Trends Midterms ☆ o Not created but it is revived from a

Trend vs Fad style that existed all along in the

- Trend lives of some subgroup
• Pattern or concept
• Continuing influence Characteristics Trend Fad
• Has an appeal of newness but is Duration of Can remain few months of
missing in the market Time popular for unexpected
• Sustained or increasing numbers decades popularity,
• Continuous use and appeal because of short
its effectiveness, popularity, high market Industry Accepted and One industry,
demand, and influence acceptability supported by rarely crosses
• Elements and Characteristics many big to others, risky
o Duration of time industries to accept
§ Longer staying power and a long Cultural roots or Rooted on Does not cross
period of popularity basis cultural cultural borders
§ Lifespan does not disappear traditions,
quickly beliefs, values
o Acceptability Consumer Great adoption Rarely
§ Popularly accepted by many adoption and due to its expected to
industries and people perception of effectiveness stand long
§ Receive popular support from overall quality
companies and consumers as Reason for rise Consumers’ Emotional
accepted idea or patterns needs and need, publicity,
o Cultural basis lifestyle trends and product
§ Rooted on people’s cultural opinion
traditions, beliefs and values Incubation Develop slowly Increase,
§ People have seen it as a part of period and life decrease, then
their society’s culture, has a span die out quickly
connection with culture Scope and Cross over Single brand or
o Transitory increase or decrease Limitation many product with
§ Transitory increase or decrease companies and limited appeal,
of a particular idea, event, or entire areas of rapid
phenomenon technology, acceptance
§ Human population growth, expands with with weak
number of HIV-AIDS victims authenticity commitment
§ Potential to eventually slow and Effects Meet needs, Unexplainable
decline solve problems growth, appear
- Fad and issues, get and disappear
• Short-lived idea, temporary event stronger fast
• “Flash in the pan” Behavior Sustained – Intense
• Appeal is relatively small turns to
• Popularity declines and disappears lifestyle,
• Characteristics mindset, and
o Confined to particular segments in values
society Notion of The way we do New things we
o Trivial because of its short life Change things currently do
expectancy, prone to being fade when
outmoded novelty is gone
- Process of identifying a trend • Developing future scenarios
• Fringe – hype • Conscious of what is happening and
o An innovative idea develops into the wise enough to predict the future (based
market or become known on impact of trends)
• Trendy – peak - Brand loyalty
o Consumer and public awareness • Like classic as it is stable
grow • Can also go to microtrends as brands
o Fashion-forward brands and retailers develop their products
assess the viability of the concept • Ex. Apple products
o Test-market researches • Producers find what buyers want or
• Mainstream need in the products
o Conservative consumers join the • If the market doesn’t accept = fad
trend - Traditional market research
o Idea’s popularity and acceptance • Identify market changes over time
increase • Evaluate competition
o Growing demand • Understand target audience
o Fad
o Classic
§ A trend that stays the same but
there are no developments
§ Complacent
§ Its popularity is stable
§ Is always present
o Microtrends
§ There is development and it
starts the whole fringe-trendy-
mainstream cycle
§ Trend fragmentation
- Trendspotting
• Continuous cycle
• Begins with a trend gaining popularity
• Predicting trends before they enter
mainstream
• Analyzing whether or not a trend is
relevant to your business
• Discover what is happening right now
• How customers react and adapt
• Trendspotter – identifies trends before
they take off in the market, see trends
before they happen to get ahead of
competitors Critical Thinking
• Trendsetter – person who starts a trend - Asking questions, seeking answers
• Futurist – studies and predicts the future - Purposeful, organized process that we use
based on current trends to make sense of the world
• Cool-hunting – hunt for things that will - Higher-order thinking – consciously
become popular before they do controlled reflective thinking thought
- Trend Analysis - Reasonably reflective thinking that is
• Based on trendspotting focused on deciding what to believe or do
- Misconceptions
 • Critical thinking is nothing but the activity
of making criticism
• Critical thinking is nothing but logical
thinking
o False because we use the heart and
mind
• Critical thinking is nothing but the formal
study of some formal reasoning skills
that are hardly useful in dealing with
real-life issues
- Characteristics of Critical Thinking
• Concerned with correct reasoning (truth)
o One’s faulty reasoning is corrected
by critical thinking
o Criticism can be done without critical
thinking
• Deals with coherence of the structure of
reasoning and relevance of the content
of the reasoning
o Logical thinking is necessary –
concerned with coherence of
reasoning
o Determine whether content is true or
false
o Logical thinking is solely concerned
with correctness of the structure or
form of reasoning
o Critical thinking deals with structure
of reasoning and relevance or
appropriateness of content, truth
• Important in everyday decision-making
o Skill of evaluating arguments
o We always make decisions which
determine the courses of our action
and affect the quality of our life
• As good thinking
o Include other forms of critical
thinking
o Strategic thinking – what is most
appropriate to achieve a certain goal
o Other forms of critical thinking
§ Imagining
§ Doubting – Questioning
something
§ Recalling – Remembering
§ Analyzing
§ Creative or innovative thinking
§ Meditative thinking – Control
thoughts, acquire sense of inner
peace
§ Strategic thinking (Good
thinking)
§ Instinctive thinking – Abrupt
decision, think of situation
o Creative thinking
§ Innovation, new ideas, novel
approaches, fresh perspectives
§ Change traditional ways
o Critical thinking
§ Analyzing, evaluating, reasoning
§ Analyze or examine arguments
§ Assess reasons
o Both connect to problem solving and
decision making
- Thinking
