Share Full (Probability) Tests and Solutions (1 - 11)

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 1
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
𝑨𝒏𝒔𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔.
[If a numerical answer cannot be given exactly, and the accuracy
required is not specified in the question, then in the case of an angle
it should be given correct to the nearest degree, and in other cases it
should be given to 2 significant figures.]
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Sharewell B. C
1. A bag contains 10 red, 15 blue, 5 green and 10 yellow balls. A ball is picked at
random from the bag. Find the probability that
i) it is blue,
ii) it is neither green nor yellow,
iii) it is not yellow,
iv) it is purple,
v) it is write. [12]
2. Shares tossed 16 coins together. The number of tails obtained from tossing the coins
was counted.
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The of tails: 9, 7, 8, 6, 10, 7, 5, 5, 8, 9
a) Use Shares data to calculate the probability of obtaining a tail. [4]
b) The experiment was continued until the 16 coins were each tossed 100 times.
Calculate the total number of tails that Shares would expect to obtain. [3]
3. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing card.
a) Find the probability that the card drawn is
i) the four of spades,
ii) the four of spades or any diamond,
iii) not a picture card (Jack or Queen or King) of any suit. [9]
b) The card drawn is the three of diamonds. It is placed on the table and a second
card is drawn. What is the probability that the card drawn is not a diamond? [6]
4. The table summarizes the results of all the driving tests taken at a Test Centre
during the first week of September.
Male female
Pass 32 43
Fail 8 15
A person is chosen at random from those who took their test that week.
a) Find the probability that the person
i) passed the driving test,
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ii) was a female who failed her driving test. [6]
b) A male is chosen. What is the probability that he did not pass the test? [5]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 2
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. Two ordinary unbiased dice are thrown. Find the probability that
a) the sum of the two dice is 3,
b) the sum of the two dice exceeds 9,
c) the two dice show the same number,
d) the numbers on the two dice differ by more than 2. [10]
2. Two fair cubical dice are thrown simultaneously and the scores multiplied. 𝑃(𝑛)denotes the
probability that the number 𝑛 will be obtained.
a) Calculate
i) 𝑃(9)
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ii) 𝑃(4)
iii) 𝑃(14).
1
b) If 𝑃(𝑡) = 9, find the possible values of 𝑡. [12]
2 3 5
3. For events 𝐴 and 𝐵 it is known that 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
3 4 12
Find 𝑃(𝐵). [4]
4. Tests are carried out on three machines A, B and C to assess the likelihood that each
machine will produce a faulty component. The results are summarized in the table.
Fault not Fault
Machine A 3 12
Machine B 2 8
Machine C 5 15
A component is chosen at random from those tested.
a) Find the probability that the chosen
i) is from machine A,
ii) is a faulty component from machine C,
iii) is not faulty or is from machine A, [9]
b) It is known that the component chosen is faulty. Find the probability that it is from
machine B. [3]
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5. Define the term probability. [2]
6. Differentiate between a mutually exclusive event and an independent event. [4]
7. Give one condition of an exhaustive event. [1]

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Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 3
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
8 2 1
1. 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 15 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 5. Are 𝐴 and
𝐵exhaustive events? [4]
2. In a large group of people it is known that 10% have hot breakfast, 20% have a hot
lunch and 25% have a hot breakfast or a hot lunch. Find the probability that a
person chosen at random from this group
a) has a hot breakfast and a hot lunch, [3]
b) has a hot lunch, given that the person chosen had a hot breakfast. [4]
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2 1 1
3. if 𝑃( 𝐴 ∣ 𝐵 ) = 5 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 4 , 𝑃(𝐴) = 3, find
a) 𝑃( 𝐵 ∣ 𝐴 ) [4]
b) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) [3]
4. A group of 100 people, 40 own a cat, 25 own a dog and 15 own a cat and a dog. Find
the probability that a person chosen at random
a) owns a dog or a cat, [3]
b) owns a dog or a cat, but not both, [4]
c) owns a dog, given that he owns a cat, [3]
d) does not a cat, given that he owns a dog. [4]
5. The probability that the school bus is on time on any particular day is 0.6. If the bus
is on time the probability that Sam the driver gets a cup of coffee is 0.9. If the bus is
not on time the probability that Sam gets a cup of coffee is 0.3.
i) Find the probability that Sam gets a cup of coffee. [3]
ii) Given that Sam does not get a cup of coffee, find the probability that that the
bus is not on time. [4]
6. Ayman’s breakfast drink is tea, coffee or hot chocolate with probabilities 0.65, 0.28,
0.07 respectively. When he drinks tea, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.8.
When he drinks coffee, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.5. When he drinks
hot chocolate he always has milk in it.
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i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
ii) Find the probability that Ayman’s breakfast drink is coffee, given that his
drink has milk in it. [4]

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 4
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. In a group of 12 international referees there are three from Africa, four from Asia
and five from Europe. To officiate at a tournament, three referees are chosen at
random from the group. Calculate the probability that
a) a referee is chosen from each continent, [3]

b) exactly two referees are chosen from Asia, [3]
c) the three referees are chosen from the same continent. [4]
2. In a simple model of the weather in October, each day is classified as either fine or
rainy. The probability that a fine day is followed by a fine day is 0.8. The probability
that a rainy day is followed by a fine day is 0.4. The probability that that 1October is
fine is 0.75.
a) Find the probability that 2 October is fine and the probability that 3 October is
fine. [3]
b) Find the conditional probability that 3 October is rainy given that 1 October is
fine. [4]
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c) Find the conditional probability that 1 October is fine, given that 3 October is
rainy. [4]
3. A sailing completion between two boats, A and B, consist of a series of independent

races, the competition being won by the first boat to win three races. Every race is
won by either A or B, and their respective probabilities of winning are influenced by
the weather. In rough weather the probability that A will win is 0.9; in fine weather
the probability that A will win is 0.4. For each race the weather is either rough or
fine, the probability of rough weather being 0.2. Show that the probability that A will
win the first race is 0.5. [3]
Given that the first race was won by A, determine the conditional probability that
the weather for the first race was rough, [3]
4. In a computer game played by a single player, the player has to find, within a fixed
time, the path through a maze shown on the computer screen. On the first occasion
that a particular player plays the game, the computer shows a simple maze, and the
probability that the player succeeds in finding the path in the time allowed is 0.75.
On subsequent occasions, the maze shown depends on the previous game. If the
player succeeded on the previous occasion, the next maze is harder, and the
probability that the player succeeds is one half of the probability of success on the
previous occasion. If the player failed on the previous occasion, a simple maze is
shown and the probability of the player succeeding is again 0.75.
The player plays three games.
27
a) Show that the probability that the player succeeds in all three games is 512. [4]
b) Find the probability that the player succeeds in exactly one of the games. [3]
c) Find the probability that the player does not have two consecutive successes. [3]
d) Find the conditional probability that the player has two consecutive success
given that the player has exactly two successes. [4]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 5
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. In an experiment two bags A and B, containing red and green marble are used. Bag A
contains four red marbles and one green marble and bag B contains two red
marbles and seven green marbles. An unbiased coin is tossed. If a head turns up, a
marble is drawn at random from bag A while if a tail turns up, a marble is drawn at
random from bag B. Calculate the probability that a red marble is drawn in a single
trail. [4]
Given that a red marble is selected, calculate the probability that when the coin was
tossed a head was obtained. [4]
2. Of a group of pupils studying at A-level in schools in a certain area, 56% are boys
1
and 44% are girls. The probability that a boy of this group is studying Chemistry is 5
1
and the probability that a girl of this group is studying Chemistry is 11.
a) Find the probability that a pupil selected at random from this group is a girl
studying Chemistry. [3]
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b) Find the probability that a pupil selected at random from this group is not
c) Find the probability that a Chemistry pupil selected at random from this group is
male. [4]
3. In each round of a certain game a player can score 1, 2, or 3 only. Copy and complete
the table which shows the scores and two of the respective probabilities of these
being scored in a single round.
Score 1 2 3
4 1
Probability 7 7
Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible total scores and their respective
probabilities after a player has completed two rounds.
Find the probability that a player has
a) a score of 4 after two rounds, [3]

b) an odd number score after two rounds. [4]
4. For a certain strain of flower, the probability that, when sown, a seed produces a
1
plant with yellow flowers is 6. Find the minimum number of seeds that should be
sown in order that the probability of obtaining at least one plant with yellow flowers
is greater than 0.98. [5]
5. A coin is biased so that the probability that it falls showing tails is 0.75.
a) Find the probability of obtaining at least one head when the coin is tossed five
times. [3]
b) How many times must the coin be tossed so that the probability of obtaining at
least one head is greater than 0.98? [4]
6. A missile is fired at a target and the probability that the target is hit is 0.7.
a) Find how many missiles should be fired so that the target is hit at least once is
greater than 0.995. [4]
b) Find how many missiles should be fired so that the probability that the target is
not hit is less than 0.001. [4]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 6
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. A die is biased so that the probability of obtaining a three is 𝑝. When the die is
thrown four times the probability that there is at least one three is 0.9375. Find the
value of 𝑝. [5]
How many times the die should be thrown so that the probability that there are no
threes is less than 0.03. [5]
2. Two people A and B, play a game. An ordinary die is thrown and the first person to
throw a four wins. A and B take it in turns to throw the die, starting with A. Find the
probability that B wins. [6]
3. A box contains five black balls and one white ball. Alan and Bill take turn to draw a
ball from the box, starting with Alan. The first boy to draw the white ball wins the
game.
Assuming that they do not replace the balls as they draw them out, find the
probability that Bill wins the game. [4]
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If the game is changed, so that, in the new game, they replace each ball after it has
been drawn out, find the probabilities that:
a) Alan wins at his first attempt; [3]

b) Alan wins at his second attempt; [3]
c) Alan wins at his third attempt. [3]
Show that these answers are terms in Geometric Progression. Hence find the
probability that Alan wins the new game. [3]
4. A die is thrown three times. What is the probability of scoring a two on just one
occasion? [3]
5. A coin is tossed four times. Find the probability of obtaining less than two heads. [4]

