‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ)‪ ،(25‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ)‪2007 27-17،(1‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻭﻡ )ﺏ(‬

‫ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺒﺩﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ‬

‫**‬ ‫**‬
‫‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺴﻡ ﻤﺯﻋل‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺀ ﻤﺤﺴﻥ* ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻭﺩ ﺴﻠﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﻨﺎﻱ** ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﺎﻡ ﺭﺯﺍﻕ ﻤﻁﺸﺭ‬
‫*ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ ‪/‬ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ‬
‫**ﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺒﺎﺴﻡ )‪ (PMWIN v.5‬ﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﺠﺭﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺒﺩﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ‪ .‬ﺘﻤﺕ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﻟﺤﺎﻟـﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺭﻴـﺎﻥ ﻏﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺏ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻋﻁﻰ ﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺘﻁﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﺠﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺴﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺁﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﺘﺤﺎﻟﻴل ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺎﻤـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻗل ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻗﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺸﻐل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭ ﻟﻐﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒـﺅ ﻭﻓـﻕ ﺨﻁﺘـﻲ ﺘﻁـﻭﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻔﺘﺭﻀﺘﻴﻥ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2006‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺨﻨﺩﻕ ﻁﻭﻴل ﻴﻤﺘﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﺨﻼﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﺸﻐل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻊ ﺇﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺎﻟﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻭﺤﻅ‬
‫ﺤﺼﻭل ﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺁﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻠﻎ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ 0.5‬ﻡ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﻀﻤﻨﺕ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻲ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘـﺔ ﻟـﻭﺤﻅ‬
‫ﺤﺼﻭل ﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻤﻠﻤﻭﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻁﻔﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻨﺘـﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒـﺅ‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻹﻨﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﺼﻼﹰ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻤﻴﺎﻫـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻭﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻹﻴﺠﺎﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‪.‬‬
2007 27-17،(1)‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،(25)‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬ (‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻭﻡ )ﺏ‬

Simulation of influence of artificial recharge on ground

water elevations of Sandy Dibdiba Formation in Safwan
region, southern Iraq

A.M. Atea1 , D. S. Bana2 , W.R. Mutasher2 and Q.M. Flayh2

1
Geology Dept. / Science College/ Basrah University.
2
Marine science center/ Basrah University.

Abstract
PMWIN v.5 software program is used for representing behavior of
ground water flow at Sandy Dibdiba formation in Safwan region, southern Iraq.
The program is numerical mathematical model has been calibrated to unsteady
flow state by trail and error method. By model used its good matching has
obtained for this state between measured and calculated elevations values in
fourth of observed wells. Sensitivity analysis of model is sensible with change of
specific storage factor and less than with transitivity Factor. The calibrated model
is run for simulating within two assumptions. First, the plane of water rainfall
distribution of in the study area where this water is before collected and
discharged via long canal to sea without benefit at Kuwait-Iraq borders.
Distribution of water operation is equaled at all model cells.
It has observed enhancement of water elevations in region wells, where up to
(0.5) m. Second, it's included the plane of excess waters distribution on western
south part of the region. Its slightly observed enhancement in mentioned region,
and also others parts of region. The results confirm important using artificial
recharge method for rehabilitation of formation, also quality enhancement of it
waters, and then it's positively reflected on region future.

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻗﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬،‫ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ‬
،‫ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻠﺕ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻹﺭﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻤﺴﻭﻥ ﻋﺎﻤﺎ ﻤﻀـﺕ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻭﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺨﻀﺭ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺘﺎﺀ ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ‬
.‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‬
18
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪....‬‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺀ ﻤﺤﺴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬

