TIN-503

Pemodelan dan Analisis Sistem

Pemodelan Sistem
(System Modelling)

Jonrinaldi, Ph.D, IPM

System in a decision making context

n A system is an organised set of

components and relationships that do
something that none of the components
can do alone.
n We use system models as a convenient
way to view something in order to aid
decision making (to solve a problem).
System in a decision making context

n A System is described by:

n Observer: Who is interested in the system? Decision maker
n Purpose: Why define the system? Improve, output of interest
n Environment: outside the system. Define the system boundary
n Inputs: Affect the system but are not affected by it. Can be
controllable or uncontrollable. Decision variables/parameters
n Outputs: Are affected by the system. These are of interest to
the observer. Include measure of success
n Components: Both affect and are affected by the system.
n Relationship/transformation process: Between system
inputs, outputs and components.
Pemodelan Sistem (Systems Modeling)

n To apply the systems concept and thinking

discussed to a real life problematic
situation and define a relevant system for
it
q relevant for the analysis of a particular issue
about the problematic situation
n The process of conceptualizing a system
of interest is commonly referred as
systems modeling
Metodologi/ Tahapan Pemodelan Sistem
Figure 5-1: OR/MS methodology

F 1 FORWARD LINKAGES
Summarizing
O
problem
R
situation
M
U Identifying 2
L problem for
A analysis
T 3
Decribing
I
relevant PROJECT PROPOSAL
O
system
N
Building a 4
mathematical
1
model
M Finding 5
O preferred
D solution
E 6
L Validation &
I performance
N testing
G 7
Analyzing
sensitivity PROJECT REPORT
of solution
Planning 8
I Implementatio
M n
P
Establishing 9
L
E control over
M solution
E 10
N Implementing DOCUMENTATION &
T solution USER'S MANUAL
A
11
T Following up
O solution use SOLUTION AUDIT
N

BACKWARD LINKAGES
A Situation Summary

n The first step when approaching a problem

situation is to familiarize yourself with
q the situation
q Its processes and structures
q The people involved
q Their aims and desires
q Relationship between them
q The hierarchy or power structure
q The resources available
q The data sources and information
A Situation Summary

n A rich picture is an effective tool to depict a

complex situation
n What is a rich picture? It is a cartoon-like
summary of everything
n A rich picture –diagram or concept –is not a
system description
n Only one mode (way) of making a situation
summary.
Guideline For Drawing
A Rich Picture Diagram

n Elements of structure
q All aspects or components of the situation that
are relatively stable –physical aspects and
logical aspects
n Elements of process
q Aspects of the situation that undergo change
n Relationship between structure and
process and between processes
Rich Picture Diagram
n For human activity systems:
A rich picture should be included hard facts and soft
facts.
n The rich picture is never finished
n Common mistake:
Each item pictured needs to be connected one or
more other items (Note that rich picture is not a
system description)
n The uses of rich picture:
An ideal vehicle for communicating with other people
about complex and problematic situation
The Uses of Rich Pictures
n An ideal vehicle for communicating about
complex and problematic situation.
n Interconnections, relationships, and direct
and indirect consequences become more
clearly visible (misunderstanding is
reduced).
n To identify the people involved (or
concerned) –owner, decision maker, user,
and problem solver.
n To gain a better understanding of a
complex situation as a whole.
Contoh Rich Pictures :
Kasus LOD-Lubricating Oil Division
-Divisi dari Perusahaan minyak multi nasional
- Memproduksi 400 tipe minyak pelumas untuk
otomotif dan industri untuk lebih 1000 konsumen
yang disimpan di Gudang LOD
- Target 24 turnover per tahun tidak tercapai,
dimana realisasi hanya 12 per tahun (Turnover
inventori sama dengan ratio penjualan terhadap
nilai produk dalam inventori)
PROBLEM

n A Problem exists when what is happening

(current state) differs from what should
happen (desire state)
n Four Elements of a problem (decision
maker, objective, performance measure,
decision variables)
n Problem statement
Definition of A Problem

n There must be an individual (or a group of

individuals), referred as the decision
maker who:
q Is dissatisfied with the current state of affairs
q Knows when goals have been achieved
q Has control over aspects of problem situation
that affect the extent to which goals can be
achieved
Four Elements of A Problem

n The decision maker

n The decision maker’s objective
n The performance measure for assessing
how well the objectives have been
achieved
n Alternative courses of action or decision
variables for achieving the objectives
THE SYSTEM PERSPECTIVE

