Introduction to Business Statistics 6th

Edition Weiers Solutions Manual

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 CHAPTER 7
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

SECTION EXERCISES
7.1 d/p/e Discrete probability distributions can be expressed as histograms where the height of the vertical
bars is the probability for the various values that the random variable can take on. However, continuous
probability distributions are smooth curves. Since the random variable can take on any value along a
range, we find the probability that the random variable is within a certain interval by finding the area
under the curve within this interval.

7.2 d/p/m A continuous probability distribution is a smooth curve. A probability density function is a
function of x called f(x) which determines the shape of the curve. We speak of probabilities in terms of
the probability that x will be within a specific interval of values. The probability density function is
expressed in algebraic terms and the areas beneath it are obtained using calculus.

7.3 d/p/m The area beneath the probability density function represents the probability of the random
variable, x, being between minus infinity and plus infinity. Since x must be between minus infinity and
plus infinity (this is a certain event), the area must be 1.

7.4 d/p/e The probability of a continuous random variable taking on a specific value is 0 because there is
an infinite number of possible values. The probability of any specific number is 0.

7.5 d/p/m There is an infinite number of normal curves possible. There are two descriptors that decide
which specific curve you are talking about: the mean and the standard deviation.

7.6 d/p/e The normal distribution is symmetrical; the left side is a mirror image of the right side.

7.7 d/p/m Just superimpose part B of Figure 7.3 over part A so that the means are the same.

7.8 c/a/m x is normally distributed with  = 20 and  = 4. Using the approximate areas beneath the
normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and shown in Figure 7.4:
a. P(x  20) = P(x  ) = 0.5
b. P(16  x  24) = P( -   x   + ) = 0.683
c. P(x  12) = P(x   - 2) = 0.5 – (0.955/2) = 0.5 - 0.4775 = 0.0225
d. P(x = 22) = 0
e. P(12  x  28) = P( - 2  x   + 2) = 0.955
f. P(x  16) = P(x   - ) = 0.5 + (0.683/2) = 0.5 + 0.3415 = 0.8415

7.9 c/a/m x is normally distributed with  = 25 and  = 5. Using the approximate areas beneath the
normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and shown in Figure 7.4:
a. P(x  25) = P(x  ) = 0.5
b. P(20  x  30) = P( -   x   + ) = 0.683
c. P(x  30) = P(x   + ) = 0.5 + (0.683/2) = 0.5 + 0.3415 = 0.8415
d. P(x = 26.2) = 0
e. P(15  x  25) = P( - 2  x  ) = 0.955/2 = 0.4775
f. P(x  15) = P(x   - 2) = 0.5 + (0.955/2) = 0.5 + 0.4775 = 0.9775

7.10 p/a/m Given x = revenue/passenger trip, x is normally distributed with  = $1.05,  = $0.20.

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Using the approximate areas beneath the normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and
shown in Figure 7.4:
a. P(x < 1.05) = P(x < ) = 0.5
b. P(0.65 < x < 1.45) = P( - 2 < x <  + 2) = 0.955
c. P(0.85 < x < 1.25) = P( -  < x <  + ) = 0.683
d. P(0.45 < x < 1.05) = P( - 3 < x < ) = 0.997/2 = 0.4985

7.11 p/a/m Given x = amount of first mortgage, normally distributed:  = $294,000,  = $30,000.
Using the approximate areas beneath the normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and
shown in Figure 7.4:
a. P(x > 294,000) = P(x > ) = 0.5
b. P(234,000 < x < 354,000) = P( - 2 < x <  + 2) = 0.955
c. P(264,000 < x < 324,000) = P( -  < x <  + ) = 0.683
d. P(x > 204,000) = P(x >  - 3) = 0.5 + (0.997/2) = 0.5 + 0.4985 = 0.9985

7.12 p/a/m Given x = tax preparation fees, normally distributed with  = $84.57,  = $10.
Using the approximate areas beneath the normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and
shown in Figure 7.4:
a. P(x > 84.57) = P(x > ) = 0.5
b. P(64.57 < x < 104.57) = P( - 2 < x <  + 2) = 0.955
c. P(74.57 < x < 94.57) = P( -  < x <  + ) = 0.683
d. P(x > 104.57) = P(x >  + 2) = 0.5 - (0.955/2) = 0.5 - 0.4775 = 0.0225

7.13 p/a/m Given x = bag delivery times, normally distributed with  = 12.1 mins.,  = 2.0 mins.
Using the approximate areas beneath the normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and
shown in Figure 7.4:
a. P(x > 14.1) = P(x >  + ) = 0.5 - (0.683/2) = 0.5 - 0.3415 = 0.1585
b. P(10.1 < x < 14.1) = P( -  < x <  + ) = 0.683
c. P(x < 8.1) = P(x <  - 2) = 0.5 - (0.955/2) = 0.5 - 0.4775 = 0.0225
d. P(10.1 < x < 16.1) = P( -  < x <  + 2) = (0.683/2) + (0.955/2) = 0.3415 + 0.4775 = 0.819

7.14 p/a/m Given x = golf expenditures, normally distributed with  = $939,  = $200. Using the
approximate areas beneath the normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and shown in
Figure 7.4:
a. P(x > 1539) = P(x >  + 3) = 0.5 - (0.997/2) = 0.5 - 0.4985 = 0.0015
b. P(939 < x < 1339) = P( < x <  + 2) = 0.955/2 = 0.4775
c. P(x < 1139) = P(x <  + ) = 0.5 + (0.683/2) = 0.5 + 0.3415 = 0.8415
d. P(539 < x < 1139) = P( - 2 < x <  + ) = (0.955/2) + (0.683/2) = 0.4775 + 0.3415 = 0.819

7.15 p/a/m Given x = commuting times, normally distributed with  = 30.0 mins.,  = 5.0 mins.
Using the approximate areas beneath the normal curve, as discussed in Section 7.2 of the chapter and
shown in Figure 7.4:
a. P(x > 45.0) = P(x >  + 3) = 0.5 - (0.997/2) = 0.5 - 0.4985 = 0.0015
b. P(x < 25.0) = P(x <  - ) = 0.5 - (0.683/2) = 0.5 - 0.3415 = 0.1585 It would be a good idea for him to
update his resume.

7.16 d/p/m The standard normal distribution is not a family of distributions. It is a particular normal
distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.

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7.17 d/p/m
a. 25% of the time, z is less than the first quartile. P(z < Q) = 0.25. Look up the area
0.5000 - 0.2500 = 0.2500 in the body of the standard normal table; taking the closest value,
Q = -0.67. (Q is negative since Q is on the left side of 0.)
25% of the time, z is greater than the third quartile. P(z > Q) = 0.25. Since the normal distribution is
symmetric, Q = 0.67.
b. 10% of the time, z is less than the first decile. P(z < D) = 0.10. Look up the area 0.5000 - 0.1000 =
0.4000 in the body of the standard normal table; taking the closest value, D = -1.28. (D is negative
since D is on the left side of 0.)
10% of the time, z is greater than the ninth decile. P(z > D) = 0.10.Since the normal distribution is
symmetric, D = 1.28.
c. 23% of the time, z is less than the 23rd percentile. P(z < P) = 0.23. Look up the area
0.5000 - 0.2300 = 0.2700 in the body of the standard normal table; taking the closest value,
P = -0.74. (P is negative since P is on the left side of 0.)
23% of the time, z is greater than the 77th percentile. P(z > P) = 0.23. Since the normal distribution
is symmetric, P = 0.74.

7.18 c/p/e Given x is normally distributed with  = 1000 and  = 100.

a. x = 1000 z = (x - )/ = (1000 - 1000)/100 = 0.00
b. x = 750 z = (750 - 1000)/100 = -2.50 c. x = 1100 z = (1100 - 1000)/100 = 1.00
d. x = 950 z = (950 - 1000)/100 = -0.50 e. x = 1225 z =(1225 - 1000)/100 = 2.25

7.19 c/p/e Given x is normally distributed with  = 200 and  = 25.

a. x = 150 z = (x - )/ = (150 - 200)/25 = -2.00
b. x = 180 z = (180 - 200)/25 = -0.80 c. x = 200 z = (200 - 200)/25 = 0.00
d. x = 285 z = (285 - 200)/25 = 3.40 e. x = 315 z = (315 - 200)/25 = 4.60

7.20 c/a/e
a. P(0.00  z  1.25) = 0.3944 ("1.2" row and the ".05" column of the standard normal table.)
b. P(-1.25  z  0.00) = 0.3944. Since the standard normal distribution is symmetric, the area is the same
as in part a.
c. P(-1.25  z  1.25) = 0.3944 + 0.3944 = 0.7888. Refer to parts a and b.

7.21 c/a/e
a. P(0.00  z  1.10) = 0.3643 ("1.1" row and the ".00" column of the standard normal table)
b. P(z  1.10) = 0.1357. Since the total area to the right of the mean is 0.5000, the area in
the right tail of the distribution is 0.5000 - 0.3643 = 0.1357.
c. P(z  1.35) = 0.9115. Referring to the "1.3" row and the ".05" column of the standard
normal table, we find an area of 0.4115. Since the total area to the left of the mean is
0.5000, the area to the left of z = 1.35 is 0.5000 + 0.4115 = 0.9115.