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 7
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. A school selects 55% of its lower sixth pupils from its own O level pupils and the
remainder comes from other schools. It is established that 90% of accepted A-level
students who did their O-level outside the school pass their A-level studies, and that
70% of those who did their O-level studies at the school pass their A-level studies. A
pupil is selected at random from the recent A-level graduate of the school.
a) Find the probability that the pupil,

i) passes A-level studies, [5]
ii) did O-level outside the school, given that the pupil passes A-level
studies… [3]
2. Three tickets for a musical show are sent to a high school musical club. Fifteen girls
and ten boys would like a ticket. If the three people to receive a ticket are chosen at
random, find the probability that they will be
i) exactly 2 boys, [4]

ii) at least 2 girls. [4]
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3. The meteorological department of a certain country adopts a simple model the
weather in which each day is classified as either fine or rainy. The probability that a
fine day is followed by another fine day is 0.8. The probability that a rainy day is
followed by a fine day is 0.4. The probability that 1 February is fine is 0.75. Using a
tree diagram or otherwise , find the probability that
a) the 3rd February is fine, [4]

b) the 1st February was rainy given that 3rd February is fine. [4]
4. Two tetrahedral dice with faces marked 0, 1, 2, and 3, are thrown and the number
on which each lands on is noted. The score is the sum of the 2 numbers. By means of
an outcome table or otherwise, find the probability that
i) the score is a prime number, [4]

ii) one die lands on a 3 given that the score is a prime number. [3]
5. a) If E1 and E2 are any two events, explain what is meant by
i) E1 and E2 are independent, [1]

ii) E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive. [1]
c) In the who, what or where game, three contestants each chooses one of the
three categories of a question. Assuming that the contestants chooses
independently and that they are equally likely to select any of the categories, find
the probability that
i) all will choose different categories, [3]
ii) two will be alike and the third different. [4]
6. Three flower vendors X, Y and Z have equal chances of selling their flowers. X has 80
red and 20 white flowers, Y has 30 red and 40 white flowers and Z has 10 red and
60 white flowers. On Valentine’s Day, Kudzai wants to buy a flower.
(a) Find the probability that she picks a red flower. [3]
(b) Given that she bought a red flower, find the probability that it came from Y. [3]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 8
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. A box contains three fuses, one good and two defective. Two fuses are drawn in
sequence without replacement. Calculate the probability that
a) the second fuse drawn is defective, [4]

b) the second fuse drawn is defective if the first is defective. [4]
2. A building society gives both adjustable-rate mortgage and fixed-rate mortgages on

residential property. It breaks residential property into three categories: low
density houses, high density houses and blocks of flats. The following table give
probabilities appropriate to this situation.
Low density high density blocks of flats
Adjustable rate 0.285 0.240 0.100
Fixed rate 0.115 0.200 0.600
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Find the probability that
i) the building society gives a mortgage for a low density property, [2]
ii) the building society gives a mortgage for a low density property to each of the
four people who are first to apply, [3]
iii) a mortgage is adjustable-rate given that it is for low density property. [3]
3. A fair die is tossed three times. Find the probability that
i) exactly one six is obtained, [3]

ii) the first score is even, the second is odd and the third is either a one or a
two. [4]
4. During the 2010 World Cup in a certain city, the probability that there was
1
electricity on any particular day was 3 . In the case that there was no electricity, a
generator would be switched on. Independently, the probability that john watched a
1
soccer match being screened live was 4 .
a) Represent the information by means of a tree diagram. [2]

b) Given that John watched a soccer match, find the probability that there was no
electricity. [4]
5. A bag contains 24 counters of which 6 are red, 8 are green and 10 are yellow. Three
counters are taken from the bag at random without replacement.
56
i) Show that the probability that 2 of the counters taken are green is 253. [2]
ii) Given that 2 of the counters are green, find the probability that the first
counter taken is red. [3]
6. Bag A contains 3 red balls and 2 white balls. Bag B contains 2 red balls and 3 white
balls. A bag is selected at random and the two balls are drawn from it, one after the
other without replacement.
a) Find the probability that the two balls drawn are red. [3]
b) Given that the two balls are red, find the probability that they are from bag A. [4]
7. A student prepares for an examination by studying a list of 10 questions. The

student can solve 6 of them. For the examination, the teacher selects 5 questions at
random from the list of 10 questions. Find the probability that the student can solve
all the 5 questions in the examination. [4]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 9
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. A and B play against each other in a game. Each result is either a win for A or a win
for B. The probability of A winning the first game is 0.6. If A wins a particular game,
the probability of winning the next game is 0.7. If A loses a particular game, the
probability of winning the next game is 0.4. Find the probability that
i) A loses the second game, [2]

ii) A wins the first game, given that A loses the second game. [3]
2. The head of a school wishes to contact parents of learners. She could use e-mail,
letter or cell phone with probabilities 0.4, 0.1 and 0.5 respectively. She uses only one
of the methods. The probabilities of parents receiving the messages if the head uses
e-mail, letter or cell phone are 0.6, 0.8 and 1 respectively.
a) Find the probability that the parents receive the message. [2]
b) Given that the parents receives the message, find the probability that they
received it via e-mail. [3]
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3. a) Julius Caesar is one of the novels in a collection of 20 novels. A learner is going to
choose 5 of these novels to take for the holiday. Find the
i) number of ways the learner can choose the 5 books, [3]

ii) number of choices that will include Julius Caesar. [3]
b) Find the number of ways 3 boys and 4 girls can stand in a line if:
i) there are no restrictions, [2]

ii) the boys stand next to each other. [3]
4. a) State the difference between a permutation and a combination. [3]
b) Two fuses are selected simultaneously and at random from a packet containing 5
good and 3 faulty fuses. Find the number of ways of selecting
i) the 2 fuses from the packet, [3]

ii) one good and one faulty from the packet. [3]
iii) Hence or otherwise find the probability that exactly one faulty fuse is
selected. [3]
5. Wherever there is a power cut, a school is equally likely to switch on one of its 3
generators A, B or C. On any given day, the independent probabilities of a
breakdown are, 0.2 for A, 0.3 for B and 0.25 for C.
a) Show the above information by a means of a tree diagram. [2]

b) For a randomly chosen day, when there was a power cut, find the probability
i) there was a generator breakdown, [2]
ii) given that there was a generator break down, then it was generator C. [3]
2
6. Two fifths ( ) of the teaching staff of a college are female. The probability that a
5
female staff is absent on any Tuesday is 0.32 and that of a male staff is 0.08. Find the
probability that on a particular Tuesday,
a) member of the teaching staff is absent, [2]

b) female is absent , given that one member of the teaching staff is absent. [3]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 10
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. Four letters are chosen at random the word DARLING. Find the probability that
a) exactly 2 consonants are chosen, [2]

b) at least 3 consonants are chosen. [4]
2. In a group of 40 students all of whom are studying Statistics or Pure Mathematics or

both, 20 are studying Statistics and 30 are studying Pure Mathematics.
a) Illustrate the information on a Venn diagram. [2]

b) Find the probability that a student chosen at random is
i) studying Statistics and Pure Mathematics, [3]
ii) studying Pure Mathematics but not Statistics. [3]
3. a) Find how many code numbers of three digits that can be made from using the
digits 1; 2; 3; 4 and 5, if the order of the digits is important and repetition is
i) permitted, [3]
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ii) not permitted. [3]
b). At a certain school the probability that a learner passes Advanced Level is 0.8
and the probability that the learner proceeds to Tertiary Education is 0.9. The
corresponding probability that a learner who fails Advanced Level does not
proceed to Tertiary Education is 0.4.
i) Find the probability that a learner proceeds to Tertiary Education. [3]
ii) Given that the learner proceeds to Tertiary Education calculate the
probability that the leaner fails Advanced Level. [4]
throw a four wins. A and B take it in turns to throw the die, starting with A. find the
6
5. The probability that for a married couple the husband has a degree is 10 and the
1
probability that the wife has a degree is 2 . The probability that the husband has a
11
degree, given that the wife has a degree, is 12.
A married couple is chosen at random.
a) both of them have degrees, [3]

b) only one of them has a degree, [3]
c) neither of them has a degree. [3]
Two married couples are chosen at random.
d) Find the probability that only one of the two husbands and only one of the two
wives have a degree. [5]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 11
TIME: 1 hour
45 marks
Sharewell B. C
1. A personal stereo system consist of a playing unit and a headphone unit. Each unit is
tested for faults. If a unit is found to be faulty, an attempt is made to correct the
faulty and the unit is then retested. Any unit that is found to be faulty a second time
is rejected.
a) The probability of a randomly chosen playing unit being found to be faulty on