‫ﺃﺸﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺒﺎﻷﺨﺹ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻡ)‪ (Alaa and Al-Asadi, 2006‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨـﺭﻯ ﻭﺠـﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻟﻨﻀﻭﺏ ﺨﺯﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺯﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺌﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﻴـﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻹﺭﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﻭﻟﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺃﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺒﺎ‪ .‬ﻴﻔﻀل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻵﺒـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴـﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻨﺒﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺴﻬﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺎﺘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻁﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻭﻜﻠﻑ ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻁﺌﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻕ ﺍﻟﻀﺤل ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟـﺫﻱ ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل )‪ (10-5‬ﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺒﺭ ﺨﺯﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺌﺭ ﻭﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﻀﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﺜل‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﺢ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻐل ﺤﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺼـﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﻤﻴﺎﻫـﻪ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﻨﻀﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻻ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﻴﺩﺓ ﺒل ﺍﻥ ﺘﺭﺩﻱ ﻨﻭﻋﻴـﺔ ﻤﻴﺎﻫـﻪ ﺘﻌـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺘﺭﺩﻱ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﺭﺩﻱ ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼﻭﺭ ﺒﺎﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺭ ﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺼﻠﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻨﻴﻥ ﻜﺎﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺸـﺤﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺩﺭﻭﻟﻴﻜﻴـﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﻋﺩﺩﻱ ﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺘﺤﺕ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺸﺤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻀﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺸﺘﺎﺀ ‪ 2006‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﺭﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﺒـﺭ ﺨﻨـﺩﻕ‬
‫ﻁﻭﻴل ﺤﻔﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻴﻭﻤﻭﺭﻓﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺩ ﺴﻬل ﺍﻟﺩﺒﺩﺒﺔ )ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻘﻊ ﺒﻀﻤﻨﻪ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ( ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﺄﺠﺯﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺴﻬل ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻭﺒﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺌﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻀﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﺒﺴﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﺘﺭﺒﺔ ﺭﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺤﺼﻭﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨـﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒـﻲ ﻨﺤـﻭ ﺍﻟﺸـﻤﺎل‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻁ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ )‪ 5‬ﻤﺘﺭ( ﻓـﻭﻕ‬
‫ﻼ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﺭﻯ ﺨﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﺘﺠـﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸـﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻟﺸـﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺴﻁﺢ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﺒﺘﺩﺍ ‪‬ﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺏ ﻗﻠﻴ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ )ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ‪ (1‬ﺇﻥ ﺴﻁﺢ ﺍﻟﻬﻀﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﺘﺠـﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻐـﺭﺏ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻲ ﻟﻴﺼل ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺒﻠﻎ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺏ‬
‫ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ )‪ 82‬ﺴﻡ ﻟﻜل ‪ 1‬ﻜﻡ( ﻭﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻲ ﺒﺎﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸـﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺸـﺭﻗﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ )‪ 185‬ﺴﻡ ﻟﻜل ‪ 1‬ﻜﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺇﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﹰﺎ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﻪ )‪ 5‬ﻤﺘﺭ( ﻓﻭﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺴﻁﺢ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﻴﻁ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺨﻁﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺘﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺎﺭﺒﺔ )ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ( ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ(‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺤﺭﻜـﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻭل ﺇﻟﻴﻬـﺎ ﺃﺜﻨـﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺘﺴﺎﻗﻁ ﺍﻟﺯﺨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﺘﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘـﺔ ﺒﻭﺠـﻭﺩ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ)‪ ،(25‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ)‪2007 27-17،(1‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻭﻡ )ﺏ(‬

‫ﺠﺒل ﺴﻨﺎﻡ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻗﺒﺔ ﺼﺨﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻌﺯﻟﺔ ﻴﺼل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ )‪ (152‬ﻤﺘﺭ ﻓﻭﻕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ )‪ (8‬ﻜﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺭﻴﻑ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺸـﻜل‬
‫ﻭﺩﻴﺎﻥ ﺸﻌﺎﻋﻴﻪ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻔﺭﻋﺎﺕ ﻤﺭﻭﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻁﻥ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺠﺒل ﺴﻨﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺩ ﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺠﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻭ ﻴﺼﻨﻑ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻟﺼـﺤﺭﺍﻭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻑ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺘﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻸﻤﻁﺎﺭ )‪ 142.4‬ﻤﻠﻡ( ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺤﻴﻥ ﻴﺒﻠﻎ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺨﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ )‪ 3087‬ﻤﻠﻡ( ﺃﻱ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (16‬ﻤﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺼل ﻤﻌﺩﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ )‪ 25.2‬ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺴـﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻴـﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ )‪ (%36‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ )‪3.5‬‬
‫ﻡ‪/‬ﺜﺎ(‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﺩل ﻤﻤﺎ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﺏ ﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒـﺎﻟﺘﺒﺨﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﺇﻥ ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﹰﺎ ﻭﺸﻬﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻷﻤﻁـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ )ﻴﻭﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻴﻭﻤﺎﻥ( ﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺩﻓﻘﻬﺎ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻁﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻁﺎﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ )ﺸـﻜل‬
‫‪. (2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

