Dr Muhammad Ali Abro 23EMBA061 Epidemiology

Exercise 2

“Changes in the prevalence of infectious diseases before and after the COVID-19
pandemic in Pakistan”

A study conducted at the National Institute of Health in Pakistan aimed to see how COVID-
19 affected the number of infectious diseases in the country. They looked at data from
January 2019 to December 2022 and found some interesting changes. During the pandemic
(2019 to 2020), there was a 28% decrease in suspected cases of 20 infectious diseases. This
was mainly because people were wearing masks, washing hands, and staying home due to
COVID-19. However, the study noticed that three diseases—typhoid, hepatitis, and HIV—
increased; possibly because resources were focused on COVID-19 and some cases were not
reported. After the pandemic, things changed. From 2021 to 2022, there was a huge 259.4%
increase in reported cases. Five diseases—Mumps, malaria, polio, influenza, and diphtheria
—saw big increases ranging from 354% to 2656%. This was because of extreme flooding in
2022, which led to more diseases carried by insects. Also, disruptions in getting vaccines
during both COVID-19 and the flooding caused more diseases that vaccines can prevent. The
study says that the post-pandemic increase happened because some cases weren't reported
during the pandemic; resources were focused on COVID-19, and natural disasters like
flooding in 2022 made things worse. The unexpected rise in diseases that vaccines can
prevent, despite the expected increase in insect-borne diseases after the flooding, makes the
situation even more complicated. The study points out that COVID-19 and changes in the
weather are making it hard to control infectious diseases in Pakistan. It says we need to watch
for diseases carefully, make sure many people get vaccines, and have a good plan for dealing
with problems, especially in places where natural disasters can happen. The study shows that
we need to use our resources well, even when things are tough during a pandemic.

2. Role of Herd immunity in controlling Polio in Pakistan

Herd immunity is super important in stopping polio in Pakistan because it stops the poliovirus
from spreading in communities. This happens when a lot of people in the population become
immune to the virus, either from getting vaccinated or having had the virus before. In
Pakistan, we are trying to reach herd immunity mainly through big vaccination campaigns.
But there are some problems. Some people are unsure about vaccines, it's hard to reach places
far away, and there are worries about safety, which makes it tough to vaccinate everyone. To
really get herd immunity, a big chunk of the population, ideally more than 90%, needs to get
vaccinated. But in Pakistan, not enough people are getting vaccinated, so the poliovirus is
still around. Fixing these issues needs a bunch of different things. People need to know the
truth about vaccines, that they're safe and important. It's also important to make it easier for
people in far-off places to get vaccinated, and to make sure the healthcare workers giving
vaccines are safe too. Getting and keeping herd immunity against polio in Pakistan isn't just
important for the country but for the whole world. To make this happen, we need to keep
working hard, talk to people in the right way, and use smart plans to overcome the problems
and make sure lots of people get vaccinated, so we can stop the poliovirus from spreading.