the first test is 0.1. If the second test is needed, the probability of a playing unit
being found to be faulty on the second test is 0.05.
i) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen playing unit is

rejected. [4]
ii) Given that a playing unit is accepted, calculate the probability that a fault
was found on the first test. Give your answer correct to three significant
figures. [5]
b) The probability of a randomly chosen headphone unit being found to be faulty

on the first test is 0.04. If a second test is needed, the probability of a headphone
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unit being found to be faulty on the second test is 0.02. Calculate the probability
that a randomly chosen headphone unit is accepted. Give your answer correct to
three significant figures. [5]
c) A randomly chosen playing unit that has been accepted and a randomly chosen
headphone unit that has been accepted are combined to make a personal stereo
system. Calculate the probability that at least one of the two units has been
retested. Give your answers correct to three significant figures. [7]
2. A bag contains four red counters, three blue counters and three green counters. A
counter is drawn at random from the bag and not replaced. A second counter is then
drawn at random from the bag.
Assuming that at each stage each counter left in the bag has an equal chance of being
drawn,
a) find the probability, giving your answer as a fraction in their lowest terms, that
the second counter will be blue given that
i) the first counter is red, [4]

ii) the first counter id blue, [4]
iii) the first counter is green. [4]
b) Find the probability, giving your answer as a fraction in its lowest terms, that the
first counter will be red and the second counter will be blue. [5]
c) Find the probability, giving your answer as a faction in is lowest terms, that the
second counter will be blue regardless of the color of the first counter. [5]
3. Newton babies are routinely screened for a serious disease which affects only two
per 1000 babies. The result of screening can be positive or negative. A positive
result suggest the baby has the disease, but the test is not perfect. If a baby has the
disease, the probability that the result is negative is 0.01. If the baby doe not have
the disease, the probability that the result will be positive is 0.02.
Find the probability that a baby has the disease, given that the result of the test is
positive. [7]
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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SOLUTIONS
TO
PROBABILITY
TESTS (1 - 11)
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILTY TEST 1
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. A bag contains 10 red, 15 blue, 5 green and 10 yellow balls. A ball is picked at
random from the bag. Find the probability that
i) it is blue,
ii) it is neither green nor yellow,
iii) it is not yellow,
iv) it is purple, [12]
SOLUTION
i) Let 𝑛(𝑆) be the total number of balls in the bag
Let 𝑛(𝑅) represent the event space for red balls
Let 𝑛(𝐵) represent the event space for blue balls
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Let 𝑛(𝐺) represent the event space for green balls
Let 𝑛(𝑌) represent the event space for yellow balls
𝑛(𝐵)
Now, 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑛(𝑆)
15
=40
3
=8
5 10
ii) 𝑃(𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = 1 − { + }
40 40
5
=
8
iii) 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤)
10
=1−
40
3
=
4
iv) 𝑃(𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑒) = 0 𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
2. Shares tossed 16 coins together. The number of tails obtained from tossing the coins
was counted.
The of tails: 9, 7, 8, 6, 10, 7, 5, 5, 8, 9
a) Use Shares data to calculate the probability of obtaining a tail. [4]
b) The experiment was continued until the 16 coins were each tossed 100 times.
Calculate the total number of tails that Shares would expect to obtain. [3]
SOLUTION
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𝐴𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
a) 𝑃(𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙) = 𝐴𝑙𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑠
9+7+8+6+10+7+5+5+8+9
= 16×10
37
= 80
= 0.4625
b) Now, 0.4625 × (16 × 100) = 740
3. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing card.
a) Find the probability that the card drawn is
iv) the four of spades,
v) the four of spades or any diamond,
vi) not a picture card (Jack or Queen or King) of any suit. [9]
b) The card drawn is the three of diamonds. It is placed on the table and a second
card is drawn. What is the probability that the card drawn is not a diamond? [6]
SOLUTION
NOTES ON PLAYING CARDS
a)
 A complete pack consists 52 of playing cards, which are spread over 4
designs namely; diamonds, hearts, spreads and clubs.
 Diamonds and hearts are red cards, whilst spreads and clubs are black
cards that is 26 are red and 26 are black. Also it implies that 13 are
spreads, 13 are clubs, 13 hearts and 13 are diamonds.
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 A complete set of playing cards consists of 13 different types of cards that
are; 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J(Jack), Q(Queen), K(King), A(Acc).
 Each of the cards above comes from 4 designs drawn above (Acc of
diamonds, Acc of spreads, Acc of Clubs, Acc of hearts=same with others).

1
i) Now, 𝑃(𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 52
1 13
ii) 𝑃(𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑) = 54 + 52
7
=
26
iii) 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = {𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘, 𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝐴𝑐𝑐, 𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑠𝑢𝑖𝑡}) =
4×4
1− 52
10
= 13
1
b) 3 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 = 52 , 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑙𝑒𝑓𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 51 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 12 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠,
12
𝑠𝑜 𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑) = 1 − 51
13
= 17
4. The table summarizes the results of all the driving tests taken at a Test Centre
during the first week of September.
Male female
Pass 32 43
Fail 8 15
A person is chosen at random from those who took their test that week.
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a) Find the probability that the person
iii) passed the driving test,
iv) was a female who failed her driving test. [6]
b) A male is chosen. What is the probability that he did not pass the test? [5]
SOLUTION
a)
Male female TOTAL
Pass 32 43 75
Fail 8 15 23
TOTAL 40 58 98(GRAND TOTAL)
32+43
i) 𝑃(𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡) = 98
75
=
98
15
ii) 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑 ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡) = 98
8/98
b) 𝑃(𝑑𝑖𝑑 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 40/98
1
=5
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AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 2
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. Two ordinary unbiased dice are thrown. Find the probability that
a) the sum of the two dice is 3,
b) the sum of the two dice exceeds 9,

c) the two dice show the same number,
d) the numbers on the two dice differ by more than 2. [10]
SOLUTION
67 8 9 10 11 12
56 7 8 9 10 11
45 6 7 8 9 10
34 5 6 7 8 9
23 4 5 6 7 8
12 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
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1
a) 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑠 3) = 26
1
b) 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑠 9) = 6
1
c) 𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = 6
1
d) 𝑃(𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑏𝑦 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑡𝑤𝑜) = 3
2. Two fair cubical dice are thrown simultaneously and the scores multiplied. 𝑃(𝑛)denotes the
probability that the number 𝑛 will be obtained.
a) Calculate
i) 𝑃(9)
ii) 𝑃(4)
iii) 𝑃(14).
1
b) If 𝑃(𝑡) = 9, find the possible values of 𝑡. [12]
SOLUTION
6 6 12 18 24 30 36
5 5 10 15 20 25 30
4 4 8 12 16 20 24
3 3 6 9 12 15 18
2 2 4 6 8 10 12
11 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
1
i) 𝑃(9) = 36
1
ii) 𝑃(4) = 12
iii) 𝑃(14) = 0
c) 𝑡 = 6 𝑜𝑟 12
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2 3 5
3. For events 𝐴 and 𝐵 it is known that 𝑃(𝐴) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 4 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 12
Find 𝑃(𝐵). [4]
SOLUTION
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
3 2 5
= + 𝑃(𝐵) −
4 3 12
3 2 5
∴ 𝑃(𝐵) = − +
4 3 12
1
𝑃(𝐵) =
2
4. Tests are carried out on three machines A, B and C to assess the likelihood that each
machine will produce a faulty component. The results are summarized in the table.
faulty not faulty
Machine A 3 12
Machine B 2 8
Machine C 5 15
A component is chosen at random from those tested.
a) Find the probability that the chosen
i) is from machine A,
ii) is a faulty component from machine C,
iii) is not faulty or is from machine A, [9]
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b) It is known that the component chosen is faulty. Find the probability that it is from
machine B. [3]
SOLUTION
a)
faulty not faulty total
Machine A 3 12 15
Machine B 2 8 10
Machine C 5 15 20
Total 10 35 45
15
i) 𝑃(𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝐴) = 45
1
=3
5
ii) 𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝐶) = 45
1
=9
3+12+8+15
iii) 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑒 𝐴) = 45
38
= 45
2
b) 𝑃(𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑦) = 10
5. Define the term probability. [2]
SOLUTION
The likelihood of an event happening or not happening.
6. Differentiate between a mutually exclusive event and an independent event. [4]
SOLUTION
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An event is said to be mutually exclusive when its occurrence is affected by another
event, whereas an event is said to be independent when its occurrence does not
affect another event.
7. Give one condition of an exhaustive event. [1]
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′) = 0

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 3
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
8 2 1
1. 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 15 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 5. Are 𝐴 and
𝐵exhaustive events? [4]
SOLUTION
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

8 2 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 15 + 3 − 5
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝟏 ∴ 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒆𝒙𝒉𝒂𝒖𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 45

