑚|𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 )
𝑃 (𝑃𝑎𝑚)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑚)
=
𝑃(𝑃𝑎𝑚)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑚) + 𝑃 (𝑃𝑖𝑎)𝑃(𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑖𝑎 ) + 𝑃(𝑃𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑜) 𝑃(𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑜 )
𝑃 (𝑃𝑖𝑎|𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 )
𝑃 (𝑃𝑖𝑎)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑖𝑎 )
=
𝑃 (𝑃𝑎𝑚)𝑃(𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑚 ) + 𝑃 (𝑃𝑖𝑎)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑖𝑎 ) + 𝑃(𝑃𝑎𝑚)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑜 )
= (5*0.06)/1.2=3/12=1/4=25%
𝑃 (𝑃𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑜|𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 )
𝑃 (𝑃𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑜)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑜 )
=
𝑃 (𝑃𝑎𝑚)𝑃(𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑚 ) + 𝑃 (𝑃𝑖𝑎)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑖𝑎 ) + 𝑃(𝑃𝑎𝑚)𝑃 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡|𝑃𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑜 )
=(10*0.03)/1.2=3/12=1/4=25%
P(Pablo|First)=1-0.5-0.25=0.25=25%

1. Suppose that a product is produced in three factories X, Y and Z. It is known

that factory X produces thrice as many items as factory Y, and that factories Y
and Z produce same number of items. Assume that 3 percent of the items
produced by each of the factories X and Z are defective while 5 percent of those
manufactured by factory Y are defective. All the items produced in the three
factories are stocked, and an item of product is selected at random.
i. What is the probability that item is defective?
ii. If an item selected at random is found to be defective, what is the probability
that it was produced by factory X, Y, and Z respectively?
---
E1: Item is from Factory X 3n
E2: Item is from Factory Y n
E3: Item is from Factory Z n
S=3n+n+n=5n
P(E1)=3n/5n=0.6
P(E2)=n/5n=0.2
P(E3)=n/5n=0.2
A: Item is defective.
P(A|X)=3%=0.03
P(A|Y)=5%=0.05
P(A|Z)=3%=0.03
P(A)= P(E1)*P(A|X)+P(E2)*P(A|Y)+P(E3)*P(A|Z)
=0.6*0.03+0.2*0.05+0.2*0.03=0.018+0.01+0.006=0.034
P(E1|A)=Known-Item is defective; E1=?
P(A|E1)=Known-Item is from E1(X); A=?

𝑃(𝐸1) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1)
𝑃 (𝐸1|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐸1) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1) + 𝑃(𝐸2) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2) + 𝑃(𝐸3) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸3)
0.6∗0.03 0.018 0.018 9
𝑃 (𝐸1|𝐴) = = = = = 0.529
0.6∗0.03+0.2∗0.05+0.2∗0.03 0.018+0.01+0.006 0.034 17

𝑃(𝐸2) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2)
𝑃 (𝐸2|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐸1) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1) + 𝑃(𝐸2) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2) + 𝑃(𝐸3) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸3)
0.2∗0.05 0.01 10 5
𝑃 (𝐸2|𝐴) = = = = = 0.294
0.6∗0.03+0.2∗0.05+0.2∗0.03 0.034 34 17

𝑃(𝐸3) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸3)
𝑃 (𝐸3|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐸1) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1) + 𝑃(𝐸2) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2) + 𝑃(𝐸3) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸3)
0.2∗0.03 0.006 6 3
𝑃 (𝐸3|𝐴) = = = = = 0.176
0.6∗0.03+0.2∗0.05+0.2∗0.03 0.034 34 17

P(E3|A)=1- P(E1|A)- P(E2|A)=1-9/17-5/17=1-14/17=3/17

Question for Practice:

2. In 2002 there will be three candidates for the position of principle- Mr.
Chatterji, Mr. Ayangar and Dr. Singh –whose chances of getting the appointment
re in the proportion 4:2:3 respectively. The probability that Mr. Chatterji if
selected would introduce co-education in the college is 0.3. The probability of
Mr. Ayangar and Dr. Singh doing the same are 0.5 and 0.8.
i. What is probability that there will be co-education in the college in 2003?
ii. If there is co-education in the college in 2003, what is the probability that Dr.
Singh is the principle?