7.22 c/a/e
a. P(-0.36  z  0.00) = P(0.00  z  0.36) = 0.1406. Referring to the "0.3" row and the ".06" column of
the standard normal table, we find an area of 0.1406.
b. P(z  -0.36) = 0.3594. Since the total area to the left of the mean is 0.5000, the area in

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 the left tail of the distribution is 0.5000 - 0.1406 = 0.3594.
c. P(z  -0.43) = 0.6664. Referring to the "0.4" row and the ".03" column of the standard
normal table, we find an area of 0.1664. Since the total area to the right of the mean is
0.5000, the area to the right of z = -0.43 is 0.5000 + 0.1664 = 0.6664.

7.23 c/a/e
a. P(-1.96  z  1.27) = 0.4750 (the area from z = 0.00 to z = -1.96) + 0.3980 (the area from z = 0.00 to
z = 1.27) = 0.8730
b. P(0.29  z  1.00) = 0.3413 (the area from z = 0.00 to z = 1.00) - 0.1141 (the area from z = 0.00 to
z = 0.29) = 0.2272
c. P(-2.87  z  -1.22) = 0.4979 (the area from z = 0.00 to z = -2.87) - 0.3888 (the area from z = 0.00 to
z = -1.22) = 0.1091

7.24 c/p/m
a. P(0.00  z  z0) = 0.2486. Look up the area 0.2486 in the body of the standard normal table; z0 will be
0.67
b. P(0.00  z  z0) = 0.3554. Look up the area 0.3554 in the body of the standard normal table; z0 will be
1.06.
c. P(z  z0) = 0.0694. Look up the area 0.5000 - 0.0694 = 0.4306 in the body of the standard normal
table; z0 will be -1.48. (z is negative since the graph shows z is on the left side of 0.)
d. P(z  z0) = 0.0212. Look up the area 0.5000 - 0.0212 = 0.4788 in the body of the standard normal
table; z0 will be 2.03.

7.25 c/p/m
a. P(0.00  z  z0) = 0.20. Look up the area 0.2000 in the body of the standard normal table; taking the
closest value, z0 will be 0.52.
b. P(0.00  z  z0) = 0.48. Look up the area 0.4800 in the body of the standard normal table; taking the
closest value, z0 will be 2.05.
c. P(z  z0) = 0.54. Look up the area 0.5400 - 0.5000 = 0.0400 in the body of the standard normal table;
taking the closest value, z0 will be 0.10.
d. P(z  z0) = 0. 30. Look up the area 0.5000 - 0.3000 = 0.2000 in the body of the standard normal table;
taking the closest value, z0 will be 0.52.

7.26 p/a/m From exercise 7.10, x is normally distributed with  = $1.05 and  = $0.20.
a. P(1.05 < x < 1.30) = P(0.00 < z < 1.25) = 0.3944
b. P(x > 1.40) = P(z > 1.75) = 0.5000 - 0.4599 = 0.0401
c. P(x < 0.75) = P(z < -1.50) = 0.5000 - 0.4332 = 0.0668

7.27 p/a/m From exercise 7.11, x is normally distributed with  = $294,000 and  = $30,000.
a. P(239,000 < x < 259,000) = P(-1.83 < z < -1.17) = 0.4664 - 0.3790 = 0.0874
b. P(x > 259,000) = P(z > -1.17) = 0.5000 + 0.3790 = 0.8790
c. P(x < 324,000) = P(z < 1.00) = 0.5000 + 0.3413 = 0.8413

7.28 p/a/m From exercise 7.12, x is normally distributed with  = $84.57 and  = $10.
a. P(70 < x < 80) = P(-1.46 < z < -0.46) = 0.4279 - 0.1772 = 0.2507
b. P(x < 60) = P(z < -2.46) = 0.5000 - 0.4931 = 0.0069
c. P(x > 90) = P(z > 0.54) = 0.5000 - 0.2054 = 0.2946

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7.29 p/a/m From exercise 7.15, x is normally distributed with  = 30.0 minutes and  = 5 minutes.
a. P(x < 29) = P(z < -0.20) = 0.5000 - 0.0793 = 0.4207
b. P(29 < x < 33) ) = P(-0.20 < z < 0.60) = 0.0793 + 0.2257 = 0.3050
c. P(x > 32) = P(z > 0.40) = 0.5000 - 0.1554 = 0.3446

7.30 p/a/d From exercise 7.15, x is normally distributed with  = 30.0 minutes and  = 5 minutes.
The quantity to be determined is the commuting time (A) such that only 10% of Jamal’s commutes would
exceed A minutes.
A − 30.0
P(x  A) = 0.10 or P(z  ) = 0.10
5.0
To solve for A, find the value of z which corresponds to a right-tail area of 0.10. Referring to the standard
normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.1000 = 0.4000 in the body of the table. The nearest value to 0.4000 is
0.3997, so we will use z = 1.28 in our next calculation:
A − 30.0
Equating to 1.28, solve for A, and A = 36.4 minutes. Only 10% of Jamal’s commutes will be
5.0
longer than 36.4 minutes.

7.31 p/a/d From exercise 7.11, x is normally distributed with  = $294,000 and  = $30,000.
The quantity to be determined is the first-mortgage amount (A) such that only 5% of the mortgage
customers exceed A dollars.
A − 294, 000
P(x  A) = 0.05 or P(z  ) = 0.05
30, 000
To solve for A, find the value of z which corresponds to a right-tail area of 0.05. Referring to the standard
normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.0500 = 0.4500 in the body of the table. The area from
z = 0.00 to z = 1.64 includes an area of 0.4495 and the area from z = 0.00 to z = 1.65 includes an area of
0.4505. The 0.4500 area corresponds to a z that is halfway between z = 1.64 and z = 1.65, so we will
interpolate and use z = 1.645.
A − 294, 000
P(z > 1.645) = 0.05. Equating to 1.645, solve for A, and A = $343,350.
30, 000

7.32 p/a/d From exercise 7.12, x is normally distributed with  = $84.57 and  = $10.
The quantity to be determined is the tax preparation fee (F) such that 90% of the tax preparation
customers exceed F dollars.
F − 84.57
P(x > F) = 0.90 or P(z > ) = 0.90
10
There is some value z0 for which P(z > z0) = 0.90. The value z0 is negative.
To find z0, look up 0.9000 - 0.5000 = 0.4000 in the body of the table. The nearest value to 0.4000 is
0.3997. Since z0 is negative, z = -1.28.
F − 84.57
Equating to -1.28, solve for F , and F = $71.77.
10

7.33 p/a/m Given x = annual expenditure is normally distributed with  = $6050,  = $1500.
a. P(x > 6350) = P(z > 0.20) = 0.5000 – 0.0793 = 0.4207
b. We are looking for the z value corresponding to an area of 0.4900 in the standard normal table.
The closest value is z = 2.33. Solving (E – 6050)/1500 = 2.33, we obtain E = $9545.

7.34 p/a/d Let x = distance traveled by the circus performer, with  = 150 ft.,  = 10 ft.

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a. To maximize Andre's probability of landing on the net, position the net so the center is at the mean.
The net must then be placed 150 - 15 = 135 feet from the cannon.
135 − 150 165 − 150
b. P(135  x  165) = P( z ) = P(-1.5 < z < 1.5) = 0.8664
10 10

7.35 p/a/d Let x = drying time. The distribution is normal with  = 2.5 mins. and  = 0.25 mins.
A-2.5
The problem is to find A so P(x  A) = 0.9980, or P(z  ) = 0.9980
0.25
We need to find the z value that corresponds to an area of 0.9980 – 0.5000 = 0.4980 in our standard
A - 2.5
normal table. The closest z value is z = 2.88. Thus, P(z  2.88) = 0.9980 and P(z  ) = 0.9980
0.25
A - 2.5
So = 2.88, or A = 2.5 + 0.25(2.88) = 3.22 minutes. The timer is set to dry for 3.22 minutes.
0.25

7.36 p/a/d The pump lifetimes are currently normally distributed with  = 63,000 miles and  = 10,000
miles.
a. For 50,000 miles, z will be (50,000 – 63,000)/10,000 = -1.30.
P(x < 50,000) = 0.5000 – 0.4032 = 0.0968, and 9.68% of the pumps will fail before 50,000 miles.
b. P(x = 50,000) = 0.
c. P(40,000 < x < 55,000) = P(-2.30 < z < -0.80) = 0.4893 – 0.2881 = 0.2012, and 20.12% of the pumps
will fail between 40,000 and 50,000 miles.
d. The quantity to be determined is the mileage (A) such that 80% of the pumps will have a life less than
A.
A − 63, 000
P(A  x) = 0.80 or P(z  ) = 0.80
10, 000
Using the standard normal table, find the z value for which the area from the midpoint to this z value
will be 0.30. The nearest table value is an area of 0.2995, corresponding to z = 0.84.
A − 63, 000
Equating to 0.84, solve for A, and A = 71,400 miles. The probability is 0.80 that a pump
10, 000
will fail before it has been in use for 71,400 miles.

