GRARE

GRID RELIABILITY AND ADEQUACY RISK EVALUATOR

DEVELOPED BY
MAKE IT SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE,
BUT NOT ANY SIMPLER.

Albert Einstein
GRARE
GRID RELIABILITY AND ADEQUACY RISK EVALUATOR

GRARE is a powerful computer-based tool of Terna, developed by CESI, that evaluates reliability and economic
operational capability using probabilistic Monte Carlo analysis. GRARE has been developed to support medium and
long-term planning studies and is particularly useful for evaluating the reliability of large power systems, modeling
in detail the transmission networks. GRARE is developed taking advantage of a high performance multi-threaded
code. GRARE is integrated in SPIRA application, that is designed to perform steady-state analyses (e.g. load-flow,
short-circuits, OPF, power quality) and is based on a network Data Base of the system being analysed.
 The calculation process is performed as a series of sequential steps starting from a high-level system
representation and drilling down to low-level network details.

DATA RANDOM WEEKLY UNIT

PREPARATION DRAWING COMMITMENT

SYSTEM COMPONENTS PEAK LOAD

STATUS BASED ON THEIR
MAINTENANCE AVAILABILITY
OPTIMISATION IMPOSED PRODUCTIONS
(RENEWABLES, HYDRO)

PHOTOVOLTAIC AND AVAILABLE GENERATING

WIND PRODUCTION UNITS (WITH COSTS)

SPINNING RESERVE
HYDRO MARGIN
OPTIMISATION HYDRO CONDITION SELECTION
(N
(Normal, Wet, Dry)
AREA EXCHANGE LIMITS

BUSBAR MODEL
(only interconnections among areas)

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Thanks to the ability to couple the economic dispatch of the generation with the complete structure of the
electrical network, GRARE is able to offer a unique support for the planning and evaluation of the benefits related
to network investments.

OPTIMAL
OPTIMAL
HOURLY
RE-DISPATCHING
DISPATCHING

UNITS PRODUCTION VARIATION OF INITIAL

BASED ON QUADRATIC DISPATCHING TO SOLVE A STEP FORWARD
COST FUNCTIONS OVERLOADS The complete network model
(lines, generators, transformers,
etc.) includes different voltage level
SOLUTION OF FORECAST POSSIBLE LOAD detail and the power flow derived
ERRORS OF RES AND AND GENERATION from generation dispatching to feed
POWER DEMAND CURTAILMENT the load is obtained applying a DC
load flow with the possibility to
SOLUTION OF POSSIBLE obtain power losses and voltage
OVER GENERATION COMPLETE NETWORK profile estimation. Starting from a
PROBLEMS (detailed network complete network model, Grare is
topology of each area) able to automatically obtain a
simplified bus-bar models to
LOSSES EVALUATION complete unit commitment and
market analyses where the network
detail is not needed. The analysis of
the full network model allow to
verify the feasibility of the economic
dispatching and the necessity to
apply a re-dispatching or load
shedding to operate the network in
accordance to security criterion.

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 M A I N F E AT UR ES
MCY – MONTE CARLO YEAR
A mix of Monte Carlo variables are
ALGORITHM AND MAIN OPTIMIZATION PROCESS simulated to obtain a MCY. Typically
The time horizon is a single year with a minimum time unit of one hour. these are: Load conditions (due to
Many Monte Carlo Years (MCYs) can be simulated, each one being split economic scenarios and temperature
into 52 weeks with each week independently optimized. dependence) + Hydro availability +
Probabilistic Monte Carlo method uses statistical sampling based on Forced Outage Rate of Generation
a “Sequential” or “Non Sequential” approach. Fleet and Network Elements +
Monte Carlo convergence analysis to verify the accuracy of results Transfer Capacity availability + Wind
obtained. and Solar stochastic behavior.
Optimised Maintenance schedule based on residual load distribution
over the year.
Reservoir and pumping Hydro optimisation mindful of water value as
COMPLETE NETWORK MODEL
an opportunity cost for water in respect to other generation sources. Simulation of the whole Network
Different hydro conditions managed (dry, normal, wet). including each element (eg. Lines,
transformers generation units, etc.).
SYSTEM MODEL Flexible network devices (PST,
Network detail to represent each single area (grid dimension up to HVDC) to control power flows also
5,000 buses). A DC load flow is calculated and an estimate of voltage after fault conditions.
level can be obtained using the Sauer algorithm.
Area modelling to optimize Unit commitment and Dispatching
consistent with transfer capacities. AVAILABLE TRANSFER CAPACITY
Unit Commitment and Dispatching with Flow or ATC based approach Power flows are distributed only on
the basis of available capacity.
MARKET ANALYSES FLOW BASED
Single year day-ahead Market analysis with area modelling detail, but Power flows are distributed on the
with no Monte Carlo drawings. basis of network representation
The general restrictions of the Unit Commitment like minimal uptime (GRARE can manage a full network
and downtime of generation units are taken into account for each representation or simplified
optimization period. ones such as PTDF matrix or
Dispatchable units characterised by power limits, costs, must-run or equivalent impedances).
dispatching priority, power plants configurations, start-up and shut-
down flexibility and CO2 emissions.