2. In a large group of people it is known that 10% have hot breakfast, 20% have a hot
lunch and 25% have a hot breakfast or a hot lunch. Find the probability that a
person chosen at random from this group
a) has a hot breakfast and a hot lunch, [3]
b) has a hot lunch, given that the person chosen had a hot breakfast. [4]
SOLUTION
a) Defining variables
𝑃(𝐵) = 0.1
𝑃(𝐿) = 0.20
𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐿) = 0.25
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐿) = 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐿) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐿)
Now, 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐿) = 0.1 + 0.20 − 0.25
∴ 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐿) = 0.05
𝑃(𝐿∩𝐵)
b) 𝑃(𝐿 ∣ 𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
0.05
=
0.1
𝟏
=
𝟐
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2 1 1
3. If 𝑃( 𝐴 ∣ 𝐵 ) = 5 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 4 , 𝑃(𝐴) = 3, find
a) 𝑃( 𝐵 ∣ 𝐴 ) [4]
b) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) [3]
SOLUTION
a) 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃( 𝐵 ∣ 𝐴 ) × 𝑃(𝐴)
2 1 1
× = 𝑃(𝐵 ∣ 𝐴) ×
5 4 3
𝟑
∴ 𝑷(𝑩 ∣ 𝑨) =
𝟏𝟎
b) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵 ∣ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃( 𝐵 ∣ 𝐴 ) × 𝑃(𝐴)
3 1
𝑃(𝐵 ∣ 𝐴) = 10 × 3
𝟏
= 𝟏𝟎
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4. A group of 100 people, 40 own a cat, 25 own a dog and 15 own a cat and a dog. Find
the probability that a person chosen at random
a) owns a dog or a cat, [3]
b) owns a dog or a cat, but not both, [4]
c) owns a dog, given that he owns a cat, [3]
d) does not a cat, given that he owns a dog. [4]
SOLUTION
a) Defining variables
𝑃(𝐶) = 0.4
𝑃(𝐷) = 0.25
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 0.15
Now, 𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐷) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐶)
𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐶) = 0.25 + 0.4 − 0.15

1
𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐶) = 2
b) 𝑃(𝐷 𝑜𝑟 𝐶 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ) = 𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐶)
= 0.5 − 0.15
= 𝟎.35
𝑃(𝐷∩𝐶)
c) 𝑃(𝐷 ∣ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐶)
0.15
=
0.4
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3
=
8
𝑃(𝐶′∩𝐷)
𝑃(𝐶 ′ ∣ 𝐷) =
𝑃(𝐷)
𝟒
=
𝟏𝟎
5. The probability that the school bus is on time on any particular day is 0.6. If the bus
is on time the probability that Sam the driver gets a cup of coffee is 0.9. If the bus is
not on time the probability that Sam gets a cup of coffee is 0.3.
i) Find the probability that Sam gets a cup of coffee. [3]
ii) Given that Sam does not get a cup of coffee, find the probability that that the
bus is not on time. [4]
SOLUTION
a) Defining variables C
0.9
0.6 T
0.1 C'
C
0.3
0.4 T'
0.7
C'
i) 𝑃(𝐶) = (0.6 × 0.9) + (0.4 × 0.3)
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 49

33
=
50
33
ii) 𝑃(𝐷𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑎 𝑐𝑢𝑝 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑒) = 1 −
50
= 0.34
𝑃(𝑇′∩𝐶′)
𝑆𝑜, 𝑃(𝑇′ ∣ 𝐶′) =
𝑃(𝐶)
0.4×0.7
=
0.34
𝟏𝟒
=
𝟏𝟕
6. Ayman’s breakfast drink is tea, coffee or hot chocolate with probabilities 0.65, 0.28,
0.07 respectively. When he drinks tea, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.8.
When he drinks coffee, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.5. When he drinks
hot chocolate he always has milk in it.
i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
ii) Find the probability that Ayman’s breakfast drink is coffee, given that his
drink has milk in it. [4]
SOLUTION
i)
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 50

M
0.8
T
0.65 0.2 M'
0.5 M
0.28 C
M'
0.5
1 M
0.07 H
0 M'
ii) 𝑃{𝑀(𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑘)} = (0.65 × 0.8) + (0.28 × 0.5) + (0.07 × 1)
𝟕𝟑
=
𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝑃(𝐶∩𝑀)
𝑁𝑜𝑤, 𝑃(𝐶 ∣ 𝑀) = 𝑃(𝑀)
0.28×0.5
= 0.73
𝟏𝟒
= 𝟕𝟑
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 51

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 52

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 4
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. In a group of 12 international referees there are three from Africa, four from Asia
and five from Europe. To officiate at a tournament, three referees are chosen at
random from the group. Calculate the probability that
a) a referee is chosen from each continent, [3]

b) exactly two referees are chosen from Asia, [3]
c) the three referees are chosen from the same continent. [4]
SOLUTION
a) 𝑛(𝑆) ∗ 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 3 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 = 123𝐶 = 220

𝑛(𝐸) ∗ 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 31𝐶 × 41𝐶 × 51𝐶 = 60
60
𝑃(𝐸) = 220
𝟑
= 𝟏𝟏
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 53

b) 𝑛(𝑆) = 220
𝑛(𝐸) ∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐴𝑠𝑖𝑎 = ( 42𝐶 × 81𝐶 ) = 48
48
𝑃(𝐸) = 220
𝟏𝟐
= 𝟓𝟓
c) 𝑛(𝑆) = 220
𝑛(𝐸) ∗ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 =
( 33𝐶 + 43𝐶 + 53𝐶 ) = 15
15
𝑃(𝐸) = 220
𝟑
= 𝟒𝟒
2. In a simple model of the weather in October, each day is classified as either fine or
rainy. The probability that a fine day is followed by a fine day is 0.8. The probability
that a rainy day is followed by a fine day is 0.4. The probability that that 1October is
fine is 0.75.
a) Find the probability that 2 October is fine and the probability that 3 October is
fine. [3]
b) Find the conditional probability that 3 October is rainy given that 1 October is
fine. [4]
c) Find the conditional probability that 1 October is fine, given that 3 October is
rainy. [4]
SOLUTION 3 OCT
0.8 F
a)
2 OCT
F
0.8 0.2 F
1 OCT
0.4 F
0.75 F
0.2 F 0.6 F
0.8 F
F
0.4
0.2 F
0.4 F
0.25 F
0.6 F
0.6 F
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 54

𝑃(𝐹𝐹 + 𝐹̅ 𝐹) ∗ 2 𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑒 = (0.75 × 0.8) + (0.25 × 0.4) = 0.7
𝑁𝑜𝑤, 𝑃( 3 𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑒) = (0.75 × 0.8 × 0.8) + (0.75 × 0.2 × 0.4) +

(0.25 × 0.4 × 0.8) + (0.25 × 0.6 × 0.4) = 0.68
14
= 25
= 𝟎. 𝟓𝟔
̅
𝑃((𝐹∩𝐹∩𝐹 )+𝑃(𝐹∩𝐹 ∩𝐹 ) ̅ ̅
b) 𝑃(3𝐹̅ ∣ 1𝐹) =
𝑃(1 𝑂𝐶𝑇 (𝐹))
0.21
=
0.75
7
= ≈ 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖
25
c) 𝑃(3 𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑦) = 1 − 0.68

= 0.32
𝑃(𝐹∩𝐹∩𝐹̅ )+𝑃(𝐹∩𝐹̅ ∩𝐹̅ )
𝑃(1𝐹 ∣ 3𝐹̅ ) =
𝑃(𝐹𝐹𝐹̅ +𝐹𝐹̅ 𝐹̅ +𝐹̅ 𝐹𝐹̅ +𝐹̅ 𝐹̅ 𝐹̅ )
(0.75×0.8×0.2)+(0.75×0.2×0.6)
=
1−0.68
0.21
=
0.32
21
=
32
= 0.65625
≈ 𝟎. 𝟔𝟔 (𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
3. A sailing completion between two boats, A and B, consist of a series of independent

races, the competition being won by the first boat to win three races. Every race is
won by either A or B, and their respective probabilities of winning are influenced by
the weather. In rough weather the probability that A will win is 0.9; in fine weather
the probability that A will win is 0.4. For each race the weather is either rough or
fine, the probability of rough weather being 0.2. Show that the probability that A will
win the first race is 0.5. [3]
Given that the first race was won by A, determine the conditional probability that
the weather for the first race was rough, [3]
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 55

SOLUTION
𝑃(𝐴 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑤𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑒) = (0.2 × 0.9) + (0.8 × 0.4)
0.9 W 𝟏
= 𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓 (𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐧)
𝑃(𝑅∩𝑊)
𝑃( 𝑅 ∣ 𝑊𝐴 ) = 𝑃(𝑅𝑊+𝑅̅𝑊)
0.2 R (0.2×0.9)
0.1 𝑊 = 0.5
9
0.4 W = 25
= 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔
𝑅̅
0.8
0.6 𝑊
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 56

4. In a computer game played by a single player, the player has to find, within a fixed
time, the path through a maze shown on the computer screen. On the first occasion
that a particular player plays the game, the computer shows a simple maze, and the
probability that the player succeeds in finding the path in the time allowed is 0.75.
On subsequent occasions, the maze shown depends on the previous game. If the
player succeeded on the previous occasion, the next maze is harder, and the
probability that the player succeeds is one half of the probability of success on the
previous occasion. If the player failed on the previous occasion, a simple maze is
shown and the probability of the player succeeding is again 0.75.
The player plays three games.
27
a) Show that the probability that the player succeeds in all three games is 512. [4]
b) Find the probability that the player succeeds in exactly one of the games. [3]
c) Find the probability that the player does not have two consecutive successes. [3]
d) Find the conditional probability that the player has two consecutive success
given that the player has exactly two successes. [4]
SOLUTION
1𝑠𝑡 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒 2𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒 3𝑟𝑑 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒
S
0.1875
0.8125 𝑆
0.375 S
0.75 S
0.75 S 0.25 𝑆
0.625 𝑆 0.375 S
0.75 S
0.625 𝑆
0.25 𝑆 0.75 S
0.25 𝑆
0.25 𝑆
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 57

a) 𝑃(𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠 ) = 𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)
= (0.75 × 0.375 × 0.1875)
𝟐𝟕
= 𝟓𝟏𝟐 (𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒘𝒏)
b) 𝑃(𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆) + 𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆) +

𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)
= {(0.75 × 0.625 × 0.25) + (0.25 × 0.75 × 0.625) + (0.25 × 0.25 × 0.75)}
9
= 32
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖(𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
c) 𝑃(𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)

= 1 − (0.75 × 0.625 × 0.75)
83
= 128
= 𝟎. 𝟔𝟒 (𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
d) 𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑟 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠)
𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)+𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)
𝑃( 2𝑆 ∣ 2𝑆 ) =
𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)+𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)+𝑃(𝑆𝑆𝑆)
(0.75×0.375×0.1875)+(0.25×0.75×0.375)
= (0.75×0.375×0.1875)+(0.75×0.625×0.75)+(0.25×0.75×0.375)
𝟏𝟕
=
𝟑𝟕
= 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔(𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 58

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 59

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 5
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. In an experiment two bags A and B, containing red and green marble are used. Bag A
contains four red marbles and one green marble and bag B contains two red
marbles and seven green marbles. An unbiased coin is tossed. If a head turns up, a
marble is drawn at random from bag A while if a tail turns up, a marble is drawn at
random from bag B. Calculate the probability that a red marble is drawn in a single
trail. [4]
Given that a red marble is selected, calculate the probability that when the coin was
tossed a head was obtained. [4]
SOLUTION
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 60

𝑃( 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑙)
= 𝑃(𝐻𝐴 𝑅) + 𝑃(𝑇𝐵 𝑅)
1 4 1 2
= (2 × 5) × (2 × 9)
23
= 45
= 𝟎. 𝟓𝟏(𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
𝑃(𝐻𝐴 ∩𝑅)
𝑃( 𝐻𝐴 ∣ 𝑅 ) = 𝑃(𝑅)
1 4
4 R ( × )
2 5
= 23
5 45
18
= 23
1 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖(𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
𝐻𝐴
2 G
1
2 5 R
9
1 𝑇𝐵
2 7
9 G
2. Of a group of pupils studying at A-level in schools in a certain area, 56% are boys
1
and 44% are girls. The probability that a boy of this group is studying Chemistry is 5
1
and the probability that a girl of this group is studying Chemistry is 11.
a) Find the probability that a pupil selected at random from this group is a girl
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 61

b) Find the probability that a pupil selected at random from this group is not
c) Find the probability that a Chemistry pupil selected at random from this group is
male. [4]
SOLUTION
a) 𝑃(𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐶ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦)

= P(GC)
1
= (0.44 × 11)
1
= 25
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒
1
5 C
b) 𝑃(𝑝𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐶ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦)
= 𝑃(𝐵𝐶 ) + 𝑃(𝐺𝐶 )
4 10
= (0.56 × 5) + (0.44 × 11)
106
= 125
B 4
0.56 𝐶 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟓(𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
5
1
𝑃(𝑀∩𝐶)
11 C c) 𝑃( 𝑀 ∣ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐶)
1
(0.56× )
5
= 106
1−
0.44 G 125
10 𝐶
𝟏𝟒
= 𝟏𝟗
11
= 𝟎. 𝟕𝟒(𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 62

3. In each round of a certain game a player can score 1, 2, or 3 only. Copy and complete
the table which shows the scores and two of the respective probabilities of these
being scored in a single round.
Score 1 2 3
4 1
Probability 7 7
Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible total scores and their respective
probabilities after a player has completed two rounds.
Find the probability that a player has
a) a score of 4 after two rounds, [3]

b) an odd number score after two rounds. [4]
SOLUTION
Score 1 2 3
4 2 1
Probability 7 7 7
3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4
1 2 3
a) 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑓 4 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑠) = 𝑃{(1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3) + (2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2) + (3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1)}

4 1 2 2 1 4
= (7 × 7) + (7 × 7) + (7 × 7)
𝟏𝟐
= 𝟒𝟗
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 63

b) 𝑃(𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑠) = 𝑃(1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2) + (2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1) + (2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3) +
(3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2)}
4 2 2 1
= 2 (7 × 7) + 2 (7 × 7)
𝟐𝟎
= 𝟒𝟗
4. For a certain strain of flower, the probability that, when sown, a seed produces a
1
plant with yellow flowers is 6. Find the minimum number of seeds that should be
sown in order that the probability of obtaining at least one plant with yellow flowers
is greater than 0.98. [5]
SOLUTION
1
𝑃(𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟) =
6
𝑁𝑜𝑤, 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(< 1) > 0.98
5 𝑛
= 1 − ( ) > 0.98
6
5 1
= −( ) 𝑛 > −
6 50
5 𝑛 1
=( ) <
6 50
5 𝑛 1
= ln {( ) } < ln ( )
6 50
5 1
= 𝑛𝐼𝑛 ( ) < 𝐼𝑛 ( )
6 50
1
𝐼𝑛( )
50
=𝑛> 5
𝐼𝑛(6)
= 𝟐𝟏. 𝟒𝟓𝟔𝟕𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟔
≈ 𝟐𝟐 𝒔𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒔
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 64

5. A coin is biased so that the probability that it falls showing tails is 0.75.
a) Find the probability of obtaining at least one head when the coin is tossed five
times. [3]
b) How many times must the coin be tossed so that the probability of obtaining at
least one head is greater than 0.98? [4]
SOLUTION
a) 𝑃( 𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = 0.75
𝑁𝑜𝑤, 𝑛 = 5
𝐴𝑛𝑑 𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑) = 1 − 0.75 = 0.25
∴ 𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 1)

= 1 − {(0.75)5 }
781
=
1024
= 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔𝟐𝟔𝟗𝟓𝟑𝟏𝟐𝟓
= 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔(𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
b) 𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑) > 0.98
𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒, 𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑) =

781
, 𝑤𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑛 𝑠𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡;
1024
1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 1) > 0.98

781 𝑛
=1−( ) > 0.98
1024
781 𝑛
=( ) < 0.02
1024
781
= 𝑛 ln ( ) < ln(0.02)
1024
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 65

𝑙𝑛(0.02)
=𝑛> 781
𝑙𝑛(1024)
= 𝟏𝟒. 𝟒𝟒𝟏𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟐𝟒
≈ 𝟏𝟓
6. A missile is fired at a target and the probability that the target is hit is 0.7.
a) Find how many missiles should be fired so that the target is hit at least once is
greater than 0.995. [4]
b) Find how many missiles should be fired so that the probability that the target is
not hit is less than 0.001. [4]
SOLUTION
a) 𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑠 ℎ𝑖𝑡) = 0.7

𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑠 ℎ𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒) > 0.995
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) > 0.995
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 1) > 0.995
= 𝐼𝑛(0.3)𝑛 < 𝐼𝑛(0.005)
= 𝑛 𝐼𝑛(0.3) < 𝐼𝑛(0.005)
𝐼𝑛(0.005)
=𝑛>
𝐼𝑛(0.3)
𝑛 > 4.400695221
𝒏≈𝟓
b) 𝑃(𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑡 ) < 0.001

(0.3)𝑛 < 0.001
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 66

= ln(0.3)𝑛 < ln(0.001)
= 𝑛𝐼𝑛(0.3) < 𝐼𝑛(0.001)
𝐼𝑛(0.001)
=𝑛>
𝐼𝑛(0.3)
= 𝑛 > 5.737467868
𝒏≈𝟔

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 67

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 6
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. A die is biased so that the probability of obtaining a three is 𝑝. When the die is
thrown four times the probability that there is at least one three is 0.9375. Find the
value of 𝑝. [5]
How many times the die should be thrown so that the probability that there are no
threes is less than 0.03. [5]
SOLUTION
𝑃(𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 ) = 𝑝, 𝐴𝑛𝑑 𝑛 = 4

𝑃( 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒) = 0.9375
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 0.9375
1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 1) = 0.9375
𝑝4 = 0.0625
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 68

1 1
𝑝4(4) = (0.0625)4
𝟏
∴𝒑=
𝟐
1 1
∴ 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 ) = 1 − = , 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑘𝑛𝑜𝑤𝑛, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛;
2 2
𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 ) < 0.03

1 𝑛
( ) < 0.03
2
1 𝑛
ln ( ) < ln(0.03)
2
1
𝑛𝐼𝑛( ) < 𝐼𝑛(0.03)
2
𝐼𝑛(0.03)
𝑛> 1
𝐼𝑛( )
2
𝑛 > 5.058893689
𝒏≈𝟔
throw a four wins. A and B take it in turns to throw the die, starting with A. Find the
SOLUTION
1
𝑃(𝑎 𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠) =
6
𝑁𝑜𝑤, 𝑃(𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑜𝑤 ) =

𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑜𝑤
5 1
=( × )
6 6
5 5 5
𝐴𝑙𝑠𝑜, 𝐵 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑜𝑤 = ( × × ×
6 6 6
1
) … 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠
6
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 69