7.37 p/a/d The pump lifetimes are currently normally distributed with  = 63,000 miles and  = 10,000
miles. The mean will now have to be a value such that the area to the left of x = 50,000 is just 0.0200.
Since the standard normal distribution table gives areas from the midpoint, we must look for the z value
corresponding to an area of 0.4800. The nearest area listed is 0.4798, associated with z = -2.05. We can
now set up an expression that can be solved for the value of the necessary mean, M:
50, 000 − M
This is −2.05 = and, solving for M, we find that M = 70,500 miles.
10, 000

7.38 p/a/d Assume the battery lifetimes to be normally distributed with  = 8 hours and  = 2 hours.
In order for Edgar to be rescued during the night, his flashlight must be able to shine longer than the 6
hours from 9 PM to 3 AM. The z value associated with P(x > 6) hours is (6 - 8)/2, or z = -1.00.
Using the standard normal table, P(x > 6) = P(z > -1.00) = 0.5000 + 0.3413 = 0.8413. There is a 0.8413
probability that Edgar’s flashlight will work long enough for him to be seen and rescued.

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7.39 d/p/m The correction expands each possible value of a discrete variable by 0.5 in each direction. This
is needed because the binomial distribution is discrete (having gaps between the possible values) while
the normal distribution is continuous and can take on any value within an interval.

7.40 d/p/m The normal approximation to the binomial distribution is quite close whenever both n and
n(1 - ) are  5.

7.41 c/a/m
a.  = n = 40(0.25) = 10.0 and  = n(1 − ) = 40(0.25)(1 − 0.25) = 2.739
b. P(x = 8) = P(7.5  x  8.5) after continuity correction.
7.5 − 10 8.5 − 10
P( z ) = (−0.91  z  −0.55) = 0.3186 − 0.2088 = 0.1098
2.739 2.739
P(12  x  16) = P(11.5  x  16.5) after continuity correction.
11.5 − 10 16.5 − 10
P( z ) = (0.55  z  2.37) = 0.4911 − 0.2088 = 0.2823
2.739 2.739
P(10  x  12) = P(9.5  x  12.5) after continuity correction.
9.5 − 10 12.5 − 10
P( z ) = (−0.18  z  0.91) = 0.0714 + 0.3186 = 0.3900
2.739 2.739
P(x  14) = P(x  13.5) after continuity correction.
13.5 − 10
P(z  ) = P(z  1.28) = 0.5000 − 0.3997 = 0.1003
2.739

7.42 c/a/m
a.  = n = 30(0.20) = 6.0 and  = n(1 − ) = 30(0.20)(1 − 0.20) = 2.191
b. P(x = 5) = P(4.5  x  5.5) after continuity correction.
4.5 − 6 5.5 − 6
P( z ) = P(−0.68  z  −0.23) = 0.2517 − 0.0910 = 0.1607
2.191 2.191
P(4  x  7) = P(3.5  x  7.5) after continuity correction.
3.5 − 6 7.5 − 6
P( z ) = P(−1.14  z  0.68) = 0.3729 + 0.2517 = 0.6246
2.191 2.191
P(1  x  5) = P(0.5  x  5.5) after continuity correction.
0.5 − 6 5.5 − 6
P( z ) = P(−2.51  z  −0.23) = 0.4940 − 0.0910 = 0.4030
2.191 2.191
P(x  7) = P(x  6.5) after continuity correction.
6.5 − 6
P(z  ) = P(z  0.23) = 0.5000 − 0.0910 = 0.4090
2.191

7.43 p/a/d Given x is binomial with  = 0.60 and n = 20.

a.  = n = 20(0.60) = 12.0  = n(1 − ) = 20(0.60)(1 − 0.60) = 2.19
b. Referring to the individual binomial tables in the appendix, P(x = 12) = 0.1797.
c. Using the normal approximation to the binomial distribution, P(x = 12) = P(11.5  x  12.5) after
continuity correction, = P(-0.23  z  0.23) = 2(0.0910) = 0.1820.
d. P(x  10) = P(x  9.5) after continuity correction, = P(z  -1.14) = 0.5000 + 0.3729 = 0.8729.

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7.44 p/a/d Given x is binomial with  = 0.30 and n = 25.
a.  = n = 25(0.30) = 7.5  = n(1 − ) = 25(0.30)(1 − 0.30) = 2.291
b. P(x = 8) = 0.1651 from the table of individual binomial probabilities.
c. P(6  x  9) = P(x  9) – P(x  5) = 0.8106 - 0.1935 = 0.6171 from the table of cumulative binomial
probabilities.
d. P(x = 8) = P(7.5  x  8.5) after continuity correction, = P(0.00  z  0.44) = 0.1700.
e. P(6  x  9) = P(5.5  x  9.5) after continuity correction, = P(-0.87  z  0.87) = 2(0.3078) = 0.6156.

7.45 p/a/m Let x = the number of tax returns in this group prepared by H & R Block, x is binomial with
 = 0.137 and n = 1000.
 = n = 1000(0.137) = 137  = n(1 − ) = 1000(0.137)(1 − 0.137) = 10.873
P(110  x  140) = P(109.5  x  140.5) after continuity correction, = P(-2.53  z  0.32) =
0.4943 + 0.1255 = 0.6198.

7.46 p/a/m Let x = the number of households in this group that have a camcorder, x is binomial with
 = 0.54 and n = 800.
 = n = 800(0.54) = 432  = n(1 − ) = 800(0.54)(1 − 0.54) = 14.097
P(x  420) = P(x  419.5) after continuity correction, = P(z  -0.89) = 0.5000 + 0.3133 = 0.8133

7.47 p/a/m From exercise 7.45, x is binomial with  = 0.137 and n = 1000,  = 137,  = 10.873.
Without continuity correction, P(110  x  140) = P(-2.48  z  0.28) = 0.4934 + 0.1103 = 0.6037.
With the continuity correction, P(110  x  140) was equal to 0.6198. The probabilities differ by just
0.0161. The larger n is or the closer  is to 0.5, the less important the correction becomes.

7.48 p/a/m From exercise 7.46, x is binomial with  = 0.54 and n = 800,  = 432,  = 14.097.
P(x  420) = P(z  -0.85) = 0.5000 + 0.3023 = 0.8023
With the continuity correction, P(x  420) was 0.8133. The probabilities differ by just 0.0110. The larger
n is or the closer  is to 0.5, the less important the correction becomes.

7.49 d/p/e The Poisson distribution describes a discrete random variable which is the number of "rare
events" occurring during a given interval of time, space, or distance. For a Poisson process, the
exponential distribution describes a continuous random variable, x = the amount of time, space, or
distance between occurrences of these rare events.

7.50 d/p/m A Poisson random variable would be x = the number of drivers who have the correct change
in an hour. The exponential-distribution counterpart would be y = the hours between drivers who have the
correct change.

7.51 d/p/m A Poisson random variable would be x = the number of calls from customers in a minute.
The exponential-distribution counterpart would be y = minutes between calls from customers.

7.52 c/a/m With x exponentially distributed with mean = 1/  = 1/1.5 = 2/3, P(x  k) = e−k = e−1.5k
a. P(x  0.5) = e−1.5(0.5) = e−0.75 = 0.4724 b. P(x  1.0) = e−1.5(1.0) = e−1.5 = 0.2231
c. P(x  1.5) = e−1.5(1.5) = e−2.25 = 0.1054 d. P(x  2.0) = e−1.5(2.0) = e−3.0 = 0.0498

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7.53 c/a/m With x exponentially distributed with mean = 1/  = 1/0.02 = 50, P(x  k) = e−k = e−0.02k
a. P(x  30) = e−0.02(30) = e−0.6 = 0.5488 b. P(x  40) = e−(0.02)40 = e−0.8 = 0.4493
c. P(x  50) = e−(0.02)50 = e−1.0 = 0.3679 d. P(x  60) = e−(0.02)60 = e−1.2 = 0.3012

7.54 c/a/m With x exponentially distributed with mean = 1/  = 1/0.5 = 2.0, P(x  k) = e−k = e−0.5k
a. P(x  0.5) = e−(0.5)0..5 = e−0.25 = 0.7788 and P(x  0.5) = 1 - 0.7788 = 0.2212
b. P(x  1.5) = e−(0.5)1.5 = e−0.75 = 0.4724 and P(x  1.5) = 1 - 0.4724 = 0.5276
c. P(x  2.5) = e−(0.5)2.5 = e−1.25 = 0.2865 d. P(x  3.0) = e−(0.5)3.0 = e−1.5 = 0.2231

7.55 p/a/m The mean of the corresponding Poisson distribution would be  = 1/8 = 0.125, so
P(x  10) = e−(0.125)10 = e−1.25 = 0.2865

7.56 p/a/d Given x is exponentially distributed with a mean of 1/ = 5.3 minutes:
−k
P(x  k) = e −k = e 5.3
−3
and P(x  3) = 1 − P(x  3) =1 − e 5.3 = 1 − e −0.566 = 1 − 0.5678 = 0.4322

7.57 p/a/d The variable x = thousands of flying hours between fatal crashes is exponentially distributed
with a mean of 1/ = 1/0.0120 = 83.33 thousand flying hours, and Arnold’s Flying Service flies 40
thousand hours each year.
The probability that Arnold’s will not experience a fatal crash until at least a year from today, or until at
least x = 40 thousand flying hours, is P(x  40) = e−0.0120(40) = e−0.48 = 0.619 .
The probability that Arnold’s will not experience a fatal crash until at least two years from today, or until
at least x = 80 thousand flying hours, is P(x  80) = e−0.0120(80) = e−0.96 = 0.383 .
This is most easily done with the computer. We want the inverse of the cumulative probability
distribution, and the specific cumulative probability of interest is 1 - 0.90, or 0.10. As shown in the
Minitab printout below, there is a 0.10 probability that the next fatal crash will occur within the next
8.7797 thousand flying hours.
Inverse Cumulative Distribution Function
Exponential with mean = 83.33

P( X <= x ) x
0.1 8.77969

Accordingly, there is a 0.90 probability that no fatal crash will occur until at least 8.7797 thousand flying
hours from now. This can also be expressed as
P(x  8.7797) = e−0.0120(8.7797) = 0.90 .

