MATH322 TUTORIAL #7

1- On avarage 3 traffic accidents per month occurs. What is the probability that any
given month
a)Exactly 5 accident will occurs?

Poisson Formula
𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 (𝜆𝑡)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
𝑥!
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
𝜆 = 3, 𝑡 = 1 , 𝜆𝑡 = 3
𝜆𝑡 = 𝜇

SOLUTION:
First Wat - By using Poisson Formula
𝑒 −3 (3)5
𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = ≅ 0.1008 = 10.08 %
5!
Second Way - By using table

𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 5) − 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 4)

0.9161 − 0.8153 = 0.1008 = 10.08 %
e = 2.71828
b)fever than 3 accident will occurs?
SOLUTION:
First Wat - By using Poisson Formula
P(X < 3 ) = P(X ≤ 2)
𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 (𝜆𝑡)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
𝑥!

𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 2)

𝑒 −3 (3)0 𝑒 −3 (3)1 𝑒 −3 (3)2
+ + ≅ 0.4232 = 42.32 %
0! 1! 2!

Second Way - By using table

𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = 0.4231 = 42.32 %
 c)at least 2 accident will occur?
SOLUTION:
First Wat - By using Poisson Formula
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 2)
𝑒 −3 (3)0 𝑒 −3 (3)1
1 − [𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1)] = 1 − [ + ] ≅ 0.8009 = 80.09 %
0! 1!
Second Way - By using table
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 1 − 0.1991 = 0.8009 = 80.09 %

2- In an industry, it’s known that the probabilty of an accident on any giveen day is
0.005 and the accidents are independent of each other. What is the probabilty
that in any given period of 400 days there will be an accident on one day?
SOLUTION:

First Way – By using Poisson Formula

𝑛 = 400, 𝑝 = 0.005, 𝜆 = 𝑛. 𝑝 = 400 × 0.005 = 2 , 𝜆. 𝑡 = 2 × 1 = 2

𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 (𝜆𝑡)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
𝑥!
𝑒 −2 (2)1
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = ≅ 0.2707 = 27.07 %
1!

Second Way – By using Binomial Formula

𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥
𝑥

400
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = ( ) 0.0051 (1 − 0.005)399 ≅ 0.2707 = 27.07 %
1
Third Way- By using Poisson Table

𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 1) − 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 0)

0.4060 − 0.1353 = 0.2707 = 27.07 %

3- If the average number of customers visiting a store is 2 per minute. What is the
probability that
a)more than 7 will visit in next minute?
𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 (𝜆𝑡)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
𝑥!

SOLUTION:
First Wat - By using Poisson Formula
𝑃(𝑋 > 7) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 8) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 9) + ⋯
= 1 − [𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝑋 = 7)]
𝑒 −2 (2)0 𝑒 −2 (2)1 𝑒 −2 (2)7
1−[ + + ⋯+ ] ≅ 0.0011 = 0.11 %
0! 1! 7!
Second Way - By using table
𝑃(𝑋 > 7) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 7) = 1 − 0.9989 = 0.0011 = 0.11 %

b)less than 2 customer will visit in next 3 minute?

SOLUTION:
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑤𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 3 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑠
2 1
? 3 → ? = 6 𝑠𝑜 𝜆. 𝑡 = 2 × 3 = 6

𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 (𝜆𝑡)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
𝑥!

First Wat - By using Poisson Formula

𝑃(𝑋 < 2) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1)
𝑒 −6 (6)0 𝑒 −6 (6)1
+ ≅ 0.0174 = 1.74 %
0! 1!
 Second Way - By using table
𝑃(𝑋 < 2) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 0.0174 = 1.74 %

c)find the mean and standard deviation

SOLUTION:

𝜇 = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝜆. 𝑡 = 2
𝜎 2 = 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑥) = 𝜆. 𝑡 = 2.1 = 2

𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝜎 = √𝜎 2 = √2

4- Traffic engineers have determined that on a certain road on average there are 7
accidents in a 45 day period. Determine the following:
a)the probability distribution of the random variable X and write its formula
SOLUTION:
7 𝑝𝑒𝑟 45 𝑑𝑎𝑦
𝜆𝑡 = 7
By using Poisson Formula
𝑒 −7 (7)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋, 𝜆𝑦) = 𝑃(𝑋, 7) =
𝑥!

b)th mean and the variance of the random variable X?

