Professional Documents
Culture Documents
v
xii Contents
When I was a student, I fell in love with microeconomics because it cleared up many
mysteries about the world and provided the means to answer new questions. I wrote
this book to illustrate that economic theory has practical, problem-solving uses and
is not an empty academic exercise.
This book shows how individuals, policy makers, lawyers and judges, and firms
can use microeconomic tools to analyze and resolve problems. For example, students
learn that
■ individuals can draw on microeconomic theories when deciding about issues
such as whether to invest and whether to sign a contract that pegs prices to the
government’s measure of inflation;
■ policy makers (and voters) can employ microeconomics to predict the impact
of taxes, regulations, and other measures before they are enacted;
■ lawyers and judges use microeconomics in antitrust, discrimination, and con-
tract cases; and
■ firms apply microeconomic principles to produce at minimum cost and maxi-
mize profit, select strategies, decide whether to buy from a market or to produce
internally, and write contracts to provide optimal incentives for employees.
My experience in teaching microeconomics for the departments of economics at MIT;
the University of Pennsylvania; and the University of California, Berkeley; the Depart-
ment of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Berkeley; and the Wharton Business
School has convinced me that students prefer this emphasis on real-world issues.
Features
This book differs from other microeconomics texts in three main ways:
■ It places greater emphasis than other texts on modern theories—such as indus-
trial organization theories, game theory, transaction cost theory, information
theory, contract theory, and behavioral economics—that are useful in analyzing
actual markets.
■ It uses real-world economic examples to present the basic theory and offers
extensive Applications to a variety of real-world situations.
■ It employs step-by-step problem-based learning to demonstrate how to use
microeconomic theory to solve business problems and analyze policy issues.
Modern Theories
This book has all of the standard economic theory, of course. However, what sets it
apart is its emphasis on modern theories that are particularly useful for understanding
how firms behave and the effects of public policy.
xiv
Preface xv
Real-World Economics
This book demonstrates that economics is practical and provides a useful way to
understand actual markets and firms’ and consumers’ decisions in two ways. First,
it presents the basic theory using models estimated with real-world data. Second, it
uses the theory to analyze hundreds of real-world applications.
Using Estimated Models to Illustrate Theory. The basic theory is presented using
estimated demand curves, supply curves, production functions, and cost functions in
most chapters. For example, students see how imported oil limits pricing by U.S. oil
producers using estimated supply and demand curves, derive a Japanese beer manu-
facturer’s cost curve based on an estimated production function, examine regulation
of natural gas monopolies using estimated demand and cost curves, and analyze
oligopoly firms’ strategies using estimated demand curves and cost and profit data
from the real-world rivalries between United Airlines and American Airlines and
between Coke and Pepsi.
Applications. Applications use economic theory to predict the price effect of allow-
ing drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge based on estimated demand and
supply curves, demonstrate how iTunes price increases affect music downloads using
survey data, explain why some top-end designers limit the number of designer bags
customers can buy, measure the value of using the Internet, and analyze how a tariff
on chickens affects the importation of cars.
Problem-Based Learning
People, firms, and policy makers have to solve economic problems daily. This book
uses a problem-solving approach to demonstrate how economic theory can help them
make good decisions.
Solved Problems. After the introductory chapter, each chapter provides an average
of over five Solved Problems. Each Solved Problem poses a qualitative or quantita-
tive question and then uses a step-by-step approach to model good problem-solving
xvi Preface
techniques. These issues range from whether Peter Guber and Joe Lacob should
have bought the Golden State Warriors, how to determine Intel’s and AMD’s profit-
maximizing quantities and prices using their estimated demand curves and marginal
costs, and how regulating a monopoly’s price affects consumers and firms.
Challenges. Starting with Chapter 2, each chapter begins with a Challenge that
presents information about an important, current real-world issue and concludes
with a series of questions about that material. At the end of the chapter, a Challenge
Solution answers these questions using methods presented in that chapter. That is, the
Challenge combines the approaches of Applications and Solved Problems to motivate
the material in the chapter. The issues covered include the effects from introducing
genetically modified foods, why Americans buy more e-books than do Germans, com-
paring rationing water to raising its price during droughts, whether higher salaries
for star athletes raise ticket prices, whether it pays to go to college, and how Heinz
can use sales to increase its profit on ketchup.
End-of-Chapter Questions. Starting with Chapter 2, each chapter ends with an
extensive set of questions, many of which are based on real-world problems. Each
Solved Problem and Challenge has at least one associated end-of-chapter question
that references them and asks students to extend or reapply their analyses. Many
of the questions are related to the Applications. Answers to selected end-of-chapter
questions appear at the end of the book, and all of the end-of-chapter questions are
available in MyEconLab for self-assessment, homework, or testing.
Starting with Chapter 2, the end of each chapter has an average of over 40 verbal,
graphical, and mathematical Questions. This edition has 769 Questions, 61 more
than in the previous edition. Over 27% of the Questions are new or updated. Many
of these Questions are based on recent real-life events and issues drawn from news-
papers, journal articles, and other sources.
Applications
The Seventh Edition has 131 Applications, 5 more than in the previous edition. Of
these, 46% are new and 45% are updated, so that 91% are new or updated. The vast
majority of the Applications cover events in 2012 and 2013, a few deal with historical
events, and the remaining ones examine timeless material.
To make room for the new Applications, 27 older Applications from the Sixth
Edition were moved to MyEconLab. Also, several new ones have been added to the
hundreds of Applications and other materials in MyEconLab.
Behavioral Economics
The Seventh Edition has a revised treatment of behavioral economics in the chapters
on consumer choice, monopoly, interest rates, and uncertainty. It also adds a new
behavioral economics section in the game theory chapter.
Alternative Organizations
Because instructors differ as to the order in which they cover material, this text has
been designed for maximum flexibility. The most common approach to teaching
microeconomics is to follow the sequence of the chapters in the first half of this
book: supply and demand (Chapters 2 and 3), consumer theory (Chapters 4 and 5),
the theory of the firm (Chapters 6 and 7), and the competitive model (Chapters 8
and 9). Many instructors then cover monopoly (Chapter 11), price discrimination
(Chapter 12), oligopoly (Chapters 13 and 14), input markets (Chapter 15), uncer-
tainty (Chapter 17), and externalities (Chapter 18).