7.58 p/a/d We can express  as 5(0.007) = 0.035 fatalities per million worker-hours. The mean of the
corresponding exponential distribution is of 1/ = 1/0.035 = 28.57143 million worker-hours between
fatalities. Regardless of how many worker-hours occur in the industry, the expected number of worker-
hours until the next fatality is the mean of the distribution, or 28.57143 million worker-hours.
Over the next 30 years, the company will have 30,000,000 worker-hours. The probability that the next
fatal injury in this company will not occur until at least 30 years from now is

139
P(x  30) = e−0.035(30) = e−1.05 = 0.350 .

7.59 c/p/m
Boxplot of x

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
x

7.60 c/p/m
Boxplot of x

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

x

7.61 c/a/m Given x is normally distributed with  = 150 and  = 25.

P(x  140) = P(x   - 1.2) = P(z  -1.20) = 0.5000 - 0.3849 = 0.1151
We would expect 230.2 of the 2000 observations (11.51%) to have a value of 140 or less. The actual
number would not be equal to the expected number. However, the more observations we select the closer
we will tend to come to what we expect.
7.62 c/a/m Given x is normally distributed with  = 150 and  = 25.
P(x  300) = P(x   + 2) = P(z  2.00) = 0.5000 - 0.4772 = 0.0228
We would expect 22.8 of the 1000 observations (2.28%) to have a value of 300 or more. The actual
number would not be equal to the expected number. However, the more observations we select the closer
we will tend to come to what we expect.

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CHAPTER EXERCISES
7.63 p/a/d Let x = the number of jurors that are charge-account holders; x is binomial with n = 9 and
 = 0.35. Since n = 9(0.35) = 3.15 is less than 5, we cannot use the normal approximation to the
binomial. Using the binomial distribution and Minitab cumulative probabilities:
Binomial with n = 9 and p = 0.350000
x P( X <= x)
0 0.0207
1 0.1211
2 0.3373
3 0.6089

P(x  4) = 1 – P(x  3) = 1 – 0.6089 = 0.3911

7.64 p/a/m Let x = the number of subjects who prefer soft drink A; x is binomial with n = 200 and
 = 0.5 (assuming there is no difference in the taste of A and B). Using the normal approximation to the
binomial,
 = n = 200(0.5) = 100 and  = n(1 − ) = 200(0.5)(1 − 0.5) = 7.071
P(x  110) = P(x  109.5) after continuity correction.
109.5 − 100
P(x  109.5) = P(z  ) = P(z  1.34) = 0.5000 – 0.4099 = 0.0901
7.071

7.65 p/p/d According to exercise 7.64, 9.01% of the time at least 110 out of 200 persons would say they
like soft drink A better than B even if the soft drinks are not really different. Soft drink A might be
superior to B since 110 out of 200 persons did say they like soft drink A better than B. However, this
could be just a chance occurrence.

7.66 p/a/m Let x = the gas bill for customers in this community heating their homes with gas;
x is normally distributed with  = $457 and  = $80.
382 − 457
a. P(x  382) = P(z  ) = P(z  −0.94) = 0.5000 + 0.3264 = 0.8264
80
497 − 457 537 − 457
b. P(497  x  537) = P( z ) = P(0.50  z  1.00)
80 80
= 0.3413 - 0.1915 = 0.1498

c. The quantity to be determined is the gas bill (G) such that only 2.5% of the homes' gas bills exceed G
dollars, or P(x > G) = 0.025. First, find the value of z that corresponds to a right-tail area of 0.025.
Referring to the standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.0250 = 0.4750. The area from z = 0.00 to
z = 1.96 is 0.4750. Now substitute  = 457,  = 80, and z = 1.96 into the z-score formula:
x − G − 457
z= 1.96 = Solving for G: G = $613.80
 80

d. The quantity to be determined is the gas bill (G) such that 95% of the homes' gas bills exceed G
dollars, or P(x > G) = 0.95. First, find the value of z which corresponds to a left-tail area of 1 - 0.95 =
0.05. Referring to the standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.0500 = 0.4500. The area from z = 0.00
to z = 1.64 includes an area of 0.4495 and the area from z = 0.00 to z = 1.65 includes an area of
0.4505. Using interpolation, z = -1.645. z is negative since it is located on the left side of 0.
Now substitute  = 457,  = 80, and z = -1.645 into the z-score formula:

141
 x − G − 457
z= = −1.645 Solving for G: G = $325.40
 80

7.67 p/a/m Let x = the amount of life insurance coverage for insured households with heads 35-44 years
old; x is normally distributed with  = $186,100 and  = $40,000
130, 000 − 186,100
P(x  130, 000) = P(z  ) = P(z  −1.40) = 0.5000 − 0.4192 = 0.0808
40, 000

7.68 p/a/m Let x = the flying hours for aircraft operated by regional airlines in the U.S.; x is normally
distributed with  = 2389 and  = 300.
2200 − 2389
a. P(x  2200) = P(z  ) = P(z  −0.63) = 0.5000 + 0.2357 = 0.7357
300
2000 − 2389 2400 − 2389
b. P(2000  x  2400) = P( z ) = P( −1.30  z  0.04)
300 300
= 0.4032 + 0.0160 = 0.4192

c. The quantity to be determined is the annual flying hours (F) such that only 15% of the aircraft exceed
F hours, or P(x > F) = 0.15. First, find the value of z that corresponds to a right-tail area of 0.15.
Referring to the standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.1500 = 0.3500. The area from z = 0.00 to z
= 1.04 is 0.3508, which is the closest value to 0.3500. Now substitute  = 2389,
 = 300, and z = 1.04 into the z-score formula.
x − F - 2389
z= or 1.04 = Solving for F: F = 2701 hours
 300

d. The quantity to be determined is the annual flying hours (F) such that 75% of the aircraft exceed F
hours, or P(x > F) = 0.75. First, find the value of z corresponding to a left-tail area of 1 - 0.75 = 0.25.
Referring to the standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.2500 = 0.2500. The area from
z = 0.00 to z = -0.67 is 0.2486, the closest value to 0.2500. z is negative since it is located on the left
side of 0. Now substitute  = 2389,  = 300, and z = -0.67 into the z-score formula.
x − F - 2389
z= or - 0.67 = Solving for F: F = 2188 hours
 300

7.69 p/a/m Let x = the daily volume of packages for FedEx; x is normally distributed with
 = 3,077,000 and  = 400,000.
3, 000, 000 − 3, 077, 000) 3, 200, 000 − 3, 077, 000
P(3, 000, 000  x  3, 200, 000) = P( z )
400, 000 400, 000
= P(-0.19 < z < 0.31) = 0.0753 + 0.1217 = 0.1970

7.70 p/a/m Let x = charitable contribution; x is normally distributed with  = $1935 and  = $400.
1600 − 1935
a. P(x  1600) = P(z  ) = P(z  −0.84) = 0.5000 + 0.2995 = 0.7995
400
2200 − 1935 2400 − 1935
b. P(2200  x  2400) = P( z )
400 400
= P(0.66 < z < 1.16) = 0.3770 - 0.2454 = 0.1316

142
c. The quantity to be determined is the level of contributions (C) such that only 20% of the itemized
returns in this group exceed C dollars, or P(x > C) = 0.20. First, find the value of z corresponding to a
right-tail area of 0.20. Referring to the standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.2000 = 0.3000. The
area from z = 0.00 to z = 0.84 is 0.2995, which is the closest value to 0.3000.
Now substitute  = 1935,  = 400, and z = 0.84 into the z-score formula:
x − C − 1935
z=  0.84 = Solving for C: C = $2271
 400

d. The quantity to be determined is the level of contributions (C) such that 40% of the itemized returns in
this group exceed C dollars, or P(x > C) = 0.4. First, find the value of z corresponding to a right-tail
area of 0.40. Referring to the standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.4000 = 0.1000. The area from z
= 0.00 to z = 0.25 is 0.0987 which is the closest value to 0.1000.
Now substitute  = 1935,  = 400, and z = 0.25 into the z-score formula:
x − C − 1935
z=  0.25 = Solving for C: C = $2035
 400

7.71 p/a/m Let x = the number of persons of voting age in the sample that voted in the 2004 presidential
election; x is binomial with n = 30 and  = 0.72. Since n = 30(0.72) = 21.6 and
n(1 - ) = 30(1 – 0.72) = 8.4 are both larger than 5, we can use the normal approximation.
 = n = 30(0.72) = 21.6,  = n(1 − ) = 30(0.72)(1 − 0.72) = 2.459
Applying correction for continuity:
19.5 − 21.6
P(x  20) = P(x  19.5) = P(z  ) = P(z  −0.85) = 0.5000 + 0.3023 = 0.8023
2.459

7.72 p/a/d Let x = the number of persons interviewed who felt the company to be an industry leader; x is
binomial with n = 500 and  = 0.8 (assuming the public relations agency's claim is correct). We will use
the normal approximation to the binomial.
 = n = 500(0.8) = 400,  = n(1 − ) = 500(0.8)(1 − 0.8) = 8.944
Applying continuity correction:
320.5 − 400
P(x  320) = P(x  320.5) = P(z  ) = P(z  −8.89) = 0.00
8.944

7.73 p/a/d According to exercise 7.72, if the public relations agency's claim is correct, there is practically
no chance whatsoever of only 320 or fewer people out of 500 feeling the company is an industry leader.
Therefore, if the survey taken was a good random sample of the residents in a 50-mile radius, the public
relations agency's claim does not appear to be correct.

