energies
Article
Designing Sustainable Domestic Electricity Supply from
Renewable Energy Mixes: Application to Java and
Bali, Indonesia
Diyono Diyono 1 , Hans Cappon 2 , Katarzyna Kujawa-Roeleveld 2 and Karel J. Keesman 1, *
Citation: Diyono, D.; Cappon, H.;
Kujawa-Roeleveld, K.; Keesman, K.J.
Designing Sustainable Domestic
Electricity Supply from Renewable
Energy Mixes: Application to Java
and Bali, Indonesia. Energies 2023, 16,
7461. https://doi.org/10.3390/
en16227461
Academic Editor: Alan Brent
Received: 27 September 2023
Revised: 27 October 2023
Accepted: 3 November 2023
Published: 7 November 2023
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Energies 2023, 16, 7461. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16227461
1 Mathematical and Statistical Methods—Biometris, Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 16,
6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands; diyono.diyono@wur.nl
2 Environmental Technology, Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 17, 6700 AA Wageningen,
The Netherlands; hans.cappon@wur.nl (H.C.); katarzyna.kujawa@wur.nl (K.K.-R.)
* Correspondence: karel.keesman@wur.nl
Abstract: Many countries, including Indonesia, have abundant renewable energy sources (RES),
but the share of RES in the current national energy supply is still insignificant. The study aimed to
investigate and provide the most feasible combinations of RES that meet domestic electricity demand.
For Java and Bali, Indonesia, initially, 35 scenarios, given 4 primary RES (solar, wind, hydropower,
geothermal) and municipal solid waste, were assessed based on economic and environmental indica-
tors. This explorative data-driven study found that the existing capacity could only meet 51% of the
electricity demand. However, the proposed energy mixes could cover 100% of the electricity demand
in 2020 with a required capacity of 8.32–19.10 GW, varying on each scenario. The feasible energy
mixes can reduce CO2 emissions by 90–94% compared to a fossil energy mix with gas-fired power
plants. The installation, and operation and maintenance costs per life cycle can range from 29–50 and
4–16 billion dollars. The wind-based energy mix, with installed capacities of geothermal (1.16 GW),
hydropower (2.87 GW), solar (0.003 GW) and municipal solid waste (0.18 GW) in 2020, showed the
highest return on investment (139% ROI) and smallest CO2 emission with highest CO2 reduction
(94%). This study provides a scientific method of selecting, projecting, and evaluating viable RES
combinations for generating electricity without using fossil fuels.
Keywords: renewable energy sources (RES); domestic electricity; energy mix; energy systems mod-
elling; Java-Bali power systems
1. Introduction
The Paris Agreement has motivated many countries, including Indonesia, to alter their
energy policies for decarbonization. Renewable energy sources can significantly reduce
global greenhouse gas emissions [1]. It will be the critical strategy for sustainable energy
generation [2], which supports the 7th sustainable development goal (SDG) of The United
Nations: affordable and clean energy. Therefore, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral
Resource (ESDM) of the Indonesian government wants to increase the share of energy
generated from renewable energy sources (RES) to 23% and 31% sustainable energy supply
in 2025 and 2030, respectively [3].
However, these targets are currently still far from being reached. The primary energy
supply in 2020 was 2538 TWh, but only 14.45% thereof was produced from renewables (see
Table 1) [4]. Coal was dominant among the other sources, with 37.09%. Also, the second
and third contributors to the national supply were still fossil, namely, oil (31.65%) and
gas (16.82%). Thus, this table indicates that the contribution of renewables to the annual
national supply needs to be raised.
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 2 of 19

Table 1. The primary energy supply of Indonesia in 2020 [4].

Source BOE 1 % TWh

Coal 553,923,901 37.09 941.34
Oil 472,707,726 31.65 803.32
Gas 251,143,838 16.82 426.80
Hydropower 45,457,285 3.04 77.25
Geothermal 28,909,243 1.94 49.13
Solar PV and Solar PP 725,166 0.05 1.23
Wind 1,164,203 0.08 1.98
Other Renewables 30,431,306 2.04 51.72
Biomass 53,365,255 3.57 90.69
Biofuels 55,515,900 3.72 94.34
Biogas 176,604 0.01 0.30
Total 1,493,520,427 100 2538.10
Non-renewables 85.55 2171.46
Renewables 14.45 366.64
1 BOE: Barrel of Oil Equivalent.

The National Energy Council of Indonesia (DEN) reported in 2020 that the installed
capacity of RES was only 10.46 GW, while the potential was estimated to be 423.8 GW (see
Table 2) [5]. This shows that the expansion of renewable energy generation seems feasible
because only around 2.5% of all RES potential is currently available as installed capacity.
Solar dominated the RES potential, yet only 0.15 of 207.8 GW of solar potential has so far
been exploited.

Table 2. Renewable energy generation in Indonesia in 2020.

Renewables Potential (GW) Installed Capacity (GW) % of Potential Installed

Hydropower 94.3 6.12 6.49
Solar 207.8 0.15 0.07
Wind 60.6 0.15 0.25
Bioenergy 32.6 1.90 5.84
Geothermal 28.5 2.13 7.48
Total 423.8 10.46 2.47

In many countries, studies have investigated the penetration of RES in the national
energy supply [2,6–11]. Some of these still included fossil fuels in the energy mix [2,12].
Meanwhile, others [7–9] investigated the integration between a renewable energy mix
and energy storage in a single scenario with a few specific RES, for instance, using only
hydropower, solar and wind. The existing literature mostly focused on assessing the current
state of renewable energy generation in their countries to match the energy demand. None
of the studies presented a scientific method for the exploration, selection, projection, and
evaluation of the available RES in energy mixes. This study provides the scientific approach
that was unavailable in the prior literature, taking Indonesia as a case study to provide a
generic approach for any areas with different scales worldwide.
In several studies from Indonesian authorities, such as ESDM, DEN and a state-owned
enterprise for electricity (PLN), the current and projected renewable energy generation in
Indonesia until 2030 were discussed. However, fossil energy sources dominated the energy
share, and RES remained complementary. Next, other studies [12–15] showed that solar
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 3 of 19

Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 19

energy could play a pivotal role in Indonesia by maintaining the security of the energy
supply. However, several drawbacks were also found, such as the need for large areas for
placing the photovoltaic
areas for placing the photovoltaic (PV) modules,
(PV) modules, which maymay
which result in inefficiencies
result in inefficienciesdue duetotosevere
severe overproduction. Thus, using RES and empowering the independence of specificRES is
overproduction. Thus, using RES and empowering the independence of specific
vital.
RES is vital.
Thus,
Thus, even
even though
though related
related research,
research, both scientific
both scientific and governmental
and governmental studies,
studies, are al- are
already
ready available,
available, the the aforementioned
aforementioned studies
studies still included
still included fossil fossil fuels
fuels in in energy
their their energy
mixes.They
mixes. They were
were limited
limited to only
to only existing
existing scenarios
scenarios and focused
and focused on a specific
on a specific RES. ToRES. To
overcome
overcomethe thelimitations
limitations of the preceding
of the preceding studies, this study
studies, provides
this study an explorative
provides data- data-
an explorative
driven
drivenapproach
approachtotofind findfeasible
feasible renewable-based
renewable-based energy
energy mixes
mixesand andexplores extremes
explores extremesin in the
the solution
solution space.
space. ForFor thispurpose,
this purpose,this thisstudy
studyinvolved
involved three
three categories
categories of key perfor-
performance
mance indicators
indicators (KPIs), (KPIs),
namely namely economic
economic and environmental,
and environmental, to provide
to provide a clear
a clear over- to the
overview
view to the stakeholders
stakeholders about their about their outcomes
policy’s policy’s outcomes and development
and development strategies.
strategies.
This
Thisresearch
research aimed
aimed to investigate
to investigate andandpropose
proposefeasible mixesmixes
feasible that only
thatuse
only RES.
useThe
RES. The
desired
desired outcome of this research is a goal-driven set of sustainable energy mixestotobe
outcome of this research is a goal-driven set of sustainable energy mixes be used
used in Java
in Java andand Bali,Bali, Indonesia,
Indonesia, andand possiblyother
possibly otherareas,
areas, cities
cities or
or regions
regions worldwide.
worldwide. The
The hourly
hourly domestic
domestic electricitydemand
electricity demandfor for2020
2020isisused
used asas the
the electricity
electricity demand,
demand,ac- account-
counting for 72.76 TWh (see Supplementary Materials S1). The electricity demand projec-
ing for 72.76 TWh (see Supplementary Materials S1). The electricity demand projection
tion complements this base electricity demand to incorporate future developments such
complements this base electricity demand to incorporate future developments such as the
as the electrification of Indonesian society and population growth up to 2050.
electrification of Indonesian society and population growth up to 2050.
Our explorative data-driven study focuses on electricity demand and generation on
Our explorative data-driven study focuses on electricity demand and generation
both islands as the target population. Electricity generation is a critical source of air pol-
on both islands as the target population. Electricity generation is a critical source of
lution [16]. Shifting to renewable energy is valuable as it will reduce greenhouse gas emis-
air pollution
sions and ensure [16]. Shifting
reliable, to renewable
timely, energy is
and cost-efficient valuable
energy as it [17].
delivery will reduce greenhouse
These islands
gas emissions and ensure reliable, timely, and cost-efficient
have seven provinces: Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, DI Yogya- energy delivery [17]. These
karta, and Bali. The target population was chosen since the Java and Bali grids are in East
islands have seven provinces: Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, one Java,
distribution area, supplying 76% of the national electricity consumption, the highest of grids
DI Yogyakarta, and Bali. The target population was chosen since the Java and Bali
areseven
the in one distribution
distribution linesarea,
[12].supplying
In addition,76% of the
around national
56.1% of theelectricity
Indonesianconsumption,
population the
highest of the seven distribution lines [12]. In addition,
inhabits Java Island, with electricity and cooking as the significant household energyaround 56.1% of the Indonesian
de-
population
mands [18]. inhabits Java Island, with electricity and cooking as the significant household
energy demands [18].
2. Methodology
2. Methodology
2.1. Design Process and Evaluation
2.1. Design Process and Evaluation
The system configuration is shown in Figure 1, consisting of an energy grid with
storageThe systemhydro
(pumped configuration is battery),
storage and shown in Figure 1,loads
residential consisting of an energy
and electricity grid with
generation
storage
from (pumped
municipal hydro
solid wastestorage
(MSW)andandbattery),
four RES:residential loads
solar, wind, and electricity
geothermal generation
and hydro
from municipal solid waste (MSW) and four RES: solar, wind, geothermal and hydro power.
power.

