TOPIC TEST

AS and A-level
FURTHER MATHS
Confidence intervals and errors in hypothesis testing

Specification content coverage: SC1, SH1, SH2, SH3

In this test you will be assessed on:

 understanding Type I and Type II errors
 calculating the probability of making Type I errors from tests based on a Poisson or binomial
distribution
 constructing symmetric confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with known
variance
 constructing symmetric confidence intervals from large samples, of the mean of a normal
distribution with unknown variance
 making inferences from constructed or given confidence intervals.

The test comprises two sections. The questions in section A will test you on the basics of the topic.
Those in section B require a bit more thinking.
 Section A: The basics

1 A random sample of size 64 is taken from a normal distribution with mean 120 and
variance 32.
What is the value of the standard error?
Circle your answer.

1 2 2
8 2
2 4 2

[1 mark]

2 The contents of a bag of sugar produced by a factory, X, are normally distributed

with mean µ grams and standard deviation 15 grams.
A random sample of 10 bags is selected and their contents weighed. The results
were:
1016 996 1024 1010 1012 992 1018 1007 1029 1036

2 (a) Calculate a symmetric 99% confidence interval for µ giving your answers to the
nearest kg.
[4 marks]

2 (b) Comment on the claim that the mean amount of sugar the machines in the factory
dispense into each bag is greater than 1kg.
Justify your answer.

[1 mark]

3 A random variable X has a normal distribution with mean µ and standard deviation
σ
The interval (62.6 , 67.2) is a 90% confidence interval for µ based upon a random
sample of size 16.

3 (a) Find the value of σ correct to three significant figures.

[3 marks]

3 (b) Determine the minimum size sample required for the width of the confidence
interval to be less than 1 unit wide.
[3 marks]

AQA Education (AQA) is a registered charity (number 1073334) and a company limited by guarantee registered in 2 of 4
England and Wales (number 3644723). Our registered address is AQA, Devas Street, Manchester M15 6EX.
 4 It is suggested that the proportion of over-65s who own a PC is 65%.
To investigate this claim, a random sample of 20 over-65s is selected.
A test at the 10% level of
H0: p = 0.65
H1: p > 0.65
is carried out.

4 (a) State, in context, the meaning of a Type II error for this test.

[1 mark]

4 (b) Find the probability of making a Type I error.

[4 marks]

Section B: A bit more thinking

5 Dev claims that his kitchen oven is faulty. To test this claim he uses a thermometer
to check the oven temperature when it is set to 160ºC.
He repeats the experiment 30 times and the temperatures recorded are denoted
by the random variable T.
It is given that
 t  4866
 t  789526
2

5 (a) (i) Find the sample mean, t and the sample standard deviation s.

3 marks]

5 (a) (ii) Explain why Dev uses a sample of size 30.

[2 marks]

5 (b) (i) Construct a symmetric 95% confidence interval for the mean temperature of the
oven when it is set to 160ºC. Give your limits to one decimal place.

[3 marks]

5 (b) (ii) Comment on whether Dev’s claim about his oven being faulty is correct.
Justify your answer.

[1 mark]

AQA Education (AQA) is a registered charity (number 1073334) and a company limited by guarantee registered in 3 of 4
England and Wales (number 3644723). Our registered address is AQA, Devas Street, Manchester M15 6EX.
 6 A golfer correctly calculates a 95% confidence interval for the mean number of
shots she takes per round on her local course as (79.0, 87.0), based upon a
random sample of 30 rounds.
The golfer then has some lessons with a professional player and correctly
calculates a new 95% confidence interval for the mean number of shots per round
as (76.2, 80.2), again based upon 30 rounds.

6 (a) (i) State the sample mean calculated for each confidence interval.

[1 mark]

6 (a) (ii) Explain which sample had the largest standard deviation.
Justify your answer

[2 marks]

6 (b) The golfer makes two claims based upon the confidence intervals.
Claim 1: The mean number of shots after lessons is 80
Claim 2: The mean number of shots per round after lessons is less than the mean
number of shots per round before the lessons.

6 (b) (i) State whether you agree with claim 1.

Justify your answer.

[1 mark]

6 (b) (ii) State whether you agree with claim 2.

Justify your answer.

[2 marks]

AQA Education (AQA) is a registered charity (number 1073334) and a company limited by guarantee registered in 4 of 4
England and Wales (number 3644723). Our registered address is AQA, Devas Street, Manchester M15 6EX.