1 5 5 3 5 5
𝑆𝑜 𝑤𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑡, ( + ( ) + ( ) + ⋯ )
6 6 6 6
5 5 3 5 5
𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔; ( + ( ) + ( ) + ⋯ ) 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦
6 6 6
5 5 2
𝑊𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 , 𝑎 = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟 = ( )
6 6
𝑎
𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒, 𝑆∞ =
1−𝑟
5
6
∴ 𝑆∞ = 5 2
1−( )
6
30
=
11
1 30
𝑁𝑜𝑤, ( )
6 11
𝟓
=
𝟏𝟏
= (𝟎. 𝟒𝟓)𝟐𝒔. 𝒇
3. A box contains five black balls and one white ball. Alan and Bill take turn to draw a
ball from the box, starting with Alan. The first boy to draw the white ball wins the
game.
Assuming that they do not replace the balls as they draw them out, find the
probability that Bill wins the game. [4]
If the game is changed, so that, in the new game, they replace each ball after it has
been drawn out, find the probabilities that:
a) Alan wins at his first attempt; [3]

b) Alan wins at his second attempt; [3]
c) Alan wins at his third attempt. [3]
Show that these answers are terms in Geometric Progression. Hence find the
probability that Alan wins the new game. [3]
SOLUTION
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 70

𝑃(𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤) = 𝑃(𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑤 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤) = (𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑓 𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑤 )

𝑃(𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤) = (𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑓 𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑓 𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑤 )
5 1 5 4 3 1 5 4 3 2 1 1
= ( × ) + ( × × × ) + ( × × × × × 1) =
6 5 6 5 4 3 6 5 4 3 2 2
𝟏
a) 𝑃(𝐴𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡 ) =
𝟔
b) 𝑃(𝐴𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡 ) = 𝑃(𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑓 𝐴𝑤 )

5 5 1
= × ×
6 6 6
𝟐𝟓
=
𝟐𝟏𝟔
c) 𝑃(𝐴𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡 ) = 𝑃(𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑓 𝐴𝑓 𝐵𝑓 𝐴𝑤 )

5 5 5 5 1
= × × × ×
6 6 6 6 6
𝟔𝟐𝟓
=
𝟕𝟕𝟕𝟔
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠, ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑡 ′ 𝑠𝑎 𝐺𝑒𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛;

1 5 2 5 4
(1 + ( ) + ( ) + ⋯ )
6 6 6
5 2 5 4
𝑇𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔; (1 + ( ) + ( ) + ⋯ ) 𝑤𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒;
6 6
5 2
∴ 𝑎 = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟 = ( )
6
𝑎
𝑆∞ =
1−𝑟
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 71

1
= 5 2
1−( )
6
36
=
11
1 36
∴ 𝑃(𝐴𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒) = ( )
6 11
𝟔
=
𝟏𝟏
4. A die is thrown three times. What is the probability of scoring a two on just one
occasion? [3]
SOLUTION
1
𝑛 = 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑡𝑤𝑜) =
6
1 1 5 2
∴ 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑜𝑛 𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛) = 31𝐶 × ( ) × ( )
6 6
𝟐𝟓
=
𝟕𝟐
5. A coin is tossed four times. Find the probability of obtaining less than two heads. [4]
SOLUTION
1
𝑛 = 4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑡𝑤𝑜) =
2
𝑃(𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑡𝑤𝑜 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑋 < 2)

1 0 1 4 1 1 1 3
= ( 40𝐶 × ( ) × ( ) ) + ( 41𝐶 × ( ) × ( ) )
2 2 2 2
𝟓
=
𝟏𝟔
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 72

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 73

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 7
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. A school selects 55% of its lower sixth pupils from its own O level pupils and the
remainder comes from other schools. It is established that 90% of accepted A-level
students who did their O-level outside the school pass their A-level studies, and that
70% of those who did their O-level studies at the school pass their A-level studies. A
pupil is selected at random from the recent A-level graduate of the school.
Find the probability that the pupil,

iii) passes A-level studies, [5]
iv) did O-level outside the school, given that the pupil passes A-level
studies… [3]
SOLUTION
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 74

P
0.7
O
0.55
0.3 𝑃̅
0.9 P
𝑂̅
0.45
0.1 𝑃̅
i) 𝑃(𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝐴 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑂𝑃) + 𝑃(𝑂̅𝑂)

= (0.55 × 0.7) + (0.45 × 0.9)
= 𝟎. 𝟕𝟗
̅
𝑃(𝑂 ∣𝑃)
ii) 𝑃( 𝑂̅ ∣ 𝑃 ) = 𝑃(𝑃)
(0.45×0.9)
= 0.79
81
= 158
= 𝟎. 𝟓𝟏(𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 75

2. Three tickets for a musical show are sent to a high school musical club. Fifteen girls
and ten boys would like a ticket. If the three people to receive a ticket are chosen at
random, find the probability that they will be
i) exactly 2 boys, [4]

ii) at least 2 girls. [4]
SOLUTION
i) 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 = (15 + 10) = 25

𝑛 (𝑆 ) = 25
3𝐶 = 2 300
10
𝑛(𝐸 ) − 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 2 𝑏𝑜𝑦𝑠 = 2𝐶 × 151𝐶 = 675
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑁𝑜𝑤, 𝑃(𝐸 ) =
𝑛(𝑆)
675
=
2 300
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟗(𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
ii) 𝑛(𝐸 ) − 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 2 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠 = ( 152𝐶 × 101𝐶 ) + ( 153𝐶 × 100𝐶 ) = 1 505

𝑛(𝑆) = 2 300
1 505
𝑃 (𝐸 ) =
2 300
= 𝟎. 𝟔𝟓(𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
3. The meteorological department of a certain country adopts a simple model the

weather in which each day is classified as either fine or rainy. The probability that a
fine day is followed by another fine day is 0.8. The probability that a rainy day is
followed by a fine day is 0.4. The probability that 1 February is fine is 0.75. Using a
tree diagram or otherwise , find the probability that
a) the 3rd February is fine, [4]

b) the 1st February was rainy given that 3rd February is fine. [4]
SOLUTION
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 76

NB: 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝐒𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐄𝐒 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒕𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝟒 𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑁𝑜. 2 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠
a) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟖
b) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏
4. Two tetrahedral dice with faces marked 0, 1, 2, and 3, are thrown and the number
on which each lands on is noted. The score is the sum of the 2 numbers. By means of
an outcome table or otherwise, find the probability that
i) the score is a prime number, [4]

ii) one die lands on a 3 given that the score is a prime number. [3]
SOLUTION
3 3 4 5 6
2 2 3 4 5
1 1 2 3 4
0 0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
9
i) 𝑃( 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) =
16
= 𝟎. 𝟓𝟔(𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
ii) 𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑎 3 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟)
4
( )
16
= 9
( )
16
4
=
9
= 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒(𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
5. a) If E1 and E2 are any two events, explain what is meant by
i) E1 and E2 are independent, [1]

ii) E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive. [1]
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 77

c) In the who, what or where game, three contestants each chooses one of the
three categories of a question. Assuming that the contestants chooses
independently and that they are equally likely to select any of the categories,
find the probability that
i) all will choose different categories, [3]
ii) two will be alike and the third different. [4]
SOLUTION
a) (i) Events E1 and E2 can occur without being affected by the other.
(ii) Events E1 and E2 cannot occur at the same time.
1 3
b) (i) 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠) = ( ) × 3!
3
𝟐
=
𝟗
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟐(𝟐𝐬. 𝐟)
(ii) 𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 ) = 1 −

[𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 + 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠)]
1 3 1 3 1 3 1
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠) = ( ) + ( ) + ( ) =
3 3 3 9
2 1
∴ 𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 ) = 1 − { + }
9 9
𝟐
=
𝟑
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 78

6. Three flower vendors X, Y and Z have equal chances of selling their flowers. X has 80
red and 20 white flowers, Y has 30 red and 40 white flowers and Z has 10 red and
60 white flowers. On Valentine’s Day, Kudzai wants to buy a flower.
(a) Find the probability that she picks a red flower. [3]
(b) Given that she bought a red flower, find the probability that it came from Y. [3]
SOLUTION
NB: 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝐒𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐄𝐒 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒕𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝟓 𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑁𝑜. 1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠
a) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 0.46
b) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 0.31

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 79

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 8
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. A box contains three fuses, one good and two defective. Two fuses are drawn in
sequence without replacement. Calculate the probability that
a) the second fuse drawn is defective, [4]

b) the second fuse drawn is defective if the first is defective. [4]
SOLUTION
𝟐
a) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 𝟑
𝟏
b) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 𝟐
2. A building society gives both adjustable-rate mortgage and fixed-rate mortgages on

residential property. It breaks residential property into three categories: low
density houses, high density houses and blocks of flats. The following table give
probabilities appropriate to this situation.
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 80