A common variant is to present uncertainty (Sections 17.1 through 17.3) immedi-
ately after consumer theory. Many instructors like to take up welfare issues between
discussions of the competitive model and noncompetitive models, as Chapter 10, on
general equilibrium and economic welfare, does. Alternatively, that chapter may be
covered at the end of the course. Faculty can assign material on factor markets earlier
(Section 15.1 could follow the chapters on competition, and the remaining sections
could follow Chapter 11). The material in Chapters 14–20 can be presented in a
variety of orders, though Chapter 20 should follow Chapter 19 if both are covered,
and Section 17.4 should follow Chapter 16.
Many business school courses skip consumer theory (and possibly some aspects of
supply and demand, such as Chapter 3) to allow more time for consideration of the
topics covered in the second half of this book. Business school faculty may want to
place particular emphasis on game and theory strategies (Chapter 14), capital markets
(Chapter 16), and modern contract theory (Chapters 19 and 20).
Optional, technically demanding sections are marked with a star (★). Subsequent
sections and chapters can be understood even if these sections are skipped.
MyEconLab
MyEconLab’s powerful assessment and tutorial system works hand-in-hand with this book.
students practice what they learn, test their understanding, and pursue a personal-
ized study plan generated from their performance on sample tests and quizzes. In
Homework or Study Plan mode, students have access to a wealth of tutorial features,
including the following:
■ Instant feedback on exercises taken directly from the text helps students under-
stand and apply the concepts.
■ Links to the eText version of this textbook allow the student to quickly revisit
a concept or an explanation.
■ Enhanced Pearson eText, available within the online course materials and
offline via an iPad/Android app, allows instructors and students to highlight,
bookmark, and take notes.
■ Learning aids help students analyze a problem in small steps, much the same
way an instructor would do during office hours.
■ Temporary Access for students who are awaiting financial aid provides a grace
period of temporary access.
Experiments in MyEconLab
Experiments are a fun and engaging way to promote active learning and mastery of
important economic concepts. Pearson’s Experiment program is flexible and easy for
instructors and students to use.
■ All of the end-of-chapter questions are available for assignment and auto-grading.
■ All of the Solved Problems are available for assignment and auto-grading.
■ Test Bank questions are available for assignment or testing.
■ The Custom Exercise Builder allows instructors the flexibility of creating their
own problems for assignments.
■ The powerful Gradebook records each student’s performance and time spent
on the tests, study plan, and homework and can generate reports by student,
class, or chapter.
■ Advanced Communication Tools enable students and instructors to communi-
cate through email, discussion board, chat, and ClassLive.
■ Customization options provide new and enhanced ways to share documents,
add content, and rename menu items.
■ A prebuilt course option provides a turn-key method for instructors to create
a MyEconLab course that includes assignments by chapter.
xx Preface
Supplements
A full range of supplementary materials to support teaching and learning accompa-
nies this book.
■ The Online Instructor’s Manual revised by Jennifer Steele has many useful and
creative teaching ideas. It also offers a chapter outline, additional discussion
questions, additional questions and problems, and solutions for all additional
questions and problems.
■ The Online Solutions Manual provides solutions for all the end-of-chapter ques-
tions in the text.
■ The Online Test Bank by Shana McDermott of the University of New Mexico,
James Swanson of the University of Central Missouri, and Lourenço Paz of
Syracuse University features problems of varying levels of complexity, suitable
for homework assignments and exams. Many of these multiple-choice questions
draw on current events.
■ The Computerized Test Bank reproduces the Test Bank material in the
TestGen software, which is available for Windows and Macintosh. With
TestGen, instructors can easily edit existing questions, add questions, generate
tests, and print the tests in a variety of formats.
■ The Online PowerPoint Presentation by Ting Levy of Florida Atlantic
University contains text figures and tables, as well as lecture notes. These
slides allow instructors to walk through examples from the text during in-class
presentations.
These teaching resources are available online for download at the Instructor
Resource Center, www.pearsonhighered.com/perloff, and on the catalog page for
Microeconomics.
Acknowledgments
My greatest debt is to my students. My students at MIT, the University of Pennsyl-
vania, and the University of California, Berkeley, patiently dealt with my various
approaches to teaching them microeconomics and made useful (and generally polite)
suggestions.
The various editions have benefited from the early work by the two best devel-
opment editors in the business, Jane Tufts and Sylvia Mallory. Jane Tufts reviewed
drafts of the first edition of this book for content and presentation. By showing me
how to present the material as clearly, orderly, and thoroughly as possible, she greatly
strengthened this text. Sylvia Mallory worked valiantly to improve my writing style
and helped to shape and improve every aspect of the book’s contents and appearance
in each of the first four editions.
I am extremely grateful to Adrienne D’Ambrosio, Executive Acquisitions Editor,
and Sarah Dumouchelle, Editorial Project Manager, at Pearson, who helped me plan
this revision and made very valuable suggestions at each stage of the process. Adri-
enne, as usual, skillfully handled all aspects of planning, writing, and producing this
textbook. In addition, Sarah made sure that the new material in this edition is clear,
editing all the chapters, and assisted in arranging the supplements program.
Over the years, many excellent research assistants—Hayley Chouinard, R. Scott
Hacker, Guojun He, Nancy McCarthy, Enrico Moretti, Lisa Perloff, Asa Sajise, Hugo
Salgado, Gautam Sethi, Edward Shen, Klaas van ’t Veld, and Ximing Wu—worked
hard to collect facts, develop examples and figures, and check material.
Preface xxi
Many people were very generous in providing me with data, models, and exam-
ples, including among others: Thomas Bauer (University of Bochum), Peter Berck
(University of California, Berkeley), James Brander (University of British Columbia),
Leemore Dafny (Northwestern University), Lucas Davis (University of California,
Berkeley), James Dearden (Lehigh University), Farid Gasmi (Université des Sci-
ences Sociales), Avi Goldfarb (University of Toronto), Claudia Goldin (Harvard
University), Rachel Goodhue (University of California, Davis), William Greene
(New York University), Nile Hatch (University of Illinois), Larry Karp (Uni-
versity of California, Berkeley), Ryan Kellogg (University of Michigan), Arthur
Kennickell (Federal Reserve, Washington), Fahad Khalil (University of Washington),
Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan), Christopher Knittel (University of California,
Davis), Jean-Jacques Laffont (deceased), Ulrike Malmendier (University of California,
Berkeley), Karl D. Meilke (University of Guelph), Eric Muehlegger (Harvard Univer-
sity), Giancarlo Moschini (Iowa State University), Michael Roberts (North Carolina
State University), Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia University), Junichi Suzuki (Uni-
versity of Toronto), Catherine Tucker (MIT), Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago),
Quang Vuong (Université des Sciences Sociales, Toulouse, and University of Southern
California), and Joel Waldfogel (University of Minnesota).