Figure
Figure1.1.System configuration
System of the
configuration energy
of the mix mix
energy in this
in study.
this study.
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 4 of 19

Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 19

Initially, the design space was explored using a fixed number of scenarios, using hourly
demand and weather
Initially, the designdataspace
fromwas 2020explored
to investigate
using athe maximum
fixed number of coverage
scenarios,of different
using
combinations
hourly demand fromandthe current
weather datapotential
from 2020 of toallinvestigate
RES. The the 32 (25 ) scenarios
firstmaximum coverage followed
of dif-
from a full
ferent factorial design
combinations from of thefive energy
current sources
potential ofeach withThe
all RES. twofirst
levels,
32 (2being the currently
5) scenarios fol-
installed capacity and the maximum potential capacity.
lowed from a full factorial design of five energy sources each with two levels, being the
Then, the
currently residential
installed electricity
capacity and the demand
maximum forpotential
each year from 2020 to 2050 was estimated
capacity.
based on a growth
Then, prognosis
the residential made by
electricity the grid
demand foroperator.
each yearThis fromyearly
2020 togrowth
2050 wasin demand
esti-
matedtobased
needed on a growthby
be compensated prognosis
extending made by the grid
the capacity operator.RES.
of installed ThisThe
yearly growth
baseline in
scenario
demand
was formed needed
usingtothe be existing
compensated RES by extending
capacity the capacity
in 2020. A capacityof installed RES.was
extension Therequired
base-
line scenario
when was formed
the electricity using by
generation the RES
existing
could RESnot capacity
reach in 100%2020.
ofAthecapacity
yearlyextension
demand in
was
the required
period when theThe
2020–2050. electricity
capacity generation
extension bycould
RES could not reach
primarily 100% ofby
be realized theextending
yearly
demand
the capacity in of
theanperiod 2020–2050.
individual RES Theup tocapacity extensionpotential.
its maximum could primarily
If that be realized
turned outbyto be
extending the
insufficient, the capacity
capacityof ofan theindividual
next RESRES wasup to its maximum potential. If that turned
extended.
outFinally,
to be insufficient,
each KPIthe wascapacity of theafter
calculated next RES
meetingwas extended.
100% of the demand so that each
scenario would have different values for the KPIs.100%
Finally, each KPI was calculated after meeting The of setthe
of demand
feasible so that each energy
renewable sce-
nario would have different values for the KPIs. The set of feasible
mixes was ultimately defined by assessing and comparing all KPIs. After that, based on the renewable energy mixes
was ultimately defined by assessing and comparing all KPIs. After that, based on the KPIs,
KPIs, the most feasible mix was further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis with rather
the most feasible mix was further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis with rather ex-
extreme weather conditions corresponding to global warming: the solar irradiation was set
treme weather conditions corresponding to global warming: the solar irradiation was set
to 10% higher, and wind speed was reduced by 10%. Furthermore, the effect of modifying
to 10% higher, and wind speed was reduced by 10%. Furthermore, the effect of modifying
the significant RES proportion in the most feasible mix by −10% wind energy capacity was
the significant RES proportion in the most feasible mix by −10% wind energy capacity was
evaluated, while another RES, basically solar and geothermal energy, within the energy
evaluated, while another RES, basically solar and geothermal energy, within the energy
mix
mixcompensated
compensated for thisreduction.
for this reduction.Extension
Extension of municipal
of municipal solidsolid
waste,waste, e.g., through
e.g., through un-
unsustainable import of MSW from other islands, was excluded
sustainable import of MSW from other islands, was excluded in this analysis and thus in this analysis and thethus
the
amount of MSW was fixed. Also, extension of the hydropower energy capacity to com- to
amount of MSW was fixed. Also, extension of the hydropower energy capacity
compensate
pensate forfor a reduction
a reduction in in wind
wind energy
energy capacity
capacity waswas excluded,
excluded, as as hydropower
hydropower would
would
preferably be used to introduce flexibility through, e.g., pumped
preferably be used to introduce flexibility through, e.g., pumped hydro energy storage hydro energy storage
(PHES)
(PHES)systems.
systems.The The evaluation processusing
evaluation process usingscenarios,
scenarios,futurefuture projections
projections andand KPIs
KPIs is is
outlined in Figure
outlined in Figure 2. 2.

Figure
Figure 2. 2.The
Theflowchart
flowchartof
ofthe
the systematic
systematic approach
approachin
inthis
thisstudy.
study.

Thefollowing
The followingsections
sections characterize
characterize the
thecase
caseofofJava
Javaand
andBali concerning
Bali residential
concerning residential
energy
energy demand,projected
demand, projectedfuture
future use
use and RES
RES availability
availabilityand
andpotential.
potential.

2.2. Residential Energy Demand

In this research, the hourly electrical demand for 2020 (72.76 TWh) was derived
from the annual report of PLN [19], as shown in Figure 3. The total household electricity
 Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 19
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 19

Energies 2023, 16, 7461 5 of 19

2.2. Residential Energy Demand
2.2. Residential Energythe
In this research, Demand
hourly electrical demand for 2020 (72.76 TWh) was derived from
the annual report of the
In this research, PLN [19], as
hourly shown demand
electrical in Figurefor
3.2020
The (72.76
total household
TWh) was electricity de-
derived from
demand on Java and Bali is higher during the night than during the day, mainly due to air
mand
the on Java
annual andof
report Bali is higher
PLN [19], asduring
shownthein night
Figurethan during
3. The totalthe day, mainly
household due tode-
electricity air
conditioning.
conditioning.
mand on Java and Bali is higher during the night than during the day, mainly due to air
conditioning.
35,000
30,000
35,000

(MW)
25,000
30,000
(MW) 20,000
25,000
LoadLoad

15,000
20,000
10,000
15,000
5,000
10,000
0
5,000
0

Figure3.
Figure 3. Typical
Typical electricity
electricity demand
demandininhouseholds
householdsinin
Indonesia in 2020
Indonesia [12].
in 2020 [12].
Figure 3. Typical electricity demand in households in Indonesia in 2020 [12].
In their
In their annual
annual plan,
plan, PLN PLNforecasted
forecastedthatthat the
theelectricity demand
electricity demand in Indonesia will will
in Indonesia
almostIn double
their within
annual a
plan, decade,
PLN from 241
forecasted TWh
that in
the 2021 to around
electricity 400
demand
almost double within a decade, from 241 TWh in 2021 to around 400 TWh in 2030. This TWh
in in 2030.
Indonesia This
will
projection
almost
projection was within
double
was based on
based several
aondecade, key
severalfromkeyfactors:
241 TWh
factors:current
in 2021
current population
to aroundand
population 400 population
andTWh growth,
in 2030.
population This
growth,
number of was
projection households,
based on residential
several keyelectricity
factors: customers,
current electricity
population andsales, economic
population devel-
growth,
number of households, residential electricity customers, electricity sales, economic devel-
opment,of
number and electrification
households, ratio, where
residential the details
electricity aboutelectricity
the projection
sales,are in [20]. One of
opment, and electrification ratio, where the customers,
details about the projection economic devel-
are in [20]. One of
the critical
opment, andfactors, population
electrification growth,
ratio, where is
thealso one about
details of thethemain reasons are
projection behind European
in [20]. One of
the critical factors, population growth, is also one of the main reasons behind European
electricity
the critical consumption growthgrowth,
factors, population [21]. The trendone
is also forofJava
theand
mainBali specifically
reasons behindcan be seen
European
electricity consumption growth [21]. The trend for Java and Bali specifically can be seen in
in Figure 4.
electricity In this study,
consumption PLN’s[21].
growth projection wasfor
The trend extended
Java and byBali
twospecifically
decades to can 2050,
beusing
seen
Figure 4. In this study, PLN’s projection was extended by two decades to 2050, using the
theFigure
in PLN average
4. In thisgrowth
study,in demand
PLN’s of 5.6%,
projection taking
was into account
extended by two all aspectstocontributing
decades 2050, using
PLN
to the
average
growth
growth in demand
of Indonesia’s
of 5.6%,
electricity
taking into account all aspects contributing to the
the PLN average growth in demand of demand.
5.6%, taking into account all aspects contributing
growth of Indonesia’s electricity demand.
to the growth of Indonesia’s electricity demand.
5.8
(%)(%)