n Refine our understanding of the problem

n Problem do not exist in a vacuum
n The problem solver must understand how
the problem fits into its environment
n We must describe the system within
which it occurs
Relevant System

n Describe a relevant system for the

problem
n A system description identifies all relevant
components –including structural and
process relationships
n All important structural and process
relationships need to be considered and
represented in the model.
DESCRIBING
RELEVANT SYSTEM
n Not all features of the real world are
relevant to the problem
n A partial description is often adequate
(called the system characterization)
n Identifying system aspects (factors) -use
the system structure
(input;transformation;output)
DESCRIBING
RELEVANT SYSTEM
n Influence diagram depicts the influence
relationships
q between input into a system and its
components
q between the components of the system
q between the components and outputs of the
system
Approaches for describing
a relevant system
n A system description consists in specifying
q the transformation process(es) of the system
q the boundary of the system
q the components and subsystems and the structure
q the inputs and the outputs (desired & undesired
outputs)
n Two Approaches
q Structural Approach
q Process Approach
Structural Approach

n A typical structure usually found for situation

considered, e.g., a waiting line structure.
q Component (customer);Structure of the system
n The situation is well understood
n Using a known basic structure allows fast
progress toward a complete system
description
Process Approach
n No assumption about the possible system
structure
n The observed processes and relationships
are used to discover a good structure
n A good starting point is to determine from
whose standpoint to view the system and
then define the prime transformation process.
n Rules help in identifying the components,
inputs (controllable and uncontrollable) and
outputs of the system
Influence Diagrams
n Insightful for bringing out the transformation
process of the system
q in term of the structural and causal relationships
between systems components.
n Depicts the influence relationship
q Between the inputs into a system and its
component
q Between the component of the system, and

q Between the component and the outputs of the

system, including performance measures
(these influence relationship can usually be
measured in quantitative terms)
Influence Diagram
n Influence diagram shows:
q How the control inputs and other inputs affect the
system variables for various system components,
and
q How these in turn affect the system outputs, in
particular the performance outputs.
n Note: the easiest approach to draw an
influence diagram is to go from control and
other inputs via state variables to system
outputs in a logical top-down sequence.
Contoh: LOD
n The decision maker: the LOD manager
n The objective: keeping the cost of the LOD’s
operation as low as possible, subject to
maintaining the same level of customer
service.
n The performance measure: the total
operating cost of the LOD
n Alternative courses of action: the size of
stock replenishment batches and cutoff point
for classifying customer orders as big or small.
Relevant system of LOD

n The widest system: the company as a

whole
n The refinery: one of its subsystem
n The LOD: a subsystem of the refinery
system
n Within LOD system:
q the production/inventory control operation form
one of its major subsystem (i.e. the narrow
system of interest)
Influence diagram of LOD
System Models

n The activity of building a model is referred

to as systems modeling.
n A model may be iconic, symbolic, or
analogous
n Symbolic Models:
q Representation of the relationships between
various entities or concept by means of
symbols.
MATHEMATICAL MODELING

n A mathematical model expresses, in

quantitative terms, the relationships
between the various components -as
defined in the relevant system
n Structure of mathematical model -needs
mathematical formulation (deterministic-
stochastic math formulation)
Mathematical Models

n Relationships between various entities are

expressed in the form of mathematical
expressions – e.g. function,equation, and
inequalities
n Example –Case Study C
Components of a Model
n Performance measure
n Uncontrollable Inputs
n Parameters
n Controllable Inputs:
q The collection of all possible courses of action you might take
n Interaction among These Components
q These are logical, and mathematical function representing
the cause-and -effect relationships among inputs, parameters,
and the outcome.
q There are also set of constraints which apply to each of these
n Actions
ANALYSIS OF MODEL

n Carry out an analysis of the model

(formulation) using appropriate
mathematical techniques
n Type of analysis
q Analytical Method
q Computational Method
n Type of solution
q optimal; sub-optimal; estimates; approximation
MODEL TESTING and
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
n Internal Validity
n External Validity
n Sensitivity Analysis
q How does the optimal solution respond to
changes in inputs parameters
q What is the error, in term of benefits or
saving, incurred for using the model with
wrong values for input parameters
IMPLEMENTATION OF
SOLUTION
n To implement the solution it is necessary
to change some systems
n To be a successful problem solver, system
change must be instituted
n People are notoriously resistant to
change
n Managers would rather live with a problem
they cannot solve than accept a solution
they cannot understand (Gene Woolsey)