• Purposeful, organized cognitive process
• Use to make sense of our world
- Critical Thinking
• Judgement, major decisions
• Orderly and logical thinking
• Needs facts, true statements
• We end with an accurate decision we
use in daily life
• Identify, analyze, and evaluate
arguments
• Wide range of cognitive and intellectual
skills
• Discover and overcome personal
prejudices and biases
• Formulate and present convincing
reasons in support of conclusions
• Make reasonable, intelligent decisions
about what to believe and what to do
Standards
Clarity Depth
Accuracy Breadth
Precision Logic
Relevance Fairness
- Core Critical Thinking Skills
1. Interpretation
o To comprehend and express
meanings
o Categorize, decode, significance,
clarify meaning
 2. Analysis Functional Attributes
o To identify inferential relationships Intuitive Strategic
among statements or beliefs intuitive analytical
o Examine ideas, identify arguments, practical theoretical
identify reasons and claims concrete abstract
3. Inference parallel sequential
o To identify and gather information heuristic rule-based
necessary in drawing reasonable holistic analytic
conclusions and forming conjectures independent of general linked to general
and hypotheses intelligence intelligence
o Questioning evidence, conjecturing independent of working limited by working
alternatives, drawing conclusions memory memory capacity
4. Evaluation
o To assess the credibility of (S1) Intuitive Thinking
statements and the logical strengths - Absence of logical thinking, which is why it
of the inferential relationships among is fast
them - Need experiences
o Assess credibility of claims, assess - Common sense
quality of arguments - From need of immediate response
5. Explanation - Heuristics
o To clearly and coherently present the
• Make decision without thinking
result of one’s reasoning
• Similarity Heuristic
o State result, justify procedures,
o Base impressions on the similarity of
present arguments
someone to a person you know
6. Self-regulation
o Compares the situation, person, or
o To self-consciously monitor, assess,
thing you don’t know about to
and correct one’s own reasoning
something similar and familiar
o Self-monitor, self-correct
o Becomes representative of what you
don’t know, you act based on it
Decision Making
o Depends on relevance of similarities
- System 1: Intuitive thinking and heuristics
o Book definition: assess probability
- System 2: Strategic analysis
based of a belief that what
- Decisions based on gathered information
happened to someone (similarity)
- Systems 1 and 2 – based on dual process
will happen to us as well
theory of cognition
• Availability Heuristic
o Base decisions on examples that
Mental Attributes
most readily come to mind
Intuitive Strategic
o Qualities of the first thing become
unconscious conscious
the basis instead of researching the
implicit explicit
other one
automatic controlled o Book definition/basis: A related story
low effort high effort or an experience that happened to
rapid slow us or someone close to us that we
experiential rational clearly remember will happen again
impulsive reflective o Judge based on similar events or
evolutionary old evolutionary recent examples
shared with animals uniquely human • Affect Heuristic
o Decide based one emotion
o “Just a feeling”
 o No objective evidences
o Gut feeling
o Book definition/basis: Immediate
positive or negative emotional
reaction to some idea, proposal,
person, object, etc.
• Satisfying Heuristic (Satisficing)
o Pick second choice if the first choice
is unavailable
o “It’s close enough”
o Regardless if there are better
options
o Satisfy and suffice
o Book definition: Stop deliberation
when we come to an alternative that
is good enough to satisfy our
objectives
o Temporizing – something is good
enough for now or the time being
• Simulation Heuristic
o One can simulate something better
or worse about an event
o May affect people differently
o Imagining various scenarios and the
likelihood of it to happen
• Risk-Aversion Heuristic
o Assess probabilities or make
decisions/judgements based on
what is certain is preferable to or is
more valuable than the uncertain
o “Sure thing” choices
• Loss-Aversion Heuristic
o Basis on avoiding losses are
preferable to making gains
o Giving more weight to
disadvantages than advantages
when making decisions or alternate
course of action
• Association Heuristic
o Basis of what a word or idea
reminds us or is related to in our
minds/subconscious
o Ex. Cancer is usually associated
with death
• Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
o First piece of information as a basis
for all subsequent decision-making
o Book definition/basis: a number or a
value as a starting point (serving as
the anchor) which we adjust to a
level we find acceptable
o Ex. Sales where buyers and sellers
negotiate with the prices
Heuristic Basis for Decision
Similarity - Similarity of one thing to another
(experiences, person, object, etc.)
- What happened to someone has
similarities with
Availability - A related story or experience that
clearly come to mind will happen again
- Quality of the first thing
Affect Gut feeling, gut reaction
Satisficing Good enough, what satisfies suffices
Simulation Imagining various scenarios and the
likelihood of it happening
Risk-Aversion Sure option
Loss-Aversion Status quo, avoid loss than make gain
Association Word association and the memories,
meaning, or expressions they trigger
Anchoring- - Use a value as a starting point or basis
Adjustment - First piece of information
(S2) Strategic Analysis
- Requires deliberate, abstract, and effortful
thinking
- Break down complex problem into parts
- Process
1. Identify the problem
2. Analyze the problem
3. Generate a solution
4. Implement the solution
5. Reflect on the outcomes
- Methods
• SWOT Analysis
o Strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats
o Internal-External Analysis
o Best combination of these factors =
one with most benefit
o Aid in areas of business and industry
o Also used in education, health
development, personal development
Strengths Advantages
Weaknesses Areas to improve, things to
avoid
Opportunities Possible growth or
development
Threats Obstacles, external factors
beyond one’s control