5.8
5.7
Growth

5.7
5.6
Growth

5.6
5.5
Demand

5.5
5.4
Demand

5.4
5.3
ElecElec

5.3
5.2
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
5.2
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Figure 4. Electricity demand growth (%) in Java and Bali islands from 2021 to 2030 [14].
Figure 4.
Figure 4. Electricity
Electricity demand
demandgrowth
growth(%)
(%)inin
Java and
Java Bali
and islands
Bali from
islands 20212021
from to 2030 [14].[14].
to 2030
2.3. Renewable Energy Source Availability
2.3.
2.3. Renewable
Renewable
The energy Energy
Energy Source
Source
potential Availability
in Availability
Indonesia, including Java and Bali islands, consists of various
renewable
The sources.
The energy These in
potential
potential islands are situated
inIndonesia,
Indonesia, including in aJava
including maritime
and
Java tropical
Bali
and islands,
Bali area with
consists
islands, only rainy
of various
consists of various
and dry
renewable seasons
sources. [22].
TheseSunlight
islands is abundant
are situated virtually
in a every
maritime day of
tropical
renewable sources. These islands are situated in a maritime tropical area with only the
areayear
with[15],
only yet therainy
rainy
current
and dry contribution
seasons [22].of solar
Sunlightenergy
is to
abundantthe grid is
virtuallyalmost
everyzero
day (see
of
and dry seasons [22]. Sunlight is abundant virtually every day of the year [15], yet the Table
the year1). In
[15], general,
yet the
irradiation
current
current is approximately
contribution
contribution of solar4.5
ofsolar kWh/m
energy
energy
2/day for western areas of Indonesia and around
totothethegrid
grid is is
almost zero
almost (see(see
zero Table 1). In
Table 1).general,
In general,
5.1 kWh/m
irradiation 2/day for eastern regions [23].
is approximately 4.5 kWh/m This
2/day
2 research
for westernuses hourly
areas
irradiation is approximately 4.5 kWh/m /day for western areas of Indonesia and of solar
Indonesiaelectricity
and from
aroundaround
the
5.1 European
kWh/m 22 Commission’s
/day for eastern open-source
regions [23]. Photovoltaic
This research Geographical
uses hourly
5.1 kWh/m /day for eastern regions [23]. This research uses hourly solar electricity from Information
solar electricitySystem
from
(PVGIS)
the
the [24]. Commission’s
European
European During the dryopen-source
Commission’s season, the Photovoltaic
open-source country has more
Photovoltaic extendedInformation
Geographical
Geographical daylight with
Information ade-
SystemSystem
quate sunlight
(PVGIS) [24]. [25]. the dry season, the country has more extended daylight with ade-
During
(PVGIS) [24]. During the dry season, the country has more extended daylight with adequate
quateThe
sunlight
coastal areas of both Java and Bali islands have higher wind speeds compared to
sunlight
[25]. [25].
inland areas.
The coastal The wind on Java and Bali islands
islandsishave
appropriate for wind turbines, as the
The coastalareas
areasofofboth
both Java
Java and Bali
and Bali higher wind
islands have higher windspeeds compared
speeds to
compared
inland areas. The wind on Java and Bali islands is appropriate for wind turbines, as the
to inland areas. The wind on Java and Bali islands is appropriate for wind turbines, as
the average wind speed in the coastal area is 6 m/s and can be harnessed by small wind
turbines with a cut-in speed of 4 m/s [26]. From December to March, the wind blows
from the Asian continent to the Australian continent (rainy season), while during the
June–September period, it is the other way around (dry season) [27]. Extended daylight
 Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 19

Energies 2023, 16, 7461 average wind speed in the coastal area is 6 m/s and can be harnessed by small wind tur- 6 of 19
bines with a cut-in speed of 4 m/s [26]. From December to March, the wind blows from
the Asian continent to the Australian continent (rainy season), while during the June–Sep-
tember period, it is the other way around (dry season) [27]. Extended daylight in summer
in summer and cloudiness in the rainy season lead to time-varying energy production
and cloudiness in the rainy season lead to time-varying energy production from renewa-
from renewables, particularly solar, throughout the year. Therefore, flexibility in power
bles, particularly solar, throughout the year. Therefore, flexibility in power systems in In-
systems in Indonesia is essential to cover the demand year-round. Figure 5 shows the solar
donesia is essential to cover the demand year-round. Figure 5 shows the solar irradiation
irradiation and wind speed in Java and Bali.
and wind speed in Java and Bali.

Solar irradiation (kWh/m2)

8

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wind Speed in 90m (m/s)

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Figure 5. The (spatial average) hourly solar irradiation and wind speed on Java and Bali islands in
2020. 5. The (spatial average) hourly solar irradiation and wind speed on Java and Bali islands
Figure
in 2020.
The hydropower potential is also considerable, with the total of 4.99 GW in Java and
The hydropower potential is also considerable, with the total of 4.99 GW in Java and
Bali. It is available across both islands with different regional capacities, with West Java
Bali.
beingIt is available
the across both
most abundant. The islands
potentialwith different regional
of hydropower in Westcapacities,
Java is 2.86with GW,West
whileJava
being the most abundant. The potential of hydropower
Central and East Java have 0.81 MW and 0.60 MW, respectively [28]. in West Java is 2.86 GW, while
CentralAsand East Java
a country have
with the 0.81 MW
fourth and 0.60
largest MW, respectively
population in the world,[28].
the potential for elec-
As production
tricity a country with
from the fourth
urban wastelargest population
in Indonesia in the world,
is significant. the potential
This study considers for
totalelec-
tricity production
municipal from (MSW),
solid waste urban waste in Indonesia
thus not is significant.
only the biomass This
fraction, as study
a fuel considers
to generatetotal
municipal
electricitysolid
usingwaste
waste (MSW), thus not
thermal power only(WTPP).
plants the biomass fraction,
The potential ofasMSWa fuel to generate
in Java and
electricity
Bali can be using waste
found thermal
in Table powerBureau
3. Central plantsof(WTPP).
StatisticsThe potential
Indonesia of MSW
(BPS) in Java
estimated thatand
Bali
eachcan be found
person in Table
produced 3. Central
around 0.68 kg Bureau
of waste ofperStatistics Indonesia
day in 2020 (BPS)
[29]. Table estimated
3 highlights thethat
each person produced around 0.68 kg of waste per day
number of inhabitants [30], and the assumed MSW produced daily. in 2020 [29]. Table 3 highlights the
number of inhabitants [30], and the assumed MSW produced daily.
Table 3. MSW produced by individuals each day in Java and Bali.
Table 3. MSW produced by individuals each day in Java and Bali.
Province Inhabitants (10 )
6 kton Waste/Day
Bali
Province Inhabitants (1064.41
) 3.00
kton Waste/Day
Banten 12.90 8.77
Bali 4.41 3.00
DKI Jakarta 10.58 7.19
Banten 12.90 8.77
West Java 49.57 33.70
DKI Jakarta
Central Java 10.58
34.74 7.19
23.62
East Java
West Java 39.96
49.57 27.17
33.70
DI Yogyakarta
Central Java 34.743.92 2.67
23.62
Total 156.06 106.12
East Java 39.96 27.17
DI Yogyakarta 3.92 2.67
Total 156.06 106.12

Lastly, the potential of geothermal energy in Indonesia is also high since the country is
in the Ring of Fire, yet the utilization is still low [31]. Java island has the most significant
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 7 of 19

geothermal energy potential. Thus, energy generation from this source looks highly feasible.
Table 4 shows the overview of geothermal energy in Indonesia.