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‫ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪....‬‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺀ ﻤﺤﺴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل )‪ (1‬ﺨﺎﺭﻁﺔ ﺠﻴﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ )ﻴﺎﺴﻴﻥ‪.(1998 ،‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل )‪ (2‬ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﻗﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻱ ﻟﻤﺤﻁﺔ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪.(1998-1980‬‬
‫ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻤﺠﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻭﻤﻴﺔ )‪(GUI‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺒﺎﺴﻡ )‪ (PMWIN v.5‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒـل )‪ ، Chaing and Kinzelbach (2004‬ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﺍﻨﻪ ﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺒﺭﻤﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺠﺭﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻭﺜﺎﺕ ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻭﺘﻤﺎﺘﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﺸـﻔﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻤﺠﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓـﺔ ﻤﺜـل ‪MODFlOW-88,‬‬
‫‪.MODFlOW-96, PMPATH, MT3D, MT3DMS, MOC3D, PEST UCODE‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ‪ :Conceptual Model‬ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺃﻱ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻴﺎﻀـﻲ ﻋـﺩﺩﻱ‬

‫ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ‪ prototype mode‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻪ ﺘﺒﺴﻴﻁ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎل ﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺩﺭﻭﺠﻴﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ‪ .‬ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﺘﺼﺎﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺩﺭﻭﻟﻴﻜﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻜﺎﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻌﺔ ﺘﺤﺘـﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﻋ‪‬ﺩ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻤﻜﻤﻨﺎ ﻤﺎﺌﻴﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺤﺼﻭﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻔﺼﻭل ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﻊ ﺘﺤﺘﻪ ﺒﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﺼﺨﺭﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﻔﺫﺓ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺇﻟﻐﺎﺀ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺭﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻁﺤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻷﻋﻠـﻰ ﺒﺘـﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﺦ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺃﻭﻻ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺁﺒﺎﺭ ﻟﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻟﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺸﺒﻪ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩ ﺘﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺫﻜﺭﻫﺎ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )‪ .Haddad and Hawa (1979‬ﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺠﺭﻴـﺎﻥ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ)‪ ،(25‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ)‪2007 27-17،(1‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻭﻡ )ﺏ(‬

‫ﺒﺒﻌﺩﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻟﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺨﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـﻤﻙ ﻨﺴـﺒﻴﹰﺎ )‪ 14‬ﻡ(‬
‫ﻭﺘﻤﺘﺩ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩﺍ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ ‪ : Model grid and boundary conditions‬ﺘـﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻜل ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻤﻨﺘﻅﻤﺔ ﻤﺅﻟﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ 24‬ﺼﻔﺎ ﻭ ‪ 38‬ﻋﻤﻭﺩﺍ ﺃﻱ ‪ 192‬ﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﺘﻅﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﺎﺒﻌﺎﺩ )‪ (500 × 500‬ﻡ‪) ،‬ﺸﻜل ‪ .(3‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻘـﺩ ﻋ‪‬ـﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﺤـﺩﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﺯﺀ ﺼﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﺤﺩﻭﺩﺍ ﻋﺩﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺭﻴﺎﻥ ﻻﻥ ﺍﺘﺠـﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﺭﻴـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﺯ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﺄﺨﺫﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺃﻨﻬـﺎ ﺤـﺩﻭﺩ ﺜﺎﺒﺘـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﻷﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻌﺩﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻬﺎ ﺤـﺩﻭﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴـﻭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻁﺭﺃ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴل‪.‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺩﺭﻭﻟﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻻﺒﺘـﺩﺍﺌﻲ‪ :‬ﺃﺠﺭﻴـﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺩﺭﻭﻟﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺒﺩﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺴﻔﻭﺍﻥ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﺠﺯﺌﻴﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﺤل ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻕ ‪(Haddad and Hawa, 1979; Al-Jawad et al., 1989; Al-Kubaisi,‬‬
‫)‪ 1999; and Al-Suhail et al., 2005‬ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺩﺭﻭﻟﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺫﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ Al-Suhail et al. (2005‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒـﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ‪ 15‬ﺒﺌﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﺴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻤﺎ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺤﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘـﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻬﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻲ ﺒﺎﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻲ ﺃﻱ ﺒﺎﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻤﻨـﺎﻁﻕ‬
‫ـﺩﺍﺭﻩ ‪0.0018‬‬ ‫ـﺩﺭﻭﻟﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﻘـ‬ ‫ـﺩﺭﺝ ﻫﻴـ‬ ‫ـﺭﺓ ﻭﺒﺘـ‬ ‫ـﻁ ﺍﻟﺒﺼـ‬ ‫ـﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺸـ‬ ‫ـﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻔـ‬‫ـﻲ ﻨﻬـ‬ ‫ـﺭﻴﻑ ﻓـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼـ‬
‫)‪.(Al-Abadi, 2001‬‬
‫‪ .5‬ﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ‪ :Calibration‬ﺘﻤﺕ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺭﻴﺎﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺘﻭﺜﻴﻕ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻗﺒل ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ﻤﻨﻪ)ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﻗﺒل ﺃﺭﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﻋﺎﻤﺎ ﻤﻀﺕ(‪ .‬ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺃﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺴـﻨﺔ ﻤﺎﺌﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ )‪ .(Al-Abadi, 2001) (2001-2000‬ﻗﺴﻤﺕ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 12‬ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻀﺦ‬
‫)‪ (stress period‬ﻁﻭل ﻜل ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 30‬ﻴﻭﻤﹰﺎ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺨﻁﻭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴـﺔ )‪ (time steps‬ﻴﻭﻤـﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﹰﺍ‪ .‬ﺭﻭﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﺴﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺜﻼﺙ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻀﺦ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺜﻑ ﻭﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﻭﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ‪ .‬ﺘﻤﺕ ﻤﻌـﺎﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺏ )‪ (trail and error‬ﻭﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻗﻠﻴـﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻤـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﺤﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻓﻀل ﺍﻨﻁﺒﺎﻕ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ )ﺸﻜل ‪.(4‬‬

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‫ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪....‬‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺀ ﻤﺤﺴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬

‫‪No flow boundary‬‬

‫‪W3‬‬

‫‪Variable head boundary‬‬

‫‪z‬‬
‫‪z‬‬ ‫‪W2 Safwan‬‬
‫‪Jabal Sanam‬‬

‫‪W1‬‬
‫‪W4‬‬

‫‪Constant head boundary‬‬

‫ﺸﻜل )‪ (3‬ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫‪Calculated‬‬
‫‪Observed‬‬

‫‪W1‬‬

‫‪W2‬‬

‫‪W4‬‬
‫‪W3‬‬

‫ﺸﻜل )‪ (4‬ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ ﻭﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬

‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ)‪ ،(25‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ)‪2007 27-17،(1‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻭﻡ )ﺏ(‬

‫‪ .6‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ‪ :Sensitivity analysis‬ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺤﺴﺎﺴـﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻌﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻲ ﻭﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻗﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻷﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﺭﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺒﻌﻜـﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .7‬ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ : Prediction Run‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺴـﻠﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻭﻓﻕ ﺨﻁﺘﻲ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺘﺭﻀﺘﻴﻥ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴـﻊ ﻜﻤﻴـﺎﺕ ﻤﻴـﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ )‪ (32 × 106‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﺨﻼﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺸﻐل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻟﺴـﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺇﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺒﺘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﺜل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ﻭﻓﺘﺭﺍﺘﻬـﺎ ﻭﻋـﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺭ ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻀﺦ ‪...‬ﺍﻟﺦ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ )ﺸﻜل ‪ (5‬ﺜﻡ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺭ ﺁﺫﺍﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ )ﺸـﻜل ‪.(6‬‬
‫ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﻓﻲ ﻜﻼ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻤﻭﺱ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴـﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻘل ﻋﻥ ‪ 0.5‬ﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺕ ﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻜل ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﻀﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻠﻭﺤﻅ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻓـﻲ ﺘﻠـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺌﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ 1‬ﻤﻊ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻁﻔﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘـﺔ‬
‫)ﺸﻜل ‪ .(7‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻜﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻏﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻹﻨﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺃﺼﻼ‪ .‬ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻻ ﻴﺸﻤل ﻓﻘﻁ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺒل ﻴﺸﻤل ﺃﻴﻀـﺎ‬
‫ﻼ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺴﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺤﺘﻤﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻹﻴﺠﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺯﺯ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ‬