• PEST Analysis
o Political, economic, social,
technological
o The effects of relevant external
factors or macroenvironmental
factors on what is being decided on
o Used in identifying the opportunities
and threats (external factors) in
SWOT
- legal laws and practices
- how the government can
Political affect decision-making
- political stability and
government intervention
- financial resources, value of
money in relation to interest
Economic rates and inflation
- economic policies and
factors
- demographics (population
and distribution according to
Social income), culture
- behavior of a nation
(important determinant)
- current advancements like
the internet, computers,
Technological popular gadgets
- level of R&D, automation,
innovation, other factors
• Cost-benefit Analysis (CBA)
o Benefit-cost analysis
o Calculating the strengths (benefits,
advantages) and weaknesses
(costs, disadvantages) of each
alternative solution to a given
problem in monetary values
o Common unit of measurement
o Monetary value given to costs and
benefits – current value of money in
the market
o Value of future costs is translated to
current value
o Highest value of benefits = best
choice
o Used to make rational decisions
o Process
1. Define the framework for the
analysis
2. Identity and classify costs and
benefits
3. Drawing a timeline for expected
costs and revenue
4. Monetize costs and benefits
5. Discount costs and benefits to
obtain present values
6. Calculate net present values
• Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA)
o Similar to CBA, but not all benefits
and costs are measured in monetary
terms
o Values in terms of their effectiveness
o Brings together information on an
intervention’s cost with an estimate
of the outcomes or impact that it
achieves
o Effectiveness
§ Utility
§ Value of satisfying one’s interest
and preferences
§ Quality-adjusted life years
(QALY) – improvement of quality
of life given the number of years
§ Performance
o Greatest efficiency with least costs =
best decision
o Used for other contexts like health
services
• Subjective Expected Utility Analysis
(SEU)
o Attractiveness of an economic
opportunity as perceived by a
decision-maker in the presence of
risk
o Examined in Decision Theory
o Hypothetical value
 o Computed by multiplying the unity
value by the probability of
occurrence
o Best decision = maximizes SEU
o Utility or utility value
§ Value of an option or alternative
§ Degree in which the outcome of
the option promotes the interest
or satisfies the preferences of
the decision-maker
§ Positive or negative
§ Positive if it satisfies preference
or interest, if not then negative
§ Expected because of the
uncertainty of the occurrence of
the outcome of an option
§ Expected utility – subjective

Difficult to Decide?
à Requires risk taking and lose freedom of control
(uncertainty)
à Core Values conflict (balance of emotion and
intellect)
à Unclear vision-mission, objectives, goals
à Lack of self-knowledge
à Apathy

Tips on Decision Making

1. Best decision under the circumstance
2. Break down the decision by the core values
3. Use values as guiding principles
4. Balance emotional and intellectual variables
5. Expand your horizon
6. Use quadrant of decision