Table 4. Overview of Geothermal energy in Indonesia [31].

Potential (MW)
Installed
Location Number Resource Reserve Total (MW)
(MW)
Speculative Hypothetic Possible Probable Proven
Sumatera 93 3183 2469 6790 15 380 12,837 122
Java 71 1672 1826 3786 658 1815 9575 1264
Bali-Nusa Tenggara 33 427 417 1013 0 15 1905 12.5
Kalimantan 12 145 0 0 0 0 145 0
Sulawesi 70 1330 221 1374 150 78 3153 80
Maluku 30 545 76 450 0 0 1071 0
Papua 3 75 0 0 0 0 75 0
Total 312 7377 5009 13,413 823 2288 28,910 1478.5
12,386 16,524
28,910 MW potential in total
Speculative resource is based on the presence of manifestation surface; Hypotactic resource is determined based
on the geological and geochemical surveys; Possible reserve is the estimation based on the detailed investigation;
Probable is a detailed investigation based on the drill exploration identification and preliminary feasibility study;
Proven reserve informs a detail of reliable data such as the geothermal fluid flow capacity.

According to all the potential mentioned before, Java and Bali islands have sufficient
RES to generate electricity. This study indicated the potential and the current capacity per
province in Java and Bali, as seen in Table 5.

Table 5. The potential (top) and the current (bottom) capacity of RES per province in Java and Bali
islands [4,5,20].

Potential Central
Banten Jakarta West Java Yogyakarta East Java Bali Total (GW)
(MW) Java
Geothermal 365 0 3765 1344 0 1012 262 6.75
Hydropower 560 0 2861 813 0 548 208 4.99
MSW 40 33 155 109 12 125 20 0.50
Solar 2461 225 9099 8753 996 10,335 1254 33.12
Wind 1753 0 7036 5213 1079 7907 1019 24.01
Total (GW) 5.18 0.26 22.92 16.23 2.09 19.93 2.76 69.36
Current Central
Banten Jakarta West Java Yogyakarta East Java Bali Total (GW)
(MW) Java
Geothermal 0 0 1098 60 0 0 0 1.16
Hydropower 0 0 1958 359.7 0 550 0 2.87
MSW 40 33 38 30 12 10 20 0.18
Solar 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.72 0
Total (GW) 0.04 0.03 3.10 0.45 0.01 0.56 0.02 4.21

2.4. Setting of Storage Systems

Flexibility in supply is essential for the design of energy mixes. Solar and wind are
prominent sources of renewable energy generation, but those sources are intermittent. Both
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 8 of 19

solar and wind energy have variable and uncertain outputs due to seasonal and local
weather conditions [32]; therefore, there is a need for storage to match demand and supply,
thus enhancing flexibility. Energy storage is vital in dealing with the intermittency of
RES [6].
Gravitational potential energy, such as in pumped hydro energy storage (PHES)
systems, can be a promising option to bulk energy storage up to GWh levels [33]. PHES
stores energy as gravitational potential energy by pumping water between two reservoirs
located at different heights [34]. Bath County Pumped Storage Station is listed as the largest
PHES in the world today and stores around 3 GWh of energy. This storage is used for
powering around 750,000 homes in the USA [35] with 80% energy efficiency [36]. Bhayo
et al. [37] reported that rainfall-based hydropower storage is promising in tropical climate
conditions, like the islands of Java and Bali.
A lithium-ion battery is the first electrochemical storage option that can be chosen to
store energy in Java and Bali in the short term. The battery has several advantages, such
as various capacities, mature technology and higher efficiency than other energy storage
systems [38]. Currently, the moss landing lithium-ion battery storage system is operated
by Vistra Corps in Moss Landing, CA, USA, with a capacity of 400 MWh and 99% energy
efficiency [39]. Another advantage is that this battery has a quick turning time. This storage
can respond quickly to the energy demand at a low energy production time by balancing
the energy supply.
This study assumes that sufficient storage capacity is available to cover the variations
in demand and supply with minimal curtailment and no shortage. Evaluating the possible
storage scenarios for Indonesia will be a study on its own.

2.5. Mathematical Modelling

The energy mixes in this research derived support from the above-mentioned four
RES and MSW. This study assumed that the capacity of MSW, hydropower, and geothermal
energy was fixed and could produce constant electricity as the base load (Eelec M , Eelec H , and
EelecG , respectively). The hourly electricity generation of a solar panel (EelecS ) and wind
speed referred to the PVGIS and climatological data issued by the European Commis-
sion [24]. The equations used to calculate electricity generated by a wind turbine (EelecW )
can be found in Supplementary Materials S2. The total hourly electricity generated from
the energy mix (EelecT ) can be calculated as follows:


EelecT = Eelec M + Eelec H + EelecG + EelecS + EelecW (1)

Based on Equation (1) and the PLN’s projection of electricity demand growth in
Section 2.2, the projection of electricity supply growth was calculated to ensure the electric-
ity supply matched with the electricity demand until 2050.
As mentioned before, the electricity demand (EelecD ) was obtained from PLN’s data,
thus, the excess electricity or the electricity deficit from the hourly electricity balance (EelecB ),
as follows:

EelecB = EelecT − EelecD (2)
Thus, EelecB < 0 leads to an electricity deficit, EelecB = 0 to zero curtailment, and
EelecB > 0 to excess of electricity. Each hourly excess of electricity was stored, and the
storage released electricity when there was a deficit, with a one-way efficiency of 80%. The
electricity balance of one whole year was constrained by a zero-curtailment requirement.
This study also conducted an additional sensitivity analysis on the wind-based energy
mix, the most feasible one as will be shown later, based on four main cases. The first case
was lowering the wind speed and elevating the solar irradiation. Next, the second case
was by decreasing the electricity generated from wind turbines by 10% and replacing it by
electricity generated from additional solar panels, as follows:




EelecT1 = Eelec M + Eelec H + EelecG + EelecS + 10%EelecS + EelecW − 10%EelecW (3)
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 9 of 19

Similar to the second case, in the third case, the amount of electricity generated from
wind was replaced by electricity from additional geothermal sources, as follows:




EelecT2 = Eelec M + Eelec H + EelecS + EelecG + 10%EelecG + EelecW − 10%EelecW (4)

In the last case, decreasing the amount of electricity from wind by 10% was compen-
sated by extra electricity from both solar (5%) and geothermal (5%), as follows:





EelecT3 = Eelec M + Eelec H + EelecS + 5%EelecS + EelecG + 5%EelecG + EelecW − 10%EelecW (5)

2.6. Key Performance Indicators

This study considered several KPIs to meet the desired RES percentage in the an-
nual energy supply. The economic aspects that are considered in this study are capital
investment/installation cost (CAPEX), operation and maintenance (O&M) cost (OPEX),
and return on investment (ROI). CAPEX is once in a time span, but OPEX is an annual cost.
Each renewable energy conversion technology has different CAPEX and OPEX (Table 6).

Table 6. CAPEX and OPEX of each renewable [40].

Total Installed Costs

Levelized Cost of
(2020 $/kW) Electricity (LCOE) O&M Cost
Percentage (2020 $/kWh)
2010 2020
Change (%)
2–6% of the
MSW 2169 2543 −3 0.076
installed cost
Geothermal 2620 4468 71 0.049 $115/kW/year
Hydropower 1269 1870 47 0.038 2.5% of LCOE
Solar PV 4731 883 −81 0.038 $17.8/kW/year
Onshore wind 1971 1355 −31 0.089 30% of LCOE
Offshore wind 4706 3185 −32 0.162 16–25% of LCOE

The ROI defines the percentage of revenue from the investment over specific periods.
This research calculates the ROI from the difference between the benefits and the costs
(CAPEX and OPEX) within one life cycle of 25 years of the installations.

Bene f its − Costs

ROI = × 100% (6)
Costs
The benefits are based on annual electricity sales. The benefits’ present value (PV) is
then calculated to determine the net present value of the revenue (NPV).