Low density high density blocks of flats
Adjustable rate 0.285 0.240 0.100
Fixed rate 0.115 0.200 0.600

i) the building society gives a mortgage for a low density property, [2]
ii) the building society gives a mortgage for a low density property to each of the
four people who are first to apply, [3]
iii) a mortgage is adjustable-rate given that it is for low density property. [3]
SOLUTION
i) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 𝟎. 𝟒
ii) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟔
iii) 𝐴𝑛𝑠. = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟑
3. A fair die is tossed three times. Find the probability that
i) exactly one six is obtained, [3]

ii) the first score is even, the second is odd and the third is either a one or a
two. [4]
SOLUTION
i) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟓
ii) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟑
4. During the 2010 World Cup in a certain city, the probability that there was
1
electricity on any particular day was 3 . In the case that there was no electricity, a
generator would be switched on. Independently, the probability that john watched a
1
soccer match being screened live was 4 .
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 81

a) Represent the information by means of a tree diagram. [2]
b) Given that John watched a soccer match, find the probability that there was no
electricity. [4]
SOLUTION
a) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = (𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐦)
𝟐
b) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = 𝟑
5. A bag contains 24 counters of which 6 are red, 8 are green and 10 are yellow. Three
counters are taken from the bag at random without replacement.
56
i) Show that the probability that 2 of the counters taken are green is 253. [2]
ii) Given that 2 of the counters are green, find the probability that the first
counter taken is red. [3]
SOLUTION
i) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = (𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰)
𝟏
ii) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = 𝟖
6. Bag A contains 3 red balls and 2 white balls. Bag B contains 2 red balls and 3 white
balls. A bag is selected at random and the two balls are drawn from it, one after the
other without replacement.
a) Find the probability that the two balls drawn are red. [3]
b) Given that the two balls are red, find the probability that they are from bag A. [4]
S0LUTION
𝟏
a) 𝑨𝒏𝒔. = 𝟓
𝟑
b) 𝑨𝒏𝒔. = 𝟒
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7. A student prepares for an examination by studying a list of 10 questions. The
student can solve 6 of them. For the examination, the teacher selects 5 questions at
random from the list of 10 questions. Find the probability that the student can solve
all the 5 questions in the examination. [4]
SOLUTION
𝟏
𝑨𝒏𝒔. =
𝟒𝟐

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 83

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 9
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. A and B play against each other in a game. Each result is either a win for A or a win
for B. The probability of A winning the first game is 0.6. If A wins a particular game,
the probability of winning the next game is 0.7. If A loses a particular game, the
probability of winning the next game is 0.4. Find the probability that
i) A loses the second game, [2]

ii) A wins the first game, given that A loses the second game. [3]
SOLUTION
0.7 W
0.6 W
0.3 𝑊
0.4 W
0.4 𝑊
0.6 𝑊
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a) P(A loses the second game) = P(WW) + P(WW)
= (0.6 × 0.3) + (0.4 × 0.6)
𝟐𝟏
= 𝟓𝟎
P(W∩W ̅̅̅)
b) P( W ∣ W ) = ̅̅̅
P(W)
(0.6×0.3)
= 0.42
𝟑
=𝟕
2. The head of a school wishes to contact parents of learners. She could use e-mail,
letter or cell phone with probabilities 0.4, 0.1 and 0.5 respectively. She uses only one
of the methods. The probabilities of parents receiving the messages if the head uses
e-mail, letter or cell phone are 0.6, 0.8 and 1 respectively.
a) Find the probability that the parents receive the message. [2]
b) Given that the parents receives the message, find the probability that they
received it via e-mail. [3]
SOLUTION
R
0.6
E
0.4 0.4 𝑅̅
R
0.8
0.1
L
0.2 𝑅̅
1 R
0.5
C
0
𝑅̅
a) P(parents receive the message) = P(ER) + P(LR) + P(CR)
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 85

= (0.4 × 0.6) + (0.1 × 0.8) + (0.5 × 1)
𝟒𝟏
= 𝟓𝟎
P(E∩R)
b) P( E ∣ R ) = P(R)
(0.4×0.6)
= 0.82
𝟏𝟐
= 𝟒𝟏
3. a) Julius Caesar is one of the novels in a collection of 20 novels. A learner is going to

choose 5 of these novels to take for the holiday. Find the
i) number of ways the learner can choose the 5 books, [3]

ii) number of choices that will include Julius Caesar. [3]
SOLUTION
20
i) 5𝐶 = 𝟏𝟓 𝟓𝟎𝟒 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
1
ii) 1𝐶 × 194𝐶 = 𝟑 𝟖𝟕𝟔 𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬
c) Find the number of ways 3 boys and 4 girls can stand in a line if:
i) there are no restrictions, [2]

ii) the boys stand next to each other. [3]
SOLUTION
i) 7! = 𝟓 𝟎𝟒𝟎 𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬
ii) Treat 3 boys as 1 person, ∴ we have 5 people and can stand in a line in;
But 3 boys can be arranged in 3! ways
∴ 𝟑! 𝟓! = 𝟕𝟐𝟎 𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬
4. a) State the difference between a permutation and a combination. [3]
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 86

b) Two fuses are selected simultaneously and at random from a packet containing 5
good and 3 faulty fuses. Find the number of ways of selecting
i) the 2 fuses from the packet, [3]

ii) one good and one faulty from the packet. [3]
iii) Hence or otherwise find the probability that exactly one faulty fuse is
selected. [3]
SOLUTION
a) A permutation is an arrangement where order is important.

A combination is an arrangement where order is not important.
b) (i) 𝟖𝟐𝑪 = 𝟐𝟖 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔

(ii) 𝟓𝟏𝑪 × 𝟑𝟏𝑪 = 𝟏𝟓 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
𝟏𝟓
(iii) 𝑷(𝒆𝒙𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒍𝒚 𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒇𝒂𝒖𝒍𝒕𝒚 𝒇𝒖𝒔𝒆 𝒊𝒔 𝒔𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅) = 𝟐𝟖
5. Wherever there is a power cut, a school is equally likely to switch on one of its 3
generators A, B or C. On any given day, the independent probabilities of a
breakdown are, 0.2 for A, 0.3 for B and 0.25 for C.
a) Show the above information by a means of a tree diagram. [2]

b) For a randomly chosen day, when there was a power cut, find the probability
i) there was a generator breakdown, [2]
ii) given that there was a generator break down, then it was generator C. [3]
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 87

SOLUTION
B
a)
0.2
1 A
3 0.8 𝐵̅
B
0.3
1
3 B
0.7
0.25 𝐵̅
B
1
C
3
0.75 𝐵̅
𝟏
b) (i) 𝑨𝒏𝒔. = 𝟒
𝟏
(ii) 𝑨𝒏𝒔. = 𝟑
(𝑭𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒄𝒆𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒆 𝒐𝒏 𝑸𝒏 𝟐)
2
6. Two fifths ( ) of the teaching staff of a college are female. The probability that a
5
female staff is absent on any Tuesday is 0.32 and that of a male staff is 0.08. Find the
probability that on a particular Tuesday,
a) member of the teaching staff is absent, [2]

b) female is absent , given that one member of the teaching staff is absent. [3]
NB: 𝐹𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑄𝑛 2
𝟐𝟐
a) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = 𝟏𝟐𝟓
𝟖
b) 𝐀𝐧𝐬. = 𝟏𝟏
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 88

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 89

A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 10
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. Four letters are chosen at random the word DARLING. Find the probability that
a) exactly 2 consonants are chosen, [2]

b) at least 3 consonants are chosen. [4]
SOLUTION
a) 𝑛(𝑆) = 74𝐶 = 35
𝑛(𝐸) ∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 2 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑛 = 22𝐶 × 52𝐶 = 10
10
𝑃(𝐸) = 35
𝟐
=𝟕
b) 𝑛(𝐸) ∗ 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 3 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑛 = ( 53𝐶 × 21𝐶 ) + ( 54𝐶 × 20𝐶 )

= 25
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𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑛(𝑆)
25
= 35
𝟓
=𝟕
2. In a group of 40 students all of whom are studying Statistics or Pure Mathematics or

both, 20 are studying Statistics and 30 are studying Pure Mathematics.
a) Illustrate the information on a Venn diagram. [2]

b) Find the probability that a student chosen at random is
i) studying Statistics and Pure Mathematics, [3]
ii) studying Pure Mathematics but not Statistics. [3]
SOLUTION
a)
Statistics Pure Mathematics
20 − 𝑥 𝑥 30 − 𝑥
b) (i) 20 − 𝑥 + 𝑥 + 30 − 𝑥 = 40
∴ 𝑥 = 10
10
𝑃(𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑀𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠) = 40
𝟏
=𝟒
30−10
(ii) 𝑃(𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑀𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠) = 40
𝟏
=𝟐
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3. a) Find how many code numbers of three digits that can be made from using the
digits 1; 2; 3; 4 and 5, if the order of the digits is important and repetition is
i) permitted, [3]
ii) not permitted. [3]
b). At a certain school the probability that a learner passes Advanced Level is 0.8
and the probability that the learner proceeds to Tertiary Education is 0.9. The
corresponding probability that a learner who fails Advanced Level does not
proceed to Tertiary Education is 0.4.
i) Find the probability that a learner proceeds to Tertiary Education. [3]
ii) Given that the learner proceeds to Tertiary Education calculate the
probability that the leaner fails Advanced Level. [4]
SOLUTION
a) (i) 𝟓𝟏𝑪 × 𝟓𝟏𝑪 × 𝟓𝟏𝑪 = 𝟏𝟐𝟓
(ii) 𝟓𝟑𝑷 = 𝟔𝟎
𝟐𝟏
b) (i) 𝑨𝒏𝒔. = 𝟐𝟓
𝟏
(ii) 𝑨𝒏𝒔. = 𝟕
NB: 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝐒𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐄𝐒 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒕𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝟒 𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑁𝑜. 2 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠
throw a four wins. A and B take it in turns to throw the die, starting with A. find the
SOLUTION
NB: 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝐒𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐄𝐒 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒕𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝟔 𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑁𝑜. 2 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠
𝟓
𝑨𝒏𝒔. = 𝟏𝟏
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 92