7.74 p/a/d Let x = minutes between occurrences, x is exponentially distributed. The best estimate of the
mean (1/) would be:

x=
 x 412
= = 2.747
n 15
The mean of the corresponding Poisson distribution is the inverse of the mean of the exponential
distribution. The best estimate of the mean () is 1/2.747 = 0.364.

143
7.75 p/a/m P(x  k) = e−k The mean and standard deviation of the exponential distribution (1/) is:
1
1/ = = 41.667 Therefore, P(x  k) = e-0.024k and
0.024

P(x  45) = 1 − e−0.024(45) = 1 − e−1.08 = 1 − 0.3396 = 0.6604

7.76 p/a/m The mean of the exponential distribution is 1/ = 1/0.035 = 28.571.
P(x  k) = e −k = e −0.035k
P(x  32) = e −0.035(32) = e −1.12 = 0.3263

7.77 p/a/m Let x = the number of years until the next highway motorcycle fatality. For the club members,
we would expect 0.39 deaths per 1 million miles or 0.78 deaths per 2 million miles (one year of travel).
P(x  k) = e−0.78k and P(x  1) = e−0.78(1) = e−0.78 = 0.4584
P(x  2) = e−0.78(2) = e−1.56 = 0.2101

7.78 p/a/m Let x = the actual weight of the package of cheese in ounces; x is normally distributed with
 = 21 and  = 0.2.
20.5 − 21
a. P(x  20.5) = P(z  ) = P(z  −2.50) = 0.5000 + 0.4938 = 0.9938
0.2
b. P(20.5  x  21.3)
20.5 − 21 21.3 − 21
= P( z ) = P(−2.50  z  1.50) = 0.4938 + 0.4332 = 0.9270
0.2 0.2
c. First, we need to find the probability of one package containing at least 21.2 ounces of cheese.
21.2 − 21
P(x  21.2) = P(z  ) = P(z  1.00) = 0.5000 − 0.3413 = 0.1587
0.2
Let y = the number of packages selected that contain at least 21.2 ounces of cheese, y is binomial with
n = 8 and n = 0.1587. Using Minitab and the cumulative probabilities listed below in finding P(y  3):
Binomial with n = 8 and p = 0.158700
x P( X <= x)
0 0.2510
1 0.6297
2 0.8797

and P(y  3) = 1- P(y  2) = 1 - 0.8797 = 0.1203.

7.79 p/a/d Let x = the score on the exam; assume x is normally distributed with  = 81,  = 8.5.
78 − 81 88 − 81
P(78  x  88) = P( z ) = P(−0.35  z  0.82) = 0.1368 + 0.2939 = 0.4307
8.5 8.5

7.80 p/a/d Let x = game minutes between sprained ankles; x is exponentially distributed with a mean of
1/ = 1/0.0023 = 434.783.
P(x  k) = e−k = e−0.0023k
a. P(x  60) = 1 − P(x  60) = 1 − e−0.0023(60) = 1 − e−0.138 = 1 − 0.8711 = 0.1289
b. P(x  600) = 1 − P(x  600) = 1 − e−0.0023(600) = 1 − e−1.38 = 1 − 0.2516 = 0.7484
c. P(x = 58) = 0 since x is a continuous random variable.

144
7.81 p/a/d Let x = the actual precooked hamburger weight, and x is normally distributed with  = 5.5
ounces and  = 0.15 ounces. The probability that the journalist will receive a hamburger with a precooked
weight less than 5.3 ounces is
5.3 − 5.5
P(x  5.3) = P(z  ) = P(z  −1.33) = 0.5000 - 0.4082 = 0.0918
0.15
The probability that at least 2 of the four customers will receive a hamburger with precooked weight
greater than 5.7 ounces:
5.7 − 5.5
First, for a single hamburger, P(x  5.7) = P(z  ) = P(z  1.33) = 0.5000 - 0.4082 = 0.0918.
0.15
For a binomial process with n = 4 trials and  = 0.0918, we can find P(x  2) either with the pocket
calculator and the methods of chapter 6, or with the computer. The Minitab printout and cumulative
probabilities are shown below.
Binomial with n = 4 and p = 0.0918000
x P( X <= x )
0.00 0.6803
1.00 0.9554
2.00 0.9971
3.00 0.9999
4.00 1.0000

and P(x  2) = 1 - P(x  1) = 1 - 0.9554 = 0.0446.

7.82 p/a/d Let x = the actual weight of the package contents, and x is normally distributed with
 = 20.3 ounces and  = 0.3 ounces.
P(20  x  21)
20.0 − 20.3 21.0 − 20.3
= P( z ) = P( −1.00  z  2.33) = 0.3413 + 0.4901 = 0.8314
0.3 0.3
The probability that any single box will contain less than 20.0 ounces
20.0 − 20.3
= P(x  20.0) = P(z  ) = P(z  −1.00) = 0.5000 - 0.3413 = 0.1587
0.3
For a binomial process with n = 100 trials,  = 0.1587, and x = the number of boxes that contain less than
20.0 ounces, we can find P(x  5) either with the pocket calculator and the methods of chapter 6, or with
the computer. The Minitab printout and cumulative probabilities are shown below.
Binomial with n = 100 and p = 0.158700
x P( X <= x )
0.00 0.0000
1.00 0.0000
2.00 0.0000
3.00 0.0000
4.00 0.0002
5.00 0.0008
6.00 0.0024
7.00 0.0067
8.00 0.0160
9.00 0.0340
10.00 0.0649
With P(x > 5) = 1 - P(x  5) = 1 - 0.0008 = 0.9992, it’s virtually certain the company will be sued.
We could also use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution in solving this portion of the
exercise. The descriptors of the relevant normal distribution are  = n = 100(0.1587) = 15.87 and
 = n(1 − ) = 100(0.1587)(1 − 0.1587) = 3.654.

145
7.83 p/a/d The quantity to be determined is the mean weight (M) that would result in just 2% of the
packages containing less than 20 ounces. First, find the value of z corresponding to a left-tail area of
0.0200. Referring to the standard normal table, we find this to be z = -2.05.
Now substitute  = M,  = 0.3, and z = -2.05 into the z-score formula:
x − 20.0 − M
z=  −2.05 = Solving for M: M = 20.615 ounces, the necessary mean.
 0.3

7.84 p/a/m Given x is binomial with n = 40 and  = 250/2000 = 0.125; since n = 40(0.125) = 5.0
and n(1 - ) = 40(1 - 0.125) = 35.0 are  5, we can use the normal approximation to the binomial.
 = n = 40(0.125) = 5.0 and  = n(1 − ) = 40(0.125)(1 − 0.125) = 2.09

With x = the number of defective computers received, and using the correction for continuity:
P(0  x  2) = P(-0.5  x  2.5) after continuity correction,
−0.5 − 5.0 2.5 − 5.0
and P( z ) = P(−2.63  z  −1.20) = 0.4957 − 0.3849 = 0.1108
2.09 2.09

P(1  x  3) = P(0.5  x  3.5) after continuity correction,

0.5 − 5.0 3.5 − 5.0
and P( z ) = P(−2.15  z  −0.72) = 0.4842 − 0.2642 = 0.2200
2.09 2.09
We could also use the binomial distribution and the computer, treating this as a binomial process with
n = 40 trials,  = 0.125, and x = number of defective computers in the shipment received by the firm.