25 C0
PV = ∑ t =1 (1 + r ) t (7)

NPV = (PV − Costs) (8)

where C0 is the annual benefits (in $), t is time (in years), and r is the discount rate of 3%.
This research used LCOE for the selling price of electricity to calculate the annual benefit.
Environmental KPIs are essential to assess neutral energy development [41]. In terms
of environmental factors, carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emission and CO2 reduction are fundamen-
tal in this study. The emission from renewable generation does not come from its generation
but from indirect processes such as product manufacturing and plant construction. CO2
emission calculation was based on the emission produced during the manufacturing pro-
cess. All CO2 emission of each RES capacity installed was calculated for one time per
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 10 of 19
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 19

life span (approximately 20–25 years). CO2 reduction was calculated by comparing the
comparing
emission the emission
of RES with theofemission
RES with from
the emission frompower
coal-based coal-based
plantspower plants to electricity
to generate gener-
Energies 2023, 16, ate
x electricity
FOR PEER each
REVIEW year to meet the electricity demand for the life span
each year to meet the electricity demand for the life span of each RES. The World Nuclear of each RES. The10 of 19
World Nuclear Association investigated the emission of each renewable per kWh of pro-
Association investigated the emission of each renewable per kWh of produced energy, as
duced energy, as seen in Figure 6. After the emission of each renewable is known, the CO2
seen in Figure 6. After the emission of each renewable is known, the CO2 reduction can be
reduction can be determined by comparing the the
emission from fossil fuels used byplants
the cur-
determined bycomparing
comparing thethe
emission of RESfrom
emission with emission
fossil fuels from
usedcoal-based power
by the current energyto gener-
mix
rent energy mix (baseline)each
ate electricity andyear
thetoproposed renewable
meet the electricity energy
demand for mix (scenario)
the life in this
span of each RES. The
(baseline) and the proposed renewable energy mix (scenario) in this study.
study. World Nuclear Association investigated the emission of each renewable per kWh of pro-
duced energy, as seen in Figure 6. After the emission of each renewable is known, the CO2
820
reduction can be determined by comparing the emission from fossil fuels used by the cur-
900
740 rent energy mix (baseline) and the proposed renewable energy mix (scenario) in this
750
study.
gCO2 oer kWh

600 490
450 900 820
740
300 750 230
gCO2 oer kWh

150 600 49048 41 38 27 24 12 12 11

450
0
300 230

150 48 41 38 27 24 12 12 11
0

Figure 6. The CO2 emission per energy source [42].

Figure 6. The CO2 emission per energy source [42].
This research uses all the KPIs per
to investigate
source and
This Figure
research 6. The
uses COthe
all 2 emission
KPIs to energy
investigate andexplore
[42]. explorefeasible
feasibleenergy mixes. It
energy mixes. It
considers energy mixes with minimal costs (CAPEX and OPEX) but high ROI, the lowest
considers energy mixes with minimal costs (CAPEX and OPEX) but high ROI, the lowest
CO2 emission but the
Thishighest
research emission
uses all reduction
the KPIs toand zero curtailments.
investigate and explore An offshore
feasible wind
energy mixes. It
CO2 emission but the highest
considers
emission reductioncosts
and(CAPEX
zero curtailments. An offshore wind
turbine is chosen due toenergy mixesavailable
the space with minimal
for offshore windand OPEX) specifically
turbines, but high ROI,inthe
thelowest
turbine is chosen due
COarea to
2 emission
the space available for offshore wind turbines, specifically in the
southern coastal of thebut the highest emission reduction and zero curtailments. An offshore wind
islands.
southern coastal area of
turbine the islands.
is chosen due to the space available for offshore wind turbines, specifically in the
3. Results andsouthern coastal area of the islands.
Discussion
3. Results and Discussion
3.1.Forecast
3.1. ForecastofofResidential
Residential
3. Electricity
Results and Demand
Discussion
Electricity Demand
Using the electricity
Forecast ofdemand derived from Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and its
Using the 3.1.
electricity Residential
demand Electricity
derived Demand
from Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and its
forecasts, the projection
Using of household
the electricity electricity
demand demand
derived used in this
from Perusahaan study is shown inand its
forecasts, the projection of household electricity demand used in Listrik Negara
this study is(PLN)
shown in
Figure 7. Domestic electricity
forecasts, demand
the projection in 2050 iselectricity
of household expecteddemand
to be about five
used in thistimes
studyhigher
is shown in
Figure 7. Domestic electricity demand in 2050 is expected to be about five times higher
than in 2020. Figure 7. Domestic electricity demand in 2050 is expected to be about five times higher
than in 2020. than in 2020.
400
400
350
350
Load (TWh)

300
Load (TWh)

300
250
250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0
0

Figure 7. The forecast of electricity demand for Java and Bali islands until 2050.
Figure 7.7.The
Figure Theforecast
forecastof
ofelectricity demandfor
electricity demand forJava
Javaand
andBali
Baliislands
islands until
until 2050.
2050.
3.2. Scenario Analysis
3.2. Scenario Analysis
3.2. Scenario Analysis Table S3 of the Supplementary Materials presents the results of the full factorial sce-
Table
TableS3
S3 of
of theanalysis
the
nario Supplementary
Supplementary Materials
Materials
using residential presents
presents
demand the
2020.results
the results
data from of the
Only of
fullthe
4 out 32full
werefactorial
offactorial sce-able to
not
scenario analysis using
nario analysiscover
usingthe residential demand
2020: the baseline
residential data
demand(currently
data fromfrom 2020.
installed Only
capacity)
2020. Only 4
4 outandout of
three
of 32 were32 were
scenarios nottoable
using
not able only
tocover
coverthe
the2020:
2020:the
thebaseline
baseline(currently
(currently installed
installed capacity)
capacity) andand three
three scenarios
scenarios using
using onlyonly
hydro power and/or MSW. All other scenarios with either geothermal, solar or wind could
cover the entire 2020 demand such that excess energy was produced when the full potential
 hydro power and/or MSW. All other scenarios with either geothermal, solar or wind could
cover the entire 2020 demand such that excess energy was produced when the full poten-
Energies 2023, 16, 7461
tial was exploited. Therefore, three additional scenarios were introduced, 11 of 19
with a
downscaled capacity of geothermal, solar or wind energy, such that the entire 2020 de-
mand was covered without curtailment (Table 7).
was exploited. Therefore, three additional scenarios were introduced, with a downscaled
Table 7. Theofbaseline,
capacity existing
geothermal, solarcapacity
or wind and adjusted
energy, scenarios.
such that the entire 2020 demand was covered
without curtailment (Table 7).
Scenarios
Geo Hydro
Table 7. The baseline, existing capacity and adjusted scenarios. MSW Solar Wind
1 0 0 0 0 0
Scenarios
2 1 0 0 0 0
Geo Hydro MSW Solar Wind
3 0 1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 1 0 0
2 1 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 1 0
3 0 1 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0 1
4 0 0 1 0 0
Adjusted 2 5.26 2.87 0.18 0.00 0.00
5 0 0 0 1 0
Adjusted 5 1.16 2.87 0.18 14.89 0.00
6 0 0 0 0 1
Adjusted 6 1.16 2.87 0.18 0.00 12.27
Adjusted 2 5.26 2.87 0.18 0.00 0.00
Legend: The geo-based energy mix (Adjusted 2) uses the current capacity of solar and wind energy,
Adjusted 5
the maximum potential 1.16
of hydropower2.87 and MSW, and 0.18
an adjustment 14.89 0.00
of the geothermal potential.
Adjusted 6 energy 1.16
The solar-based mix (Adjusted 2.87 5) uses the current0.18 capacity of 0.00
geothermal and 12.27wind energy,
the Legend:
maximum The geo-based
potentialenergy mix (Adjusted 2) and
of hydropower uses the currentand
MSW, capacity of solar and wind
an adjustment of energy, the maximum
the solar potential. The
potential of hydropower and MSW, and an adjustment of the geothermal potential. The solar-based energy mix
wind-based
(Adjusted 5)energy
uses themix (Adjusted
current capacity of6)geothermal
uses the andcurrent capacity
wind energy, of solar and
the maximum geothermal
potential energy, the
of hydropower
maximum
and MSW, potential of hydropower
and an adjustment of the solarand MSW,
potential. and
The an adjustment
wind-based energy mix of(Adjusted
the wind 6) potential. A 0 means
uses the current
onlycapacity
usingofthesolar and geothermal
existing capacityenergy, the maximum
of each RES in potential
2020. Aof1 hydropower
means using and MSW, and an adjustment
all available potentialof of each
the wind potential. A 0 means only using the existing capacity of each RES in 2020. A 1 means using all available
RESpotential
in 2020. of each RES in 2020.

TheThe
current
currentand
and proposed capacity
proposed capacity of each
of each RESRES in those
in those three scenarios
three scenarios caninbe seen
can be seen
in Figure 8. The
Figure 8. Thesame
samecolors
colors
areare used
used in each
in each to indicate
to indicate the corresponding
the corresponding RES. RES.

Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based

0.18 1.16 1.16

2.87

2.87 0.18 2.87

0.18
5.26 14.89 12.27

Geo Hydro MSW Solar Wind Geo Hydro MSW Solar Wind Geo Hydro MSW Solar Wind

Figure 8. The
Figure proposed
8. The proposedcapacity (inGW)
capacity (in GW)ofofprimary
primary scenarios
scenarios in 2020
in 2020 basedbased onindata
on data Tablein5.Table 5.