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 ADEQUACY ANALYSES
System adequacy level measured with Reliability Indexes (EENS, LOLE, LOLP).
Renewable production calculated by a random drawing starting from producibility figures.
Operational reserve level evaluation taking account of largest generating unit, uncertainty of load
and RES forecast, possible aggregation of Area and fixed % of load.
Demand side management as rewarded load to be shed with priority without impact on adequacy.
Over-generation management with possible priority on generation to be reduced.

G E N E R AT I O N A D E Q U AC Y E VA LU AT I O N

Operational
Reserve Maintenance
obligation Fault
(only in UC) (MC draw)
Available
Thermal
Fleet

+ Merit
order
-
Total + ATC
demand Thermal
limit + Fleet
- Total
Residual Flexibility
Demand constraints
Hydro
(optimization)
Wind & Solar Must run
productions obligation
Other RES
Other non-RES

GRARE - GRID RELIABILITY AND ADEQUACY RISK EVALUATOR 5

 MAIN APPLICATIONS

Designed for technical analyses

of large electric systems.

Evaluation of electric systems

RELIABILITY NETWORK
Generation & Transmission adequacy.
INDICES ANALYSIS
Optimal level of RES integration.

Cost Benefits Analysis for network

Single branch
reinforcements and storage Expected energy & interconnections
which factors in Security of Supply, not supplied monitoring
network overloads, RES integration,
Marginal gain for EENS
network losses, CO2 emissions reduction associated
and over-generation. to the increase
Loss of load in capability of single
probability network elements
Calculation of Total Transfer Capacity
of interconnections. Generation
re-dispatching
Loss of load to solve network
Generation reward evaluation overloads or
expectation over-generation
for Capacity Remuneration problems
Mechanism. LOLE
[h/year]
25

Point Of Connection and sizing 20

for new power plants. 15

10

0 0,25
2.5E-6 0,50
5.0E-6 0,75
7.5E-6 1.00
1.0E-5
EENS [p.u.] LOLP [%]

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M A I N R ESU LT S

AREA AREA COST CAPACITY

& SYSTEM & GRID BENEFIT REMUNERATION
BALANCING ANALYSES ANALYSIS MECHANISM

Area & system costs Social Economic Welfare (SEW)

and Variation of CO2 emissions

RES curtailment Energy not supplied Reliability

Productions (EENS) reduction Options Model
& gen. costs
for each unit Integration
of renewable resources

Savings in the ancillary

Area & system services market
electrical losses Estimation of option
EENS distribution
Grid transmission capacity premium based
due to lack of power, increase (GTC) and Energy on system costs,
lack of interconnection, losses variation related value of lost load,
Energy exchanges overloads to the network flows
interconnection capacity
among areas Avoided investments

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 W O RL D C LI E NT REF E R E NC E
The high level of versatility and flexibility of the GRARE tool has been appreciated in Europe first and then
in several countries all around the world. The program has been developed to be applied in the design phase
for the Italian framework and it is now used for Entso-E adequacy studies. Various TSO/Institutions have
benefited from the potentiality of the tool by using it directly or through specialist consultancy services.

ELTAM
Project

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 GREAT THINGS ARE DONE
BY A SERIES OF SMALL THINGS
BROUGHT TOGETHER.

Vincent Van Gogh

 The top independent grid operator in Europe for kilometres of lines managed,
Terna is a company of Italian excellence composed of more than 3,700 professionals.
Terna Group works everyday to make the National Transmission Grid safer, more efficient,
more sustainable and increasingly interconnected, also in view of continental electrical development.

Viale Egidio Galbani, 70 - 00156 Rome, Italy

Ph. +39 06 83138 111
To contact us: info@terna.it

www.terna.it

D E V E L O P E D B Y

CESI is an independent center of expertise and a global provider of technical and engineering services
to customers throughout the energy value chain, including business and technical consultancy,
engineering and operational support. Cesi also act as owner's engineer and provide
qualified third-party opinions to power utilities worldwide.

Via Rubattino, 54 I-20134 Milan, Italy

Ph. +39 02 21 251
To contact us: grare@cesi.it

www.cesi.it