‫‪With recharge‬‬
‫‪Without recharge‬‬

‫‪W1‬‬

‫‪W2‬‬
‫‪W4‬‬
‫‪W3‬‬

‫‪24‬‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪....‬‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺀ ﻤﺤﺴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬

‫ﺸﻜل )‪ (5‬ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ‬
‫)ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ(‬

‫‪With recharge‬‬
‫‪Without recharge‬‬
‫‪W1‬‬

‫‪W2‬‬
‫‪W4‬‬
‫‪W3‬‬

‫ﺸﻜل )‪ (6‬ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ‬

‫)ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﺫﺍﺭ(‬

‫‪With recharge‬‬
‫‪Without recharge‬‬ ‫‪W1‬‬

‫‪W2‬‬

‫‪W4‬‬
‫‪W3‬‬

‫ﺸﻜل )‪ (7‬ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﻓﻕ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫)ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ(‬

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2007 27-17،(1)‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،(25)‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬ (‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻭﻡ )ﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺸﺤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ( ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬
.‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬
:‫ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺎﺘﻲ‬
.‫ﺤﻔﺭ ﺁﺒﺎﺭ ﻟﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻻﺤﻘﺔ‬ .1
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭل ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺨﺯﺍﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻭ‬ .2
‫ﺘﻐﺫﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺤﻔﺭ ﺍﺤﻭﺍﺽ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻤلﺀ ﻗﻴﻌﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺤﺼﻰ ﻟﺘﺴـﻬﻴل ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‬
.‫ﺘﺭﺸﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﺭﻴﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺩ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻜﺜـﺭ‬ .3
‫ﺩﻗﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻭﺘﺤﺴـﻴﻥ‬
.‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
Alaa, M. A. and Al-Asadiy S. Abd Al-Ameer, 2006. Management of
groundwater resource of Dibdibba sandy aquifer in Safwan- Zubair
area, south of Iraq, Basrah Res. Jour., No. 81, pp: 30-43.
Al-Abadi, M. A., 2001. Optimum management model of groundwater
resources in Safwan-Zubair area, south of Iraq. Unpub. M. Sc. Thesis,
College of Scaince, University of Basrah, 110p.
Al-Jawad, S. A., Ayob, M. S., Khalil, S. and Al-Radi, N. H., 1989,
“Hydraulic properties of Dibdibba sandstone using pumping tests data
in large diameter wells, Proc. 5th, Sci., Conf., SRC., Iraq, Vol.1, Part
3, p.p.133-146.
Al-Kubaisi, Q. Y., 1999, “Quaternary-Tertiary hydrogeologic boundary
condition at Safwan-Zubair area, South of Iraq, Iraqi Jour. Scie.,
Vol.40, No.3, p.p:21-28.
Al-Suhail Q. A., Al-Mansori, H. B., and Atiaa M. A., 2005. Determination
of hydraulic characteristics of Dibdibba sandy aquifer, South of Iraq,
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.... ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺀ ﻤﺤﺴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬

from pumping tests on large diameter wells using numerical method,

case study. Iraqi Basrah Jouranl, Univ. of Basrah, Vol. 23, No.1, pp:
20-22.
Chaing, W.-H. and Kinzelbach, W., 1998. Processing Modflow, a
simulation system for modeling groundwater flow and pollution.
328p.
Haddad, R. H. and Hawa, A. J., 1979. Hydrogeology of the Safwan-
Zubair area, south of Iraq, Tech. Bull., No. 122, Sci. Res.,
Foundations, Iraq, 232p.

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