Writing a textbook is hard work for everyone involved. I am grateful to the many
teachers of microeconomics who spent untold hours reading and commenting on
proposals and chapters. Many of the best ideas in this book are due to them.
I am particularly grateful to Jim Brander of the University of British Columbia who
provided material for Chapters 13 and 14, has given me many deep and insightful
comments on many editions of this book, and with whom I wrote another, related
book. Much of the new material in this edition was jointly written with him. My
other biggest debt is to James Dearden, Lehigh University, who has made extremely
insightful comments on all prior editions and wrote some of the end-of-chapter
questions.
In earlier editions, Peter Berck made major contributions to Chapter 16. Charles
F. Mason made particularly helpful comments on many chapters. Larry Karp helped
me to develop two of the sections and carefully reviewed the content of several oth-
ers. Robert Whaples, Wake Forest University, read many chapters in earlier editions
and offered particularly useful comments. He also wrote the first draft of one of my
favorite Applications.
I am grateful to the following people who reviewed the book or sent me valuable
suggestions at various stages:
Patrick Emerson, University of Colorado, Denver Silve Parviainen, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Xin Fang, Hawai’i Pacific University Sharon Pearson, University of Alberta
Bernard Fortin, Université Laval Anita Alves Pena, Colorado State University
Tom Friedland, Rutgers University Ingrid Peters-Fransen, Wilfrid Laurier University
Roy Gardner, Indiana University Jaishankar Raman, Valparaiso University
Rod Garratt, University of California, Santa Barbara Sunder Ramaswamy, Middlebury College
Wei Ge, Bucknell University Lee Redding, University of Michigan, Dearborn
Lisa Giddings, University of Wisconsin, La Crosse David Reitman, Department of Justice
J. Fred Giertz, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Luca Rigotti, Tillburg University
Haynes Goddard, University of Cincinnati S. Abu Turab Rizvi, University of Vermont
Steven Goldman, University of California, Berkeley Bee Yan Aw Roberts, Pennsylvania State University
Julie Gonzalez, University of California, Santa Cruz Richard Rogers, Ashland University
Rachel Goodhue, University of California, Davis Nancy Rose, Sloan School of Business, MIT
Srihari Govindan, University of Western Ontario Joshua Rosenbloom, University of Kansas
Gareth Green, Seattle University Roy Ruffin, University of Houston
Thomas A. Gresik, Pennsylvania State University Matthew Rutledge, Boston College
Jonathan Gruber, MIT Alfonso Sanchez-Penalver, University of Massachusetts,
Steffan Habermalz, University of Nebraska, Kearney Boston
Claire Hammond, Wake Forest University George Santopietro, Radford College
John A. Hansen, State University of New York, Fredonia David Sappington, University of Florida
Philip S. Heap, James Madison University Rich Sexton, University of California, Davis
L. Dean Hiebert, Illinois State University Quazi Shahriar, San Diego State University
Kathryn Ierulli, University of Illinois, Chicago Jacques Siegers, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Mike Ingham, University of Salford, U.K. Alasdair Smith, University of Sussex
Samia Islam, Boise State University William Doyle Smith, University of Texas at El Paso
D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago Philip Sorenson, Florida State University
Erik Jonasson, Lund University, Sweden Peter Soule, Park College
Charles Kahn, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Robert Stearns, University of Maryland
Vibha Kapuria-Foreman, Colorado College Jennifer Lynn Steele, Washington State University
Paula M. Kazi, Bucknell University Shankar Subramanian, Cornell University
Carrie Kerekes, Florida Gulf Coast University Albert J. Sumell, Youngstown State University
Alan Kessler, Providence College Beck A. Taylor, Baylor University
Kristin Kiesel, California State University, Sacramento Scott Templeton, Clemson University
Kate Krause, University of New Mexico Mark L. Tendall, Stanford University
Robert Lemke, Lake Forest College Justin Tevie, University of New Mexico
Jing Li, University of Pennsylvania Wade Thomas, State University of New York, Oneonta
Qihong Liu, University of Oklahoma Judith Thornton, University of Washington
Zhou Lu, City College of New York Vitor Trindade, Syracuse University
Fred Luk, University of California, Los Angeles Nora Underwood, University of California, Davis
Robert Main, Butler University Burcin Unel, University of Florida
David Malueg, Tulane University Kay Unger, University of Montana
Steve Margolis, North Carolina State University Alan van der Hilst, University of Washington
Kate Matraves, Michigan State University Bas van der Klaauw, Free University Amsterdam and
James Meehan, Colby College Tinbergen Institute
Claudio Mezzetti, University of North Carolina, Andrew Vassallo, Rutgers University
Chapel Hill Jacob L. Vigdor, Duke University
Chun-Hui Miao, University of South Carolina Peter von Allmen, Moravian College
Janet Mitchell, Cornell University Eleanor T. von Ende, Texas Tech University
Felix Munoz-Garcia, Washington State University Curt Wells, Lund University
Babu Nahata, University of Louisville Lawrence J. White, New York University
Kathryn Nantz, Fairfield University John Whitehead, East Carolina University
Jawwad Noor, Boston University Colin Wright, Claremont McKenna College
Yuka Ohno, Rice University Bruce Wydick, University of San Francisco
Patrick B. O’Neil, University of North Dakota Peter Zaleski, Villanova University
John Palmer, University of Western Ontario Artie Zillante, Florida State University
Christos Papahristodoulou, Uppsala University Mark Zupan, University of Arizona
Preface xxiii
In addition, I thank Bob Solow, the world’s finest economics teacher, who showed
me how to simplify models without losing their essence. I’ve also learned a great deal
over the years about economics and writing from my coauthors on other projects,
especially Dennis Carlton (my coauthor on Modern Industrial Organization), Jackie
Persons, Steve Salop, Michael Wachter, Larry Karp, Peter Berck, Amos Golan, and
Dan Rubinfeld (whom I thank for still talking to me despite my decision to write
this book).
