Statistics and

TYPE I AND TYPE II ERROR

probability
-Sir Rain Vicente

OBJECTIVES:
By the end of the lesson, the students will be able to:

➢ understand the concept of Type I and Type II errors; and

➢ connect error to the process of hypothesis testing

DISCUSSION

When you make decisions in real life, you usually associate them with probability values. For
example, when you buy a lottery ticket, you hope for a 100% win. Of course, you do not look forward to a
loss. In statistical inference, you also make statements of probability when you decide about the null
hypothesis.

In hypothesis testing, you make decisions about the null hypothesis. Of course, there are risks
when we make decisions. When we conduct a hypothesis test, there are four possible outcomes. The
following decision grid shows these four outcomes. Again, note that the decision is focused on the null
hypotheses.

The Four Possible Outcomes in Decision-Making

Decisions about the 𝑯𝟎

Do not Reject 𝑯𝟎
Reject
(or Accept 𝑯𝟎 )
𝑯𝟎 is true. Type I error Correct decision
Reality
𝑯𝟎 is false. Correct decision Type II error

If the null hypothesis is true and accepted, or it is false and rejected, the decision is correct. If
the null hypothesis is true and rejected, the decision is incorrect and this is a Type I error. If the null
hypothesis is false and accepted the decision is incorrect and this is a Type II error.

In an ideal situation, there is no error when you accept the truth and reject what is false.

Study the given solve examples on understanding errors.

EXAMPLE 1: Maria’s Age

Maria insists that she is 30 years old when, in fact, she is 32 years old. What error is Maria
committing?

Solution:

Maria is rejecting the truth. She is committing a Type I error.

EXAMPLE 2: Stephen’s Hairline

1|Module 2: Explor ing Mor e Elements of Hypothesis Testing

 Stephen says that he is not bald. His hairline is just receding. Is he committing an error? Of so,
what type of error?

Solution:

Yes. A receding hairline indicates balding. This is Type I error. Stephen action may be find
remedial measures to stop falling hair.

EXAMPLE 3: Monkey-Eating Eagle Hunt

A man plans to go hunting the Philippine monkey-eating eagle believing that it is a proof of his
mettle. What type of error is this?

Solution:

Hunting the Philippine eagle is prohibited by law. Thus, it is not a good sport. It is a Type II error.
Since hunting in the Philippine monkey-eating eagle is against the law, the man may find himself in jail if
he goes out of his way hunting endangered species.

EXAMPLE 4: You decide to get tested for COVID-19 based on mild symptoms. There are two errors
that could potentially occur:

• Type I error (false positive): the test result says you have coronavirus, but you actually don’t.

Ho: You don’t have coronavirus (Rejected but true)

Ha: You have coronavirus

• Type II error (false negative): the test result says you don’t have coronavirus, but you actually
do.

Ho: You don’t have coronavirus (Accepted but false)

Ha: You have coronavirus

2|Module 2: Explor ing Mor e Elements of Hypothesis Testing