7.85 p/a/d
a. The mean of the Poisson distribution is  = 1.25/10,000, or 0.000125 punctures per mile. Its inverse is
the mean of the corresponding exponential distribution, 1/ = 8000 miles between punctures.
The probability they will not have to change any tires during their vacation is:
P(x  k) = e−k = e−0.000125k and P(x  6164) = e−0.000125(6164) = e−0.7705 = 0.4628

b. The probability that they will not experience a puncture before getting to Denver (2016 miles):
P(x  2016) = e−0.000125(2016) = e−0.2520 = 0.7772

c. The probability is 0.80 that they will experience a puncture before M miles.
This is most easily done with the computer. We want the inverse of the cumulative probability
distribution, and the cumulative probability of interest is 0.80. As shown in the Minitab printout below,
there is a 0.80 probability that the next puncture will occur within the next 12,900 miles.
Inverse Cumulative Distribution Function
Exponential with mean = 8000.00
P( X <= x ) x
0.8000 1.29E+04

Accordingly, there is a 0.20 probability that no puncture until at least 12,900 miles from now.
This can also be expressed as: P(x  12,900) = e−0.000125(12,900) = 0.20
7.86 p/a/m The mean of the exponential distribution is 8.0 minutes. We can use the computer to find the
time duration that is exceeded by only 10% of the calls. The cumulative probability of interest is 1 - 0.10,
or 0.90. The Minitab printout is shown below.
Inverse Cumulative Distribution Function
Exponential with mean = 8.00000
P( X <= x ) x
0.9000 18.4207

146
A technical support call must last 18.4207 minutes before it qualifies for redirection to a manager.

7.87 p/a/m For x = minutes between patrol car visits, the mean is 20 minutes and x is exponentially
distributed. The probability of the alarm shutting off before the next patrol car arrives is P(x > 15).
Using Minitab to find this probability, the printout and cumulative probabilities are shown below.
Cumulative Distribution Function
Exponential with mean = 20.0000
x P( X <= x )
10.0000 0.3935
15.0000 0.5276
20.0000 0.6321

and P(x > 15) = 1 - P(x  15) = 1.000 - 0.5276 = 0.4724

INTEGRATED CASES

THORNDIKE SPORTS EQUIPMENT (THORNDIKE VIDEO UNIT THREE)

Let x = weight of the racquet in grams; x is normally distributed with  = 240 and  = 10.
For "Graph-Pro Light"
The quantity to be determined is the weight (W) such that only 15% of the racquets are lighter than
W grams, or P(x < W) = 0.15. First, find the value of z corresponding to a left-tail area of 0.15. In the
standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.1500 = 0.3500. Taking the closest value, z = -1.04.
Now substitute  = 240,  = 10, and z = -1.04 into the z-score formula.
W − W − 240
z= or = −1.04 Solving for W: W = 229.6 grams.
 10
Therefore, in order to be classified as a "Graph-Pro Light" racquet, the racquet should weigh less than
229.6 grams.

For "Graph-Pro Stout":

The quantity to be determined is the weight (W) such that only 5% of the racquets are heavier than
W grams, or P(x > W) = 0.05. First, find the value of z that corresponds to a right-tail area of 0.05.
Referring to the standard normal table, look up 0.5000 - 0.0500 = 0.4500. Using interpolation, z = 1.645.
Now substitute  = 240,  = 10, and z = 1.645 into the z-score formula.
W − W − 240
z= or = 1.645 Solving for W: W = 256.45 grams
 10
Therefore, in order to be classified as a "Graph-Pro Stout" racquet, the racquet should weigh more than
256.45 grams.

For "Graph-Pro Regular":

The racquets that weigh between 229.6 and 256.45 grams are classified as "Graph-Pro Regular".

THORNDIKE GOLF PRODUCTS DIVISION

1. We must first determine the probability of "success" (x  31.00) on any given trial. This is based on
the normal distribution with  = 30.00 and  = 2.00.
The corresponding z value is (31.00 – 30.00)/2.00, or z = 0.5. Referring to the normal table, we find
P(z  0.5) is 0.5000 - 0.1915, or 0.3085. Using Minitab, we obtain the following individual and
cumulative binomial probabilities, which have been placed next to each other for purposes of clarity.

147
 BINOMIAL WITH N = 100 P = 0.308500 BINOMIAL WITH N = 100 P = 0.308500
K P( X = K) K P( X LESS OR = K)
13 0.0000 13 0.0000
14 0.0001 14 0.0001
15 0.0001 15 0.0002
16 0.0003 16 0.0005
17 0.0007 17 0.0012
18 0.0014 18 0.0027
19 0.0028 19 0.0054
20 0.0050 20 0.0104
21 0.0085 21 0.0189
22 0.0136 22 0.0324
23 0.0205 23 0.0530
24 0.0294 24 0.0824
25 0.0399 25 0.1222
26 0.0513 26 0.1735
27 0.0627 27 0.2362
28 0.0730 28 0.3092
29 0.0808 29 0.3900
30 0.0853 30 0.4753
31 0.0859 31 0.5613
32 0.0827 32 0.6440
33 0.0760 33 0.7200
34 0.0668 34 0.7868
35 0.0562 35 0.8430
36 0.0453 36 0.8883
37 0.0349 37 0.9232
38 0.0258 38 0.9491
39 0.0183 39 0.9674
40 0.0125 40 0.9799
41 0.0081 41 0.9880
42 0.0051 42 0.9931
43 0.0031 43 0.9962
44 0.0018 44 0.9980
45 0.0010 45 0.9990
46 0.0005 46 0.9995
47 0.0003 47 0.9998
48 0.0001 48 0.9999
49 0.0001 49 1.0000
50 0.0000

2. Using the normal approximation to the binomial distribution, the mean and standard deviation for
x = the number of balls out of 100 that will bounce at least 31.00 inches:

 = n = 100(0.3085) = 30.85 balls

 = n(1 − ) = 100(0.3085)(1 − 0.3085) = 4.6187 balls

148
Using the normal approximation,
cumulative probabilities for x
when  = 30.85 and  = 4.6187:

cumulative
x probability
1 8.5 0.00000
2 9.5 0.00000 Repeating the cumulative binomial probabilities:
3 10.5 0.00001
4 11.5 0.00001 BINOMIAL WITH N = 100 P = 0.308500
5 12.5 0.00004 K P( X LESS OR = K)
6 13.5 0.00009 13 0.0000
7 14.5 0.00020 14 0.0001
8 15.5 0.00044 15 0.0002
9 16.5 0.00095 16 0.0005
10 17.5 0.00192 17 0.0012
11 18.5 0.00375 18 0.0027
12 19.5 0.00700 19 0.0054
13 20.5 0.01252 20 0.0104
14 21.5 0.02147 21 0.0189
15 22.5 0.03531 22 0.0324
16 23.5 0.05576 23 0.0530
17 24.5 0.08459 24 0.0824
18 25.5 0.12336 25 0.1222
19 26.5 0.17314 26 0.1735
20 27.5 0.23413 27 0.2362
21 28.5 0.30545 28 0.3092
22 29.5 0.38503 29 0.3900
23 30.5 0.46980 30 0.4753
24 31.5 0.55596 31 0.5613
25 32.5 0.63955 32 0.6440
26 33.5 0.71693 33 0.7200
27 34.5 0.78531 34 0.7868
28 35.5 0.84298 35 0.8430
29 36.5 0.88939 36 0.8883
30 37.5 0.92504 37 0.9232
31 38.5 0.95117 38 0.9491
32 39.5 0.96945 39 0.9674
33 40.5 0.98166 40 0.9799
34 41.5 0.98944 41 0.9880
35 42.5 0.99417 42 0.9931
36 43.5 0.99692 43 0.9962
37 44.5 0.99844 44 0.9980
38 45.5 0.99924 45 0.9990
39 46.5 0.99965 46 0.9995
40 47.5 0.99984 47 0.9998
41 48.5 0.99993 48 0.9999
42 49.5 0.99997 49 1.0000
43 50.5 0.99999
44 51.5 1.00000

Yes, the probabilities are quite similar. In the normal approximation, the probability associated
with x = 40 successes corresponds to the area between x = 39.5 and x = 40.5, and so on.

3. Based on the assumed underlying distribution (normal, with  = 30.00 and  = 2.00 inches), the x
value that will be exceeded only 5% of the time can be computed as  + 1.645,
or 30.00 + 1.645(2.00) = 33.29 inches. Likewise, we can find the x value that will be exceeded 95% of
the time as  - 1.645, or 30.00 - 1.645(2.00) = 26.71 inches.We can also use the computer to obtain
these values to more decimal places, as shown in the Minitab printout below.
Inverse Cumulative Distribution Function
Normal with mean = 30.0000 and standard deviation = 2.00000
P( X <= x ) x
0.0500 26.7103
0.9500 33.2897

149
4. The probability that any given ball will score below 26.7103 inches is 0.05, as shown in the response
to question 3, above. For 3 consecutive balls, the probability that all 3 will score below 26.7103 inches
is 0.05(0.05)(0.05), or 0.000125.

5. and 6. Plot of bounce test results for balls 1 to 240:

I Chart of Bounce

35.0

+1.6SL=33.29
32.5
Individual Value

_
30.0 X=30

27.5
-1.6SL=26.71

25.0

1 40 80 120 160 200 240

Observation

7. and 8. It would appear that about 90% of the balls are within the expected upper and lower boundaries
(shown in the graph as 33.29 and 26.71, respectively), at least for the first 200 produced. However, in
the 200 to 240 range of production, there seem to be an inordinate number that fall below the lower
boundary. The "liveliness" of the balls has decreased from those produced earlier, and the machine
may require an adjustment that results in the balls having higher scores on the bounce test.

150
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The Project Gutenberg eBook of The
brother's return, and other stories
This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States
and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no
restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it
under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this
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you are located before using this eBook.

Title: The brother's return, and other stories

Author: A. L. O. E.