It was a pleasure to work with the good people at Pearson, who were incredibly
helpful in producing this book. Marjorie Williams and Barbara Rifkin signed me to
write it. I would like to thank Donna Battista, Editor-in-Chief for Business Publishing,
and Denise Clinton, Publisher for MyEconLab, who were instrumental in making
the entire process work. Meredith Gertz did her usual outstanding job of supervising
the production process, assembling the extended publishing team, and managing the
design of the handsome interior. She makes the entire process as smooth as possible.
I thank Jonathan Boylan for the cover design. I also want to acknowledge, with
appreciation, the efforts of Melissa Honig, Noel Lotz, and Courtney Kamauf in
developing MyEconLab, the online assessment and tutorial system for the book.
Gillian Hall and the rest of the team at The Aardvark Group Publishing Services
have my sincere gratitude for designing the book and keeping the project on track
and on schedule. As always, I’m particularly thankful to work with Gillian, who is
wonderfully flexible and committed to producing the best book possible. Rebecca
Greenberg did a superior copyediting for this edition—and made many important
contributions to the content.
Finally, and most importantly, I thank my wife, Jackie Persons, and daughter,
Lisa Perloff, for their great patience and support during the nearly endless writing
process. And I apologize for misusing their names—and those of my other relatives
and friends—in the book!
J. M. P.
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Introduction
An Economist’s Theory of Reincarnation: If you’re good, you come back on a
higher level. Cats come back as dogs, dogs come back as horses, and people—
if they’ve been really good like George Washington—come back as money.
1
If each of us could get all the food, clothing, and toys we wanted without work-
ing, no one would study economics. Unfortunately, most of the good things in life
are scarce—we can’t all have as much as we want. Thus, scarcity is the mother of
economics.
Microeconomics is the study of how individuals and firms make themselves as well microeconomics
off as possible in a world of scarcity and the consequences of those individual deci- the study of how indi-
viduals and firms make
sions for markets and the entire economy. In studying microeconomics, we examine themselves as well off
how individual consumers and firms make decisions and how the interaction of many as possible in a world of
individual decisions affects markets and the entire economy. scarcity and the conse-
Microeconomics is often called price theory to emphasize the important role that quences of those individ-
ual decisions for markets
prices play. Microeconomics explains how the actions of all buyers and sellers deter- and the entire economy
mine prices and how prices influence the decisions and actions of individual buyers
and sellers.
1. Microeconomics: The Allocation of Scarce Resources. Microeconomics is the study of In this chapter, we
the allocation of scarce resources. examine three main
topics
2. Models. Economists use models to make testable predictions.
1
2 CHAPTER 1 Introduction
Trade-Offs
People make trade-offs because they can’t have everything. A society faces three key
trade-offs:
■ Which goods and services to produce: If a society produces more cars, it must
produce fewer of other goods and services, because there are only so many
resources—workers, raw materials, capital, and energy—available to produce
goods.
■ How to produce: To produce a given level of output, a firm must use more
of one input if it uses less of another input. For example, cracker and cookie
manufacturers switch between palm oil and coconut oil, depending on which
is less expensive.
■ Who gets the goods and services: The more of society’s goods and services you
get, the less someone else gets.
1.2 Models
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
—Albert Einstein
To explain how individuals and firms allocate resources and how market prices are
model
a description of the rela-
determined, economists use a model: a description of the relationship between two
tionship between two or or more economic variables. Economists also use models to predict how a change in
more economic variables one variable will affect another.
Application According to an income threshold model, no one who has an income level below a
particular threshold buys a particular consumer durable, such as a refrigerator or car.
Income Threshold The theory also holds that almost everyone whose income is above that threshold
Model and China buys the product.
If this theory is correct, we predict that, as most people’s incomes rise above the
threshold in emergent economies, consumer durable purchases will increase from
near zero to large numbers virtually overnight. This prediction is consistent with evi-
dence from Malaysia, where the income threshold for buying a car is about $4,000.
In China, incomes have risen rapidly and now exceed the threshold levels for many
types of durable goods. As a result, many experts correctly predicted that the greatest
consumer durable goods sales boom in history would take place there. Anticipating
this boom, many companies have greatly increased their investments in durable goods
manufacturing plants in China. Annual foreign direct investments have gone from
$916 million a year in 1983 to $116 billion in 2011. In expectation of this growth
potential, even traditional political opponents of the People’s Republic—Taiwan,
South Korea, and Russia—are investing in China.
One of the most desirable durable goods is a car. Li Rifu, a 46-year-old Chinese
farmer and watch repairman, thought that buying a car would improve the odds that
his 22- and 24-year-old sons would find girlfriends, marry, and produce grandchil-
dren. Soon after Mr. Li purchased his Geely King Kong for the equivalent of $9,000,
both sons met girlfriends, and his older son got married. Four-fifths of all new cars
sold in China are bought by first-time customers. An influx of first-time buyers was
responsible for China’s ninefold increase in car sales from 2000 to 2009. By 2010,
China became the second largest producer of automobiles in the world, trailing
only Germany. In addition, foreign automobile companies built Chinese plants. For
example, Ford invested $600 million in its Chongqing factory in 2012.1
Simplifications by Assumption
We stated the income threshold model in words, but we could have presented it
using graphs or mathematics. Regardless of how the model is described, an economic
model is a simplification of reality that contains only its most important features.
Without simplifications, it is difficult to make predictions because the real world is
too complex to analyze fully.
By analogy, if the manual accompanying your new TiVo recorder has a diagram
showing the relationships between all the parts in the TiVo, the diagram will be
overwhelming and useless. In contrast, if it shows a photo of the lights on the front
1The sources for Applications are available at the back of this book.
4 CHAPTER 1 Introduction
of the machine with labels describing the significance of each light, the manual is
useful and informative.