TheThe electricitydemand
electricity demand projection
projection depicted
depictedin in
Figure 7 requires
Figure an annual
7 requires capacity
an annual capacity
development of the energy mixes to cover all the demand. However, the projection of
development of the energy mixes to cover all the demand. However, the projection of re-
required capacities shows that only the geo-based energy mix can meet the demand up to
quired
2050 capacities
(see Figure shows thatany
9), without only the geo-based
capacity energy
increase in the othermix
RES.can
Themeet the demand
solar-based energy up to
2050 (see
mix canFigure
meet the9),demand
withoutonly
anyuntil
capacity increase
2043, while in the other
the wind-based RES.
mix canThe solar-based
cover the demandenergy
mixuntil
can2046.
meet the demand only until 2043, while the wind-based mix can cover the de-
mand until 2046.
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 12 of 19
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 19

80
Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based
70
60
Capacity (GW)

50
40
30
20
10
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Figure 9. Capacity development of three primary scenarios up to 2050.

Figure 9. Capacity development of three primary scenarios up to 2050.
Further investigation shows that some RES potentials of the three significant scenar-
Further investigation shows that some RES potentials of the three significant scenarios
ios cannot follow the capacity development until 2050 (see Supplementary Materials S6).
cannot follow the capacity development until 2050 (see Supplementary Materials S6). For
For example, the potential of geothermal, hydropower and MSW in the geo-based energy
example, the potential of geothermal, hydropower and MSW in the geo-based energy mix
mix can only be developed to meet the demand until 2024, 2030 and 2039, respectively.
can only be developed to meet the demand until 2024, 2030 and 2039, respectively. Solar
Solar and wind energy should take over capacity development from those years to 2050.
and wind energy should take over capacity development from those years to 2050.
Developing each RES capacity simultaneously is essential to meet rising electricity
Developing
demand, as the each RESdevelopment
capacity capacity simultaneously is essential
of each RES takes to meet
some years. rising
Thus, electricity
it becomes
demand, as theifcapacity
more difficult capacity development
development isofexecuted
each RES takes some
separately. To years. Thus,
be precise, it becomes
geo-based,
more difficult if capacity development is executed separately. To be
solar-based, and wind-based energy mixes require 1.15 GW, 2.64 GW, and 2.25 GWprecise, geo-based,
(see
solar-based, and wind-based energy mixes require 1.15 GW, 2.64 GW, and 2.25
Supplementary Materials S6) of annual capacity development to ensure a reliable electric- GW (see
Supplementary
ity supply. TheMaterials S6) of annual
annual capacity capacity
development ofdevelopment
the geo-basedtoenergy
ensuremix
a reliable electricity
is the lowest,
supply. The annual capacity development of the geo-based energy mix
because geothermal energy production, as opposed to solar and wind, does not depend is the lowest,
because geothermal energy production,
on weather conditions and day–night cycles.as opposed to solar and wind, does not depend on
weather conditions and day–night cycles.
3.3. Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Mixes
3.3. Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Mixes
In this research, for both seasons, the trend of electricity generation on an hourly basis
In this
in three research,scenarios
significant for both ensures
seasons,a the trend
reliable of electricity
electricity generation
supply that meetson2020′s
an hourly
domes- basis
intic
three significant scenarios ensures a reliable 0 s domestic
electricity demand on Java and Bali islands.electricity
Therefore,supply that meets 2020
the government’s intention to
electricity
implement demand on Java
the transition andfossil
from Balitoislands.
cleaner Therefore, the government’s
energy production is achievable.intention
Table 8 to
implement
shows feasiblethe transition
proportionsfrom fossil
of each RES toincleaner energy
the three production
scenarios is achievable.
(with corresponding Table 8
capac-
ities, feasible
shows Figure 8)proportions
for 2020′s household electricity
of each RES supply
in the three on Java(with
scenarios and Bali islands.
corresponding capacities,
Figure 8) for 20200 s household electricity supply on Java and Bali islands.
Table 8. The electricity generated by the proposed capacity of primary scenarios in Table 8.
The electricity
Table 8.Electricity generated
Demand by the
to Cover (inproposed
TWh) capacity of primary scenarios in Table 8.
72.76

Electricity Demand to Cover (in TWh) 72.76

Geo-Based Supply Solar-Based Supply Wind-Based Supply
Geo-Based Supply
Sources % TWh Solar-Based Supply
Sources % TWh Sources Wind-Based
% SupplyTWh
SourcesSolar % 0.03 TWh 0.02 Sources
Solar % 49.30 TWh
35.87 Sources
Solar %0.03 TWh
0.02
Solar Wind 0.03 0.03 0.020.02 SolarWind 49.30 0.03 0.02
35.87 Wind
Solar 49.30
0.03 35.87
0.02
Geothermal
Wind 0.03 63.21 46.00
0.02 Geothermal
Wind 0.03 13.94 10.14
0.02 Geothermal
Wind 13.94
49.30 10.14
35.87
Hydropower 34.52 25.12 Hydropower 34.52 25.12 Hydropower 34.52 25.12
Geothermal 63.21 46.00 Geothermal 13.94 10.14 Geothermal 13.94 10.14
MSW 2.21 1.61 MSW 2.21 1.61 MSW 2.21 1.61
Hydropower
Total 34.52 100 25.12 72.76 Hydropower Total 34.52 100 25.12
72.76 Hydropower
Total 34.52
100 25.12
72.76
MSWStorage 2.21 1.61
5 GWh MSWStorage 2.21 1.61GWh
59.2 MSW
Storage 2.21 1.61
98.3 GWh
Total 100 72.76 Total 100 72.76 Total 100 72.76
As shown in Table 8, hydropower plays a pivotal role in the domestic electricity sup-
Storage 5 GWh Storage 59.2 GWh Storage 98.3 GWh
ply in this research by contributing around 34.52% of all electricity supply. Additionally,
geothermal contributes the second highest proportion in the solar- and wind-based sce-
narios
As with
shown13.94%, disregarding
in Table the highest
8, hydropower costaofpivotal
plays this technology.
role in the domestic electricity
supplyAs inseen
thisin Figure 3,bythe
research domestic electricity
contributing arounddemand
34.52% of in Java and Bali during
all electricity theAddition-
supply. night
is higher
ally, than during
geothermal the day;
contributes thehence,
secondthe energyproportion
highest mix needs in to the
supply more
solar- andelectricity
wind-based
scenarios with 13.94%, disregarding the highest cost of this technology.
 this season, it is more favorable to harness wind energy than other sources. During the
rainy season, solar energy generation is less than during the dry season, but the wind is
stronger.
Interestingly, the weather conditions on both islands cause a similar trend of electric-
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 ity generation between solar-based and wind-based, with a higher generation during the 13 of 19
day. Strong wind occurs more often during the day, thus, there is excess energy for energy
storage. However, as in the solar-based scenario, long-term energy storage is needed to
store the energy from the rainy season for the dry season, which requires up to 98.3 GWh
As seencapacity
of storage in Figurein 3, theform
the domestic electricity
of PHES. Due to demand
the high in Java and Bali
precipitation during
in Java andthe night
Bali,
is more
higher than during the day; hence, the energy mix needs to supply more
abundant rain is probable in the rainy season. The abundance of rain can create en- electricity
during the night. The
ergy curtailments. To geo-based
avoid energy scenario produces
curtailments, the aexcess
moreenergy
stable can
electricity
also be supply than
stored in
the other scenarios since geothermal is unaffected by the weather and day–night
batteries and used for other purposes besides domestic use. Therefore, this research indi- cycle
(Figure 10). lithium-ion
cated that Thus, excess supplyand
batteries must be stored
PHES during
could be the day tooptions
two promising accommodate the higher
at this moment.
demand
However, selecting the appropriate options and operational conditions for that storage is is
at night. According to the calculations, the storage capacity in this scenario
about 5 GWh.
beyond Thisofamount
the focus is the
this study. accumulation
Figure 10 depicts the of extreme
any deficit
highenergy at and
(August) typical
lowperiods,
(De-
generally
cember) at around generation
electricity 17.00–22.00. from solar and wind for 24 h.

Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based

August August August

20 20
20 20 20 20
18 18
18 18 18 18
16 16 16 16 16 16
14 14 14 14 14 14
12 12 12 12 12 12
10 10 10 10 10 10
8 8 8 8 8 8
6 6 6 6 6 6
Energies 2023,
4 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 4 4 4 4 14 of 19
2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

December December December

20 20
20 20 20 20
18 18
18 18 18 18
16 16 16 16 16 16
14 14 14 14 14 14
12 12 12 12 12 12
10 10 10 10 10 10
8 8 8 8 8 8
6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4
2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Figure 10.Extreme
Figure10. Extremeelectricity
electricitygeneration
generationduring
duringa aday
dayininAugust
Augustand
andDecember,
December,respectively,
respectively,inin2020
on2020
Javaon Java
and andislands
Bali Bali islands
from from
threethree adjusted
adjusted energy
energy mixesmixes (in GWh).
(in GWh).