Release date: November 13, 2023 [eBook #72110]

Language: English

Original publication: United Kingdom: T. Nelson and Sons, 1886

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE

BROTHER'S RETURN, AND OTHER STORIES ***
Transcriber's note: Unusual and inconsistent spelling is as
printed.

SARAH MAY'S KINDNESS REMEMBERED.

 THE

BROTHER'S RETURN
AND OTHER STORIES.

BY

A. L. O. E.,

AUTHOR OF "FAIRY FRISKET," "FAIRY KNOW-A-BIT,"

"THE GIANT-KILLER,"
ETC. ETC.

London:
T. NELSON AND SONS, PATERNOSTER ROW.

EDINBURGH; AND NEW YORK.

1886.

CONTENTS.
THE BROTHER'S RETURN

BLACK YARN AND BLUE

THE SHEPHERD'S DOG

WHAT BIRD WOULD YOU BE?

THE HERO AND THE HEROINE

BEWARE OF THE WOLF

THE BROTHER'S RETURN

AND OTHER STORIES.

The Brother's Return.

"I COULD have been sure that John's house stood here,"
murmured Ralph Daines to himself as he looked around. "I
know that it stood by the turn of a road, just as one came
in sight of the church, and that it had a clump of trees in
front, just like these before me. Ah! Well, well," he added,
"it's more than twenty years since I turned away from my
brother's door—turned away in anger—and twenty years
will bring changes. Perhaps I've mistaken the place, after
all. I stayed but a short time with John, so that I never
knew his home well. In twenty years, one may forget; yes,
one may forget a spot, but there are some things which
never can be forgotten, however long we may live."

And amongst those things which rested upon Ralph's mind

was his quarrel with his brother, Long John—a quarrel so
sharp, that, after the two had parted, they had never seen
nor written to each other again. For twenty years and more,
Ralph had dwelt in a distant land, and had never so much
as sent a letter to inquire after the welfare of the brother
whom he had left in England. But when Ralph at last
returned to his native isle, his heart began to yearn towards
the only near relation whom he had upon earth. His anger
had been softened by time; and Ralph thought that his
brother's home should be his home, and that, though they
had parted in anger, they might yet meet again in affection.

Ralph Daines, after leaving his luggage at the inn nearest to

the place where his brother had dwelt, set out on foot for
the house, being sure that he knew the road well enough to
enable him to find it without much trouble. But the traveller
was perplexed, when he came near the spot where he
thought that the house should be, to see only waste land
overgrown with thistles and charlock, with bits of a tumble-
down fence which could not keep out some sheep that were
grazing where once a garden had been.

"Perhaps I've taken the wrong road, after all; perhaps I

should have turned to the left after passing the mile-stone,"
mused Ralph. "I wish now that I had inquired the way at the
inn, but I thought that I could not miss it. However, it
matters little, for here comes a child tripping along the path
over yon meadow. She perhaps may be able to tell me the
way to the house of John Daines."
Ralph leaned over the rough paling which bordered the
meadow, and waited till the little girl whom he saw carrying
a bundle of fagots should come up to the place where he
stood. The child looked poor, but her dress was neat, and
her cheeks were as rosy as the flowers which she had stuck
in her bosom.

"I say, my little friend," began Ralph, as soon as the child

could hear him, "is there not a lonely house near this place,
with red tiles and a porch, and a poultry-yard behind it?"

"I dun no, sir," said the child.

"Was there not once such a house on the plot of waste land
behind me?"

"I dun no," repeated the child, who was scarcely four years
old.

"I do not seem likely to get much information out of this

little one," said Ralph to himself; "but she may know
people, though she does not know places.—Does a Mr.
Daines live near this spot?" he inquired.

The child looked doubtful for a minute, then muttered, "Dun

no;" and seemed inclined to pass on.

"Wait a bit, little one," said Ralph. "You may perhaps have
heard of Mr. Daines as 'Long John,' for he often went by
that name!"

A gleam of intelligence broke at once over the rosy young

face. "Eh! Yes; he be father!" she cried. "Nobody don't call
him mister."

"Your father!" exclaimed Ralph in surprise; for the speech

and dress of the little girl were those of a poor peasant child
—not such as might have been expected in one brought up
in the comfortable house of his brother. "Do you mean to
say that Long John Daines is your father?"

The child nodded her head.

"And where is he now?" cried Ralph.

The little girl raised her sunburnt arm and pointed towards
the church which appeared at a little distance.

"Can you take me to the place, my little friend? I will help

you over the stile, and carry your fagots for you, and you
shall have a bright new shilling when we arrive at your
home."

The eyes of the child brightened. She let the stranger lift
her over the stile, and kiss her, and gaze in her face—saying
that her eyes were just like her father's. She then tripped
merrily along by his side, and in reply to Ralph's questions,
told him that her name was Mary, and that sometimes she
was called Polly. She did not know whether she had any
other name, but she knew that she was Long John's little
child, for all the folk knew that.

"Where is your mother?" asked Ralph. His brother had not

been married when they had parted, twenty years back.

"Mother is with father," said Mary.

"And is that their home?" inquired Ralph, as he approached

a pretty farmhouse which stood a little way back from the
road.

"Oh no!" cried Mary, in surprise at the question. "Not a big

home like that."
Ralph's face became graver and sadder, for the farmhouse
was not so large as the dwelling in which he had last seen
his brother. It was clear that Long John could not have
prospered in life; and this made Ralph more deeply regret
having so long harboured anger against him.

"Why had I the folly—the worse than folly—to keep up a

quarrel with my own brother!" thought he. "Poor John has
gone down in the world; I shall find him, perhaps, in
distress. He has needed the help of a brother, and knew not
where a letter would find me.—Has your father to work very
hard?" he inquired.

"Oh no," replied the child again, with a look of surprise.

The mind of Ralph was relieved. "Then he is never very

hungry?" said he.

"Never hungry," answered Mary gravely.

"It is a comfort that John has not known actual want,"

thought Ralph. "If I find him—as I expect—a poor man, I,
with plenty of money in my pocket, shall be able to start
him again in business."

Ralph walked for some time in silence by his little

companion, for his thoughts were full of the days of old. He
remembered how he had romped and played with his
brother when they had been children together; and he
remembered, alas! How often their sports had ended in
quarrelling and fighting. Both were proud, passionate boys;
neither liked to give in; neither could bear to ask pardon of
the brother whom he had wronged. The last sad quarrel
between Ralph and his brother had followed on a thousand
lesser ones, which had embittered the lives of both.
"Ah, how often our poor mother urged us to love one
another!" thought Ralph, now a worn elderly man, as he
recalled the days of his youth. "How she spoke to us of the
meekness and gentleness which should be shown by every
Christian, and taught us that he that is slow to anger is
better than the mighty; and he that ruleth his spirit than he
that taketh a city! What grief it would have given to our
mother could she have known that, after her death, her
sons would be more than twenty years without seeing or
hearing tidings of each other! But now I will make amends
for the past. Poor John shall find that for him and his family
I have an open purse and an open heart. I hope that the
quarrel which has kept us so long asunder may be the last
which shall ever arise between me and my only brother."

Ralph was so much engaged with thoughts such as these,

that he scarcely noticed that his little guide was now taking
him through the village churchyard, until she suddenly
stopped quite still, which made her companion stop also.
Mary pointed to a mound of turf, over which the long grass
was growing. There was a low head-stone by the mound,
with a short inscription upon it. Ralph started and trembled
when his glance fell on that stone. It bore two names: the
first that of MARY DAINES, who had died, aged twenty; the
next that of her husband, JOHN DAINES, who (as the date
showed) had died not a year before his brother's return.
Little Mary was too young to spell out the words on the
stone; but she had been taught to look on that grassy
mound as the home of her father and mother.

Great was the surprise of the child to see the burst of grief
to which her quiet, grave companion gave way. The little
one knew not how great had been her own loss; her childish
tears for her father had long since been dried; to her, there
was no deep sadness in the peaceful churchyard, or the
grassy mound on which daisies grew. Mary wondered why
the tall stranger should fall on his knees by the mound, and
bury his face in his hands, and sob as if he were a child.
Mary knew not what a bitter thing it is to repent too late of
unkindness shown to a brother; to wish—but to wish in vain
—to recall words which should never have been spoken,
deeds which should never have been done.

Ralph would at that moment have given all that he

possessed upon earth to have been able to say to himself,
"There was never anything but kindness and love between
me and him whom I shall see no more upon earth!"

At length, Ralph arose from the grave, with a heavy heart,

and eyes swollen with weeping. He took Mary up in his
arms, pressed her close to his heart, then covered her face
with kisses. He was thankful that there was yet one way left
by which he could show affection to his lost brother; he
would act the part of a father to John's little orphan girl.
Ralph promised by his brother's tomb that he would watch
over Mary, and care for her and love her, as if she were his
own child.

And well did Ralph keep that promise,—well did he supply a

parent's place to Mary. Not only did he feed and clothe her,
and give her a happy home, but he earnestly tried to bring
her up as a Christian child. He taught his little niece to give
and forgive, to bear and forbear, and never to lie down at
night to sleep before she had asked forgiveness of any one
whom she had offended during the day.