Economists make many assumptions to simplify their models.2 When using the
income threshold model to explain car purchasing behavior in China, we assume that
factors other than income, such as the color of cars, are irrelevant to the decision to
buy cars. Therefore, we ignore the color of cars that are sold in China in describing
the relationship between average income and the number of cars consumers want. If
this assumption is correct, by ignoring color, we make our analysis of the auto market
simpler without losing important details. If we’re wrong and these ignored issues are
important, our predictions may be inaccurate.
Throughout this book, we start with strong assumptions to simplify our models.
Later, we add complexities. For example, in most of the book, we assume that consum-
ers know the price each firm charges. In many markets, such as the New York Stock
Exchange, this assumption is realistic. It is not realistic in other markets, such as the
market for used automobiles, in which consumers do not know the prices each firm
charges. To devise an accurate model for markets in which consumers have limited
information, we add consumer uncertainty about price into the model in Chapter 19.
Testing Theories
Blore’s Razor: When given a choice between two theories, take the one that is
funnier.
Economic theory is the development and use of a model to test hypotheses, which
are predictions about cause and effect. We are interested in models that make clear,
testable predictions, such as “If the price rises, the quantity demanded falls.” A theory
that said “People’s behavior depends on their tastes, and their tastes change randomly
at random intervals” is not very useful because it does not lead to testable predictions.
Economists test theories by checking whether predictions are correct. If a predic-
tion does not come true, they may reject the theory.3 Economists use a model until
it is refuted by evidence or until a better model is developed.
A good model makes sharp, clear predictions that are consistent with reality.
Some very simple models make sharp predictions that are incorrect, and other more
complex models make ambiguous predictions—any outcome is possible—which are
untestable. The skill in model building is to chart a middle ground.
The purpose of this book is to teach you how to think like an economist in the sense
that you can build testable theories using economic models or apply existing models
to new situations. Although economists think alike in that they develop and use test-
able models, they often disagree. One may present a logically consistent argument that
prices will go up next quarter. Another, using a different but equally logical theory, may
contend that prices will fall. If the economists are reasonable, they agree that pure logic
alone cannot resolve their dispute. Indeed, they agree that they’ll have to use empirical
evidence—facts about the real world—to find out which prediction is correct.
2An economist, an engineer, and a physicist are stranded on a desert island with a can of beans but no
can opener. How should they open the can? The engineer proposes hitting the can with a rock. The
physicist suggests building a fire under it to build up pressure and burst the can open. The economist
thinks for a while and then says, “Assume that we have a can opener. . . .”
3We can use evidence on whether a theory’s predictions are correct to refute the theory but not to
prove it. If a model’s prediction is inconsistent with what actually happened, the model must be
wrong, so we reject it. Even if the model’s prediction is consistent with reality, however, the model’s
prediction may be correct for the wrong reason. Hence we cannot prove that the model is correct—we
can only fail to reject it.
1.2 Models 5
Although one economist’s model may differ from another’s, a key assumption in
most microeconomic models is that individuals allocate their scarce resources so as
to make themselves as well off as possible. Of all affordable combinations of goods,
consumers pick the bundle of goods that gives them the most possible enjoyment.
Firms try to maximize their profits given limited resources and existing technol-
ogy. That resources are limited plays a crucial role in these models. Were it not for
scarcity, people could consume unlimited amounts of goods and services, and sellers
could become rich beyond limit.
As we show throughout this book, the maximizing behavior of individuals and
firms determines society’s three main allocation decisions: which goods are produced,
how they are produced, and who gets them. For example, diamond-studded pocket
combs will be sold only if firms find it profitable to sell them. The firms will make
and sell these combs only if consumers value the combs at least as much as it costs
the firm to produce them. Consumers will buy the combs only if they get more plea-
sure from the combs than they would from the other goods they could buy with the
same resources.
FOOTNOTES
[959] ‘Con este ... vino vn Francisco Lopez, vezino, y Regidor que fue de
Guatimala.’ Bernal Diaz, Hist. Verdad., 113. Vetancurt assumes that Pedro del
Castillo—Diaz calls him ‘el Almirante Pedro Cauallero’—secured Barba and his
vessel. Teatro Mex., pt. iii. 148; Cortés, Residencia, ii. 165.
[960] ‘El capitã Diego de Camargo,’ says Herrera; but Bernal Diaz explains that
this man stepped into the captaincy on the murder of ‘fulano Alvarez Pinedo,’ at
Pánuco. ‘Dixeron, que el Capitan Camargo auia sido Fraile Dominico, e que auia
hecho profession.’ Hist. Verdad., 114.
[962] ‘Muerto diez y siete ó diez y ocho cristianos, y herido otros muchos.
Asimismo ... muerto siete caballos.’ Cortés, Cartas, 144. Bernal Diaz assumes
that the whole attacking force was killed and some vessels destroyed. ‘Dexaron
vna carauela,’ says Herrera.
[963] Herrera states that hunger caused the land expedition to abandon the
vessels some twenty leagues above Almería. The people from the wrecked
caravel were taken on board the last vessel. dec. ii. lib. x. cap. xviii. Cortés leaves
the impression that both vessels arrived at Villa Rica, perhaps because the one
was wrecked so near it. ‘Vn nauio ... y traia sobre sesenta soldados.’ Bernal Diaz,
Hist. Verdad., 114. This may include the land party, but not the sailors.
[964] ‘Con hasta treinta hombres de mar y tierra.’ Cortés, Cartas, 154. ‘Sus
soldados, que eran mas de cincuenta, y mas siete cauallos,’ says Bernal Diaz,
Hist. Verdad., 114; and, since Cortés would be less apt to indicate large
accessions, he may be correct.
[965] ‘Este fue el mejor socorro.... Diaz de Auz sirvió muy bien a su Magestad en
todo lo que se ofreciò en las guerras, ... traxo pleyto despues, sobre el pleyto de
la mitad de Mestitan, ... conque le den la parte de lo que rentare el pueblo mas de
dos mil y quinientos pesos.’ Bernal Diaz, Hist. Verdad., 114-15. He was excluded
from the town itself, owing to cruel treatment of Indians.
[966] ‘El señor de aquel rio y tierra, que se dice Pánuco, se habia dado por vasallo
de V. M., en cuyo reconocimiento me habia enviado á la ciudad de Tenuxtitan, con
sus mensajeros, ciertas cosas.’ Cortés, Cartas, 144-5. But this is probably a mere
assertion, since the Spanish expeditions had never been higher than Almería, and
the cacique could have had no inducement for submitting.