In addition
During to energy
the peak storage,
of the anothermore
dry season, challenge is stabilizing
extended hydropower
daylight is available,electricity
and more
production. However, the work of Winasis et al. (2013) on the Ketenger
solar energy can be harnessed. A solar-based energy mix is superior during the dry hydropower plant
season.
in Central Java showed that stabilizing hydropower electricity generation
The peak period for solar energy generation is between July–October, from 10 to 14 o’clock.is possible by
fixing the water inflow to and from the upper reservoir [43]. In the dry season,
A solar-based scenario needs to store the excess electricity, which is subsequently used the water
atoutflow shouldpeak
night during constantly
hours.beTherefore,
above the bottom
the need limit
for of the required
energy storageflow to generate
is evident, wherethe the
hourly electricity supply from hydropower. When the water inflow significantly
storage capacity can be up to 59.2 GWh in the rainy season. During the rainy season, supply exceeds
thatlong-term
from limit, particularly
energy in the rainy
storage withseason,
excessthe excessfrom
energy water can
the beseason
dry released is through a by-
essential.
passWind
system to avoid overflooding.
electricity generation is far more than the demand in the rainy season. During
this season, it is more favorable to harness wind energy than other sources. During the
3.4. The Feasible Energy Supply
rainy season, solar energy generation is less than during the dry season, but the wind is
Each energy mix has a specific combination of technologies that results in different
stronger.
values of KPIs, assisting
Interestingly, the related
the weather stakeholders
conditions on bothinislands
determining
cause athe most feasible
similar trend ofenergy
electricity
generation between solar-based and wind-based, with a higher generation duringsolar-
mixes. From the scenarios in this research, the three main energy mixes, geo-based, the day.
based, and wind-based, are resilient due to the variety of RES on Java and Bali.
Strong wind occurs more often during the day, thus, there is excess energy for energy
Renewable energy technologies indirectly emit CO2, mainly from the manufacturing
storage. However, as in the solar-based scenario, long-term energy storage is needed to
processes. In 2020, around 88% of the national electricity production in Indonesia was
store the energy from the rainy season for the dry season, which requires up to 98.3 GWh of
from fossil fuels (coal, gas, and oil) [19], which emitted around 30.3 billion tons of CO2 that
storage capacity in the form of PHES. Due to the high precipitation in Java and Bali, more
year (see Figure 11). A wind-based energy mix fits the initial aim of the Indonesian gov-
abundant rain is probable in the rainy season. The abundance of rain can create energy
ernment, reducing the national CO2 emission. The wind-based energy mix is the least pol-
curtailments. To avoid energy curtailments, the excess energy can also be stored in batteries
luting scenario compared to the other scenarios. It can reduce the CO2 emissions the most,
and
around 94% lower purposes
used for other besides domestic
than the coal-based use.(Figure
energy mix Therefore,
11). this research indicated that
From the economic perspective, despite the high CAPEX and OPEX (Table 6), har-
nessing electricity from geothermal is not the most expensive among the four other RES
in this research because geothermal energy in this study has a capacity factor of 1 and is
independent of weather conditions. Even though solar energy has the lowest capacity fac-
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 14 of 19

lithium-ion batteries and PHES could be two promising options at this moment. However,
selecting the appropriate options and operational conditions for that storage is beyond
the focus of this study. Figure 10 depicts the extreme high (August) and low (December)
electricity generation from solar and wind for 24 h.
In addition to energy storage, another challenge is stabilizing hydropower electricity
production. However, the work of Winasis et al. (2013) on the Ketenger hydropower plant
in Central Java showed that stabilizing hydropower electricity generation is possible by
fixing the water inflow to and from the upper reservoir [43]. In the dry season, the water
outflow should constantly be above the bottom limit of the required flow to generate the
hourly electricity supply from hydropower. When the water inflow significantly exceeds
that limit, particularly in the rainy season, the excess water can be released through a
bypass system to avoid overflooding.

3.4. The Feasible Energy Supply

Each energy mix has a specific combination of technologies that results in different
values of KPIs, assisting the related stakeholders in determining the most feasible energy
mixes. From the scenarios in this research, the three main energy mixes, geo-based, solar-
based, and wind-based, are resilient due to the variety of RES on Java and Bali.
Renewable energy technologies indirectly emit CO2 , mainly from the manufacturing
processes.
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW In 2020, around 88% of the national electricity production in Indonesia 15 of 19 was
from fossil fuels (coal, gas, and oil) [19], which emitted around 30.3 billion tons of CO2
that year (see Figure 11). A wind-based energy mix fits the initial aim of the Indonesian
government, reducing the national CO2 emission. The wind-based energy mix is the least
with its economic and environmental indicators, this energy mix can broaden the options
polluting scenario compared to the other scenarios. It can reduce the CO2 emissions the
for the Indonesian government to choose which scenario fits best with the financial budget
most, around of
and objective 94%
thelower than theincreasing
development, coal-basedthe
energy mix (Figure
likelihood 11).
of implementation.

35 94 95
30
30 94
93
25
Billion ton

91 92
20
91
%

15 90
90
10
89
3 3
5 2 88
0 87
Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based Fossil-based
Carbon mission Emission reduction (%)

Figure 11.
Figure 11. Environmental
Environmental KPIs
KPIsofofthis
thisresearch.
research.

From the economic perspective,

60
139
despite
160 the high CAPEX and OPEX (Table 6), har-
50
nessing
50 electricity from geothermal is not140 the most expensive among the four other RES
120
Percentage (%)

in this
40 research because geothermal energy in this study has a capacity factor of 1 and
Costs (B$)

100
29
is independent
30 of weather
24
conditions. Even
80 though solar energy has the lowest capacity
factor and is dependent 48 on weather conditions,60 the cost of this mix is still lower than the
20 16
29 10 40difference between the CAPEX of geothermal
geo-based
10
energy mix. The considerable
4 20
and solar energy explains this finding. All things considered, the wind-based energy mix
0 0
requiresGeo-based
the most budget Solar-basedamong these three mixes, particularly for CAPEX (Figure 12).
Wind-based
Installation Cost O&M Cost ROI %
However, the ROI calculation shows that only the wind-based energy mix is profitable
during one life cycle of 25 years. High costs for its development can eventually be paid off
Figure 12. Economic KPIs of this research.
due to a high electricity selling price (high LCOE) from the offshore wind turbine (Table 6).
Therefore, a wind-based energy mix might be the best option from an economic perspective.
45.0
The weather
40.0 conditions on both islands also support the usage39.1 of wind turbines. Figure 13
displays 35.0
the contribution of each RES to CAPEX and OPEX in detail.
30.0
in Billion $

23.5
25.0
20.0
13.1
15.0
10.0 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.4
5.0 0.5 3 m$ 0.5 2 m$ 0.5 3 m$
2 m$
0.0
Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based

Geo Hydro MSW Solar Wind

Figure 13. Each RES’s contribution to the installation cost of each energy mix.
 20
91 92
91

to

%%
Billion
20
15 90
91

Billion
90 90
15
10 90
89
10 3 3
5 2 89
88
3 3
5 2 88
0 87
0 Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based Fossil-based 87
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 Geo-based Solar-based Emission
Carbon mission Wind-based Fossil-based
reduction (%) 15 of 19
Carbon mission Emission reduction (%)

Figure 11. Environmental KPIs of this research.

Figure 11. Environmental KPIs of this research.

60 160
139
60 50 160
139 140
50 50
140
120
50

(%)
40 120

(B$)

(%)
100
40 29

Percentage
(B$)
30 100
80
29 24

Percentage
Costs
30 2448 80
60

Costs
20 16
29 16 48 60
20 10 40
10 29 10 4 40
20
10 4
0 20
0
0 Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based 0
Geo-based
Installation Solar-based
Cost O&M CostWind-based
ROI %
Installation Cost O&M Cost ROI %

Figure 12.
Figure 12. Economic
EconomicKPIs
KPIsofofthis
thisresearch.
research.
Figure 12. Economic KPIs of this research.