6
5. The probability that for a married couple the husband has a degree is 10 and the
1
probability that the wife has a degree is 2 . The probability that the husband has a
11
degree, given that the wife has a degree, is 12.
A married couple is chosen at random.
a) both of them have degrees, [3]

b) only one of them has a degree, [3]
c) neither of them has a degree. [3]
SOLUTION
6
𝑃(ℎ𝑢𝑠𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒) =
10
1
𝑃(𝑤𝑖𝑓𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒) =
2
11
𝑃(ℎ𝑢𝑠𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒, 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑓𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒) =
12
a) 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠);

𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒;
𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ∩𝑊𝑑 )
𝑃( 𝐻𝑑 ∣ 𝑊𝑑 ) =
𝑃(𝑊𝑑 )
11 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ∩𝑊𝑑 )
= 1
12
2
11 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ∩ 𝑊𝑑 ) = ( × )
12 2
𝟏𝟏
=
𝟐𝟒
b) 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ) = 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ) − 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ∩ 𝑊𝑑 )

6 11
= −
10 24
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17
=
120
𝑃(𝑊𝑑 ) = 𝑃(𝑊𝑑 ) − 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ∩ 𝑊𝑑 )

1 11
= −
2 24
1
=
24
𝟏𝟕 𝟏 𝟏𝟏
∴ 𝑷(𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚 𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒎 𝒉𝒂𝒔 𝒂 𝒅𝒆𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒆) = ( + )=
𝟏𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟒 𝟔𝟎
c) 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒) = 𝐻𝑢𝑠𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑊𝑖𝑓𝑒

𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ∪ 𝑊𝑑 ) = 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ) + 𝑃(𝑊𝑑 ) − 𝑃(𝐻𝑑 ∩ 𝑊𝑑 )
6 1 11
=( )+( ) −( )
10 2 24
77
=
120
77
∴ 𝑃(𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒) = 1 −
120
𝟒𝟑
=
𝟏𝟐𝟎

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
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A’ LEVEL
STATISTICS
PROBABILITY TEST 11
SOLUTION
Sharewell B. C
1. A personal stereo system consist of a playing unit and a headphone unit. Each unit is
tested for faults. If a unit is found to be faulty, an attempt is made to correct the
faulty and the unit is then retested. Any unit that is found to be faulty a second time
is rejected.
a) The probability of a randomly chosen playing unit being found to be faulty on

the first test is 0.1. If the second test is needed, the probability of a playing unit
being found to be faulty on the second test is 0.05.
i) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen playing unit is

rejected. [4]
ii) Given that a playing unit is accepted, calculate the probability that a fault
was found on the first test. Give your answer correct to three significant
figures. [5]
b) The probability of a randomly chosen headphone unit being found to be faulty

on the first test is 0.04. If a second test is needed, the probability of a headphone
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 95

unit being found to be faulty on the second test is 0.02. Calculate the probability
that a randomly chosen headphone unit is accepted. Give your answer correct to
three significant figures. [5]
SOLUTION
a)
0.05 F
F
0.1
0.95 𝐹̅
0.1 F
0.9
𝐹̅ 0.9
𝐹̅
i) P(playing unit is rejected) = P(FF)

= (0.1 × 0.05)
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓
ii) P(playing unit is accepted) = 1 − 0.005

= 0.995
P(F∩F)
P( F ∣ F̅ ) = P(F)
(0.1×0.95)
= 0.995
19
= 199
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟓𝟓
b) P(headphone unit is accepted) = 1 − (0.04)(0.02)

1249
= 1250
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 96

= 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟗
2. A bag contains four red counters, three blue counters and three green counters. A
counter is drawn at random from the bag and not replaced. A second counter is then
drawn at random from the bag.
Assuming that at each stage each counter left in the bag has an equal chance of being
drawn,
a) find the probability, giving your answer as a fraction in their lowest terms, that
the second counter will be blue given that
i) the first counter is red, [4]

ii) the first counter id blue, [4]
iii) the first counter is green. [4]
b) Find the probability, giving your answer as a fraction in its lowest terms, that the
first counter will be red and the second counter will be blue. [5]
c) Find the probability, giving your answer as a faction in is lowest terms, that the
second counter will be blue regardless of the color of the first counter. [5]
SOLUTION
a)
3 R
9
3 B
4 9
R
10 3 G
3
9
R
9
3 2 B
10 B 9
3 4 G
9 9 R
3
3
10 G B
9
2 G
9
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 97

𝑃(𝐵∩𝑅)
i) 𝑁𝑜𝑤, 𝑃( 𝐵 ∣ 𝑅 ) = 𝑃(𝑅)
1
(0.4× )
3
= 0.4
𝟏
=𝟑
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐵)
ii) 𝑃( 𝐵 ∣ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐵)
3 2
( × )
10 9
= 3
10
𝟐
=𝟗
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐺)
iii) 𝑃( 𝐵 ∣ 𝐺 ) = 𝑃(𝐺)
3 3
( × )
10 9
= 3
10
𝟏
=𝟑
b) 𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒)
4 3
= (10 × 9)
𝟐
= 𝟏𝟓
c) 𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟)
4 3 3 2 3 3
= (10 × 9) + (10 × 9) + (10 × 9)
𝟑
= 𝟏𝟎
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 98

3. Newton babies are routinely screened for a serious disease which affects only two
per 1000 babies. The result of screening can be positive or negative. A positive
result suggest the baby has the disease, but the test is not perfect. If a baby has the
disease, the probability that the result is negative is 0.01. If the baby doe not have
the disease, the probability that the result will be positive is 0.02.
Find the probability that a baby has the disease, given that the result of the test is
positive. [7]
SOLUTION
0.01 N
2 𝑃𝐷
1000
0.99 N
P
0.02
998 𝑃̅𝐷′
1000
0.98 P
𝑃(𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑃𝐷 ∩ 𝑁) + 𝑃(𝑃̅𝐷′ ∩ 𝑃)

2 998
= (1000 × 0.99) + (1000 × 0.02)
1097
= 50000
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 99

𝑃(𝑃𝐷 ∩𝑁 )
∴ 𝑃( 𝑃𝐷 ∣ 𝑁 ) = 𝑃(𝑃)
2
( ×0.99)
1000
= 1097
50000
𝟗𝟗
= 𝟏𝟎𝟗𝟕

AND ASSISTANCE!
Sharewell B. C
NB: If you click any of the links below and it fails to direct you straight to
the respective group, then first copy the whole link of any group and,
place it in any WhatsApp/Telegram chat/group, then click again and join!
WhatsApp group 1 link: https://chat.whatsapp.com/J3aylX2aHrMAdZF71Ehq5U
WhatsApp group 2 link: https://chat.whatsapp.com/BmwI8owy2CVDBLl1RnJy0w
WhatsApp group 3 link: https://chat.whatsapp.com/ILPsSpcbjLjAQ89xvqnm7c
Telegram group link: t.me/shareALstatistics
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 100

Complied and typed by Sharerwell B. Chingwingwi (Share)
+263784089807
schingwingwi7@gmail.com
[@2022]
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 101

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 102
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 103
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 104
@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 105

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A’ LEVEL

ii) it is neither green nor yellow,

iii) it is not yellow,

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 1

a) Use Shares data to calculate the probability of obtaining a tail. [4]

3. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing card.

a) Find the probability that the card drawn is

i) the four of spades,

ii) the four of spades or any diamond,

during the first week of September.

a) Find the probability that the person

i) passed the driving test,

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 2

FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS, CLARIFICATIONS

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 3

a) the sum of the two dice is 3,

b) the sum of the two dice exceeds 9,

c) the two dice show the same number,

d) the numbers on the two dice differ by more than 2. [10]

probability that the number 𝑛 will be obtained.

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 4

Find 𝑃(𝐵). [4]

Fault not Fault

A component is chosen at random from those tested.

a) Find the probability that the chosen

ii) is a faulty component from machine C,

iii) is not faulty or is from machine A, [9]

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 5

6. Differentiate between a mutually exclusive event and an independent event. [4]

7. Give one condition of an exhaustive event. [1]

FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS, CLARIFICATIONS

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 6

𝐵exhaustive events? [4]

person chosen at random from this group

a) has a hot breakfast and a hot lunch, [3]

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 7

the probability that a person chosen at random

a) owns a dog or a cat, [3]

b) owns a dog or a cat, but not both, [4]

c) owns a dog, given that he owns a cat, [3]

d) does not a cat, given that he owns a dog. [4]

i) Find the probability that Sam gets a cup of coffee. [3]

bus is not on time. [4]

hot chocolate he always has milk in it.

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 8

drink has milk in it. [4]

FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS, CLARIFICATIONS

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 9

a) a referee is chosen from each continent, [3]

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 10

3. A sailing completion between two boats, A and B, consist of a series of independent

the weather for the first race was rough, [3]

The player plays three games.

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 11

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 12

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 13

Find the probability that a player has

a) a score of 4 after two rounds, [3]

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 14

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 15

@ 2022 [SHARE] +263784089807 Res: MUTARE 16

a) Alan wins at his first attempt; [3]

FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS, CLARIFICATIONS