[967] Bernal Diaz refers to the last accession from Garay’s expeditions as 40
soldiers and 10 horses, under an old man named Ramirez. Protected by heavy
cotton armor they were nicknamed the ‘albardillas.’ Hist. Verdad., 115.
[968] ‘Si todos ó algunos dellos se quisiesen volver en los navíos que allí estaban,
que les diese licencia.’ Cortés, Cartas, 163.
[969] Oviedo, iii. 335; and so Herrera also intimates in reference to Camargo’s
only remaining vessel, ‘la qual se anegò tãbien dẽtro de 10. dias en el puerto.’
dec. ii. lib. x. cap. xviii.
[970] The last two vessels bring 150 men and 16 horses, probably over 20, to
which must be added Camargo’s force, amounting no doubt to 50 effective men,
for Bernal Diaz admits 60 soldiers, not counting sailors; and Herrera intimates that
over 100 men must have reached Villa Rica of the total force on board Camargo’s
three vessels. Bernal Diaz’ estimates for the five vessels which he enumerates
exceed 170 soldiers and 20 horses; on fol. 115 he contradicts several points,
including the total, to which the sailors may be added, while a small reduction is to
be made for deaths among Camargo’s men. Vetancurt follows Bernal Diaz, and so
does Prescott, who assumes that full 150 men and 20 horses must have been
obtained. Mex., ii. 438. Robertson raises this nearer to the truth by saying 180
men, Hist. Am., ii. 104, as does Brasseur de Bourbourg, who nevertheless, on an
earlier page, adds Sahagun’s fanciful reinforcement of 300 men. Hist. Nat. Civ., iv.
371, 387. While the Spaniards were curing themselves, ‘llegó á Tlaxcala un
Francisco Hernandez, español, con 300 soldados castellanos y con muchos
caballos y armas.’ Sahagun, Hist. Conq., i. 37. The later edition does not give the
number. Gomara merely states that numerous small parties came over from the
Antilles, attracted by Cortés’ fame, through Aillon’s reports, he seems to say. Many
of them were murdered on the way, but sufficient numbers reached him to restore
the army and encourage the prosecution of the conquest. Hist. Mex., 173.
[971] Said to have been named Francisco Eguia. Sahagun, Hist. Conq., i. 39, 66,
and Chimalpain, Hist. Conq., i. 278. Herrera writes that many assumed the malady
to have been one of the periodical scourges that used to fall on the country. ‘Y el
no auer tocado a los Castellanos, parece que trae aparencia de razon.’ dec. ii. lib.
x. cap. iv. But it appears to have been wholly a new disease to the natives.
[972] ‘En el mes que llamaban Tepeilhuitl que es al fin de setiembre,’ as Sahagun
assumes. Hist. Conq., i. 39.
[973] Motolinia, Hist. Ind., in Icazbalceta, Col. Doc., i. 14-15; Sahagun, Hist.
Conq., i. 39, 66; Mendieta, Hist. Ecles., 514; Bernal Diaz, Hist. Verdad., 101; Id.
(Paris ed. 1837), iv. 460 (a chapter omitted in the original); Gomara, Hist. Mex.,
148; Chimalpain, Hist. Conq., i. 279; Torquemada, i. 489; Tezcoco en los ultimos
tiempos, 273.
[974] ‘Vivió despues de su elecçion solos sessenta dias.’ Cano, in Oviedo, iii. 549.
The election having taken place twenty days after Montezuma’s death, according
to Ixtlilxochitl, who assumes that he ruled only 40 or 47 days. Hist. Chich., 304; Id.,
Relaciones, 413. Others extend the rule to 80 days, both as leader and king,
perhaps, which would agree with Cano’s version.
[975] Such characteristics may be seen in Spanish as well as native records; yet
Solis writes, ‘su tibieza y falta de aplicacion dexáse poco menos que borrada
entre los suyos la memoria de su nombre.’ Hist. Mex., 372. Sufficient proof of his
energy is found in the siege resulting in the expulsion from Mexico.
[976] The native authorities incline to Quauhtemoc, but the Spanish generally add
the ‘tzin,’ the ‘c’ being elided, and the ‘Q’ changed to ‘G,’ making the name
Guatemotzin. ‘Quauhtemoc, que significa Aguila que baja.’ Vetancvrt, Teatro Mex.,
pt. iii. 51.
[977] Bernal Diaz describes him about a year later as 23 or 24 years old, while on
another occasion he alludes to him as 25. Hist. Verdad., 112, 155. Ixtlilxochitl
makes him 18. Hist. Chich., 304.
[978] ‘Por muerte de su Padre gobernaba el Tlatelulco.’ Duran, Hist. Ind., MS., ii.
479. ‘Sobrino de Monteçuma, que era papa ó saçerdote mayor entre los indios.’
Cano, in Oviedo, iii. 549; Peter Martyr, dec. v. cap. vi. ‘Cuauhtemotctzin hijo del
rey Ahuitzotzin y de la heredera de el Tlatelulco.’ Ixtlilxochitl, Relaciones, 413.
This incorrect view is adopted by Brasseur de Bourbourg and many others.
[979] ‘Moglie già del suo Zio Cuitlahuatzin,’ is the supposition of Clavigero, Storia
Mess., iii. 160. ‘Se hizo temer de tal manera, que todos los suyos temblauan dél.’
Bernal Diaz, Hist. Verdad., 112. For fanciful portraits of these last two emperors,
see Frost’s Pict. Hist. Mex., 104, 114.
[981] ‘Al que solo fue causa q̄ los Christianos se conseruassen en aquella tierra.’
Herrera, dec. ii. lib. x. cap. xix.
[983] During the absence of the troops, says Herrera, a part of the Tepeacans had
formed a plot to surprise them when divided; but some women informed Marina in
time to prevent trouble. Cortés inflicted on them severe chastisement. dec. ii. lib. x.
cap. xvi. xviii.
