The E ect of Basuki’s Statement towards 2017 Jakarta Gubernatorial Elec on

1. Introduc on
The period of 2016-2017 marked one of the biggest poli cal events in the history of Indonesia. The
ba le was ini ally begun during the 2014 presiden al elec on, where 2 candidates were contes ng
the elec on, Prabowo (former general) and Jokowi (governor of Jakarta). This ba le was won by
Jokowi, which results in the inheritance of Jakarta’s governor posi on to Basuki, Jokowi’s deputy.
Ever since this event, Indonesian masses were generally separated into two poli cal poles. Even a er
the elec on ends, the tension did not weaken. These two poles will later generally also become two
mass bases for the 2017 gubernatorial elec on, where 2 contestants were par cipa ng in the second
round of elec on, Basuki (incumbent governor, former Jokowi’s deputy), and Anies.

On September 2016, in a speech in front of ci zens of Thousand Islands, Basuki noted that some
ci zens would not vote for him because they are being “deceived using Verse 51 of Al Maidah and
varia ons of it,” referring to a verse that some groups have cited as grounds to oppose him. The
video of Basuki’s speech spread soon a er. His statement was then cri cized by ci zens and pundits,
considering it an insult on the Quran. The e ects of his statement were culminated when hundred of
thousands of peoples converged on central Jakarta (Figure 1), demanding Basuki’s ouster. Events
a er events happened a erwards. On 19 April, based on quick counts results, Basuki concedes
defeat hours a er the polls closed, which later agreed by the o cial results published by KPU. As a
game changer of 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial elec on, it is interes ng to see how his statement
a ected the support for him. It is thus the quest of this report to model the spreading of his
statement and how it a ects the support for him.
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 Figure 1. Demonstra on demanding Basuki’s Ouster (source: h p://wartakota.tribunnews.com/)

2. Model solved
The following system of equa ons are used to model our problem:

( ∂x 2 ∂ y2 )
∂u ∂2 u ∂2 u
= Du + + (a − bw)u + βnu
∂t

( ∂x 2 ∂ y2 )
∂v ∂2 v ∂2 v
= Dv + + cu
∂t

( ∂x 2 ∂ y2 )
∂w ∂2 w ∂2 w ∂ ∂v ∂ ∂v
= Dw + + ( d − eu) w − (α w ) − (α w )
∂t ∂x ∂x ∂y ∂y

( ∂x 2 ∂ y2 )
∂n ∂2 n ∂2 n
= Dn + − βnu
∂t

The system of equa ons above is based on Alt and Lau enberger model, with some modi ca ons.
The meaning of each term above are as follows:

u : Density of Opposi on mass of Basuki

v : Density of informa on about Basuki’s speech
w : Density of Basuki’s supporters
n : Density of neutral (un-poled) mass
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 Du, Dv, Dw, Dn : Di usion coe cient
a, b, c, d, e, α, β : Empirical constants of reac on term
Here, the spread of the Basuki’s opposi on is modelled, bringing the informa on of Basuki’s speech.
The in uence of this informa on about Basuki’s speech is analysed based on how it a ects the
poli cal tendency of ini ally neutral people. Basuki’s supporters are also modelled, as a mass bass
trying to suppress the spread of the informa on as well as defending Basuki’s posi on.

3. Boundary condi on
In present report, Neumann’s boundary condi on is chosen, knowing the fact that gubernatorial
elec on is a local event. This means that only Jakarta’s ci zen that is able to par cipate in the
elec on, thus there will be no spread of either informa on, Basuki’s supporters or Basuki’s
Opposi on masses, to outside Jakarta.

4. Program list
Here, a macro-excel program is used. The excel le is a ached.

5. Computer used, CPU me

Processor: Intel® Xeon® CPU E3-1240 v5 @3.50GHz 3.50GHz
Installed memory (RAM): 16.0 GB
System type: 64-bit Opera ng System, x64-based processor
Calcula on me: 1 minute

6. Results and discussion

Within this simula on, Jakarta’s map as well as the loca on of Pramuka Island where Basuki gave
his speech are considered (Figure 2). The area is modelled as a square to simplify our problem
(Figure 3).
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 Figure 2. Map of Jakarta (le ) and loca on of Pramuka Island is marked red (right).

Figure 3. Model of Jakarta’s map, where Pramuka Island is marked red.

It is thus assumed that the intense outrage was ini ally begun in Pramuka Island, in addi on to
ini ally random distribu on of Basuki’s opposi on. This outrage is then dispersed throughout
Jakarta, a ec ng the poli cal voices of ini ally neutral mass, where the density distribu on is
assumed to be uniform. The ini al random distribu on of Basuki’s supporters are also assigned.
All of these ini al condi ons are shown in Fig. 4, Fig. 5, Fig. 6, Fig. 7.
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 Figure 4. Ini al distribu on of Basuki’s opposi on density

Figure 5. Ini al distribu on of Informa on of Basuki’s speech

Figure 6. Ini al distribu on of Basuki’s supporters

Figure 7. Ini al distribu on of neutral mass

In solving this problem, 200 mesteps were used. This refers to the me from Basuki’s speech
(September 27th, 2016) un l the elec on day (April 19th,2017), which is around 200 days. It is also
assumed that both supporters and opposi ons are the same in term of in uence strength, thus
most of the coe cient assigned for supporters and opposi ons are made the same. Finally the
computa on results are displayed in Fig. 8, 9, 10, and 11.

Figure 8. Final distribu on of Basuki’s opposi on density

Figure 9. Final distribu on of Informa on of Basuki’s speech

Figure 10. Final distribu on of Basuki’s supporters

Figure 11. Final distribu on of neutral mass

We could see that, as predicted, Basuki’s opposi ons increases in large amount, while on the
other hand, Basuki’ supporter decreases. We could also see that ini ally neutral people decreases
as they nally decided their poli cal views.
8. Conclusion
As we see from the results, we could understand that such event, i.e. Basuki’s speech, could be
seen as a huge game changing factor. Many voices moved towards Basuki’s Opposi on, from
ini ally neutral people or even from Basuki’s own supporters. This agrees with the results of the
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 elec on, where it was won by the opposing party. Indeed, this simula on is far from being
perfect, since many factors are not included to simplify our mathema cal model. Those factors
include the past experience of the candidates, the program o ered by the candidates, and many
others. Nonetheless, this simple mathema cal modelling could bring us to an understanding of
one factor that drives Basuki’s lost.

9. References
[1]. Mathema cal modelling lecture note.
[2]. Bacteria and white cell excel program.
[3]. Sasongko, Agung (6 October 2016). "Video Ahok: Anda Dibohongi Alquran Surat Al-Maidah 51
Viral di Medsos". Republika
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