45.0 39.1
45.0
40.0 39.1
40.0
35.0
35.0
30.0
$ $

23.5
in Billion

30.0
25.0 23.5
in Billion

25.0
20.0
13.1
20.0
15.0
13.1
15.0
10.0 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.4
10.0
5.0 5.4 0.5 5.2 5.4 0.5 2 m$ 5.2 5.4 0.5 3 m$
3 m$
5.0 2 m$
0.0 0.5 3 m$ 0.5 2 m$ 0.5 3 m$
2 m$
0.0 Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based
Geo-based Solar-based Wind-based
Geo Hydro MSW Solar Wind
Geo Hydro MSW Solar Wind

Figure 13. Each RES’s contribution to the installation cost of each energy mix.
Figure 13.
Figure 13. Each
Each RES’s
RES’scontribution
contributiontotothe
theinstallation cost
installation of each
cost energy
of each mix.mix.
energy
Electricity is vital to support economic development and to meet societal needs [44].
Electricity
Both
However, is vital
economic
generating and to environmental
support
electricity economic
from asdevelopment
RES,KPIs indicate
this study that and
thetoproposed
proposed, meet societal
needs needs [44].
towind-based
be refined energy
and
However,
mix
correspond generating
is morewithfeasible electricity
than the
economic, from RES,
otherpolicy
energy, as
mixes.and this
Windstudy
any energyproposed, needs
generation
other types to be
offers
of support refined and
a reliable
[45]. It is be- and
correspond
affordable
cause withtransition
pathway
an energy economic, isenergy,
to reduce policy
emissions
considered and
as[7]. any indication
This
a complex, other typescanof support [45]. It is dy-
be of considerable
multi-stakeholder, long-term, be-value
cause
to an energy
the government
namic transition
and structural is considered
oftransformation as
Indonesia in developing a complex, multi-stakeholder,
its energy generation.
[44]. Also, decarbonization long-term,
In addition,
in the energy dy-
sector with
re- its
namic the
economic
quires andand
structural
rapid transformation
environmental
and enormous [44]. Also,
indicators,
deployment this
of alldecarbonization
energy
efficientmixand in the
canclean
broaden energy
energythe sector re-
options
technologies for the
quiresIt the rapid and theenormous deployment of all efficient and clean energy technologies
Indonesian
[46]. government
is because to choose
transition can which
only bescenario
reached fits best
safely if with
power the financial
systems canbudget
ensure and
[46].balance
the It is because thegeneration
transition and
can demand
only be reached safely if power systems can ensure
objective of between
the development, increasing the[8].
likelihood of implementation.
the balance between generation and demand [8].
Electricity is vital to support economic development and to meet societal needs [44].
3.5. Sensitivity
However, Analysiselectricity
generating of the Wind-Based
from RES,Energy Mix study proposed, needs to be refined and
as this
3.5. Sensitivity Analysis of the Wind-Based Energy Mix
correspond withfrom
The results economic, energy, policy
the sensitivity analysisand
showanythat
other typesclimate
extreme of support [45]. Itdue
conditions is because
to
Thechange
climate resultsdofrom
notthe sensitivity
seriously affectanalysis
the show thatenergy
extreme
mixclimate conditions due to
an energy transition is considered as a wind-based as the most
complex, multi-stakeholder, feasible
long-term, mix
dynamic
climate
among change do not
the significant seriously affect
energy mixes. the wind-based
In extreme energy mix
climate conditions,as the most
electricityfeasible mix
generation
and structural transformation [44]. Also, decarbonization in the energy sector requires the
among theby
decreases significant energy
only 5% deploymentmixes.and
(3.56 TWh), In extreme
ROI climate
becomes conditions, electricity generation
rapid and enormous of all efficient and120% instead
clean energyoftechnologies
139% (Figure 13). It is
[46].
decreases by only 5% (3.56 TWh), and ROI becomes 120% instead of 139% (Figure 13).
because the transition can only be reached safely if power systems can ensure the balance
between generation and demand [8].

3.5. Sensitivity Analysis of the Wind-Based Energy Mix

The results from the sensitivity analysis show that extreme climate conditions due to
climate change do not seriously affect the wind-based energy mix as the most feasible mix
among the significant energy mixes. In extreme climate conditions, electricity generation
decreases by only 5% (3.56 TWh), and ROI becomes 120% instead of 139% (Figure 13). Thus,
the energy mix is still resilient enough to meet the demand (see Supplementary Materials
S7). To cover the 5% deficit, Java and Bali islands still have the option to increase the capacity
by 0.4 GW from wind energy or another RES that is independent of climate conditions. As
a result of additional capacities, the CAPEX and OPEX will increase according to the type
of RES chosen. This research excludes the calculation of additional costs for extra capacity
due to extreme climate, and it depends on the Indonesian government’s choice.
The sensitivity analysis results on wind energy capacity also depict a similar situation,
where the 10% decrease in wind energy capacity in actual climate conditions has an insignif-
icant impact on KPIs. The changes in the KPIs vary according to different modifications, but
the value is relatively small. With a superior result on economic and environmental KPIs,
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 16 of 19

the wind-based energy mix in this research is feasible and resilient to meet the household
electricity demand in Java and Bali.
This study offers diversified decarbonization options using the available RES potential.
It promotes flexibility through multiple energy sources, replicable in various global settings.
This data-driven exploration aligns with the net-zero emissions goal by enabling clean and
affordable energy. The systematic approach to design and model the energy mix can also
be implemented in other areas, cities or regions worldwide with different scales.

4. Conclusions
This study refines, as an example, the initiative of the Indonesian government to
accelerate the share of RES in their energy supply. The results of this study revealed that
Java and Bali could meet their domestic electricity demand only by harnessing the energy
from RES, supporting the goal of the Indonesian government. The required capacities for
meeting the domestic electricity demand varied in the scenarios investigated. Depending
on the scenario, the range of the required capacity was from 8.32 to 19.10 GW. By adding
up to around 1.15–2.64 GW of installed capacity each year, the energy mixes could meet
the electricity demand’s growth over the years due to future development up to 2050. This
study also indicated a need for energy storage, but a systematic operational design of the
energy storage was beyond the focus of this study. Thus, the upcoming research needs to
elaborate on the energy storage part.
Hourly-based electricity generation analysis showed that a solar-based energy mix
was preferable during the dry season, while a wind-based energy mix was more favorable
overall based on economic and environmental KPIs. A scenario analysis with a 10%
reduction in wind capacity showed that a wind-based energy mix could still meet the
electricity demand. The economic and environmental consequences of choosing different
RES shares in the energy mixes until 2050 revealed that the energy mixes are feasible to
be installed in the islands. These findings emphasize the need for a thorough capacity
development of RES in order to match the islands’ conditions.

Supplementary Materials: The following supporting information can be downloaded at: https:
//www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/en16227461/s1. S1. Domestic electricity demand. S2. Electricity
Generation from Wind Turbines. S3. Diagram of scenarios used in this study. S4. Electricity generation
and storage requirements on Java and Bali islands in 2020. S5 Annual capacity development for each
source. S6. Annual capacity development. S7. Sensitivity analysis of the wind-based energy mix.
References [19,47–49] are cited in the supplementary materials.
Author Contributions: Writing—original draft preparation, D.D.; writing—review and editing,
D.D., H.C., K.K.-R. and K.J.K.; visualization, D.D.; supervision, H.C., K.K.-R. and K.J.K.; project
administration, D.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: The research and the APC were funded by The Ministry of Education, Culture, Research
and Technology of Indonesia with grant number 0120211000395042039023.
Data Availability Statement: The data on domestic electricity demand is cited from the annual report
of electricity sales in 2020 of the state-owned enterprise for electricity (PLN). It is an open source
and available online via: https://web.pln.co.id/statics/uploads/2021/07/Statistik-PLN-2020.pdf
(accessed on 15 April 2022). Meanwhile, the hourly climatological data of Java and Bali islands is
derived from an open source [18] and available online at: https://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_tools/en/
(accessed on 15 April 2022).
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Energies 2023, 16, 7461 17 of 19

Nomenclature

Symbols
A Swept area of rotor blades (m2 )
C0 Annual benefits ($)
CO2 Carbon dioxide
Cp Power coefficient
EelecB Electricity balance (TWh)
EelecD Electricity demand (TWh)
EelecG Electricity from geothermal energy (GWh)
Eelec H Electricity from hydropower (GWh)
Eelec M Electricity from MSW (GWh)
EelecS Electricity from solar energy (GWh)
EelecT Electricity supply (TWh)
EelecT (1,2,3) Electricity supply on sensitivity analysis (TWh)
EelecW Electricity from wind energy (GWh)
hhub Hub height (m)
NPV Net present value of the revenue ($)
Pt Generated power (Watt)
PV Benefits’ present value ($)
r Discount rate (%)
t Time (year)
ρ Air density (kg/m3 )
v Wind speed (m/s) at hub height
vhub Wind speed at hub height (m/s)
v10 Wind speed at 10 m (m/s)
Acronyms
BOE Barrel of Oil Equivalent
BPS Central Bureau of Statistics
CAPEX Investment/installation cost
DEN National Energy Council
ESDM The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resource
IESR The Institute for Essential Services Reform
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
KPI Key Performance Indicator
LCOE Levelized Cost of Electricity
MSW Municipal Solid Waste
OPEX Operation and Maintenance Cost
PLN State-owned Electricity Company
PV Photovoltaic
PVGIS Photovoltaic Geographical Information
RES Renewable Energy Sources
ROI Return on Investment
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
WTTP Waste Thermal Power Plants

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