[984] The reports and other papers by Cortés, written during a period of nearly
three decades in connection with New Spain, are both numerous and lengthy, but
only the five letters relating to the actual conquest of Mexico and Central America
have achieved bibliographic celebrity, under the title of Cortés’ Letters or
Relations. Although the first letter has been lost, and the companion letter long
missing, yet an allusion to the expedition against Mexico appeared as early as
1520 in Ein auszug ettlicher sendbrieff dem aller durchleüchtigisten
grossmechtigistẽ Fürsten ... von wegen einer new gefundẽ Inseln. Nürmberg
durch Fryderichen Peypus am. 17. tag Marcij MDXX., wherein the voyages of
Córdoba and Grijalva are also described. Harrisse, Bib. Am. Vet., 179, assumes
that the information is taken from Peter Martyr’s Decades. A later brief reference
to the city of Mexico itself is given in Translationuss hispanischer sprach zü
Frantzösisch gemacht so durch dẽ Vice Rey in Neapole fraw Margareten
Hertzogiñ iñ Burgundi zü geschrieben, published in 1522. On folio A. iii. is written:
Not far from the same island they have conquered a city called Tenustitan,
wherein 60,000 hearths have been counted, within a good wall. The letter of the
ayuntamiento was first published in Col. Doc. Inéd., i., 1842.
By the time of the receipt in Spain of Cortés’ second letter, of October 30,
1520, the general and his conquest had become so famous that his
communications were not likely to be lost sight of. The incidents treated of were
besides highly enticing, particularly the victories in Tlascala, the entry into
Montezuma’s wonderful island city, the disastrous expulsion, and the renewal of
the campaign, and Cromberger had it printed in 1522 under the title of Carta de
relaciõ ẽbiada a su. S. majestad del ẽpador nt̃o señor por el capitã general dela
nueua spaña: llamado fernãdo cortes, etc. Seuilla: por Jacobo crõberger aleman.
A viii. dias de Nouiẽbre. Año de M. d. y xxij. ‘Fué las Primicias de el Arte de la
Imprenta en Sevilla, y acaso de toda España,’ observes Lorenzana, in Cortes,
Hist. N. España, 171, but this is a great mistake, for printing had been done
already for several decades in Spain. An Italian abstract of the letter appeared
immediately after, as Noue de le Isole & Terra ferma Nouamente trouate In India
per el Capitaneo de larmata de la Cesarea Maiestate. Mediolani decimosexto
calẽ. Decembris M.D.XXII. A reprint of the Seville text was issued at Saragossa in
January, 1523. A later abridged account of the conquest is given in Ein schöne
Newe zeytung so Kayserlich Mayestet auss India yetz newlich zükommen seind,
ascribed to Sigmund Grimm of Augsburg, about 1522. Bibliotheca Grenvilliana
and Harrisse. Ternaux-Compans wrongly supposes the narrative to extend only to
1519, instead of 1522, and assumes the imprint to be Augsburg, 1520. Bibl.
Amér., 5. Perhaps 1523 is the more correct date, which may also be ascribed to
Tres sacree Imperiale et catholique mageste ... eust nouuelles des marches ysles
et terre ferme occeanes. Colophon, fol. 16. Depuis sont venues a sa mageste
nouuelles de certaīes ysles trouuez par les espagnolz plaines despecerie et
beaucoup de mines dor, lesquelles nouuelles il receupt en ceste ville de vailladolid
le primier doctobre xv. cent. xxij. This is a book noticed by no bibliographer except
Sabin, who believes that it contains only the second letter, although the holder
supposes the third letter to be also used. In 1524 appeared the first Latin version
of the second letter, by Savorgnanus, Praeclara Ferdinãdi Cortesii de Noua maris
Oceani Hyspania Narratio, Norimberga. M.D.XXIIII., which contains a copy of the
now lost map of the Gulf of Mexico, and also a plan of Mexico City. In the same
year two Italian translations of this version, by Liburnius, La Preclara Narratione,
were printed at Venice, one by Lexona, the other by Sabio, yet both at the
instance of Pederzani. The plan and map are often missing. Antonio, Bib. Hisp.
Nova, iii. 375, mentions only Lexona’s issue. A translation from Flavigny appeared
in the Portfolio, Philadelphia, 1817. The originals of the second and other letters
were, in the early part of the eighteenth century, ‘en la Libreria de Don Miguel
Nuñez de Rojas, del Consejo Real de las Ordenes,’ says Pinelo, Epitome, ii. 597.
Much of the vagueness which involves the narrative of events previous to the flight
from Mexico may be due to the loss of diary and documents during that episode.
The loss was convenient to Cortés, since it afforded an excuse for glossing over
many irregularities and misfortunes.
The third letter, dated Coyuhuacan, May 15, 1522, and relating the siege and
fall of Mexico, was first published at Seville, on Cromberger’s press, March 30,
1523, as Carta tercera de relaciõ: embiada por Fernãdo cortes capitan y justicia
mayor del yucatan llamado la nueua espana del mar oceano. It received a
reproduction in Latin by the same hand and at the same time as the second letter.
Both were reprinted, together with some missionary letters and Peter Martyr’s De
Insulis, in De Insvlis nuper Inventis Ferdinandi Cortesii. Coloniæ, M.D.XXXII. The
title-page displays a portrait of Charles V., and is bordered with his arms. Martyr’s
part, which tells rather briefly of Cortés, found frequent reprint, while the second
and third letters were republished, with other matter, in the Spanish Thesoro de
virtudes, 1543; in the German Ferdinandi Cortesii. Von dem Newen Hispanien.
Augspurg, 1550, wherein they are called first and second narratives, and divided
into chapters, with considerable liberty; in the Latin Novus Orbis of 1555 and 1616;
and in the Flemish Nieuwe Weerelt of 1563; while a French abridgment appeared
at Paris in 1532. The secret epistle accompanying the third letter was first printed
in Col. Doc. Inéd., i., and afterward by Kingsborough and Gayangos.
The fourth letter, on the progress of conquest after the fall of Mexico, dated at
Temixtitan (Mexico), October 15, 1524, was issued at Toledo, 1525, as La quarta
relacion, together with Alvarado’s and Godoy’s reports to Cortés. A second edition
followed at Valencia the year after. The secret letter accompanying it was not
published till 1865, when Icazbalceta, the well known Mexican collector,
reproduced it in separate black-letter form, and in his Col. Doc., i. 470-83.