SOLUTION:
𝜇 = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝜆. 𝑡 = 7
𝜎 2 = 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑥) = 𝜆. 𝑡 = 2.1 = 7

c)The probability that at least 1 accident occur in 30-day period?

SOLUTION:
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑠 7 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑤𝑎𝑠 45 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑤𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝜆𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎 30 𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
7 45
30
? 30 → ? = 7 ∗ 45 = 14/3 ≅ 4.7

Now we can rewrite 𝜆 for 30 day period

14
𝜆𝑡 =
3

By Poisson Formula

14 14 𝑥
𝑒− 3 ( )
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 3
𝑥!

14 14 0
−
𝑒 3 ( )
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 1 − 3
0!
14
= 1− 𝑒− 3 = 0.991

5- In a large population of adults, 30% have recieved CPR training. If adults from this
population are randomly selected. What is the probability that the 6th person sampled
is the first that has recieved CPR training

NOTE: the geometric distribution is the distribuition of the number of trials needed to

get the first success P(X=x) = (1-p)x-1p

P = 0.3
So P(X=6) = (1-0.3)50.3 = 0.75 . 0.3 = 0.0504
 6- The distribution of blood types in the US is:
Type O A B AB

Probability 0.44 0.42 0.10 0.004

In a random sample of 10 Americans, what is the probability 6 have O, 2 have A and 1

has B and 1 has AB?

(a given trial can result in the 𝑘 outcomes 𝐸1, 𝐸2, . . . , 𝐸𝑘 with probabilities 𝑝1, 𝑝2, . . .
, 𝑝𝑘 we use multinomial distribution)

𝑛 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥
𝑃(𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , . . . , 𝑥𝑘 ; 𝑝1 , 𝑝2 , . . . , 𝑝𝑘 , 𝑛) = (𝑥 𝑥 . . . 𝑥 ) 𝑝1 1 𝑝2 2 . . . 𝑝𝑘 𝑘
1 2 𝑘

n(O) = 6 p(O) = 0.44, n(A) = 2 p(A) = 0.42, n(B) = 1 p(B) = 0.10 , n(AB) = 1 p(AB) = 0.004

10!
P(6,2,1,1;0,44,0.42,0.10,0.004 , 10 ) = 6!2!1!1! . (0.44)6 . (0.42)2 . (0.10)1 . (0.004)1 = 0.01290

7- Suppose a large high school has 1100 female students and 900 male students. A
random sample of 10 students is drawn. What is the probability exactly 7 of the
selected students are female?

when a random selection (without replacement) is made among objects of two distinct
types we use the hypergeometric distribution

Hypergeometric Formula

(𝑘 𝑁−𝑘
𝑥 )( 𝑛−𝑥 )
ℎ(𝑥, 𝑁, 𝑛, 𝑘) =
(𝑁
𝑛)
 N, the total number of
objects (female+male) ; 𝑘, the number of objects of the type we are looking for (females) ; and
𝑛 the number of objects we are sampling (10)
N = 1100+ 900 = 2000, , k = 1100, N-k = 900 , x = 7 n = 10 , n-x = 3

(𝑘 𝑁−𝑘
𝑥 )( 𝑛−𝑥 )
ℎ(𝑥, 𝑁, 𝑛, 𝑘) = 𝑁
(𝑛)

(1100)(900)
7 3
ℎ(7,2000,10,1100) = 2000 = 0.166490
( 10 )