"Oh, my child!" Ralph would say with a sigh to Mary,

whenever she showed any sign of a proud or passionate
temper, "never let anger have time to grow, for its fruit is
sin and bitter sorrow. Pray for grace that you may be able
to keep the blessed command, 'Let all bitterness, and
wrath, and anger, and clamour, and evil-speaking, be put
away from you, with all malice; and be ye kind one to
another, tender-hearted, forgiving one another, even as
God, for Christ's sake, hath forgiven you.'"

Black Yarn and Blue.

SOFTLY outside Mary's cottage fell the rain, the gentle April
rain; and round and round went the wheel within the
cottage, where Mary sat at her spinning. Never did her
husband wear a pair of socks that was not of Mary's
spinning and knitting. The hum of the cottager's busy wheel
was a pleasant sound; and cheerful and bright looked
Mary's face as she busily spun her blue yarn.

But the face of her son Jemmy was neither cheerful nor
bright, as he sat, with his crutches beside him, in front of
the fire, with his back turned towards his mother. First
Jemmy yawned, then yawned again, and then he took to
sighing; and his sigh had so dreary a sound, that it drew
the attention of Mary.

"What are you thinking of, Jemmy, my lad?" asked the

mother, stopping the wheel for a minute.

"I am thinking of all my troubles," was the mournful reply,

uttered slowly, and in a tone most plaintive.

"Well, the accident to your leg was a great trouble; but the
poor leg is getting better,—the doctor says that you will
soon throw your crutches away," observed Mary cheerfully;
and round again went her wheel.

"I was not thinking of great troubles, but of little troubles,"

said Jemmy; "this has been an unlucky day. It rains when I
want to go out."

"Oh! The blessed rain, which will do the country such good!"
interrupted his mother.

"And I've lost my silver penny," continued Jemmy. "I cannot

find it, though I've hunted in every nook and cranny."

"Certainly that is no great trouble," laughed Mary. "Wait till

I've spun this yarn, and I'll help you to look for your silver
penny. And what is your next trouble, my boy?"

"That pretty plant which the gardener gave me is dying; it

is curling up all its leaves," sighed doleful Jemmy, glancing
towards a flowerpot which stood on the sill.

"I daresay that it only wants a little water," said Mary. "See
how the spring shower is making the fields and hedges
green! Your poor prisoner in the flowerpot has not had a
drop to drink since yesterday, when you brought it home.
Have you any more troubles, my boy?" The question was so
playfully asked, that Jemmy felt rather ashamed of his
sighing and grumbling.

"Only that Tom is unkind; he is always teasing me to come

out and fly the kite with him, when he knows that I have a
lame leg. He said, when he went out this morning, that my
coddling at home was all nonsense; that he'll make a
bonfire of my crutches some day, and that I never shall
miss them! It was very, very unkind."
"Tom is a little too fond of joking; but I really don't see
anything in that joke to set you sighing," said Mary,
laughing. "My dear boy, you are much too ready to set that
brain of yours spinning gloomy thoughts. Suppose that I
were to put black wool upon my wheel, what should I spin
but black yarn, and your father would have nought but
black stockings to wear. Why should one choose a dark
colour, when it costs nothing to have a cheerful one? So
with the yarn of thought. Take something pleasant to think
of, something bright to turn round and round in your mind.
Suppose now that, instead of your troubles, big or little, you
take to counting up all the kindnesses which you have
received since yesterday morning."

Jemmy had shifted his position, so that he was now sitting

looking at his mother; and a sight of her cheerful face was
in itself enough to brighten him up a little. Still, it was
rather in a grumbling manner that he replied, "I don't know
what kindnesses I have to count up. No one is ever kind to
me,—except, of course, you and my father."

"We count for something," cried Mary. "But think a little

longer, my lad—turn your wheel round a little faster." And
the spinner suited her action to her words.

"Well, Tom did mend my kite this morning; I suppose that

you would call that kind," observed Jemmy.

"Now were you not needlessly spinning black yarn instead

of blue, when you thought of Tom's rough joke instead of
his real act of kindness?" asked Mary.

"And perhaps it was kind in the gardener to give me that

plant; only it's dying now," said Jemmy.

"It was not dying when he gave it; I've seldom seen a
prettier flower. Have you no other kind deeds to
remember?" asked his mother.

It was a new thing to Jemmy to count up kindnesses

instead of troubles, and he rubbed his forehead, as if rather
perplexed.

"My grandfather gave me a shilling yesterday," he said at

last, "and that was a kindness."

"And you chose to think more of the penny lost than of the
shilling received! How fond some people are of choosing the
black yarn!" cried Mary.

"There's no one else that has done anything kind to me; I

can remember nothing more," said Jemmy, after a
moment's reflection.

"I can remember something for you, then. Who taught you
reading and spelling yesterday afternoon?"

"Oh, Sarah May," answered the boy. "But that is nothing

new; she has done that ever since the hurt in my leg
stopped my going to school."

"Yes, she has shown kindness to you every day for the last
ten weeks, and therefore you have forgotten to think of it
as kindness at all. O Jemmy, Jemmy. Here is a sad choosing
of the black yarn instead of the blue!"

"Teaching me costs Sarah nothing," began Jemmy; but he

stopped short, for he could not help feeling a little ashamed
of such ungrateful words.

"That is an odd thing to say!" cried Mary. "Does not

teaching cost Sarah trouble and time; and is it not for time
and trouble that every workman and workwoman is paid,
except those who, like Sarah, take to helping others from
kindness? I know that Sarah went in her old dress to church
last Sunday, because she had not had time to make up her
new one; I know that she has stopped at home to teach
you, when she might have been enjoying a pleasant walk
with her brother. I suppose that my lame kiddie thinks so
little of all this kindness because Sarah is good and patient,
and never grumbles at small troubles like somebody that I
know."

Mary went on with her spinning faster than before, leaving

Jemmy to turn over in his mind her little reproof. Perhaps
the yarn of his thoughts was dark enough at first; for
Jemmy was mortified to find what a silly, discontented,
ungrateful boy he had been. He sat silent for several
minutes, and then saying, "I had better water that plant,"
he rose from his seat, and went slowly up to the water-jug,
which stood in a corner of the room.

As soon as Jemmy had lifted the jug, he uttered an

exclamation of pleasure. "Oh, here is my silver penny!" he
cried. "It has been lying all the time under the jug!"

And in the jug all the time had been lying the water which
was all that was needed to make the delicate plant revive,
stretch out again its curling leaves, and lift up its drooping
blossoms. Jemmy felt pleasure in watering his flower; to do
so, he thought, was almost like giving drink to a thirsty
animal.

Jemmy was all the more pleased, because he had a little

plan in his mind, which he carried out on the following day.
When his mother had set him to count the kindnesses which
he had received, she had taught him also to feel grateful for
them.
But the little spinning-wheel of his brain did not rest there,
nor stop till Jemmy had found out some way of showing
that he was grateful. It was indeed but little that the lame
boy could do; but when he carried to Sarah May a nosegay
of all his best flowers, and saw her smile of pleasure as she
received it, a joyful sense of having done what was kind and
right filled the heart of the grateful boy. The yarn of
Jemmy's thoughts then seemed to have become as clear
and blue as the sky.

Dear reader, what thoughts is your little brain now

spinning? When you gratefully remember kindnesses from
earthly friends, blue and bright is the hue of your thoughts;
but when you are also thankful for all the countless
blessings bestowed by your Heavenly Friend, then the
thread is all turned into gold!

The Shepherd's Dog.

"WELL, uncle, and if I did kick the little beast, what of that?
He's only a dog, a mere shepherd's dog," said Steenie
Steers, in a tone of contempt, as he looked down on the
rough little creature that had crouched for protection beside
the chair of his master, Farmer Macalpine.

"And what is a dog—a shepherd's dog—but a useful

creature, a grateful creature, that might teach a lesson to
many of a nobler race?" said the farmer tartly.
Macalpine had a face almost as sharp and eyes almost as
keen as those of his four footed companion, and his shock
of tawny hair was almost as thick and rough as the coat of
his faithful Trusty. There was nothing smooth about Farmer
Macalpine, as his spoiled nephew found to his cost
whenever he and his uncle chanced to be together.

Steenie Steers thought himself a very fine fellow indeed; in

this, as in many other things, he had formed a very
different opinion from that of Farmer Macalpine. Though
Steenie was not yet quite twelve years of age, he already
put on all the airs of a grown-up fop. Macalpine had found
the boy lolling in the only easy-chair in the room of his
aunt, Miss Steers, with his silver-tipped cane in his hand;
and Steenie had hardly risen to welcome his uncle, though
he had not met him for more than a week.

"I've come to see your Aunt Elizabeth, Steenie; is she at

home?" asked Macalpine.

"Aunt Bess—why, no; she's out somewhere," answered the

nephew. "I dare say that she's trotted over to the doctor's,"
he added, in a tone of utter indifference.

"Is her head better? How did she sleep last night?" inquired
the farmer.

"How can I tell? I've just come in from a stroll in the

woods," replied Steenie.

"I suppose that you did not go on your stroll without your
breakfast; you must have seen your aunt then," said
Macalpine, in his rather snappish manner.

"I wasn't down to breakfast till old Aunt Bess had done
hers, and gone out," answered Steenie. "I was up late last
night at the Burnsides," added the boy, with a yawn.