The substance of the above three relations has been given in a vast number
of collections and histories, while in only a limited number have they been
reproduced in a full or abridged form, the first reproduction being in the third
volume of Ramusio Viaggi, of 1556, 1565, and 1606, which contains several other
pieces on the conquest, all supplied with appropriate headings and marginals.
Barcia next published them direct from the manuscript, in the Historiadores
Primitivos, i. This collection bears the imprint Madrid, 1749, but the letters had
already been printed in 1731, as Pinelo affirms, Epitome, ii. 597. Barcia died a few
years before his set was issued. From this source Archbishop Lorenzana took the
version published by him under the title of Historia de Nueva-España, Mexico,
1770, which is not free from omissions and faults, though provided with valuable
notes on localities and customs, and supplemented with illustrated pieces on
routes and native institutions, a map of New Spain by Alzate, an article on the
Gobierno Politico by Vetancurt, a copy of a native tribute-roll from picture records,
not very accurately explained, and the first map of Lower California and adjoining
coast, by Castillo, in 1541. This version of the letters was reproduced in New York,
1828, with a not wholly successful attempt by Del Mar to introduce modern
spelling. The work is also marked by a number of omissions and blunders, and the
introductory biographic sketch by Robert Sands adds little to its value. An
abridgment from Lorenzana appeared as Correspondance de Fernand Cortés, par
le Vicomte de Flavigny, Paris, 1778, which obtained three reprints during the
following year at different places. A great many liberties are taken with facts, as
may be imagined; and the letters are, beside, misnamed first, second, and third.
From the same source, or perhaps from Flavigny, of whom they savor, are Briefe
des Ferdinand Cortes, Heidelberg, 1779, with several reproductions, and with
notes; and the corrected Brieven van Ferdinand Cortes, Amsterdam, 1780-1. The
first edition in English, from Lorenzana, was issued by Folsom, as Despatches of
Hernando Cortes, New York, 1843, also with notes.
The fifth letter of the conqueror, on the famous expedition to Honduras, dated
at Temixtitan, September 3, 1526, lay hidden in the Vienna Imperial Library till
Robertson’s search for the first letter brought it to light. Hist. Am., i. xi. He made
use of it, but the first complete copy was not published till of late, in Col. Doc.
Inéd., iv. 8-167, reprinted at New York, 1848, and, in translation, in the Hakluyt
Society collection, London, 1868. It bore no date, but the copy found at Madrid has
that of September 3, 1526, and the companion letter printed in Col. Doc. Inéd., i.
14-23, that of September 11th. This, as well as the preceding letters, was issued
by Vedia, in Ribadeneyra’s Biblioteca de Autores Españoles, xxii.; the first three
letters being taken from Barcia, and the fifth from its MS. The letter of the
ayuntamiento is given and a bibliographic notice of little value. A very similar
collection is to be found in the Biblioteca Historica de la Iberia, i. But the most
complete reproduction of the principal writings by Cortés, and connected with him,
is in the Cartas y Relaciones de Hernan Cortés, Paris, 1866, by Gayangos, which
contains 26 pieces, beside the relations, chiefly letters and memorials to the
sovereign, a third of which are here printed for the first time. Although a few of
Lorenzana’s blunders find correction, others are committed, and the notes of the
archbishop are adopted without credit, and without the necessary amendment of
date, etc., which often makes them absurd. The earliest combined production of
Cortés’ relations, and many of his other writings, may be credited to Peter Martyr,
who in his Decades gave the substance of all that they relate, although he also
mingled other versions. Oviedo, in the third volume of his Hist. Gen., gives two
versions of the conquest, the first, p. 258 et seq., almost a reproduction of Cortés’
letters, and the other, p. 506 et seq., from different sources.
Beside the relations, there are a number of miscellaneous letters, petitions,
orders, instructions, and regulations, by Cortés, largely published in Navarrete,
Col. de Viages; Col. Doc. Inéd.; Pacheco and Cárdenas, Col. Doc.; Icazbalceta,
Col. Doc.; Kingsborough’s Mex. Antiq.; Alaman, Disert., and as appendices to
histories of Mexico. A special collection is the Escritos Sueltos de Hernan Cortés,
Mex., 1871, forming vol. xii. of the Bib. Hist. de la Iberia, which presents 43
miscellaneous documents from various printed sources, instructions, memorials,
and brief letters, nearly all of which are filled with complaints against ruling men in
Mexico.
Cortés’ letters have not inaptly been compared by Prescott to the
Commentaries of Cæsar, for both men were military commanders of the highest
order, who spoke and wrote like soldiers; but their relative positions with regard to
the superior authorities of their states were different, and so were their race
feelings, and their times, and these features are stamped upon their writings.
Cortés was not the powerful consul, the commander of legions, but the leader of a
horde of adventurers, and an aspirant for favor, who made his narrative an
advocate. The simplicity and energy of the style lend an air of truth to the
statements, and Helps, among others, is so impressed thereby as to declare that
Cortés ‘would as soon have thought of committing a small theft as of uttering a
falsehood in a despatch addressed to his sovereign.’ Cortés, ii. 211. But it requires
little study of the reports to discover that they are full of calculated misstatements,
both direct and negative, made whenever he considered it best for his interest to
conceal disagreeable and discreditable facts, or to magnify the danger and the
deed. They are also stamped with the religious zeal and superstition of the age,
the naïve expressions of reliance on God being even more frequent than the
measured declarations of devotedness to the king; while in between are calmly
related the most cold-blooded outrages on behalf of both. There is no apparent
effort to attract attention to himself; there is even at times displayed a modesty
most refreshing in the narrative of his own achievements, by which writers have as
a rule been quite entranced; but this savors of calculation, for the general tone is
in support of the ego, and this often to the exclusion of deserving officers. Indeed,
generous allusions to the character or deeds of others are not frequent, or they
are merged in the non-committing term of ‘one of my captains.’ Pedro de Alvarado
complains of this in one of his Relaciones, in Barcia, Hist. Prim., i. 165-6. In truth,
the calculating egotism of the diplomate mingles freely with the frankness of the
soldier. Cortés, however, is ever mindful of his character as an hidalgo, for he
never stoops to meanness, and even in speaking of his enemies he does not
resort to the invectives or sharp insinuations which they so freely scatter. His style
bears evidence of training in rhetoric and Latin, yet the parade of the latter is not
so frequent as might be expected from the half-bred student and zealot. Equally